Scoreboard — 2026-06-15

2026-06-15 · 10 games · tap a row for the full breakdown

How the daily pick lists are doing vs actual HRs — auto-graded nightly, 10 day(s) in. Tap a day to see who homered and which starters got taken deep.

Overall · 10 day(s)

Targets

blend: P(HR) × matchup

26%

39/150 HR · 2.0× exp

Model

raw model P(HR)

26%

39/150 HR · 2.0× exp

Agreement

on both lists

30%

23/77 HR · 2.3× exp

Hit rate = share of the list that homered. “× exp” vs the slate base rate. Agreement is the smaller, higher-conviction overlap of the two lists.

By day

2026-06-15 LIVEin progress · 5/10 final

Tar 2/15Mod 3/15Agr 1/8

Who’s homered so far

Targets 2/15Pete Crow-Armstrong, Spencer Torkelson

Model 3/15Pete Crow-Armstrong, Byron Buxton, Nick Kurtz

Agreement 1/8Pete Crow-Armstrong

HRs allowed per starter · 12 off starters

Kai-Wei Teng HOU v DET

Ryan Gusto MIA v PHI

MacKenzie Gore TEX v MIN

Tobias Myers NYM v CIN

Michael Lorenzen COL v CHC

Mike Paredes MIN v TEX

Jared Jones PIT v ATH

Eric Lauer LAD v TB

2026-06-1441 HR · 15% base

Tar 5/15Mod 3/15Agr 3/7

Who homered

Targets 5/15Max Muncy, James Wood, Alec Burleson, Hunter Goodman, JJ Bleday

Model 3/15Hunter Goodman, James Wood, Max Muncy

Agreement 3/7Max Muncy, James Wood, Hunter Goodman

HRs allowed per starter · 24 off starters

Jeffrey Springs ATH v COL

—

Paul Skenes PIT v MIA

—

Zac Gallen AZ v CIN

—

Bryce Elder ATL v NYM

—

Taj Bradley MIN v STL

—

Cristopher Sánchez PHI v MIL

—

Connelly Early BOS v TEX

—

Nathan Eovaldi TEX v BOS

—

Walker Buehler SD v BAL

—

Emerson Hancock SEA v WSH

—

Andrew Abbott CIN v AZ

—

Michael McGreevy STL v MIN

—

Bryan Hudson CWS v LAD

—

Emmet Sheehan LAD v CWS

—

Tomoyuki Sugano COL v ATH

—

Shut out (0 HR): Max Meyer, Trevor Rogers, PJ Poulin, Patrick Corbin, Will Warren, Freddy Peralta, Stephen Kolek, Spencer Arrighetti, Kyle Harrison, Logan Webb, Ryan Rolison, Grayson Rodriguez, Casey Legumina.

2026-06-1342 HR · 14% base

Tar 3/15Mod 5/15Agr 2/9

Who homered

Targets 3/15Max Muncy, Pete Alonso, Luis García Jr.

Model 5/15Pete Alonso, Corbin Carroll, Byron Buxton, Max Muncy, Max Muncy

Agreement 2/9Max Muncy, Pete Alonso

HRs allowed per starter · 26 off starters

Matthew Liberatore STL v MIN

—

Trey Gibson BAL v SD

—

Sean Burke CWS v LAD

—

Noah Cameron KC v HOU

—

Aaron Nola PHI v MIL

—

Connor Prielipp MIN v STL

—

Kevin Gausman TOR v NYY

—

Cam Schlittler NYY v TOR

—

Randy Vásquez SD v BAL

—

Cade Cavalli WSH v SEA

—

Luis Castillo SEA v WSH

—

Rhett Lowder CIN v AZ

—

Tarik Skubal DET v CLE

—

Sean Manaea NYM v ATL

—

Yoshinobu Yamamoto LAD v CWS

—

Mike Burrows HOU v KC

—

Shane Drohan MIL v PHI

—

Joey Estes ATH v COL

—

Kyle Freeland COL v ATH

—

Trevor McDonald SF v CHC

—

Shut out (0 HR): Bubba Chandler, Lake Bachar, Michael Soroka, Joey Cantillo, Ranger Suarez, Jacob deGrom, Martín Pérez, Ben Brown, José Soriano, Griffin Jax.

