2026-06-15 · 10 games · tap a row for the full breakdown
How the daily pick lists are doing vs actual HRs — auto-graded nightly, 10 day(s) in. Tap a day to see who homered and which starters got taken deep.
Overall · 10 day(s)
Targets
blend: P(HR) × matchup
26%
39/150 HR · 2.0× exp
Model
raw model P(HR)
26%
39/150 HR · 2.0× exp
Agreement
on both lists
30%
23/77 HR · 2.3× exp
Hit rate = share of the list that homered. “× exp” vs the slate base rate. Agreement is the smaller, higher-conviction overlap of the two lists.
By day
2026-06-15 LIVEin progress · 5/10 final
Tar 2/15Mod 3/15Agr 1/8
Who’s homered so far
Targets 2/15Pete Crow-Armstrong, Spencer Torkelson
Model 3/15Pete Crow-Armstrong, Byron Buxton, Nick Kurtz
Agreement 1/8Pete Crow-Armstrong
HRs allowed per starter · 12 off starters
Kai-Wei Teng HOU v DET
3
Ryan Gusto MIA v PHI
2
MacKenzie Gore TEX v MIN
2
Tobias Myers NYM v CIN
1
Michael Lorenzen COL v CHC
1
Mike Paredes MIN v TEX
1
Jared Jones PIT v ATH
1
Eric Lauer LAD v TB
1
2026-06-1441 HR · 15% base
Tar 5/15Mod 3/15Agr 3/7
Who homered
Targets 5/15Max Muncy, James Wood, Alec Burleson, Hunter Goodman, JJ Bleday
Model 3/15Hunter Goodman, James Wood, Max Muncy
Agreement 3/7Max Muncy, James Wood, Hunter Goodman
HRs allowed per starter · 24 off starters
Jeffrey Springs ATH v COL
3
Paul Skenes PIT v MIA
2
Zac Gallen AZ v CIN
2
Bryce Elder ATL v NYM
2
Taj Bradley MIN v STL
2
Cristopher Sánchez PHI v MIL
2
Connelly Early BOS v TEX
2
Nathan Eovaldi TEX v BOS
2
Walker Buehler SD v BAL
1
Emerson Hancock SEA v WSH
1
Andrew Abbott CIN v AZ
1
Michael McGreevy STL v MIN
1
Bryan Hudson CWS v LAD
1
Emmet Sheehan LAD v CWS
1
Tomoyuki Sugano COL v ATH
1
Shut out (0 HR): Max Meyer, Trevor Rogers, PJ Poulin, Patrick Corbin, Will Warren, Freddy Peralta, Stephen Kolek, Spencer Arrighetti, Kyle Harrison, Logan Webb, Ryan Rolison, Grayson Rodriguez, Casey Legumina.
2026-06-1342 HR · 14% base
Tar 3/15Mod 5/15Agr 2/9
Who homered
Targets 3/15Max Muncy, Pete Alonso, Luis García Jr.
Model 5/15Pete Alonso, Corbin Carroll, Byron Buxton, Max Muncy, Max Muncy
Agreement 2/9Max Muncy, Pete Alonso
HRs allowed per starter · 26 off starters
Matthew Liberatore STL v MIN
3
Trey Gibson BAL v SD
2
Sean Burke CWS v LAD
2
Noah Cameron KC v HOU
2
Aaron Nola PHI v MIL
2
Connor Prielipp MIN v STL
1
Kevin Gausman TOR v NYY
1
Cam Schlittler NYY v TOR
1
Randy Vásquez SD v BAL
1
Cade Cavalli WSH v SEA
1
Luis Castillo SEA v WSH
1
Rhett Lowder CIN v AZ
1
Tarik Skubal DET v CLE
1
Sean Manaea NYM v ATL
1
Yoshinobu Yamamoto LAD v CWS
1
Mike Burrows HOU v KC
1
Shane Drohan MIL v PHI
1
Joey Estes ATH v COL
1
Kyle Freeland COL v ATH
1
Trevor McDonald SF v CHC
1
Shut out (0 HR): Bubba Chandler, Lake Bachar, Michael Soroka, Joey Cantillo, Ranger Suarez, Jacob deGrom, Martín Pérez, Ben Brown, José Soriano, Griffin Jax.
