2026-06-15 · 10 games · tap a row for the full breakdown
Top 3-leg HR parlaysall 3 must homer · ranked by combined probability2picks
Top 3-leg HR parlays
all 3 must homer · ranked by combined probability
2
picks
Even the best HR parlay is a longshot (~1-in-50 or worse). Combined % assumes independent legs — same-game stacks can correlate.
Highest probability · 2.5% · +3917 fair
A Juan Soto NYM29%
A Kyle Schwarber PHI29%
A Junior Caminero TB29%
Alternative · 2.5% · +3917 fair
A Juan Soto NYM29%
A Kyle Schwarber PHI29%
A Pete Crow-Armstrong CHC29%
Juan Soto L
NYM AWAY vs Chase Burns R · CINwind 1.02park 1.18brl 22%recent 21% HOT29%MatchupB+243
Juan Soto L
NYM AWAY vs Chase Burns R · CIN
wind 1.02park 1.18brl 22%recent 21% HOT
29%
MatchupB
+243
Juan Soto L
NYM AWAY vs Chase Burns R · CIN
wind 1.02park 1.18brl 22%recent 21% HOT
29%
Matchup summary · vs Chase Burns
Batter Summary 🔥 Hot
Soto has 11 of his 15 HRs off RHP, 48% hard-hit that side. 6 of his 15 HRs have come on the road, slugging .427 there. Soto has been hot against arms like this lately.
Form Last ~3 weeks (recency-weighted): .517 xwOBAcon (lg .372), 21% well-hit (lg 14%), 53% hard-hit · 6 HR in 52 PA. Recent contact quality is beating league — the rating catches the heat before the HR totals show it.
Ranking Reasoning
Strong HR spot.
He's vulnerable to lefties (1.6 HR/9), big power vs RHP (22% barrels) and hot against this kind of arsenal.
He's vulnerable to lefties (1.6 HR/9), big power vs RHP (22% barrels) and hot against this kind of arsenal.
🏟️ Homered here 1× at this park (since ’25)
⚾ vs Burns (career): 1/3 AB | 1 HR | 1K
Pitch by Pitch
Pitch-by-pitch · Burns throws / Soto hits
Stuff & usage = the arm’s; whiff / contact / EV / barrel / air-ground / HR = Soto’s 2026 vs RHP · green = bat’s edge
4-SeamSt 9460% used
Whiff
7%
Contact
93%
EV
97
Barrel
21%
Air/Gnd
45/36
HR
5
33 BBE
SliderSt 7327% used
Whiff
17%
Contact
83%
EV
98
Barrel
22%
Air/Gnd
33/44
HR
1
9 BBE
ChangeSt 9211% used
Whiff
5%
Contact
95%
EV
91
Barrel
14%
Air/Gnd
14/64
HR
1
14 BBE
Pitch-by-pitch · Petty throws / Soto hits
Stuff & usage = the arm’s; whiff / contact / EV / barrel / air-ground / HR = Soto’s 2026 vs RHP · green = bat’s edge
Change—31% used
Whiff
5%
Contact
95%
EV
91
Barrel
14%
Air/Gnd
14/64
HR
1
14 BBE
Slider—25% used
Whiff
17%
Contact
83%
EV
98
Barrel
22%
Air/Gnd
33/44
HR
1
9 BBE
4-Seam—23% used
Whiff
7%
Contact
93%
EV
97
Barrel
21%
Air/Gnd
45/36
HR
5
33 BBE
Sinker—16% used
Whiff
18%
Contact
82%
EV
99
Barrel
5%
Air/Gnd
11/47
HR
1
19 BBE
Sweeper—6% used
Whiff
31%
Contact
69%
EV
95
Barrel
17%
Air/Gnd
33/17
HR
1
6 BBE
Pitch-by-pitch · Maxwell throws / Soto hits
Stuff & usage = the arm’s; whiff / contact / EV / barrel / air-ground / HR = Soto’s 2026 vs RHP · green = bat’s edge
4-Seam—64% used
Whiff
7%
Contact
93%
EV
97
Barrel
21%
Air/Gnd
45/36
HR
5
33 BBE
Slider—19% used
Whiff
17%
Contact
83%
EV
98
Barrel
22%
Air/Gnd
33/44
HR
1
9 BBE
Cutter—17% used
Whiff
21%
Contact
79%
EV
80
Barrel
0%
Air/Gnd
25/25
HR
0
4 BBE
Pitch-by-pitch · Santillan throws / Soto hits
Stuff & usage = the arm’s; whiff / contact / EV / barrel / air-ground / HR = Soto’s 2026 vs RHP · green = bat’s edge
4-Seam—68% used
Whiff
7%
Contact
93%
EV
97
Barrel
21%
Air/Gnd
45/36
HR
5
33 BBE
Slurve—22% used
Whiff
—
Contact
—
EV
—
Barrel
—
Air/Gnd
—
HR
—
thin 2026
Slider—10% used
Whiff
17%
Contact
83%
EV
98
Barrel
22%
Air/Gnd
33/44
HR
1
9 BBE
Pitch-by-pitch · Burke throws / Soto hits
Stuff & usage = the arm’s; whiff / contact / EV / barrel / air-ground / HR = Soto’s 2026 vs LHP · green = bat’s edge
Slider—38% used
Whiff
35%
Contact
65%
EV
88
Barrel
0%
Air/Gnd
30/40
HR
1
10 BBE
4-Seam—36% used
Whiff
19%
Contact
81%
EV
94
Barrel
7%
Air/Gnd
43/29
HR
1
14 BBE
Sinker—24% used
Whiff
12%
Contact
88%
EV
90
Barrel
7%
Air/Gnd
27/67
HR
0
15 BBE
Pitch-by-pitch · Antone throws / Soto hits
Stuff & usage = the arm’s; whiff / contact / EV / barrel / air-ground / HR = Soto’s 2026 vs RHP · green = bat’s edge
Cutter—41% used
Whiff
21%
Contact
79%
EV
80
Barrel
0%
Air/Gnd
25/25
HR
0
4 BBE
Sweeper—26% used
Whiff
31%
Contact
69%
EV
95
Barrel
17%
Air/Gnd
33/17
HR
1
6 BBE
Curve—24% used
Whiff
29%
Contact
71%
EV
90
Barrel
17%
Air/Gnd
17/33
HR
1
6 BBE
4-Seam—9% used
Whiff
7%
Contact
93%
EV
97
Barrel
21%
Air/Gnd
45/36
HR
5
33 BBE
Pitch-by-pitch · Ferguson throws / Soto hits
Stuff & usage = the arm’s; whiff / contact / EV / barrel / air-ground / HR = Soto’s 2026 vs LHP · green = bat’s edge
Sinker—48% used
Whiff
12%
Contact
88%
EV
90
Barrel
7%
Air/Gnd
27/67
HR
0
15 BBE
Cutter—25% used
Whiff
—
Contact
—
EV
—
Barrel
—
Air/Gnd
—
HR
—
thin 2026
4-Seam—19% used
Whiff
19%
Contact
81%
EV
94
Barrel
7%
Air/Gnd
43/29
HR
1
14 BBE
Slurve—7% used
Whiff
—
Contact
—
EV
—
Barrel
—
Air/Gnd
—
HR
—
thin 2026
Pitch-by-pitch · Moll throws / Soto hits
Stuff & usage = the arm’s; whiff / contact / EV / barrel / air-ground / HR = Soto’s 2026 vs LHP · green = bat’s edge
Sweeper—51% used
Whiff
42%
Contact
58%
EV
84
Barrel
22%
Air/Gnd
33/44
HR
0
9 BBE
Sinker—38% used
Whiff
12%
Contact
88%
EV
90
Barrel
7%
Air/Gnd
27/67
HR
0
15 BBE
4-Seam—11% used
Whiff
19%
Contact
81%
EV
94
Barrel
7%
Air/Gnd
43/29
HR
1
14 BBE
🎯 Target
Matchup-Fit · barrel alignment vs Chase Burns’s arsenal
4-Seam 60% usedbarrels 21% · allows 3% · 5 HR
Slider 27% usedbarrels 22% · allows 5% · 1 HR
Change 11% usedbarrels 14% · allows 7% · 1 HR
Air / Park
Pulls 19% in the air; pull side RF — park ×1.08 → park+wind fits his pull power.
Recent form · last 5
Barrel 12% · EV 91 · 2 HR over his last 5.
Matchup-Fit · barrel alignment vs Chase Petty’s arsenal
Change 31% usedbarrels 14% · allows 0% · 1 HR
Slider 25% usedbarrels 22% · allows — · 1 HR
4-Seam 23% usedbarrels 21% · allows — · 5 HR
Sinker 16% usedbarrels 5% · allows 0% · 1 HR
Sweeper 6% usedbarrels 17% · allows — · 1 HR
Air / Park
Pulls 19% in the air; pull side RF — park ×1.08 → park+wind fits his pull power.
Recent form · last 5
Barrel 12% · EV 91 · 2 HR over his last 5.
Matchup-Fit · barrel alignment vs Zach Maxwell’s arsenal
4-Seam 64% usedbarrels 21% · allows — · 5 HR
Slider 19% usedbarrels 22% · allows — · 1 HR
Cutter 17% usedbarrels 0% · allows —
Air / Park
Pulls 19% in the air; pull side RF — park ×1.08 → park+wind fits his pull power.
Recent form · last 5
Barrel 12% · EV 91 · 2 HR over his last 5.
Matchup-Fit · barrel alignment vs Tony Santillan’s arsenal
4-Seam 68% usedbarrels 21% · allows 7% · 5 HR
Slurve 22% usedbarrels — · allows 33%
Slider 10% usedbarrels 22% · allows — · 1 HR
Air / Park
Pulls 19% in the air; pull side RF — park ×1.08 → park+wind fits his pull power.
Recent form · last 5
Barrel 12% · EV 91 · 2 HR over his last 5.
Matchup-Fit · barrel alignment vs Brock Burke’s arsenal
Slider 38% usedbarrels 0% · allows 14% · 1 HR
4-Seam 36% usedbarrels 7% · allows 12% · 1 HR
Sinker 24% usedbarrels 7% · allows 0%
Air / Park
Pulls 19% in the air; pull side RF — park ×1.08 → park+wind fits his pull power.
Recent form · last 5
Barrel 12% · EV 91 · 2 HR over his last 5.
Matchup-Fit · barrel alignment vs Tejay Antone’s arsenal
Cutter 41% usedbarrels 0% · allows 29%
Sweeper 26% usedbarrels 17% · allows — · 1 HR
Curve 24% usedbarrels 17% · allows — · 1 HR
4-Seam 9% usedbarrels 21% · allows — · 5 HR
Air / Park
Pulls 19% in the air; pull side RF — park ×1.08 → park+wind fits his pull power.
Recent form · last 5
Barrel 12% · EV 91 · 2 HR over his last 5.
Matchup-Fit · barrel alignment vs Caleb Ferguson’s arsenal
Sinker 48% usedbarrels 7% · allows —
Cutter 25% usedbarrels — · allows —
4-Seam 19% usedbarrels 7% · allows — · 1 HR
Slurve 7% usedbarrels — · allows —
Air / Park
Pulls 19% in the air; pull side RF — park ×1.08 → park+wind fits his pull power.
Recent form · last 5
Barrel 12% · EV 91 · 2 HR over his last 5.
Matchup-Fit · barrel alignment vs Sam Moll’s arsenal
Sweeper 51% usedbarrels 22% · allows 9%
Sinker 38% usedbarrels 7% · allows 4%
4-Seam 11% usedbarrels 7% · allows — · 1 HR
Air / Park
Pulls 19% in the air; pull side RF — park ×1.08 → park+wind fits his pull power.
Recent form · last 5
Barrel 12% · EV 91 · 2 HR over his last 5.
Matchup Lab
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Batter Stats
Last 5 games · H/AB · K · GB · FB · barrel · EV · HR/FB · HR
| H/AB | K | GB | FB | BRL | EV | HR/FB | HR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5G | 8/17 | 0 | 24% | 12% | 12% | 91 | 100% | 2 |
| 06/14 | 2/3 | 0 | 33% | 0% | 0% | 66 | — | 0 |
| 06/13 | 2/4 | 0 | 25% | 25% | 0% | 90 | 0% | 0 |
| 06/12 | 2/3 | 0 | 0% | 0% | 33% | 97 | — | 1 |
| 06/11 | 2/4 | 0 | 25% | 25% | 25% | 105 | 100% | 1 |
| 06/10 | 0/3 | 0 | 33% | 0% | 0% | 91 | — | 0 |
Swing & Bat Tracking (323 swings)
bat tracking
Bat speed72.4 mph
Swing length7.1 ft
Attack angle14.0°
contact
swing timing
Early14%
On-time75%
Late11%
miss profile
Over14%
Under15%
Tied-up3%
Centered79%
Flailed18%
Batter power & contact · longer + greener = more HR-likely
vs LHP · 4 HR in 84 PA
vs RHP · 11 HR in 168 PA
Matchup strength · longer + greener = more HR-favorable
matchup strength
supporting
Home / Away HR splits · season-to-date
Home HOME9 HR / 121 PA · 7.4%
Home · .686 SLG
Away AWAY6 HR / 110 PA · 5.5%
Away · .427 SLG
Park fit · spray vs this yard
Pulls 19% of contact in the air; his pull side is RF here — HR factor ×1.08 → park fits his pull power.
Pitcher
Chase Burns • RHP (CIN)NYM @ CIN | vs NYM7/1 W–L (Tied–11th) • 2.14 ERA (4th) • 88 Ks (Tied–14th) • 0.99 WHIP (6th)1.3 HR/9 • 14% Barrel • 24% FB • 28% K • 2.14 ERA (H 2.23 / A 2.04)▬ Holding steady0.87hittability
Chase Burns • RHP (CIN)
NYM @ CIN | vs NYM
7/1 W–L (Tied–11th) • 2.14 ERA (4th) • 88 Ks (Tied–14th) • 0.99 WHIP (6th)
1.3 HR/9 • 14% Barrel • 24% FB • 28% K • 2.14 ERA (H 2.23 / A 2.04)
▬ Holding steady
0.87
hittability
Last 3 starts · IP / pitches / HR
▬ Holding steady No big change in his home-run risk lately.
06/09 5.1 IP · 105 P0 HR
06/03 6.0 IP · 98 P1 HR
05/26 5.1 IP · 90 P1 HR
Pitches to target · go-deep pitches
The pitches he's given up the most homers on — and the bats most likely to punish them.
vs lefty batschange · 4-seam
Most likely to capitalize: Soto 29%, Baty 17%, Benge 16%
vs righty batsno clear target
Most likely to capitalize: Alvarez 18%, Bichette 16%, Melendez 14%
HR hittability vs a league-average hitter · longer + greener = easier to take deep
vs LHB · 1.6 HR/9 · 9 HR in 201 PA
vs RHB · 0.9 HR/9 · 3 HR in 150 PA
Pitch mix · stuff · HR rating · swing-and-miss · contact
spin 12:37
spin 10:11
spin 1:31
spin 12:37
spin 10:11
spin 1:31
spin 12:37
spin 10:11
spin 1:31
Where he’s hittable · xSLG allowed by zone (vs LHB)
Green = he gives up slug there. Tap a band → out/mid/in cells → each pitch’s xSLG + a cyan contact-allowed bar. Cell splits use 2025–26; display only.
Splits · home/away & batter hand
| HR/9 | HR | Barrel | FB% | K% | ERA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.12 | 5 | — | — | 25% | 2.23 |
| Away | 1.02 | 4 | — | — | 35% | 2.04 |
| vs LHB | 1.56 | 9 | 13% | 24% | 30% | — |
| vs RHB | 0.91 | 3 | 14% | 24% | 25% | — |
HR = home runs allowed (season-to-date). ERA isn’t reported by batter hand, and barrel/FB% aren’t available by home/away — those cells show —.
Pitcher summary · vs LHB
Chase Burns carries a 1.28 HR/9 and gave up 0 in his last outing (2 over his last 3). Lefties have taken him deep 9 of 12 times (1.6 HR/9 to LHB).
Chase Petty • RHP (CIN)NYM @ CIN | vs NYM1/1 W–L • 5.54 ERA • 3 Ks • 1.15 WHIP1.5 HR/9 • 14% Barrel • 24% FB • 14% K • 5.54 ERA (H 5.40 / A 5.68)▬ Holding steady1.35hittability
Chase Petty • RHP (CIN)
NYM @ CIN | vs NYM
1/1 W–L • 5.54 ERA • 3 Ks • 1.15 WHIP
1.5 HR/9 • 14% Barrel • 24% FB • 14% K • 5.54 ERA (H 5.40 / A 5.68)
▬ Holding steady
1.35
hittability
Last 3 outings · IP / pitches / HR
▬ Holding steady No big change in his home-run risk lately.
06/13 1.2 IP · 26 P relief0 HR
06/10 0.2 IP · 17 P relief1 HR
05/23 5.0 IP · 62 P1 HR
Pitches to target · go-deep pitches
The pitches he's given up the most homers on — and the bats most likely to punish them.
vs lefty batsno clear target
Most likely to capitalize: Soto 29%, Baty 17%, Benge 16%
vs righty batssinker · slider
Most likely to capitalize: Alvarez 18%, Bichette 16%, Melendez 14%
HR hittability vs a league-average hitter · longer + greener = easier to take deep
vs LHB · 0.9 HR/9 · 0 HR in 30 PA
vs RHB · 1.8 HR/9 · 3 HR in 36 PA
Pitch mix · stuff · HR rating · swing-and-miss · contact
Splits · home/away & batter hand
| HR/9 | HR | Barrel | FB% | K% | ERA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.35 | 1 | — | — | 7% | 5.40 |
| Away | 2.84 | 2 | — | — | 4% | 5.68 |
| vs LHB | 0.87 | 0 | 13% | 25% | 18% | — |
| vs RHB | 1.81 | 3 | 15% | 23% | 16% | — |
HR = home runs allowed (season-to-date). ERA isn’t reported by batter hand, and barrel/FB% aren’t available by home/away — those cells show —.
Pitcher summary · vs LHB
Chase Petty carries a 1.48 HR/9 and gave up 0 in his last outing (2 over his last 3). He owns a 5.40 ERA at home.
Zach Maxwell • RHP (CIN)NYM @ CIN | vs NYM0/1 W–L • 10.00 ERA • 8 Ks • 2.33 WHIP1.7 HR/9 • 14% Barrel • 29% FB • 20% K • 10.00 ERA (H 1.80 / A 20.25)▬ Holding steady1.18hittability
Zach Maxwell • RHP (CIN)
NYM @ CIN | vs NYM
0/1 W–L • 10.00 ERA • 8 Ks • 2.33 WHIP
1.7 HR/9 • 14% Barrel • 29% FB • 20% K • 10.00 ERA (H 1.80 / A 20.25)
▬ Holding steady
1.18
hittability
Last 3 games · IP / pitches / HR
▬ Holding steady No big change in his home-run risk lately.
06/14 1.0 IP · 27 P1 HR
06/12 1.0 IP · 32 P0 HR
06/10 1.0 IP · 24 P0 HR
Pitches to target · go-deep pitches
The pitches he's given up the most homers on — and the bats most likely to punish them.
vs lefty batsno clear target
Most likely to capitalize: Soto 29%, Baty 17%, Benge 16%
vs righty bats4-seam
Most likely to capitalize: Alvarez 18%, Bichette 16%, Melendez 14%
HR hittability vs a league-average hitter · longer + greener = easier to take deep
vs LHB · 0.9 HR/9 · 0 HR in 24 PA
vs RHB · 2.0 HR/9 · 3 HR in 25 PA
Pitch mix · stuff · HR rating · swing-and-miss · contact
Splits · home/away & batter hand
| HR/9 | HR | Barrel | FB% | K% | ERA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.80 | 1 | — | — | 22% | 1.80 |
| Away | 4.50 | 2 | — | — | 12% | 20.25 |
| vs LHB | 0.92 | 0 | 14% | 26% | 24% | — |
| vs RHB | 2.00 | 3 | 13% | 26% | 18% | — |
HR = home runs allowed (season-to-date). ERA isn’t reported by batter hand, and barrel/FB% aren’t available by home/away — those cells show —.
Pitcher summary · vs LHB
Zach Maxwell carries a 1.71 HR/9 and gave up 1 in his last outing.
Tony Santillan • RHP (CIN)NYM @ CIN | vs NYM1/3 W–L • 5.67 ERA • 25 Ks • 1.52 WHIP2.5 HR/9 • 19% Barrel • 28% FB • 22% K • 5.67 ERA (H 10.13 / A 1.32)◐ Homer-prone on the year, quieter last 31.15hittability
Tony Santillan • RHP (CIN)
NYM @ CIN | vs NYM
1/3 W–L • 5.67 ERA • 25 Ks • 1.52 WHIP
2.5 HR/9 • 19% Barrel • 28% FB • 22% K • 5.67 ERA (H 10.13 / A 1.32)
◐ Homer-prone on the year, quieter last 3
1.15
hittability
Last 3 games · IP / pitches / HR
◐ Homer-prone on the year, quieter last 3 Homer-prone over the full season — the quiet recent stretch is a small sample the model discounts.
06/13 1.0 IP · 14 P0 HR
06/10 0.2 IP · 9 P0 HR
06/09 1.0 IP · 16 P0 HR
Pitches to target · go-deep pitches
The pitches he's given up the most homers on — and the bats most likely to punish them.
vs lefty batsslurve · 4-seam
Most likely to capitalize: Soto 29%, Baty 17%, Benge 16%
vs righty bats4-seam · slurve
Most likely to capitalize: Alvarez 18%, Bichette 16%, Melendez 14%
HR hittability vs a league-average hitter · longer + greener = easier to take deep
vs LHB · 1.9 HR/9 · 5 HR in 67 PA
vs RHB · 2.2 HR/9 · 6 HR in 67 PA
Pitch mix · stuff · HR rating · swing-and-miss · contact
Splits · home/away & batter hand
| HR/9 | HR | Barrel | FB% | K% | ERA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 5.40 | 8 | — | — | 21% | 10.13 |
| Away | 0.66 | 1 | — | — | 21% | 1.32 |
| vs LHB | 1.95 | 5 | 17% | 27% | 17% | — |
| vs RHB | 2.20 | 6 | 16% | 25% | 27% | — |
HR = home runs allowed (season-to-date). ERA isn’t reported by batter hand, and barrel/FB% aren’t available by home/away — those cells show —.
Pitcher summary · vs LHB
Tony Santillan carries a 2.53 HR/9. Lefties have taken him deep 5 of 11 times (2.8 HR/9 to LHB). He owns a 10.13 ERA at home.
Brock Burke • LHP (CIN)NYM @ CIN | vs NYM2/3 W–L • 3.00 ERA • 30 Ks • 1.42 WHIP0.8 HR/9 • 13% Barrel • 29% FB • 21% K • 3.00 ERA (H 1.00 / A 5.40)◐ Homer-prone on the year, quieter last 30.92hittability
Brock Burke • LHP (CIN)
NYM @ CIN | vs NYM
2/3 W–L • 3.00 ERA • 30 Ks • 1.42 WHIP
0.8 HR/9 • 13% Barrel • 29% FB • 21% K • 3.00 ERA (H 1.00 / A 5.40)
◐ Homer-prone on the year, quieter last 3
0.92
hittability
Last 3 games · IP / pitches / HR
◐ Homer-prone on the year, quieter last 3 Homer-prone over the full season — the quiet recent stretch is a small sample the model discounts.
06/12 1.0 IP · 28 P0 HR
06/09 1.2 IP · 14 P0 HR
06/07 1.0 IP · 14 P0 HR
Not enough data for this view.
HR hittability vs a league-average hitter · longer + greener = easier to take deep
vs LHB · 0.9 HR/9 · 1 HR in 72 PA
vs RHB · 1.0 HR/9 · 2 HR in 87 PA
Pitch mix · stuff · HR rating · swing-and-miss · contact
Splits · home/away & batter hand
| HR/9 | HR | Barrel | FB% | K% | ERA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 0.50 | 1 | — | — | 18% | 1.00 |
| Away | 1.20 | 2 | — | — | 24% | 5.40 |
| vs LHB | 0.88 | 1 | 12% | 29% | 20% | — |
| vs RHB | 1.03 | 2 | 15% | 24% | 23% | — |
HR = home runs allowed (season-to-date). ERA isn’t reported by batter hand, and barrel/FB% aren’t available by home/away — those cells show —.
Pitcher summary · vs LHB
Brock Burke carries a 0.85 HR/9.
Tejay Antone • RHP (CIN)NYM @ CIN | vs NYM1/0 W–L • 3.24 ERA • 14 Ks • 1.02 WHIP1.2 HR/9 • 12% Barrel • 24% FB • 23% K • 3.24 ERA (H 2.89 / A 3.68)▲ Easier to take deep lately0.89hittability
Tejay Antone • RHP (CIN)
NYM @ CIN | vs NYM
1/0 W–L • 3.24 ERA • 14 Ks • 1.02 WHIP
1.2 HR/9 • 12% Barrel • 24% FB • 23% K • 3.24 ERA (H 2.89 / A 3.68)
▲ Easier to take deep lately
0.89
hittability
Last 3 games · IP / pitches / HR
▲ Easier to take deep lately This pitcher is trending toward giving up home runs.
06/14 1.0 IP · 15 P1 HR
06/12 1.2 IP · 21 P0 HR
06/09 1.0 IP · 16 P0 HR
Pitches to target · go-deep pitches
The pitches he's given up the most homers on — and the bats most likely to punish them.
vs lefty batscutter
Most likely to capitalize: Soto 29%, Baty 17%, Benge 16%
vs righty batsno clear target
Most likely to capitalize: Alvarez 18%, Bichette 16%, Melendez 14%
HR hittability vs a league-average hitter · longer + greener = easier to take deep
vs LHB · 1.5 HR/9 · 2 HR in 35 PA
vs RHB · 1.0 HR/9 · 1 HR in 61 PA
Pitch mix · stuff · HR rating · swing-and-miss · contact
Splits · home/away & batter hand
| HR/9 | HR | Barrel | FB% | K% | ERA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 0.96 | 1 | — | — | 19% | 2.89 |
| Away | 1.23 | 1 | — | — | 21% | 3.68 |
| vs LHB | 1.50 | 2 | 15% | 25% | 19% | — |
| vs RHB | 0.95 | 1 | 12% | 23% | 25% | — |
HR = home runs allowed (season-to-date). ERA isn’t reported by batter hand, and barrel/FB% aren’t available by home/away — those cells show —.
Pitcher summary · vs LHB
Tejay Antone carries a 1.19 HR/9 and gave up 1 in his last outing.
Caleb Ferguson • LHP (CIN)NYM @ CIN | vs NYM0/0 W–L • 2.08 ERA • 9 Ks • 1.15 WHIP0.7 HR/9 • 14% Barrel • 20% FB • 22% K • 2.08 ERA (H 0.00 / A 6.00)▬ Holding steady0.89hittability
Caleb Ferguson • LHP (CIN)
NYM @ CIN | vs NYM
0/0 W–L • 2.08 ERA • 9 Ks • 1.15 WHIP
0.7 HR/9 • 14% Barrel • 20% FB • 22% K • 2.08 ERA (H 0.00 / A 6.00)
▬ Holding steady
0.89
hittability
Last 3 games · IP / pitches / HR
▬ Holding steady No big change in his home-run risk lately.
06/13 0.2 IP · 20 P0 HR
06/10 0.1 IP · 15 P0 HR
06/09 0.1 IP · 3 P0 HR
Not enough data for this view.
HR hittability vs a league-average hitter · longer + greener = easier to take deep
vs LHB · 0.9 HR/9 · 0 HR in 22 PA
vs RHB · 1.0 HR/9 · 0 HR in 19 PA
Pitch mix · stuff · HR rating · swing-and-miss · contact
Splits · home/away & batter hand
| HR/9 | HR | Barrel | FB% | K% | ERA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 0.00 | 0 | — | — | 32% | 0.00 |
| Away | 0.00 | 0 | — | — | 13% | 6.00 |
| vs LHB | 0.94 | 0 | 16% | 21% | 21% | — |
| vs RHB | 0.97 | 0 | 12% | 23% | 23% | — |
HR = home runs allowed (season-to-date). ERA isn’t reported by batter hand, and barrel/FB% aren’t available by home/away — those cells show —.
Pitcher summary · vs LHB
Caleb Ferguson carries a 0.71 HR/9.
Sam Moll • LHP (CIN)NYM @ CIN | vs NYM1/5 W–L • 2.79 ERA • 31 Ks • 1.17 WHIP0.9 HR/9 • 11% Barrel • 19% FB • 24% K • 2.79 ERA (H 4.15 / A 1.69)◐ Homer-prone on the year, quieter last 30.76hittability
Sam Moll • LHP (CIN)
NYM @ CIN | vs NYM
1/5 W–L • 2.79 ERA • 31 Ks • 1.17 WHIP
0.9 HR/9 • 11% Barrel • 19% FB • 24% K • 2.79 ERA (H 4.15 / A 1.69)
◐ Homer-prone on the year, quieter last 3
0.76
hittability
Last 3 games · IP / pitches / HR
◐ Homer-prone on the year, quieter last 3 Homer-prone over the full season — the quiet recent stretch is a small sample the model discounts.
06/14 1.0 IP · 12 P0 HR
06/09 0.2 IP · 13 P0 HR
06/07 0.0 IP · 16 P0 HR
Pitches to target · go-deep pitches
The pitches he's given up the most homers on — and the bats most likely to punish them.
vs lefty batssweeper
Most likely to capitalize: Soto 29%, Baty 17%, Benge 16%
vs righty bats4-seam
Most likely to capitalize: Alvarez 18%, Bichette 16%, Melendez 14%
HR hittability vs a league-average hitter · longer + greener = easier to take deep
vs LHB · 1.1 HR/9 · 2 HR in 74 PA
vs RHB · 0.9 HR/9 · 1 HR in 69 PA
Pitch mix · stuff · HR rating · swing-and-miss · contact
Splits · home/away & batter hand
| HR/9 | HR | Barrel | FB% | K% | ERA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.38 | 2 | — | — | 20% | 4.15 |
| Away | 0.56 | 1 | — | — | 29% | 1.69 |
| vs LHB | 1.12 | 2 | 11% | 22% | 25% | — |
| vs RHB | 0.90 | 1 | 14% | 20% | 22% | — |
HR = home runs allowed (season-to-date). ERA isn’t reported by batter hand, and barrel/FB% aren’t available by home/away — those cells show —.
Pitcher summary · vs LHB
Sam Moll carries a 0.92 HR/9.
Pick who he’ll face
Matchup vs Chase BurnsB
Arms like Chase Burns
Most similar arsenals (velocity, movement, mix): Jacob deGrom, Dylan Cease, Joe Boyle, Michael Petersen, Jordan Leasure, Jacob Misiorowski.
vs arms like this (since 2025), 1 HR in 18 PA (5.6% · league ~3%).
Matchup vs Chase PettyA · ×1.25
Arms like Chase Petty
Most similar arsenals (velocity, movement, mix): Jaden Hill, Alex Lange, Sandy Alcantara, Lucas Erceg, Taylor Clarke, Cole Wilcox.
vs arms like this (since 2025), 2 HR in 38 PA (5.3% · league ~3%).
Matchup vs Zach MaxwellA · ×1.36
Matchup vs Tony SantillanA · ×1.35
Arms like Tony Santillan
Most similar arsenals (velocity, movement, mix): Didier Fuentes, Bryan Woo, Enyel De Los Santos, Cade Smith, Isaac Mattson, Peyton Pallette.
vs arms like this (since 2025), 2 HR in 21 PA (9.5% · league ~3%).
Matchup vs Brock BurkeA · ×1.30
Arms like Brock Burke
Most similar arsenals (velocity, movement, mix): Carlos Rodón, Justin Wrobleski, Daniel Lynch IV, Jacob Latz, Yusei Kikuchi, Robbie Ray.
vs arms like this (since 2025), 2 HR in 34 PA (5.9% · league ~3%).
Matchup vs Tejay AntoneA · ×1.29
Matchup vs Caleb FergusonA · ×1.18
Arms like Caleb Ferguson
Most similar arsenals (velocity, movement, mix): Sean Newcomb, Garrett Crochet, Enmanuel De Jesus, Payton Tolle, Anthony Kay, Noah Schultz.
vs arms like this (since 2025), 0 HR in 27 PA (0.0% · league ~3%).
Matchup vs Sam MollA · ×1.25
Arms like Sam Moll
Most similar arsenals (velocity, movement, mix): JoJo Romero, Justin Bruihl, Richard Lovelady, Brooks Raley, Brant Hurter, Taylor Rogers.
vs arms like this (since 2025), 4 HR in 34 PA (11.8% · league ~3%).
Kyle Schwarber LPHI HOME vs Ryan Gusto R · PHIwind 1.00park 1.10brl 27%recent 23%29%MatchupB+243
Kyle Schwarber L
PHI HOME vs Ryan Gusto R · PHI
wind 1.00park 1.10brl 27%recent 23%
29%
MatchupB
+243
Kyle Schwarber L
PHI HOME vs Ryan Gusto R · PHI
wind 1.00park 1.10brl 27%recent 23%
29%
Matchup summary · vs Ryan Gusto
Batter Summary 📈 Trending up
Schwarber has 16 of his 24 HRs off RHP, 49% hard-hit that side. 14 of his 24 HRs have come at home, slugging .664 there.
Form Last ~3 weeks (recency-weighted): .448 xwOBAcon (lg .372), 23% well-hit (lg 14%), 45% hard-hit · 2 HR in 43 PA. Recent contact quality is beating league — the rating catches the heat before the HR totals show it.
Ranking Reasoning
Strong HR spot.
The park favors LH power, big power vs RHP (22% barrels) and holds power in two-strike counts.
The park favors LH power, big power vs RHP (22% barrels) and holds power in two-strike counts.
🏟️ Homered here 47× at this park (since ’25)
Pitch by Pitch
Pitch-by-pitch · Petersen throws / Schwarber hits
Stuff & usage = the arm’s; whiff / contact / EV / barrel / air-ground / HR = Schwarber’s 2026 vs RHP · green = bat’s edge
4-Seam—59% used
Whiff
26%
Contact
74%
EV
95
Barrel
5%
Air/Gnd
36/18
HR
3
22 BBE
Slider—27% used
Whiff
34%
Contact
66%
EV
97
Barrel
25%
Air/Gnd
38/25
HR
3
16 BBE
Change—14% used
Whiff
42%
Contact
58%
EV
97
Barrel
20%
Air/Gnd
50/10
HR
3
10 BBE
Pitch-by-pitch · Zuber throws / Schwarber hits
Stuff & usage = the arm’s; whiff / contact / EV / barrel / air-ground / HR = Schwarber’s 2026 vs RHP · green = bat’s edge
4-Seam—34% used
Whiff
26%
Contact
74%
EV
95
Barrel
5%
Air/Gnd
36/18
HR
3
22 BBE
Sweeper—20% used
Whiff
59%
Contact
41%
EV
87
Barrel
33%
Air/Gnd
33/33
HR
1
3 BBE
Slider—20% used
Whiff
34%
Contact
66%
EV
97
Barrel
25%
Air/Gnd
38/25
HR
3
16 BBE
Change—18% used
Whiff
42%
Contact
58%
EV
97
Barrel
20%
Air/Gnd
50/10
HR
3
10 BBE
Sinker—7% used
Whiff
13%
Contact
87%
EV
96
Barrel
29%
Air/Gnd
43/14
HR
3
7 BBE
Pitch-by-pitch · Fairbanks throws / Schwarber hits
Stuff & usage = the arm’s; whiff / contact / EV / barrel / air-ground / HR = Schwarber’s 2026 vs RHP · green = bat’s edge
4-Seam—49% used
Whiff
26%
Contact
74%
EV
95
Barrel
5%
Air/Gnd
36/18
HR
3
22 BBE
Slider—34% used
Whiff
34%
Contact
66%
EV
97
Barrel
25%
Air/Gnd
38/25
HR
3
16 BBE
Cutter—10% used
Whiff
18%
Contact
82%
EV
96
Barrel
9%
Air/Gnd
27/36
HR
1
11 BBE
Change—7% used
Whiff
42%
Contact
58%
EV
97
Barrel
20%
Air/Gnd
50/10
HR
3
10 BBE
Pitch-by-pitch · Bachar throws / Schwarber hits
Stuff & usage = the arm’s; whiff / contact / EV / barrel / air-ground / HR = Schwarber’s 2026 vs RHP · green = bat’s edge
4-Seam—38% used
Whiff
26%
Contact
74%
EV
95
Barrel
5%
Air/Gnd
36/18
HR
3
22 BBE
Slider—25% used
Whiff
34%
Contact
66%
EV
97
Barrel
25%
Air/Gnd
38/25
HR
3
16 BBE
Sweeper—17% used
Whiff
59%
Contact
41%
EV
87
Barrel
33%
Air/Gnd
33/33
HR
1
3 BBE
Splitter—15% used
Whiff
46%
Contact
54%
EV
84
Barrel
0%
Air/Gnd
14/43
HR
1
7 BBE
Curve—4% used
Whiff
52%
Contact
48%
EV
90
Barrel
17%
Air/Gnd
17/33
HR
1
6 BBE
Pitch-by-pitch · Kempner throws / Schwarber hits
Stuff & usage = the arm’s; whiff / contact / EV / barrel / air-ground / HR = Schwarber’s 2026 vs RHP · green = bat’s edge
4-Seam—76% used
Whiff
26%
Contact
74%
EV
95
Barrel
5%
Air/Gnd
36/18
HR
3
22 BBE
Sweeper—18% used
Whiff
59%
Contact
41%
EV
87
Barrel
33%
Air/Gnd
33/33
HR
1
3 BBE
Change—5% used
Whiff
42%
Contact
58%
EV
97
Barrel
20%
Air/Gnd
50/10
HR
3
10 BBE
Pitch-by-pitch · King throws / Schwarber hits
Stuff & usage = the arm’s; whiff / contact / EV / barrel / air-ground / HR = Schwarber’s 2026 vs LHP · green = bat’s edge
Sinker—52% used
Whiff
15%
Contact
85%
EV
90
Barrel
10%
Air/Gnd
29/48
HR
2
21 BBE
Slider—30% used
Whiff
35%
Contact
65%
EV
78
Barrel
0%
Air/Gnd
14/43
HR
0
7 BBE
Sweeper—7% used
Whiff
41%
Contact
59%
EV
88
Barrel
0%
Air/Gnd
25/50
HR
0
4 BBE
Change—7% used
Whiff
33%
Contact
67%
EV
—
Barrel
—
Air/Gnd
—
HR
—
thin 2026
Pitch-by-pitch · Bender throws / Schwarber hits
Stuff & usage = the arm’s; whiff / contact / EV / barrel / air-ground / HR = Schwarber’s 2026 vs RHP · green = bat’s edge
Slider—35% used
Whiff
34%
Contact
66%
EV
97
Barrel
25%
Air/Gnd
38/25
HR
3
16 BBE
Sweeper—31% used
Whiff
59%
Contact
41%
EV
87
Barrel
33%
Air/Gnd
33/33
HR
1
3 BBE
Sinker—24% used
Whiff
13%
Contact
87%
EV
96
Barrel
29%
Air/Gnd
43/14
HR
3
7 BBE
Change—8% used
Whiff
42%
Contact
58%
EV
97
Barrel
20%
Air/Gnd
50/10
HR
3
10 BBE
Pitch-by-pitch · Gibson throws / Schwarber hits
Stuff & usage = the arm’s; whiff / contact / EV / barrel / air-ground / HR = Schwarber’s 2026 vs LHP · green = bat’s edge
Sweeper—31% used
Whiff
41%
Contact
59%
EV
88
Barrel
0%
Air/Gnd
25/50
HR
0
4 BBE
Sinker—27% used
Whiff
15%
Contact
85%
EV
90
Barrel
10%
Air/Gnd
29/48
HR
2
21 BBE
Curve—21% used
Whiff
41%
Contact
59%
EV
92
Barrel
20%
Air/Gnd
80/20
HR
1
5 BBE
Slider—11% used
Whiff
35%
Contact
65%
EV
78
Barrel
0%
Air/Gnd
14/43
HR
0
7 BBE
4-Seam—7% used
Whiff
13%
Contact
87%
EV
96
Barrel
12%
Air/Gnd
35/35
HR
4
17 BBE
Pitch-by-pitch · Phillips throws / Schwarber hits
Stuff & usage = the arm’s; whiff / contact / EV / barrel / air-ground / HR = Schwarber’s 2026 vs RHP · green = bat’s edge
Curve—32% used
Whiff
52%
Contact
48%
EV
90
Barrel
17%
Air/Gnd
17/33
HR
1
6 BBE
Splitter—23% used
Whiff
46%
Contact
54%
EV
84
Barrel
0%
Air/Gnd
14/43
HR
1
7 BBE
Sinker—21% used
Whiff
13%
Contact
87%
EV
96
Barrel
29%
Air/Gnd
43/14
HR
3
7 BBE
4-Seam—13% used
Whiff
26%
Contact
74%
EV
95
Barrel
5%
Air/Gnd
36/18
HR
3
22 BBE
Sweeper—10% used
Whiff
59%
Contact
41%
EV
87
Barrel
33%
Air/Gnd
33/33
HR
1
3 BBE
Pitch-by-pitch · Faucher throws / Schwarber hits
Stuff & usage = the arm’s; whiff / contact / EV / barrel / air-ground / HR = Schwarber’s 2026 vs RHP · green = bat’s edge
Cutter—44% used
Whiff
18%
Contact
82%
EV
96
Barrel
9%
Air/Gnd
27/36
HR
1
11 BBE
Curve—26% used
Whiff
52%
Contact
48%
EV
90
Barrel
17%
Air/Gnd
17/33
HR
1
6 BBE
4-Seam—17% used
Whiff
26%
Contact
74%
EV
95
Barrel
5%
Air/Gnd
36/18
HR
3
22 BBE
Sweeper—7% used
Whiff
59%
Contact
41%
EV
87
Barrel
33%
Air/Gnd
33/33
HR
1
3 BBE
Sinker—6% used
Whiff
13%
Contact
87%
EV
96
Barrel
29%
Air/Gnd
43/14
HR
3
7 BBE
🎯 Target
Not enough arsenal data for this arm.
Matchup-Fit · barrel alignment vs Michael Petersen’s arsenal
4-Seam 59% usedbarrels 5% · allows 14% · 3 HR
Slider 27% usedbarrels 25% · allows 9% · 3 HR
Change 14% usedbarrels 20% · allows 11% · 3 HR
Air / Park
Pulls 34% in the air; pull side RF — park ×1.20 → park+wind fits his pull power.
Recent form · last 5
Barrel 0% · EV 91 · 1 HR over his last 5.
Matchup-Fit · barrel alignment vs Tyler Zuber’s arsenal
4-Seam 34% usedbarrels 5% · allows — · 3 HR
Sweeper 20% usedbarrels — · allows — · 1 HR
Slider 20% usedbarrels 25% · allows — · 3 HR
Change 18% usedbarrels 20% · allows — · 3 HR
Sinker 7% usedbarrels 29% · allows — · 3 HR
Air / Park
Pulls 34% in the air; pull side RF — park ×1.20 → park+wind fits his pull power.
Recent form · last 5
Barrel 0% · EV 91 · 1 HR over his last 5.
Matchup-Fit · barrel alignment vs Pete Fairbanks’s arsenal
4-Seam 49% usedbarrels 5% · allows 15% · 3 HR
Slider 34% usedbarrels 25% · allows — · 3 HR
Cutter 10% usedbarrels 9% · allows 33% · 1 HR
Change 7% usedbarrels 20% · allows — · 3 HR
Air / Park
Pulls 34% in the air; pull side RF — park ×1.20 → park+wind fits his pull power.
Recent form · last 5
Barrel 0% · EV 91 · 1 HR over his last 5.
Matchup-Fit · barrel alignment vs Lake Bachar’s arsenal
4-Seam 38% usedbarrels 5% · allows 18% · 3 HR
Slider 25% usedbarrels 25% · allows 0% · 3 HR
Sweeper 17% usedbarrels — · allows 0% · 1 HR
Splitter 15% usedbarrels 0% · allows 0% · 1 HR
Curve 4% usedbarrels 17% · allows — · 1 HR
Air / Park
Pulls 34% in the air; pull side RF — park ×1.20 → park+wind fits his pull power.
Recent form · last 5
Barrel 0% · EV 91 · 1 HR over his last 5.
Matchup-Fit · barrel alignment vs William Kempner’s arsenal
4-Seam 76% usedbarrels 5% · allows — · 3 HR
Sweeper 18% usedbarrels — · allows — · 1 HR
Change 5% usedbarrels 20% · allows — · 3 HR
Air / Park
Pulls 34% in the air; pull side RF — park ×1.20 → park+wind fits his pull power.
Recent form · last 5
Barrel 0% · EV 91 · 1 HR over his last 5.
Matchup-Fit · barrel alignment vs John King’s arsenal
Sinker 52% usedbarrels 10% · allows 0% · 2 HR
Slider 30% usedbarrels 0% · allows 17%
Sweeper 7% usedbarrels 0% · allows 0%
Change 7% usedbarrels — · allows —
Air / Park
Pulls 34% in the air; pull side RF — park ×1.20 → park+wind fits his pull power.
Recent form · last 5
Barrel 0% · EV 91 · 1 HR over his last 5.
Matchup-Fit · barrel alignment vs Anthony Bender’s arsenal
Slider 35% usedbarrels 25% · allows 0% · 3 HR
Sweeper 31% usedbarrels — · allows 0% · 1 HR
Sinker 24% usedbarrels 29% · allows 0% · 3 HR
Change 8% usedbarrels 20% · allows — · 3 HR
Air / Park
Pulls 34% in the air; pull side RF — park ×1.20 → park+wind fits his pull power.
Recent form · last 5
Barrel 0% · EV 91 · 1 HR over his last 5.
Matchup-Fit · barrel alignment vs Cade Gibson’s arsenal
Sweeper 31% usedbarrels 0% · allows 0%
Sinker 27% usedbarrels 10% · allows — · 2 HR
Curve 21% usedbarrels 20% · allows — · 1 HR
Slider 11% usedbarrels 0% · allows —
4-Seam 7% usedbarrels 12% · allows — · 4 HR
Air / Park
Pulls 34% in the air; pull side RF — park ×1.20 → park+wind fits his pull power.
Recent form · last 5
Barrel 0% · EV 91 · 1 HR over his last 5.
Matchup-Fit · barrel alignment vs Tyler Phillips’s arsenal
Curve 32% usedbarrels 17% · allows 0% · 1 HR
Splitter 23% usedbarrels 0% · allows 0% · 1 HR
Sinker 21% usedbarrels 29% · allows 0% · 3 HR
4-Seam 13% usedbarrels 5% · allows 0% · 3 HR
Sweeper 10% usedbarrels — · allows 14% · 1 HR
Air / Park
Pulls 34% in the air; pull side RF — park ×1.20 → park+wind fits his pull power.
Recent form · last 5
Barrel 0% · EV 91 · 1 HR over his last 5.
Matchup-Fit · barrel alignment vs Calvin Faucher’s arsenal
Cutter 44% usedbarrels 9% · allows 5% · 1 HR
Curve 26% usedbarrels 17% · allows 0% · 1 HR
4-Seam 17% usedbarrels 5% · allows — · 3 HR
Sweeper 7% usedbarrels — · allows — · 1 HR
Sinker 6% usedbarrels 29% · allows — · 3 HR
Air / Park
Pulls 34% in the air; pull side RF — park ×1.20 → park+wind fits his pull power.
Recent form · last 5
Barrel 0% · EV 91 · 1 HR over his last 5.
Matchup Lab
Loading…
Batter Stats
Last 5 games · H/AB · K · GB · FB · barrel · EV · HR/FB · HR
| H/AB | K | GB | FB | BRL | EV | HR/FB | HR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5G | 7/20 | 8 | 25% | 17% | 0% | 91 | 50% | 1 |
| 06/14 | 1/4 | 0 | 25% | 25% | 0% | 84 | 0% | 0 |
| 06/13 | 3/5 | 2 | 33% | 0% | 0% | 87 | — | 0 |
| 06/12 | 1/3 | 2 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 103 | — | 0 |
| 06/10 | 2/4 | 2 | 50% | 0% | 0% | 101 | — | 1 |
| 06/09 | 0/4 | 2 | 0% | 50% | 0% | 94 | 0% | 0 |
Swing & Bat Tracking (555 swings)
bat tracking
Bat speed77.0 mph
Swing length7.5 ft
Attack angle14.3°
contact
swing timing
Early28%
On-time63%
Late9%
miss profile
Over24%
Under12%
Tied-up13%
Centered64%
Flailed23%
Batter power & contact · longer + greener = more HR-likely
vs LHP · 9 HR in 129 PA
vs RHP · 17 HR in 199 PA
Matchup strength · longer + greener = more HR-favorable
matchup strength
supporting
Home / Away HR splits · season-to-date
Home HOME14 HR / 148 PA · 9.5%
Home · .664 SLG
Away AWAY10 HR / 158 PA · 6.3%
Away · .478 SLG
Park fit · spray vs this yard
Pulls 34% of contact in the air; his pull side is RF here — HR factor ×1.20 → park fits his pull power.
Pitcher
Ryan Gusto RHP
No stat profile (low sample).
Pitcher summary · vs LHB
PHI ranks 4th in HR factor for LH hitters.
Michael Petersen • RHP (MIA)MIA @ PHI | vs PHI1/1 W–L • 3.07 ERA • 34 Ks • 1.06 WHIP0.6 HR/9 • 16% Barrel • 26% FB • 26% K • 3.07 ERA (H 2.87 / A 3.29)◐ Homer-prone on the year, quieter last 31.03hittability
Michael Petersen • RHP (MIA)
MIA @ PHI | vs PHI
1/1 W–L • 3.07 ERA • 34 Ks • 1.06 WHIP
0.6 HR/9 • 16% Barrel • 26% FB • 26% K • 3.07 ERA (H 2.87 / A 3.29)
◐ Homer-prone on the year, quieter last 3
1.03
hittability
Last 3 games · IP / pitches / HR
◐ Homer-prone on the year, quieter last 3 Homer-prone over the full season — the quiet recent stretch is a small sample the model discounts.
06/13 2.0 IP · 29 P0 HR
06/11 1.0 IP · 14 P0 HR
06/09 1.0 IP · 26 P0 HR
Not enough data for this view.
HR hittability vs a league-average hitter · longer + greener = easier to take deep
vs LHB · 0.8 HR/9 · 1 HR in 78 PA
vs RHB · 0.7 HR/9 · 0 HR in 56 PA
Pitch mix · stuff · HR rating · swing-and-miss · contact
Splits · home/away & batter hand
| HR/9 | HR | Barrel | FB% | K% | ERA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 0.00 | 0 | — | — | 35% | 2.87 |
| Away | 0.66 | 1 | — | — | 21% | 3.29 |
| vs LHB | 0.85 | 1 | 18% | 26% | 25% | — |
| vs RHB | 0.71 | 0 | 12% | 24% | 25% | — |
HR = home runs allowed (season-to-date). ERA isn’t reported by batter hand, and barrel/FB% aren’t available by home/away — those cells show —.
Pitcher summary · vs LHB
Michael Petersen carries a 0.57 HR/9. PHI ranks 4th in HR factor for LH hitters.