2026-06-1237 HR · 12% base

Tar 7/15Mod 8/15Agr 4/7

Who homered

Targets 7/15Yordan Alvarez, Dominic Canzone, Juan Soto, Matt Olson, Alec Burleson, Willson Contreras, Andrew Benintendi

Model 8/15Dominic Canzone, Yordan Alvarez, Juan Soto, Byron Buxton, James Wood, Shea Langeliers, Nick Kurtz, William Contreras

Agreement 4/7Yordan Alvarez, Dominic Canzone, Juan Soto, Willson Contreras

HRs allowed per starter · 22 off starters

Spencer Strider ATL v NYM

—

Sandy Alcantara MIA v PIT

—

Bryce Miller SEA v WSH

—

Griffin Canning SD v BAL

—

Tanner Bibee CLE v DET

—

Ryan Weathers NYY v TOR

—

Luinder Avila KC v HOU

—

Zack Littell WSH v SEA

—

Jack Leiter TEX v BOS

—

Eduardo Rodriguez AZ v CIN

—

Trey Yesavage TOR v NYY

—

Roki Sasaki LAD v CWS

—

Joe Ryan MIN v STL

—

Kyle Leahy STL v MIN

—

Shut out (0 HR): Braxton Ashcraft, Shane Baz, Jack Flaherty, Sonny Gray, Nick Lodolo, Nolan McLean, Anthony Kay, Jacob Misiorowski, Tanner Banks, Tatsuya Imai, Sam Aldegheri, Shane McClanahan, Gage Jump, Sean Sullivan, Landen Roupp, Javier Assad.

2026-06-1126 HR · 18% base

Tar 8/15Mod 4/15Agr 4/6

Who homered

Targets 8/15Carson Kelly, Luke Raley, Juan Soto, Brandon Lowe, Dominic Canzone, Spencer Torkelson, Brett Sullivan, Pete Alonso

Model 4/15Pete Alonso, Luke Raley, Juan Soto, Brandon Lowe

Agreement 4/6Luke Raley, Juan Soto, Brandon Lowe, Pete Alonso

HRs allowed per starter · 20 off starters

Christian Scott NYM v STL

—

Zebby Matthews MIN v DET

—

Kyle Bradish BAL v SEA

—

Hunter Dobbins STL v NYM

—

Edward Cabrera CHC v COL

—

Justin Wrobleski LAD v PIT

—

Bryan Woo SEA v BAL

—

Michael Wacha KC v TEX

—

Ryan Feltner COL v CHC

—

Mitch Keller PIT v LAD

—

Shut out (0 HR): Keider Montero, Tyler Phillips, Merrill Kelly, Kumar Rocker.

2026-06-1042 HR · 14% base

Tar 4/15Mod 6/15Agr 3/7

Who homered

Targets 4/15Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber, Mike Trout, Ian Happ

Model 6/15Kyle Schwarber, Kyle Stowers, Byron Buxton, Bryce Harper, Ian Happ, Pete Alonso

Agreement 3/7Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber, Ian Happ

HRs allowed per starter · 17 off starters

Michael King SD v CIN

JJ Bleday, Spencer Steer

Framber Valdez DET v MIN

Byron Buxton, Royce Lewis

Ryne Nelson ARI v MIA

Kyle Stowers, Owen Caissie

Jack Perkins ATH v MIL

Jackson Chourio, Gary Sánchez

Peter Lambert HOU v LAA

Logan O'Hoppe, Mike Trout

Carlos Rodón NYY v CLE

Angel Martínez

Foster Griffin WSH v SF

Matt Chapman

Robbie Ray SF v WSH

James Wood

George Kirby SEA v BAL

Pete Alonso

Andre Pallante STL v NYM

Francisco Alvarez

Brandon Sproat MIL v ATH

Alika Williams

Reid Detmers LAA v HOU

Shay Whitcomb

Shut out (0 HR): Jake Bennett, Drew Rasmussen, Parker Messick, Brady Singer, Brandon Young, Shohei Ohtani, Jared Jones, Mike Paredes, Ryan Gusto, Jesús Luzardo, Max Scherzer, Austin Warren, MacKenzie Gore, Seth Lugo, Chris Sale, Davis Martin, Shota Imanaga, Michael Lorenzen.