2026-06-1237 HR · 12% base
Tar 7/15Mod 8/15Agr 4/7
Who homered
Targets 7/15Yordan Alvarez, Dominic Canzone, Juan Soto, Matt Olson, Alec Burleson, Willson Contreras, Andrew Benintendi
Model 8/15Dominic Canzone, Yordan Alvarez, Juan Soto, Byron Buxton, James Wood, Shea Langeliers, Nick Kurtz, William Contreras
Agreement 4/7Yordan Alvarez, Dominic Canzone, Juan Soto, Willson Contreras
HRs allowed per starter · 22 off starters
Spencer Strider ATL v NYM
3
Sandy Alcantara MIA v PIT
2
Bryce Miller SEA v WSH
2
Griffin Canning SD v BAL
2
Tanner Bibee CLE v DET
2
Ryan Weathers NYY v TOR
2
Luinder Avila KC v HOU
2
Zack Littell WSH v SEA
1
Jack Leiter TEX v BOS
1
Eduardo Rodriguez AZ v CIN
1
Trey Yesavage TOR v NYY
1
Roki Sasaki LAD v CWS
1
Joe Ryan MIN v STL
1
Kyle Leahy STL v MIN
1
Shut out (0 HR): Braxton Ashcraft, Shane Baz, Jack Flaherty, Sonny Gray, Nick Lodolo, Nolan McLean, Anthony Kay, Jacob Misiorowski, Tanner Banks, Tatsuya Imai, Sam Aldegheri, Shane McClanahan, Gage Jump, Sean Sullivan, Landen Roupp, Javier Assad.
2026-06-1126 HR · 18% base
Tar 8/15Mod 4/15Agr 4/6
Who homered
Targets 8/15Carson Kelly, Luke Raley, Juan Soto, Brandon Lowe, Dominic Canzone, Spencer Torkelson, Brett Sullivan, Pete Alonso
Model 4/15Pete Alonso, Luke Raley, Juan Soto, Brandon Lowe
Agreement 4/6Luke Raley, Juan Soto, Brandon Lowe, Pete Alonso
HRs allowed per starter · 20 off starters
Christian Scott NYM v STL
3
Zebby Matthews MIN v DET
3
Kyle Bradish BAL v SEA
3
Hunter Dobbins STL v NYM
2
Edward Cabrera CHC v COL
2
Justin Wrobleski LAD v PIT
2
Bryan Woo SEA v BAL
2
Michael Wacha KC v TEX
1
Ryan Feltner COL v CHC
1
Mitch Keller PIT v LAD
1
Shut out (0 HR): Keider Montero, Tyler Phillips, Merrill Kelly, Kumar Rocker.
2026-06-1042 HR · 14% base
Tar 4/15Mod 6/15Agr 3/7
Who homered
Targets 4/15Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber, Mike Trout, Ian Happ
Model 6/15Kyle Schwarber, Kyle Stowers, Byron Buxton, Bryce Harper, Ian Happ, Pete Alonso
Agreement 3/7Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber, Ian Happ
HRs allowed per starter · 17 off starters
Michael King SD v CIN
JJ Bleday, Spencer Steer
2
Framber Valdez DET v MIN
Byron Buxton, Royce Lewis
2
Ryne Nelson ARI v MIA
Kyle Stowers, Owen Caissie
2
Jack Perkins ATH v MIL
Jackson Chourio, Gary Sánchez
2
Peter Lambert HOU v LAA
Logan O'Hoppe, Mike Trout
2
Carlos Rodón NYY v CLE
Angel Martínez
1
Foster Griffin WSH v SF
Matt Chapman
1
Robbie Ray SF v WSH
James Wood
1
George Kirby SEA v BAL
Pete Alonso
1
Andre Pallante STL v NYM
Francisco Alvarez
1
Brandon Sproat MIL v ATH
Alika Williams
1
Reid Detmers LAA v HOU
Shay Whitcomb
1
Shut out (0 HR): Jake Bennett, Drew Rasmussen, Parker Messick, Brady Singer, Brandon Young, Shohei Ohtani, Jared Jones, Mike Paredes, Ryan Gusto, Jesús Luzardo, Max Scherzer, Austin Warren, MacKenzie Gore, Seth Lugo, Chris Sale, Davis Martin, Shota Imanaga, Michael Lorenzen.