Tyler Zuber • RHP (MIA)MIA @ PHI | vs PHI0/0 W–L • 10.13 ERA • 3 Ks • 1.50 WHIP0.8 HR/9 • 12% Barrel • 27% FB • 24% K • 10.13 ERA (H 16.20 / A 0.00)▬ Holding steady1.01hittability
Tyler Zuber • RHP (MIA)
MIA @ PHI | vs PHI
0/0 W–L • 10.13 ERA • 3 Ks • 1.50 WHIP
0.8 HR/9 • 12% Barrel • 27% FB • 24% K • 10.13 ERA (H 16.20 / A 0.00)
▬ Holding steady
1.01
hittability
Last 3 games · IP / pitches / HR
▬ Holding steady No big change in his home-run risk lately.
06/14 1.0 IP · 16 P0 HR
06/09 0.1 IP · 15 P0 HR
06/06 0.1 IP · 5 P0 HR
Not enough data for this view.
HR hittability vs a league-average hitter · longer + greener = easier to take deep
vs LHB · 1.1 HR/9 · 0 HR in 11 PA
vs RHB · 1.0 HR/9 · 0 HR in 14 PA
Pitch mix · stuff · HR rating · swing-and-miss · contact
Splits · home/away & batter hand
| HR/9 | HR | Barrel | FB% | K% | ERA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 0.00 | 0 | — | — | 30% | 16.20 |
| Away | 0.00 | 0 | — | — | 0% | 0.00 |
| vs LHB | 1.05 | 0 | 13% | 24% | 20% | — |
| vs RHB | 1.02 | 0 | 13% | 25% | 26% | — |
HR = home runs allowed (season-to-date). ERA isn’t reported by batter hand, and barrel/FB% aren’t available by home/away — those cells show —.
Pitcher summary · vs LHB
Tyler Zuber carries a 0.85 HR/9. PHI ranks 4th in HR factor for LH hitters.
Pete Fairbanks • RHP (MIA)MIA @ PHI | vs PHI3/3 W–L • 6.75 ERA • 29 Ks • 1.45 WHIP1.4 HR/9 • 15% Barrel • 29% FB • 28% K • 6.75 ERA (H 2.92 / A 12.91)▬ Holding steady0.95hittability
Pete Fairbanks • RHP (MIA)
MIA @ PHI | vs PHI
3/3 W–L • 6.75 ERA • 29 Ks • 1.45 WHIP
1.4 HR/9 • 15% Barrel • 29% FB • 28% K • 6.75 ERA (H 2.92 / A 12.91)
▬ Holding steady
0.95
hittability
Last 3 games · IP / pitches / HR
▬ Holding steady No big change in his home-run risk lately.
06/14 1.0 IP · 14 P1 HR
06/11 1.0 IP · 13 P0 HR
06/09 1.0 IP · 24 P0 HR
Pitches to target · go-deep pitches
The pitches he's given up the most homers on — and the bats most likely to punish them.
vs lefty bats4-seam
Most likely to capitalize: Schwarber 29%, Harper 27%, Marsh 22%
vs righty batsno clear target
Most likely to capitalize: Sosa 12%, Turner 11%, Realmuto 11%
HR hittability vs a league-average hitter · longer + greener = easier to take deep
vs LHB · 1.8 HR/9 · 4 HR in 59 PA
vs RHB · 0.8 HR/9 · 0 HR in 41 PA
Pitch mix · stuff · HR rating · swing-and-miss · contact
Splits · home/away & batter hand
| HR/9 | HR | Barrel | FB% | K% | ERA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 0.73 | 1 | — | — | 41% | 2.92 |
| Away | 3.52 | 3 | — | — | 22% | 12.91 |
| vs LHB | 1.78 | 4 | 16% | 28% | 24% | — |
| vs RHB | 0.79 | 0 | 12% | 24% | 28% | — |
HR = home runs allowed (season-to-date). ERA isn’t reported by batter hand, and barrel/FB% aren’t available by home/away — those cells show —.
Pitcher summary · vs LHB
Pete Fairbanks carries a 1.40 HR/9 and gave up 1 in his last outing. Lefties have taken him deep 4 of 4 times (3.5 HR/9 to LHB). He owns a 12.91 ERA on the road. PHI ranks 4th in HR factor for LH hitters.
Lake Bachar • RHP (MIA)MIA @ PHI | vs PHI0/0 W–L • 3.05 ERA • 45 Ks • 0.91 WHIP1.0 HR/9 • 10% Barrel • 27% FB • 29% K • 3.05 ERA (H 1.40 / A 4.74)▬ Holding steady0.88hittability
Lake Bachar • RHP (MIA)
MIA @ PHI | vs PHI
0/0 W–L • 3.05 ERA • 45 Ks • 0.91 WHIP
1.0 HR/9 • 10% Barrel • 27% FB • 29% K • 3.05 ERA (H 1.40 / A 4.74)
▬ Holding steady
0.88
hittability
Last 3 outings · IP / pitches / HR
▬ Holding steady No big change in his home-run risk lately.
06/13 2.0 IP · 42 P0 HR
06/10 2.0 IP · 36 P relief0 HR
06/06 3.0 IP · 38 P0 HR
Pitches to target · go-deep pitches
The pitches he's given up the most homers on — and the bats most likely to punish them.
vs lefty batsno clear target
Most likely to capitalize: Schwarber 29%, Harper 27%, Marsh 22%
vs righty bats4-seam · slider
Most likely to capitalize: Sosa 12%, Turner 11%, Realmuto 11%
HR hittability vs a league-average hitter · longer + greener = easier to take deep
vs LHB · 0.8 HR/9 · 1 HR in 84 PA
vs RHB · 1.4 HR/9 · 3 HR in 72 PA
Pitch mix · stuff · HR rating · swing-and-miss · contact
Splits · home/away & batter hand
| HR/9 | HR | Barrel | FB% | K% | ERA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 0.47 | 1 | — | — | 28% | 1.40 |
| Away | 1.89 | 4 | — | — | 31% | 4.74 |
| vs LHB | 0.82 | 1 | 12% | 24% | 26% | — |
| vs RHB | 1.38 | 3 | 12% | 28% | 29% | — |
HR = home runs allowed (season-to-date). ERA isn’t reported by batter hand, and barrel/FB% aren’t available by home/away — those cells show —.
Pitcher summary · vs LHB
Lake Bachar carries a 1.04 HR/9. Lefties have taken him deep 1 of 4 times (0.9 HR/9 to LHB). PHI ranks 4th in HR factor for LH hitters.
William Kempner • RHP (MIA)MIA @ PHI | vs PHI1/0 W–L • 0.00 ERA • 8 Ks • 0.75 WHIP0.8 HR/9 • 14% Barrel • 22% FB • 26% K • 0.00 ERA (H 0.00 / A 0.00)▬ Holding steady0.88hittability
William Kempner • RHP (MIA)
MIA @ PHI | vs PHI
1/0 W–L • 0.00 ERA • 8 Ks • 0.75 WHIP
0.8 HR/9 • 14% Barrel • 22% FB • 26% K • 0.00 ERA (H 0.00 / A 0.00)
▬ Holding steady
0.88
hittability
Last 3 games · IP / pitches / HR
▬ Holding steady No big change in his home-run risk lately.
06/10 2.0 IP · 36 P0 HR
06/05 1.1 IP · 13 P0 HR
05/31 1.1 IP · 28 P0 HR
Not enough data for this view.
HR hittability vs a league-average hitter · longer + greener = easier to take deep
vs LHB · 1.0 HR/9 · 0 HR in 17 PA
vs RHB · 1.0 HR/9 · 0 HR in 14 PA
Pitch mix · stuff · HR rating · swing-and-miss · contact
Splits · home/away & batter hand
| HR/9 | HR | Barrel | FB% | K% | ERA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 0.00 | 0 | — | — | 31% | 0.00 |
| Away | 0.00 | 0 | — | — | 33% | 0.00 |
| vs LHB | 0.99 | 0 | 13% | 26% | 29% | — |
| vs RHB | 1.02 | 0 | 15% | 20% | 20% | — |
HR = home runs allowed (season-to-date). ERA isn’t reported by batter hand, and barrel/FB% aren’t available by home/away — those cells show —.
Pitcher summary · vs LHB
William Kempner carries a 0.79 HR/9. PHI ranks 4th in HR factor for LH hitters.
John King • LHP (MIA)MIA @ PHI | vs PHI3/1 W–L • 2.48 ERA • 22 Ks • 0.72 WHIP1.0 HR/9 • 11% Barrel • 22% FB • 22% K • 2.48 ERA (H 0.00 / A 4.15)▬ Holding steady0.88hittability
John King • LHP (MIA)
MIA @ PHI | vs PHI
3/1 W–L • 2.48 ERA • 22 Ks • 0.72 WHIP
1.0 HR/9 • 11% Barrel • 22% FB • 22% K • 2.48 ERA (H 0.00 / A 4.15)
▬ Holding steady
0.88
hittability
Last 3 games · IP / pitches / HR
▬ Holding steady No big change in his home-run risk lately.
06/13 0.2 IP · 11 P0 HR
06/12 1.0 IP · 18 P0 HR
06/06 0.2 IP · 4 P0 HR
Pitches to target · go-deep pitches
The pitches he's given up the most homers on — and the bats most likely to punish them.
vs lefty batsslider
Most likely to capitalize: Schwarber 29%, Harper 27%, Marsh 22%
vs righty batsno clear target
Most likely to capitalize: Sosa 12%, Turner 11%, Realmuto 11%
HR hittability vs a league-average hitter · longer + greener = easier to take deep
vs LHB · 1.2 HR/9 · 2 HR in 63 PA
vs RHB · 0.9 HR/9 · 1 HR in 64 PA
Pitch mix · stuff · HR rating · swing-and-miss · contact
Splits · home/away & batter hand
| HR/9 | HR | Barrel | FB% | K% | ERA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 0.00 | 0 | — | — | 25% | 0.00 |
| Away | 1.56 | 3 | — | — | 17% | 4.15 |
| vs LHB | 1.20 | 2 | 14% | 22% | 22% | — |
| vs RHB | 0.93 | 1 | 11% | 22% | 22% | — |
HR = home runs allowed (season-to-date). ERA isn’t reported by batter hand, and barrel/FB% aren’t available by home/away — those cells show —.
Pitcher summary · vs LHB
John King carries a 0.99 HR/9. PHI ranks 4th in HR factor for LH hitters.
Anthony Bender • RHP (MIA)MIA @ PHI | vs PHI1/1 W–L • 3.07 ERA • 36 Ks • 0.95 WHIP0.6 HR/9 • 10% Barrel • 24% FB • 28% K • 3.07 ERA (H 1.65 / A 4.85)▼ Tougher to homer off lately0.86hittability
Anthony Bender • RHP (MIA)
MIA @ PHI | vs PHI
1/1 W–L • 3.07 ERA • 36 Ks • 0.95 WHIP
0.6 HR/9 • 10% Barrel • 24% FB • 28% K • 3.07 ERA (H 1.65 / A 4.85)
▼ Tougher to homer off lately
0.86
hittability
Last 3 games · IP / pitches / HR
▼ Tougher to homer off lately This pitcher is trending the right way — fewer homers.
06/13 1.0 IP · 27 P0 HR
06/11 1.0 IP · 19 P0 HR
06/09 0.2 IP · 11 P0 HR
Pitches to target · go-deep pitches
The pitches he's given up the most homers on — and the bats most likely to punish them.
vs lefty batsno clear target
Most likely to capitalize: Schwarber 29%, Harper 27%, Marsh 22%
vs righty batssinker
Most likely to capitalize: Sosa 12%, Turner 11%, Realmuto 11%
HR hittability vs a league-average hitter · longer + greener = easier to take deep
vs LHB · 0.7 HR/9 · 0 HR in 59 PA
vs RHB · 0.9 HR/9 · 1 HR in 70 PA
Pitch mix · stuff · HR rating · swing-and-miss · contact
Splits · home/away & batter hand
| HR/9 | HR | Barrel | FB% | K% | ERA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 0.00 | 0 | — | — | 37% | 1.65 |
| Away | 0.69 | 1 | — | — | 22% | 4.85 |
| vs LHB | 0.69 | 0 | 12% | 22% | 27% | — |
| vs RHB | 0.89 | 1 | 11% | 25% | 26% | — |
HR = home runs allowed (season-to-date). ERA isn’t reported by batter hand, and barrel/FB% aren’t available by home/away — those cells show —.
Pitcher summary · vs LHB
Anthony Bender carries a 0.58 HR/9. PHI ranks 4th in HR factor for LH hitters.
Cade Gibson • LHP (MIA)MIA @ PHI | vs PHI0/0 W–L • 5.73 ERA • 11 Ks • 1.82 WHIP0.8 HR/9 • 13% Barrel • 20% FB • 20% K • 5.73 ERA (H 11.57 / A 1.42)◐ Homer-prone on the year, quieter last 30.85hittability
Cade Gibson • LHP (MIA)
MIA @ PHI | vs PHI
0/0 W–L • 5.73 ERA • 11 Ks • 1.82 WHIP
0.8 HR/9 • 13% Barrel • 20% FB • 20% K • 5.73 ERA (H 11.57 / A 1.42)
◐ Homer-prone on the year, quieter last 3
0.85
hittability
Last 3 games · IP / pitches / HR
◐ Homer-prone on the year, quieter last 3 Homer-prone over the full season — the quiet recent stretch is a small sample the model discounts.
06/13 1.1 IP · 22 P0 HR
06/10 1.0 IP · 15 P0 HR
05/31 1.1 IP · 16 P0 HR
Not enough data for this view.
HR hittability vs a league-average hitter · longer + greener = easier to take deep
vs LHB · 1.2 HR/9 · 1 HR in 30 PA
vs RHB · 0.8 HR/9 · 0 HR in 40 PA
Pitch mix · stuff · HR rating · swing-and-miss · contact
Splits · home/away & batter hand
| HR/9 | HR | Barrel | FB% | K% | ERA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.93 | 1 | — | — | 19% | 11.57 |
| Away | 0.00 | 0 | — | — | 21% | 1.42 |
| vs LHB | 1.22 | 1 | 14% | 23% | 26% | — |
| vs RHB | 0.80 | 0 | 13% | 21% | 16% | — |
HR = home runs allowed (season-to-date). ERA isn’t reported by batter hand, and barrel/FB% aren’t available by home/away — those cells show —.
Pitcher summary · vs LHB
Cade Gibson carries a 0.85 HR/9. PHI ranks 4th in HR factor for LH hitters.
Tyler Phillips • RHP (MIA)MIA @ PHI | vs PHI1/1 W–L • 1.86 ERA • 41 Ks • 1.30 WHIP0.5 HR/9 • 13% Barrel • 23% FB • 21% K • 1.86 ERA (H 0.83 / A 4.02)▬ Holding steady0.81hittability
Tyler Phillips • RHP (MIA)
MIA @ PHI | vs PHI
1/1 W–L • 1.86 ERA • 41 Ks • 1.30 WHIP
0.5 HR/9 • 13% Barrel • 23% FB • 21% K • 1.86 ERA (H 0.83 / A 4.02)
▬ Holding steady
0.81
hittability
Last 3 starts · IP / pitches / HR
▬ Holding steady No big change in his home-run risk lately.
06/11 5.0 IP · 70 P0 HR
06/05 4.2 IP · 82 P bulk1 HR
05/30 5.0 IP · 72 P0 HR
Not enough data for this view.
HR hittability vs a league-average hitter · longer + greener = easier to take deep
vs LHB · 0.7 HR/9 · 1 HR in 120 PA
vs RHB · 0.7 HR/9 · 1 HR in 106 PA
Pitch mix · stuff · HR rating · swing-and-miss · contact
Splits · home/away & batter hand
| HR/9 | HR | Barrel | FB% | K% | ERA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 0.28 | 1 | — | — | 24% | 0.83 |
| Away | 0.57 | 1 | — | — | 13% | 4.02 |
| vs LHB | 0.67 | 1 | 14% | 23% | 24% | — |
| vs RHB | 0.72 | 1 | 13% | 23% | 19% | — |
HR = home runs allowed (season-to-date). ERA isn’t reported by batter hand, and barrel/FB% aren’t available by home/away — those cells show —.
Pitcher summary · vs LHB
Tyler Phillips carries a 0.52 HR/9 and gave up 0 in his last outing (1 over his last 3). PHI ranks 4th in HR factor for LH hitters.
Calvin Faucher • RHP (MIA)MIA @ PHI | vs PHI4/3 W–L (Tied–59th) • 3.34 ERA • 34 Ks • 1.62 WHIP0.3 HR/9 • 11% Barrel • 19% FB • 25% K • 3.34 ERA (H 3.94 / A 2.63)▬ Holding steady0.74hittability
Calvin Faucher • RHP (MIA)
MIA @ PHI | vs PHI
4/3 W–L (Tied–59th) • 3.34 ERA • 34 Ks • 1.62 WHIP
0.3 HR/9 • 11% Barrel • 19% FB • 25% K • 3.34 ERA (H 3.94 / A 2.63)
▬ Holding steady
0.74
hittability
Last 3 games · IP / pitches / HR
▬ Holding steady No big change in his home-run risk lately.
06/14 1.0 IP · 16 P0 HR
06/13 1.0 IP · 15 P0 HR
06/11 1.0 IP · 13 P0 HR
Not enough data for this view.
HR hittability vs a league-average hitter · longer + greener = easier to take deep
vs LHB · 0.6 HR/9 · 0 HR in 91 PA
vs RHB · 0.7 HR/9 · 0 HR in 57 PA
Pitch mix · stuff · HR rating · swing-and-miss · contact
Splits · home/away & batter hand
| HR/9 | HR | Barrel | FB% | K% | ERA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 0.00 | 0 | — | — | 26% | 3.94 |
| Away | 0.00 | 0 | — | — | 24% | 2.63 |
| vs LHB | 0.56 | 0 | 12% | 20% | 25% | — |
| vs RHB | 0.70 | 0 | 12% | 21% | 23% | — |
HR = home runs allowed (season-to-date). ERA isn’t reported by batter hand, and barrel/FB% aren’t available by home/away — those cells show —.
Pitcher summary · vs LHB
Calvin Faucher carries a 0.35 HR/9. PHI ranks 4th in HR factor for LH hitters.
Pick who he’ll face
Matchup vs Ryan GustoB
Matchup vs Michael PetersenA · ×1.45
Arms like Michael Petersen
Most similar arsenals (velocity, movement, mix): Gus Varland, Jordan Leasure, Ryne Stanek, Emmet Sheehan, Hunter Bigge, Nick Mears.
vs arms like this (since 2025), 0 HR in 19 PA (0.0% · league ~3%).
Matchup vs Tyler ZuberA · ×1.41
Matchup vs Pete FairbanksA · ×1.42
Arms like Pete Fairbanks
Most similar arsenals (velocity, movement, mix): Jordan Leasure, Nick Mears, Chase Burns, Bryan Abreu, Kevin Ginkel, Grant Taylor.
vs arms like this (since 2025), 1 HR in 17 PA (5.9% · league ~3%).
Matchup vs Lake BacharA · ×1.41
Arms like Lake Bachar
Most similar arsenals (velocity, movement, mix): Jeff Hoffman, Max Meyer, Joe Boyle, Jacob deGrom, Dylan Cease, Shohei Ohtani.
vs arms like this (since 2025), 2 HR in 37 PA (5.4% · league ~3%).
Matchup vs William KempnerA · ×1.35
Matchup vs John KingA · ×1.49
Arms like John King
Most similar arsenals (velocity, movement, mix): Brant Hurter, Framber Valdez, JoJo Romero, Cristopher Sánchez, Brennan Bernardino, Aaron Ashby.
vs arms like this (since 2025), 2 HR in 47 PA (4.3% · league ~3%).
Matchup vs Anthony BenderA · ×1.42
Arms like Anthony Bender
Most similar arsenals (velocity, movement, mix): Justin Lawrence, Blake Treinen, Jake Bird, Jimmy Herget, Riley O'Brien, Kai-Wei Teng.
Matchup vs Cade GibsonA · ×1.43
Arms like Cade Gibson
Most similar arsenals (velocity, movement, mix): Framber Valdez, Max Fried, Tyler Holton, Kyle Hart, DL Hall, John King.
vs arms like this (since 2025), 3 HR in 38 PA (7.9% · league ~3%).
Matchup vs Tyler PhillipsA · ×1.36
Arms like Tyler Phillips
Most similar arsenals (velocity, movement, mix): Luis García, Brayan Bello, Carmen Mlodzinski, Jordan Hicks, Brandon Sproat, Colin Holderman.
vs arms like this (since 2025), 2 HR in 20 PA (10.0% · league ~3%).
Matchup vs Calvin FaucherA · ×1.41
Arms like Calvin Faucher
Most similar arsenals (velocity, movement, mix): Drew Rasmussen, Nolan McLean, Cody Bolton, Griffin Jax, Dustin May, Zack Kelly.
vs arms like this (since 2025), 3 HR in 27 PA (11.1% · league ~3%).
Junior Caminero RTB AWAY vs Eric Lauer L · LADwind 1.05park 0.97brl 15%recent 22%29%MatchupA+243
Junior Caminero R
TB AWAY vs Eric Lauer L · LAD
wind 1.05park 0.97brl 15%recent 22%
29%
MatchupA
+243
Junior Caminero R
TB AWAY vs Eric Lauer L · LAD
wind 1.05park 0.97brl 15%recent 22%
29%
Matchup summary · vs Eric Lauer
Batter Summary ➖ Steady
Caminero has 3 of his 15 HRs off LHP, 46% hard-hit that side. 7 of his 15 HRs have come on the road, slugging .418 there.
Form Last ~3 weeks (recency-weighted): .399 xwOBAcon (lg .372), 22% well-hit (lg 14%), 65% hard-hit · 2 HR in 55 PA. Right around league — no real trend either way.
Ranking Reasoning
Strong HR spot.
A homer-prone starter, he's vulnerable to righties (2.2 HR/9) and the park favors RH power.
A homer-prone starter, he's vulnerable to righties (2.2 HR/9) and the park favors RH power.
⚾ vs Lauer (career): 1/4 AB | 0 HR | 0K
Pitch by Pitch
Pitch-by-pitch · Lauer throws / Caminero hits
Stuff & usage = the arm’s; whiff / contact / EV / barrel / air-ground / HR = Caminero’s 2026 vs LHP · green = bat’s edge
4-SeamSt 1745% used
Whiff
17%
Contact
83%
EV
102
Barrel
11%
Air/Gnd
22/33
HR
1
9 BBE
CutterSt 2419% used
Whiff
17%
Contact
83%
EV
—
Barrel
—
Air/Gnd
—
HR
—
thin 2026
CurveSt 315% used
Whiff
10%
Contact
90%
EV
93
Barrel
33%
Air/Gnd
33/33
HR
1
3 BBE
ChangeSt 513% used
Whiff
17%
Contact
83%
EV
93
Barrel
0%
Air/Gnd
0/61
HR
0
18 BBE
SliderSt 77% used
Whiff
0%
Contact
100%
EV
83
Barrel
0%
Air/Gnd
0/43
HR
0
7 BBE
Pitch-by-pitch · Hernández throws / Caminero hits
Stuff & usage = the arm’s; whiff / contact / EV / barrel / air-ground / HR = Caminero’s 2026 vs RHP · green = bat’s edge
Sinker—62% used
Whiff
16%
Contact
84%
EV
92
Barrel
3%
Air/Gnd
13/61
HR
3
31 BBE
Slider—38% used
Whiff
24%
Contact
76%
EV
93
Barrel
9%
Air/Gnd
26/47
HR
1
34 BBE
Pitch-by-pitch · Dreyer throws / Caminero hits
Stuff & usage = the arm’s; whiff / contact / EV / barrel / air-ground / HR = Caminero’s 2026 vs LHP · green = bat’s edge
4-Seam—48% used
Whiff
17%
Contact
83%
EV
102
Barrel
11%
Air/Gnd
22/33
HR
1
9 BBE
Slider—42% used
Whiff
0%
Contact
100%
EV
83
Barrel
0%
Air/Gnd
0/43
HR
0
7 BBE
Curve—10% used
Whiff
10%
Contact
90%
EV
93
Barrel
33%
Air/Gnd
33/33
HR
1
3 BBE
Pitch-by-pitch · Scott throws / Caminero hits
Stuff & usage = the arm’s; whiff / contact / EV / barrel / air-ground / HR = Caminero’s 2026 vs LHP · green = bat’s edge
4-Seam—52% used
Whiff
17%
Contact
83%
EV
102
Barrel
11%
Air/Gnd
22/33
HR
1
9 BBE
Slider—48% used
Whiff
0%
Contact
100%
EV
83
Barrel
0%
Air/Gnd
0/43
HR
0
7 BBE
Pitch-by-pitch · Vesia throws / Caminero hits
Stuff & usage = the arm’s; whiff / contact / EV / barrel / air-ground / HR = Caminero’s 2026 vs LHP · green = bat’s edge
4-Seam—59% used
Whiff
17%
Contact
83%
EV
102
Barrel
11%
Air/Gnd
22/33
HR
1
9 BBE
Slider—28% used
Whiff
0%
Contact
100%
EV
83
Barrel
0%
Air/Gnd
0/43
HR
0
7 BBE
Change—13% used
Whiff
17%
Contact
83%
EV
93
Barrel
0%
Air/Gnd
0/61
HR
0
18 BBE
Pitch-by-pitch · Treinen throws / Caminero hits
Stuff & usage = the arm’s; whiff / contact / EV / barrel / air-ground / HR = Caminero’s 2026 vs RHP · green = bat’s edge
Sweeper—45% used
Whiff
38%
Contact
62%
EV
96
Barrel
6%
Air/Gnd
19/44
HR
1
16 BBE
Sinker—41% used
Whiff
16%
Contact
84%
EV
92
Barrel
3%
Air/Gnd
13/61
HR
3
31 BBE
4-Seam—9% used
Whiff
19%
Contact
81%
EV
101
Barrel
14%
Air/Gnd
29/50
HR
3
28 BBE
Cutter—5% used
Whiff
0%
Contact
100%
EV
91
Barrel
0%
Air/Gnd
15/46
HR
1
13 BBE
Pitch-by-pitch · Henriquez throws / Caminero hits
Stuff & usage = the arm’s; whiff / contact / EV / barrel / air-ground / HR = Caminero’s 2026 vs RHP · green = bat’s edge
Sinker—45% used
Whiff
16%
Contact
84%
EV
92
Barrel
3%
Air/Gnd
13/61
HR
3
31 BBE
4-Seam—22% used
Whiff
19%
Contact
81%
EV
101
Barrel
14%
Air/Gnd
29/50
HR
3
28 BBE
Slider—21% used
Whiff
24%
Contact
76%
EV
93
Barrel
9%
Air/Gnd
26/47
HR
1
34 BBE
Curve—7% used
Whiff
36%
Contact
64%
EV
69
Barrel
0%
Air/Gnd
0/100
HR
0
4 BBE
Cutter—5% used
Whiff
0%
Contact
100%
EV
91
Barrel
0%
Air/Gnd
15/46
HR
1
13 BBE
Pitch-by-pitch · Hurt throws / Caminero hits
Stuff & usage = the arm’s; whiff / contact / EV / barrel / air-ground / HR = Caminero’s 2026 vs RHP · green = bat’s edge
4-Seam—58% used
Whiff
19%
Contact
81%
EV
101
Barrel
14%
Air/Gnd
29/50
HR
3
28 BBE
Change—32% used
Whiff
29%
Contact
71%
EV
86
Barrel
0%
Air/Gnd
10/80
HR
0
10 BBE
Slider—10% used
Whiff
24%
Contact
76%
EV
93
Barrel
9%
Air/Gnd
26/47
HR
1
34 BBE
Pitch-by-pitch · Klein throws / Caminero hits
Stuff & usage = the arm’s; whiff / contact / EV / barrel / air-ground / HR = Caminero’s 2026 vs RHP · green = bat’s edge
4-Seam—57% used
Whiff
19%
Contact
81%
EV
101
Barrel
14%
Air/Gnd
29/50
HR
3
28 BBE
Sweeper—31% used
Whiff
38%
Contact
62%
EV
96
Barrel
6%
Air/Gnd
19/44
HR
1
16 BBE
Curve—10% used
Whiff
36%
Contact
64%
EV
69
Barrel
0%
Air/Gnd
0/100
HR
0
4 BBE
🎯 Target
Matchup-Fit · barrel alignment vs Eric Lauer’s arsenal
4-Seam 45% usedbarrels 11% · allows 14% · 1 HR
Cutter 19% usedbarrels — · allows 7%
Curve 15% usedbarrels — · allows 0% · 1 HR
Change 13% usedbarrels 0% · allows 3%
Slider 7% usedbarrels 0% · allows 0%
Air / Park
Pulls 20% in the air; pull side LF — park ×1.14 → park+wind fits his pull power.
Recent form · last 5
Barrel 0% · EV 98 · 1 HR over his last 5.
Matchup-Fit · barrel alignment vs Jonathan Hernández’s arsenal
Sinker 62% usedbarrels 3% · allows 14% · 3 HR
Slider 38% usedbarrels 9% · allows — · 1 HR
Air / Park
Pulls 20% in the air; pull side LF — park ×1.14 → park+wind fits his pull power.
Recent form · last 5
Barrel 0% · EV 98 · 1 HR over his last 5.
Matchup-Fit · barrel alignment vs Jack Dreyer’s arsenal
4-Seam 48% usedbarrels 11% · allows 0% · 1 HR
Slider 42% usedbarrels 0% · allows 6%
Curve 10% usedbarrels — · allows — · 1 HR
Air / Park
Pulls 20% in the air; pull side LF — park ×1.14 → park+wind fits his pull power.
Recent form · last 5
Barrel 0% · EV 98 · 1 HR over his last 5.
Matchup-Fit · barrel alignment vs Tanner Scott’s arsenal
4-Seam 52% usedbarrels 11% · allows 15% · 1 HR
Slider 48% usedbarrels 0% · allows 8%
Air / Park
Pulls 20% in the air; pull side LF — park ×1.14 → park+wind fits his pull power.
Recent form · last 5
Barrel 0% · EV 98 · 1 HR over his last 5.
Matchup-Fit · barrel alignment vs Alex Vesia’s arsenal
4-Seam 59% usedbarrels 11% · allows 6% · 1 HR
Slider 28% usedbarrels 0% · allows —
Change 13% usedbarrels 0% · allows 0%
Air / Park
Pulls 20% in the air; pull side LF — park ×1.14 → park+wind fits his pull power.
Recent form · last 5
Barrel 0% · EV 98 · 1 HR over his last 5.
Matchup-Fit · barrel alignment vs Blake Treinen’s arsenal
Sweeper 45% usedbarrels 6% · allows 8% · 1 HR
Sinker 41% usedbarrels 3% · allows 4% · 3 HR
4-Seam 9% usedbarrels 14% · allows — · 3 HR
Cutter 5% usedbarrels 0% · allows — · 1 HR
Air / Park
Pulls 20% in the air; pull side LF — park ×1.14 → park+wind fits his pull power.
Recent form · last 5
Barrel 0% · EV 98 · 1 HR over his last 5.
Matchup-Fit · barrel alignment vs Edgardo Henriquez’s arsenal
Sinker 45% usedbarrels 3% · allows 0% · 3 HR
4-Seam 22% usedbarrels 14% · allows — · 3 HR
Slider 21% usedbarrels 9% · allows 0% · 1 HR
Curve 7% usedbarrels 0% · allows —
Cutter 5% usedbarrels 0% · allows — · 1 HR
Air / Park
Pulls 20% in the air; pull side LF — park ×1.14 → park+wind fits his pull power.
Recent form · last 5
Barrel 0% · EV 98 · 1 HR over his last 5.
Matchup-Fit · barrel alignment vs Kyle Hurt’s arsenal
4-Seam 58% usedbarrels 14% · allows 0% · 3 HR
Change 32% usedbarrels 0% · allows 10%
Slider 10% usedbarrels 9% · allows — · 1 HR
Air / Park
Pulls 20% in the air; pull side LF — park ×1.14 → park+wind fits his pull power.
Recent form · last 5
Barrel 0% · EV 98 · 1 HR over his last 5.
Matchup-Fit · barrel alignment vs Will Klein’s arsenal
4-Seam 57% usedbarrels 14% · allows 0% · 3 HR
Sweeper 31% usedbarrels 6% · allows 6% · 1 HR
Curve 10% usedbarrels 0% · allows —
Air / Park
Pulls 20% in the air; pull side LF — park ×1.14 → park+wind fits his pull power.
Recent form · last 5
Barrel 0% · EV 98 · 1 HR over his last 5.
Matchup Lab
Loading…
Batter Stats
Last 5 games · H/AB · K · GB · FB · barrel · EV · HR/FB · HR
| H/AB | K | GB | FB | BRL | EV | HR/FB | HR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5G | 4/20 | 8 | 58% | 17% | 0% | 98 | 50% | 1 |
| 06/14 | 1/5 | 1 | 75% | 25% | 0% | 103 | 100% | 1 |
| 06/13 | 1/4 | 3 | 100% | 0% | 0% | 107 | — | 0 |
| 06/12 | 0/4 | 2 | 50% | 50% | 0% | 88 | 0% | 0 |
| 06/10 | 1/3 | 1 | 50% | 0% | 0% | 94 | — | 0 |
| 06/09 | 1/4 | 1 | 33% | 0% | 0% | 98 | — | 0 |
Swing & Bat Tracking (459 swings)
bat tracking
Bat speed79.9 mph
Swing length8.6 ft
Attack angle6.3°
contact
swing timing
Early25%
On-time65%
Late11%
miss profile
Over15%
Under22%
Tied-up12%
Centered67%
Flailed21%
Batter power & contact · longer + greener = more HR-likely
vs LHP · 3 HR in 94 PA
vs RHP · 12 HR in 233 PA
Matchup strength · longer + greener = more HR-favorable
matchup strength
supporting
Home / Away HR splits · season-to-date
Home HOME8 HR / 141 PA · 5.7%
Home · .573 SLG
Away AWAY7 HR / 159 PA · 4.4%
Away · .418 SLG
Park fit · spray vs this yard
Pulls 20% of contact in the air; his pull side is LF here — HR factor ×1.14 → park fits his pull power.
Pitcher
Eric Lauer • LHP (LAD)TB @ LAD | vs TB2/5 W–L • 5.47 ERA • 36 Ks • 1.29 WHIP2.0 HR/9 • 15% Barrel • 31% FB • 17% K • 5.47 ERA (H 5.88 / A 5.06)▬ Holding steady1.30hittability
Eric Lauer • LHP (LAD)
TB @ LAD | vs TB
2/5 W–L • 5.47 ERA • 36 Ks • 1.29 WHIP
2.0 HR/9 • 15% Barrel • 31% FB • 17% K • 5.47 ERA (H 5.88 / A 5.06)
▬ Holding steady
1.30
hittability
Last 3 starts · IP / pitches / HR
▬ Holding steady No big change in his home-run risk lately.
06/09 5.2 IP · 89 P2 HR
06/02 4.2 IP · 70 P1 HR
05/26 6.0 IP · 96 P1 HR
Pitches to target · go-deep pitches
The pitches he's given up the most homers on — and the bats most likely to punish them.
vs lefty batsslider · 4-seam
Most likely to capitalize: Aranda 28%, Mullins 16%
vs righty batscurve · 4-seam
Most likely to capitalize: Caminero 29%, Díaz 25%, Vilade 16%
HR hittability vs a league-average hitter · longer + greener = easier to take deep
vs LHB · 1.8 HR/9 · 4 HR in 60 PA
vs RHB · 1.9 HR/9 · 11 HR in 195 PA
Pitch mix · stuff · HR rating · swing-and-miss · contact
spin 10:38
spin 9:57
spin 11:30
spin 4:12
spin 12:09
spin 10:38
spin 9:57
spin 11:30
spin 4:12
spin 12:09
spin 10:38
spin 9:57
spin 11:30
spin 4:12
spin 12:09
Where he’s hittable · xSLG allowed by zone (vs RHB)
Green = he gives up slug there. Tap a band → out/mid/in cells → each pitch’s xSLG + a cyan contact-allowed bar. Cell splits use 2025–26; display only.
Splits · home/away & batter hand
| HR/9 | HR | Barrel | FB% | K% | ERA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.77 | 8 | — | — | 20% | 5.88 |
| Away | 2.36 | 7 | — | — | 13% | 5.06 |
| vs LHB | 1.77 | 4 | 15% | 24% | 20% | — |
| vs RHB | 1.87 | 11 | 14% | 31% | 17% | — |
HR = home runs allowed (season-to-date). ERA isn’t reported by batter hand, and barrel/FB% aren’t available by home/away — those cells show —.
Pitcher summary · vs RHB
Eric Lauer carries a 2.04 HR/9 and gave up 2 in his last outing (4 over his last 3). Righties have taken him deep 11 of 15 times (2.2 HR/9 to RHB). He owns a 5.88 ERA at home. LAD ranks 5th in HR factor for RH hitters.
Jonathan Hernández • RHP (LAD)TB @ LAD | vs TB0/0 W–L • 4.97 ERA • 10 Ks • 1.18 WHIP1.8 HR/9 • 14% Barrel • 25% FB • 18% K • 4.97 ERA (H 11.12 / A 0.00)▲ Easier to take deep lately1.00hittability
Jonathan Hernández • RHP (LAD)
TB @ LAD | vs TB
0/0 W–L • 4.97 ERA • 10 Ks • 1.18 WHIP
1.8 HR/9 • 14% Barrel • 25% FB • 18% K • 4.97 ERA (H 11.12 / A 0.00)
▲ Easier to take deep lately
1.00
hittability
Last 3 games · IP / pitches / HR
▲ Easier to take deep lately This pitcher is trending toward giving up home runs.
06/14 1.0 IP · 13 P0 HR
06/12 2.0 IP · 46 P0 HR
06/07 1.2 IP · 39 P2 HR
Pitches to target · go-deep pitches
The pitches he's given up the most homers on — and the bats most likely to punish them.
vs lefty batsno clear target
Most likely to capitalize: Aranda 28%, Mullins 16%, Walls 6%
vs righty batssinker
Most likely to capitalize: Caminero 29%, Díaz 25%, Vilade 16%
HR hittability vs a league-average hitter · longer + greener = easier to take deep
vs LHB · 1.2 HR/9 · 1 HR in 32 PA
vs RHB · 1.9 HR/9 · 3 HR in 33 PA
Pitch mix · stuff · HR rating · swing-and-miss · contact
Splits · home/away & batter hand
| HR/9 | HR | Barrel | FB% | K% | ERA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 4.76 | 3 | — | — | 19% | 11.12 |
| Away | 0.00 | 0 | — | — | 19% | 0.00 |
| vs LHB | 1.20 | 1 | 12% | 23% | 16% | — |
| vs RHB | 1.86 | 3 | 16% | 25% | 23% | — |
HR = home runs allowed (season-to-date). ERA isn’t reported by batter hand, and barrel/FB% aren’t available by home/away — those cells show —.
Pitcher summary · vs RHB
Jonathan Hernández carries a 1.79 HR/9 and gave up 0 in his last outing (2 over his last 3). He owns a 11.12 ERA at home. LAD ranks 5th in HR factor for RH hitters.
Jack Dreyer • LHP (LAD)TB @ LAD | vs TB3/1 W–L • 3.77 ERA • 31 Ks • 1.01 WHIP1.6 HR/9 • 15% Barrel • 24% FB • 27% K • 3.77 ERA (H 0.69 / A 6.32)▲ Easier to take deep lately0.87hittability
Jack Dreyer • LHP (LAD)
TB @ LAD | vs TB
3/1 W–L • 3.77 ERA • 31 Ks • 1.01 WHIP
1.6 HR/9 • 15% Barrel • 24% FB • 27% K • 3.77 ERA (H 0.69 / A 6.32)
▲ Easier to take deep lately
0.87
hittability
Last 3 games · IP / pitches / HR
▲ Easier to take deep lately This pitcher is trending toward giving up home runs.
06/14 1.0 IP · 21 P2 HR
06/11 1.0 IP · 11 P0 HR
06/10 0.2 IP · 16 P1 HR
Pitches to target · go-deep pitches
The pitches he's given up the most homers on — and the bats most likely to punish them.
vs lefty bats4-seam
Most likely to capitalize: Aranda 28%, Mullins 16%
vs righty batsslider · 4-seam
Most likely to capitalize: Caminero 29%, Díaz 25%, Vilade 16%
HR hittability vs a league-average hitter · longer + greener = easier to take deep
vs LHB · 1.2 HR/9 · 2 HR in 62 PA
vs RHB · 1.7 HR/9 · 4 HR in 65 PA
Pitch mix · stuff · HR rating · swing-and-miss · contact
Splits · home/away & batter hand
| HR/9 | HR | Barrel | FB% | K% | ERA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 0.69 | 1 | — | — | 33% | 0.69 |
| Away | 2.87 | 5 | — | — | 24% | 6.32 |
| vs LHB | 1.21 | 2 | 12% | 25% | 22% | — |
| vs RHB | 1.71 | 4 | 17% | 22% | 30% | — |
HR = home runs allowed (season-to-date). ERA isn’t reported by batter hand, and barrel/FB% aren’t available by home/away — those cells show —.
Pitcher summary · vs RHB
Jack Dreyer carries a 1.60 HR/9 and gave up 2 in his last outing (3 over his last 3). Righties have taken him deep 4 of 6 times (2.8 HR/9 to RHB). LAD ranks 5th in HR factor for RH hitters.
Tanner Scott • LHP (LAD)TB @ LAD | vs TB1/3 W–L • 2.48 ERA • 35 Ks • 0.76 WHIP1.4 HR/9 • 16% Barrel • 26% FB • 28% K • 2.48 ERA (H 3.38 / A 1.38)◐ Homer-prone on the year, quieter last 30.82hittability
Tanner Scott • LHP (LAD)
TB @ LAD | vs TB
1/3 W–L • 2.48 ERA • 35 Ks • 0.76 WHIP
1.4 HR/9 • 16% Barrel • 26% FB • 28% K • 2.48 ERA (H 3.38 / A 1.38)
◐ Homer-prone on the year, quieter last 3
0.82
hittability
Last 3 games · IP / pitches / HR
◐ Homer-prone on the year, quieter last 3 Homer-prone over the full season — the quiet recent stretch is a small sample the model discounts.
06/11 1.1 IP · 18 P0 HR
06/09 1.0 IP · 17 P0 HR
06/05 0.2 IP · 12 P0 HR
Pitches to target · go-deep pitches
The pitches he's given up the most homers on — and the bats most likely to punish them.
vs lefty batsno clear target
Most likely to capitalize: Aranda 28%, Mullins 16%
vs righty bats4-seam
Most likely to capitalize: Caminero 29%, Díaz 25%, Vilade 16%
HR hittability vs a league-average hitter · longer + greener = easier to take deep
vs LHB · 0.8 HR/9 · 0 HR in 45 PA
vs RHB · 1.7 HR/9 · 5 HR in 85 PA
Pitch mix · stuff · HR rating · swing-and-miss · contact
Splits · home/away & batter hand
| HR/9 | HR | Barrel | FB% | K% | ERA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.69 | 3 | — | — | 28% | 3.38 |
| Away | 0.69 | 1 | — | — | 38% | 1.38 |
| vs LHB | 0.77 | 0 | 14% | 23% | 29% | — |
| vs RHB | 1.73 | 5 | 17% | 26% | 26% | — |
HR = home runs allowed (season-to-date). ERA isn’t reported by batter hand, and barrel/FB% aren’t available by home/away — those cells show —.
Pitcher summary · vs RHB
Tanner Scott carries a 1.38 HR/9. Righties have taken him deep 5 of 5 times (2.0 HR/9 to RHB). LAD ranks 5th in HR factor for RH hitters.
Alex Vesia • LHP (LAD)TB @ LAD | vs TB1/1 W–L • 2.74 ERA • 31 Ks • 1.00 WHIP0.4 HR/9 • 10% Barrel • 27% FB • 28% K • 2.74 ERA (H 5.56 / A 0.00)▬ Holding steady0.81hittability
Alex Vesia • LHP (LAD)
TB @ LAD | vs TB
1/1 W–L • 2.74 ERA • 31 Ks • 1.00 WHIP
0.4 HR/9 • 10% Barrel • 27% FB • 28% K • 2.74 ERA (H 5.56 / A 0.00)
▬ Holding steady
0.81
hittability
Last 3 games · IP / pitches / HR
▬ Holding steady No big change in his home-run risk lately.
06/13 0.2 IP · 8 P0 HR
06/11 0.1 IP · 4 P0 HR
06/10 0.1 IP · 9 P0 HR
Not enough data for this view.
HR hittability vs a league-average hitter · longer + greener = easier to take deep
vs LHB · 0.8 HR/9 · 0 HR in 45 PA
vs RHB · 0.7 HR/9 · 0 HR in 63 PA
Pitch mix · stuff · HR rating · swing-and-miss · contact
Splits · home/away & batter hand
| HR/9 | HR | Barrel | FB% | K% | ERA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 0.00 | 0 | — | — | 36% | 5.56 |
| Away | 0.00 | 0 | — | — | 30% | 0.00 |
| vs LHB | 0.77 | 0 | 12% | 24% | 24% | — |
| vs RHB | 0.67 | 0 | 11% | 27% | 29% | — |
HR = home runs allowed (season-to-date). ERA isn’t reported by batter hand, and barrel/FB% aren’t available by home/away — those cells show —.
Pitcher summary · vs RHB
Alex Vesia carries a 0.43 HR/9. He owns a 5.56 ERA at home. LAD ranks 5th in HR factor for RH hitters.
Blake Treinen • RHP (LAD)TB @ LAD | vs TB3/1 W–L • 3.68 ERA • 23 Ks • 1.41 WHIP1.0 HR/9 • 17% Barrel • 26% FB • 22% K • 3.68 ERA (H 3.48 / A 3.86)◐ Homer-prone on the year, quieter last 30.78hittability
Blake Treinen • RHP (LAD)
TB @ LAD | vs TB
3/1 W–L • 3.68 ERA • 23 Ks • 1.41 WHIP
1.0 HR/9 • 17% Barrel • 26% FB • 22% K • 3.68 ERA (H 3.48 / A 3.86)
◐ Homer-prone on the year, quieter last 3
0.78
hittability
Last 3 games · IP / pitches / HR
◐ Homer-prone on the year, quieter last 3 Homer-prone over the full season — the quiet recent stretch is a small sample the model discounts.
06/14 1.0 IP · 13 P0 HR
06/12 0.2 IP · 16 P0 HR
06/09 1.0 IP · 31 P0 HR
Pitches to target · go-deep pitches
The pitches he's given up the most homers on — and the bats most likely to punish them.
vs lefty batssweeper
Most likely to capitalize: Aranda 28%, Mullins 16%, Walls 6%
vs righty batsno clear target
Most likely to capitalize: Caminero 29%, Díaz 25%, Vilade 16%
HR hittability vs a league-average hitter · longer + greener = easier to take deep
vs LHB · 1.1 HR/9 · 1 HR in 42 PA
vs RHB · 1.1 HR/9 · 2 HR in 77 PA
Pitch mix · stuff · HR rating · swing-and-miss · contact
Splits · home/away & batter hand
| HR/9 | HR | Barrel | FB% | K% | ERA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 0.87 | 1 | — | — | 27% | 3.48 |
| Away | 0.77 | 1 | — | — | 21% | 3.86 |
| vs LHB | 1.10 | 1 | 16% | 25% | 22% | — |
| vs RHB | 1.10 | 2 | 16% | 25% | 23% | — |
HR = home runs allowed (season-to-date). ERA isn’t reported by batter hand, and barrel/FB% aren’t available by home/away — those cells show —.
Pitcher summary · vs RHB
Blake Treinen carries a 1.04 HR/9. LAD ranks 5th in HR factor for RH hitters.
Edgardo Henriquez • RHP (LAD)TB @ LAD | vs TB2/0 W–L • 3.42 ERA • 28 Ks • 1.06 WHIP0.8 HR/9 • 13% Barrel • 18% FB • 25% K • 3.42 ERA (H 1.46 / A 5.14)◐ Homer-prone on the year, quieter last 30.72hittability
Edgardo Henriquez • RHP (LAD)
TB @ LAD | vs TB
2/0 W–L • 3.42 ERA • 28 Ks • 1.06 WHIP
0.8 HR/9 • 13% Barrel • 18% FB • 25% K • 3.42 ERA (H 1.46 / A 5.14)
◐ Homer-prone on the year, quieter last 3
0.72
hittability
Last 3 games · IP / pitches / HR
◐ Homer-prone on the year, quieter last 3 Homer-prone over the full season — the quiet recent stretch is a small sample the model discounts.
06/12 1.0 IP · 16 P0 HR
06/11 0.2 IP · 15 P0 HR
06/07 1.2 IP · 24 P0 HR
Pitches to target · go-deep pitches
The pitches he's given up the most homers on — and the bats most likely to punish them.
vs lefty batsslider
Most likely to capitalize: Aranda 28%, Mullins 16%, Walls 6%
vs righty batsno clear target
Most likely to capitalize: Caminero 29%, Díaz 25%, Vilade 16%
HR hittability vs a league-average hitter · longer + greener = easier to take deep
vs LHB · 1.3 HR/9 · 2 HR in 50 PA
vs RHB · 0.6 HR/9 · 0 HR in 72 PA
Pitch mix · stuff · HR rating · swing-and-miss · contact
Splits · home/away & batter hand
| HR/9 | HR | Barrel | FB% | K% | ERA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 0.00 | 0 | — | — | 27% | 1.46 |
| Away | 0.64 | 1 | — | — | 25% | 5.14 |
| vs LHB | 1.32 | 2 | 15% | 20% | 22% | — |
| vs RHB | 0.63 | 0 | 12% | 21% | 26% | — |
HR = home runs allowed (season-to-date). ERA isn’t reported by batter hand, and barrel/FB% aren’t available by home/away — those cells show —.
Pitcher summary · vs RHB
Edgardo Henriquez carries a 0.81 HR/9. LAD ranks 5th in HR factor for RH hitters.
Kyle Hurt • RHP (LAD)TB @ LAD | vs TB1/1 W–L • 4.22 ERA • 27 Ks • 1.22 WHIP0.9 HR/9 • 13% Barrel • 21% FB • 28% K • 4.22 ERA (H 2.61 / A 5.73)▲ Easier to take deep lately0.67hittability
Kyle Hurt • RHP (LAD)
TB @ LAD | vs TB
1/1 W–L • 4.22 ERA • 27 Ks • 1.22 WHIP
0.9 HR/9 • 13% Barrel • 21% FB • 28% K • 4.22 ERA (H 2.61 / A 5.73)
▲ Easier to take deep lately
0.67
hittability
Last 3 games · IP / pitches / HR
▲ Easier to take deep lately This pitcher is trending toward giving up home runs.
06/10 0.1 IP · 20 P1 HR
06/07 1.1 IP · 22 P0 HR
06/04 1.0 IP · 15 P0 HR
Pitches to target · go-deep pitches
The pitches he's given up the most homers on — and the bats most likely to punish them.
vs lefty batschange
Most likely to capitalize: Aranda 28%, Mullins 16%, Walls 6%
vs righty batschange
Most likely to capitalize: Caminero 29%, Díaz 25%, Vilade 16%
HR hittability vs a league-average hitter · longer + greener = easier to take deep
vs LHB · 1.1 HR/9 · 1 HR in 40 PA
vs RHB · 0.9 HR/9 · 1 HR in 66 PA
Pitch mix · stuff · HR rating · swing-and-miss · contact
Splits · home/away & batter hand
| HR/9 | HR | Barrel | FB% | K% | ERA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 0.87 | 1 | — | — | 34% | 2.61 |
| Away | 0.82 | 1 | — | — | 28% | 5.73 |
| vs LHB | 1.12 | 1 | 13% | 25% | 28% | — |
| vs RHB | 0.92 | 1 | 13% | 20% | 25% | — |
HR = home runs allowed (season-to-date). ERA isn’t reported by batter hand, and barrel/FB% aren’t available by home/away — those cells show —.