2026-06-0935 HR · 11% base

Tar 3/15Mod 3/15Agr 1/9

Who homered

Targets 3/15Hunter Goodman, Dillon Dingler, Nick Kurtz

Model 3/15Byron Buxton, Hunter Goodman, Matt Olson

Agreement 1/9Hunter Goodman

HRs allowed per starter · 23 off starters

Robert Gasser MIL v ATH

Jonah Heim, Tyler Soderstrom, Henry Bolte, Nick Kurtz

Taj Bradley MIN v DET

Kerry Carpenter, Riley Greene, Dillon Dingler

Eric Lauer LAD v PIT

Ryan O'Hearn, Bryan Reynolds

Max Meyer MIA v ARI

Gabriel Moreno, Corbin Carroll

Colin Rea CHC v COL

Ezequiel Tovar, Hunter Goodman

Trevor Rogers BAL v SEA

Mitch Garver

Slade Cecconi CLE v NYY

Spencer Jones

Zack Wheeler PHI v TOR

Jesús Sánchez

Freddy Peralta NYM v STL

Alec Burleson

Nathan Eovaldi TEX v KC

Jac Caglianone

Grant Holmes ATL v CWS

Miguel Vargas

Brandon Eisert CWS v ATL

Matt Olson

Tomoyuki Sugano COL v CHC

Michael Busch

Adrian Houser SF v WSH

Luis García Jr.

J.T. Ginn ATH v MIL

Jackson Chourio

Shut out (0 HR): Logan Gilbert, Paul Skenes, Payton Tolle, Nick Martinez, Troy Melton, Zac Gallen, Gerrit Cole, Dylan Cease, Dustin May, Stephen Kolek, Kai-Wei Teng, Walbert Ureña, Chase Burns, Lucas Giolito, Andrew Alvarez.

2026-06-0819 HR · 11% base

Tar 2/15Mod 1/15Agr 1/9

Who homered

Targets 2/15Zach Neto, Shea Langeliers

Model 1/15Shea Langeliers

Agreement 1/9Shea Langeliers

HRs allowed per starter · 12 off starters

Kyle Harrison MIL v ATH

Zack Gelof, Tyler Soderstrom, Shea Langeliers

Gavin Williams CLE v NYY

Ryan McMahon, Paul Goldschmidt

Jeffrey Springs ATH v MIL

Andrew Vaughn, Brice Turang

Connelly Early BOS v TB

[unidentified BOS/TB id:650490]

Ian Seymour TB v BOS

Marcelo Mayer

Cristopher Sánchez PHI v TOR

Ernie Clement

Patrick Corbin TOR v PHI

Adolis García

Andrew Abbott CIN v SD

Freddy Fermin

Shut out (0 HR): Emerson Hancock, Trey Gibson, Will Warren, Spencer Arrighetti, Grayson Rodriguez, Walker Buehler, Richard Lovelady, Logan Webb.

2026-06-0734 HR · 11% base

Tar 2/15Mod 2/15Agr 1/6

Who homered

Targets 2/15Nick Kurtz, Zach Neto

Model 2/15Nick Kurtz, Hunter Goodman

Agreement 1/6Nick Kurtz

HRs allowed per starter · 18 off starters

Joey Cantillo CLE v TEX

Wyatt Langford, Josh Jung, Justin Foscue

Kevin Gausman TOR v BAL

Taylor Ward, Colton Cowser

Mike Burrows HOU v ATH

Brent Rooker, Nick Kurtz

Michael McGreevy STL v CIN

Tyler Stephenson, Matt McLain

Cade Cavalli WSH v ARI

Gabriel Moreno, Corbin Carroll

José Soriano LAA v LAD

[unidentified LAA/LAD id:669899], Dalton Rushing

Bryce Elder ATL v PIT

Spencer Horwitz

Shane Baz BAL v TOR

Yohendrick Piñango

Luis Castillo SEA v DET

Kevin McGonigle

Michael Soroka ARI v WSH

CJ Abrams

Randy Vásquez SD v NYM

Marcus Semien

Shut out (0 HR): Mason Montgomery, Tyler Gilbert, Aaron Nola, Ranger Suarez, Cam Schlittler, Jack Flaherty, Griffin Jax, Sandy Alcantara, Gage Jump, Noah Cameron, Connor Prielipp, Rhett Lowder, Jacob deGrom, Shane Drohan, Kyle Freeland, Emmet Sheehan, Huascar Brazobán, Trevor McDonald, Jameson Taillon.

