2026-06-15 · 10 games · tap a row for the full breakdown
Batters to target tonight — ranked by the Target score: the model’s P(HR) likelihood blended with Matchup-Fit, Air/Park & Recent form. Higher Target = better overall HR bet. Tap a card for the why.
1 Juan Soto NYMvs Chase Burns RHP · CIN · P(HR) 29%Target91Matchup94Air/Park56Form87
1 Juan Soto NYM
vs Chase Burns RHP · CIN · P(HR) 29%
Target91
Matchup94
Air/Park56
Form87
Matchup-Fit · barrel alignment vs Chase Burns’s arsenal
4-Seam 60% usedbarrels 21% · allows 3% · 5 HR
Slider 27% usedbarrels 22% · allows 5% · 1 HR
Change 11% usedbarrels 14% · allows 7% · 1 HR
Air / Park · can he get it out here
Pulls 19% of contact in the air; pull side RF here — park HR factor ×1.08 → park+wind fits his pull power.
Recent form · last 5 games
Barrel 12% · EV 91 · 2 HR over his last 5.
2 Hunter Goodman COLvs Shota Imanaga LHP · CHC · P(HR) 29%Target91Matchup83Air/Park98Form77
2 Hunter Goodman COL
vs Shota Imanaga LHP · CHC · P(HR) 29%
Target91
Matchup83
Air/Park98
Form77
Matchup-Fit · barrel alignment vs Shota Imanaga’s arsenal
4-Seam 47% usedbarrels 7% · allows 12% · 2 HR
Splitter 39% usedbarrels — · allows 6%
Sweeper 9% usedbarrels — · allows — · 1 HR
Air / Park · can he get it out here
Pulls 33% of contact in the air; pull side LF here — park HR factor ×1.20 → park+wind fits his pull power.
Recent form · last 5 games
Barrel 9% · EV 90 · 2 HR over his last 5.
3 Max Muncy LADvs Nick Martinez RHP · LAD · P(HR) 29%Target90Matchup86Air/Park92Form73
3 Max Muncy LAD
vs Nick Martinez RHP · LAD · P(HR) 29%
Target90
Matchup86
Air/Park92
Form73
Matchup-Fit · barrel alignment vs Nick Martinez’s arsenal
Change 27% usedbarrels 4% · allows 0% · 1 HR
Cutter 24% usedbarrels 25% · allows 2% · 3 HR
4-Seam 22% usedbarrels 8% · allows 18% · 6 HR
Sinker 13% usedbarrels 13% · allows 3% · 1 HR
Curve 10% usedbarrels 12% · allows 12%
Air / Park · can he get it out here
Pulls 28% of contact in the air; pull side RF here — park HR factor ×1.18 × wind out to RF (9 mph) ×1.03 → net ×1.22 → park+wind fits his pull power.
Recent form · last 5 games
Barrel 8% · EV 87 · 2 HR over his last 5.
4 Ian Happ CHCvs Michael Lorenzen RHP · CHC · P(HR) 27%Target90Matchup98Air/Park95Form64
4 Ian Happ CHC
vs Michael Lorenzen RHP · CHC · P(HR) 27%
Target90
Matchup98
Air/Park95
Form64
Matchup-Fit · barrel alignment vs Michael Lorenzen’s arsenal
Change 26% usedbarrels 4% · allows 7%
4-Seam 25% usedbarrels 21% · allows 19% · 5 HR
Curve 15% usedbarrels 12% · allows 8%
Cutter 14% usedbarrels 25% · allows 5% · 2 HR
Sinker 11% usedbarrels 40% · allows 0% · 1 HR
Air / Park · can he get it out here
Pulls 28% of contact in the air; pull side RF here — park HR factor ×1.24 × wind out to RF (10 mph) ×1.03 → net ×1.28 → park+wind fits his pull power.
Recent form · last 5 games
Barrel 7% · EV 86 · 2 HR over his last 5.
5 Yordan Alvarez HOUvs Drew Anderson RHP · HOU · P(HR) 29%Target89Matchup80Air/Park83Form84
5 Yordan Alvarez HOU
vs Drew Anderson RHP · HOU · P(HR) 29%
Target89
Matchup80
Air/Park83
Form84
Matchup-Fit · barrel alignment vs Drew Anderson’s arsenal
4-Seam 43% usedbarrels 19% · allows 3% · 6 HR
Change 33% usedbarrels 8% · allows 0% · 1 HR
Curve 22% usedbarrels 25% · allows — · 3 HR
Air / Park · can he get it out here
Pulls 27% of contact in the air; pull side RF here — park HR factor ×1.05 → park+wind neutral fit.
Recent form · last 5 games
Barrel 11% · EV 89 · 2 HR over his last 5.