Pitcher summary · vs RHB
Kyle Hurt carries a 0.89 HR/9 and gave up 1 in his last outing. LAD ranks 5th in HR factor for RH hitters.
Will Klein • RHP (LAD)TB @ LAD | vs TB2/2 W–L • 2.25 ERA • 32 Ks • 1.29 WHIP0.5 HR/9 • 8% Barrel • 23% FB • 24% K • 2.25 ERA (H 1.35 / A 3.07)▬ Holding steady0.60hittability
Will Klein • RHP (LAD)
TB @ LAD | vs TB
2/2 W–L • 2.25 ERA • 32 Ks • 1.29 WHIP
0.5 HR/9 • 8% Barrel • 23% FB • 24% K • 2.25 ERA (H 1.35 / A 3.07)
▬ Holding steady
0.60
hittability
Last 3 games · IP / pitches / HR
▬ Holding steady No big change in his home-run risk lately.
06/11 1.0 IP · 22 P0 HR
06/09 1.1 IP · 21 P0 HR
06/04 0.1 IP · 16 P1 HR
Not enough data for this view.
HR hittability vs a league-average hitter · longer + greener = easier to take deep
vs LHB · 0.9 HR/9 · 1 HR in 72 PA
vs RHB · 0.6 HR/9 · 0 HR in 71 PA
Pitch mix · stuff · HR rating · swing-and-miss · contact
Splits · home/away & batter hand
| HR/9 | HR | Barrel | FB% | K% | ERA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 0.00 | 0 | — | — | 30% | 1.35 |
| Away | 0.61 | 1 | — | — | 25% | 3.07 |
| vs LHB | 0.88 | 1 | 11% | 25% | 23% | — |
| vs RHB | 0.64 | 0 | 11% | 22% | 25% | — |
HR = home runs allowed (season-to-date). ERA isn’t reported by batter hand, and barrel/FB% aren’t available by home/away — those cells show —.
Pitcher summary · vs RHB
Will Klein carries a 0.54 HR/9 and gave up 0 in his last outing (1 over his last 3). LAD ranks 5th in HR factor for RH hitters.
Pick who he’ll face
Matchup vs Eric LauerA
Arms like Eric Lauer
Most similar arsenals (velocity, movement, mix): Mitch Farris, Jeffrey Springs, Dietrich Enns, Eduardo Rodriguez, Noah Cameron, Mitchell Parker.
vs arms like this (since 2025), 1 HR in 42 PA (2.4% · league ~3%).
Matchup vs Jonathan HernándezB · ×1.04
Matchup vs Jack DreyerA · ×1.13
Arms like Jack Dreyer
Most similar arsenals (velocity, movement, mix): Alex Vesia, Tanner Scott, Robbie Ray, Yusei Kikuchi, Jacob Latz, Dylan Lee.
vs arms like this (since 2025), 1 HR in 32 PA (3.1% · league ~3%).
Matchup vs Tanner ScottA · ×1.11
Arms like Tanner Scott
Most similar arsenals (velocity, movement, mix): Jack Dreyer, Mason Montgomery, Justin Wrobleski, Alex Vesia, Carlos Rodón, Erik Sabrowski.
vs arms like this (since 2025), 2 HR in 22 PA (9.1% · league ~3%).
Matchup vs Alex VesiaA · ×1.12
Arms like Alex Vesia
Most similar arsenals (velocity, movement, mix): Jack Dreyer, Brent Headrick, Robbie Ray, Jacob Latz, Tanner Scott, Erik Sabrowski.
vs arms like this (since 2025), 2 HR in 33 PA (6.1% · league ~3%).
Matchup vs Blake TreinenB · ×1.04
Arms like Blake Treinen
Most similar arsenals (velocity, movement, mix): Colin Holderman, Eduard Bazardo, Dustin May, Justin Lawrence, Nolan McLean, Anthony Bender.
vs arms like this (since 2025), 0 HR in 21 PA (0.0% · league ~3%).
Matchup vs Edgardo HenriquezA · ×1.11
Arms like Edgardo Henriquez
Most similar arsenals (velocity, movement, mix): Luis Medina, David Morgan, Jack Leiter, Luinder Avila, Chase Dollander, Tyler Glasnow.
vs arms like this (since 2025), 4 HR in 20 PA (20.0% · league ~3%).
Matchup vs Kyle HurtA · ×1.12
Matchup vs Will KleinA · ×1.14
Arms like Will Klein
Most similar arsenals (velocity, movement, mix): Gavin Williams, Grant Taylor, Didier Fuentes, Antonio Senzatela, Nick Pivetta, Cam Schlittler.
vs arms like this (since 2025), 3 HR in 35 PA (8.6% · league ~3%).
Pete Crow-Armstrong LCHC HOME vs Michael Lorenzen R · CHCwind 1.06park 0.97brl 16%recent 24% HOT29%MatchupA++243
Pete Crow-Armstrong L
CHC HOME vs Michael Lorenzen R · CHC
wind 1.06park 0.97brl 16%recent 24% HOT
29%
MatchupA+
+243
Pete Crow-Armstrong L
CHC HOME vs Michael Lorenzen R · CHC
wind 1.06park 0.97brl 16%recent 24% HOT
29%
Matchup summary · vs Michael Lorenzen
Batter Summary 📈 Trending up
Crow-Armstrong has 9 of his 12 HRs off RHP, 49% hard-hit that side. 6 of his 12 HRs have come at home, slugging .460 there. Crow-Armstrong has been hot against arms like this lately. Wind is blowing out to his pull side.
Form Last ~3 weeks (recency-weighted): .585 xwOBAcon (lg .372), 24% well-hit (lg 14%), 65% hard-hit · 3 HR in 63 PA. Recent contact quality is beating league — the rating catches the heat before the HR totals show it.
Ranking Reasoning
Strong HR spot.
A homer-prone starter, he's vulnerable to lefties (2.6 HR/9) and the park favors LH power.
A homer-prone starter, he's vulnerable to lefties (2.6 HR/9) and the park favors LH power.
🏟️ Homered here 17× at this park (since ’25)
⚾ vs Lorenzen (career): 1/3 AB | 0 HR | 0K
Pitch by Pitch
Pitch-by-pitch · Lorenzen throws / Crow-Armstrong hits
Stuff & usage = the arm’s; whiff / contact / EV / barrel / air-ground / HR = Crow-Armstrong’s 2026 vs RHP · green = bat’s edge
ChangeSt 6126% used
Whiff
29%
Contact
71%
EV
89
Barrel
0%
Air/Gnd
15/55
HR
0
20 BBE
4-SeamSt 4625% used
Whiff
15%
Contact
85%
EV
91
Barrel
10%
Air/Gnd
32/29
HR
3
41 BBE
CurveSt 3215% used
Whiff
37%
Contact
63%
EV
98
Barrel
0%
Air/Gnd
17/17
HR
0
6 BBE
CutterSt 4814% used
Whiff
12%
Contact
88%
EV
92
Barrel
0%
Air/Gnd
20/40
HR
0
5 BBE
SinkerSt 4211% used
Whiff
0%
Contact
100%
EV
87
Barrel
0%
Air/Gnd
11/56
HR
0
9 BBE
SliderSt 137% used
Whiff
24%
Contact
76%
EV
90
Barrel
0%
Air/Gnd
27/36
HR
1
11 BBE
Pitch-by-pitch · Agnos throws / Crow-Armstrong hits
Stuff & usage = the arm’s; whiff / contact / EV / barrel / air-ground / HR = Crow-Armstrong’s 2026 vs RHP · green = bat’s edge
4-Seam—29% used
Whiff
15%
Contact
85%
EV
91
Barrel
10%
Air/Gnd
32/29
HR
3
41 BBE
Cutter—28% used
Whiff
12%
Contact
88%
EV
92
Barrel
0%
Air/Gnd
20/40
HR
0
5 BBE
Splitter—23% used
Whiff
29%
Contact
71%
EV
92
Barrel
0%
Air/Gnd
27/36
HR
0
11 BBE
Sweeper—9% used
Whiff
29%
Contact
71%
EV
94
Barrel
14%
Air/Gnd
29/14
HR
1
7 BBE
Slider—7% used
Whiff
24%
Contact
76%
EV
90
Barrel
0%
Air/Gnd
27/36
HR
1
11 BBE
Sinker—4% used
Whiff
0%
Contact
100%
EV
87
Barrel
0%
Air/Gnd
11/56
HR
0
9 BBE
Pitch-by-pitch · Castaño throws / Crow-Armstrong hits
Stuff & usage = the arm’s; whiff / contact / EV / barrel / air-ground / HR = Crow-Armstrong’s 2026 vs RHP · green = bat’s edge
Sinker—31% used
Whiff
0%
Contact
100%
EV
87
Barrel
0%
Air/Gnd
11/56
HR
0
9 BBE
Cutter—26% used
Whiff
12%
Contact
88%
EV
92
Barrel
0%
Air/Gnd
20/40
HR
0
5 BBE
Change—22% used
Whiff
29%
Contact
71%
EV
89
Barrel
0%
Air/Gnd
15/55
HR
0
20 BBE
Sweeper—15% used
Whiff
29%
Contact
71%
EV
94
Barrel
14%
Air/Gnd
29/14
HR
1
7 BBE
4-Seam—6% used
Whiff
15%
Contact
85%
EV
91
Barrel
10%
Air/Gnd
32/29
HR
3
41 BBE
Pitch-by-pitch · Senzatela throws / Crow-Armstrong hits
Stuff & usage = the arm’s; whiff / contact / EV / barrel / air-ground / HR = Crow-Armstrong’s 2026 vs RHP · green = bat’s edge
4-Seam—55% used
Whiff
15%
Contact
85%
EV
91
Barrel
10%
Air/Gnd
32/29
HR
3
41 BBE
Curve—17% used
Whiff
37%
Contact
63%
EV
98
Barrel
0%
Air/Gnd
17/17
HR
0
6 BBE
Change—14% used
Whiff
29%
Contact
71%
EV
89
Barrel
0%
Air/Gnd
15/55
HR
0
20 BBE
Slider—7% used
Whiff
24%
Contact
76%
EV
90
Barrel
0%
Air/Gnd
27/36
HR
1
11 BBE
Cutter—6% used
Whiff
12%
Contact
88%
EV
92
Barrel
0%
Air/Gnd
20/40
HR
0
5 BBE
Pitch-by-pitch · Mejia throws / Crow-Armstrong hits
Stuff & usage = the arm’s; whiff / contact / EV / barrel / air-ground / HR = Crow-Armstrong’s 2026 vs RHP · green = bat’s edge
4-Seam—69% used
Whiff
15%
Contact
85%
EV
91
Barrel
10%
Air/Gnd
32/29
HR
3
41 BBE
Sweeper—27% used
Whiff
29%
Contact
71%
EV
94
Barrel
14%
Air/Gnd
29/14
HR
1
7 BBE
Pitch-by-pitch · Vodnik throws / Crow-Armstrong hits
Stuff & usage = the arm’s; whiff / contact / EV / barrel / air-ground / HR = Crow-Armstrong’s 2026 vs RHP · green = bat’s edge
4-Seam—54% used
Whiff
15%
Contact
85%
EV
91
Barrel
10%
Air/Gnd
32/29
HR
3
41 BBE
Change—38% used
Whiff
29%
Contact
71%
EV
89
Barrel
0%
Air/Gnd
15/55
HR
0
20 BBE
Slider—6% used
Whiff
24%
Contact
76%
EV
90
Barrel
0%
Air/Gnd
27/36
HR
1
11 BBE
Pitch-by-pitch · Bernardino throws / Crow-Armstrong hits
Stuff & usage = the arm’s; whiff / contact / EV / barrel / air-ground / HR = Crow-Armstrong’s 2026 vs LHP · green = bat’s edge
Sinker—57% used
Whiff
13%
Contact
87%
EV
85
Barrel
0%
Air/Gnd
11/61
HR
0
18 BBE
Curve—34% used
Whiff
14%
Contact
86%
EV
—
Barrel
—
Air/Gnd
—
HR
—
thin 2026
Pitch-by-pitch · Hill throws / Crow-Armstrong hits
Stuff & usage = the arm’s; whiff / contact / EV / barrel / air-ground / HR = Crow-Armstrong’s 2026 vs RHP · green = bat’s edge
Change—35% used
Whiff
29%
Contact
71%
EV
89
Barrel
0%
Air/Gnd
15/55
HR
0
20 BBE
4-Seam—30% used
Whiff
15%
Contact
85%
EV
91
Barrel
10%
Air/Gnd
32/29
HR
3
41 BBE
Sinker—18% used
Whiff
0%
Contact
100%
EV
87
Barrel
0%
Air/Gnd
11/56
HR
0
9 BBE
Slider—17% used
Whiff
24%
Contact
76%
EV
90
Barrel
0%
Air/Gnd
27/36
HR
1
11 BBE
Pitch-by-pitch · Halvorsen throws / Crow-Armstrong hits
Stuff & usage = the arm’s; whiff / contact / EV / barrel / air-ground / HR = Crow-Armstrong’s 2026 vs RHP · green = bat’s edge
4-Seam—61% used
Whiff
15%
Contact
85%
EV
91
Barrel
10%
Air/Gnd
32/29
HR
3
41 BBE
Splitter—28% used
Whiff
29%
Contact
71%
EV
92
Barrel
0%
Air/Gnd
27/36
HR
0
11 BBE
Slider—11% used
Whiff
24%
Contact
76%
EV
90
Barrel
0%
Air/Gnd
27/36
HR
1
11 BBE
🎯 Target
Matchup-Fit · barrel alignment vs Michael Lorenzen’s arsenal
Change 26% usedbarrels 0% · allows 7%
4-Seam 25% usedbarrels 10% · allows 19% · 3 HR
Curve 15% usedbarrels 0% · allows 8%
Cutter 14% usedbarrels 0% · allows 5%
Sinker 11% usedbarrels 0% · allows 0%
Air / Park
Pulls 27% in the air; pull side RF — park ×1.24 × wind out to RF (10 mph) ×1.03 → net ×1.28 → park+wind fits his pull power.
Recent form · last 5
Barrel 6% · EV 86 · 1 HR over his last 5.
Matchup-Fit · barrel alignment vs Zach Agnos’s arsenal
4-Seam 29% usedbarrels 10% · allows 6% · 3 HR
Cutter 28% usedbarrels 0% · allows 9%
Splitter 23% usedbarrels 0% · allows 0%
Sweeper 9% usedbarrels 14% · allows — · 1 HR
Slider 7% usedbarrels 0% · allows — · 1 HR
Air / Park
Pulls 27% in the air; pull side RF — park ×1.24 × wind out to RF (10 mph) ×1.03 → net ×1.28 → park+wind fits his pull power.
Recent form · last 5
Barrel 6% · EV 86 · 1 HR over his last 5.
Matchup-Fit · barrel alignment vs Blas Castaño’s arsenal
Sinker 31% usedbarrels 0% · allows 0%
Cutter 26% usedbarrels 0% · allows —
Change 22% usedbarrels 0% · allows —
Sweeper 15% usedbarrels 14% · allows — · 1 HR
4-Seam 6% usedbarrels 10% · allows — · 3 HR
Air / Park
Pulls 27% in the air; pull side RF — park ×1.24 × wind out to RF (10 mph) ×1.03 → net ×1.28 → park+wind fits his pull power.
Recent form · last 5
Barrel 6% · EV 86 · 1 HR over his last 5.
Matchup-Fit · barrel alignment vs Antonio Senzatela’s arsenal
4-Seam 55% usedbarrels 10% · allows 12% · 3 HR
Curve 17% usedbarrels 0% · allows —
Change 14% usedbarrels 0% · allows 12%
Slider 7% usedbarrels 0% · allows — · 1 HR
Cutter 6% usedbarrels 0% · allows 0%
Air / Park
Pulls 27% in the air; pull side RF — park ×1.24 × wind out to RF (10 mph) ×1.03 → net ×1.28 → park+wind fits his pull power.
Recent form · last 5
Barrel 6% · EV 86 · 1 HR over his last 5.
Matchup-Fit · barrel alignment vs Juan Mejia’s arsenal
4-Seam 69% usedbarrels 10% · allows 6% · 3 HR
Sweeper 27% usedbarrels 14% · allows 8% · 1 HR
Air / Park
Pulls 27% in the air; pull side RF — park ×1.24 × wind out to RF (10 mph) ×1.03 → net ×1.28 → park+wind fits his pull power.
Recent form · last 5
Barrel 6% · EV 86 · 1 HR over his last 5.
Matchup-Fit · barrel alignment vs Victor Vodnik’s arsenal
4-Seam 54% usedbarrels 10% · allows 0% · 3 HR
Change 38% usedbarrels 0% · allows 8%
Slider 6% usedbarrels 0% · allows — · 1 HR
Air / Park
Pulls 27% in the air; pull side RF — park ×1.24 × wind out to RF (10 mph) ×1.03 → net ×1.28 → park+wind fits his pull power.
Recent form · last 5
Barrel 6% · EV 86 · 1 HR over his last 5.
Matchup-Fit · barrel alignment vs Brennan Bernardino’s arsenal
Sinker 57% usedbarrels 0% · allows 4%
Curve 34% usedbarrels — · allows 7%
Air / Park
Pulls 27% in the air; pull side RF — park ×1.24 × wind out to RF (10 mph) ×1.03 → net ×1.28 → park+wind fits his pull power.
Recent form · last 5
Barrel 6% · EV 86 · 1 HR over his last 5.
Matchup-Fit · barrel alignment vs Jaden Hill’s arsenal
Change 35% usedbarrels 0% · allows 0%
4-Seam 30% usedbarrels 10% · allows 0% · 3 HR
Sinker 18% usedbarrels 0% · allows 0%
Slider 17% usedbarrels 0% · allows 14% · 1 HR
Air / Park
Pulls 27% in the air; pull side RF — park ×1.24 × wind out to RF (10 mph) ×1.03 → net ×1.28 → park+wind fits his pull power.
Recent form · last 5
Barrel 6% · EV 86 · 1 HR over his last 5.
Matchup-Fit · barrel alignment vs Seth Halvorsen’s arsenal
4-Seam 61% usedbarrels 10% · allows 0% · 3 HR
Splitter 28% usedbarrels 0% · allows —
Slider 11% usedbarrels 0% · allows — · 1 HR
Air / Park
Pulls 27% in the air; pull side RF — park ×1.24 × wind out to RF (10 mph) ×1.03 → net ×1.28 → park+wind fits his pull power.
Recent form · last 5
Barrel 6% · EV 86 · 1 HR over his last 5.
Matchup Lab
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Batter Stats
Last 5 games · H/AB · K · GB · FB · barrel · EV · HR/FB · HR
| H/AB | K | GB | FB | BRL | EV | HR/FB | HR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5G | 9/22 | 4 | 28% | 50% | 6% | 86 | 11% | 1 |
| 06/14 | 2/4 | 1 | 67% | 33% | 0% | 90 | 0% | 0 |
| 06/13 | 3/5 | 2 | 0% | 67% | 33% | 92 | 50% | 1 |
| 06/12 | 1/4 | 1 | 0% | 67% | 0% | 99 | 0% | 0 |
| 06/11 | 2/5 | 0 | 60% | 20% | 0% | 73 | 0% | 0 |
| 06/10 | 1/4 | 0 | 0% | 75% | 0% | 86 | 0% | 0 |
Swing & Bat Tracking (575 swings)
bat tracking
Bat speed74.8 mph
Swing length7.4 ft
Attack angle14.4°
contact
swing timing
Early21%
On-time66%
Late13%
miss profile
Over18%
Under22%
Tied-up14%
Centered65%
Flailed22%
Batter power & contact · longer + greener = more HR-likely
vs LHP · 3 HR in 107 PA
vs RHP · 9 HR in 219 PA
Matchup strength · longer + greener = more HR-favorable
matchup strength
supporting
Home / Away HR splits · season-to-date
Home HOME6 HR / 144 PA · 4.2%
Home · .460 SLG
Away AWAY6 HR / 160 PA · 3.8%
Away · .465 SLG
Park fit · spray vs this yard
Pulls 27% of contact in the air; his pull side is RF here — HR factor ×1.24 → park fits his pull power.
Pitcher
Michael Lorenzen • RHP (COL)COL @ CHC | vs CHC2/8 W–L • 7.54 ERA • 55 Ks (Tied–90th) • 1.90 WHIP1.5 HR/9 • 15% Barrel • 23% FB • 17% K • 7.54 ERA (H 8.44 / A 6.68)◐ Homer-prone on the year, quieter last 30.95hittability
Michael Lorenzen • RHP (COL)
COL @ CHC | vs CHC
2/8 W–L • 7.54 ERA • 55 Ks (Tied–90th) • 1.90 WHIP
1.5 HR/9 • 15% Barrel • 23% FB • 17% K • 7.54 ERA (H 8.44 / A 6.68)
◐ Homer-prone on the year, quieter last 3
0.95
hittability
Last 3 starts · IP / pitches / HR
◐ Homer-prone on the year, quieter last 3 Homer-prone over the full season — the quiet recent stretch is a small sample the model discounts.
06/10 5.0 IP · 84 P0 HR
06/03 3.1 IP · 85 P1 HR
05/29 3.2 IP · 70 P0 HR
Pitches to target · go-deep pitches
The pitches he's given up the most homers on — and the bats most likely to punish them.
vs lefty bats4-seam · curve
Most likely to capitalize: Crow-Armstrong 29%, Busch 28%, Happ 27%
vs righty batsslider · change
Most likely to capitalize: Suzuki 26%, Swanson 12%, Bregman 9%
HR hittability vs a league-average hitter · longer + greener = easier to take deep
vs LHB · 1.9 HR/9 · 10 HR in 173 PA
vs RHB · 1.1 HR/9 · 5 HR in 185 PA
Pitch mix · stuff · HR rating · swing-and-miss · contact
spin 2:03
spin 1:27
spin 1:34
spin 1:01
spin 6:55
spin 9:51
spin 7:59
spin 2:03
spin 1:27
spin 1:34
spin 1:01
spin 6:55
spin 9:51
spin 7:59
spin 2:03
spin 1:27
spin 1:34
spin 1:01
spin 6:55
spin 9:51
spin 7:59
Where he’s hittable · xSLG allowed by zone (vs LHB)
Green = he gives up slug there. Tap a band → out/mid/in cells → each pitch’s xSLG + a cyan contact-allowed bar. Cell splits use 2025–26; display only.
Splits · home/away & batter hand
| HR/9 | HR | Barrel | FB% | K% | ERA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.41 | 5 | — | — | 16% | 8.44 |
| Away | 1.60 | 6 | — | — | 19% | 6.68 |
| vs LHB | 1.88 | 10 | 18% | 27% | 19% | — |
| vs RHB | 1.08 | 5 | 13% | 20% | 18% | — |
HR = home runs allowed (season-to-date). ERA isn’t reported by batter hand, and barrel/FB% aren’t available by home/away — those cells show —.
Pitcher summary · vs LHB
Michael Lorenzen carries a 1.54 HR/9 and gave up 0 in his last outing (1 over his last 3). Lefties have taken him deep 10 of 15 times (2.6 HR/9 to LHB). He owns a 6.68 ERA on the road. CHC ranks 2nd in HR factor for LH hitters.
Zach Agnos • RHP (COL)COL @ CHC | vs CHC0/2 W–L • 7.80 ERA • 30 Ks • 1.66 WHIP1.4 HR/9 • 16% Barrel • 29% FB • 17% K • 7.80 ERA (H 8.14 / A 7.36)▬ Holding steady1.23hittability
Zach Agnos • RHP (COL)
COL @ CHC | vs CHC
0/2 W–L • 7.80 ERA • 30 Ks • 1.66 WHIP
1.4 HR/9 • 16% Barrel • 29% FB • 17% K • 7.80 ERA (H 8.14 / A 7.36)
▬ Holding steady
1.23
hittability
Last 3 outings · IP / pitches / HR
▬ Holding steady No big change in his home-run risk lately.
06/12 2.2 IP · 60 P relief0 HR
06/06 3.0 IP · 57 P2 HR
05/31 1.0 IP · 35 P relief1 HR
Pitches to target · go-deep pitches
The pitches he's given up the most homers on — and the bats most likely to punish them.
vs lefty batscutter · 4-seam
Most likely to capitalize: Crow-Armstrong 29%, Busch 28%, Happ 27%
vs righty bats4-seam
Most likely to capitalize: Suzuki 26%, Swanson 12%, Bregman 9%
HR hittability vs a league-average hitter · longer + greener = easier to take deep
vs LHB · 1.4 HR/9 · 4 HR in 98 PA
vs RHB · 1.4 HR/9 · 5 HR in 128 PA
Pitch mix · stuff · HR rating · swing-and-miss · contact
Splits · home/away & batter hand
| HR/9 | HR | Barrel | FB% | K% | ERA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.22 | 6 | — | — | 13% | 8.14 |
| Away | 0.98 | 2 | — | — | 17% | 7.36 |
| vs LHB | 1.39 | 4 | 17% | 30% | 20% | — |
| vs RHB | 1.37 | 5 | 14% | 25% | 15% | — |
HR = home runs allowed (season-to-date). ERA isn’t reported by batter hand, and barrel/FB% aren’t available by home/away — those cells show —.
Pitcher summary · vs LHB
Zach Agnos carries a 1.45 HR/9 and gave up 0 in his last outing (3 over his last 3). Lefties have taken him deep 4 of 9 times (1.3 HR/9 to LHB). He owns a 7.36 ERA on the road. CHC ranks 2nd in HR factor for LH hitters.
Blas Castaño • RHP (COL)COL @ CHC | vs CHC0/0 W–L • 4.19 ERA • 16 Ks • 1.45 WHIP1.9 HR/9 • 15% Barrel • 23% FB • 20% K • 4.19 ERA (H 5.59 / A 2.79)▲ Easier to take deep lately1.11hittability
Blas Castaño • RHP (COL)
COL @ CHC | vs CHC
0/0 W–L • 4.19 ERA • 16 Ks • 1.45 WHIP
1.9 HR/9 • 15% Barrel • 23% FB • 20% K • 4.19 ERA (H 5.59 / A 2.79)
▲ Easier to take deep lately
1.11
hittability
Last 3 games · IP / pitches / HR
▲ Easier to take deep lately This pitcher is trending toward giving up home runs.
06/14 1.0 IP · 20 P1 HR
06/11 2.2 IP · 46 P1 HR
06/06 2.2 IP · 46 P0 HR
Pitches to target · go-deep pitches
The pitches he's given up the most homers on — and the bats most likely to punish them.
vs lefty batscutter · sinker
Most likely to capitalize: Crow-Armstrong 29%, Busch 28%, Happ 27%
vs righty batssweeper
Most likely to capitalize: Suzuki 26%, Swanson 12%, Bregman 9%
HR hittability vs a league-average hitter · longer + greener = easier to take deep
vs LHB · 2.0 HR/9 · 4 HR in 43 PA
vs RHB · 1.1 HR/9 · 1 HR in 38 PA
Pitch mix · stuff · HR rating · swing-and-miss · contact
Splits · home/away & batter hand
| HR/9 | HR | Barrel | FB% | K% | ERA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.79 | 3 | — | — | 20% | 5.59 |
| Away | 0.93 | 1 | — | — | 19% | 2.79 |
| vs LHB | 2.02 | 4 | 15% | 22% | 15% | — |
| vs RHB | 1.14 | 1 | 14% | 25% | 27% | — |
HR = home runs allowed (season-to-date). ERA isn’t reported by batter hand, and barrel/FB% aren’t available by home/away — those cells show —.
Pitcher summary · vs LHB
Blas Castaño carries a 1.86 HR/9 and gave up 1 in his last outing (2 over his last 3). Lefties have taken him deep 4 of 5 times (3.2 HR/9 to LHB). CHC ranks 2nd in HR factor for LH hitters.
Antonio Senzatela • RHP (COL)COL @ CHC | vs CHC6/0 W–L (Tied–21st) • 2.11 ERA • 32 Ks • 1.02 WHIP1.0 HR/9 • 12% Barrel • 27% FB • 21% K • 2.11 ERA (H 3.50 / A 0.89)▲ Easier to take deep lately0.96hittability
Antonio Senzatela • RHP (COL)
COL @ CHC | vs CHC
6/0 W–L (Tied–21st) • 2.11 ERA • 32 Ks • 1.02 WHIP
1.0 HR/9 • 12% Barrel • 27% FB • 21% K • 2.11 ERA (H 3.50 / A 0.89)
▲ Easier to take deep lately
0.96
hittability
Last 3 games · IP / pitches / HR
▲ Easier to take deep lately This pitcher is trending toward giving up home runs.
06/10 1.0 IP · 14 P1 HR
06/09 1.0 IP · 22 P0 HR
06/05 1.2 IP · 39 P0 HR
Pitches to target · go-deep pitches
The pitches he's given up the most homers on — and the bats most likely to punish them.
vs lefty batscutter
Most likely to capitalize: Crow-Armstrong 29%, Busch 28%, Happ 27%
vs righty batscutter
Most likely to capitalize: Suzuki 26%, Swanson 12%, Bregman 9%
HR hittability vs a league-average hitter · longer + greener = easier to take deep
vs LHB · 1.1 HR/9 · 2 HR in 76 PA
vs RHB · 1.0 HR/9 · 2 HR in 95 PA
Pitch mix · stuff · HR rating · swing-and-miss · contact
Splits · home/away & batter hand
| HR/9 | HR | Barrel | FB% | K% | ERA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 0.50 | 1 | — | — | 21% | 3.50 |
| Away | 0.89 | 2 | — | — | 22% | 0.89 |
| vs LHB | 1.10 | 2 | 14% | 29% | 22% | — |
| vs RHB | 0.98 | 2 | 12% | 22% | 20% | — |
HR = home runs allowed (season-to-date). ERA isn’t reported by batter hand, and barrel/FB% aren’t available by home/away — those cells show —.
Pitcher summary · vs LHB
Antonio Senzatela carries a 0.97 HR/9 and gave up 1 in his last outing. CHC ranks 2nd in HR factor for LH hitters.
Juan Mejia • RHP (COL)COL @ CHC | vs CHC1/5 W–L • 5.97 ERA • 36 Ks • 1.67 WHIP0.7 HR/9 • 12% Barrel • 25% FB • 25% K • 5.97 ERA (H 5.94 / A 6.00)▬ Holding steady0.80hittability
Juan Mejia • RHP (COL)
COL @ CHC | vs CHC
1/5 W–L • 5.97 ERA • 36 Ks • 1.67 WHIP
0.7 HR/9 • 12% Barrel • 25% FB • 25% K • 5.97 ERA (H 5.94 / A 6.00)
▬ Holding steady
0.80
hittability
Last 3 games · IP / pitches / HR
▬ Holding steady No big change in his home-run risk lately.
06/13 1.1 IP · 18 P0 HR
06/10 1.0 IP · 10 P0 HR
06/06 1.0 IP · 19 P0 HR
Not enough data for this view.
HR hittability vs a league-average hitter · longer + greener = easier to take deep
vs LHB · 1.1 HR/9 · 2 HR in 72 PA
vs RHB · 0.6 HR/9 · 0 HR in 88 PA
Pitch mix · stuff · HR rating · swing-and-miss · contact
Splits · home/away & batter hand
| HR/9 | HR | Barrel | FB% | K% | ERA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 0.54 | 1 | — | — | 26% | 5.94 |
| Away | 0.60 | 1 | — | — | 22% | 6.00 |
| vs LHB | 1.13 | 2 | 14% | 27% | 25% | — |
| vs RHB | 0.57 | 0 | 12% | 22% | 23% | — |
HR = home runs allowed (season-to-date). ERA isn’t reported by batter hand, and barrel/FB% aren’t available by home/away — those cells show —.
Pitcher summary · vs LHB
Juan Mejia carries a 0.67 HR/9. He owns a 6.00 ERA on the road. CHC ranks 2nd in HR factor for LH hitters.
Victor Vodnik • RHP (COL)COL @ CHC | vs CHC1/2 W–L • 8.00 ERA • 16 Ks • 2.11 WHIP1.3 HR/9 • 10% Barrel • 20% FB • 19% K • 8.00 ERA (H 13.50 / A 4.76)▼ Tougher to homer off lately0.77hittability
Victor Vodnik • RHP (COL)
COL @ CHC | vs CHC
1/2 W–L • 8.00 ERA • 16 Ks • 2.11 WHIP
1.3 HR/9 • 10% Barrel • 20% FB • 19% K • 8.00 ERA (H 13.50 / A 4.76)
▼ Tougher to homer off lately
0.77
hittability
Last 3 games · IP / pitches / HR
▼ Tougher to homer off lately This pitcher is trending the right way — fewer homers.
05/18 0.0 IP · 14 P0 HR
05/17 1.0 IP · 11 P0 HR
05/14 0.2 IP · 16 P0 HR
Pitches to target · go-deep pitches
The pitches he's given up the most homers on — and the bats most likely to punish them.
vs lefty batschange
Most likely to capitalize: Crow-Armstrong 29%, Busch 28%, Happ 27%
vs righty batsno clear target
Most likely to capitalize: Suzuki 26%, Swanson 12%, Bregman 9%
HR hittability vs a league-average hitter · longer + greener = easier to take deep
vs LHB · 1.6 HR/9 · 3 HR in 51 PA
vs RHB · 1.0 HR/9 · 1 HR in 61 PA
Pitch mix · stuff · HR rating · swing-and-miss · contact
Splits · home/away & batter hand
| HR/9 | HR | Barrel | FB% | K% | ERA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.35 | 1 | — | — | 22% | 13.50 |
| Away | 0.79 | 1 | — | — | 15% | 4.76 |
| vs LHB | 1.60 | 3 | 13% | 22% | 22% | — |
| vs RHB | 0.95 | 1 | 10% | 21% | 18% | — |
HR = home runs allowed (season-to-date). ERA isn’t reported by batter hand, and barrel/FB% aren’t available by home/away — those cells show —.
Pitcher summary · vs LHB
Victor Vodnik carries a 1.30 HR/9. CHC ranks 2nd in HR factor for LH hitters.
Brennan Bernardino • LHP (COL)COL @ CHC | vs CHC2/3 W–L • 4.18 ERA • 22 Ks • 1.29 WHIP0.7 HR/9 • 12% Barrel • 18% FB • 20% K • 4.18 ERA (H 3.86 / A 4.50)▬ Holding steady0.77hittability
Brennan Bernardino • LHP (COL)
COL @ CHC | vs CHC
2/3 W–L • 4.18 ERA • 22 Ks • 1.29 WHIP
0.7 HR/9 • 12% Barrel • 18% FB • 20% K • 4.18 ERA (H 3.86 / A 4.50)
▬ Holding steady
0.77
hittability
Last 3 games · IP / pitches / HR
▬ Holding steady No big change in his home-run risk lately.
06/12 0.2 IP · 9 P0 HR
06/10 1.0 IP · 15 P0 HR
06/09 1.0 IP · 11 P0 HR
Pitches to target · go-deep pitches
The pitches he's given up the most homers on — and the bats most likely to punish them.
vs lefty batsno clear target
Most likely to capitalize: Crow-Armstrong 29%, Busch 28%, Ballesteros 12%
vs righty batscutter
Most likely to capitalize: Happ 27%, Suzuki 26%, Swanson 12%
HR hittability vs a league-average hitter · longer + greener = easier to take deep
vs LHB · 0.9 HR/9 · 1 HR in 72 PA
vs RHB · 0.9 HR/9 · 1 HR in 71 PA
Pitch mix · stuff · HR rating · swing-and-miss · contact
Splits · home/away & batter hand
| HR/9 | HR | Barrel | FB% | K% | ERA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.29 | 2 | — | — | 20% | 3.86 |
| Away | 0.00 | 0 | — | — | 16% | 4.50 |
| vs LHB | 0.88 | 1 | 14% | 20% | 24% | — |
| vs RHB | 0.89 | 1 | 11% | 20% | 17% | — |
HR = home runs allowed (season-to-date). ERA isn’t reported by batter hand, and barrel/FB% aren’t available by home/away — those cells show —.
Pitcher summary · vs LHB
Brennan Bernardino carries a 0.73 HR/9. CHC ranks 2nd in HR factor for LH hitters.
Jaden Hill • RHP (COL)COL @ CHC | vs CHC0/2 W–L • 5.32 ERA • 25 Ks • 1.73 WHIP0.9 HR/9 • 13% Barrel • 21% FB • 23% K • 5.32 ERA (H 5.54 / A 5.06)▲ Easier to take deep lately0.77hittability
Jaden Hill • RHP (COL)
COL @ CHC | vs CHC
0/2 W–L • 5.32 ERA • 25 Ks • 1.73 WHIP
0.9 HR/9 • 13% Barrel • 21% FB • 23% K • 5.32 ERA (H 5.54 / A 5.06)
▲ Easier to take deep lately
0.77
hittability
Last 3 games · IP / pitches / HR
▲ Easier to take deep lately This pitcher is trending toward giving up home runs.
06/13 0.1 IP · 16 P0 HR
06/09 1.0 IP · 14 P0 HR
06/07 0.1 IP · 22 P1 HR
Pitches to target · go-deep pitches
The pitches he's given up the most homers on — and the bats most likely to punish them.
vs lefty bats4-seam
Most likely to capitalize: Crow-Armstrong 29%, Busch 28%, Happ 27%
vs righty batssinker · slider
Most likely to capitalize: Suzuki 26%, Swanson 12%, Bregman 9%
HR hittability vs a league-average hitter · longer + greener = easier to take deep
vs LHB · 0.9 HR/9 · 1 HR in 75 PA
vs RHB · 1.2 HR/9 · 2 HR in 64 PA
Pitch mix · stuff · HR rating · swing-and-miss · contact
Splits · home/away & batter hand
| HR/9 | HR | Barrel | FB% | K% | ERA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.38 | 2 | — | — | 28% | 5.54 |
| Away | 0.00 | 0 | — | — | 15% | 5.06 |
| vs LHB | 0.86 | 1 | 13% | 23% | 22% | — |
| vs RHB | 1.19 | 2 | 14% | 22% | 23% | — |
HR = home runs allowed (season-to-date). ERA isn’t reported by batter hand, and barrel/FB% aren’t available by home/away — those cells show —.
Pitcher summary · vs LHB
Jaden Hill carries a 0.93 HR/9 and gave up 0 in his last outing (1 over his last 3). He owns a 5.06 ERA on the road. CHC ranks 2nd in HR factor for LH hitters.
Seth Halvorsen • RHP (COL)COL @ CHC | vs CHC0/0 W–L • 3.31 ERA • 16 Ks • 1.65 WHIP1.0 HR/9 • 17% Barrel • 22% FB • 19% K • 3.31 ERA (H 1.23 / A 5.00)▲ Easier to take deep lately0.73hittability
Seth Halvorsen • RHP (COL)
COL @ CHC | vs CHC
0/0 W–L • 3.31 ERA • 16 Ks • 1.65 WHIP
1.0 HR/9 • 17% Barrel • 22% FB • 19% K • 3.31 ERA (H 1.23 / A 5.00)
▲ Easier to take deep lately
0.73
hittability
Last 3 games · IP / pitches / HR
▲ Easier to take deep lately This pitcher is trending toward giving up home runs.
06/13 0.2 IP · 25 P0 HR
06/12 0.2 IP · 22 P2 HR
06/09 1.0 IP · 14 P0 HR
Not enough data for this view.
HR hittability vs a league-average hitter · longer + greener = easier to take deep
vs LHB · 1.1 HR/9 · 1 HR in 38 PA
vs RHB · 1.0 HR/9 · 1 HR in 55 PA
Pitch mix · stuff · HR rating · swing-and-miss · contact
Splits · home/away & batter hand
| HR/9 | HR | Barrel | FB% | K% | ERA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 0.00 | 0 | — | — | 24% | 1.23 |
| Away | 2.00 | 2 | — | — | 18% | 5.00 |
| vs LHB | 1.14 | 1 | 18% | 24% | 21% | — |
| vs RHB | 0.99 | 1 | 14% | 22% | 19% | — |
HR = home runs allowed (season-to-date). ERA isn’t reported by batter hand, and barrel/FB% aren’t available by home/away — those cells show —.
Pitcher summary · vs LHB
Seth Halvorsen carries a 0.97 HR/9 and gave up 0 in his last outing (2 over his last 3). He owns a 5.00 ERA on the road. CHC ranks 2nd in HR factor for LH hitters.
Pick who he’ll face
Matchup vs Michael LorenzenA+
Arms like Michael Lorenzen
Most similar arsenals (velocity, movement, mix): JR Ritchie, Stephen Kolek, Michael McGreevy, Merrill Kelly, Brandon Pfaadt, Slade Cecconi.
vs arms like this (since 2025), 0 HR in 35 PA (0.0% · league ~3%).
Matchup vs Zach AgnosA · ×1.13
Arms like Zach Agnos
Most similar arsenals (velocity, movement, mix): Cole Winn, Luis Severino, Colin Rea, Zack Wheeler, Tomoyuki Sugano, Zack Kelly.
vs arms like this (since 2025), 0 HR in 18 PA (0.0% · league ~3%).
Matchup vs Blas CastañoA · ×1.13
Matchup vs Antonio SenzatelaB · ×1.03
Arms like Antonio Senzatela
Most similar arsenals (velocity, movement, mix): Ryne Nelson, Spencer Strider, Freddy Peralta, Victor Vodnik, Max Scherzer, Didier Fuentes.
vs arms like this (since 2025), 3 HR in 35 PA (8.6% · league ~3%).
Matchup vs Juan MejiaA · ×1.10
Arms like Juan Mejia
Most similar arsenals (velocity, movement, mix): Matt Festa, Connor Phillips, Shohei Ohtani, Ryan Weiss, Kai-Wei Teng, Paul Sewald.
vs arms like this (since 2025), 1 HR in 12 PA (8.3% · league ~3%).
Matchup vs Victor VodnikA · ×1.16
Arms like Victor Vodnik
Most similar arsenals (velocity, movement, mix): Bubba Chandler, Juan Morillo, Luis Gil, Robert Suarez, Antonio Senzatela, Bryan Baker.
vs arms like this (since 2025), 1 HR in 35 PA (2.9% · league ~3%).
Matchup vs Brennan BernardinoA · ×1.17
Arms like Brennan Bernardino
Most similar arsenals (velocity, movement, mix): Joe Mantiply, Justin Bruihl, John King, Ranger Suarez, Aaron Bummer, Brant Hurter.
vs arms like this (since 2025), 0 HR in 36 PA (0.0% · league ~3%).
Matchup vs Jaden HillA · ×1.22
Arms like Jaden Hill
Most similar arsenals (velocity, movement, mix): Rhett Lowder, George Soriano, Alex Lange, Luis Medina, Taylor Clarke, Max Meyer.
vs arms like this (since 2025), 0 HR in 12 PA (0.0% · league ~3%).
Matchup vs Seth HalvorsenA · ×1.18
Arms like Seth Halvorsen
Most similar arsenals (velocity, movement, mix): Ryne Stanek, Didier Fuentes, Jeff Hoffman, Victor Vodnik, Michael Petersen, Joe Boyle.
vs arms like this (since 2025), 1 HR in 27 PA (3.7% · league ~3%).
Hunter Goodman RCOL AWAY vs Shota Imanaga L · CHCwind 1.06park 0.97brl 24%recent 17% HOT29%MatchupB+243
Hunter Goodman R
COL AWAY vs Shota Imanaga L · CHC
wind 1.06park 0.97brl 24%recent 17% HOT
29%
MatchupB
+243
Hunter Goodman R
COL AWAY vs Shota Imanaga L · CHC
wind 1.06park 0.97brl 24%recent 17% HOT
29%
Matchup summary · vs Shota Imanaga
Batter Summary ➖ Steady
Goodman has 5 of his 20 HRs off LHP, 44% hard-hit that side. 13 of his 20 HRs have come on the road, slugging .609 there. Goodman has been hot against arms like this lately.
Form Last ~3 weeks (recency-weighted): .362 xwOBAcon (lg .372), 17% well-hit (lg 14%), 30% hard-hit · 2 HR in 52 PA. Right around league — no real trend either way.
Ranking Reasoning
Strong HR spot.
A homer-prone starter, he's vulnerable to righties (1.9 HR/9) and the park favors RH power.
A homer-prone starter, he's vulnerable to righties (1.9 HR/9) and the park favors RH power.
🏟️ Homered here 1× at this park (since ’25)
⚾ vs Imanaga (career): 1/1 AB | 0 HR | 0K
Pitch by Pitch
Pitch-by-pitch · Imanaga throws / Goodman hits
Stuff & usage = the arm’s; whiff / contact / EV / barrel / air-ground / HR = Goodman’s 2026 vs LHP · green = bat’s edge
4-SeamSt 7747% used
Whiff
19%
Contact
81%
EV
96
Barrel
7%
Air/Gnd
43/7
HR
2
14 BBE
SplitterSt 2739% used
Whiff
50%
Contact
50%
EV
—
Barrel
—
Air/Gnd
—
HR
—
thin 2026
SweeperSt 179% used
Whiff
67%
Contact
33%
EV
—
Barrel
—
Air/Gnd
—
HR
—
thin 2026
Pitch-by-pitch · Assad throws / Goodman hits
Stuff & usage = the arm’s; whiff / contact / EV / barrel / air-ground / HR = Goodman’s 2026 vs RHP · green = bat’s edge
Sinker—55% used
Whiff
15%
Contact
85%
EV
95
Barrel
0%
Air/Gnd
5/40
HR
0
20 BBE
Sweeper—20% used
Whiff
45%
Contact
55%
EV
89
Barrel
5%
Air/Gnd
37/11
HR
1
19 BBE
Cutter—16% used
Whiff
26%
Contact
74%
EV
84
Barrel
8%
Air/Gnd
15/62
HR
0
13 BBE
Slider—6% used
Whiff
39%
Contact
61%
EV
95
Barrel
4%
Air/Gnd
22/35
HR
6
23 BBE
Pitch-by-pitch · Thornton throws / Goodman hits
Stuff & usage = the arm’s; whiff / contact / EV / barrel / air-ground / HR = Goodman’s 2026 vs RHP · green = bat’s edge
4-Seam—33% used
Whiff
21%
Contact
79%
EV
94
Barrel
6%
Air/Gnd
45/23
HR
3
31 BBE
Sweeper—27% used
Whiff
45%
Contact
55%
EV
89
Barrel
5%
Air/Gnd
37/11
HR
1
19 BBE
Cutter—25% used
Whiff
26%
Contact
74%
EV
84
Barrel
8%
Air/Gnd
15/62
HR
0
13 BBE
Sinker—10% used
Whiff
15%
Contact
85%
EV
95
Barrel
0%
Air/Gnd
5/40
HR
0
20 BBE
Pitch-by-pitch · Thielbar throws / Goodman hits
Stuff & usage = the arm’s; whiff / contact / EV / barrel / air-ground / HR = Goodman’s 2026 vs LHP · green = bat’s edge
4-Seam—48% used
Whiff
19%
Contact
81%
EV
96
Barrel
7%
Air/Gnd
43/7
HR
2
14 BBE
Curve—37% used
Whiff
20%
Contact
80%
EV
—
Barrel
—
Air/Gnd
—
HR
—
thin 2026
Slider—15% used
Whiff
29%
Contact
71%
EV
97
Barrel
0%
Air/Gnd
20/20
HR
1
5 BBE
Pitch-by-pitch · Milner throws / Goodman hits
Stuff & usage = the arm’s; whiff / contact / EV / barrel / air-ground / HR = Goodman’s 2026 vs LHP · green = bat’s edge
Sinker—28% used
Whiff
22%
Contact
78%
EV
97
Barrel
0%
Air/Gnd
0/43
HR
1
7 BBE
Change—28% used
Whiff
61%
Contact
39%
EV
82
Barrel
0%
Air/Gnd
0/100
HR
0
9 BBE
Sweeper—25% used
Whiff
67%
Contact
33%
EV
—
Barrel
—
Air/Gnd
—
HR
—
thin 2026
4-Seam—19% used
Whiff
19%
Contact
81%
EV
96
Barrel
7%
Air/Gnd
43/7
HR
2
14 BBE
Pitch-by-pitch · Webb throws / Goodman hits
Stuff & usage = the arm’s; whiff / contact / EV / barrel / air-ground / HR = Goodman’s 2026 vs RHP · green = bat’s edge
4-Seam—48% used
Whiff
21%
Contact
79%
EV
94
Barrel
6%
Air/Gnd
45/23
HR
3
31 BBE
Sweeper—26% used
Whiff
45%
Contact
55%
EV
89
Barrel
5%
Air/Gnd
37/11
HR
1
19 BBE
Change—24% used
Whiff
19%
Contact
81%
EV
92
Barrel
0%
Air/Gnd
17/33
HR
1
6 BBE
Pitch-by-pitch · Rolison throws / Goodman hits
Stuff & usage = the arm’s; whiff / contact / EV / barrel / air-ground / HR = Goodman’s 2026 vs LHP · green = bat’s edge
4-Seam—51% used
Whiff
19%
Contact
81%
EV
96
Barrel
7%
Air/Gnd
43/7
HR
2
14 BBE
Curve—35% used
Whiff
20%
Contact
80%
EV
—
Barrel
—
Air/Gnd
—
HR
—
thin 2026
Slider—8% used
Whiff
29%
Contact
71%
EV
97
Barrel
0%
Air/Gnd
20/20
HR
1
5 BBE
Change—5% used
Whiff
61%
Contact
39%
EV
82
Barrel
0%
Air/Gnd
0/100
HR
0
9 BBE
Pitch-by-pitch · Palencia throws / Goodman hits
Stuff & usage = the arm’s; whiff / contact / EV / barrel / air-ground / HR = Goodman’s 2026 vs RHP · green = bat’s edge
4-Seam—69% used
Whiff
21%
Contact
79%
EV
94
Barrel
6%
Air/Gnd
45/23
HR
3
31 BBE
Slider—30% used
Whiff
39%
Contact
61%
EV
95
Barrel
4%
Air/Gnd
22/35
HR
6
23 BBE
Pitch-by-pitch · Roberts throws / Goodman hits
Stuff & usage = the arm’s; whiff / contact / EV / barrel / air-ground / HR = Goodman’s 2026 vs RHP · green = bat’s edge
Sweeper—47% used
Whiff
45%
Contact
55%
EV
89
Barrel
5%
Air/Gnd
37/11
HR
1
19 BBE
Cutter—38% used
Whiff
26%
Contact
74%
EV
84
Barrel
8%
Air/Gnd
15/62
HR
0
13 BBE
Sinker—15% used
Whiff
15%
Contact
85%
EV
95
Barrel
0%
Air/Gnd
5/40
HR
0
20 BBE
Pitch-by-pitch · Brown throws / Goodman hits
Stuff & usage = the arm’s; whiff / contact / EV / barrel / air-ground / HR = Goodman’s 2026 vs RHP · green = bat’s edge
4-Seam—45% used
Whiff
21%
Contact
79%
EV
94
Barrel
6%
Air/Gnd
45/23
HR
3
31 BBE
Knuckle-Curve—41% used
Whiff
58%
Contact
42%
EV
—
Barrel
—
Air/Gnd
—
HR
—
thin 2026
Sinker—14% used
Whiff
15%
Contact
85%
EV
95
Barrel
0%
Air/Gnd
5/40
HR
0
20 BBE
Pitch-by-pitch · Maton throws / Goodman hits
Stuff & usage = the arm’s; whiff / contact / EV / barrel / air-ground / HR = Goodman’s 2026 vs RHP · green = bat’s edge
Curve—37% used
Whiff
44%
Contact
56%
EV
86
Barrel
17%
Air/Gnd
17/33
HR
2
12 BBE
Cutter—36% used
Whiff
26%
Contact
74%
EV
84
Barrel
8%
Air/Gnd
15/62
HR
0
13 BBE
Sweeper—15% used
Whiff
45%
Contact
55%
EV
89
Barrel
5%
Air/Gnd
37/11
HR
1
19 BBE
Sinker—11% used
Whiff
15%
Contact
85%
EV
95
Barrel
0%
Air/Gnd
5/40
HR
0
20 BBE
🎯 Target
Matchup-Fit · barrel alignment vs Shota Imanaga’s arsenal
4-Seam 47% usedbarrels 7% · allows 12% · 2 HR
Splitter 39% usedbarrels — · allows 6%
Sweeper 9% usedbarrels — · allows — · 1 HR
Air / Park
Pulls 33% in the air; pull side LF — park ×1.20 → park+wind fits his pull power.