2026-06-0935 HR · 11% base
Tar 3/15Mod 3/15Agr 1/9
Who homered
Targets 3/15Hunter Goodman, Dillon Dingler, Nick Kurtz
Model 3/15Byron Buxton, Hunter Goodman, Matt Olson
Agreement 1/9Hunter Goodman
HRs allowed per starter · 23 off starters
Robert Gasser MIL v ATH
Jonah Heim, Tyler Soderstrom, Henry Bolte, Nick Kurtz
4
Taj Bradley MIN v DET
Kerry Carpenter, Riley Greene, Dillon Dingler
3
Eric Lauer LAD v PIT
Ryan O'Hearn, Bryan Reynolds
2
Max Meyer MIA v ARI
Gabriel Moreno, Corbin Carroll
2
Colin Rea CHC v COL
Ezequiel Tovar, Hunter Goodman
2
Trevor Rogers BAL v SEA
Mitch Garver
1
Slade Cecconi CLE v NYY
Spencer Jones
1
Zack Wheeler PHI v TOR
Jesús Sánchez
1
Freddy Peralta NYM v STL
Alec Burleson
1
Nathan Eovaldi TEX v KC
Jac Caglianone
1
Grant Holmes ATL v CWS
Miguel Vargas
1
Brandon Eisert CWS v ATL
Matt Olson
1
Tomoyuki Sugano COL v CHC
Michael Busch
1
Adrian Houser SF v WSH
Luis García Jr.
1
J.T. Ginn ATH v MIL
Jackson Chourio
1
Shut out (0 HR): Logan Gilbert, Paul Skenes, Payton Tolle, Nick Martinez, Troy Melton, Zac Gallen, Gerrit Cole, Dylan Cease, Dustin May, Stephen Kolek, Kai-Wei Teng, Walbert Ureña, Chase Burns, Lucas Giolito, Andrew Alvarez.
2026-06-0819 HR · 11% base
Tar 2/15Mod 1/15Agr 1/9
Who homered
Targets 2/15Zach Neto, Shea Langeliers
Model 1/15Shea Langeliers
Agreement 1/9Shea Langeliers
HRs allowed per starter · 12 off starters
Kyle Harrison MIL v ATH
Zack Gelof, Tyler Soderstrom, Shea Langeliers
3
Gavin Williams CLE v NYY
Ryan McMahon, Paul Goldschmidt
2
Jeffrey Springs ATH v MIL
Andrew Vaughn, Brice Turang
2
Connelly Early BOS v TB
[unidentified BOS/TB id:650490]
1
Ian Seymour TB v BOS
Marcelo Mayer
1
Cristopher Sánchez PHI v TOR
Ernie Clement
1
Patrick Corbin TOR v PHI
Adolis García
1
Andrew Abbott CIN v SD
Freddy Fermin
1
Shut out (0 HR): Emerson Hancock, Trey Gibson, Will Warren, Spencer Arrighetti, Grayson Rodriguez, Walker Buehler, Richard Lovelady, Logan Webb.
2026-06-0734 HR · 11% base
Tar 2/15Mod 2/15Agr 1/6
Who homered
Targets 2/15Nick Kurtz, Zach Neto
Model 2/15Nick Kurtz, Hunter Goodman
Agreement 1/6Nick Kurtz
HRs allowed per starter · 18 off starters
Joey Cantillo CLE v TEX
Wyatt Langford, Josh Jung, Justin Foscue
3
Kevin Gausman TOR v BAL
Taylor Ward, Colton Cowser
2
Mike Burrows HOU v ATH
Brent Rooker, Nick Kurtz
2
Michael McGreevy STL v CIN
Tyler Stephenson, Matt McLain
2
Cade Cavalli WSH v ARI
Gabriel Moreno, Corbin Carroll
2
José Soriano LAA v LAD
[unidentified LAA/LAD id:669899], Dalton Rushing
2
Bryce Elder ATL v PIT
Spencer Horwitz
1
Shane Baz BAL v TOR
Yohendrick Piñango
1
Luis Castillo SEA v DET
Kevin McGonigle
1
Michael Soroka ARI v WSH
CJ Abrams
1
Randy Vásquez SD v NYM
Marcus Semien
1
Shut out (0 HR): Mason Montgomery, Tyler Gilbert, Aaron Nola, Ranger Suarez, Cam Schlittler, Jack Flaherty, Griffin Jax, Sandy Alcantara, Gage Jump, Noah Cameron, Connor Prielipp, Rhett Lowder, Jacob deGrom, Shane Drohan, Kyle Freeland, Emmet Sheehan, Huascar Brazobán, Trevor McDonald, Jameson Taillon.