2026-06-0634 HR · 12% base

Tar 1/15Mod 2/15Agr 0/8

Who homered

Targets 1/15Dominic Canzone

Model 2/15Yordan Alvarez, Endy Rodríguez

Agreement 0/8none homered

HRs allowed per starter · 17 off starters

Andrew Painter PHI v CWS

[unidentified CWS/PHI id:694378], Colson Montgomery

Eduardo Rodriguez ARI v WSH

Dylan Crews, Curtis Mead

Jack Leiter TEX v CLE

Brayan Rocchio, José Ramírez

Zach Agnos COL v MIL

David Hamilton, Brice Turang

Keider Montero DET v SEA

Dominic Canzone

Joe Ryan MIN v KC

Carter Jensen

Nick Lodolo CIN v STL

Jordan Walker

Matthew Liberatore STL v CIN

Matt McLain

Landen Roupp SF v CHC

Pete Crow-Armstrong

Kyle Bradish BAL v TOR

Ernie Clement

Braxton Ashcraft PIT v ATL

Dominic Smith

Shane McClanahan TB v MIA

Javier Sanoja

Jack Kochanowicz LAA v LAD

Andy Pages

Shut out (0 HR): Bryce Miller, Luinder Avila, Ben Brown, Braydon Fisher, Brandon Eisert, Zack Littell, Kade Morris, Tatsuya Imai, Spencer Strider, Lake Bachar, Tanner Bibee, Jacob Misiorowski, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Nolan McLean, Griffin Canning, Ranger Suarez, Will Warren.

2026-06-0537 HR · 12% base

Tar 4/15Mod 5/15Agr 4/9

Who homered

Targets 4/15Seiya Suzuki, Willson Contreras, Ben Rice, Alec Burleson

Model 5/15James Wood, Ben Rice, Seiya Suzuki, Alec Burleson, Willson Contreras

Agreement 4/9Seiya Suzuki, Willson Contreras, Ben Rice, Alec Burleson

HRs allowed per starter · 31 off starters

Edward Cabrera CHC v SF

Casey Schmitt, Matt Chapman, Willy Adames

Jesús Luzardo PHI v CWS

Randal Grichuk ×2, Derek Hill

Merrill Kelly ARI v WSH

Daylen Lile, James Wood, Luis García Jr.

Anthony Kay CWS v PHI

Adolis García, Brandon Marsh

Sonny Gray BOS v NYY

Trent Grisham, Ben Rice

Ryan Weathers NYY v BOS

Willson Contreras, Andruw Monasterio

Trey Yesavage TOR v BAL

Coby Mayo, Adley Rutschman

Parker Messick CLE v TEX

Corey Seager, Kyle Higashioka

Michael King SD v NYM

Luis Torrens, [unidentified NYM/SD id:676724]

Bryan Woo SEA v DET

Kerry Carpenter

Brandon Young BAL v TOR

Brandon Valenzuela

Mitch Keller PIT v ATL

Mauricio Dubón

Jack Perkins ATH v HOU

Isaac Paredes

Peter Lambert HOU v ATH

Brent Rooker

Brady Singer CIN v STL

Alec Burleson

Kumar Rocker TEX v CLE

Travis Bazzana

Michael Wacha KC v MIN

Brooks Lee

Brandon Sproat MIL v COL

Hunter Goodman

Foster Griffin WSH v ARI

[unidentified WSH/AZ id:605244]

Shut out (0 HR): Robbie Ray, Framber Valdez, Drew Rasmussen, Ryan Gusto, Martín Pérez, Kyle Leahy, Zebby Matthews, Ryan Feltner, Christian Scott, Reid Detmers, Roki Sasaki.

Likelihood-first board. Even the top plays hit ~1-in-5 — most miss by design. Confirm lineups & odds at lock; bet within your means.