Recent form · last 5
Barrel 9% · EV 90 · 2 HR over his last 5.
Matchup-Fit · barrel alignment vs Javier Assad’s arsenal
Sinker 55% usedbarrels 0% · allows 0%
Sweeper 20% usedbarrels 5% · allows — · 1 HR
Cutter 16% usedbarrels 8% · allows —
Slider 6% usedbarrels 4% · allows 0% · 6 HR
Air / Park
Pulls 33% in the air; pull side LF — park ×1.20 → park+wind fits his pull power.
Recent form · last 5
Barrel 9% · EV 90 · 2 HR over his last 5.
Matchup-Fit · barrel alignment vs Trent Thornton’s arsenal
4-Seam 33% usedbarrels 6% · allows 11% · 3 HR
Sweeper 27% usedbarrels 5% · allows — · 1 HR
Cutter 25% usedbarrels 8% · allows —
Sinker 10% usedbarrels 0% · allows —
Air / Park
Pulls 33% in the air; pull side LF — park ×1.20 → park+wind fits his pull power.
Recent form · last 5
Barrel 9% · EV 90 · 2 HR over his last 5.
Matchup-Fit · barrel alignment vs Caleb Thielbar’s arsenal
4-Seam 48% usedbarrels 7% · allows 6% · 2 HR
Curve 37% usedbarrels — · allows —
Slider 15% usedbarrels 0% · allows 12% · 1 HR
Air / Park
Pulls 33% in the air; pull side LF — park ×1.20 → park+wind fits his pull power.
Recent form · last 5
Barrel 9% · EV 90 · 2 HR over his last 5.
Matchup-Fit · barrel alignment vs Hoby Milner’s arsenal
Sinker 28% usedbarrels 0% · allows 5% · 1 HR
Change 28% usedbarrels 0% · allows 10%
Sweeper 25% usedbarrels — · allows — · 1 HR
4-Seam 19% usedbarrels 7% · allows 0% · 2 HR
Air / Park
Pulls 33% in the air; pull side LF — park ×1.20 → park+wind fits his pull power.
Recent form · last 5
Barrel 9% · EV 90 · 2 HR over his last 5.
Matchup-Fit · barrel alignment vs Jacob Webb’s arsenal
4-Seam 48% usedbarrels 6% · allows 22% · 3 HR
Sweeper 26% usedbarrels 5% · allows — · 1 HR
Change 24% usedbarrels 0% · allows 14% · 1 HR
Air / Park
Pulls 33% in the air; pull side LF — park ×1.20 → park+wind fits his pull power.
Recent form · last 5
Barrel 9% · EV 90 · 2 HR over his last 5.
Matchup-Fit · barrel alignment vs Ryan Rolison’s arsenal
4-Seam 51% usedbarrels 7% · allows 10% · 2 HR
Curve 35% usedbarrels — · allows 8%
Slider 8% usedbarrels 0% · allows 0% · 1 HR
Change 5% usedbarrels 0% · allows —
Air / Park
Pulls 33% in the air; pull side LF — park ×1.20 → park+wind fits his pull power.
Recent form · last 5
Barrel 9% · EV 90 · 2 HR over his last 5.
Matchup-Fit · barrel alignment vs Daniel Palencia’s arsenal
4-Seam 69% usedbarrels 6% · allows 0% · 3 HR
Slider 30% usedbarrels 4% · allows — · 6 HR
Air / Park
Pulls 33% in the air; pull side LF — park ×1.20 → park+wind fits his pull power.
Recent form · last 5
Barrel 9% · EV 90 · 2 HR over his last 5.
Matchup-Fit · barrel alignment vs Ethan Roberts’s arsenal
Sweeper 47% usedbarrels 5% · allows 8% · 1 HR
Cutter 38% usedbarrels 8% · allows 0%
Sinker 15% usedbarrels 0% · allows —
Air / Park
Pulls 33% in the air; pull side LF — park ×1.20 → park+wind fits his pull power.
Recent form · last 5
Barrel 9% · EV 90 · 2 HR over his last 5.
Matchup-Fit · barrel alignment vs Ben Brown’s arsenal
4-Seam 45% usedbarrels 6% · allows 7% · 3 HR
Knuckle-Curve 41% usedbarrels — · allows 4%
Sinker 14% usedbarrels 0% · allows 0%
Air / Park
Pulls 33% in the air; pull side LF — park ×1.20 → park+wind fits his pull power.
Recent form · last 5
Barrel 9% · EV 90 · 2 HR over his last 5.
Matchup-Fit · barrel alignment vs Phil Maton’s arsenal
Curve 37% usedbarrels 17% · allows 7% · 2 HR
Cutter 36% usedbarrels 8% · allows 0%
Sweeper 15% usedbarrels 5% · allows — · 1 HR
Sinker 11% usedbarrels 0% · allows —
Air / Park
Pulls 33% in the air; pull side LF — park ×1.20 → park+wind fits his pull power.
Recent form · last 5
Barrel 9% · EV 90 · 2 HR over his last 5.
Matchup Lab
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Batter Stats
Last 5 games · H/AB · K · GB · FB · barrel · EV · HR/FB · HR
| H/AB | K | GB | FB | BRL | EV | HR/FB | HR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5G | 7/22 | 10 | 27% | 9% | 9% | 90 | 200% | 2 |
| 06/14 | 5/6 | 0 | 40% | 20% | 20% | 101 | 200% | 2 |
| 06/13 | 0/4 | 3 | 100% | 0% | 0% | 80 | — | 0 |
| 06/12 | 0/4 | 3 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 92 | — | 0 |
| 06/11 | 0/5 | 3 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 68 | — | 0 |
| 06/10 | 2/3 | 1 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 91 | — | 0 |
Swing & Bat Tracking (520 swings)
bat tracking
Bat speed75.3 mph
Swing length7.4 ft
Attack angle14.7°
contact
swing timing
Early33%
On-time52%
Late16%
miss profile
Over22%
Under31%
Tied-up6%
Centered58%
Flailed36%
Batter power & contact · longer + greener = more HR-likely
vs LHP · 6 HR in 95 PA
vs RHP · 17 HR in 245 PA
Matchup strength · longer + greener = more HR-favorable
matchup strength
supporting
Home / Away HR splits · season-to-date
Home HOME7 HR / 130 PA · 5.4%
Home · .447 SLG
Away AWAY13 HR / 150 PA · 8.7%
Away · .609 SLG
Park fit · spray vs this yard
Pulls 33% of contact in the air; his pull side is LF here — HR factor ×1.20 → park fits his pull power.
Pitcher
Shota Imanaga • LHP (CHC)COL @ CHC | vs COL4/6 W–L (Tied–59th) • 4.44 ERA (59th) • 81 Ks (Tied–22nd) • 1.06 WHIP (16th)1.8 HR/9 • 15% Barrel • 26% FB • 24% K • 4.44 ERA (H 5.13 / A 3.48)▲ Easier to take deep lately1.07hittability
Shota Imanaga • LHP (CHC)
COL @ CHC | vs COL
4/6 W–L (Tied–59th) • 4.44 ERA (59th) • 81 Ks (Tied–22nd) • 1.06 WHIP (16th)
1.8 HR/9 • 15% Barrel • 26% FB • 24% K • 4.44 ERA (H 5.13 / A 3.48)
▲ Easier to take deep lately
1.07
hittability
Last 3 starts · IP / pitches / HR
▲ Easier to take deep lately This pitcher is trending toward giving up home runs.
06/10 5.0 IP · 90 P0 HR
06/04 6.0 IP · 84 P4 HR
05/29 5.1 IP · 75 P3 HR
Pitches to target · go-deep pitches
The pitches he's given up the most homers on — and the bats most likely to punish them.
vs lefty batssinker · sweeper
Most likely to capitalize: Rumfield 11%, McCarthy 6%
vs righty batssplit · sinker
Most likely to capitalize: Goodman 29%, Tovar 22%, Castro 15%
HR hittability vs a league-average hitter · longer + greener = easier to take deep
vs LHB · 1.5 HR/9 · 5 HR in 112 PA
vs RHB · 1.8 HR/9 · 14 HR in 265 PA
Pitch mix · stuff · HR rating · swing-and-miss · contact
spin 10:54
spin 10:22
spin 4:01
spin 10:37
spin 10:54
spin 10:22
spin 4:01
spin 10:37
spin 10:54
spin 10:22
spin 4:01
spin 10:37
Where he’s hittable · xSLG allowed by zone (vs RHB)
Green = he gives up slug there. Tap a band → out/mid/in cells → each pitch’s xSLG + a cyan contact-allowed bar. Cell splits use 2025–26; display only.
Splits · home/away & batter hand
| HR/9 | HR | Barrel | FB% | K% | ERA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.28 | 12 | — | — | 23% | 5.13 |
| Away | 1.34 | 5 | — | — | 27% | 3.48 |
| vs LHB | 1.49 | 5 | 17% | 24% | 27% | — |
| vs RHB | 1.82 | 14 | 14% | 25% | 22% | — |
HR = home runs allowed (season-to-date). ERA isn’t reported by batter hand, and barrel/FB% aren’t available by home/away — those cells show —.
Pitcher summary · vs RHB
Shota Imanaga carries a 1.82 HR/9 and gave up 0 in his last outing (7 over his last 3). Righties have taken him deep 14 of 19 times (1.9 HR/9 to RHB). He owns a 5.13 ERA at home. CHC ranks 4th in HR factor for RH hitters.
Javier Assad • RHP (CHC)COL @ CHC | vs COL4/1 W–L (Tied–59th) • 3.99 ERA • 24 Ks • 1.02 WHIP1.0 HR/9 • 12% Barrel • 23% FB • 18% K • 3.99 ERA (H 0.63 / A 6.00)◐ Homer-prone on the year, quieter last 30.96hittability
Javier Assad • RHP (CHC)
COL @ CHC | vs COL
4/1 W–L (Tied–59th) • 3.99 ERA • 24 Ks • 1.02 WHIP
1.0 HR/9 • 12% Barrel • 23% FB • 18% K • 3.99 ERA (H 0.63 / A 6.00)
◐ Homer-prone on the year, quieter last 3
0.96
hittability
Last 3 outings · IP / pitches / HR
◐ Homer-prone on the year, quieter last 3 Homer-prone over the full season — the quiet recent stretch is a small sample the model discounts.
06/12 6.0 IP · 85 P0 HR
06/07 6.1 IP · 72 P bulk0 HR
05/15 2.0 IP · 39 P relief1 HR
Pitches to target · go-deep pitches
The pitches he's given up the most homers on — and the bats most likely to punish them.
vs lefty batschange · sinker
Most likely to capitalize: Castro 15%, Rumfield 11%, McCarthy 6%
vs righty batsno clear target
Most likely to capitalize: Goodman 29%, Tovar 22%, Fulford 12%
HR hittability vs a league-average hitter · longer + greener = easier to take deep
vs LHB · 1.5 HR/9 · 4 HR in 83 PA
vs RHB · 0.6 HR/9 · 0 HR in 76 PA
Pitch mix · stuff · HR rating · swing-and-miss · contact
Splits · home/away & batter hand
| HR/9 | HR | Barrel | FB% | K% | ERA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 0.63 | 1 | — | — | 19% | 0.63 |
| Away | 1.13 | 3 | — | — | 15% | 6.00 |
| vs LHB | 1.52 | 4 | 14% | 27% | 20% | — |
| vs RHB | 0.62 | 0 | 11% | 19% | 17% | — |
HR = home runs allowed (season-to-date). ERA isn’t reported by batter hand, and barrel/FB% aren’t available by home/away — those cells show —.
Pitcher summary · vs RHB
Javier Assad carries a 1.02 HR/9 and gave up 0 in his last outing (1 over his last 3). CHC ranks 4th in HR factor for RH hitters.
Trent Thornton • RHP (CHC)COL @ CHC | vs COL2/2 W–L • 2.00 ERA • 8 Ks • 1.00 WHIP1.5 HR/9 • 13% Barrel • 19% FB • 16% K • 2.00 ERA (H 2.25 / A 1.80)▲ Easier to take deep lately0.94hittability
Trent Thornton • RHP (CHC)
COL @ CHC | vs COL
2/2 W–L • 2.00 ERA • 8 Ks • 1.00 WHIP
1.5 HR/9 • 13% Barrel • 19% FB • 16% K • 2.00 ERA (H 2.25 / A 1.80)
▲ Easier to take deep lately
0.94
hittability
Last 3 games · IP / pitches / HR
▲ Easier to take deep lately This pitcher is trending toward giving up home runs.
06/12 2.0 IP · 26 P1 HR
06/07 1.0 IP · 17 P0 HR
06/04 1.1 IP · 22 P0 HR
Pitches to target · go-deep pitches
The pitches he's given up the most homers on — and the bats most likely to punish them.
vs lefty bats4-seam
Most likely to capitalize: Castro 15%, Rumfield 11%, McCarthy 6%
vs righty batscutter
Most likely to capitalize: Goodman 29%, Tovar 22%, Fulford 12%
HR hittability vs a league-average hitter · longer + greener = easier to take deep
vs LHB · 1.6 HR/9 · 2 HR in 29 PA
vs RHB · 1.2 HR/9 · 1 HR in 36 PA
Pitch mix · stuff · HR rating · swing-and-miss · contact
Splits · home/away & batter hand
| HR/9 | HR | Barrel | FB% | K% | ERA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.13 | 1 | — | — | 6% | 2.25 |
| Away | 1.80 | 2 | — | — | 17% | 1.80 |
| vs LHB | 1.58 | 2 | 14% | 23% | 20% | — |
| vs RHB | 1.15 | 1 | 13% | 19% | 16% | — |
HR = home runs allowed (season-to-date). ERA isn’t reported by batter hand, and barrel/FB% aren’t available by home/away — those cells show —.
Pitcher summary · vs RHB
Trent Thornton carries a 1.49 HR/9 and gave up 1 in his last outing. CHC ranks 4th in HR factor for RH hitters.
Caleb Thielbar • LHP (CHC)COL @ CHC | vs COL2/2 W–L • 3.50 ERA • 20 Ks • 1.17 WHIP1.7 HR/9 • 15% Barrel • 29% FB • 22% K • 3.50 ERA (H 5.91 / A 0.00)▲ Easier to take deep lately0.90hittability
Caleb Thielbar • LHP (CHC)
COL @ CHC | vs COL
2/2 W–L • 3.50 ERA • 20 Ks • 1.17 WHIP
1.7 HR/9 • 15% Barrel • 29% FB • 22% K • 3.50 ERA (H 5.91 / A 0.00)
▲ Easier to take deep lately
0.90
hittability
Last 3 games · IP / pitches / HR
▲ Easier to take deep lately This pitcher is trending toward giving up home runs.
06/13 1.2 IP · 23 P0 HR
06/10 1.1 IP · 20 P0 HR
06/06 0.2 IP · 11 P1 HR
Pitches to target · go-deep pitches
The pitches he's given up the most homers on — and the bats most likely to punish them.
vs lefty bats4-seam
Most likely to capitalize: Rumfield 11%, McCarthy 6%
vs righty batsslider · curve
Most likely to capitalize: Goodman 29%, Tovar 22%, Castro 15%
HR hittability vs a league-average hitter · longer + greener = easier to take deep
vs LHB · 1.1 HR/9 · 1 HR in 38 PA
vs RHB · 1.8 HR/9 · 4 HR in 58 PA
Pitch mix · stuff · HR rating · swing-and-miss · contact
Splits · home/away & batter hand
| HR/9 | HR | Barrel | FB% | K% | ERA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.38 | 4 | — | — | 26% | 5.91 |
| Away | 0.00 | 0 | — | — | 29% | 0.00 |
| vs LHB | 1.14 | 1 | 15% | 23% | 20% | — |
| vs RHB | 1.80 | 4 | 13% | 29% | 24% | — |
HR = home runs allowed (season-to-date). ERA isn’t reported by batter hand, and barrel/FB% aren’t available by home/away — those cells show —.
Pitcher summary · vs RHB
Caleb Thielbar carries a 1.68 HR/9 and gave up 0 in his last outing (1 over his last 3). Righties have taken him deep 4 of 5 times (2.5 HR/9 to RHB). He owns a 5.91 ERA at home. CHC ranks 4th in HR factor for RH hitters.
Hoby Milner • LHP (CHC)COL @ CHC | vs COL1/0 W–L • 3.73 ERA • 15 Ks • 1.15 WHIP0.9 HR/9 • 16% Barrel • 21% FB • 16% K • 3.73 ERA (H 6.28 / A 1.59)◐ Homer-prone on the year, quieter last 30.90hittability
Hoby Milner • LHP (CHC)
COL @ CHC | vs COL
1/0 W–L • 3.73 ERA • 15 Ks • 1.15 WHIP
0.9 HR/9 • 16% Barrel • 21% FB • 16% K • 3.73 ERA (H 6.28 / A 1.59)
◐ Homer-prone on the year, quieter last 3
0.90
hittability
Last 3 games · IP / pitches / HR
◐ Homer-prone on the year, quieter last 3 Homer-prone over the full season — the quiet recent stretch is a small sample the model discounts.
06/14 1.0 IP · 13 P0 HR
06/12 1.0 IP · 14 P0 HR
06/11 0.1 IP · 10 P0 HR
Pitches to target · go-deep pitches
The pitches he's given up the most homers on — and the bats most likely to punish them.
vs lefty batsno clear target
Most likely to capitalize: Rumfield 11%, McCarthy 6%
vs righty batssweeper · change
Most likely to capitalize: Goodman 29%, Tovar 22%, Castro 15%
HR hittability vs a league-average hitter · longer + greener = easier to take deep
vs LHB · 0.9 HR/9 · 1 HR in 67 PA
vs RHB · 1.1 HR/9 · 2 HR in 76 PA
Pitch mix · stuff · HR rating · swing-and-miss · contact
Splits · home/away & batter hand
| HR/9 | HR | Barrel | FB% | K% | ERA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.26 | 2 | — | — | 9% | 6.28 |
| Away | 0.53 | 1 | — | — | 14% | 1.59 |
| vs LHB | 0.91 | 1 | 14% | 25% | 15% | — |
| vs RHB | 1.10 | 2 | 16% | 19% | 19% | — |
HR = home runs allowed (season-to-date). ERA isn’t reported by batter hand, and barrel/FB% aren’t available by home/away — those cells show —.
Pitcher summary · vs RHB
Hoby Milner carries a 0.92 HR/9. He owns a 6.28 ERA at home. CHC ranks 4th in HR factor for RH hitters.
Jacob Webb • RHP (CHC)COL @ CHC | vs COL1/1 W–L • 2.73 ERA • 35 Ks • 1.31 WHIP1.5 HR/9 • 14% Barrel • 24% FB • 25% K • 2.73 ERA (H 0.55 / A 5.40)▲ Easier to take deep lately0.90hittability
Jacob Webb • RHP (CHC)
COL @ CHC | vs COL
1/1 W–L • 2.73 ERA • 35 Ks • 1.31 WHIP
1.5 HR/9 • 14% Barrel • 24% FB • 25% K • 2.73 ERA (H 0.55 / A 5.40)
▲ Easier to take deep lately
0.90
hittability
Last 3 games · IP / pitches / HR
▲ Easier to take deep lately This pitcher is trending toward giving up home runs.
06/14 0.1 IP · 8 P0 HR
06/10 1.0 IP · 12 P1 HR
06/07 0.2 IP · 7 P0 HR
Pitches to target · go-deep pitches
The pitches he's given up the most homers on — and the bats most likely to punish them.
vs lefty batschange
Most likely to capitalize: Castro 15%, Rumfield 11%, McCarthy 6%
vs righty bats4-seam
Most likely to capitalize: Goodman 29%, Tovar 22%, Fulford 12%
HR hittability vs a league-average hitter · longer + greener = easier to take deep
vs LHB · 1.5 HR/9 · 4 HR in 82 PA
vs RHB · 1.3 HR/9 · 2 HR in 56 PA
Pitch mix · stuff · HR rating · swing-and-miss · contact
Splits · home/away & batter hand
| HR/9 | HR | Barrel | FB% | K% | ERA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 0.55 | 1 | — | — | 27% | 0.55 |
| Away | 2.02 | 3 | — | — | 28% | 5.40 |
| vs LHB | 1.53 | 4 | 14% | 25% | 25% | — |
| vs RHB | 1.26 | 2 | 14% | 23% | 23% | — |
HR = home runs allowed (season-to-date). ERA isn’t reported by batter hand, and barrel/FB% aren’t available by home/away — those cells show —.
Pitcher summary · vs RHB
Jacob Webb carries a 1.52 HR/9 and gave up 0 in his last outing (1 over his last 3). Righties have taken him deep 2 of 6 times (0.8 HR/9 to RHB). CHC ranks 4th in HR factor for RH hitters.
Ryan Rolison • LHP (CHC)COL @ CHC | vs COL5/1 W–L (Tied–34th) • 2.13 ERA • 24 Ks • 1.18 WHIP1.2 HR/9 • 12% Barrel • 21% FB • 22% K • 2.13 ERA (H 3.24 / A 1.59)▬ Holding steady0.87hittability
Ryan Rolison • LHP (CHC)
COL @ CHC | vs COL
5/1 W–L (Tied–34th) • 2.13 ERA • 24 Ks • 1.18 WHIP
1.2 HR/9 • 12% Barrel • 21% FB • 22% K • 2.13 ERA (H 3.24 / A 1.59)
▬ Holding steady
0.87
hittability
Last 3 outings · IP / pitches / HR
▬ Holding steady No big change in his home-run risk lately.
06/14 1.1 IP · 11 P0 HR
06/11 1.0 IP · 17 P relief0 HR
06/09 1.1 IP · 20 P relief0 HR
Pitches to target · go-deep pitches
The pitches he's given up the most homers on — and the bats most likely to punish them.
vs lefty batsno clear target
Most likely to capitalize: Rumfield 11%, McCarthy 6%
vs righty bats4-seam · curve
Most likely to capitalize: Goodman 29%, Tovar 22%, Castro 15%
HR hittability vs a league-average hitter · longer + greener = easier to take deep
vs LHB · 0.7 HR/9 · 0 HR in 51 PA
vs RHB · 1.6 HR/9 · 4 HR in 71 PA
Pitch mix · stuff · HR rating · swing-and-miss · contact
Splits · home/away & batter hand
| HR/9 | HR | Barrel | FB% | K% | ERA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.08 | 1 | — | — | 45% | 3.24 |
| Away | 1.06 | 2 | — | — | 14% | 1.59 |
| vs LHB | 0.73 | 0 | 11% | 23% | 25% | — |
| vs RHB | 1.64 | 4 | 14% | 21% | 19% | — |
HR = home runs allowed (season-to-date). ERA isn’t reported by batter hand, and barrel/FB% aren’t available by home/away — those cells show —.
Pitcher summary · vs RHB
Ryan Rolison carries a 1.23 HR/9. Righties have taken him deep 4 of 4 times (1.9 HR/9 to RHB). CHC ranks 4th in HR factor for RH hitters.
Daniel Palencia • RHP (CHC)COL @ CHC | vs COL1/1 W–L • 2.87 ERA • 16 Ks • 1.40 WHIP1.1 HR/9 • 13% Barrel • 22% FB • 24% K • 2.87 ERA (H 0.90 / A 6.35)◐ Homer-prone on the year, quieter last 30.85hittability
Daniel Palencia • RHP (CHC)
COL @ CHC | vs COL
1/1 W–L • 2.87 ERA • 16 Ks • 1.40 WHIP
1.1 HR/9 • 13% Barrel • 22% FB • 24% K • 2.87 ERA (H 0.90 / A 6.35)
◐ Homer-prone on the year, quieter last 3
0.85
hittability
Last 3 games · IP / pitches / HR
◐ Homer-prone on the year, quieter last 3 Homer-prone over the full season — the quiet recent stretch is a small sample the model discounts.
06/10 0.0 IP · 18 P0 HR
06/07 1.0 IP · 16 P0 HR
06/06 1.0 IP · 19 P0 HR
Pitches to target · go-deep pitches
The pitches he's given up the most homers on — and the bats most likely to punish them.
vs lefty batsslider
Most likely to capitalize: Castro 15%, Rumfield 11%, McCarthy 6%
vs righty batsno clear target
Most likely to capitalize: Goodman 29%, Tovar 22%, Fulford 12%
HR hittability vs a league-average hitter · longer + greener = easier to take deep
vs LHB · 1.4 HR/9 · 2 HR in 39 PA
vs RHB · 0.8 HR/9 · 0 HR in 37 PA
Pitch mix · stuff · HR rating · swing-and-miss · contact
Splits · home/away & batter hand
| HR/9 | HR | Barrel | FB% | K% | ERA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 0.00 | 0 | — | — | 28% | 0.90 |
| Away | 3.18 | 2 | — | — | 19% | 6.35 |
| vs LHB | 1.45 | 2 | 15% | 25% | 21% | — |
| vs RHB | 0.82 | 0 | 12% | 20% | 26% | — |
HR = home runs allowed (season-to-date). ERA isn’t reported by batter hand, and barrel/FB% aren’t available by home/away — those cells show —.
Pitcher summary · vs RHB
Daniel Palencia carries a 1.09 HR/9. CHC ranks 4th in HR factor for RH hitters.
Ethan Roberts • RHP (CHC)COL @ CHC | vs COL0/1 W–L • 2.14 ERA • 16 Ks • 1.24 WHIP0.9 HR/9 • 10% Barrel • 19% FB • 20% K • 2.14 ERA (H 2.00 / A 2.25)▼ Tougher to homer off lately0.79hittability
Ethan Roberts • RHP (CHC)
COL @ CHC | vs COL
0/1 W–L • 2.14 ERA • 16 Ks • 1.24 WHIP
0.9 HR/9 • 10% Barrel • 19% FB • 20% K • 2.14 ERA (H 2.00 / A 2.25)
▼ Tougher to homer off lately
0.79
hittability
Last 3 games · IP / pitches / HR
▼ Tougher to homer off lately This pitcher is trending the right way — fewer homers.
06/14 0.2 IP · 32 P0 HR
06/13 1.0 IP · 20 P0 HR
06/09 1.0 IP · 16 P0 HR
Pitches to target · go-deep pitches
The pitches he's given up the most homers on — and the bats most likely to punish them.
vs lefty batsno clear target
Most likely to capitalize: Castro 15%, Rumfield 11%, McCarthy 6%
vs righty batssweeper
Most likely to capitalize: Goodman 29%, Tovar 22%, Fulford 12%
HR hittability vs a league-average hitter · longer + greener = easier to take deep
vs LHB · 0.8 HR/9 · 0 HR in 40 PA
vs RHB · 1.2 HR/9 · 2 HR in 59 PA
Pitch mix · stuff · HR rating · swing-and-miss · contact
Splits · home/away & batter hand
| HR/9 | HR | Barrel | FB% | K% | ERA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.00 | 1 | — | — | 19% | 2.00 |
| Away | 0.00 | 0 | — | — | 18% | 2.25 |
| vs LHB | 0.80 | 0 | 11% | 22% | 18% | — |
| vs RHB | 1.24 | 2 | 12% | 20% | 22% | — |
HR = home runs allowed (season-to-date). ERA isn’t reported by batter hand, and barrel/FB% aren’t available by home/away — those cells show —.
Pitcher summary · vs RHB
Ethan Roberts carries a 0.93 HR/9. CHC ranks 4th in HR factor for RH hitters.
Ben Brown • RHP (CHC)COL @ CHC | vs COL3/2 W–L • 1.74 ERA • 61 Ks (Tied–69th) • 0.97 WHIP0.3 HR/9 • 12% Barrel • 19% FB • 25% K • 1.74 ERA (H 2.05 / A 1.51)◐ Homer-prone on the year, quieter last 30.75hittability
Ben Brown • RHP (CHC)
COL @ CHC | vs COL
3/2 W–L • 1.74 ERA • 61 Ks (Tied–69th) • 0.97 WHIP
0.3 HR/9 • 12% Barrel • 19% FB • 25% K • 1.74 ERA (H 2.05 / A 1.51)
◐ Homer-prone on the year, quieter last 3
0.75
hittability
Last 3 starts · IP / pitches / HR
◐ Homer-prone on the year, quieter last 3 Homer-prone over the full season — the quiet recent stretch is a small sample the model discounts.
06/13 5.0 IP · 86 P0 HR
06/06 5.1 IP · 87 P0 HR
05/30 7.0 IP · 82 P0 HR
Pitches to target · go-deep pitches
The pitches he's given up the most homers on — and the bats most likely to punish them.
vs lefty batsno clear target
Most likely to capitalize: Castro 15%, Rumfield 11%, McCarthy 6%
vs righty bats4-seam
Most likely to capitalize: Goodman 29%, Tovar 22%, Fulford 12%
HR hittability vs a league-average hitter · longer + greener = easier to take deep
vs LHB · 0.4 HR/9 · 0 HR in 144 PA
vs RHB · 0.6 HR/9 · 1 HR in 128 PA
Pitch mix · stuff · HR rating · swing-and-miss · contact
Splits · home/away & batter hand
| HR/9 | HR | Barrel | FB% | K% | ERA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 0.34 | 1 | — | — | 28% | 2.05 |
| Away | 0.00 | 0 | — | — | 23% | 1.51 |
| vs LHB | 0.43 | 0 | 13% | 20% | 25% | — |
| vs RHB | 0.64 | 1 | 13% | 21% | 25% | — |
HR = home runs allowed (season-to-date). ERA isn’t reported by batter hand, and barrel/FB% aren’t available by home/away — those cells show —.
Pitcher summary · vs RHB
Ben Brown carries a 0.33 HR/9. CHC ranks 4th in HR factor for RH hitters.
Phil Maton • RHP (CHC)COL @ CHC | vs COL0/1 W–L • 6.17 ERA • 26 Ks • 1.67 WHIP1.2 HR/9 • 15% Barrel • 20% FB • 22% K • 6.17 ERA (H 3.27 / A 8.76)◐ Homer-prone on the year, quieter last 30.72hittability
Phil Maton • RHP (CHC)
COL @ CHC | vs COL
0/1 W–L • 6.17 ERA • 26 Ks • 1.67 WHIP
1.2 HR/9 • 15% Barrel • 20% FB • 22% K • 6.17 ERA (H 3.27 / A 8.76)
◐ Homer-prone on the year, quieter last 3
0.72
hittability
Last 3 games · IP / pitches / HR
◐ Homer-prone on the year, quieter last 3 Homer-prone over the full season — the quiet recent stretch is a small sample the model discounts.
06/13 1.1 IP · 21 P0 HR
06/11 1.0 IP · 8 P0 HR
06/10 0.2 IP · 12 P0 HR
Pitches to target · go-deep pitches
The pitches he's given up the most homers on — and the bats most likely to punish them.
vs lefty batssweeper · curve
Most likely to capitalize: Castro 15%, Rumfield 11%, McCarthy 6%
vs righty batscurve
Most likely to capitalize: Goodman 29%, Tovar 22%, Fulford 12%
HR hittability vs a league-average hitter · longer + greener = easier to take deep
vs LHB · 1.6 HR/9 · 3 HR in 53 PA
vs RHB · 0.9 HR/9 · 1 HR in 71 PA
Pitch mix · stuff · HR rating · swing-and-miss · contact
Splits · home/away & batter hand
| HR/9 | HR | Barrel | FB% | K% | ERA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 0.00 | 0 | — | — | 22% | 3.27 |
| Away | 2.19 | 3 | — | — | 25% | 8.76 |
| vs LHB | 1.58 | 3 | 16% | 22% | 20% | — |
| vs RHB | 0.89 | 1 | 13% | 21% | 23% | — |
HR = home runs allowed (season-to-date). ERA isn’t reported by batter hand, and barrel/FB% aren’t available by home/away — those cells show —.
Pitcher summary · vs RHB
Phil Maton carries a 1.22 HR/9. CHC ranks 4th in HR factor for RH hitters.
Pick who he’ll face
Matchup vs Shota ImanagaB
Arms like Shota Imanaga
Most similar arsenals (velocity, movement, mix): Cade Povich, Andrew Abbott, Andrew Nardi, Brent Headrick, Matt Strahm, Trevor Rogers.
vs arms like this (since 2025), 0 HR in 30 PA (0.0% · league ~3%).
Matchup vs Javier AssadA · ×1.22
Arms like Javier Assad
Most similar arsenals (velocity, movement, mix): Jake Woodford, Chris Bassitt, Erick Fedde, Paul Blackburn, Brandon Sproat, Brayan Bello.
vs arms like this (since 2025), 4 HR in 28 PA (14.3% · league ~3%).
Matchup vs Trent ThorntonA · ×1.22
Arms like Trent Thornton
Most similar arsenals (velocity, movement, mix): Cody Bolton, Jameson Taillon, Drew Rasmussen, Justin Sterner, Yoendrys Gómez, Nick Pivetta.
vs arms like this (since 2025), 6 HR in 40 PA (15.0% · league ~3%).
Matchup vs Caleb ThielbarA · ×1.29
Arms like Caleb Thielbar
Most similar arsenals (velocity, movement, mix): Jack Dreyer, Cade Povich, Hogan Harris, Andrew Nardi, Mitchell Parker, MacKenzie Gore.
vs arms like this (since 2025), 0 HR in 27 PA (0.0% · league ~3%).
Matchup vs Hoby MilnerA · ×1.20
Arms like Hoby Milner
Most similar arsenals (velocity, movement, mix): PJ Poulin, Joe Mantiply, Evan Sisk, Justin Bruihl, Ryan Yarbrough, Aaron Bummer.
vs arms like this (since 2025), 1 HR in 20 PA (5.0% · league ~3%).
Matchup vs Jacob WebbA · ×1.16
Arms like Jacob Webb
Most similar arsenals (velocity, movement, mix): AJ Blubaugh, Logan Henderson, Connor Brogdon, Luke Weaver, Justin Sterner, Tanner Gordon.
vs arms like this (since 2025), 2 HR in 31 PA (6.5% · league ~3%).
Matchup vs Ryan RolisonA · ×1.29
Arms like Ryan Rolison
Most similar arsenals (velocity, movement, mix): MacKenzie Gore, Mitchell Parker, Reid Detmers, Justin Wrobleski, Jacob Latz, Erik Sabrowski.
vs arms like this (since 2025), 0 HR in 20 PA (0.0% · league ~3%).
Matchup vs Daniel PalenciaA · ×1.30
Arms like Daniel Palencia
Most similar arsenals (velocity, movement, mix): Ryne Stanek, Michael Petersen, Didier Fuentes, Gus Varland, Hunter Bigge, Jacob Misiorowski.
vs arms like this (since 2025), 0 HR in 16 PA (0.0% · league ~3%).
Matchup vs Ethan RobertsA · ×1.17
Arms like Ethan Roberts
Most similar arsenals (velocity, movement, mix): Dustin May, Phil Maton, Justin Lawrence, Calvin Faucher, Zack Kelly, Anthony Bender.
vs arms like this (since 2025), 2 HR in 40 PA (5.0% · league ~3%).
Matchup vs Ben BrownA · ×1.25
Arms like Ben Brown
Most similar arsenals (velocity, movement, mix): Louis Varland, Germán Márquez, Will Vest, Trevor Megill, Bryan Abreu, Kyle Finnegan.
vs arms like this (since 2025), 3 HR in 38 PA (7.9% · league ~3%).
Matchup vs Phil MatonA · ×1.19
Arms like Phil Maton
Most similar arsenals (velocity, movement, mix): Aaron Civale, Landen Roupp, Zack Kelly, Randy Vásquez, Spencer Arrighetti, Chad Patrick.
vs arms like this (since 2025), 1 HR in 29 PA (3.4% · league ~3%).
Yordan Alvarez LHOU HOME vs Drew Anderson R · HOUwind 1.00park 1.03brl 28%recent 29% HOT29%MatchupC+244
Yordan Alvarez L
HOU HOME vs Drew Anderson R · HOU
wind 1.00park 1.03brl 28%recent 29% HOT
29%
MatchupC
+244
Yordan Alvarez L
HOU HOME vs Drew Anderson R · HOU
wind 1.00park 1.03brl 28%recent 29% HOT
29%
Matchup summary · vs Drew Anderson
Batter Summary 🔥 Hot
Alvarez has 16 of his 24 HRs off RHP, 52% hard-hit that side. 11 of his 24 HRs have come at home, slugging .710 there. Alvarez has been hot against arms like this lately.
Form Last ~3 weeks (recency-weighted): .653 xwOBAcon (lg .372), 29% well-hit (lg 14%), 61% hard-hit · 6 HR in 56 PA. Recent contact quality is beating league — the rating catches the heat before the HR totals show it.
Ranking Reasoning
Strong HR spot.
Big power vs RHP (25% barrels), hot against this kind of arsenal and holds power in two-strike counts.
Big power vs RHP (25% barrels), hot against this kind of arsenal and holds power in two-strike counts.
🏟️ Homered here 12× at this park (since ’25)
⚾ vs Anderson (career): 0/1 AB | 0 HR | 0K
Pitch by Pitch
Pitch-by-pitch · Anderson throws / Alvarez hits
Stuff & usage = the arm’s; whiff / contact / EV / barrel / air-ground / HR = Alvarez’s 2026 vs RHP · green = bat’s edge
4-Seam—43% used
Whiff
17%
Contact
83%
EV
98
Barrel
19%
Air/Gnd
56/26
HR
6
43 BBE
Change—33% used
Whiff
17%
Contact
83%
EV
93
Barrel
8%
Air/Gnd
29/25
HR
1
24 BBE
Curve—22% used
Whiff
33%
Contact
67%
EV
102
Barrel
25%
Air/Gnd
50/25
HR
3
12 BBE
Pitch-by-pitch · Jansen throws / Alvarez hits
Stuff & usage = the arm’s; whiff / contact / EV / barrel / air-ground / HR = Alvarez’s 2026 vs RHP · green = bat’s edge
Cutter—78% used
Whiff
15%
Contact
85%
EV
92
Barrel
5%
Air/Gnd
14/43
HR
1
21 BBE
Sinker—14% used
Whiff
19%
Contact
81%
EV
101
Barrel
0%
Air/Gnd
0/60
HR
1
10 BBE
Slider—6% used
Whiff
22%
Contact
78%
EV
93
Barrel
27%
Air/Gnd
55/9
HR
2
11 BBE
Pitch-by-pitch · Jesus throws / Alvarez hits
Stuff & usage = the arm’s; whiff / contact / EV / barrel / air-ground / HR = Alvarez’s 2026 vs LHP · green = bat’s edge
4-Seam—36% used
Whiff
9%
Contact
91%
EV
107
Barrel
0%
Air/Gnd
20/40
HR
1
5 BBE
Cutter—29% used
Whiff
50%
Contact
50%
EV
—
Barrel
—
Air/Gnd
—
HR
—
thin 2026
Sinker—28% used
Whiff
9%
Contact
91%
EV
94
Barrel
5%
Air/Gnd
21/42
HR
1
19 BBE
Slider—5% used
Whiff
34%
Contact
66%
EV
89
Barrel
8%
Air/Gnd
15/54
HR
1
13 BBE
Pitch-by-pitch · Finnegan throws / Alvarez hits
Stuff & usage = the arm’s; whiff / contact / EV / barrel / air-ground / HR = Alvarez’s 2026 vs RHP · green = bat’s edge
4-Seam—55% used
Whiff
17%
Contact
83%
EV
98
Barrel
19%
Air/Gnd
56/26
HR
6
43 BBE
Splitter—45% used
Whiff
22%
Contact
78%
EV
76
Barrel
0%
Air/Gnd
0/86
HR
0
7 BBE
Pitch-by-pitch · Sommers throws / Alvarez hits
Stuff & usage = the arm’s; whiff / contact / EV / barrel / air-ground / HR = Alvarez’s 2026 vs LHP · green = bat’s edge
Sinker—62% used
Whiff
9%
Contact
91%
EV
94
Barrel
5%
Air/Gnd
21/42
HR
1
19 BBE
Slider—38% used
Whiff
34%
Contact
66%
EV
89
Barrel
8%
Air/Gnd
15/54
HR
1
13 BBE
Pitch-by-pitch · Holton throws / Alvarez hits
Stuff & usage = the arm’s; whiff / contact / EV / barrel / air-ground / HR = Alvarez’s 2026 vs LHP · green = bat’s edge
Sinker—50% used
Whiff
9%
Contact
91%
EV
94
Barrel
5%
Air/Gnd
21/42
HR
1
19 BBE
Sweeper—43% used
Whiff
17%
Contact
83%
EV
93
Barrel
14%
Air/Gnd
43/29
HR
1
7 BBE
Pitch-by-pitch · Waguespack throws / Alvarez hits
Stuff & usage = the arm’s; whiff / contact / EV / barrel / air-ground / HR = Alvarez’s 2026 vs RHP · green = bat’s edge
4-Seam—42% used
Whiff
17%
Contact
83%
EV
98
Barrel
19%
Air/Gnd
56/26
HR
6
43 BBE
Change—36% used
Whiff
17%
Contact
83%
EV
93
Barrel
8%
Air/Gnd
29/25
HR
1
24 BBE
Cutter—22% used
Whiff
15%
Contact
85%
EV
92
Barrel
5%
Air/Gnd
14/43
HR
1
21 BBE
Pitch-by-pitch · Anderson throws / Alvarez hits
Stuff & usage = the arm’s; whiff / contact / EV / barrel / air-ground / HR = Alvarez’s 2026 vs RHP · green = bat’s edge
4-Seam—43% used
Whiff
17%
Contact
83%
EV
98
Barrel
19%
Air/Gnd
56/26
HR
6
43 BBE
Change—33% used
Whiff
17%
Contact
83%
EV
93
Barrel
8%
Air/Gnd
29/25
HR
1
24 BBE
Curve—22% used
Whiff
33%
Contact
67%
EV
102
Barrel
25%
Air/Gnd
50/25
HR
3
12 BBE
Pitch-by-pitch · Vest throws / Alvarez hits
Stuff & usage = the arm’s; whiff / contact / EV / barrel / air-ground / HR = Alvarez’s 2026 vs RHP · green = bat’s edge
4-Seam—57% used
Whiff
17%
Contact
83%
EV
98
Barrel
19%
Air/Gnd
56/26
HR
6
43 BBE
Slider—25% used
Whiff
22%
Contact
78%
EV
93
Barrel
27%
Air/Gnd
55/9
HR
2
11 BBE
Change—18% used
Whiff
17%
Contact
83%
EV
93
Barrel
8%
Air/Gnd
29/25
HR
1
24 BBE
🎯 Target
Matchup-Fit · barrel alignment vs Drew Anderson’s arsenal
4-Seam 43% usedbarrels 19% · allows 3% · 6 HR
Change 33% usedbarrels 8% · allows 0% · 1 HR
Curve 22% usedbarrels 25% · allows — · 3 HR
Air / Park
Pulls 27% in the air; pull side RF — park ×1.05 → park+wind neutral fit.
Recent form · last 5
Barrel 11% · EV 89 · 2 HR over his last 5.
Matchup-Fit · barrel alignment vs Kenley Jansen’s arsenal
Cutter 78% usedbarrels 5% · allows 0% · 1 HR
Sinker 14% usedbarrels 0% · allows — · 1 HR
Slider 6% usedbarrels 27% · allows — · 2 HR
Air / Park
Pulls 27% in the air; pull side RF — park ×1.05 → park+wind neutral fit.
Recent form · last 5
Barrel 11% · EV 89 · 2 HR over his last 5.
Matchup-Fit · barrel alignment vs Enmanuel De Jesus’s arsenal
4-Seam 36% usedbarrels 0% · allows 0% · 1 HR
Cutter 29% usedbarrels — · allows 7% · 1 HR
Sinker 28% usedbarrels 5% · allows 0% · 1 HR
Slider 5% usedbarrels 8% · allows — · 1 HR
Air / Park
Pulls 27% in the air; pull side RF — park ×1.05 → park+wind neutral fit.
Recent form · last 5
Barrel 11% · EV 89 · 2 HR over his last 5.
Matchup-Fit · barrel alignment vs Kyle Finnegan’s arsenal
4-Seam 55% usedbarrels 19% · allows 6% · 6 HR
Splitter 45% usedbarrels 0% · allows 4%
Air / Park
Pulls 27% in the air; pull side RF — park ×1.05 → park+wind neutral fit.
Recent form · last 5
Barrel 11% · EV 89 · 2 HR over his last 5.
Matchup-Fit · barrel alignment vs Drew Sommers’s arsenal
Sinker 62% usedbarrels 5% · allows — · 1 HR
Slider 38% usedbarrels 8% · allows — · 1 HR
Air / Park
Pulls 27% in the air; pull side RF — park ×1.05 → park+wind neutral fit.
Recent form · last 5
Barrel 11% · EV 89 · 2 HR over his last 5.
Matchup-Fit · barrel alignment vs Tyler Holton’s arsenal
Sinker 50% usedbarrels 5% · allows 5% · 1 HR
Sweeper 43% usedbarrels 14% · allows 0% · 1 HR
Air / Park
Pulls 27% in the air; pull side RF — park ×1.05 → park+wind neutral fit.
Recent form · last 5
Barrel 11% · EV 89 · 2 HR over his last 5.
Matchup-Fit · barrel alignment vs Jacob Waguespack’s arsenal
4-Seam 42% usedbarrels 19% · allows — · 6 HR
Change 36% usedbarrels 8% · allows — · 1 HR
Cutter 22% usedbarrels 5% · allows — · 1 HR
Air / Park
Pulls 27% in the air; pull side RF — park ×1.05 → park+wind neutral fit.
Recent form · last 5
Barrel 11% · EV 89 · 2 HR over his last 5.
Matchup-Fit · barrel alignment vs Drew Anderson’s arsenal
4-Seam 43% usedbarrels 19% · allows 3% · 6 HR
Change 33% usedbarrels 8% · allows 0% · 1 HR
Curve 22% usedbarrels 25% · allows — · 3 HR
Air / Park
Pulls 27% in the air; pull side RF — park ×1.05 → park+wind neutral fit.
Recent form · last 5
Barrel 11% · EV 89 · 2 HR over his last 5.
Matchup-Fit · barrel alignment vs Will Vest’s arsenal
4-Seam 57% usedbarrels 19% · allows 0% · 6 HR
Slider 25% usedbarrels 27% · allows 0% · 2 HR
Change 18% usedbarrels 8% · allows 0% · 1 HR
Air / Park
Pulls 27% in the air; pull side RF — park ×1.05 → park+wind neutral fit.
Recent form · last 5
Barrel 11% · EV 89 · 2 HR over his last 5.
Matchup Lab
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Batter Stats
Last 5 games · H/AB · K · GB · FB · barrel · EV · HR/FB · HR
| H/AB | K | GB | FB | BRL | EV | HR/FB | HR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5G | 10/20 | 2 | 28% | 28% | 11% | 89 | 40% | 2 |
| 06/14 | 1/4 | 1 | 33% | 0% | 0% | 83 | — | 0 |
| 06/13 | 3/5 | 0 | 40% | 0% | 0% | 84 | — | 0 |
| 06/12 | 3/5 | 0 | 20% | 60% | 40% | 96 | 67% | 2 |
| 06/10 | 1/4 | 1 | 0% | 67% | 0% | 89 | 0% | 0 |
| 06/09 | 2/2 | 0 | 50% | 0% | 0% | 98 | — | 0 |
Swing & Bat Tracking (518 swings)
bat tracking
Bat speed75.9 mph
Swing length7.6 ft
Attack angle9.0°
contact
swing timing
Early22%
On-time61%
Late17%
miss profile
Over4%
Under39%
Tied-up5%
Centered70%
Flailed25%
Batter power & contact · longer + greener = more HR-likely
vs LHP · 8 HR in 94 PA
vs RHP · 17 HR in 253 PA
Matchup strength · longer + greener = more HR-favorable
matchup strength
supporting
Home / Away HR splits · season-to-date
Home HOME11 HR / 149 PA · 7.4%
Home · .710 SLG
Away AWAY13 HR / 165 PA · 7.9%
Away · .599 SLG
Park fit · spray vs this yard
Pulls 27% of contact in the air; his pull side is RF here — HR factor ×1.05 → neutral park fit.
Pitcher
Drew Anderson • RHP (DET)DET @ HOU | vs HOU2/3 W–L • 3.92 ERA • 53 Ks (Tied–93rd) • 1.28 WHIP1.1 HR/9 • 14% Barrel • 20% FB • 28% K • 3.92 ERA (H 1.90 / A 6.30)▬ Holding steady0.71hittability
Drew Anderson • RHP (DET)
DET @ HOU | vs HOU
2/3 W–L • 3.92 ERA • 53 Ks (Tied–93rd) • 1.28 WHIP
1.1 HR/9 • 14% Barrel • 20% FB • 28% K • 3.92 ERA (H 1.90 / A 6.30)
▬ Holding steady
0.71
hittability
Last 3 games · IP / pitches / HR
▬ Holding steady No big change in his home-run risk lately.
06/12 1.0 IP · 21 P0 HR
06/09 0.2 IP · 17 P0 HR
06/07 1.0 IP · 16 P0 HR
Pitches to target · go-deep pitches
The pitches he's given up the most homers on — and the bats most likely to punish them.
vs lefty batsno clear target
Most likely to capitalize: Alvarez 29%
vs righty batschange
Most likely to capitalize: Walker 23%, Smith 19%, Peña 15%
HR hittability vs a league-average hitter · longer + greener = easier to take deep
vs LHB · 1.1 HR/9 · 3 HR in 114 PA
vs RHB · 1.1 HR/9 · 3 HR in 104 PA
Pitch mix · stuff · HR rating · swing-and-miss · contact
Where he’s hittable · xSLG allowed by zone (vs LHB)
Green = he gives up slug there. Tap a band → out/mid/in cells → each pitch’s xSLG + a cyan contact-allowed bar. Cell splits use 2025–26; display only.
Splits · home/away & batter hand
| HR/9 | HR | Barrel | FB% | K% | ERA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 0.76 | 2 | — | — | 27% | 1.90 |
| Away | 1.80 | 4 | — | — | 30% | 6.30 |
| vs LHB | 1.08 | 3 | 11% | 22% | 28% | — |
| vs RHB | 1.14 | 3 | 17% | 21% | 27% | — |
HR = home runs allowed (season-to-date). ERA isn’t reported by batter hand, and barrel/FB% aren’t available by home/away — those cells show —.