6 Jonathan Aranda TBvs Eric Lauer LHP · LAD · P(HR) 27%Target86Matchup93Air/Park66Form57
6 Jonathan Aranda TB
vs Eric Lauer LHP · LAD · P(HR) 27%
Target86
Matchup93
Air/Park66
Form57
Matchup-Fit · barrel alignment vs Eric Lauer’s arsenal
4-Seam 52% usedbarrels 13% · allows 8%
Slider 20% usedbarrels 17% · allows 0% · 1 HR
Cutter 17% usedbarrels — · allows —
Curve 10% usedbarrels — · allows —
Air / Park · can he get it out here
Pulls 18% of contact in the air; pull side RF here — park HR factor ×1.18 × wind out to RF (9 mph) ×1.03 → net ×1.22 → park+wind fits his pull power.
Recent form · last 5 games
Barrel 6% · EV 91 · 0 HR over his last 5.
7 Pete Crow-Armstrong CHCvs Michael Lorenzen RHP · CHC · P(HR) 29%Target85Matchup73Air/Park93Form56
7 Pete Crow-Armstrong CHC
vs Michael Lorenzen RHP · CHC · P(HR) 29%
Target85
Matchup73
Air/Park93
Form56
Matchup-Fit · barrel alignment vs Michael Lorenzen’s arsenal
Change 26% usedbarrels 0% · allows 7%
4-Seam 25% usedbarrels 10% · allows 19% · 3 HR
Curve 15% usedbarrels 0% · allows 8%
Cutter 14% usedbarrels 0% · allows 5%
Sinker 11% usedbarrels 0% · allows 0%
Air / Park · can he get it out here
Pulls 27% of contact in the air; pull side RF here — park HR factor ×1.24 × wind out to RF (10 mph) ×1.03 → net ×1.28 → park+wind fits his pull power.
Recent form · last 5 games
Barrel 6% · EV 86 · 1 HR over his last 5.
8 Junior Caminero TBvs Eric Lauer LHP · LAD · P(HR) 29%Target84Matchup95Air/Park67Form0
8 Junior Caminero TB
vs Eric Lauer LHP · LAD · P(HR) 29%
Target84
Matchup95
Air/Park67
Form0
Matchup-Fit · barrel alignment vs Eric Lauer’s arsenal
4-Seam 45% usedbarrels 11% · allows 14% · 1 HR
Cutter 19% usedbarrels — · allows 7%
Curve 15% usedbarrels — · allows 0% · 1 HR
Change 13% usedbarrels 0% · allows 3%
Slider 7% usedbarrels 0% · allows 0%
Air / Park · can he get it out here
Pulls 20% of contact in the air; pull side LF here — park HR factor ×1.14 → park+wind fits his pull power.
Recent form · last 5 games
Barrel 0% · EV 98 · 1 HR over his last 5.
9 Freddie Freeman LADvs Nick Martinez RHP · LAD · P(HR) 28%Target84Matchup90Air/Park38Form62
9 Freddie Freeman LAD
vs Nick Martinez RHP · LAD · P(HR) 28%
Target84
Matchup90
Air/Park38
Form62
Matchup-Fit · barrel alignment vs Nick Martinez’s arsenal
Change 27% usedbarrels 4% · allows 0%
Cutter 24% usedbarrels 7% · allows 2%
4-Seam 22% usedbarrels 12% · allows 18% · 5 HR
Sinker 13% usedbarrels 0% · allows 3%
Curve 10% usedbarrels 12% · allows 12% · 2 HR
Air / Park · can he get it out here
Pulls 14% of contact in the air; pull side RF here — park HR factor ×1.18 × wind out to RF (9 mph) ×1.03 → net ×1.22 → park+wind fits his pull power.
Recent form · last 5 games
Barrel 7% · EV 87 · 1 HR over his last 5.
10 Michael Busch CHCvs Michael Lorenzen RHP · CHC · P(HR) 28%Target84Matchup78Air/Park55Form89
10 Michael Busch CHC
vs Michael Lorenzen RHP · CHC · P(HR) 28%
Target84
Matchup78
Air/Park55
Form89
Matchup-Fit · barrel alignment vs Michael Lorenzen’s arsenal
Change 26% usedbarrels 6% · allows 7%
4-Seam 25% usedbarrels 6% · allows 19% · 3 HR
Curve 15% usedbarrels — · allows 8%
Cutter 14% usedbarrels 8% · allows 5% · 1 HR
Sinker 11% usedbarrels 16% · allows 0% · 1 HR
Air / Park · can he get it out here
Pulls 16% of contact in the air; pull side RF here — park HR factor ×1.24 × wind out to RF (10 mph) ×1.03 → net ×1.28 → park+wind fits his pull power.