2026-06-0634 HR · 12% base
Tar 1/15Mod 2/15Agr 0/8
Who homered
Targets 1/15Dominic Canzone
Model 2/15Yordan Alvarez, Endy Rodríguez
Agreement 0/8none homered
HRs allowed per starter · 17 off starters
Andrew Painter PHI v CWS
[unidentified CWS/PHI id:694378], Colson Montgomery
2
Eduardo Rodriguez ARI v WSH
Dylan Crews, Curtis Mead
2
Jack Leiter TEX v CLE
Brayan Rocchio, José Ramírez
2
Zach Agnos COL v MIL
David Hamilton, Brice Turang
2
Keider Montero DET v SEA
Dominic Canzone
1
Joe Ryan MIN v KC
Carter Jensen
1
Nick Lodolo CIN v STL
Jordan Walker
1
Matthew Liberatore STL v CIN
Matt McLain
1
Landen Roupp SF v CHC
Pete Crow-Armstrong
1
Kyle Bradish BAL v TOR
Ernie Clement
1
Braxton Ashcraft PIT v ATL
Dominic Smith
1
Shane McClanahan TB v MIA
Javier Sanoja
1
Jack Kochanowicz LAA v LAD
Andy Pages
1
Shut out (0 HR): Bryce Miller, Luinder Avila, Ben Brown, Braydon Fisher, Brandon Eisert, Zack Littell, Kade Morris, Tatsuya Imai, Spencer Strider, Lake Bachar, Tanner Bibee, Jacob Misiorowski, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Nolan McLean, Griffin Canning, Ranger Suarez, Will Warren.
2026-06-0537 HR · 12% base
Tar 4/15Mod 5/15Agr 4/9
Who homered
Targets 4/15Seiya Suzuki, Willson Contreras, Ben Rice, Alec Burleson
Model 5/15James Wood, Ben Rice, Seiya Suzuki, Alec Burleson, Willson Contreras
Agreement 4/9Seiya Suzuki, Willson Contreras, Ben Rice, Alec Burleson
HRs allowed per starter · 31 off starters
Edward Cabrera CHC v SF
Casey Schmitt, Matt Chapman, Willy Adames
3
Jesús Luzardo PHI v CWS
Randal Grichuk ×2, Derek Hill
3
Merrill Kelly ARI v WSH
Daylen Lile, James Wood, Luis García Jr.
3
Anthony Kay CWS v PHI
Adolis García, Brandon Marsh
2
Sonny Gray BOS v NYY
Trent Grisham, Ben Rice
2
Ryan Weathers NYY v BOS
Willson Contreras, Andruw Monasterio
2
Trey Yesavage TOR v BAL
Coby Mayo, Adley Rutschman
2
Parker Messick CLE v TEX
Corey Seager, Kyle Higashioka
2
Michael King SD v NYM
Luis Torrens, [unidentified NYM/SD id:676724]
2
Bryan Woo SEA v DET
Kerry Carpenter
1
Brandon Young BAL v TOR
Brandon Valenzuela
1
Mitch Keller PIT v ATL
Mauricio Dubón
1
Jack Perkins ATH v HOU
Isaac Paredes
1
Peter Lambert HOU v ATH
Brent Rooker
1
Brady Singer CIN v STL
Alec Burleson
1
Kumar Rocker TEX v CLE
Travis Bazzana
1
Michael Wacha KC v MIN
Brooks Lee
1
Brandon Sproat MIL v COL
Hunter Goodman
1
Foster Griffin WSH v ARI
[unidentified WSH/AZ id:605244]
1
Shut out (0 HR): Robbie Ray, Framber Valdez, Drew Rasmussen, Ryan Gusto, Martín Pérez, Kyle Leahy, Zebby Matthews, Ryan Feltner, Christian Scott, Reid Detmers, Roki Sasaki.
Likelihood-first board. Even the top plays hit ~1-in-5 — most miss by design. Confirm lineups & odds at lock; bet within your means.