Pitcher summary · vs LHB
Drew Anderson carries a 1.08 HR/9. Lefties have taken him deep 3 of 6 times (1.2 HR/9 to LHB). He owns a 6.30 ERA on the road.
Kenley Jansen • RHP (DET)DET @ HOU | vs HOU1/3 W–L • 4.50 ERA • 21 Ks • 1.13 WHIP1.7 HR/9 • 17% Barrel • 26% FB • 26% K • 4.50 ERA (H 0.00 / A 10.29)▲ Easier to take deep lately1.09hittability
Kenley Jansen • RHP (DET)
DET @ HOU | vs HOU
1/3 W–L • 4.50 ERA • 21 Ks • 1.13 WHIP
1.7 HR/9 • 17% Barrel • 26% FB • 26% K • 4.50 ERA (H 0.00 / A 10.29)
▲ Easier to take deep lately
1.09
hittability
Last 3 games · IP / pitches / HR
▲ Easier to take deep lately This pitcher is trending toward giving up home runs.
06/13 1.0 IP · 9 P0 HR
05/27 0.2 IP · 9 P0 HR
05/24 1.0 IP · 24 P1 HR
Pitches to target · go-deep pitches
The pitches he's given up the most homers on — and the bats most likely to punish them.
vs lefty batssinker
Most likely to capitalize: Alvarez 29%
vs righty batsno clear target
Most likely to capitalize: Walker 23%, Smith 19%, Peña 15%
HR hittability vs a league-average hitter · longer + greener = easier to take deep
vs LHB · 1.8 HR/9 · 3 HR in 39 PA
vs RHB · 1.2 HR/9 · 1 HR in 34 PA
Pitch mix · stuff · HR rating · swing-and-miss · contact
Splits · home/away & batter hand
| HR/9 | HR | Barrel | FB% | K% | ERA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 0.00 | 0 | — | — | 26% | 0.00 |
| Away | 5.14 | 4 | — | — | 40% | 10.29 |
| vs LHB | 1.76 | 3 | 15% | 26% | 27% | — |
| vs RHB | 1.18 | 1 | 15% | 23% | 22% | — |
HR = home runs allowed (season-to-date). ERA isn’t reported by batter hand, and barrel/FB% aren’t available by home/away — those cells show —.
Pitcher summary · vs LHB
Kenley Jansen carries a 1.68 HR/9 and gave up 0 in his last outing (1 over his last 3). Lefties have taken him deep 3 of 4 times (3.5 HR/9 to LHB). He owns a 10.29 ERA on the road.
Enmanuel De Jesus • LHP (DET)DET @ HOU | vs HOU2/0 W–L • 4.78 ERA • 25 Ks • 1.41 WHIP0.6 HR/9 • 15% Barrel • 19% FB • 21% K • 4.78 ERA (H 5.14 / A 4.38)◐ Homer-prone on the year, quieter last 30.98hittability
Enmanuel De Jesus • LHP (DET)
DET @ HOU | vs HOU
2/0 W–L • 4.78 ERA • 25 Ks • 1.41 WHIP
0.6 HR/9 • 15% Barrel • 19% FB • 21% K • 4.78 ERA (H 5.14 / A 4.38)
◐ Homer-prone on the year, quieter last 3
0.98
hittability
Last 3 games · IP / pitches / HR
◐ Homer-prone on the year, quieter last 3 Homer-prone over the full season — the quiet recent stretch is a small sample the model discounts.
06/09 1.0 IP · 15 P0 HR
06/02 4.0 IP · 35 P0 HR
05/22 1.0 IP · 16 P0 HR
Pitches to target · go-deep pitches
The pitches he's given up the most homers on — and the bats most likely to punish them.
vs lefty batsno clear target
Most likely to capitalize: Alvarez 29%
vs righty batsslider
Most likely to capitalize: Walker 23%, Smith 19%, Peña 15%
HR hittability vs a league-average hitter · longer + greener = easier to take deep
vs LHB · 0.7 HR/9 · 0 HR in 63 PA
vs RHB · 0.9 HR/9 · 1 HR in 68 PA
Pitch mix · stuff · HR rating · swing-and-miss · contact
Splits · home/away & batter hand
| HR/9 | HR | Barrel | FB% | K% | ERA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 0.64 | 1 | — | — | 22% | 5.14 |
| Away | 0.00 | 0 | — | — | 22% | 4.38 |
| vs LHB | 0.67 | 0 | 15% | 20% | 20% | — |
| vs RHB | 0.91 | 1 | 14% | 22% | 22% | — |
HR = home runs allowed (season-to-date). ERA isn’t reported by batter hand, and barrel/FB% aren’t available by home/away — those cells show —.
Pitcher summary · vs LHB
Enmanuel De Jesus carries a 0.58 HR/9.
Kyle Finnegan • RHP (DET)DET @ HOU | vs HOU1/0 W–L • 1.93 ERA • 20 Ks • 1.47 WHIP0.7 HR/9 • 12% Barrel • 21% FB • 17% K • 1.93 ERA (H 1.29 / A 2.41)◐ Homer-prone on the year, quieter last 30.91hittability
Kyle Finnegan • RHP (DET)
DET @ HOU | vs HOU
1/0 W–L • 1.93 ERA • 20 Ks • 1.47 WHIP
0.7 HR/9 • 12% Barrel • 21% FB • 17% K • 1.93 ERA (H 1.29 / A 2.41)
◐ Homer-prone on the year, quieter last 3
0.91
hittability
Last 3 games · IP / pitches / HR
◐ Homer-prone on the year, quieter last 3 Homer-prone over the full season — the quiet recent stretch is a small sample the model discounts.
06/13 1.1 IP · 15 P0 HR
06/09 1.2 IP · 22 P0 HR
06/07 1.0 IP · 17 P0 HR
Pitches to target · go-deep pitches
The pitches he's given up the most homers on — and the bats most likely to punish them.
vs lefty batssplit
Most likely to capitalize: Alvarez 29%
vs righty batsno clear target
Most likely to capitalize: Walker 23%, Smith 19%, Peña 15%
HR hittability vs a league-average hitter · longer + greener = easier to take deep
vs LHB · 1.2 HR/9 · 2 HR in 68 PA
vs RHB · 0.6 HR/9 · 0 HR in 73 PA
Pitch mix · stuff · HR rating · swing-and-miss · contact
Splits · home/away & batter hand
| HR/9 | HR | Barrel | FB% | K% | ERA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 0.64 | 1 | — | — | 15% | 1.29 |
| Away | 0.48 | 1 | — | — | 15% | 2.41 |
| vs LHB | 1.16 | 2 | 12% | 26% | 17% | — |
| vs RHB | 0.63 | 0 | 13% | 17% | 20% | — |
HR = home runs allowed (season-to-date). ERA isn’t reported by batter hand, and barrel/FB% aren’t available by home/away — those cells show —.
Pitcher summary · vs LHB
Kyle Finnegan carries a 0.74 HR/9.
Drew Sommers • LHP (DET)DET @ HOU | vs HOU0/0 W–L • 0.00 ERA • 7 Ks • 1.07 WHIP0.9 HR/9 • 16% Barrel • 26% FB • 25% K • 0.00 ERA (H 0.00 / A 0.00)▬ Holding steady0.83hittability
Drew Sommers • LHP (DET)
DET @ HOU | vs HOU
0/0 W–L • 0.00 ERA • 7 Ks • 1.07 WHIP
0.9 HR/9 • 16% Barrel • 26% FB • 25% K • 0.00 ERA (H 0.00 / A 0.00)
▬ Holding steady
0.83
hittability
Last 3 games · IP / pitches / HR
▬ Holding steady No big change in his home-run risk lately.
06/12 1.0 IP · 15 P0 HR
06/10 0.2 IP · 17 P0 HR
06/07 0.2 IP · 11 P0 HR
Not enough data for this view.
HR hittability vs a league-average hitter · longer + greener = easier to take deep
vs LHB · 1.0 HR/9 · 0 HR in 12 PA
vs RHB · 1.0 HR/9 · 0 HR in 12 PA
Pitch mix · stuff · HR rating · swing-and-miss · contact
Splits · home/away & batter hand
| HR/9 | HR | Barrel | FB% | K% | ERA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 0.00 | 0 | — | — | 38% | 0.00 |
| Away | 0.00 | 0 | — | — | 29% | 0.00 |
| vs LHB | 1.04 | 0 | 15% | 25% | 25% | — |
| vs RHB | 1.04 | 0 | 15% | 23% | 22% | — |
HR = home runs allowed (season-to-date). ERA isn’t reported by batter hand, and barrel/FB% aren’t available by home/away — those cells show —.
Pitcher summary · vs LHB
Drew Sommers carries a 0.86 HR/9.
Tyler Holton • LHP (DET)DET @ HOU | vs HOU1/4 W–L • 4.02 ERA • 27 Ks • 1.44 WHIP1.1 HR/9 • 12% Barrel • 19% FB • 20% K • 4.02 ERA (H 3.29 / A 4.58)▬ Holding steady0.82hittability
Tyler Holton • LHP (DET)
DET @ HOU | vs HOU
1/4 W–L • 4.02 ERA • 27 Ks • 1.44 WHIP
1.1 HR/9 • 12% Barrel • 19% FB • 20% K • 4.02 ERA (H 3.29 / A 4.58)
▬ Holding steady
0.82
hittability
Last 3 games · IP / pitches / HR
▬ Holding steady No big change in his home-run risk lately.
06/13 1.0 IP · 6 P0 HR
06/11 1.2 IP · 25 P0 HR
06/09 0.1 IP · 16 P0 HR
Pitches to target · go-deep pitches
The pitches he's given up the most homers on — and the bats most likely to punish them.
vs lefty batsno clear target
Most likely to capitalize: Alvarez 29%
vs righty batschange · cutter
Most likely to capitalize: Walker 23%, Smith 19%, Peña 15%
HR hittability vs a league-average hitter · longer + greener = easier to take deep
vs LHB · 0.7 HR/9 · 0 HR in 62 PA
vs RHB · 1.5 HR/9 · 4 HR in 82 PA
Pitch mix · stuff · HR rating · swing-and-miss · contact
Splits · home/away & batter hand
| HR/9 | HR | Barrel | FB% | K% | ERA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.32 | 2 | — | — | 19% | 3.29 |
| Away | 1.02 | 2 | — | — | 21% | 4.58 |
| vs LHB | 0.68 | 0 | 12% | 20% | 24% | — |
| vs RHB | 1.53 | 4 | 14% | 21% | 18% | — |
HR = home runs allowed (season-to-date). ERA isn’t reported by batter hand, and barrel/FB% aren’t available by home/away — those cells show —.
Pitcher summary · vs LHB
Tyler Holton carries a 1.10 HR/9.
Jacob Waguespack • RHP (DET)DET @ HOU | vs HOU0/0 W–L • 0.00 ERA • 1 Ks • 2.00 WHIP0.9 HR/9 • 13% Barrel • 24% FB • 23% K • 0.00 ERA (A 0.00)▬ Holding steady0.80hittability
Jacob Waguespack • RHP (DET)
DET @ HOU | vs HOU
0/0 W–L • 0.00 ERA • 1 Ks • 2.00 WHIP
0.9 HR/9 • 13% Barrel • 24% FB • 23% K • 0.00 ERA (A 0.00)
▬ Holding steady
0.80
hittability
Last 3 games · IP / pitches / HR
▬ Holding steady No big change in his home-run risk lately.
06/12 1.0 IP · 20 P0 HR
Not enough data for this view.
HR hittability vs a league-average hitter · longer + greener = easier to take deep
vs LHB · 1.0 HR/9 · 0 HR in 12 PA
vs RHB · 1.1 HR/9 · 0 HR in 6 PA
Pitch mix · stuff · HR rating · swing-and-miss · contact
Splits · home/away & batter hand
| HR/9 | HR | Barrel | FB% | K% | ERA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away | 0.00 | 0 | — | — | 20% | 0.00 |
| vs LHB | 1.04 | 0 | 13% | 23% | 24% | — |
| vs RHB | 1.12 | 0 | 14% | 25% | 21% | — |
HR = home runs allowed (season-to-date). ERA isn’t reported by batter hand, and barrel/FB% aren’t available by home/away — those cells show —.
Pitcher summary · vs LHB
Jacob Waguespack carries a 0.92 HR/9.
Drew Anderson • RHP (DET)DET @ HOU | vs HOU2/3 W–L • 3.92 ERA • 53 Ks (Tied–93rd) • 1.28 WHIP1.1 HR/9 • 14% Barrel • 20% FB • 28% K • 3.92 ERA (H 1.90 / A 6.30)▬ Holding steady0.71hittability
Drew Anderson • RHP (DET)
DET @ HOU | vs HOU
2/3 W–L • 3.92 ERA • 53 Ks (Tied–93rd) • 1.28 WHIP
1.1 HR/9 • 14% Barrel • 20% FB • 28% K • 3.92 ERA (H 1.90 / A 6.30)
▬ Holding steady
0.71
hittability
Last 3 games · IP / pitches / HR
▬ Holding steady No big change in his home-run risk lately.
06/12 1.0 IP · 21 P0 HR
06/09 0.2 IP · 17 P0 HR
06/07 1.0 IP · 16 P0 HR
Pitches to target · go-deep pitches
The pitches he's given up the most homers on — and the bats most likely to punish them.
vs lefty batsno clear target
Most likely to capitalize: Alvarez 29%
vs righty batschange
Most likely to capitalize: Walker 23%, Smith 19%, Peña 15%
HR hittability vs a league-average hitter · longer + greener = easier to take deep
vs LHB · 1.1 HR/9 · 3 HR in 114 PA
vs RHB · 1.1 HR/9 · 3 HR in 104 PA
Pitch mix · stuff · HR rating · swing-and-miss · contact
Splits · home/away & batter hand
| HR/9 | HR | Barrel | FB% | K% | ERA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 0.76 | 2 | — | — | 27% | 1.90 |
| Away | 1.80 | 4 | — | — | 30% | 6.30 |
| vs LHB | 1.08 | 3 | 11% | 22% | 28% | — |
| vs RHB | 1.14 | 3 | 17% | 21% | 27% | — |
HR = home runs allowed (season-to-date). ERA isn’t reported by batter hand, and barrel/FB% aren’t available by home/away — those cells show —.
Pitcher summary · vs LHB
Drew Anderson carries a 1.08 HR/9. Lefties have taken him deep 3 of 6 times (1.2 HR/9 to LHB). He owns a 6.30 ERA on the road.
Will Vest • RHP (DET)DET @ HOU | vs HOU2/4 W–L • 6.53 ERA • 23 Ks • 1.45 WHIP0.9 HR/9 • 11% Barrel • 23% FB • 24% K • 6.53 ERA (H 6.75 / A 6.35)◐ Homer-prone on the year, quieter last 30.59hittability
Will Vest • RHP (DET)
DET @ HOU | vs HOU
2/4 W–L • 6.53 ERA • 23 Ks • 1.45 WHIP
0.9 HR/9 • 11% Barrel • 23% FB • 24% K • 6.53 ERA (H 6.75 / A 6.35)
◐ Homer-prone on the year, quieter last 3
0.59
hittability
Last 3 games · IP / pitches / HR
◐ Homer-prone on the year, quieter last 3 Homer-prone over the full season — the quiet recent stretch is a small sample the model discounts.
06/07 1.0 IP · 10 P0 HR
06/05 1.0 IP · 18 P0 HR
06/01 1.2 IP · 40 P0 HR
Pitches to target · go-deep pitches
The pitches he's given up the most homers on — and the bats most likely to punish them.
vs lefty batsno clear target
Most likely to capitalize: Alvarez 29%
vs righty bats4-seam
Most likely to capitalize: Walker 23%, Smith 19%, Peña 15%
HR hittability vs a league-average hitter · longer + greener = easier to take deep
vs LHB · 0.7 HR/9 · 0 HR in 59 PA
vs RHB · 1.4 HR/9 · 2 HR in 46 PA
Pitch mix · stuff · HR rating · swing-and-miss · contact
Splits · home/away & batter hand
| HR/9 | HR | Barrel | FB% | K% | ERA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 0.96 | 1 | — | — | 29% | 6.75 |
| Away | 0.79 | 1 | — | — | 22% | 6.35 |
| vs LHB | 0.69 | 0 | 12% | 24% | 25% | — |
| vs RHB | 1.36 | 2 | 13% | 22% | 21% | — |
HR = home runs allowed (season-to-date). ERA isn’t reported by batter hand, and barrel/FB% aren’t available by home/away — those cells show —.
Pitcher summary · vs LHB
Will Vest carries a 0.90 HR/9. He owns a 6.35 ERA on the road.
Pick who he’ll face
Matchup vs Drew AndersonC
Arms like Drew Anderson
Most similar arsenals (velocity, movement, mix): Mike Burrows, Peyton Pallette, Burch Smith, Mick Abel, Gordon Graceffo, Jack Leiter.
vs arms like this (since 2025), 1 HR in 12 PA (8.3% · league ~3%).
Matchup vs Kenley JansenA · ×1.50
Arms like Kenley Jansen
Most similar arsenals (velocity, movement, mix): Graham Ashcraft, Phil Maton, Chad Patrick, Aaron Civale, Camilo Doval, Zach Agnos.
Matchup vs Enmanuel De JesusA · ×1.52
Arms like Enmanuel De Jesus
Most similar arsenals (velocity, movement, mix): Eduardo Rodriguez, Brock Burke, Jalen Beeks, José Suarez, Jacob Latz, Trevor Rogers.
vs arms like this (since 2025), 2 HR in 22 PA (9.1% · league ~3%).
Matchup vs Kyle FinneganA · ×1.43
Arms like Kyle Finnegan
Most similar arsenals (velocity, movement, mix): Kevin Gausman, Cade Smith, Ryne Stanek, Gus Varland, Chase Silseth, Michael Petersen.
vs arms like this (since 2025), 0 HR in 17 PA (0.0% · league ~3%).
Matchup vs Drew SommersA · ×1.42
Matchup vs Tyler HoltonA · ×1.50
Arms like Tyler Holton
Most similar arsenals (velocity, movement, mix): Tyler Alexander, Foster Griffin, Brandon Williamson, Max Fried, Anthony Kay, Patrick Corbin.
vs arms like this (since 2025), 1 HR in 14 PA (7.1% · league ~3%).
Matchup vs Jacob WaguespackA · ×1.57
Matchup vs Drew AndersonA · ×1.62
Arms like Drew Anderson
Most similar arsenals (velocity, movement, mix): Mike Burrows, Peyton Pallette, Burch Smith, Mick Abel, Gordon Graceffo, Jack Leiter.
vs arms like this (since 2025), 1 HR in 12 PA (8.3% · league ~3%).
Matchup vs Will VestA · ×1.50
Arms like Will Vest
Most similar arsenals (velocity, movement, mix): Juan Morillo, Jonathan Bowlan, Nick Mears, Brad Keller, Bryan Abreu, Luis Gil.
vs arms like this (since 2025), 1 HR in 15 PA (6.7% · league ~3%).
Byron Buxton RMIN AWAY vs MacKenzie Gore L · TEXwind 1.00park 1.04brl 20%recent 12% HOT29%MatchupA+246
Byron Buxton R
MIN AWAY vs MacKenzie Gore L · TEX
wind 1.00park 1.04brl 20%recent 12% HOT
29%
MatchupA
+246
Byron Buxton R
MIN AWAY vs MacKenzie Gore L · TEX
wind 1.00park 1.04brl 20%recent 12% HOT
29%
Matchup summary · vs MacKenzie Gore
Batter Summary 📈 Trending up
Buxton has 3 of his 22 HRs off LHP, 48% hard-hit that side. 9 of his 22 HRs have come on the road, slugging .492 there. Buxton has been hot against arms like this lately.
Form Last ~3 weeks (recency-weighted): .411 xwOBAcon (lg .372), 12% well-hit (lg 14%), 48% hard-hit · 2 HR in 44 PA. Recent contact quality is beating league — the rating catches the heat before the HR totals show it.
Ranking Reasoning
Strong HR spot.
Big power vs LHP (18% barrels), hot against this kind of arsenal and holds power in two-strike counts.
Big power vs LHP (18% barrels), hot against this kind of arsenal and holds power in two-strike counts.
🏟️ Homered here 3× at this park (since ’25)
⚾ vs Gore (career): 0/2 AB | 0 HR | 1K
Pitch by Pitch
Pitch-by-pitch · Gore throws / Buxton hits
Stuff & usage = the arm’s; whiff / contact / EV / barrel / air-ground / HR = Buxton’s 2026 vs LHP · green = bat’s edge
4-SeamSt 5050% used
Whiff
18%
Contact
82%
EV
97
Barrel
13%
Air/Gnd
40/7
HR
1
15 BBE
CurveSt 2327% used
Whiff
17%
Contact
83%
EV
85
Barrel
0%
Air/Gnd
20/20
HR
0
5 BBE
ChangeSt 8215% used
Whiff
36%
Contact
64%
EV
90
Barrel
0%
Air/Gnd
7/43
HR
0
14 BBE
CutterSt 198% used
Whiff
17%
Contact
83%
EV
94
Barrel
0%
Air/Gnd
0/25
HR
0
4 BBE
Pitch-by-pitch · Quantrill throws / Buxton hits
Stuff & usage = the arm’s; whiff / contact / EV / barrel / air-ground / HR = Buxton’s 2026 vs RHP · green = bat’s edge
Sinker—29% used
Whiff
22%
Contact
78%
EV
88
Barrel
6%
Air/Gnd
27/33
HR
2
33 BBE
Cutter—19% used
Whiff
31%
Contact
69%
EV
90
Barrel
15%
Air/Gnd
69/8
HR
4
13 BBE
Splitter—15% used
Whiff
36%
Contact
64%
EV
—
Barrel
—
Air/Gnd
—
HR
—
thin 2026
4-Seam—14% used
Whiff
27%
Contact
73%
EV
95
Barrel
10%
Air/Gnd
47/20
HR
5
30 BBE
Slider—13% used
Whiff
31%
Contact
69%
EV
85
Barrel
6%
Air/Gnd
28/44
HR
3
18 BBE
Curve—11% used
Whiff
7%
Contact
93%
EV
98
Barrel
0%
Air/Gnd
57/43
HR
1
7 BBE
Pitch-by-pitch · Winn throws / Buxton hits
Stuff & usage = the arm’s; whiff / contact / EV / barrel / air-ground / HR = Buxton’s 2026 vs RHP · green = bat’s edge
4-Seam—26% used
Whiff
27%
Contact
73%
EV
95
Barrel
10%
Air/Gnd
47/20
HR
5
30 BBE
Cutter—24% used
Whiff
31%
Contact
69%
EV
90
Barrel
15%
Air/Gnd
69/8
HR
4
13 BBE
Slider—22% used
Whiff
31%
Contact
69%
EV
85
Barrel
6%
Air/Gnd
28/44
HR
3
18 BBE
Sinker—21% used
Whiff
22%
Contact
78%
EV
88
Barrel
6%
Air/Gnd
27/33
HR
2
33 BBE
Splitter—7% used
Whiff
36%
Contact
64%
EV
—
Barrel
—
Air/Gnd
—
HR
—
thin 2026
Pitch-by-pitch · Gray throws / Buxton hits
Stuff & usage = the arm’s; whiff / contact / EV / barrel / air-ground / HR = Buxton’s 2026 vs RHP · green = bat’s edge
4-Seam—42% used
Whiff
27%
Contact
73%
EV
95
Barrel
10%
Air/Gnd
47/20
HR
5
30 BBE
Change—34% used
Whiff
46%
Contact
54%
EV
82
Barrel
0%
Air/Gnd
0/25
HR
0
4 BBE
Slider—25% used
Whiff
31%
Contact
69%
EV
85
Barrel
6%
Air/Gnd
28/44
HR
3
18 BBE
Pitch-by-pitch · Ross throws / Buxton hits
Stuff & usage = the arm’s; whiff / contact / EV / barrel / air-ground / HR = Buxton’s 2026 vs RHP · green = bat’s edge
Sinker—37% used
Whiff
22%
Contact
78%
EV
88
Barrel
6%
Air/Gnd
27/33
HR
2
33 BBE
Slider—29% used
Whiff
31%
Contact
69%
EV
85
Barrel
6%
Air/Gnd
28/44
HR
3
18 BBE
4-Seam—28% used
Whiff
27%
Contact
73%
EV
95
Barrel
10%
Air/Gnd
47/20
HR
5
30 BBE
Curve—4% used
Whiff
7%
Contact
93%
EV
98
Barrel
0%
Air/Gnd
57/43
HR
1
7 BBE
Pitch-by-pitch · Alexander throws / Buxton hits
Stuff & usage = the arm’s; whiff / contact / EV / barrel / air-ground / HR = Buxton’s 2026 vs LHP · green = bat’s edge
Change—29% used
Whiff
36%
Contact
64%
EV
90
Barrel
0%
Air/Gnd
7/43
HR
0
14 BBE
Cutter—24% used
Whiff
17%
Contact
83%
EV
94
Barrel
0%
Air/Gnd
0/25
HR
0
4 BBE
4-Seam—23% used
Whiff
18%
Contact
82%
EV
97
Barrel
13%
Air/Gnd
40/7
HR
1
15 BBE
Sinker—13% used
Whiff
31%
Contact
69%
EV
98
Barrel
40%
Air/Gnd
40/0
HR
1
5 BBE
Sweeper—11% used
Whiff
50%
Contact
50%
EV
—
Barrel
—
Air/Gnd
—
HR
—
thin 2026
Pitch-by-pitch · Junis throws / Buxton hits
Stuff & usage = the arm’s; whiff / contact / EV / barrel / air-ground / HR = Buxton’s 2026 vs RHP · green = bat’s edge
Slider—54% used
Whiff
31%
Contact
69%
EV
85
Barrel
6%
Air/Gnd
28/44
HR
3
18 BBE
Sinker—31% used
Whiff
22%
Contact
78%
EV
88
Barrel
6%
Air/Gnd
27/33
HR
2
33 BBE
Change—9% used
Whiff
46%
Contact
54%
EV
82
Barrel
0%
Air/Gnd
0/25
HR
0
4 BBE
4-Seam—6% used
Whiff
27%
Contact
73%
EV
95
Barrel
10%
Air/Gnd
47/20
HR
5
30 BBE
Pitch-by-pitch · Latz throws / Buxton hits
Stuff & usage = the arm’s; whiff / contact / EV / barrel / air-ground / HR = Buxton’s 2026 vs LHP · green = bat’s edge
4-Seam—49% used
Whiff
18%
Contact
82%
EV
97
Barrel
13%
Air/Gnd
40/7
HR
1
15 BBE
Change—28% used
Whiff
36%
Contact
64%
EV
90
Barrel
0%
Air/Gnd
7/43
HR
0
14 BBE
Slider—13% used
Whiff
45%
Contact
55%
EV
84
Barrel
25%
Air/Gnd
25/25
HR
1
4 BBE
Curve—10% used
Whiff
17%
Contact
83%
EV
85
Barrel
0%
Air/Gnd
20/20
HR
0
5 BBE
🎯 Target
Matchup-Fit · barrel alignment vs MacKenzie Gore’s arsenal
4-Seam 50% usedbarrels 13% · allows 4% · 1 HR
Curve 27% usedbarrels 0% · allows 3%
Change 15% usedbarrels 0% · allows 0%
Cutter 8% usedbarrels 0% · allows 0%
Air / Park
Pulls 30% in the air; pull side LF — park ×0.87 → park+wind fights his pull power.
Recent form · last 5
Barrel 7% · EV 95 · 3 HR over his last 5.
Matchup-Fit · barrel alignment vs Cal Quantrill’s arsenal
Sinker 29% usedbarrels 6% · allows 0% · 2 HR
Cutter 19% usedbarrels 15% · allows 7% · 4 HR
Splitter 15% usedbarrels — · allows —
4-Seam 14% usedbarrels 10% · allows — · 5 HR
Slider 13% usedbarrels 6% · allows — · 3 HR
Air / Park
Pulls 30% in the air; pull side LF — park ×0.87 → park+wind fights his pull power.
Recent form · last 5
Barrel 7% · EV 95 · 3 HR over his last 5.
Matchup-Fit · barrel alignment vs Cole Winn’s arsenal
4-Seam 26% usedbarrels 10% · allows 0% · 5 HR
Cutter 24% usedbarrels 15% · allows 0% · 4 HR
Slider 22% usedbarrels 6% · allows — · 3 HR
Sinker 21% usedbarrels 6% · allows 14% · 2 HR
Splitter 7% usedbarrels — · allows —
Air / Park
Pulls 30% in the air; pull side LF — park ×0.87 → park+wind fights his pull power.
Recent form · last 5
Barrel 7% · EV 95 · 3 HR over his last 5.
Matchup-Fit · barrel alignment vs Peyton Gray’s arsenal
4-Seam 42% usedbarrels 10% · allows 0% · 5 HR
Change 34% usedbarrels 0% · allows 10%
Slider 25% usedbarrels 6% · allows 0% · 3 HR
Air / Park
Pulls 30% in the air; pull side LF — park ×0.87 → park+wind fights his pull power.
Recent form · last 5
Barrel 7% · EV 95 · 3 HR over his last 5.
Matchup-Fit · barrel alignment vs Joe Ross’s arsenal
Sinker 37% usedbarrels 6% · allows 0% · 2 HR
Slider 29% usedbarrels 6% · allows 14% · 3 HR
4-Seam 28% usedbarrels 10% · allows — · 5 HR
Air / Park
Pulls 30% in the air; pull side LF — park ×0.87 → park+wind fights his pull power.
Recent form · last 5
Barrel 7% · EV 95 · 3 HR over his last 5.
Matchup-Fit · barrel alignment vs Tyler Alexander’s arsenal
Change 29% usedbarrels 0% · allows 4%
Cutter 24% usedbarrels 0% · allows 0%
4-Seam 23% usedbarrels 13% · allows — · 1 HR
Sinker 13% usedbarrels 40% · allows 0% · 1 HR
Sweeper 11% usedbarrels — · allows —
Air / Park
Pulls 30% in the air; pull side LF — park ×0.87 → park+wind fights his pull power.
Recent form · last 5
Barrel 7% · EV 95 · 3 HR over his last 5.
Matchup-Fit · barrel alignment vs Jakob Junis’s arsenal
Slider 54% usedbarrels 6% · allows 5% · 3 HR
Sinker 31% usedbarrels 6% · allows 12% · 2 HR
Change 9% usedbarrels 0% · allows —
4-Seam 6% usedbarrels 10% · allows — · 5 HR
Air / Park
Pulls 30% in the air; pull side LF — park ×0.87 → park+wind fights his pull power.
Recent form · last 5
Barrel 7% · EV 95 · 3 HR over his last 5.
Not enough arsenal data for this arm.
Matchup-Fit · barrel alignment vs Jacob Latz’s arsenal
4-Seam 49% usedbarrels 13% · allows 8% · 1 HR
Change 28% usedbarrels 0% · allows 0%
Slider 13% usedbarrels 25% · allows — · 1 HR
Curve 10% usedbarrels 0% · allows —
Air / Park
Pulls 30% in the air; pull side LF — park ×0.87 → park+wind fights his pull power.
Recent form · last 5
Barrel 7% · EV 95 · 3 HR over his last 5.
Matchup Lab
Loading…
Batter Stats
Last 5 games · H/AB · K · GB · FB · barrel · EV · HR/FB · HR
| H/AB | K | GB | FB | BRL | EV | HR/FB | HR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5G | 10/19 | 4 | 40% | 13% | 7% | 95 | 150% | 3 |
| 06/14 | 3/5 | 2 | 33% | 0% | 0% | 108 | — | 0 |
| 06/13 | 2/4 | 2 | 50% | 50% | 50% | 84 | 100% | 1 |
| 06/12 | 3/3 | 0 | 33% | 0% | 0% | 105 | — | 1 |
| 06/11 | 0/3 | 0 | 33% | 33% | 0% | 85 | 0% | 0 |
| 06/10 | 2/4 | 0 | 50% | 0% | 0% | 92 | — | 1 |
Swing & Bat Tracking (515 swings)
bat tracking
Bat speed74.0 mph
Swing length8.0 ft
Attack angle14.8°
contact
swing timing
Early24%
On-time65%
Late11%
miss profile
Over19%
Under16%
Tied-up7%
Centered67%
Flailed26%
Batter power & contact · longer + greener = more HR-likely
vs LHP · 5 HR in 82 PA
vs RHP · 19 HR in 218 PA
Matchup strength · longer + greener = more HR-favorable
matchup strength
supporting
Home / Away HR splits · season-to-date
Home HOME13 HR / 137 PA · 9.5%
Home · .713 SLG
Away AWAY9 HR / 137 PA · 6.6%
Away · .492 SLG
Park fit · spray vs this yard
Pulls 30% of contact in the air; his pull side is LF here — HR factor ×0.87 → park fights his pull power.
Pitcher
MacKenzie Gore • LHP (TEX)MIN @ TEX | vs MIN4/5 W–L (Tied–59th) • 4.18 ERA (47th) • 76 Ks (Tied–35th) • 1.35 WHIP (57th)0.6 HR/9 • 14% Barrel • 22% FB • 23% K • 4.18 ERA (H 2.08 / A 5.75)◐ Homer-prone on the year, quieter last 30.93hittability
MacKenzie Gore • LHP (TEX)
MIN @ TEX | vs MIN
4/5 W–L (Tied–59th) • 4.18 ERA (47th) • 76 Ks (Tied–35th) • 1.35 WHIP (57th)
0.6 HR/9 • 14% Barrel • 22% FB • 23% K • 4.18 ERA (H 2.08 / A 5.75)
◐ Homer-prone on the year, quieter last 3
0.93
hittability
Last 3 starts · IP / pitches / HR
◐ Homer-prone on the year, quieter last 3 Homer-prone over the full season — the quiet recent stretch is a small sample the model discounts.
06/10 5.0 IP · 87 P0 HR
06/03 4.2 IP · 100 P0 HR
05/29 6.1 IP · 99 P0 HR
Pitches to target · go-deep pitches
The pitches he's given up the most homers on — and the bats most likely to punish them.
vs lefty batsno clear target
Most likely to capitalize: Clemens 20%
vs righty batscutter
Most likely to capitalize: Buxton 29%, Bell 12%, Lewis 10%
HR hittability vs a league-average hitter · longer + greener = easier to take deep
vs LHB · 0.6 HR/9 · 0 HR in 91 PA
vs RHB · 0.8 HR/9 · 5 HR in 257 PA
Pitch mix · stuff · HR rating · swing-and-miss · contact
spin 11:00
spin 5:02
spin 3:27
spin 10:08
spin 11:27
spin 11:00
spin 11:00
spin 5:02
spin 3:27
spin 10:08
spin 11:27
spin 11:00
spin 11:00
spin 5:02
spin 3:27
spin 10:08
spin 11:27
spin 11:00
Where he’s hittable · xSLG allowed by zone (vs RHB)
Green = he gives up slug there. Tap a band → out/mid/in cells → each pitch’s xSLG + a cyan contact-allowed bar. Cell splits use 2025–26; display only.
Splits · home/away & batter hand
| HR/9 | HR | Barrel | FB% | K% | ERA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 0.89 | 3 | — | — | 28% | 2.08 |
| Away | 0.66 | 3 | — | — | 23% | 5.75 |
| vs LHB | 0.56 | 0 | 13% | 20% | 21% | — |
| vs RHB | 0.85 | 5 | 14% | 24% | 23% | — |
HR = home runs allowed (season-to-date). ERA isn’t reported by batter hand, and barrel/FB% aren’t available by home/away — those cells show —.
Pitcher summary · vs RHB
MacKenzie Gore carries a 0.64 HR/9. Righties have taken him deep 5 of 5 times (0.8 HR/9 to RHB). TEX is a tough HR park for RH hitters (23rd).
Cal Quantrill • RHP (TEX)MIN @ TEX | vs MIN3/0 W–L • 2.36 ERA • 18 Ks • 1.09 WHIP1.0 HR/9 • 13% Barrel • 24% FB • 17% K • 2.36 ERA (H 2.31 / A 2.40)▲ Easier to take deep lately1.17hittability
Cal Quantrill • RHP (TEX)
MIN @ TEX | vs MIN
3/0 W–L • 2.36 ERA • 18 Ks • 1.09 WHIP
1.0 HR/9 • 13% Barrel • 24% FB • 17% K • 2.36 ERA (H 2.31 / A 2.40)
▲ Easier to take deep lately
1.17
hittability
Last 3 games · IP / pitches / HR
▲ Easier to take deep lately This pitcher is trending toward giving up home runs.
06/12 2.0 IP · 38 P1 HR
06/06 2.1 IP · 39 P0 HR
06/03 0.2 IP · 7 P0 HR
Pitches to target · go-deep pitches
The pitches he's given up the most homers on — and the bats most likely to punish them.
vs lefty bats4-seam
Most likely to capitalize: Clemens 20%, Bell 12%
vs righty batsno clear target
Most likely to capitalize: Buxton 29%, Lewis 10%, Kreidler 6%
HR hittability vs a league-average hitter · longer + greener = easier to take deep
vs LHB · 0.9 HR/9 · 1 HR in 62 PA
vs RHB · 1.2 HR/9 · 2 HR in 64 PA
Pitch mix · stuff · HR rating · swing-and-miss · contact
Splits · home/away & batter hand
| HR/9 | HR | Barrel | FB% | K% | ERA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 0.77 | 1 | — | — | 16% | 2.31 |
| Away | 0.60 | 1 | — | — | 17% | 2.40 |
| vs LHB | 0.94 | 1 | 17% | 26% | 21% | — |
| vs RHB | 1.19 | 2 | 10% | 21% | 15% | — |
HR = home runs allowed (season-to-date). ERA isn’t reported by batter hand, and barrel/FB% aren’t available by home/away — those cells show —.
Pitcher summary · vs RHB
Cal Quantrill carries a 1.00 HR/9 and gave up 1 in his last outing. TEX is a tough HR park for RH hitters (23rd).
Cole Winn • RHP (TEX)MIN @ TEX | vs MIN2/2 W–L • 5.82 ERA • 25 Ks • 1.48 WHIP1.1 HR/9 • 15% Barrel • 25% FB • 24% K • 5.82 ERA (H 4.66 / A 6.75)◐ Homer-prone on the year, quieter last 31.00hittability
Cole Winn • RHP (TEX)
MIN @ TEX | vs MIN
2/2 W–L • 5.82 ERA • 25 Ks • 1.48 WHIP
1.1 HR/9 • 15% Barrel • 25% FB • 24% K • 5.82 ERA (H 4.66 / A 6.75)
◐ Homer-prone on the year, quieter last 3
1.00
hittability
Last 3 games · IP / pitches / HR
◐ Homer-prone on the year, quieter last 3 Homer-prone over the full season — the quiet recent stretch is a small sample the model discounts.
06/13 0.2 IP · 18 P0 HR
06/11 1.0 IP · 12 P0 HR
06/09 0.2 IP · 8 P0 HR
Pitches to target · go-deep pitches
The pitches he's given up the most homers on — and the bats most likely to punish them.
vs lefty batsno clear target
Most likely to capitalize: Clemens 20%, Bell 12%
vs righty bats4-seam
Most likely to capitalize: Buxton 29%, Lewis 10%, Kreidler 6%
HR hittability vs a league-average hitter · longer + greener = easier to take deep
vs LHB · 0.8 HR/9 · 0 HR in 47 PA
vs RHB · 1.4 HR/9 · 3 HR in 66 PA
Pitch mix · stuff · HR rating · swing-and-miss · contact
Splits · home/away & batter hand
| HR/9 | HR | Barrel | FB% | K% | ERA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 0.93 | 1 | — | — | 26% | 4.66 |
| Away | 1.50 | 2 | — | — | 25% | 6.75 |
| vs LHB | 0.76 | 0 | 14% | 23% | 20% | — |
| vs RHB | 1.44 | 3 | 15% | 25% | 26% | — |
HR = home runs allowed (season-to-date). ERA isn’t reported by batter hand, and barrel/FB% aren’t available by home/away — those cells show —.
Pitcher summary · vs RHB
Cole Winn carries a 1.08 HR/9. TEX is a tough HR park for RH hitters (23rd).
Peyton Gray • RHP (TEX)MIN @ TEX | vs MIN2/0 W–L • 4.03 ERA • 21 Ks • 1.25 WHIP1.1 HR/9 • 14% Barrel • 22% FB • 22% K • 4.03 ERA (H 1.98 / A 7.27)▲ Easier to take deep lately0.96hittability
Peyton Gray • RHP (TEX)
MIN @ TEX | vs MIN
2/0 W–L • 4.03 ERA • 21 Ks • 1.25 WHIP
1.1 HR/9 • 14% Barrel • 22% FB • 22% K • 4.03 ERA (H 1.98 / A 7.27)
▲ Easier to take deep lately
0.96
hittability
Last 3 games · IP / pitches / HR
▲ Easier to take deep lately This pitcher is trending toward giving up home runs.
06/13 1.0 IP · 19 P1 HR
06/10 1.0 IP · 20 P0 HR
06/07 1.0 IP · 19 P0 HR
Pitches to target · go-deep pitches
The pitches he's given up the most homers on — and the bats most likely to punish them.
vs lefty batsno clear target
Most likely to capitalize: Clemens 20%, Bell 12%
vs righty batschange
Most likely to capitalize: Buxton 29%, Lewis 10%, Kreidler 6%
HR hittability vs a league-average hitter · longer + greener = easier to take deep
vs LHB · 1.0 HR/9 · 1 HR in 51 PA
vs RHB · 1.3 HR/9 · 2 HR in 56 PA
Pitch mix · stuff · HR rating · swing-and-miss · contact
Splits · home/away & batter hand
| HR/9 | HR | Barrel | FB% | K% | ERA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 0.66 | 1 | — | — | 22% | 1.98 |
| Away | 2.08 | 2 | — | — | 20% | 7.27 |
| vs LHB | 1.02 | 1 | 14% | 21% | 24% | — |
| vs RHB | 1.26 | 2 | 14% | 24% | 20% | — |
HR = home runs allowed (season-to-date). ERA isn’t reported by batter hand, and barrel/FB% aren’t available by home/away — those cells show —.
Pitcher summary · vs RHB
Peyton Gray carries a 1.11 HR/9 and gave up 1 in his last outing. TEX is a tough HR park for RH hitters (23rd).
Joe Ross • RHP (TEX)MIN @ TEX | vs MIN0/0 W–L • 19.64 ERA • 2 Ks • 3.00 WHIP1.5 HR/9 • 17% Barrel • 20% FB • 16% K • 19.64 ERA (H 27.00 / A 0.00)▬ Holding steady0.93hittability
Joe Ross • RHP (TEX)
MIN @ TEX | vs MIN
0/0 W–L • 19.64 ERA • 2 Ks • 3.00 WHIP
1.5 HR/9 • 17% Barrel • 20% FB • 16% K • 19.64 ERA (H 27.00 / A 0.00)
▬ Holding steady
0.93
hittability
Last 3 games · IP / pitches / HR
▬ Holding steady No big change in his home-run risk lately.
04/02 2.0 IP · 52 P1 HR
03/30 0.2 IP · 26 P0 HR
03/28 1.0 IP · 14 P0 HR
Pitches to target · go-deep pitches
The pitches he's given up the most homers on — and the bats most likely to punish them.
vs lefty batsno clear target
Most likely to capitalize: Clemens 20%, Bell 12%
vs righty batsslider
Most likely to capitalize: Buxton 29%, Lewis 10%, Kreidler 6%
HR hittability vs a league-average hitter · longer + greener = easier to take deep
vs LHB · 1.4 HR/9 · 1 HR in 18 PA
vs RHB · 1.4 HR/9 · 1 HR in 19 PA
Pitch mix · stuff · HR rating · swing-and-miss · contact
Splits · home/away & batter hand
| HR/9 | HR | Barrel | FB% | K% | ERA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.38 | 1 | — | — | 11% | 27.00 |
| Away | 0.00 | 0 | — | — | 0% | 0.00 |
| vs LHB | 1.37 | 1 | 14% | 22% | 19% | — |
| vs RHB | 1.35 | 1 | 17% | 22% | 17% | — |
HR = home runs allowed (season-to-date). ERA isn’t reported by batter hand, and barrel/FB% aren’t available by home/away — those cells show —.
Pitcher summary · vs RHB
Joe Ross carries a 1.53 HR/9 and gave up 1 in his last outing. He owns a 27.00 ERA at home. TEX is a tough HR park for RH hitters (23rd).
Tyler Alexander • LHP (TEX)MIN @ TEX | vs MIN1/1 W–L • 3.21 ERA • 22 Ks • 1.39 WHIP0.7 HR/9 • 8% Barrel • 20% FB • 18% K • 3.21 ERA (H 3.38 / A 3.12)▬ Holding steady0.91hittability
Tyler Alexander • LHP (TEX)
MIN @ TEX | vs MIN
1/1 W–L • 3.21 ERA • 22 Ks • 1.39 WHIP
0.7 HR/9 • 8% Barrel • 20% FB • 18% K • 3.21 ERA (H 3.38 / A 3.12)
▬ Holding steady
0.91
hittability
Last 3 games · IP / pitches / HR
▬ Holding steady No big change in his home-run risk lately.
06/10 1.0 IP · 11 P0 HR
06/07 1.0 IP · 8 P0 HR
06/01 1.0 IP · 12 P0 HR
Pitches to target · go-deep pitches
The pitches he's given up the most homers on — and the bats most likely to punish them.
vs lefty batssweeper
Most likely to capitalize: Clemens 20%
vs righty batsno clear target
Most likely to capitalize: Buxton 29%, Bell 12%, Lewis 10%
HR hittability vs a league-average hitter · longer + greener = easier to take deep
vs LHB · 0.9 HR/9 · 1 HR in 69 PA
vs RHB · 0.8 HR/9 · 1 HR in 83 PA
Pitch mix · stuff · HR rating · swing-and-miss · contact
Splits · home/away & batter hand
| HR/9 | HR | Barrel | FB% | K% | ERA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 0.84 | 1 | — | — | 18% | 3.38 |
| Away | 0.52 | 1 | — | — | 18% | 3.12 |
| vs LHB | 0.90 | 1 | 10% | 21% | 14% | — |
| vs RHB | 0.82 | 1 | 10% | 22% | 22% | — |
HR = home runs allowed (season-to-date). ERA isn’t reported by batter hand, and barrel/FB% aren’t available by home/away — those cells show —.
Pitcher summary · vs RHB
Tyler Alexander carries a 0.70 HR/9. TEX is a tough HR park for RH hitters (23rd).
Jakob Junis • RHP (TEX)MIN @ TEX | vs MIN1/1 W–L • 1.84 ERA • 21 Ks • 0.82 WHIP0.4 HR/9 • 13% Barrel • 23% FB • 21% K • 1.84 ERA (H 1.46 / A 2.12)▬ Holding steady0.84hittability
Jakob Junis • RHP (TEX)
MIN @ TEX | vs MIN
1/1 W–L • 1.84 ERA • 21 Ks • 0.82 WHIP
0.4 HR/9 • 13% Barrel • 23% FB • 21% K • 1.84 ERA (H 1.46 / A 2.12)
▬ Holding steady
0.84
hittability
Last 3 games · IP / pitches / HR
▬ Holding steady No big change in his home-run risk lately.
06/14 0.2 IP · 16 P0 HR
06/10 2.0 IP · 21 P0 HR
06/02 1.0 IP · 18 P0 HR
Not enough data for this view.
HR hittability vs a league-average hitter · longer + greener = easier to take deep
vs LHB · 0.7 HR/9 · 0 HR in 59 PA
vs RHB · 0.7 HR/9 · 0 HR in 62 PA
Pitch mix · stuff · HR rating · swing-and-miss · contact
Splits · home/away & batter hand
| HR/9 | HR | Barrel | FB% | K% | ERA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 0.00 | 0 | — | — | 12% | 1.46 |
| Away | 0.00 | 0 | — | — | 23% | 2.12 |
| vs LHB | 0.69 | 0 | 12% | 22% | 19% | — |
| vs RHB | 0.68 | 0 | 14% | 24% | 23% | — |
HR = home runs allowed (season-to-date). ERA isn’t reported by batter hand, and barrel/FB% aren’t available by home/away — those cells show —.
Pitcher summary · vs RHB
Jakob Junis carries a 0.40 HR/9. TEX is a tough HR park for RH hitters (23rd).
Robby Ahlstrom • LHP (TEX)MIN @ TEX | vs MIN0/0 W–L • 0.00 ERA • 4 Ks • 0.83 WHIP0.9 HR/9 • 10% Barrel • 18% FB • 22% K • 0.00 ERA (H 0.00 / A 0.00)▬ Holding steady0.81hittability
Robby Ahlstrom • LHP (TEX)
MIN @ TEX | vs MIN
0/0 W–L • 0.00 ERA • 4 Ks • 0.83 WHIP
0.9 HR/9 • 10% Barrel • 18% FB • 22% K • 0.00 ERA (H 0.00 / A 0.00)
▬ Holding steady
0.81
hittability
Last 3 games · IP / pitches / HR
▬ Holding steady No big change in his home-run risk lately.
06/13 0.1 IP · 19 P0 HR
06/11 1.1 IP · 14 P0 HR
06/09 1.0 IP · 14 P0 HR
Not enough data for this view.
HR hittability vs a league-average hitter · longer + greener = easier to take deep
vs LHB · 1.0 HR/9 · 0 HR in 15 PA
vs RHB · 1.1 HR/9 · 0 HR in 9 PA
Pitch mix · stuff · HR rating · swing-and-miss · contact
Splits · home/away & batter hand
| HR/9 | HR | Barrel | FB% | K% | ERA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 0.00 | 0 | — | — | 0% | 0.00 |
| Away | 0.00 | 0 | — | — | 27% | 0.00 |
| vs LHB | 1.01 | 0 | 12% | 21% | 21% | — |
| vs RHB | 1.08 | 0 | 13% | 21% | 22% | — |
HR = home runs allowed (season-to-date). ERA isn’t reported by batter hand, and barrel/FB% aren’t available by home/away — those cells show —.
Pitcher summary · vs RHB
Robby Ahlstrom carries a 0.86 HR/9. TEX is a tough HR park for RH hitters (23rd).
Jacob Latz • LHP (TEX)MIN @ TEX | vs MIN2/1 W–L • 1.62 ERA • 35 Ks • 0.60 WHIP1.1 HR/9 • 9% Barrel • 24% FB • 25% K • 1.62 ERA (H 2.35 / A 1.00)▬ Holding steady0.81hittability
Jacob Latz • LHP (TEX)
MIN @ TEX | vs MIN
2/1 W–L • 1.62 ERA • 35 Ks • 0.60 WHIP
1.1 HR/9 • 9% Barrel • 24% FB • 25% K • 1.62 ERA (H 2.35 / A 1.00)
▬ Holding steady
0.81
hittability
Last 3 games · IP / pitches / HR
▬ Holding steady No big change in his home-run risk lately.
06/14 1.1 IP · 24 P0 HR
06/11 2.0 IP · 15 P0 HR
06/10 1.0 IP · 17 P0 HR
Pitches to target · go-deep pitches
The pitches he's given up the most homers on — and the bats most likely to punish them.
vs lefty batsslider
Most likely to capitalize: Clemens 20%
vs righty batsno clear target
Most likely to capitalize: Buxton 29%, Bell 12%, Lewis 10%
HR hittability vs a league-average hitter · longer + greener = easier to take deep
vs LHB · 1.2 HR/9 · 2 HR in 69 PA
vs RHB · 1.1 HR/9 · 3 HR in 110 PA
Pitch mix · stuff · HR rating · swing-and-miss · contact
Splits · home/away & batter hand
| HR/9 | HR | Barrel | FB% | K% | ERA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 0.59 | 1 | — | — | 29% | 2.35 |
| Away | 0.50 | 1 | — | — | 30% | 1.00 |
| vs LHB | 1.15 | 2 | 12% | 23% | 21% | — |
| vs RHB | 1.11 | 3 | 10% | 25% | 27% | — |
HR = home runs allowed (season-to-date). ERA isn’t reported by batter hand, and barrel/FB% aren’t available by home/away — those cells show —.