Recent form · last 5 games
Barrel 13% · EV 93 · 1 HR over his last 5.
11 Zach Neto LAAvs Ryne Nelson RHP · ARI · P(HR) 27%Target82Matchup98Air/Park91Form0
11 Zach Neto LAA
vs Ryne Nelson RHP · ARI · P(HR) 27%
Target82
Matchup98
Air/Park91
Form0
Matchup-Fit · barrel alignment vs Ryne Nelson’s arsenal
4-Seam 60% usedbarrels 19% · allows 9% · 4 HR
Slider 24% usedbarrels 4% · allows 6% · 1 HR
Cutter 8% usedbarrels 0% · allows —
Curve 6% usedbarrels — · allows —
Air / Park · can he get it out here
Pulls 29% of contact in the air; pull side LF here — park HR factor ×1.12 → park+wind fits his pull power.
Recent form · last 5 games
Barrel 0% · EV 88 · 0 HR over his last 5.
12 Spencer Torkelson DETvs Kai-Wei Teng RHP · HOU · P(HR) 21%Target82Matchup92Air/Park86Form91
12 Spencer Torkelson DET
vs Kai-Wei Teng RHP · HOU · P(HR) 21%
Target82
Matchup92
Air/Park86
Form91
Matchup-Fit · barrel alignment vs Kai-Wei Teng’s arsenal
Sweeper 45% usedbarrels 0% · allows 3%
4-Seam 25% usedbarrels 18% · allows 14% · 4 HR
Sinker 23% usedbarrels 5% · allows 0% · 3 HR
Curve 5% usedbarrels — · allows —
Air / Park · can he get it out here
Pulls 29% of contact in the air; pull side LF here — park HR factor ×0.99 → park+wind neutral fit.
Recent form · last 5 games
Barrel 14% · EV 88 · 2 HR over his last 5.
13 Kerry Carpenter DETvs Kai-Wei Teng RHP · HOU · P(HR) 21%Target81Matchup83Air/Park82Form97
13 Kerry Carpenter DET
vs Kai-Wei Teng RHP · HOU · P(HR) 21%
Target81
Matchup83
Air/Park82
Form97
Matchup-Fit · barrel alignment vs Kai-Wei Teng’s arsenal
Sweeper 45% usedbarrels — · allows 3% · 1 HR
4-Seam 25% usedbarrels 14% · allows 14% · 3 HR
Sinker 23% usedbarrels 0% · allows 0%
Curve 5% usedbarrels 0% · allows —
Air / Park · can he get it out here
Pulls 28% of contact in the air; pull side LF here — park HR factor ×0.99 → park+wind neutral fit.
Recent form · last 5 games
Barrel 20% · EV 91 · 1 HR over his last 5.
14 Mike Trout LAAvs Ryne Nelson RHP · ARI · P(HR) 27%Target80Matchup96Air/Park76Form0
14 Mike Trout LAA
vs Ryne Nelson RHP · ARI · P(HR) 27%
Target80
Matchup96
Air/Park76
Form0
Matchup-Fit · barrel alignment vs Ryne Nelson’s arsenal
4-Seam 60% usedbarrels 8% · allows 9% · 2 HR
Slider 24% usedbarrels 20% · allows 6% · 1 HR
Cutter 8% usedbarrels 20% · allows — · 3 HR
Curve 6% usedbarrels 25% · allows —
Air / Park · can he get it out here
Pulls 22% of contact in the air; pull side LF here — park HR factor ×1.12 → park+wind fits his pull power.
Recent form · last 5 games
Barrel 0% · EV 89 · 1 HR over his last 5.
15 Heriberto Hernández MIAvs Zack Wheeler RHP · PHI · P(HR) 24%Target80Matchup89Air/Park73Form68
15 Heriberto Hernández MIA
vs Zack Wheeler RHP · PHI · P(HR) 24%
Target80
Matchup89
Air/Park73
Form68
Matchup-Fit · barrel alignment vs Zack Wheeler’s arsenal
Sinker 37% usedbarrels 12% · allows 7% · 1 HR
4-Seam 31% usedbarrels 15% · allows — · 1 HR
Sweeper 26% usedbarrels 0% · allows 0% · 1 HR
Splitter 5% usedbarrels — · allows —
Air / Park · can he get it out here
Pulls 23% of contact in the air; pull side LF here — park HR factor ×1.05 → park+wind neutral fit.
Recent form · last 5 games
Barrel 8% · EV 98 · 1 HR over his last 5.
Likelihood-first board. Even the top plays hit ~1-in-5 — most miss by design. Confirm lineups & odds at lock; bet within your means.