Pitcher summary · vs RHB
Jacob Latz carries a 1.10 HR/9. Righties have taken him deep 3 of 5 times (0.5 HR/9 to RHB). TEX is a tough HR park for RH hitters (23rd).
Pick who he’ll face
Matchup vs MacKenzie GoreA
Arms like MacKenzie Gore
Most similar arsenals (velocity, movement, mix): Mitchell Parker, Jacob Latz, Hogan Harris, Brock Burke, Shane McClanahan, Reid Detmers.
vs arms like this (since 2025), 1 HR in 21 PA (4.8% · league ~3%).
Matchup vs Cal QuantrillA · ×1.26
Arms like Cal Quantrill
Most similar arsenals (velocity, movement, mix): Taijuan Walker, Nick Martinez, Javier Assad, Tomoyuki Sugano, Chase Shugart, Chad Patrick.
vs arms like this (since 2025), 5 HR in 21 PA (23.8% · league ~3%).
Matchup vs Cole WinnA · ×1.30
Arms like Cole Winn
Most similar arsenals (velocity, movement, mix): Zach Agnos, Randy Vásquez, Grant Holmes, Drew Rasmussen, Zack Wheeler, Cam Schlittler.
vs arms like this (since 2025), 3 HR in 24 PA (12.5% · league ~3%).
Matchup vs Peyton GrayA · ×1.25
Arms like Peyton Gray
Most similar arsenals (velocity, movement, mix): Cole Sulser, Connor Brogdon, Bryan Baker, Tanner Gordon, Bailey Ober, Max Scherzer.
vs arms like this (since 2025), 1 HR in 21 PA (4.8% · league ~3%).
Matchup vs Joe RossA · ×1.21
Arms like Joe Ross
Most similar arsenals (velocity, movement, mix): Lucas Erceg, Luis Medina, Bryan Woo, Luis Castillo, Miles Mikolas, Kumar Rocker.
vs arms like this (since 2025), 1 HR in 32 PA (3.1% · league ~3%).
Matchup vs Tyler AlexanderA · ×1.23
Arms like Tyler Alexander
Most similar arsenals (velocity, movement, mix): Tyler Holton, Anthony Kay, Brandon Williamson, Ian Seymour, Foster Griffin, Martín Pérez.
vs arms like this (since 2025), 3 HR in 26 PA (11.5% · league ~3%).
Matchup vs Jakob JunisA · ×1.22
Arms like Jakob Junis
Most similar arsenals (velocity, movement, mix): Bryce Elder, Taylor Clarke, Jake Woodford, Jaden Hill, Stephen Kolek, Alex Lange.
vs arms like this (since 2025), 2 HR in 23 PA (8.7% · league ~3%).
Matchup vs Robby AhlstromA · ×1.22
Matchup vs Jacob LatzA · ×1.26
Arms like Jacob Latz
Most similar arsenals (velocity, movement, mix): Carlos Rodón, Robbie Ray, Andrew Abbott, Reid Detmers, Shane McClanahan, MacKenzie Gore.
vs arms like this (since 2025), 1 HR in 32 PA (3.1% · league ~3%).
Max Muncy LLAD HOME vs Nick Martinez R · LADwind 1.05park 0.97brl 19%recent 6% HOT29%MatchupC+250
Max Muncy L
LAD HOME vs Nick Martinez R · LAD
wind 1.05park 0.97brl 19%recent 6% HOT
29%
MatchupC
+250
Max Muncy L
LAD HOME vs Nick Martinez R · LAD
wind 1.05park 0.97brl 19%recent 6% HOT
29%
Matchup summary · vs Nick Martinez
Batter Summary 📉 Cooling off
Muncy has 12 of his 16 HRs off RHP, 48% hard-hit that side. 9 of his 16 HRs have come at home, slugging .548 there. Muncy has been hot against arms like this lately. Wind is blowing out to his pull side.
Form Last ~3 weeks (recency-weighted): .218 xwOBAcon (lg .372), 6% well-hit (lg 14%), 24% hard-hit · 1 HR in 34 PA. Recent contact quality has slipped below league — a real cool-down, not just bad luck. The "HOT" chip is matchup-only — he still grades hot vs Martinez’s arsenal even while the overall bat cools.
Ranking Reasoning
Strong HR spot.
The park favors LH power, big power vs RHP (18% barrels) and hot against this kind of arsenal.
The park favors LH power, big power vs RHP (18% barrels) and hot against this kind of arsenal.
🏟️ Homered here 26× at this park (since ’25)
⚾ vs Martinez (career): 2/4 AB | 1 HR | 1K
Pitch by Pitch
Pitch-by-pitch · Martinez throws / Muncy hits
Stuff & usage = the arm’s; whiff / contact / EV / barrel / air-ground / HR = Muncy’s 2026 vs RHP · green = bat’s edge
ChangeSt 327% used
Whiff
35%
Contact
65%
EV
87
Barrel
4%
Air/Gnd
8/62
HR
1
24 BBE
CutterSt 6724% used
Whiff
13%
Contact
87%
EV
95
Barrel
25%
Air/Gnd
75/0
HR
3
12 BBE
4-SeamSt 2922% used
Whiff
16%
Contact
84%
EV
96
Barrel
8%
Air/Gnd
32/25
HR
6
40 BBE
SinkerSt 6313% used
Whiff
12%
Contact
88%
EV
92
Barrel
13%
Air/Gnd
20/47
HR
1
15 BBE
CurveSt 3910% used
Whiff
27%
Contact
73%
EV
88
Barrel
12%
Air/Gnd
38/62
HR
0
8 BBE
SliderSt 264% used
Whiff
32%
Contact
68%
EV
102
Barrel
0%
Air/Gnd
29/43
HR
1
7 BBE
Pitch-by-pitch · Kimbrel throws / Muncy hits
Stuff & usage = the arm’s; whiff / contact / EV / barrel / air-ground / HR = Muncy’s 2026 vs RHP · green = bat’s edge
4-Seam—68% used
Whiff
16%
Contact
84%
EV
96
Barrel
8%
Air/Gnd
32/25
HR
6
40 BBE
Sweeper—14% used
Whiff
40%
Contact
60%
EV
—
Barrel
—
Air/Gnd
—
HR
—
thin 2026
Knuckle-Curve—13% used
Whiff
29%
Contact
71%
EV
—
Barrel
—
Air/Gnd
—
HR
—
thin 2026
Change—4% used
Whiff
35%
Contact
65%
EV
87
Barrel
4%
Air/Gnd
8/62
HR
1
24 BBE
Pitch-by-pitch · Seymour throws / Muncy hits
Stuff & usage = the arm’s; whiff / contact / EV / barrel / air-ground / HR = Muncy’s 2026 vs LHP · green = bat’s edge
Change—26% used
Whiff
38%
Contact
62%
EV
99
Barrel
0%
Air/Gnd
0/75
HR
0
4 BBE
4-Seam—21% used
Whiff
16%
Contact
84%
EV
90
Barrel
14%
Air/Gnd
29/14
HR
0
7 BBE
Sweeper—19% used
Whiff
—
Contact
—
EV
—
Barrel
—
Air/Gnd
—
HR
—
thin 2026
Sinker—19% used
Whiff
5%
Contact
95%
EV
82
Barrel
0%
Air/Gnd
11/78
HR
1
9 BBE
Slider—9% used
Whiff
41%
Contact
59%
EV
91
Barrel
0%
Air/Gnd
50/33
HR
1
6 BBE
Cutter—6% used
Whiff
17%
Contact
83%
EV
—
Barrel
—
Air/Gnd
—
HR
—
thin 2026
Pitch-by-pitch · Sulser throws / Muncy hits
Stuff & usage = the arm’s; whiff / contact / EV / barrel / air-ground / HR = Muncy’s 2026 vs RHP · green = bat’s edge
4-Seam—44% used
Whiff
16%
Contact
84%
EV
96
Barrel
8%
Air/Gnd
32/25
HR
6
40 BBE
Change—42% used
Whiff
35%
Contact
65%
EV
87
Barrel
4%
Air/Gnd
8/62
HR
1
24 BBE
Cutter—15% used
Whiff
13%
Contact
87%
EV
95
Barrel
25%
Air/Gnd
75/0
HR
3
12 BBE
Pitch-by-pitch · Legumina throws / Muncy hits
Stuff & usage = the arm’s; whiff / contact / EV / barrel / air-ground / HR = Muncy’s 2026 vs RHP · green = bat’s edge
4-Seam—54% used
Whiff
16%
Contact
84%
EV
96
Barrel
8%
Air/Gnd
32/25
HR
6
40 BBE
Change—20% used
Whiff
35%
Contact
65%
EV
87
Barrel
4%
Air/Gnd
8/62
HR
1
24 BBE
Sinker—13% used
Whiff
12%
Contact
88%
EV
92
Barrel
13%
Air/Gnd
20/47
HR
1
15 BBE
Sweeper—12% used
Whiff
40%
Contact
60%
EV
—
Barrel
—
Air/Gnd
—
HR
—
thin 2026
Pitch-by-pitch · Booser throws / Muncy hits
Stuff & usage = the arm’s; whiff / contact / EV / barrel / air-ground / HR = Muncy’s 2026 vs LHP · green = bat’s edge
Sweeper—47% used
Whiff
—
Contact
—
EV
—
Barrel
—
Air/Gnd
—
HR
—
thin 2026
4-Seam—41% used
Whiff
16%
Contact
84%
EV
90
Barrel
14%
Air/Gnd
29/14
HR
0
7 BBE
Cutter—12% used
Whiff
17%
Contact
83%
EV
—
Barrel
—
Air/Gnd
—
HR
—
thin 2026
Pitch-by-pitch · Baker throws / Muncy hits
Stuff & usage = the arm’s; whiff / contact / EV / barrel / air-ground / HR = Muncy’s 2026 vs RHP · green = bat’s edge
4-Seam—48% used
Whiff
16%
Contact
84%
EV
96
Barrel
8%
Air/Gnd
32/25
HR
6
40 BBE
Change—41% used
Whiff
35%
Contact
65%
EV
87
Barrel
4%
Air/Gnd
8/62
HR
1
24 BBE
Slider—11% used
Whiff
32%
Contact
68%
EV
102
Barrel
0%
Air/Gnd
29/43
HR
1
7 BBE
Pitch-by-pitch · Kelly throws / Muncy hits
Stuff & usage = the arm’s; whiff / contact / EV / barrel / air-ground / HR = Muncy’s 2026 vs RHP · green = bat’s edge
Sinker—53% used
Whiff
12%
Contact
88%
EV
92
Barrel
13%
Air/Gnd
20/47
HR
1
15 BBE
Change—15% used
Whiff
35%
Contact
65%
EV
87
Barrel
4%
Air/Gnd
8/62
HR
1
24 BBE
4-Seam—13% used
Whiff
16%
Contact
84%
EV
96
Barrel
8%
Air/Gnd
32/25
HR
6
40 BBE
Cutter—13% used
Whiff
13%
Contact
87%
EV
95
Barrel
25%
Air/Gnd
75/0
HR
3
12 BBE
Sweeper—7% used
Whiff
40%
Contact
60%
EV
—
Barrel
—
Air/Gnd
—
HR
—
thin 2026
Pitch-by-pitch · Cleavinger throws / Muncy hits
Stuff & usage = the arm’s; whiff / contact / EV / barrel / air-ground / HR = Muncy’s 2026 vs LHP · green = bat’s edge
Sinker—48% used
Whiff
5%
Contact
95%
EV
82
Barrel
0%
Air/Gnd
11/78
HR
1
9 BBE
Sweeper—34% used
Whiff
—
Contact
—
EV
—
Barrel
—
Air/Gnd
—
HR
—
thin 2026
Slider—15% used
Whiff
41%
Contact
59%
EV
91
Barrel
0%
Air/Gnd
50/33
HR
1
6 BBE
Pitch-by-pitch · Jax throws / Muncy hits
Stuff & usage = the arm’s; whiff / contact / EV / barrel / air-ground / HR = Muncy’s 2026 vs RHP · green = bat’s edge
Change—31% used
Whiff
35%
Contact
65%
EV
87
Barrel
4%
Air/Gnd
8/62
HR
1
24 BBE
Sweeper—29% used
Whiff
40%
Contact
60%
EV
—
Barrel
—
Air/Gnd
—
HR
—
thin 2026
4-Seam—24% used
Whiff
16%
Contact
84%
EV
96
Barrel
8%
Air/Gnd
32/25
HR
6
40 BBE
Cutter—7% used
Whiff
13%
Contact
87%
EV
95
Barrel
25%
Air/Gnd
75/0
HR
3
12 BBE
Curve—5% used
Whiff
27%
Contact
73%
EV
88
Barrel
12%
Air/Gnd
38/62
HR
0
8 BBE
Sinker—4% used
Whiff
12%
Contact
88%
EV
92
Barrel
13%
Air/Gnd
20/47
HR
1
15 BBE
🎯 Target
Matchup-Fit · barrel alignment vs Nick Martinez’s arsenal
Change 27% usedbarrels 4% · allows 0% · 1 HR
Cutter 24% usedbarrels 25% · allows 2% · 3 HR
4-Seam 22% usedbarrels 8% · allows 18% · 6 HR
Sinker 13% usedbarrels 13% · allows 3% · 1 HR
Curve 10% usedbarrels 12% · allows 12%
Air / Park
Pulls 28% in the air; pull side RF — park ×1.18 × wind out to RF (9 mph) ×1.03 → net ×1.22 → park+wind fits his pull power.
Recent form · last 5
Barrel 8% · EV 87 · 2 HR over his last 5.
Matchup-Fit · barrel alignment vs Craig Kimbrel’s arsenal
4-Seam 68% usedbarrels 8% · allows 5% · 6 HR
Sweeper 14% usedbarrels — · allows —
Knuckle-Curve 13% usedbarrels — · allows 0%
Air / Park
Pulls 28% in the air; pull side RF — park ×1.18 × wind out to RF (9 mph) ×1.03 → net ×1.22 → park+wind fits his pull power.
Recent form · last 5
Barrel 8% · EV 87 · 2 HR over his last 5.
Matchup-Fit · barrel alignment vs Ian Seymour’s arsenal
Change 26% usedbarrels 0% · allows 0%
4-Seam 21% usedbarrels 14% · allows 0%
Sweeper 19% usedbarrels — · allows 0%
Sinker 19% usedbarrels 0% · allows 0% · 1 HR
Slider 9% usedbarrels 0% · allows 12% · 1 HR
Air / Park
Pulls 28% in the air; pull side RF — park ×1.18 × wind out to RF (9 mph) ×1.03 → net ×1.22 → park+wind fits his pull power.
Recent form · last 5
Barrel 8% · EV 87 · 2 HR over his last 5.
Matchup-Fit · barrel alignment vs Cole Sulser’s arsenal
4-Seam 44% usedbarrels 8% · allows 4% · 6 HR
Change 42% usedbarrels 4% · allows 0% · 1 HR
Cutter 15% usedbarrels 25% · allows 8% · 3 HR
Air / Park
Pulls 28% in the air; pull side RF — park ×1.18 × wind out to RF (9 mph) ×1.03 → net ×1.22 → park+wind fits his pull power.
Recent form · last 5
Barrel 8% · EV 87 · 2 HR over his last 5.
Matchup-Fit · barrel alignment vs Casey Legumina’s arsenal
4-Seam 54% usedbarrels 8% · allows 4% · 6 HR
Change 20% usedbarrels 4% · allows 0% · 1 HR
Sinker 13% usedbarrels 13% · allows — · 1 HR
Sweeper 12% usedbarrels — · allows —
Air / Park
Pulls 28% in the air; pull side RF — park ×1.18 × wind out to RF (9 mph) ×1.03 → net ×1.22 → park+wind fits his pull power.
Recent form · last 5
Barrel 8% · EV 87 · 2 HR over his last 5.
Matchup-Fit · barrel alignment vs Cam Booser’s arsenal
Sweeper 47% usedbarrels — · allows —
4-Seam 41% usedbarrels 14% · allows —
Cutter 12% usedbarrels — · allows —
Air / Park
Pulls 28% in the air; pull side RF — park ×1.18 × wind out to RF (9 mph) ×1.03 → net ×1.22 → park+wind fits his pull power.
Recent form · last 5
Barrel 8% · EV 87 · 2 HR over his last 5.
Matchup-Fit · barrel alignment vs Bryan Baker’s arsenal
4-Seam 48% usedbarrels 8% · allows 8% · 6 HR
Change 41% usedbarrels 4% · allows 0% · 1 HR
Slider 11% usedbarrels 0% · allows — · 1 HR
Air / Park
Pulls 28% in the air; pull side RF — park ×1.18 × wind out to RF (9 mph) ×1.03 → net ×1.22 → park+wind fits his pull power.
Recent form · last 5
Barrel 8% · EV 87 · 2 HR over his last 5.
Matchup-Fit · barrel alignment vs Kevin Kelly’s arsenal
Sinker 53% usedbarrels 13% · allows 14% · 1 HR
Change 15% usedbarrels 4% · allows 0% · 1 HR
4-Seam 13% usedbarrels 8% · allows — · 6 HR
Cutter 13% usedbarrels 25% · allows — · 3 HR
Sweeper 7% usedbarrels — · allows —
Air / Park
Pulls 28% in the air; pull side RF — park ×1.18 × wind out to RF (9 mph) ×1.03 → net ×1.22 → park+wind fits his pull power.
Recent form · last 5
Barrel 8% · EV 87 · 2 HR over his last 5.
Matchup-Fit · barrel alignment vs Garrett Cleavinger’s arsenal
Sinker 48% usedbarrels 0% · allows 0% · 1 HR
Sweeper 34% usedbarrels — · allows —
Slider 15% usedbarrels 0% · allows — · 1 HR
Air / Park
Pulls 28% in the air; pull side RF — park ×1.18 × wind out to RF (9 mph) ×1.03 → net ×1.22 → park+wind fits his pull power.
Recent form · last 5
Barrel 8% · EV 87 · 2 HR over his last 5.
Matchup-Fit · barrel alignment vs Griffin Jax’s arsenal
Change 31% usedbarrels 4% · allows 0% · 1 HR
Sweeper 29% usedbarrels — · allows 0%
4-Seam 24% usedbarrels 8% · allows 15% · 6 HR
Cutter 7% usedbarrels 25% · allows 12% · 3 HR
Curve 5% usedbarrels 12% · allows —
Air / Park
Pulls 28% in the air; pull side RF — park ×1.18 × wind out to RF (9 mph) ×1.03 → net ×1.22 → park+wind fits his pull power.
Recent form · last 5
Barrel 8% · EV 87 · 2 HR over his last 5.
Matchup Lab
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Batter Stats
Last 5 games · H/AB · K · GB · FB · barrel · EV · HR/FB · HR
| H/AB | K | GB | FB | BRL | EV | HR/FB | HR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5G | 4/15 | 3 | 42% | 25% | 8% | 87 | 67% | 2 |
| 06/14 | 0/3 | 1 | 0% | 50% | 0% | 98 | 0% | 0 |
| 06/13 | 3/3 | 0 | 33% | 67% | 33% | 88 | 100% | 2 |
| 06/12 | 0/3 | 1 | 50% | 0% | 0% | 82 | — | 0 |
| 06/11 | 0/3 | 0 | 67% | 0% | 0% | 72 | — | 0 |
| 06/10 | 1/3 | 1 | 50% | 0% | 0% | 100 | — | 0 |
Swing & Bat Tracking (416 swings)
bat tracking
Bat speed71.4 mph
Swing length6.9 ft
Attack angle16.4°
contact
swing timing
Early28%
On-time59%
Late13%
miss profile
Over17%
Under17%
Tied-up7%
Centered63%
Flailed29%
Batter power & contact · longer + greener = more HR-likely
vs LHP · 5 HR in 74 PA
vs RHP · 14 HR in 221 PA
Matchup strength · longer + greener = more HR-favorable
matchup strength
supporting
Home / Away HR splits · season-to-date
Home HOME9 HR / 102 PA · 8.8%
Home · .548 SLG
Away AWAY7 HR / 149 PA · 4.7%
Away · .520 SLG
Park fit · spray vs this yard
Pulls 28% of contact in the air; his pull side is RF here — HR factor ×1.18 → park fits his pull power.
Pitcher
Nick Martinez • RHP (TB)TB @ LAD | vs LAD6/2 W–L (Tied–21st) • 2.43 ERA (7th) • 44 Ks • 1.16 WHIP (32nd)1.0 HR/9 • 14% Barrel • 25% FB • 15% K • 2.43 ERA (H 3.02 / A 1.75)▬ Holding steady1.12hittability
Nick Martinez • RHP (TB)
TB @ LAD | vs LAD
6/2 W–L (Tied–21st) • 2.43 ERA (7th) • 44 Ks • 1.16 WHIP (32nd)
1.0 HR/9 • 14% Barrel • 25% FB • 15% K • 2.43 ERA (H 3.02 / A 1.75)
▬ Holding steady
1.12
hittability
Last 3 starts · IP / pitches / HR
▬ Holding steady No big change in his home-run risk lately.
06/09 7.0 IP · 73 P0 HR
06/03 4.0 IP · 58 P2 HR
05/29 7.0 IP · 88 P0 HR
Pitches to target · go-deep pitches
The pitches he's given up the most homers on — and the bats most likely to punish them.
vs lefty bats4-seam · cutter
Most likely to capitalize: Muncy 29%, Freeman 28%, Rushing 25%
vs righty batscutter · sinker
Most likely to capitalize: Pages 26%, Betts 18%
HR hittability vs a league-average hitter · longer + greener = easier to take deep
vs LHB · 0.9 HR/9 · 5 HR in 222 PA
vs RHB · 1.2 HR/9 · 5 HR in 158 PA
Pitch mix · stuff · HR rating · swing-and-miss · contact
spin 12:55
spin 2:18
spin 12:42
spin 12:56
spin 6:31
spin 12:55
spin 2:18
spin 12:42
spin 12:56
spin 6:31
spin 12:55
spin 2:18
spin 12:42
spin 12:56
spin 6:31
Where he’s hittable · xSLG allowed by zone (vs LHB)
Green = he gives up slug there. Tap a band → out/mid/in cells → each pitch’s xSLG + a cyan contact-allowed bar. Cell splits use 2025–26; display only.
Splits · home/away & batter hand
| HR/9 | HR | Barrel | FB% | K% | ERA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 0.65 | 3 | — | — | 15% | 3.02 |
| Away | 0.75 | 3 | — | — | 12% | 1.75 |
| vs LHB | 0.95 | 5 | 14% | 25% | 16% | — |
| vs RHB | 1.20 | 5 | 13% | 24% | 15% | — |
HR = home runs allowed (season-to-date). ERA isn’t reported by batter hand, and barrel/FB% aren’t available by home/away — those cells show —.
Pitcher summary · vs LHB
Nick Martinez carries a 1.03 HR/9 and gave up 0 in his last outing (2 over his last 3). Lefties have taken him deep 5 of 9 times (0.6 HR/9 to LHB). LAD ranks 5th in HR factor for LH hitters.
Craig Kimbrel • RHP (TB)TB @ LAD | vs LAD0/2 W–L • 5.82 ERA • 18 Ks • 1.59 WHIP1.2 HR/9 • 14% Barrel • 27% FB • 22% K • 5.82 ERA (H 7.71 / A 5.11)◐ Homer-prone on the year, quieter last 30.98hittability
Craig Kimbrel • RHP (TB)
TB @ LAD | vs LAD
0/2 W–L • 5.82 ERA • 18 Ks • 1.59 WHIP
1.2 HR/9 • 14% Barrel • 27% FB • 22% K • 5.82 ERA (H 7.71 / A 5.11)
◐ Homer-prone on the year, quieter last 3
0.98
hittability
Last 3 games · IP / pitches / HR
◐ Homer-prone on the year, quieter last 3 Homer-prone over the full season — the quiet recent stretch is a small sample the model discounts.
06/14 0.1 IP · 18 P0 HR
06/13 0.2 IP · 17 P0 HR
05/26 1.0 IP · 15 P0 HR
Pitches to target · go-deep pitches
The pitches he's given up the most homers on — and the bats most likely to punish them.
vs lefty bats4-seam
Most likely to capitalize: Muncy 29%, Freeman 28%, Rushing 25%
vs righty batsno clear target
Most likely to capitalize: Pages 26%, Betts 18%
HR hittability vs a league-average hitter · longer + greener = easier to take deep
vs LHB · 1.3 HR/9 · 2 HR in 50 PA
vs RHB · 1.1 HR/9 · 1 HR in 43 PA
Pitch mix · stuff · HR rating · swing-and-miss · contact
Splits · home/away & batter hand
| HR/9 | HR | Barrel | FB% | K% | ERA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.93 | 1 | — | — | 37% | 7.71 |
| Away | 1.46 | 2 | — | — | 19% | 5.11 |
| vs LHB | 1.32 | 2 | 15% | 26% | 19% | — |
| vs RHB | 1.09 | 1 | 14% | 24% | 25% | — |
HR = home runs allowed (season-to-date). ERA isn’t reported by batter hand, and barrel/FB% aren’t available by home/away — those cells show —.
Pitcher summary · vs LHB
Craig Kimbrel carries a 1.22 HR/9. He owns a 5.11 ERA on the road. LAD ranks 5th in HR factor for LH hitters.
Ian Seymour • LHP (TB)TB @ LAD | vs LAD3/0 W–L • 4.93 ERA • 41 Ks • 1.28 WHIP1.2 HR/9 • 11% Barrel • 29% FB • 24% K • 4.93 ERA (H 2.95 / A 7.41)▬ Holding steady0.93hittability
Ian Seymour • LHP (TB)
TB @ LAD | vs LAD
3/0 W–L • 4.93 ERA • 41 Ks • 1.28 WHIP
1.2 HR/9 • 11% Barrel • 29% FB • 24% K • 4.93 ERA (H 2.95 / A 7.41)
▬ Holding steady
0.93
hittability
Last 3 outings · IP / pitches / HR
▬ Holding steady No big change in his home-run risk lately.
06/14 3.1 IP · 72 P bulk1 HR
06/08 4.0 IP · 55 P1 HR
06/02 2.0 IP · 40 P relief1 HR
Pitches to target · go-deep pitches
The pitches he's given up the most homers on — and the bats most likely to punish them.
vs lefty bats4-seam · sweeper
Most likely to capitalize: Muncy 29%, Freeman 28%, Rushing 25%
vs righty batssinker
Most likely to capitalize: Pages 26%, Betts 18%, Freeland 8%
HR hittability vs a league-average hitter · longer + greener = easier to take deep
vs LHB · 1.6 HR/9 · 4 HR in 79 PA
vs RHB · 0.9 HR/9 · 2 HR in 111 PA
Pitch mix · stuff · HR rating · swing-and-miss · contact
Splits · home/away & batter hand
| HR/9 | HR | Barrel | FB% | K% | ERA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.27 | 3 | — | — | 24% | 2.95 |
| Away | 1.59 | 3 | — | — | 26% | 7.41 |
| vs LHB | 1.56 | 4 | 12% | 29% | 27% | — |
| vs RHB | 0.90 | 2 | 11% | 25% | 21% | — |
HR = home runs allowed (season-to-date). ERA isn’t reported by batter hand, and barrel/FB% aren’t available by home/away — those cells show —.
Pitcher summary · vs LHB
Ian Seymour carries a 1.20 HR/9 and gave up 1 in his last outing (3 over his last 3). Lefties have taken him deep 3 of 5 times (2.2 HR/9 to LHB). He owns a 7.41 ERA on the road. LAD ranks 5th in HR factor for LH hitters.
Cole Sulser • RHP (TB)TB @ LAD | vs LAD1/0 W–L • 6.49 ERA • 25 Ks • 1.78 WHIP1.4 HR/9 • 15% Barrel • 25% FB • 20% K • 6.49 ERA (H 6.94 / A 6.14)▬ Holding steady0.91hittability
Cole Sulser • RHP (TB)
TB @ LAD | vs LAD
1/0 W–L • 6.49 ERA • 25 Ks • 1.78 WHIP
1.4 HR/9 • 15% Barrel • 25% FB • 20% K • 6.49 ERA (H 6.94 / A 6.14)
▬ Holding steady
0.91
hittability
Last 3 games · IP / pitches / HR
▬ Holding steady No big change in his home-run risk lately.
06/13 0.2 IP · 39 P1 HR
06/10 0.1 IP · 18 P1 HR
06/07 1.0 IP · 15 P0 HR
Pitches to target · go-deep pitches
The pitches he's given up the most homers on — and the bats most likely to punish them.
vs lefty batsno clear target
Most likely to capitalize: Muncy 29%, Freeman 28%, Rushing 25%
vs righty batscutter · 4-seam
Most likely to capitalize: Pages 26%, Betts 18%
HR hittability vs a league-average hitter · longer + greener = easier to take deep
vs LHB · 0.6 HR/9 · 0 HR in 85 PA
vs RHB · 2.2 HR/9 · 6 HR in 68 PA
Pitch mix · stuff · HR rating · swing-and-miss · contact
Splits · home/away & batter hand
| HR/9 | HR | Barrel | FB% | K% | ERA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.54 | 2 | — | — | 17% | 6.94 |
| Away | 1.23 | 2 | — | — | 22% | 6.14 |
| vs LHB | 0.58 | 0 | 13% | 25% | 21% | — |
| vs RHB | 2.19 | 6 | 16% | 24% | 20% | — |
HR = home runs allowed (season-to-date). ERA isn’t reported by batter hand, and barrel/FB% aren’t available by home/away — those cells show —.
Pitcher summary · vs LHB
Cole Sulser carries a 1.41 HR/9 and gave up 1 in his last outing (2 over his last 3). He owns a 6.14 ERA on the road. LAD ranks 5th in HR factor for LH hitters.
Casey Legumina • RHP (TB)TB @ LAD | vs LAD2/1 W–L • 3.19 ERA • 23 Ks • 1.26 WHIP0.9 HR/9 • 15% Barrel • 22% FB • 19% K • 3.19 ERA (H 3.20 / A 3.18)▬ Holding steady0.89hittability
Casey Legumina • RHP (TB)
TB @ LAD | vs LAD
2/1 W–L • 3.19 ERA • 23 Ks • 1.26 WHIP
0.9 HR/9 • 15% Barrel • 22% FB • 19% K • 3.19 ERA (H 3.20 / A 3.18)
▬ Holding steady
0.89
hittability
Last 3 outings · IP / pitches / HR
▬ Holding steady No big change in his home-run risk lately.
06/14 1.2 IP · 28 P0 HR
06/10 0.1 IP · 2 P relief0 HR
06/08 1.1 IP · 12 P relief0 HR
Pitches to target · go-deep pitches
The pitches he's given up the most homers on — and the bats most likely to punish them.
vs lefty batsno clear target
Most likely to capitalize: Muncy 29%, Freeman 28%, Rushing 25%
vs righty batsslider · sweeper
Most likely to capitalize: Pages 26%, Betts 18%
HR hittability vs a league-average hitter · longer + greener = easier to take deep
vs LHB · 0.9 HR/9 · 1 HR in 68 PA
vs RHB · 1.1 HR/9 · 2 HR in 79 PA
Pitch mix · stuff · HR rating · swing-and-miss · contact
Splits · home/away & batter hand
| HR/9 | HR | Barrel | FB% | K% | ERA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 0.92 | 2 | — | — | 17% | 3.20 |
| Away | 0.00 | 0 | — | — | 20% | 3.18 |
| vs LHB | 0.91 | 1 | 14% | 25% | 23% | — |
| vs RHB | 1.08 | 2 | 16% | 21% | 17% | — |
HR = home runs allowed (season-to-date). ERA isn’t reported by batter hand, and barrel/FB% aren’t available by home/away — those cells show —.
Pitcher summary · vs LHB
Casey Legumina carries a 0.90 HR/9. LAD ranks 5th in HR factor for LH hitters.
Cam Booser • LHP (TB)TB @ LAD | vs LAD0/0 W–L • 0.00 ERA • 7 Ks • 0.94 WHIP0.7 HR/9 • 11% Barrel • 22% FB • 26% K • 0.00 ERA (H 0.00 / A 0.00)▬ Holding steady0.84hittability
Cam Booser • LHP (TB)
TB @ LAD | vs LAD
0/0 W–L • 0.00 ERA • 7 Ks • 0.94 WHIP
0.7 HR/9 • 11% Barrel • 22% FB • 26% K • 0.00 ERA (H 0.00 / A 0.00)
▬ Holding steady
0.84
hittability
Last 3 games · IP / pitches / HR
▬ Holding steady No big change in his home-run risk lately.
06/13 1.1 IP · 24 P0 HR
06/08 1.0 IP · 10 P0 HR
06/05 1.0 IP · 20 P0 HR
Not enough data for this view.
HR hittability vs a league-average hitter · longer + greener = easier to take deep
vs LHB · 1.0 HR/9 · 0 HR in 18 PA
vs RHB · 0.9 HR/9 · 0 HR in 22 PA
Pitch mix · stuff · HR rating · swing-and-miss · contact
Splits · home/away & batter hand
| HR/9 | HR | Barrel | FB% | K% | ERA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 0.00 | 0 | — | — | 20% | 0.00 |
| Away | 0.00 | 0 | — | — | 50% | 0.00 |
| vs LHB | 0.98 | 0 | 13% | 22% | 27% | — |
| vs RHB | 0.94 | 0 | 12% | 24% | 22% | — |
HR = home runs allowed (season-to-date). ERA isn’t reported by batter hand, and barrel/FB% aren’t available by home/away — those cells show —.
Pitcher summary · vs LHB
Cam Booser carries a 0.72 HR/9. LAD ranks 5th in HR factor for LH hitters.
Bryan Baker • RHP (TB)TB @ LAD | vs LAD1/0 W–L • 1.91 ERA • 32 Ks • 0.95 WHIP0.6 HR/9 • 13% Barrel • 16% FB • 25% K • 1.91 ERA (H 2.20 / A 1.50)◐ Homer-prone on the year, quieter last 30.78hittability
Bryan Baker • RHP (TB)
TB @ LAD | vs LAD
1/0 W–L • 1.91 ERA • 32 Ks • 0.95 WHIP
0.6 HR/9 • 13% Barrel • 16% FB • 25% K • 1.91 ERA (H 2.20 / A 1.50)
◐ Homer-prone on the year, quieter last 3
0.78
hittability
Last 3 games · IP / pitches / HR
◐ Homer-prone on the year, quieter last 3 Homer-prone over the full season — the quiet recent stretch is a small sample the model discounts.
06/14 1.0 IP · 14 P0 HR
06/09 1.0 IP · 13 P0 HR
06/08 1.0 IP · 12 P0 HR
Pitches to target · go-deep pitches
The pitches he's given up the most homers on — and the bats most likely to punish them.
vs lefty batsno clear target
Most likely to capitalize: Muncy 29%, Freeman 28%, Rushing 25%
vs righty batsslider
Most likely to capitalize: Pages 26%, Betts 18%
HR hittability vs a league-average hitter · longer + greener = easier to take deep
vs LHB · 0.7 HR/9 · 0 HR in 66 PA
vs RHB · 0.9 HR/9 · 1 HR in 66 PA
Pitch mix · stuff · HR rating · swing-and-miss · contact
Splits · home/away & batter hand
| HR/9 | HR | Barrel | FB% | K% | ERA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 0.55 | 1 | — | — | 25% | 2.20 |
| Away | 0.00 | 0 | — | — | 32% | 1.50 |
| vs LHB | 0.66 | 0 | 11% | 21% | 22% | — |
| vs RHB | 0.92 | 1 | 16% | 17% | 25% | — |
HR = home runs allowed (season-to-date). ERA isn’t reported by batter hand, and barrel/FB% aren’t available by home/away — those cells show —.
Pitcher summary · vs LHB
Bryan Baker carries a 0.57 HR/9. LAD ranks 5th in HR factor for LH hitters.
Kevin Kelly • RHP (TB)TB @ LAD | vs LAD4/2 W–L (Tied–59th) • 2.27 ERA • 25 Ks • 0.82 WHIP1.0 HR/9 • 10% Barrel • 17% FB • 20% K • 2.27 ERA (H 0.00 / A 4.80)◐ Homer-prone on the year, quieter last 30.77hittability
Kevin Kelly • RHP (TB)
TB @ LAD | vs LAD
4/2 W–L (Tied–59th) • 2.27 ERA • 25 Ks • 0.82 WHIP
1.0 HR/9 • 10% Barrel • 17% FB • 20% K • 2.27 ERA (H 0.00 / A 4.80)
◐ Homer-prone on the year, quieter last 3
0.77
hittability
Last 3 games · IP / pitches / HR
◐ Homer-prone on the year, quieter last 3 Homer-prone over the full season — the quiet recent stretch is a small sample the model discounts.
06/14 2.0 IP · 22 P0 HR
06/09 1.0 IP · 6 P0 HR
06/08 0.2 IP · 16 P0 HR
Pitches to target · go-deep pitches
The pitches he's given up the most homers on — and the bats most likely to punish them.
vs lefty batsno clear target
Most likely to capitalize: Muncy 29%, Freeman 28%, Rushing 25%
vs righty batssweeper
Most likely to capitalize: Pages 26%, Betts 18%
HR hittability vs a league-average hitter · longer + greener = easier to take deep
vs LHB · 1.0 HR/9 · 1 HR in 56 PA
vs RHB · 1.1 HR/9 · 2 HR in 78 PA
Pitch mix · stuff · HR rating · swing-and-miss · contact
Splits · home/away & batter hand
| HR/9 | HR | Barrel | FB% | K% | ERA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 0.00 | 0 | — | — | 19% | 0.00 |
| Away | 1.20 | 2 | — | — | 23% | 4.80 |
| vs LHB | 0.99 | 1 | 12% | 18% | 16% | — |
| vs RHB | 1.09 | 2 | 12% | 21% | 23% | — |
HR = home runs allowed (season-to-date). ERA isn’t reported by batter hand, and barrel/FB% aren’t available by home/away — those cells show —.
Pitcher summary · vs LHB
Kevin Kelly carries a 0.96 HR/9. LAD ranks 5th in HR factor for LH hitters.
Garrett Cleavinger • LHP (TB)TB @ LAD | vs LAD1/2 W–L • 5.51 ERA • 24 Ks • 1.47 WHIP1.0 HR/9 • 14% Barrel • 21% FB • 28% K • 5.51 ERA (H 4.05 / A 6.52)▲ Easier to take deep lately0.68hittability
Garrett Cleavinger • LHP (TB)
TB @ LAD | vs LAD
1/2 W–L • 5.51 ERA • 24 Ks • 1.47 WHIP
1.0 HR/9 • 14% Barrel • 21% FB • 28% K • 5.51 ERA (H 4.05 / A 6.52)
▲ Easier to take deep lately
0.68
hittability
Last 3 games · IP / pitches / HR
▲ Easier to take deep lately This pitcher is trending toward giving up home runs.
06/14 0.2 IP · 9 P0 HR
06/13 0.1 IP · 10 P0 HR
06/10 1.0 IP · 23 P1 HR
Pitches to target · go-deep pitches
The pitches he's given up the most homers on — and the bats most likely to punish them.
vs lefty batsno clear target
Most likely to capitalize: Muncy 29%, Freeman 28%, Rushing 25%
vs righty batsslider
Most likely to capitalize: Pages 26%, Betts 18%, Freeland 8%
HR hittability vs a league-average hitter · longer + greener = easier to take deep
vs LHB · 0.8 HR/9 · 0 HR in 36 PA
vs RHB · 1.3 HR/9 · 2 HR in 51 PA
Pitch mix · stuff · HR rating · swing-and-miss · contact
Splits · home/away & batter hand
| HR/9 | HR | Barrel | FB% | K% | ERA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.70 | 2 | — | — | 28% | 4.05 |
| Away | 0.00 | 0 | — | — | 36% | 6.52 |
| vs LHB | 0.83 | 0 | 13% | 20% | 26% | — |
| vs RHB | 1.31 | 2 | 15% | 24% | 26% | — |
HR = home runs allowed (season-to-date). ERA isn’t reported by batter hand, and barrel/FB% aren’t available by home/away — those cells show —.
Pitcher summary · vs LHB
Garrett Cleavinger carries a 1.01 HR/9 and gave up 0 in his last outing (1 over his last 3). He owns a 6.52 ERA on the road. LAD ranks 5th in HR factor for LH hitters.
Griffin Jax • RHP (TB)TB @ LAD | vs LAD1/5 W–L • 3.68 ERA • 41 Ks • 1.36 WHIP1.3 HR/9 • 15% Barrel • 23% FB • 22% K • 3.68 ERA (H 4.86 / A 2.96)▬ Holding steady0.65hittability
Griffin Jax • RHP (TB)
TB @ LAD | vs LAD
1/5 W–L • 3.68 ERA • 41 Ks • 1.36 WHIP
1.3 HR/9 • 15% Barrel • 23% FB • 22% K • 3.68 ERA (H 4.86 / A 2.96)
▬ Holding steady
0.65
hittability
Last 3 starts · IP / pitches / HR
▬ Holding steady No big change in his home-run risk lately.
06/13 5.0 IP · 63 P0 HR
06/07 5.0 IP · 62 P0 HR
06/01 4.0 IP · 72 P3 HR
Pitches to target · go-deep pitches
The pitches he's given up the most homers on — and the bats most likely to punish them.
vs lefty bats4-seam · cutter
Most likely to capitalize: Muncy 29%, Freeman 28%, Rushing 25%
vs righty bats4-seam
Most likely to capitalize: Pages 26%, Betts 18%
HR hittability vs a league-average hitter · longer + greener = easier to take deep
vs LHB · 1.3 HR/9 · 4 HR in 106 PA
vs RHB · 1.3 HR/9 · 3 HR in 85 PA
Pitch mix · stuff · HR rating · swing-and-miss · contact
Splits · home/away & batter hand
| HR/9 | HR | Barrel | FB% | K% | ERA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.70 | 5 | — | — | 32% | 4.86 |
| Away | 0.66 | 2 | — | — | 17% | 2.96 |
| vs LHB | 1.33 | 4 | 15% | 22% | 21% | — |
| vs RHB | 1.27 | 3 | 14% | 24% | 24% | — |
HR = home runs allowed (season-to-date). ERA isn’t reported by batter hand, and barrel/FB% aren’t available by home/away — those cells show —.
Pitcher summary · vs LHB
Griffin Jax carries a 1.35 HR/9 and gave up 0 in his last outing (3 over his last 3). Lefties have taken him deep 4 of 7 times (1.5 HR/9 to LHB). LAD ranks 5th in HR factor for LH hitters.
Pick who he’ll face
Matchup vs Nick MartinezC
Arms like Nick Martinez
Most similar arsenals (velocity, movement, mix): Brandon Woodruff, Michael Lorenzen, Michael Wacha, Cal Quantrill, Merrill Kelly, Mason Englert.
vs arms like this (since 2025), 3 HR in 20 PA (15.0% · league ~3%).
Matchup vs Craig KimbrelA · ×1.33
Arms like Craig Kimbrel
Most similar arsenals (velocity, movement, mix): Joe Ryan, AJ Blubaugh, Tony Santillan, Didier Fuentes, Cade Smith, Isaac Mattson.
vs arms like this (since 2025), 3 HR in 15 PA (20.0% · league ~3%).
Matchup vs Ian SeymourA · ×1.19
Arms like Ian Seymour
Most similar arsenals (velocity, movement, mix): Jovani Morán, Eduardo Rodriguez, Tyler Alexander, Brandon Williamson, Martín Pérez, Parker Messick.
vs arms like this (since 2025), 2 HR in 14 PA (14.3% · league ~3%).
Matchup vs Cole SulserA · ×1.34
Arms like Cole Sulser
Most similar arsenals (velocity, movement, mix): Connor Brogdon, Chris Paddack, Luke Weaver, Albert Suárez, Burch Smith, Paxton Schultz.
vs arms like this (since 2025), 0 HR in 17 PA (0.0% · league ~3%).
Matchup vs Casey LeguminaA · ×1.28
Arms like Casey Legumina
Most similar arsenals (velocity, movement, mix): Bryan Woo, Will Warren, Grant Anderson, Emerson Hancock, Yoendrys Gómez, Mitch Keller.
vs arms like this (since 2025), 4 HR in 21 PA (19.0% · league ~3%).
Matchup vs Cam BooserA · ×1.40
Arms like Cam Booser
Most similar arsenals (velocity, movement, mix): Dietrich Enns, Bryan Hudson, Bryan King, Garrett Crochet, Jalen Beeks, Andrew Nardi.
vs arms like this (since 2025), 0 HR in 16 PA (0.0% · league ~3%).
Matchup vs Bryan BakerA · ×1.32
Arms like Bryan Baker
Most similar arsenals (velocity, movement, mix): Luis Gil, Hunter Bigge, Luke Weaver, Jordan Leasure, Ryne Nelson, Enyel De Los Santos.
vs arms like this (since 2025), 1 HR in 16 PA (6.2% · league ~3%).
Matchup vs Kevin KellyA · ×1.12
Arms like Kevin Kelly
Most similar arsenals (velocity, movement, mix): Cooper Criswell, Justin Topa, Logan Webb, Clay Holmes, Chris Bassitt, Landen Roupp.
vs arms like this (since 2025), 2 HR in 39 PA (5.1% · league ~3%).
Matchup vs Garrett CleavingerA · ×1.28
Arms like Garrett Cleavinger
Most similar arsenals (velocity, movement, mix): Gregory Soto, Erik Miller, Ryan Borucki, Adrian Morejon, Anthony Banda, Carlos Rodón.
vs arms like this (since 2025), 0 HR in 11 PA (0.0% · league ~3%).
Matchup vs Griffin JaxA · ×1.18
Arms like Griffin Jax
Most similar arsenals (velocity, movement, mix): Orion Kerkering, Dustin May, Anthony Nunez, Kai-Wei Teng, Brandon Pfaadt, Calvin Faucher.
vs arms like this (since 2025), 1 HR in 30 PA (3.3% · league ~3%).
Nick Kurtz LATH HOME vs Jared Jones SP? · ATHwind 1.07park 0.93brl 20%recent 6% HOT28%MatchupC+250
Nick Kurtz L
ATH HOME vs Jared Jones SP? · ATH
wind 1.07park 0.93brl 20%recent 6% HOT
28%
MatchupC
+250
Nick Kurtz L
ATH HOME vs Jared Jones SP? · ATH
wind 1.07park 0.93brl 20%recent 6% HOT
28%
Matchup summary · vs Jared Jones
Batter Summary ➖ Steady
Kurtz has 11 of his 16 HRs off RHP, 56% hard-hit that side. 10 of his 16 HRs have come at home, slugging .613 there. Kurtz has been hot against arms like this lately.
Form Last ~3 weeks (recency-weighted): .403 xwOBAcon (lg .372), 6% well-hit (lg 14%), 48% hard-hit · 2 HR in 61 PA. Right around league — no real trend either way.
Ranking Reasoning
Strong HR spot.
Big power vs RHP (20% barrels), most of his pop comes at home and hot against this kind of arsenal.
Big power vs RHP (20% barrels), most of his pop comes at home and hot against this kind of arsenal.
🏟️ Homered here 31× at this park (since ’25)
Pitch by Pitch
Pitch-by-pitch · Santana throws / Kurtz hits
Stuff & usage = the arm’s; whiff / contact / EV / barrel / air-ground / HR = Kurtz’s 2026 vs RHP · green = bat’s edge
4-Seam—39% used
Whiff
28%
Contact
72%
EV
98
Barrel
15%
Air/Gnd
24/38
HR
6
34 BBE
Slider—36% used
Whiff
44%
Contact
56%
EV
96
Barrel
0%
Air/Gnd
8/33
HR
1
12 BBE
Change—18% used
Whiff
31%
Contact
69%
EV
85
Barrel
6%
Air/Gnd
24/47
HR
1
17 BBE
Cutter—6% used
Whiff
32%
Contact
68%
EV
93
Barrel
0%
Air/Gnd
22/33
HR
1
9 BBE
Pitch-by-pitch · Mattson throws / Kurtz hits
Stuff & usage = the arm’s; whiff / contact / EV / barrel / air-ground / HR = Kurtz’s 2026 vs RHP · green = bat’s edge
4-Seam—80% used
Whiff
28%
Contact
72%
EV
98
Barrel
15%
Air/Gnd
24/38
HR
6
34 BBE
Change—18% used
Whiff
31%
Contact
69%
EV
85
Barrel
6%
Air/Gnd
24/47
HR
1
17 BBE
Pitch-by-pitch · Bidois throws / Kurtz hits
Stuff & usage = the arm’s; whiff / contact / EV / barrel / air-ground / HR = Kurtz’s 2026 vs RHP · green = bat’s edge
4-Seam—58% used
Whiff
28%
Contact
72%
EV
98
Barrel
15%
Air/Gnd
24/38
HR
6
34 BBE
Slider—38% used
Whiff
44%
Contact
56%
EV
96
Barrel
0%
Air/Gnd
8/33
HR
1
12 BBE
Change—4% used
Whiff
31%
Contact
69%
EV
85
Barrel
6%
Air/Gnd
24/47
HR
1
17 BBE
Pitch-by-pitch · Sisk throws / Kurtz hits
Stuff & usage = the arm’s; whiff / contact / EV / barrel / air-ground / HR = Kurtz’s 2026 vs LHP · green = bat’s edge
Sinker—46% used
Whiff
22%
Contact
78%
EV
91
Barrel
0%
Air/Gnd
11/63
HR
0
19 BBE
Sweeper—37% used
Whiff
42%
Contact
58%
EV
83
Barrel
25%
Air/Gnd
25/50
HR
0
4 BBE
4-Seam—8% used
Whiff
32%
Contact
68%
EV
100
Barrel
7%
Air/Gnd
21/50
HR
2
14 BBE
Curve—8% used
Whiff
—
Contact
—
EV
—
Barrel
—
Air/Gnd
—
HR
—
thin 2026
Pitch-by-pitch · Ramírez throws / Kurtz hits
Stuff & usage = the arm’s; whiff / contact / EV / barrel / air-ground / HR = Kurtz’s 2026 vs RHP · green = bat’s edge
4-Seam—42% used
Whiff
28%
Contact
72%
EV
98
Barrel
15%
Air/Gnd
24/38
HR
6
34 BBE
Curve—31% used
Whiff
36%
Contact
64%
EV
94
Barrel
17%
Air/Gnd
17/33
HR
1
6 BBE
Sweeper—20% used
Whiff
27%
Contact
73%
EV
98
Barrel
11%
Air/Gnd
22/22
HR
1
9 BBE
Sinker—6% used
Whiff
22%
Contact
78%
EV
95
Barrel
0%
Air/Gnd
11/72
HR
0
18 BBE
Pitch-by-pitch · Montgomery throws / Kurtz hits
Stuff & usage = the arm’s; whiff / contact / EV / barrel / air-ground / HR = Kurtz’s 2026 vs LHP · green = bat’s edge
4-Seam—59% used
Whiff
32%
Contact
68%
EV
100
Barrel
7%
Air/Gnd
21/50
HR
2
14 BBE
Slider—38% used
Whiff
38%
Contact
62%
EV
91
Barrel
10%
Air/Gnd
30/50
HR
1
10 BBE
Pitch-by-pitch · Soto throws / Kurtz hits
Stuff & usage = the arm’s; whiff / contact / EV / barrel / air-ground / HR = Kurtz’s 2026 vs LHP · green = bat’s edge
Sinker—57% used
Whiff
22%
Contact
78%
EV
91
Barrel
0%
Air/Gnd
11/63
HR
0
19 BBE
Slider—25% used
Whiff
38%
Contact
62%
EV
91
Barrel
10%
Air/Gnd
30/50
HR
1
10 BBE
Sweeper—10% used
Whiff
42%
Contact
58%
EV
83
Barrel
25%
Air/Gnd
25/50
HR
0
4 BBE
4-Seam—8% used
Whiff
32%
Contact
68%
EV
100
Barrel
7%
Air/Gnd
21/50
HR
2
14 BBE
🎯 Target
Matchup-Fit · barrel alignment vs Dennis Santana’s arsenal
4-Seam 39% usedbarrels 15% · allows 18% · 6 HR
Slider 36% usedbarrels 0% · allows 10% · 1 HR
Change 18% usedbarrels 6% · allows 7% · 1 HR
Cutter 6% usedbarrels 0% · allows — · 1 HR
Air / Park
Pulls 12% in the air; pull side RF — park ×1.09 → park+wind fits his pull power.
Recent form · last 5
Barrel 8% · EV 91 · 2 HR over his last 5.
Matchup-Fit · barrel alignment vs Isaac Mattson’s arsenal
4-Seam 80% usedbarrels 15% · allows 0% · 6 HR
Change 18% usedbarrels 6% · allows — · 1 HR
Air / Park
Pulls 12% in the air; pull side RF — park ×1.09 → park+wind fits his pull power.
Recent form · last 5
Barrel 8% · EV 91 · 2 HR over his last 5.
Matchup-Fit · barrel alignment vs Brandan Bidois’s arsenal
4-Seam 58% usedbarrels 15% · allows 38% · 6 HR
Slider 38% usedbarrels 0% · allows 12% · 1 HR
Air / Park
Pulls 12% in the air; pull side RF — park ×1.09 → park+wind fits his pull power.
Recent form · last 5
Barrel 8% · EV 91 · 2 HR over his last 5.
Matchup-Fit · barrel alignment vs Evan Sisk’s arsenal
Sinker 46% usedbarrels 0% · allows 9%
Sweeper 37% usedbarrels 25% · allows 0%
4-Seam 8% usedbarrels 7% · allows — · 2 HR
Curve 8% usedbarrels — · allows —
Air / Park
Pulls 12% in the air; pull side RF — park ×1.09 → park+wind fits his pull power.
Recent form · last 5
Barrel 8% · EV 91 · 2 HR over his last 5.
Matchup-Fit · barrel alignment vs Yohan Ramírez’s arsenal
4-Seam 42% usedbarrels 15% · allows 12% · 6 HR
Curve 31% usedbarrels 17% · allows 0% · 1 HR
Sweeper 20% usedbarrels 11% · allows 0% · 1 HR
Sinker 6% usedbarrels 0% · allows —
Air / Park
Pulls 12% in the air; pull side RF — park ×1.09 → park+wind fits his pull power.
Recent form · last 5
Barrel 8% · EV 91 · 2 HR over his last 5.
Matchup-Fit · barrel alignment vs Mason Montgomery’s arsenal
4-Seam 59% usedbarrels 7% · allows 0% · 2 HR
Slider 38% usedbarrels 10% · allows 0% · 1 HR
Air / Park
Pulls 12% in the air; pull side RF — park ×1.09 → park+wind fits his pull power.
Recent form · last 5
Barrel 8% · EV 91 · 2 HR over his last 5.
Matchup-Fit · barrel alignment vs Gregory Soto’s arsenal
Sinker 57% usedbarrels 0% · allows 0%
Slider 25% usedbarrels 10% · allows — · 1 HR
Sweeper 10% usedbarrels 25% · allows —
4-Seam 8% usedbarrels 7% · allows — · 2 HR
Air / Park
Pulls 12% in the air; pull side RF — park ×1.09 → park+wind fits his pull power.
Recent form · last 5
Barrel 8% · EV 91 · 2 HR over his last 5.
Batter Stats
Last 5 games · H/AB · K · GB · FB · barrel · EV · HR/FB · HR
| H/AB | K | GB | FB | BRL | EV | HR/FB | HR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5G | 6/18 | 4 | 77% | 15% | 8% | 91 | 100% | 2 |
| 06/14 | 1/3 | 0 | 100% | 0% | 0% | 97 | — | 0 |
| 06/13 | 1/4 | 1 | 100% | 0% | 0% | 88 | — | 0 |
| 06/12 | 2/5 | 1 | 50% | 50% | 25% | 86 | 50% | 1 |
| 06/10 | 1/3 | 1 | 100% | 0% | 0% | 94 | — | 0 |
| 06/09 | 1/3 | 1 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 92 | — | 1 |
Swing & Bat Tracking (498 swings)
bat tracking
Bat speed78.1 mph
Swing length7.8 ft
Attack angle13.3°
contact
swing timing
Early15%
On-time68%
Late17%
miss profile
Over21%
Under28%
Tied-up7%
Centered61%
Flailed32%
Batter power & contact · longer + greener = more HR-likely
vs LHP · 5 HR in 117 PA
vs RHP · 14 HR in 267 PA
Matchup strength · longer + greener = more HR-favorable
Starter unknown (TBD / no data) — scored vs a league-average pitcher; arsenal & zone are neutral.
matchup strength
supporting
Home / Away HR splits · season-to-date
Home HOME10 HR / 155 PA · 6.5%
Home · .613 SLG
Away AWAY6 HR / 165 PA · 3.6%
Away · .466 SLG
Park fit · spray vs this yard
Pulls 12% of contact in the air; his pull side is RF here — HR factor ×1.09 → neutral park fit.
Pitcher
Dennis Santana • RHP (PIT)PIT @ ATH | vs ATH2/3 W–L • 4.82 ERA • 22 Ks • 1.54 WHIP0.9 HR/9 • 14% Barrel • 26% FB • 18% K • 4.82 ERA (H 4.50 / A 5.14)◐ Homer-prone on the year, quieter last 31.06hittability
Dennis Santana • RHP (PIT)
PIT @ ATH | vs ATH
2/3 W–L • 4.82 ERA • 22 Ks • 1.54 WHIP
0.9 HR/9 • 14% Barrel • 26% FB • 18% K • 4.82 ERA (H 4.50 / A 5.14)
◐ Homer-prone on the year, quieter last 3
1.06
hittability
Last 3 games · IP / pitches / HR
◐ Homer-prone on the year, quieter last 3 Homer-prone over the full season — the quiet recent stretch is a small sample the model discounts.
06/11 1.0 IP · 16 P0 HR
06/09 1.1 IP · 31 P0 HR
06/05 1.0 IP · 7 P0 HR
Pitches to target · go-deep pitches
The pitches he's given up the most homers on — and the bats most likely to punish them.
vs lefty batschange
Most likely to capitalize: Kurtz 28%, Soderstrom 24%, Butler 12%
vs righty batsno clear target
Most likely to capitalize: Langeliers 28%, Gelof 20%, Bolte 9%
HR hittability vs a league-average hitter · longer + greener = easier to take deep
vs LHB · 1.2 HR/9 · 2 HR in 69 PA
vs RHB · 0.9 HR/9 · 1 HR in 67 PA
Pitch mix · stuff · HR rating · swing-and-miss · contact
Splits · home/away & batter hand
| HR/9 | HR | Barrel | FB% | K% | ERA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.93 | 3 | — | — | 15% | 4.50 |
| Away | 0.00 | 0 | — | — | 20% | 5.14 |
| vs LHB | 1.15 | 2 | 16% | 27% | 21% | — |
| vs RHB | 0.91 | 1 | 12% | 22% | 17% | — |
HR = home runs allowed (season-to-date). ERA isn’t reported by batter hand, and barrel/FB% aren’t available by home/away — those cells show —.
Pitcher summary · vs LHB
Dennis Santana carries a 0.95 HR/9. He owns a 5.14 ERA on the road.
Isaac Mattson • RHP (PIT)PIT @ ATH | vs ATH0/0 W–L • 3.86 ERA • 16 Ks • 1.48 WHIP0.4 HR/9 • 16% Barrel • 26% FB • 20% K • 3.86 ERA (H 3.65 / A 4.15)▬ Holding steady1.02hittability
Isaac Mattson • RHP (PIT)
PIT @ ATH | vs ATH
0/0 W–L • 3.86 ERA • 16 Ks • 1.48 WHIP
0.4 HR/9 • 16% Barrel • 26% FB • 20% K • 3.86 ERA (H 3.65 / A 4.15)
▬ Holding steady
1.02
hittability
Last 3 games · IP / pitches / HR
▬ Holding steady No big change in his home-run risk lately.
06/14 1.1 IP · 27 P0 HR
05/17 1.0 IP · 15 P0 HR
05/16 1.1 IP · 25 P0 HR
Not enough data for this view.
HR hittability vs a league-average hitter · longer + greener = easier to take deep
vs LHB · 0.7 HR/9 · 0 HR in 51 PA
vs RHB · 0.7 HR/9 · 0 HR in 49 PA
Pitch mix · stuff · HR rating · swing-and-miss · contact
Splits · home/away & batter hand
| HR/9 | HR | Barrel | FB% | K% | ERA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 0.00 | 0 | — | — | 17% | 3.65 |
| Away | 0.00 | 0 | — | — | 18% | 4.15 |
| vs LHB | 0.73 | 0 | 14% | 24% | 21% | — |
| vs RHB | 0.74 | 0 | 16% | 25% | 20% | — |
HR = home runs allowed (season-to-date). ERA isn’t reported by batter hand, and barrel/FB% aren’t available by home/away — those cells show —.
Pitcher summary · vs LHB
Isaac Mattson carries a 0.45 HR/9.
Brandan Bidois • RHP (PIT)PIT @ ATH | vs ATH0/0 W–L • 5.14 ERA • 17 Ks • 1.86 WHIP1.7 HR/9 • 17% Barrel • 32% FB • 23% K • 5.14 ERA (H 6.10 / A 2.45)◐ Homer-prone on the year, quieter last 31.02hittability
Brandan Bidois • RHP (PIT)
PIT @ ATH | vs ATH
0/0 W–L • 5.14 ERA • 17 Ks • 1.86 WHIP
1.7 HR/9 • 17% Barrel • 32% FB • 23% K • 5.14 ERA (H 6.10 / A 2.45)
◐ Homer-prone on the year, quieter last 3
1.02
hittability
Last 3 games · IP / pitches / HR
◐ Homer-prone on the year, quieter last 3 Homer-prone over the full season — the quiet recent stretch is a small sample the model discounts.
06/14 0.2 IP · 21 P0 HR
06/11 1.1 IP · 29 P0 HR
06/09 0.2 IP · 36 P0 HR
Pitches to target · go-deep pitches
The pitches he's given up the most homers on — and the bats most likely to punish them.
vs lefty bats4-seam
Most likely to capitalize: Kurtz 28%, Soderstrom 24%, Butler 12%
vs righty batsno clear target
Most likely to capitalize: Langeliers 28%, Gelof 20%, Bolte 9%
HR hittability vs a league-average hitter · longer + greener = easier to take deep
vs LHB · 2.0 HR/9 · 4 HR in 43 PA
vs RHB · 0.9 HR/9 · 0 HR in 30 PA
Pitch mix · stuff · HR rating · swing-and-miss · contact
Splits · home/away & batter hand
| HR/9 | HR | Barrel | FB% | K% | ERA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.61 | 3 | — | — | 22% | 6.10 |
| Away | 2.45 | 1 | — | — | 31% | 2.45 |
| vs LHB | 2.02 | 4 | 17% | 32% | 22% | — |
| vs RHB | 0.87 | 0 | 14% | 23% | 23% | — |
HR = home runs allowed (season-to-date). ERA isn’t reported by batter hand, and barrel/FB% aren’t available by home/away — those cells show —.
Pitcher summary · vs LHB
Brandan Bidois carries a 1.68 HR/9. Lefties have taken him deep 4 of 4 times (5.1 HR/9 to LHB).
Evan Sisk • LHP (PIT)PIT @ ATH | vs ATH1/0 W–L • 1.80 ERA • 36 Ks • 1.13 WHIP0.6 HR/9 • 11% Barrel • 17% FB • 26% K • 1.80 ERA (H 2.87 / A 0.63)◐ Homer-prone on the year, quieter last 30.70hittability
Evan Sisk • LHP (PIT)
PIT @ ATH | vs ATH
1/0 W–L • 1.80 ERA • 36 Ks • 1.13 WHIP
0.6 HR/9 • 11% Barrel • 17% FB • 26% K • 1.80 ERA (H 2.87 / A 0.63)
◐ Homer-prone on the year, quieter last 3
0.70
hittability
Last 3 games · IP / pitches / HR
◐ Homer-prone on the year, quieter last 3 Homer-prone over the full season — the quiet recent stretch is a small sample the model discounts.
06/14 1.0 IP · 16 P0 HR
06/11 0.2 IP · 31 P0 HR
06/10 0.1 IP · 8 P0 HR
Not enough data for this view.
HR hittability vs a league-average hitter · longer + greener = easier to take deep
vs LHB · 0.9 HR/9 · 1 HR in 71 PA
vs RHB · 0.7 HR/9 · 0 HR in 64 PA
Pitch mix · stuff · HR rating · swing-and-miss · contact
Splits · home/away & batter hand
| HR/9 | HR | Barrel | FB% | K% | ERA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 0.00 | 0 | — | — | 32% | 2.87 |
| Away | 0.63 | 1 | — | — | 26% | 0.63 |
| vs LHB | 0.89 | 1 | 13% | 24% | 26% | — |
| vs RHB | 0.67 | 0 | 11% | 16% | 23% | — |
HR = home runs allowed (season-to-date). ERA isn’t reported by batter hand, and barrel/FB% aren’t available by home/away — those cells show —.
Pitcher summary · vs LHB
Evan Sisk carries a 0.56 HR/9.
Yohan Ramírez • RHP (PIT)PIT @ ATH | vs ATH4/2 W–L (Tied–59th) • 4.31 ERA • 45 Ks • 1.31 WHIP0.9 HR/9 • 12% Barrel • 23% FB • 25% K • 4.31 ERA (H 4.22 / A 4.42)◐ Homer-prone on the year, quieter last 30.69hittability
Yohan Ramírez • RHP (PIT)
PIT @ ATH | vs ATH
4/2 W–L (Tied–59th) • 4.31 ERA • 45 Ks • 1.31 WHIP
0.9 HR/9 • 12% Barrel • 23% FB • 25% K • 4.31 ERA (H 4.22 / A 4.42)
◐ Homer-prone on the year, quieter last 3
0.69
hittability
Last 3 games · IP / pitches / HR
◐ Homer-prone on the year, quieter last 3 Homer-prone over the full season — the quiet recent stretch is a small sample the model discounts.
06/13 1.0 IP · 23 P0 HR
06/11 2.0 IP · 35 P0 HR
06/06 2.0 IP · 23 P0 HR
Pitches to target · go-deep pitches
The pitches he's given up the most homers on — and the bats most likely to punish them.
vs lefty bats4-seam
Most likely to capitalize: Kurtz 28%, Soderstrom 24%, Butler 12%
vs righty batsno clear target
Most likely to capitalize: Langeliers 28%, Gelof 20%, Bolte 9%
HR hittability vs a league-average hitter · longer + greener = easier to take deep
vs LHB · 1.2 HR/9 · 3 HR in 93 PA
vs RHB · 0.8 HR/9 · 1 HR in 92 PA
Pitch mix · stuff · HR rating · swing-and-miss · contact
Splits · home/away & batter hand
| HR/9 | HR | Barrel | FB% | K% | ERA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 0.84 | 2 | — | — | 27% | 4.22 |
| Away | 0.98 | 2 | — | — | 24% | 4.42 |
| vs LHB | 1.21 | 3 | 15% | 26% | 25% | — |
| vs RHB | 0.78 | 1 | 10% | 20% | 23% | — |
HR = home runs allowed (season-to-date). ERA isn’t reported by batter hand, and barrel/FB% aren’t available by home/away — those cells show —.
Pitcher summary · vs LHB
Yohan Ramírez carries a 0.91 HR/9. Lefties have taken him deep 3 of 4 times (1.6 HR/9 to LHB).
Mason Montgomery • LHP (PIT)PIT @ ATH | vs ATH1/1 W–L • 4.33 ERA • 34 Ks • 1.41 WHIP1.0 HR/9 • 14% Barrel • 20% FB • 26% K • 4.33 ERA (H 2.84 / A 5.65)◐ Homer-prone on the year, quieter last 30.69hittability
Mason Montgomery • LHP (PIT)
PIT @ ATH | vs ATH
1/1 W–L • 4.33 ERA • 34 Ks • 1.41 WHIP
1.0 HR/9 • 14% Barrel • 20% FB • 26% K • 4.33 ERA (H 2.84 / A 5.65)
◐ Homer-prone on the year, quieter last 3
0.69
hittability
Last 3 outings · IP / pitches / HR
◐ Homer-prone on the year, quieter last 3 Homer-prone over the full season — the quiet recent stretch is a small sample the model discounts.
06/13 1.1 IP · 15 P relief0 HR
06/07 1.0 IP · 25 P0 HR
06/06 1.0 IP · 20 P relief0 HR
Pitches to target · go-deep pitches
The pitches he's given up the most homers on — and the bats most likely to punish them.
vs lefty batsno clear target
Most likely to capitalize: Kurtz 28%, Soderstrom 24%, Butler 12%
vs righty batscurve
Most likely to capitalize: Langeliers 28%, Gelof 20%, Bolte 9%
HR hittability vs a league-average hitter · longer + greener = easier to take deep
vs LHB · 1.1 HR/9 · 1 HR in 43 PA
vs RHB · 1.0 HR/9 · 2 HR in 89 PA
Pitch mix · stuff · HR rating · swing-and-miss · contact
Splits · home/away & batter hand
| HR/9 | HR | Barrel | FB% | K% | ERA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 0.71 | 1 | — | — | 28% | 2.84 |
| Away | 1.26 | 2 | — | — | 29% | 5.65 |
| vs LHB | 1.09 | 1 | 15% | 21% | 23% | — |
| vs RHB | 1.02 | 2 | 13% | 22% | 26% | — |
HR = home runs allowed (season-to-date). ERA isn’t reported by batter hand, and barrel/FB% aren’t available by home/away — those cells show —.
Pitcher summary · vs LHB
Mason Montgomery carries a 0.97 HR/9. He owns a 5.65 ERA on the road.
Gregory Soto • LHP (PIT)PIT @ ATH | vs ATH4/1 W–L (Tied–59th) • 3.26 ERA • 35 Ks • 0.92 WHIP0.8 HR/9 • 10% Barrel • 26% FB • 28% K • 3.26 ERA (H 3.24 / A 3.29)▲ Easier to take deep lately0.64hittability
Gregory Soto • LHP (PIT)
PIT @ ATH | vs ATH
4/1 W–L (Tied–59th) • 3.26 ERA • 35 Ks • 0.92 WHIP
0.8 HR/9 • 10% Barrel • 26% FB • 28% K • 3.26 ERA (H 3.24 / A 3.29)
▲ Easier to take deep lately
0.64
hittability
Last 3 games · IP / pitches / HR
▲ Easier to take deep lately This pitcher is trending toward giving up home runs.
06/13 1.0 IP · 13 P0 HR
06/10 1.0 IP · 8 P1 HR
06/03 0.0 IP · 18 P0 HR
Pitches to target · go-deep pitches
The pitches he's given up the most homers on — and the bats most likely to punish them.
vs lefty batssweeper · 4-seam
Most likely to capitalize: Kurtz 28%, Soderstrom 24%, Butler 12%
vs righty batsno clear target
Most likely to capitalize: Langeliers 28%, Gelof 20%, Bolte 9%
HR hittability vs a league-average hitter · longer + greener = easier to take deep
vs LHB · 1.4 HR/9 · 2 HR in 40 PA
vs RHB · 0.6 HR/9 · 0 HR in 87 PA
Pitch mix · stuff · HR rating · swing-and-miss · contact
Splits · home/away & batter hand
| HR/9 | HR | Barrel | FB% | K% | ERA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.08 | 2 | — | — | 22% | 3.24 |
| Away | 0.00 | 0 | — | — | 37% | 3.29 |
| vs LHB | 1.43 | 2 | 14% | 24% | 25% | — |
| vs RHB | 0.57 | 0 | 11% | 25% | 27% | — |
HR = home runs allowed (season-to-date). ERA isn’t reported by batter hand, and barrel/FB% aren’t available by home/away — those cells show —.
Pitcher summary · vs LHB
Gregory Soto carries a 0.79 HR/9 and gave up 0 in his last outing (1 over his last 3).
Pick who he’ll face
Matchup vs Dennis SantanaA · ×1.38
Arms like Dennis Santana
Most similar arsenals (velocity, movement, mix): Osvaldo Bido, Kevin Ginkel, Davis Martin, Andrés Muñoz, Jordan Leasure.
vs arms like this (since 2025), 2 HR in 17 PA (11.8% · league ~3%).
Matchup vs Isaac MattsonA · ×1.67
Arms like Isaac Mattson
Most similar arsenals (velocity, movement, mix): Luke Weaver, Gus Varland, Max Scherzer, Freddy Peralta, Spencer Strider, Cade Smith.
vs arms like this (since 2025), 3 HR in 31 PA (9.7% · league ~3%).
Matchup vs Brandan BidoisA · ×1.54
Matchup vs Evan SiskA · ×1.29
Arms like Evan Sisk
Most similar arsenals (velocity, movement, mix): Aaron Bummer, Ranger Suarez, David Peterson, Tyler Alexander, Kyle Hart, Jose Quintana.
vs arms like this (since 2025), 1 HR in 11 PA (9.1% · league ~3%).
Matchup vs Yohan RamírezA · ×1.40
Arms like Yohan Ramírez
Most similar arsenals (velocity, movement, mix): Kai-Wei Teng, Zack Wheeler, Gavin Williams, Grant Anderson, Yoendrys Gómez, Ryan Weiss.
vs arms like this (since 2025), 1 HR in 20 PA (5.0% · league ~3%).
Matchup vs Mason MontgomeryA · ×1.60
Arms like Mason Montgomery
Most similar arsenals (velocity, movement, mix): Tanner Scott, Erik Sabrowski, Justin Wrobleski, Jacob Latz, Jack Dreyer, Payton Tolle.
vs arms like this (since 2025), 1 HR in 41 PA (2.4% · league ~3%).
Matchup vs Gregory SotoA · ×1.30
Arms like Gregory Soto
Most similar arsenals (velocity, movement, mix): Erik Miller, Ryan Borucki, Adrian Morejon, Tim Mayza, Wandy Peralta, José A. Ferrer.
vs arms like this (since 2025), 2 HR in 33 PA (6.1% · league ~3%).
James Wood LWSH HOME vs Mitch Spence R · WSHwind 0.90park 1.00brl 30%recent 30% HOT28%MatchupA+251
James Wood L
WSH HOME vs Mitch Spence R · WSH
wind 0.90park 1.00brl 30%recent 30% HOT
28%
MatchupA
+251
James Wood L
WSH HOME vs Mitch Spence R · WSH
wind 0.90park 1.00brl 30%recent 30% HOT
28%
Matchup summary · vs Mitch Spence
Batter Summary 📈 Trending up
Wood has 15 of his 20 HRs off RHP, 54% hard-hit that side. 12 of his 20 HRs have come at home, slugging .619 there. Wood has been hot against arms like this lately.
Form Last ~3 weeks (recency-weighted): .570 xwOBAcon (lg .372), 30% well-hit (lg 14%), 60% hard-hit · 3 HR in 67 PA. Recent contact quality is beating league — the rating catches the heat before the HR totals show it.
Ranking Reasoning
Strong HR spot.
Big power vs RHP (25% barrels), most of his pop comes at home and hot against this kind of arsenal.
Big power vs RHP (25% barrels), most of his pop comes at home and hot against this kind of arsenal.
🏟️ Homered here 25× at this park (since ’25)
Pitch by Pitch
Pitch-by-pitch · Strahm throws / Wood hits
Stuff & usage = the arm’s; whiff / contact / EV / barrel / air-ground / HR = Wood’s 2026 vs LHP · green = bat’s edge
Slider—41% used
Whiff
50%
Contact
50%
EV
92
Barrel
20%
Air/Gnd
30/30
HR
2
10 BBE
Sinker—32% used
Whiff
19%
Contact
81%
EV
100
Barrel
5%
Air/Gnd
14/73
HR
1
22 BBE
4-Seam—21% used
Whiff
16%
Contact
84%
EV
93
Barrel
0%
Air/Gnd
8/50
HR
0
12 BBE
Cutter—6% used
Whiff
27%
Contact
73%
EV
—
Barrel
—
Air/Gnd
—
HR
—
thin 2026
Pitch-by-pitch · Schreiber throws / Wood hits
Stuff & usage = the arm’s; whiff / contact / EV / barrel / air-ground / HR = Wood’s 2026 vs RHP · green = bat’s edge
4-Seam—36% used
Whiff
16%
Contact
84%
EV
98
Barrel
8%
Air/Gnd
24/35
HR
5
49 BBE
Cutter—24% used
Whiff
29%
Contact
71%
EV
95
Barrel
13%
Air/Gnd
33/47
HR
2
15 BBE
Sweeper—17% used
Whiff
23%
Contact
77%
EV
101
Barrel
11%
Air/Gnd
33/11
HR
1
9 BBE
Sinker—12% used
Whiff
5%
Contact
95%
EV
95
Barrel
33%
Air/Gnd
33/44
HR
1
9 BBE
Change—11% used
Whiff
32%
Contact
68%
EV
92
Barrel
0%
Air/Gnd
12/59
HR
0
17 BBE
Pitch-by-pitch · Black throws / Wood hits
Stuff & usage = the arm’s; whiff / contact / EV / barrel / air-ground / HR = Wood’s 2026 vs RHP · green = bat’s edge
Sweeper—36% used
Whiff
23%
Contact
77%
EV
101
Barrel
11%
Air/Gnd
33/11
HR
1
9 BBE
4-Seam—36% used
Whiff
16%
Contact
84%
EV
98
Barrel
8%
Air/Gnd
24/35
HR
5
49 BBE
Cutter—12% used
Whiff
29%
Contact
71%
EV
95
Barrel
13%
Air/Gnd
33/47
HR
2
15 BBE
Sinker—8% used
Whiff
5%
Contact
95%
EV
95
Barrel
33%
Air/Gnd
33/44
HR
1
9 BBE
Change—7% used
Whiff
32%
Contact
68%
EV
92
Barrel
0%
Air/Gnd
12/59
HR
0
17 BBE
Pitch-by-pitch · Avila throws / Wood hits
Stuff & usage = the arm’s; whiff / contact / EV / barrel / air-ground / HR = Wood’s 2026 vs RHP · green = bat’s edge
4-Seam—35% used
Whiff
16%
Contact
84%
EV
98
Barrel
8%
Air/Gnd
24/35
HR
5
49 BBE
Sinker—20% used
Whiff
5%
Contact
95%
EV
95
Barrel
33%
Air/Gnd
33/44
HR
1
9 BBE
Curve—18% used
Whiff
48%
Contact
52%
EV
98
Barrel
14%
Air/Gnd
29/14
HR
1
7 BBE
Slider—14% used
Whiff
52%
Contact
48%
EV
102
Barrel
11%
Air/Gnd
44/22
HR
2
9 BBE
Change—13% used
Whiff
32%
Contact
68%
EV
92
Barrel
0%
Air/Gnd
12/59
HR
0
17 BBE
Pitch-by-pitch · Cruz throws / Wood hits
Stuff & usage = the arm’s; whiff / contact / EV / barrel / air-ground / HR = Wood’s 2026 vs RHP · green = bat’s edge
4-Seam—50% used
Whiff
16%
Contact
84%
EV
98
Barrel
8%
Air/Gnd
24/35
HR
5
49 BBE
Cutter—32% used
Whiff
29%
Contact
71%
EV
95
Barrel
13%
Air/Gnd
33/47
HR
2
15 BBE
Slider—19% used
Whiff
52%
Contact
48%
EV
102
Barrel
11%
Air/Gnd
44/22
HR
2
9 BBE
Pitch-by-pitch · Lange throws / Wood hits
Stuff & usage = the arm’s; whiff / contact / EV / barrel / air-ground / HR = Wood’s 2026 vs RHP · green = bat’s edge
Change—35% used
Whiff
32%
Contact
68%
EV
92
Barrel
0%
Air/Gnd
12/59
HR
0
17 BBE
Slider—30% used
Whiff
52%
Contact
48%
EV
102
Barrel
11%
Air/Gnd
44/22
HR
2
9 BBE
4-Seam—16% used
Whiff
16%
Contact
84%
EV
98
Barrel
8%
Air/Gnd
24/35
HR
5
49 BBE
Sinker—11% used
Whiff
5%
Contact
95%
EV
95
Barrel
33%
Air/Gnd
33/44
HR
1
9 BBE
Cutter—8% used
Whiff
29%
Contact
71%
EV
95
Barrel
13%
Air/Gnd
33/47
HR
2
15 BBE
Pitch-by-pitch · IV throws / Wood hits
Stuff & usage = the arm’s; whiff / contact / EV / barrel / air-ground / HR = Wood’s 2026 vs LHP · green = bat’s edge
Slider—48% used
Whiff
50%
Contact
50%
EV
92
Barrel
20%
Air/Gnd
30/30
HR
2
10 BBE
Sinker—35% used
Whiff
19%
Contact
81%
EV
100
Barrel
5%
Air/Gnd
14/73
HR
1
22 BBE
4-Seam—13% used
Whiff
16%
Contact
84%
EV
93
Barrel
0%
Air/Gnd
8/50
HR
0
12 BBE
Pitch-by-pitch · Erceg throws / Wood hits
Stuff & usage = the arm’s; whiff / contact / EV / barrel / air-ground / HR = Wood’s 2026 vs RHP · green = bat’s edge
4-Seam—39% used
Whiff
16%
Contact
84%
EV
98
Barrel
8%
Air/Gnd
24/35
HR
5
49 BBE
Change—27% used
Whiff
32%
Contact
68%
EV
92
Barrel
0%
Air/Gnd
12/59
HR
0
17 BBE
Slider—24% used
Whiff
52%
Contact
48%
EV
102
Barrel
11%
Air/Gnd
44/22
HR
2
9 BBE
Sinker—10% used
Whiff
5%
Contact
95%
EV
95
Barrel
33%
Air/Gnd
33/44
HR
1
9 BBE
🎯 Target
Not enough arsenal data for this arm.
Matchup-Fit · barrel alignment vs Matt Strahm’s arsenal
Slider 41% usedbarrels 20% · allows — · 2 HR
Sinker 32% usedbarrels 5% · allows 0% · 1 HR
4-Seam 21% usedbarrels 0% · allows 0%
Cutter 6% usedbarrels — · allows —
Air / Park
Pulls 11% in the air; pull side RF — park ×1.08 → park+wind fits his pull power.
Recent form · last 5
Barrel 12% · EV 93 · 3 HR over his last 5.
Matchup-Fit · barrel alignment vs John Schreiber’s arsenal
4-Seam 36% usedbarrels 8% · allows 12% · 5 HR
Cutter 24% usedbarrels 13% · allows 17% · 2 HR
Sweeper 17% usedbarrels 11% · allows — · 1 HR
Sinker 12% usedbarrels 33% · allows 0% · 1 HR
Change 11% usedbarrels 0% · allows 0%
Air / Park
Pulls 11% in the air; pull side RF — park ×1.08 → park+wind fits his pull power.
Recent form · last 5
Barrel 12% · EV 93 · 3 HR over his last 5.
Matchup-Fit · barrel alignment vs Mason Black’s arsenal
Sweeper 36% usedbarrels 11% · allows 0% · 1 HR
4-Seam 36% usedbarrels 8% · allows — · 5 HR
Cutter 12% usedbarrels 13% · allows — · 2 HR
Sinker 8% usedbarrels 33% · allows — · 1 HR
Change 7% usedbarrels 0% · allows —
Air / Park
Pulls 11% in the air; pull side RF — park ×1.08 → park+wind fits his pull power.
Recent form · last 5
Barrel 12% · EV 93 · 3 HR over his last 5.
Matchup-Fit · barrel alignment vs Luinder Avila’s arsenal
4-Seam 35% usedbarrels 8% · allows 13% · 5 HR
Sinker 20% usedbarrels 33% · allows 0% · 1 HR
Curve 18% usedbarrels 14% · allows — · 1 HR
Slider 14% usedbarrels 11% · allows — · 2 HR
Change 13% usedbarrels 0% · allows 0%
Air / Park
Pulls 11% in the air; pull side RF — park ×1.08 → park+wind fits his pull power.
Recent form · last 5
Barrel 12% · EV 93 · 3 HR over his last 5.
Matchup-Fit · barrel alignment vs Steven Cruz’s arsenal
4-Seam 50% usedbarrels 8% · allows 9% · 5 HR
Cutter 32% usedbarrels 13% · allows 0% · 2 HR
Slider 19% usedbarrels 11% · allows 25% · 2 HR
Air / Park
Pulls 11% in the air; pull side RF — park ×1.08 → park+wind fits his pull power.
Recent form · last 5
Barrel 12% · EV 93 · 3 HR over his last 5.
Matchup-Fit · barrel alignment vs Alex Lange’s arsenal
Change 35% usedbarrels 0% · allows 0%
Slider 30% usedbarrels 11% · allows 0% · 2 HR
4-Seam 16% usedbarrels 8% · allows 0% · 5 HR
Sinker 11% usedbarrels 33% · allows — · 1 HR
Cutter 8% usedbarrels 13% · allows — · 2 HR
Air / Park
Pulls 11% in the air; pull side RF — park ×1.08 → park+wind fits his pull power.
Recent form · last 5
Barrel 12% · EV 93 · 3 HR over his last 5.
Matchup-Fit · barrel alignment vs Daniel Lynch IV’s arsenal
Slider 48% usedbarrels 20% · allows 0% · 2 HR
Sinker 35% usedbarrels 5% · allows 0% · 1 HR
4-Seam 13% usedbarrels 0% · allows —
Air / Park
Pulls 11% in the air; pull side RF — park ×1.08 → park+wind fits his pull power.
Recent form · last 5
Barrel 12% · EV 93 · 3 HR over his last 5.
Not enough arsenal data for this arm.
Matchup-Fit · barrel alignment vs Lucas Erceg’s arsenal
4-Seam 39% usedbarrels 8% · allows 11% · 5 HR
Change 27% usedbarrels 0% · allows 7%
Slider 24% usedbarrels 11% · allows 0% · 2 HR
Sinker 10% usedbarrels 33% · allows 0% · 1 HR
Air / Park
Pulls 11% in the air; pull side RF — park ×1.08 → park+wind fits his pull power.
Recent form · last 5
Barrel 12% · EV 93 · 3 HR over his last 5.
Matchup Lab
Loading…
Batter Stats
Last 5 games · H/AB · K · GB · FB · barrel · EV · HR/FB · HR
| H/AB | K | GB | FB | BRL | EV | HR/FB | HR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5G | 10/21 | 5 | 44% | 25% | 12% | 93 | 75% | 3 |
| 06/14 | 3/4 | 0 | 0% | 25% | 0% | 102 | 100% | 1 |
| 06/13 | 1/4 | 1 | 67% | 0% | 0% | 75 | — | 0 |
| 06/12 | 2/4 | 1 | 67% | 33% | 33% | 96 | 100% | 1 |
| 06/10 | 1/4 | 1 | 33% | 67% | 33% | 94 | 50% | 1 |
| 06/09 | 3/5 | 2 | 67% | 0% | 0% | 96 | — | 0 |
Swing & Bat Tracking (525 swings)
bat tracking
Bat speed76.4 mph
Swing length7.4 ft
Attack angle11.9°
contact
swing timing
Early29%
On-time59%
Late12%
miss profile
Over22%
Under22%
Tied-up9%
Centered60%
Flailed31%
Batter power & contact · longer + greener = more HR-likely
vs LHP · 5 HR in 122 PA
vs RHP · 16 HR in 268 PA
Matchup strength · longer + greener = more HR-favorable
matchup strength
supporting
Home / Away HR splits · season-to-date
Home HOME12 HR / 162 PA · 7.4%
Home · .619 SLG
Away AWAY8 HR / 174 PA · 4.6%
Away · .500 SLG
Park fit · spray vs this yard
Pulls 11% of contact in the air; his pull side is RF here — HR factor ×1.08 → neutral park fit.
Pitcher
Mitch Spence RHP
No stat profile (low sample).
Pitcher summary · vs LHB
Mitch Spence: limited recent data to this side.
Matt Strahm • LHP (KC)KC @ WSH | vs WSH3/1 W–L • 5.40 ERA • 18 Ks • 1.25 WHIP2.2 HR/9 • 10% Barrel • 36% FB • 19% K • 5.40 ERA (H 7.84 / A 3.18)▲ Easier to take deep lately1.30hittability
Matt Strahm • LHP (KC)
KC @ WSH | vs WSH
3/1 W–L • 5.40 ERA • 18 Ks • 1.25 WHIP
2.2 HR/9 • 10% Barrel • 36% FB • 19% K • 5.40 ERA (H 7.84 / A 3.18)
▲ Easier to take deep lately
1.30
hittability
Last 3 games · IP / pitches / HR
▲ Easier to take deep lately This pitcher is trending toward giving up home runs.
06/13 0.1 IP · 8 P1 HR
06/12 1.0 IP · 14 P1 HR
06/10 1.0 IP · 21 P1 HR
Pitches to target · go-deep pitches
The pitches he's given up the most homers on — and the bats most likely to punish them.
vs lefty batsno clear target
Most likely to capitalize: Wood 28%, Jr. 21%, Abrams 20%
vs righty batsslider · 4-seam
Most likely to capitalize: Mead 13%, Crews 9%, Ruiz 7%
HR hittability vs a league-average hitter · longer + greener = easier to take deep
vs LHB · 0.9 HR/9 · 0 HR in 30 PA
vs RHB · 2.5 HR/9 · 8 HR in 82 PA
Pitch mix · stuff · HR rating · swing-and-miss · contact
Splits · home/away & batter hand
| HR/9 | HR | Barrel | FB% | K% | ERA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.48 | 4 | — | — | 20% | 7.84 |
| Away | 3.18 | 4 | — | — | 19% | 3.18 |
| vs LHB | 0.87 | 0 | 12% | 28% | 20% | — |
| vs RHB | 2.47 | 8 | 12% | 33% | 20% | — |
HR = home runs allowed (season-to-date). ERA isn’t reported by batter hand, and barrel/FB% aren’t available by home/away — those cells show —.
Pitcher summary · vs LHB
Matt Strahm carries a 2.19 HR/9 and gave up 1 in his last outing (3 over his last 3).
John Schreiber • RHP (KC)KC @ WSH | vs WSH0/3 W–L • 2.83 ERA • 21 Ks • 1.19 WHIP1.5 HR/9 • 11% Barrel • 21% FB • 19% K • 2.83 ERA (H 1.56 / A 4.76)▲ Easier to take deep lately1.00hittability
John Schreiber • RHP (KC)
KC @ WSH | vs WSH
0/3 W–L • 2.83 ERA • 21 Ks • 1.19 WHIP
1.5 HR/9 • 11% Barrel • 21% FB • 19% K • 2.83 ERA (H 1.56 / A 4.76)
▲ Easier to take deep lately
1.00
hittability
Last 3 games · IP / pitches / HR
▲ Easier to take deep lately This pitcher is trending toward giving up home runs.
06/13 1.2 IP · 28 P1 HR
06/10 1.0 IP · 18 P0 HR
06/09 0.2 IP · 10 P0 HR
Pitches to target · go-deep pitches
The pitches he's given up the most homers on — and the bats most likely to punish them.
vs lefty bats4-seam · cutter
Most likely to capitalize: Wood 28%, Jr. 21%, Abrams 20%
vs righty batssweeper
Most likely to capitalize: Mead 13%, Crews 9%, Young 7%
HR hittability vs a league-average hitter · longer + greener = easier to take deep
vs LHB · 1.7 HR/9 · 4 HR in 66 PA
vs RHB · 1.1 HR/9 · 2 HR in 71 PA
Pitch mix · stuff · HR rating · swing-and-miss · contact
Splits · home/away & batter hand
| HR/9 | HR | Barrel | FB% | K% | ERA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 0.52 | 1 | — | — | 20% | 1.56 |
| Away | 3.18 | 4 | — | — | 15% | 4.76 |
| vs LHB | 1.70 | 4 | 15% | 23% | 19% | — |
| vs RHB | 1.14 | 2 | 10% | 21% | 20% | — |
HR = home runs allowed (season-to-date). ERA isn’t reported by batter hand, and barrel/FB% aren’t available by home/away — those cells show —.
Pitcher summary · vs LHB
John Schreiber carries a 1.52 HR/9 and gave up 1 in his last outing. Lefties have taken him deep 4 of 6 times (2.5 HR/9 to LHB).
Mason Black • RHP (KC)KC @ WSH | vs WSH0/0 W–L • 2.63 ERA • 15 Ks • 1.68 WHIP1.1 HR/9 • 20% Barrel • 26% FB • 24% K • 2.63 ERA (H 4.50 / A 0.00)▲ Easier to take deep lately0.97hittability
Mason Black • RHP (KC)
KC @ WSH | vs WSH
0/0 W–L • 2.63 ERA • 15 Ks • 1.68 WHIP
1.1 HR/9 • 20% Barrel • 26% FB • 24% K • 2.63 ERA (H 4.50 / A 0.00)
▲ Easier to take deep lately
0.97
hittability
Last 3 games · IP / pitches / HR
▲ Easier to take deep lately This pitcher is trending toward giving up home runs.
06/12 2.1 IP · 48 P1 HR
06/10 1.2 IP · 39 P0 HR
06/07 1.0 IP · 10 P0 HR
Pitches to target · go-deep pitches
The pitches he's given up the most homers on — and the bats most likely to punish them.
vs lefty batssweeper
Most likely to capitalize: Wood 28%, Jr. 21%, Abrams 20%
vs righty batsno clear target
Most likely to capitalize: Mead 13%, Crews 9%, Young 7%
HR hittability vs a league-average hitter · longer + greener = easier to take deep
vs LHB · 1.4 HR/9 · 2 HR in 39 PA
vs RHB · 0.8 HR/9 · 0 HR in 40 PA
Pitch mix · stuff · HR rating · swing-and-miss · contact
Splits · home/away & batter hand
| HR/9 | HR | Barrel | FB% | K% | ERA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.25 | 2 | — | — | 26% | 4.50 |
| Away | 0.00 | 0 | — | — | 21% | 0.00 |
| vs LHB | 1.45 | 2 | 16% | 23% | 24% | — |
| vs RHB | 0.80 | 0 | 18% | 26% | 22% | — |
HR = home runs allowed (season-to-date). ERA isn’t reported by batter hand, and barrel/FB% aren’t available by home/away — those cells show —.
Pitcher summary · vs LHB
Mason Black carries a 1.06 HR/9 and gave up 1 in his last outing.
Luinder Avila • RHP (KC)KC @ WSH | vs WSH1/3 W–L • 6.19 ERA • 28 Ks • 1.81 WHIP1.1 HR/9 • 13% Barrel • 22% FB • 20% K • 6.19 ERA (H 12.79 / A 1.86)▬ Holding steady0.89hittability
Luinder Avila • RHP (KC)
KC @ WSH | vs WSH
1/3 W–L • 6.19 ERA • 28 Ks • 1.81 WHIP
1.1 HR/9 • 13% Barrel • 22% FB • 20% K • 6.19 ERA (H 12.79 / A 1.86)
▬ Holding steady
0.89
hittability
Last 3 starts · IP / pitches / HR
▬ Holding steady No big change in his home-run risk lately.
06/12 0.2 IP · 49 P2 HR
06/06 5.0 IP · 70 P0 HR
06/01 5.0 IP · 86 P1 HR
Pitches to target · go-deep pitches
The pitches he's given up the most homers on — and the bats most likely to punish them.
vs lefty batscurve · 4-seam
Most likely to capitalize: Wood 28%, Jr. 21%, Abrams 20%
vs righty batsno clear target
Most likely to capitalize: Mead 13%, Crews 9%, Young 7%
HR hittability vs a league-average hitter · longer + greener = easier to take deep
vs LHB · 1.3 HR/9 · 3 HR in 81 PA
vs RHB · 1.0 HR/9 · 1 HR in 61 PA
Pitch mix · stuff · HR rating · swing-and-miss · contact
Splits · home/away & batter hand
| HR/9 | HR | Barrel | FB% | K% | ERA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.13 | 3 | — | — | 16% | 12.79 |
| Away | 0.47 | 1 | — | — | 22% | 1.86 |
| vs LHB | 1.30 | 3 | 15% | 25% | 21% | — |
| vs RHB | 0.95 | 1 | 13% | 19% | 21% | — |
HR = home runs allowed (season-to-date). ERA isn’t reported by batter hand, and barrel/FB% aren’t available by home/away — those cells show —.
Pitcher summary · vs LHB
Luinder Avila carries a 1.11 HR/9 and gave up 2 in his last outing (3 over his last 3). Lefties have taken him deep 3 of 4 times (1.5 HR/9 to LHB).
Steven Cruz • RHP (KC)KC @ WSH | vs WSH1/2 W–L • 5.75 ERA • 27 Ks • 1.48 WHIP2.3 HR/9 • 16% Barrel • 21% FB • 26% K • 5.75 ERA (H 3.86 / A 9.95)◐ Homer-prone on the year, quieter last 30.88hittability
Steven Cruz • RHP (KC)
KC @ WSH | vs WSH
1/2 W–L • 5.75 ERA • 27 Ks • 1.48 WHIP
2.3 HR/9 • 16% Barrel • 21% FB • 26% K • 5.75 ERA (H 3.86 / A 9.95)
◐ Homer-prone on the year, quieter last 3
0.88
hittability
Last 3 games · IP / pitches / HR
◐ Homer-prone on the year, quieter last 3 Homer-prone over the full season — the quiet recent stretch is a small sample the model discounts.
06/14 0.2 IP · 8 P0 HR
06/12 2.0 IP · 21 P0 HR
06/10 1.0 IP · 19 P0 HR
Pitches to target · go-deep pitches
The pitches he's given up the most homers on — and the bats most likely to punish them.
vs lefty batsslider · 4-seam
Most likely to capitalize: Wood 28%, Jr. 21%, Abrams 20%
vs righty bats4-seam
Most likely to capitalize: Mead 13%, Crews 9%, Young 7%
HR hittability vs a league-average hitter · longer + greener = easier to take deep
vs LHB · 2.5 HR/9 · 7 HR in 67 PA
vs RHB · 1.2 HR/9 · 1 HR in 36 PA
Pitch mix · stuff · HR rating · swing-and-miss · contact
Splits · home/away & batter hand
| HR/9 | HR | Barrel | FB% | K% | ERA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.21 | 5 | — | — | 32% | 3.86 |
| Away | 2.84 | 2 | — | — | 27% | 9.95 |
| vs LHB | 2.46 | 7 | 17% | 23% | 27% | — |
| vs RHB | 1.15 | 1 | 13% | 21% | 23% | — |
HR = home runs allowed (season-to-date). ERA isn’t reported by batter hand, and barrel/FB% aren’t available by home/away — those cells show —.
Pitcher summary · vs LHB
Steven Cruz carries a 2.31 HR/9. Lefties have taken him deep 7 of 8 times (4.7 HR/9 to LHB). He owns a 9.95 ERA on the road.
Alex Lange • RHP (KC)KC @ WSH | vs WSH0/4 W–L • 4.13 ERA • 35 Ks • 1.44 WHIP0.7 HR/9 • 16% Barrel • 24% FB • 23% K • 4.13 ERA (H 5.79 / A 1.93)◐ Homer-prone on the year, quieter last 30.85hittability
Alex Lange • RHP (KC)
KC @ WSH | vs WSH
0/4 W–L • 4.13 ERA • 35 Ks • 1.44 WHIP
0.7 HR/9 • 16% Barrel • 24% FB • 23% K • 4.13 ERA (H 5.79 / A 1.93)
◐ Homer-prone on the year, quieter last 3
0.85
hittability
Last 3 games · IP / pitches / HR
◐ Homer-prone on the year, quieter last 3 Homer-prone over the full season — the quiet recent stretch is a small sample the model discounts.
06/13 1.2 IP · 31 P0 HR
06/10 1.0 IP · 32 P0 HR
06/09 1.0 IP · 19 P0 HR
Pitches to target · go-deep pitches
The pitches he's given up the most homers on — and the bats most likely to punish them.
vs lefty batssinker
Most likely to capitalize: Wood 28%, Jr. 21%, Abrams 20%
vs righty batsno clear target
Most likely to capitalize: Mead 13%, Crews 9%, Young 7%
HR hittability vs a league-average hitter · longer + greener = easier to take deep
vs LHB · 1.0 HR/9 · 2 HR in 88 PA
vs RHB · 0.6 HR/9 · 0 HR in 74 PA
Pitch mix · stuff · HR rating · swing-and-miss · contact
Splits · home/away & batter hand
| HR/9 | HR | Barrel | FB% | K% | ERA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 0.48 | 1 | — | — | 22% | 5.79 |
| Away | 0.64 | 1 | — | — | 29% | 1.93 |
| vs LHB | 1.02 | 2 | 17% | 22% | 23% | — |
| vs RHB | 0.62 | 0 | 13% | 25% | 22% | — |
HR = home runs allowed (season-to-date). ERA isn’t reported by batter hand, and barrel/FB% aren’t available by home/away — those cells show —.
Pitcher summary · vs LHB
Alex Lange carries a 0.67 HR/9.
Daniel Lynch IV • LHP (KC)KC @ WSH | vs WSH2/0 W–L • 1.80 ERA • 29 Ks • 0.90 WHIP0.7 HR/9 • 8% Barrel • 26% FB • 23% K • 1.80 ERA (H 1.62 / A 2.03)▼ Tougher to homer off lately0.82hittability
Daniel Lynch IV • LHP (KC)
KC @ WSH | vs WSH
2/0 W–L • 1.80 ERA • 29 Ks • 0.90 WHIP
0.7 HR/9 • 8% Barrel • 26% FB • 23% K • 1.80 ERA (H 1.62 / A 2.03)
▼ Tougher to homer off lately
0.82
hittability
Last 3 games · IP / pitches / HR
▼ Tougher to homer off lately This pitcher is trending the right way — fewer homers.
06/14 1.0 IP · 8 P0 HR
06/13 1.0 IP · 13 P0 HR
06/10 0.2 IP · 17 P0 HR
Pitches to target · go-deep pitches
The pitches he's given up the most homers on — and the bats most likely to punish them.
vs lefty batsno clear target
Most likely to capitalize: Wood 28%, Jr. 21%, Abrams 20%
vs righty bats4-seam
Most likely to capitalize: Mead 13%, Crews 9%, Ruiz 7%
HR hittability vs a league-average hitter · longer + greener = easier to take deep
vs LHB · 0.7 HR/9 · 0 HR in 58 PA
vs RHB · 1.1 HR/9 · 2 HR in 82 PA
Pitch mix · stuff · HR rating · swing-and-miss · contact
Splits · home/away & batter hand
| HR/9 | HR | Barrel | FB% | K% | ERA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 0.00 | 0 | — | — | 21% | 1.62 |
| Away | 0.67 | 1 | — | — | 29% | 2.03 |
| vs LHB | 0.70 | 0 | 11% | 25% | 23% | — |
| vs RHB | 1.06 | 2 | 10% | 25% | 23% | — |
HR = home runs allowed (season-to-date). ERA isn’t reported by batter hand, and barrel/FB% aren’t available by home/away — those cells show —.
Pitcher summary · vs LHB
Daniel Lynch IV carries a 0.74 HR/9.
Beck Way • RHP (KC)KC @ WSH | vs WSH0/0 W–L • 10.80 ERA • 6 Ks • 2.10 WHIP1.4 HR/9 • 17% Barrel • 25% FB • 25% K • 10.80 ERA (H 0.00 / A 27.00)▬ Holding steady0.74hittability
Beck Way • RHP (KC)
KC @ WSH | vs WSH
0/0 W–L • 10.80 ERA • 6 Ks • 2.10 WHIP
1.4 HR/9 • 17% Barrel • 25% FB • 25% K • 10.80 ERA (H 0.00 / A 27.00)
▬ Holding steady
0.74
hittability
Last 3 games · IP / pitches / HR
▬ Holding steady No big change in his home-run risk lately.
06/11 2.0 IP · 32 P0 HR
06/07 0.1 IP · 15 P1 HR
06/05 1.0 IP · 13 P0 HR
Not enough data for this view.
HR hittability vs a league-average hitter · longer + greener = easier to take deep
vs LHB · 1.5 HR/9 · 1 HR in 8 PA
vs RHB · 1.0 HR/9 · 0 HR in 13 PA
Pitch mix · stuff · HR rating · swing-and-miss · contact
Splits · home/away & batter hand
| HR/9 | HR | Barrel | FB% | K% | ERA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 0.00 | 0 | — | — | 50% | 0.00 |
| Away | 6.75 | 1 | — | — | 22% | 27.00 |
| vs LHB | 1.52 | 1 | 16% | 25% | 25% | — |
| vs RHB | 1.03 | 0 | 14% | 23% | 22% | — |
HR = home runs allowed (season-to-date). ERA isn’t reported by batter hand, and barrel/FB% aren’t available by home/away — those cells show —.
Pitcher summary · vs LHB
Beck Way carries a 1.36 HR/9 and gave up 0 in his last outing (1 over his last 3). He owns a 27.00 ERA on the road.
Lucas Erceg • RHP (KC)KC @ WSH | vs WSH3/3 W–L • 5.81 ERA • 22 Ks • 1.94 WHIP0.8 HR/9 • 12% Barrel • 22% FB • 19% K • 5.81 ERA (H 5.79 / A 5.84)◐ Homer-prone on the year, quieter last 30.73hittability
Lucas Erceg • RHP (KC)
KC @ WSH | vs WSH
3/3 W–L • 5.81 ERA • 22 Ks • 1.94 WHIP
0.8 HR/9 • 12% Barrel • 22% FB • 19% K • 5.81 ERA (H 5.79 / A 5.84)
◐ Homer-prone on the year, quieter last 3
0.73
hittability
Last 3 games · IP / pitches / HR
◐ Homer-prone on the year, quieter last 3 Homer-prone over the full season — the quiet recent stretch is a small sample the model discounts.
06/12 2.0 IP · 43 P0 HR
06/10 0.1 IP · 16 P0 HR
06/07 0.2 IP · 15 P0 HR
Pitches to target · go-deep pitches
The pitches he's given up the most homers on — and the bats most likely to punish them.
vs lefty batschange
Most likely to capitalize: Wood 28%, Jr. 21%, Abrams 20%
vs righty batsno clear target
Most likely to capitalize: Mead 13%, Crews 9%, Young 7%
HR hittability vs a league-average hitter · longer + greener = easier to take deep
vs LHB · 1.1 HR/9 · 2 HR in 75 PA
vs RHB · 0.7 HR/9 · 0 HR in 59 PA
Pitch mix · stuff · HR rating · swing-and-miss · contact
Splits · home/away & batter hand
| HR/9 | HR | Barrel | FB% | K% | ERA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 0.00 | 0 | — | — | 14% | 5.79 |
| Away | 1.46 | 2 | — | — | 22% | 5.84 |
| vs LHB | 1.11 | 2 | 16% | 22% | 19% | — |
| vs RHB | 0.69 | 0 | 9% | 23% | 20% | — |
HR = home runs allowed (season-to-date). ERA isn’t reported by batter hand, and barrel/FB% aren’t available by home/away — those cells show —.
Pitcher summary · vs LHB
Lucas Erceg carries a 0.76 HR/9. He owns a 5.84 ERA on the road.
Pick who he’ll face
Matchup vs Mitch SpenceA
Matchup vs Matt StrahmA · ×1.66
Arms like Matt Strahm
Most similar arsenals (velocity, movement, mix): Justin Wrobleski, Shane Drohan, Carlos Rodón, José Suarez, Jacob Lopez, Enmanuel De Jesus.
vs arms like this (since 2025), 2 HR in 29 PA (6.9% · league ~3%).
Matchup vs John SchreiberA · ×1.55
Arms like John Schreiber
Most similar arsenals (velocity, movement, mix): Grant Anderson, Chase Shugart, Stephen Kolek, Luis Severino, Michael McGreevy, Jake Woodford.
vs arms like this (since 2025), 0 HR in 16 PA (0.0% · league ~3%).
Matchup vs Mason BlackA · ×1.64
Matchup vs Luinder AvilaA · ×1.62
Arms like Luinder Avila
Most similar arsenals (velocity, movement, mix): Tyler Glasnow, Kyle Bradish, Spencer Miles, Luis Medina, Brad Keller, Jaden Hill.
vs arms like this (since 2025), 3 HR in 32 PA (9.4% · league ~3%).
Matchup vs Steven CruzA · ×1.64
Arms like Steven Cruz
Most similar arsenals (velocity, movement, mix): Didier Fuentes, Michael Petersen, Enyel De Los Santos, Gus Varland, Ryne Stanek, Will Klein.
vs arms like this (since 2025), 3 HR in 39 PA (7.7% · league ~3%).
Matchup vs Alex LangeA · ×1.62
Arms like Alex Lange
Most similar arsenals (velocity, movement, mix): Taylor Clarke, Kumar Rocker, Jaden Hill, Sandy Alcantara, Lucas Erceg, Cole Wilcox.
vs arms like this (since 2025), 3 HR in 40 PA (7.5% · league ~3%).
Matchup vs Daniel Lynch IVA · ×1.57
Arms like Daniel Lynch IV
Most similar arsenals (velocity, movement, mix): Erik Miller, David Peterson, Brock Burke, Anthony Banda, Yusei Kikuchi, Shane McClanahan.
vs arms like this (since 2025), 0 HR in 37 PA (0.0% · league ~3%).
Matchup vs Beck WayA · ×1.53
Matchup vs Lucas ErcegA · ×1.66
Arms like Lucas Erceg
Most similar arsenals (velocity, movement, mix): Luis Castillo, Cole Wilcox, Alex Lange, Kumar Rocker, Jaden Hill, Enyel De Los Santos.
vs arms like this (since 2025), 1 HR in 13 PA (7.7% · league ~3%).
Freddie Freeman LLAD HOME vs Nick Martinez R · LADwind 1.05park 0.97brl 20%recent 29% HOT28%MatchupC+255
Freddie Freeman L
LAD HOME vs Nick Martinez R · LAD
wind 1.05park 0.97brl 20%recent 29% HOT
28%
MatchupC
+255
Freddie Freeman L
LAD HOME vs Nick Martinez R · LAD
wind 1.05park 0.97brl 20%recent 29% HOT
28%
Matchup summary · vs Nick Martinez
Batter Summary 📈 Trending up
Freeman has 8 of his 11 HRs off RHP, 46% hard-hit that side. 5 of his 11 HRs have come at home, slugging .409 there. Freeman has been hot against arms like this lately. Wind is blowing out to his pull side.
Form Last ~3 weeks (recency-weighted): .436 xwOBAcon (lg .372), 29% well-hit (lg 14%), 39% hard-hit · 4 HR in 58 PA. Recent contact quality is beating league — the rating catches the heat before the HR totals show it.
Ranking Reasoning
Strong HR spot.
The park favors LH power, big power vs RHP (17% barrels) and hot against this kind of arsenal.
The park favors LH power, big power vs RHP (17% barrels) and hot against this kind of arsenal.
🏟️ Homered here 15× at this park (since ’25)
⚾ vs Martinez (career): 3/14 AB | 1 HR | 1K
Pitch by Pitch
Pitch-by-pitch · Martinez throws / Freeman hits
Stuff & usage = the arm’s; whiff / contact / EV / barrel / air-ground / HR = Freeman’s 2026 vs RHP · green = bat’s edge
ChangeSt 327% used
Whiff
18%
Contact
82%
EV
96
Barrel
4%
Air/Gnd
16/52
HR
0
25 BBE
CutterSt 6724% used
Whiff
12%
Contact
88%
EV
90
Barrel
7%
Air/Gnd
20/33
HR
0
15 BBE
4-SeamSt 2922% used
Whiff
17%
Contact
83%
EV
93
Barrel
12%
Air/Gnd
40/31
HR
5
42 BBE
SinkerSt 6313% used
Whiff
28%
Contact
72%
EV
88
Barrel
0%
Air/Gnd
19/75
HR
0
16 BBE
CurveSt 3910% used
Whiff
19%
Contact
81%
EV
89
Barrel
12%
Air/Gnd
12/71
HR
2
17 BBE
SliderSt 264% used
Whiff
16%
Contact
84%
EV
93
Barrel
18%
Air/Gnd
41/18
HR
0
17 BBE
Pitch-by-pitch · Kimbrel throws / Freeman hits
Stuff & usage = the arm’s; whiff / contact / EV / barrel / air-ground / HR = Freeman’s 2026 vs RHP · green = bat’s edge
4-Seam—68% used
Whiff
17%
Contact
83%
EV
93
Barrel
12%
Air/Gnd
40/31
HR
5
42 BBE
Sweeper—14% used
Whiff
19%
Contact
81%
EV
93
Barrel
0%
Air/Gnd
12/50
HR
0
8 BBE
Knuckle-Curve—13% used
Whiff
14%
Contact
86%
EV
93
Barrel
0%
Air/Gnd
33/33
HR
0
3 BBE
Change—4% used
Whiff
18%
Contact
82%
EV
96
Barrel
4%
Air/Gnd
16/52
HR
0
25 BBE
Pitch-by-pitch · Seymour throws / Freeman hits
Stuff & usage = the arm’s; whiff / contact / EV / barrel / air-ground / HR = Freeman’s 2026 vs LHP · green = bat’s edge
Change—26% used
Whiff
11%
Contact
89%
EV
88
Barrel
0%
Air/Gnd
0/67
HR
0
3 BBE
4-Seam—21% used
Whiff
33%
Contact
67%
EV
90
Barrel
20%
Air/Gnd
47/40
HR
1
15 BBE
Sweeper—19% used
Whiff
47%
Contact
53%
EV
88
Barrel
0%
Air/Gnd
25/50
HR
0
4 BBE
Sinker—19% used
Whiff
10%
Contact
90%
EV
87
Barrel
0%
Air/Gnd
14/67
HR
1
21 BBE
Slider—9% used
Whiff
34%
Contact
66%
EV
94
Barrel
0%
Air/Gnd
0/57
HR
0
7 BBE
Cutter—6% used
Whiff
14%
Contact
86%
EV
81
Barrel
0%
Air/Gnd
25/0
HR
0
4 BBE
Pitch-by-pitch · Sulser throws / Freeman hits
Stuff & usage = the arm’s; whiff / contact / EV / barrel / air-ground / HR = Freeman’s 2026 vs RHP · green = bat’s edge
4-Seam—44% used
Whiff
17%
Contact
83%
EV
93
Barrel
12%
Air/Gnd
40/31
HR
5
42 BBE
Change—42% used
Whiff
18%
Contact
82%
EV
96
Barrel
4%
Air/Gnd
16/52
HR
0
25 BBE
Cutter—15% used
Whiff
12%
Contact
88%
EV
90
Barrel
7%
Air/Gnd
20/33
HR
0
15 BBE
Pitch-by-pitch · Legumina throws / Freeman hits
Stuff & usage = the arm’s; whiff / contact / EV / barrel / air-ground / HR = Freeman’s 2026 vs RHP · green = bat’s edge
4-Seam—54% used
Whiff
17%
Contact
83%
EV
93
Barrel
12%
Air/Gnd
40/31
HR
5
42 BBE
Change—20% used
Whiff
18%
Contact
82%
EV
96
Barrel
4%
Air/Gnd
16/52
HR
0
25 BBE
Sinker—13% used
Whiff
28%
Contact
72%
EV
88
Barrel
0%
Air/Gnd
19/75
HR
0
16 BBE
Sweeper—12% used
Whiff
19%
Contact
81%
EV
93
Barrel
0%
Air/Gnd
12/50
HR
0
8 BBE
Pitch-by-pitch · Booser throws / Freeman hits
Stuff & usage = the arm’s; whiff / contact / EV / barrel / air-ground / HR = Freeman’s 2026 vs LHP · green = bat’s edge
Sweeper—47% used
Whiff
47%
Contact
53%
EV
88
Barrel
0%
Air/Gnd
25/50
HR
0
4 BBE
4-Seam—41% used
Whiff
33%
Contact
67%
EV
90
Barrel
20%
Air/Gnd
47/40
HR
1
15 BBE
Cutter—12% used
Whiff
14%
Contact
86%
EV
81
Barrel
0%
Air/Gnd
25/0
HR
0
4 BBE
Pitch-by-pitch · Baker throws / Freeman hits
Stuff & usage = the arm’s; whiff / contact / EV / barrel / air-ground / HR = Freeman’s 2026 vs RHP · green = bat’s edge
4-Seam—48% used
Whiff
17%
Contact
83%
EV
93
Barrel
12%
Air/Gnd
40/31
HR
5
42 BBE
Change—41% used
Whiff
18%
Contact
82%
EV
96
Barrel
4%
Air/Gnd
16/52
HR
0
25 BBE
Slider—11% used
Whiff
16%
Contact
84%
EV
93
Barrel
18%
Air/Gnd
41/18
HR
0
17 BBE
Pitch-by-pitch · Kelly throws / Freeman hits
Stuff & usage = the arm’s; whiff / contact / EV / barrel / air-ground / HR = Freeman’s 2026 vs RHP · green = bat’s edge
Sinker—53% used
Whiff
28%
Contact
72%
EV
88
Barrel
0%
Air/Gnd
19/75
HR
0
16 BBE
Change—15% used
Whiff
18%
Contact
82%
EV
96
Barrel
4%
Air/Gnd
16/52
HR
0
25 BBE
4-Seam—13% used
Whiff
17%
Contact
83%
EV
93
Barrel
12%
Air/Gnd
40/31
HR
5
42 BBE
Cutter—13% used
Whiff
12%
Contact
88%
EV
90
Barrel
7%
Air/Gnd
20/33
HR
0
15 BBE
Sweeper—7% used
Whiff
19%
Contact
81%
EV
93
Barrel
0%
Air/Gnd
12/50
HR
0
8 BBE
Pitch-by-pitch · Cleavinger throws / Freeman hits
Stuff & usage = the arm’s; whiff / contact / EV / barrel / air-ground / HR = Freeman’s 2026 vs LHP · green = bat’s edge
Sinker—48% used
Whiff
10%
Contact
90%
EV
87
Barrel
0%
Air/Gnd
14/67
HR
1
21 BBE
Sweeper—34% used
Whiff
47%
Contact
53%
EV
88
Barrel
0%
Air/Gnd
25/50
HR
0
4 BBE
Slider—15% used
Whiff
34%
Contact
66%
EV
94
Barrel
0%
Air/Gnd
0/57
HR
0
7 BBE
Pitch-by-pitch · Jax throws / Freeman hits
Stuff & usage = the arm’s; whiff / contact / EV / barrel / air-ground / HR = Freeman’s 2026 vs RHP · green = bat’s edge
Change—31% used
Whiff
18%
Contact
82%
EV
96
Barrel
4%
Air/Gnd
16/52
HR
0
25 BBE
Sweeper—29% used
Whiff
19%
Contact
81%
EV
93
Barrel
0%
Air/Gnd
12/50
HR
0
8 BBE
4-Seam—24% used
Whiff
17%
Contact
83%
EV
93
Barrel
12%
Air/Gnd
40/31
HR
5
42 BBE
Cutter—7% used
Whiff
12%
Contact
88%
EV
90
Barrel
7%
Air/Gnd
20/33
HR
0
15 BBE
Curve—5% used
Whiff
19%
Contact
81%
EV
89
Barrel
12%
Air/Gnd
12/71
HR
2
17 BBE
Sinker—4% used
Whiff
28%
Contact
72%
EV
88
Barrel
0%
Air/Gnd
19/75
HR
0
16 BBE
🎯 Target
Matchup-Fit · barrel alignment vs Nick Martinez’s arsenal
Change 27% usedbarrels 4% · allows 0%
Cutter 24% usedbarrels 7% · allows 2%
4-Seam 22% usedbarrels 12% · allows 18% · 5 HR
Sinker 13% usedbarrels 0% · allows 3%
Curve 10% usedbarrels 12% · allows 12% · 2 HR
Air / Park
Pulls 14% in the air; pull side RF — park ×1.18 × wind out to RF (9 mph) ×1.03 → net ×1.22 → park+wind fits his pull power.
Recent form · last 5
Barrel 7% · EV 87 · 1 HR over his last 5.
Matchup-Fit · barrel alignment vs Craig Kimbrel’s arsenal
4-Seam 68% usedbarrels 12% · allows 5% · 5 HR
Sweeper 14% usedbarrels 0% · allows —
Knuckle-Curve 13% usedbarrels — · allows 0%
Air / Park
Pulls 14% in the air; pull side RF — park ×1.18 × wind out to RF (9 mph) ×1.03 → net ×1.22 → park+wind fits his pull power.
Recent form · last 5
Barrel 7% · EV 87 · 1 HR over his last 5.
Matchup-Fit · barrel alignment vs Ian Seymour’s arsenal
Change 26% usedbarrels — · allows 0%
4-Seam 21% usedbarrels 20% · allows 0% · 1 HR
Sweeper 19% usedbarrels 0% · allows 0%
Sinker 19% usedbarrels 0% · allows 0% · 1 HR
Slider 9% usedbarrels 0% · allows 12%
Air / Park
Pulls 14% in the air; pull side RF — park ×1.18 × wind out to RF (9 mph) ×1.03 → net ×1.22 → park+wind fits his pull power.
Recent form · last 5
Barrel 7% · EV 87 · 1 HR over his last 5.
Matchup-Fit · barrel alignment vs Cole Sulser’s arsenal
4-Seam 44% usedbarrels 12% · allows 4% · 5 HR
Change 42% usedbarrels 4% · allows 0%
Cutter 15% usedbarrels 7% · allows 8%
Air / Park
Pulls 14% in the air; pull side RF — park ×1.18 × wind out to RF (9 mph) ×1.03 → net ×1.22 → park+wind fits his pull power.
Recent form · last 5
Barrel 7% · EV 87 · 1 HR over his last 5.
Matchup-Fit · barrel alignment vs Casey Legumina’s arsenal
4-Seam 54% usedbarrels 12% · allows 4% · 5 HR
Change 20% usedbarrels 4% · allows 0%
Sinker 13% usedbarrels 0% · allows —
Sweeper 12% usedbarrels 0% · allows —
Air / Park
Pulls 14% in the air; pull side RF — park ×1.18 × wind out to RF (9 mph) ×1.03 → net ×1.22 → park+wind fits his pull power.
Recent form · last 5
Barrel 7% · EV 87 · 1 HR over his last 5.
Matchup-Fit · barrel alignment vs Cam Booser’s arsenal
Sweeper 47% usedbarrels 0% · allows —
4-Seam 41% usedbarrels 20% · allows — · 1 HR
Cutter 12% usedbarrels 0% · allows —
Air / Park
Pulls 14% in the air; pull side RF — park ×1.18 × wind out to RF (9 mph) ×1.03 → net ×1.22 → park+wind fits his pull power.
Recent form · last 5
Barrel 7% · EV 87 · 1 HR over his last 5.
Matchup-Fit · barrel alignment vs Bryan Baker’s arsenal
4-Seam 48% usedbarrels 12% · allows 8% · 5 HR
Change 41% usedbarrels 4% · allows 0%
Slider 11% usedbarrels 18% · allows —
Air / Park
Pulls 14% in the air; pull side RF — park ×1.18 × wind out to RF (9 mph) ×1.03 → net ×1.22 → park+wind fits his pull power.
Recent form · last 5
Barrel 7% · EV 87 · 1 HR over his last 5.
Matchup-Fit · barrel alignment vs Kevin Kelly’s arsenal
Sinker 53% usedbarrels 0% · allows 14%
Change 15% usedbarrels 4% · allows 0%
4-Seam 13% usedbarrels 12% · allows — · 5 HR
Cutter 13% usedbarrels 7% · allows —
Sweeper 7% usedbarrels 0% · allows —
Air / Park
Pulls 14% in the air; pull side RF — park ×1.18 × wind out to RF (9 mph) ×1.03 → net ×1.22 → park+wind fits his pull power.
Recent form · last 5
Barrel 7% · EV 87 · 1 HR over his last 5.
Matchup-Fit · barrel alignment vs Garrett Cleavinger’s arsenal
Sinker 48% usedbarrels 0% · allows 0% · 1 HR
Sweeper 34% usedbarrels 0% · allows —
Slider 15% usedbarrels 0% · allows —
Air / Park
Pulls 14% in the air; pull side RF — park ×1.18 × wind out to RF (9 mph) ×1.03 → net ×1.22 → park+wind fits his pull power.
Recent form · last 5
Barrel 7% · EV 87 · 1 HR over his last 5.
Matchup-Fit · barrel alignment vs Griffin Jax’s arsenal
Change 31% usedbarrels 4% · allows 0%
Sweeper 29% usedbarrels 0% · allows 0%
4-Seam 24% usedbarrels 12% · allows 15% · 5 HR
Cutter 7% usedbarrels 7% · allows 12%
Curve 5% usedbarrels 12% · allows — · 2 HR
Air / Park
Pulls 14% in the air; pull side RF — park ×1.18 × wind out to RF (9 mph) ×1.03 → net ×1.22 → park+wind fits his pull power.
Recent form · last 5
Barrel 7% · EV 87 · 1 HR over his last 5.
Matchup Lab
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Batter Stats
Last 5 games · H/AB · K · GB · FB · barrel · EV · HR/FB · HR
| H/AB | K | GB | FB | BRL | EV | HR/FB | HR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5G | 3/19 | 4 | 33% | 33% | 7% | 87 | 20% | 1 |
| 06/14 | 1/4 | 1 | 33% | 33% | 33% | 91 | 100% | 1 |
| 06/13 | 0/5 | 1 | 50% | 50% | 0% | 85 | 0% | 0 |
| 06/12 | 0/3 | 2 | 0% | 100% | 0% | 74 | 0% | 0 |
| 06/11 | 1/3 | 0 | 33% | 0% | 0% | 94 | — | 0 |
| 06/10 | 1/4 | 0 | 25% | 25% | 0% | 83 | 0% | 0 |
Swing & Bat Tracking (606 swings)
bat tracking
Bat speed70.2 mph
Swing length6.7 ft
Attack angle7.7°
contact
swing timing
Early15%
On-time69%
Late15%
miss profile
Over8%
Under30%
Tied-up7%
Centered65%
Flailed27%
Batter power & contact · longer + greener = more HR-likely
vs LHP · 3 HR in 106 PA
vs RHP · 9 HR in 243 PA
Matchup strength · longer + greener = more HR-favorable
matchup strength
supporting
Home / Away HR splits · season-to-date
Home HOME5 HR / 142 PA · 3.5%
Home · .409 SLG
Away AWAY6 HR / 161 PA · 3.7%
Away · .533 SLG
Park fit · spray vs this yard
Pulls 14% of contact in the air; his pull side is RF here — HR factor ×1.18 → neutral park fit.
Pitcher
Nick Martinez • RHP (TB)TB @ LAD | vs LAD6/2 W–L (Tied–21st) • 2.43 ERA (7th) • 44 Ks • 1.16 WHIP (32nd)1.0 HR/9 • 14% Barrel • 25% FB • 15% K • 2.43 ERA (H 3.02 / A 1.75)▬ Holding steady1.12hittability
Nick Martinez • RHP (TB)
TB @ LAD | vs LAD
6/2 W–L (Tied–21st) • 2.43 ERA (7th) • 44 Ks • 1.16 WHIP (32nd)
1.0 HR/9 • 14% Barrel • 25% FB • 15% K • 2.43 ERA (H 3.02 / A 1.75)
▬ Holding steady
1.12
hittability
Last 3 starts · IP / pitches / HR
▬ Holding steady No big change in his home-run risk lately.
06/09 7.0 IP · 73 P0 HR
06/03 4.0 IP · 58 P2 HR
05/29 7.0 IP · 88 P0 HR
Pitches to target · go-deep pitches
The pitches he's given up the most homers on — and the bats most likely to punish them.
vs lefty bats4-seam · cutter
Most likely to capitalize: Muncy 29%, Freeman 28%, Rushing 25%
vs righty batscutter · sinker
Most likely to capitalize: Pages 26%, Betts 18%
HR hittability vs a league-average hitter · longer + greener = easier to take deep
vs LHB · 0.9 HR/9 · 5 HR in 222 PA
vs RHB · 1.2 HR/9 · 5 HR in 158 PA
Pitch mix · stuff · HR rating · swing-and-miss · contact
spin 12:55
spin 2:18
spin 12:42
spin 12:56
spin 6:31
spin 12:55
spin 2:18
spin 12:42
spin 12:56
spin 6:31
spin 12:55
spin 2:18
spin 12:42
spin 12:56
spin 6:31
Where he’s hittable · xSLG allowed by zone (vs LHB)
Green = he gives up slug there. Tap a band → out/mid/in cells → each pitch’s xSLG + a cyan contact-allowed bar. Cell splits use 2025–26; display only.
Splits · home/away & batter hand
| HR/9 | HR | Barrel | FB% | K% | ERA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 0.65 | 3 | — | — | 15% | 3.02 |
| Away | 0.75 | 3 | — | — | 12% | 1.75 |
| vs LHB | 0.95 | 5 | 14% | 25% | 16% | — |
| vs RHB | 1.20 | 5 | 13% | 24% | 15% | — |
HR = home runs allowed (season-to-date). ERA isn’t reported by batter hand, and barrel/FB% aren’t available by home/away — those cells show —.
Pitcher summary · vs LHB
Nick Martinez carries a 1.03 HR/9 and gave up 0 in his last outing (2 over his last 3). Lefties have taken him deep 5 of 9 times (0.6 HR/9 to LHB). LAD ranks 5th in HR factor for LH hitters.
Craig Kimbrel • RHP (TB)TB @ LAD | vs LAD0/2 W–L • 5.82 ERA • 18 Ks • 1.59 WHIP1.2 HR/9 • 14% Barrel • 27% FB • 22% K • 5.82 ERA (H 7.71 / A 5.11)◐ Homer-prone on the year, quieter last 30.98hittability
Craig Kimbrel • RHP (TB)
TB @ LAD | vs LAD
0/2 W–L • 5.82 ERA • 18 Ks • 1.59 WHIP
1.2 HR/9 • 14% Barrel • 27% FB • 22% K • 5.82 ERA (H 7.71 / A 5.11)
◐ Homer-prone on the year, quieter last 3
0.98
hittability
Last 3 games · IP / pitches / HR
◐ Homer-prone on the year, quieter last 3 Homer-prone over the full season — the quiet recent stretch is a small sample the model discounts.
06/14 0.1 IP · 18 P0 HR
06/13 0.2 IP · 17 P0 HR
05/26 1.0 IP · 15 P0 HR
Pitches to target · go-deep pitches
The pitches he's given up the most homers on — and the bats most likely to punish them.
vs lefty bats4-seam
Most likely to capitalize: Muncy 29%, Freeman 28%, Rushing 25%
vs righty batsno clear target
Most likely to capitalize: Pages 26%, Betts 18%
HR hittability vs a league-average hitter · longer + greener = easier to take deep
vs LHB · 1.3 HR/9 · 2 HR in 50 PA
vs RHB · 1.1 HR/9 · 1 HR in 43 PA
Pitch mix · stuff · HR rating · swing-and-miss · contact
Splits · home/away & batter hand
| HR/9 | HR | Barrel | FB% | K% | ERA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.93 | 1 | — | — | 37% | 7.71 |
| Away | 1.46 | 2 | — | — | 19% | 5.11 |
| vs LHB | 1.32 | 2 | 15% | 26% | 19% | — |
| vs RHB | 1.09 | 1 | 14% | 24% | 25% | — |
HR = home runs allowed (season-to-date). ERA isn’t reported by batter hand, and barrel/FB% aren’t available by home/away — those cells show —.
Pitcher summary · vs LHB
Craig Kimbrel carries a 1.22 HR/9. He owns a 5.11 ERA on the road. LAD ranks 5th in HR factor for LH hitters.
Ian Seymour • LHP (TB)TB @ LAD | vs LAD3/0 W–L • 4.93 ERA • 41 Ks • 1.28 WHIP1.2 HR/9 • 11% Barrel • 29% FB • 24% K • 4.93 ERA (H 2.95 / A 7.41)▬ Holding steady0.93hittability
Ian Seymour • LHP (TB)
TB @ LAD | vs LAD
3/0 W–L • 4.93 ERA • 41 Ks • 1.28 WHIP
1.2 HR/9 • 11% Barrel • 29% FB • 24% K • 4.93 ERA (H 2.95 / A 7.41)
▬ Holding steady
0.93
hittability
Last 3 outings · IP / pitches / HR
▬ Holding steady No big change in his home-run risk lately.
06/14 3.1 IP · 72 P bulk1 HR
06/08 4.0 IP · 55 P1 HR
06/02 2.0 IP · 40 P relief1 HR
Pitches to target · go-deep pitches
The pitches he's given up the most homers on — and the bats most likely to punish them.
vs lefty bats4-seam · sweeper
Most likely to capitalize: Muncy 29%, Freeman 28%, Rushing 25%
vs righty batssinker
Most likely to capitalize: Pages 26%, Betts 18%, Freeland 8%
HR hittability vs a league-average hitter · longer + greener = easier to take deep
vs LHB · 1.6 HR/9 · 4 HR in 79 PA
vs RHB · 0.9 HR/9 · 2 HR in 111 PA
Pitch mix · stuff · HR rating · swing-and-miss · contact
Splits · home/away & batter hand
| HR/9 | HR | Barrel | FB% | K% | ERA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.27 | 3 | — | — | 24% | 2.95 |
| Away | 1.59 | 3 | — | — | 26% | 7.41 |
| vs LHB | 1.56 | 4 | 12% | 29% | 27% | — |
| vs RHB | 0.90 | 2 | 11% | 25% | 21% | — |
HR = home runs allowed (season-to-date). ERA isn’t reported by batter hand, and barrel/FB% aren’t available by home/away — those cells show —.
Pitcher summary · vs LHB
Ian Seymour carries a 1.20 HR/9 and gave up 1 in his last outing (3 over his last 3). Lefties have taken him deep 3 of 5 times (2.2 HR/9 to LHB). He owns a 7.41 ERA on the road. LAD ranks 5th in HR factor for LH hitters.
Cole Sulser • RHP (TB)TB @ LAD | vs LAD1/0 W–L • 6.49 ERA • 25 Ks • 1.78 WHIP1.4 HR/9 • 15% Barrel • 25% FB • 20% K • 6.49 ERA (H 6.94 / A 6.14)▬ Holding steady0.91hittability
Cole Sulser • RHP (TB)
TB @ LAD | vs LAD
1/0 W–L • 6.49 ERA • 25 Ks • 1.78 WHIP
1.4 HR/9 • 15% Barrel • 25% FB • 20% K • 6.49 ERA (H 6.94 / A 6.14)
▬ Holding steady
0.91
hittability
Last 3 games · IP / pitches / HR
▬ Holding steady No big change in his home-run risk lately.
06/13 0.2 IP · 39 P1 HR
06/10 0.1 IP · 18 P1 HR
06/07 1.0 IP · 15 P0 HR
Pitches to target · go-deep pitches
The pitches he's given up the most homers on — and the bats most likely to punish them.
vs lefty batsno clear target
Most likely to capitalize: Muncy 29%, Freeman 28%, Rushing 25%
vs righty batscutter · 4-seam
Most likely to capitalize: Pages 26%, Betts 18%
HR hittability vs a league-average hitter · longer + greener = easier to take deep
vs LHB · 0.6 HR/9 · 0 HR in 85 PA
vs RHB · 2.2 HR/9 · 6 HR in 68 PA
Pitch mix · stuff · HR rating · swing-and-miss · contact
Splits · home/away & batter hand
| HR/9 | HR | Barrel | FB% | K% | ERA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.54 | 2 | — | — | 17% | 6.94 |
| Away | 1.23 | 2 | — | — | 22% | 6.14 |
| vs LHB | 0.58 | 0 | 13% | 25% | 21% | — |
| vs RHB | 2.19 | 6 | 16% | 24% | 20% | — |
HR = home runs allowed (season-to-date). ERA isn’t reported by batter hand, and barrel/FB% aren’t available by home/away — those cells show —.
Pitcher summary · vs LHB
Cole Sulser carries a 1.41 HR/9 and gave up 1 in his last outing (2 over his last 3). He owns a 6.14 ERA on the road. LAD ranks 5th in HR factor for LH hitters.
Casey Legumina • RHP (TB)TB @ LAD | vs LAD2/1 W–L • 3.19 ERA • 23 Ks • 1.26 WHIP0.9 HR/9 • 15% Barrel • 22% FB • 19% K • 3.19 ERA (H 3.20 / A 3.18)▬ Holding steady0.89hittability
Casey Legumina • RHP (TB)
TB @ LAD | vs LAD
2/1 W–L • 3.19 ERA • 23 Ks • 1.26 WHIP
0.9 HR/9 • 15% Barrel • 22% FB • 19% K • 3.19 ERA (H 3.20 / A 3.18)
▬ Holding steady
0.89
hittability
Last 3 outings · IP / pitches / HR
▬ Holding steady No big change in his home-run risk lately.
06/14 1.2 IP · 28 P0 HR
06/10 0.1 IP · 2 P relief0 HR
06/08 1.1 IP · 12 P relief0 HR
Pitches to target · go-deep pitches
The pitches he's given up the most homers on — and the bats most likely to punish them.
vs lefty batsno clear target
Most likely to capitalize: Muncy 29%, Freeman 28%, Rushing 25%
vs righty batsslider · sweeper
Most likely to capitalize: Pages 26%, Betts 18%
HR hittability vs a league-average hitter · longer + greener = easier to take deep
vs LHB · 0.9 HR/9 · 1 HR in 68 PA
vs RHB · 1.1 HR/9 · 2 HR in 79 PA
Pitch mix · stuff · HR rating · swing-and-miss · contact
Splits · home/away & batter hand
| HR/9 | HR | Barrel | FB% | K% | ERA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 0.92 | 2 | — | — | 17% | 3.20 |
| Away | 0.00 | 0 | — | — | 20% | 3.18 |
| vs LHB | 0.91 | 1 | 14% | 25% | 23% | — |
| vs RHB | 1.08 | 2 | 16% | 21% | 17% | — |
HR = home runs allowed (season-to-date). ERA isn’t reported by batter hand, and barrel/FB% aren’t available by home/away — those cells show —.
Pitcher summary · vs LHB
Casey Legumina carries a 0.90 HR/9. LAD ranks 5th in HR factor for LH hitters.
Cam Booser • LHP (TB)TB @ LAD | vs LAD0/0 W–L • 0.00 ERA • 7 Ks • 0.94 WHIP0.7 HR/9 • 11% Barrel • 22% FB • 26% K • 0.00 ERA (H 0.00 / A 0.00)▬ Holding steady0.84hittability
Cam Booser • LHP (TB)
TB @ LAD | vs LAD
0/0 W–L • 0.00 ERA • 7 Ks • 0.94 WHIP
0.7 HR/9 • 11% Barrel • 22% FB • 26% K • 0.00 ERA (H 0.00 / A 0.00)
▬ Holding steady
0.84
hittability
Last 3 games · IP / pitches / HR
▬ Holding steady No big change in his home-run risk lately.
06/13 1.1 IP · 24 P0 HR
06/08 1.0 IP · 10 P0 HR
06/05 1.0 IP · 20 P0 HR
Not enough data for this view.
HR hittability vs a league-average hitter · longer + greener = easier to take deep
vs LHB · 1.0 HR/9 · 0 HR in 18 PA
vs RHB · 0.9 HR/9 · 0 HR in 22 PA
Pitch mix · stuff · HR rating · swing-and-miss · contact
Splits · home/away & batter hand
| HR/9 | HR | Barrel | FB% | K% | ERA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 0.00 | 0 | — | — | 20% | 0.00 |
| Away | 0.00 | 0 | — | — | 50% | 0.00 |
| vs LHB | 0.98 | 0 | 13% | 22% | 27% | — |
| vs RHB | 0.94 | 0 | 12% | 24% | 22% | — |
HR = home runs allowed (season-to-date). ERA isn’t reported by batter hand, and barrel/FB% aren’t available by home/away — those cells show —.
Pitcher summary · vs LHB
Cam Booser carries a 0.72 HR/9. LAD ranks 5th in HR factor for LH hitters.
Bryan Baker • RHP (TB)TB @ LAD | vs LAD1/0 W–L • 1.91 ERA • 32 Ks • 0.95 WHIP0.6 HR/9 • 13% Barrel • 16% FB • 25% K • 1.91 ERA (H 2.20 / A 1.50)◐ Homer-prone on the year, quieter last 30.78hittability
Bryan Baker • RHP (TB)
TB @ LAD | vs LAD
1/0 W–L • 1.91 ERA • 32 Ks • 0.95 WHIP
0.6 HR/9 • 13% Barrel • 16% FB • 25% K • 1.91 ERA (H 2.20 / A 1.50)
◐ Homer-prone on the year, quieter last 3
0.78
hittability
Last 3 games · IP / pitches / HR
◐ Homer-prone on the year, quieter last 3 Homer-prone over the full season — the quiet recent stretch is a small sample the model discounts.
06/14 1.0 IP · 14 P0 HR
06/09 1.0 IP · 13 P0 HR
06/08 1.0 IP · 12 P0 HR
Pitches to target · go-deep pitches
The pitches he's given up the most homers on — and the bats most likely to punish them.
vs lefty batsno clear target
Most likely to capitalize: Muncy 29%, Freeman 28%, Rushing 25%
vs righty batsslider
Most likely to capitalize: Pages 26%, Betts 18%
HR hittability vs a league-average hitter · longer + greener = easier to take deep
vs LHB · 0.7 HR/9 · 0 HR in 66 PA
vs RHB · 0.9 HR/9 · 1 HR in 66 PA
Pitch mix · stuff · HR rating · swing-and-miss · contact
Splits · home/away & batter hand
| HR/9 | HR | Barrel | FB% | K% | ERA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 0.55 | 1 | — | — | 25% | 2.20 |
| Away | 0.00 | 0 | — | — | 32% | 1.50 |
| vs LHB | 0.66 | 0 | 11% | 21% | 22% | — |
| vs RHB | 0.92 | 1 | 16% | 17% | 25% | — |
HR = home runs allowed (season-to-date). ERA isn’t reported by batter hand, and barrel/FB% aren’t available by home/away — those cells show —.
Pitcher summary · vs LHB
Bryan Baker carries a 0.57 HR/9. LAD ranks 5th in HR factor for LH hitters.
Kevin Kelly • RHP (TB)TB @ LAD | vs LAD4/2 W–L (Tied–59th) • 2.27 ERA • 25 Ks • 0.82 WHIP1.0 HR/9 • 10% Barrel • 17% FB • 20% K • 2.27 ERA (H 0.00 / A 4.80)◐ Homer-prone on the year, quieter last 30.77hittability
Kevin Kelly • RHP (TB)
TB @ LAD | vs LAD
4/2 W–L (Tied–59th) • 2.27 ERA • 25 Ks • 0.82 WHIP
1.0 HR/9 • 10% Barrel • 17% FB • 20% K • 2.27 ERA (H 0.00 / A 4.80)
◐ Homer-prone on the year, quieter last 3
0.77
hittability
Last 3 games · IP / pitches / HR
◐ Homer-prone on the year, quieter last 3 Homer-prone over the full season — the quiet recent stretch is a small sample the model discounts.
06/14 2.0 IP · 22 P0 HR
06/09 1.0 IP · 6 P0 HR
06/08 0.2 IP · 16 P0 HR
Pitches to target · go-deep pitches
The pitches he's given up the most homers on — and the bats most likely to punish them.
vs lefty batsno clear target
Most likely to capitalize: Muncy 29%, Freeman 28%, Rushing 25%
vs righty batssweeper
Most likely to capitalize: Pages 26%, Betts 18%
HR hittability vs a league-average hitter · longer + greener = easier to take deep
vs LHB · 1.0 HR/9 · 1 HR in 56 PA
vs RHB · 1.1 HR/9 · 2 HR in 78 PA
Pitch mix · stuff · HR rating · swing-and-miss · contact
Splits · home/away & batter hand
| HR/9 | HR | Barrel | FB% | K% | ERA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 0.00 | 0 | — | — | 19% | 0.00 |
| Away | 1.20 | 2 | — | — | 23% | 4.80 |
| vs LHB | 0.99 | 1 | 12% | 18% | 16% | — |
| vs RHB | 1.09 | 2 | 12% | 21% | 23% | — |
HR = home runs allowed (season-to-date). ERA isn’t reported by batter hand, and barrel/FB% aren’t available by home/away — those cells show —.
Pitcher summary · vs LHB
Kevin Kelly carries a 0.96 HR/9. LAD ranks 5th in HR factor for LH hitters.
Garrett Cleavinger • LHP (TB)TB @ LAD | vs LAD1/2 W–L • 5.51 ERA • 24 Ks • 1.47 WHIP1.0 HR/9 • 14% Barrel • 21% FB • 28% K • 5.51 ERA (H 4.05 / A 6.52)▲ Easier to take deep lately0.68hittability
Garrett Cleavinger • LHP (TB)
TB @ LAD | vs LAD
1/2 W–L • 5.51 ERA • 24 Ks • 1.47 WHIP
1.0 HR/9 • 14% Barrel • 21% FB • 28% K • 5.51 ERA (H 4.05 / A 6.52)
▲ Easier to take deep lately
0.68
hittability
Last 3 games · IP / pitches / HR
▲ Easier to take deep lately This pitcher is trending toward giving up home runs.
06/14 0.2 IP · 9 P0 HR
06/13 0.1 IP · 10 P0 HR
06/10 1.0 IP · 23 P1 HR
Pitches to target · go-deep pitches
The pitches he's given up the most homers on — and the bats most likely to punish them.
vs lefty batsno clear target
Most likely to capitalize: Muncy 29%, Freeman 28%, Rushing 25%
vs righty batsslider
Most likely to capitalize: Pages 26%, Betts 18%, Freeland 8%
HR hittability vs a league-average hitter · longer + greener = easier to take deep
vs LHB · 0.8 HR/9 · 0 HR in 36 PA
vs RHB · 1.3 HR/9 · 2 HR in 51 PA
Pitch mix · stuff · HR rating · swing-and-miss · contact
Splits · home/away & batter hand
| HR/9 | HR | Barrel | FB% | K% | ERA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.70 | 2 | — | — | 28% | 4.05 |
| Away | 0.00 | 0 | — | — | 36% | 6.52 |
| vs LHB | 0.83 | 0 | 13% | 20% | 26% | — |
| vs RHB | 1.31 | 2 | 15% | 24% | 26% | — |
HR = home runs allowed (season-to-date). ERA isn’t reported by batter hand, and barrel/FB% aren’t available by home/away — those cells show —.
Pitcher summary · vs LHB
Garrett Cleavinger carries a 1.01 HR/9 and gave up 0 in his last outing (1 over his last 3). He owns a 6.52 ERA on the road. LAD ranks 5th in HR factor for LH hitters.
Griffin Jax • RHP (TB)TB @ LAD | vs LAD1/5 W–L • 3.68 ERA • 41 Ks • 1.36 WHIP1.3 HR/9 • 15% Barrel • 23% FB • 22% K • 3.68 ERA (H 4.86 / A 2.96)▬ Holding steady0.65hittability
Griffin Jax • RHP (TB)
TB @ LAD | vs LAD
1/5 W–L • 3.68 ERA • 41 Ks • 1.36 WHIP
1.3 HR/9 • 15% Barrel • 23% FB • 22% K • 3.68 ERA (H 4.86 / A 2.96)
▬ Holding steady
0.65
hittability
Last 3 starts · IP / pitches / HR
▬ Holding steady No big change in his home-run risk lately.
06/13 5.0 IP · 63 P0 HR
06/07 5.0 IP · 62 P0 HR
06/01 4.0 IP · 72 P3 HR
Pitches to target · go-deep pitches
The pitches he's given up the most homers on — and the bats most likely to punish them.
vs lefty bats4-seam · cutter
Most likely to capitalize: Muncy 29%, Freeman 28%, Rushing 25%
vs righty bats4-seam
Most likely to capitalize: Pages 26%, Betts 18%
HR hittability vs a league-average hitter · longer + greener = easier to take deep
vs LHB · 1.3 HR/9 · 4 HR in 106 PA
vs RHB · 1.3 HR/9 · 3 HR in 85 PA
Pitch mix · stuff · HR rating · swing-and-miss · contact
Splits · home/away & batter hand
| HR/9 | HR | Barrel | FB% | K% | ERA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.70 | 5 | — | — | 32% | 4.86 |
| Away | 0.66 | 2 | — | — | 17% | 2.96 |
| vs LHB | 1.33 | 4 | 15% | 22% | 21% | — |
| vs RHB | 1.27 | 3 | 14% | 24% | 24% | — |
HR = home runs allowed (season-to-date). ERA isn’t reported by batter hand, and barrel/FB% aren’t available by home/away — those cells show —.
Pitcher summary · vs LHB
Griffin Jax carries a 1.35 HR/9 and gave up 0 in his last outing (3 over his last 3). Lefties have taken him deep 4 of 7 times (1.5 HR/9 to LHB). LAD ranks 5th in HR factor for LH hitters.
Pick who he’ll face
Matchup vs Nick MartinezC
Arms like Nick Martinez
Most similar arsenals (velocity, movement, mix): Brandon Woodruff, Michael Lorenzen, Michael Wacha, Cal Quantrill, Merrill Kelly, Mason Englert.
vs arms like this (since 2025), 2 HR in 25 PA (8.0% · league ~3%).
Matchup vs Craig KimbrelA · ×1.23
Arms like Craig Kimbrel
Most similar arsenals (velocity, movement, mix): Joe Ryan, AJ Blubaugh, Tony Santillan, Didier Fuentes, Cade Smith, Isaac Mattson.
vs arms like this (since 2025), 2 HR in 23 PA (8.7% · league ~3%).
Matchup vs Ian SeymourB · ×1.06
Arms like Ian Seymour
Most similar arsenals (velocity, movement, mix): Jovani Morán, Eduardo Rodriguez, Tyler Alexander, Brandon Williamson, Martín Pérez, Parker Messick.
vs arms like this (since 2025), 0 HR in 45 PA (0.0% · league ~3%).
Matchup vs Cole SulserA · ×1.13
Arms like Cole Sulser
Most similar arsenals (velocity, movement, mix): Connor Brogdon, Chris Paddack, Luke Weaver, Albert Suárez, Burch Smith, Paxton Schultz.
vs arms like this (since 2025), 0 HR in 20 PA (0.0% · league ~3%).
Matchup vs Casey LeguminaA · ×1.15
Arms like Casey Legumina
Most similar arsenals (velocity, movement, mix): Bryan Woo, Will Warren, Grant Anderson, Emerson Hancock, Yoendrys Gómez, Mitch Keller.
vs arms like this (since 2025), 1 HR in 21 PA (4.8% · league ~3%).
Matchup vs Cam BooserA · ×1.13
Arms like Cam Booser
Most similar arsenals (velocity, movement, mix): Dietrich Enns, Bryan Hudson, Bryan King, Garrett Crochet, Jalen Beeks, Andrew Nardi.
vs arms like this (since 2025), 3 HR in 34 PA (8.8% · league ~3%).
Matchup vs Bryan BakerA · ×1.16
Arms like Bryan Baker
Most similar arsenals (velocity, movement, mix): Luis Gil, Hunter Bigge, Luke Weaver, Jordan Leasure, Ryne Nelson, Enyel De Los Santos.
vs arms like this (since 2025), 0 HR in 25 PA (0.0% · league ~3%).
Matchup vs Kevin KellyC · ×0.95
Arms like Kevin Kelly
Most similar arsenals (velocity, movement, mix): Cooper Criswell, Justin Topa, Logan Webb, Clay Holmes, Chris Bassitt, Landen Roupp.
vs arms like this (since 2025), 1 HR in 49 PA (2.0% · league ~3%).
Matchup vs Garrett CleavingerA · ×1.14
Arms like Garrett Cleavinger
Most similar arsenals (velocity, movement, mix): Gregory Soto, Erik Miller, Ryan Borucki, Adrian Morejon, Anthony Banda, Carlos Rodón.
vs arms like this (since 2025), 1 HR in 21 PA (4.8% · league ~3%).
Matchup vs Griffin JaxB · ×1.05
Arms like Griffin Jax
Most similar arsenals (velocity, movement, mix): Orion Kerkering, Dustin May, Anthony Nunez, Kai-Wei Teng, Brandon Pfaadt, Calvin Faucher.
vs arms like this (since 2025), 0 HR in 39 PA (0.0% · league ~3%).
Michael Busch LCHC HOME vs Michael Lorenzen R · CHCwind 1.06park 0.97brl 15%recent 15% HOT28%MatchupA++259
Michael Busch L
CHC HOME vs Michael Lorenzen R · CHC
wind 1.06park 0.97brl 15%recent 15% HOT
28%
MatchupA+
+259
Michael Busch L
CHC HOME vs Michael Lorenzen R · CHC
wind 1.06park 0.97brl 15%recent 15% HOT
28%
Matchup summary · vs Michael Lorenzen
Batter Summary 📈 Trending up
Busch has 6 of his 8 HRs off RHP, 42% hard-hit that side. 4 of his 8 HRs have come at home, slugging .480 there. Busch has been hot against arms like this lately. Wind is blowing out to his pull side.
Form Last ~3 weeks (recency-weighted): .465 xwOBAcon (lg .372), 15% well-hit (lg 14%), 51% hard-hit · 3 HR in 65 PA. Recent contact quality is beating league — the rating catches the heat before the HR totals show it.
Ranking Reasoning
Strong HR spot.
A homer-prone starter, he's vulnerable to lefties (2.6 HR/9) and the park favors LH power.
A homer-prone starter, he's vulnerable to lefties (2.6 HR/9) and the park favors LH power.
🏟️ Homered here 21× at this park (since ’25)
⚾ vs Lorenzen (career): 0/2 AB | 0 HR | 1K
Pitch by Pitch
Pitch-by-pitch · Lorenzen throws / Busch hits
Stuff & usage = the arm’s; whiff / contact / EV / barrel / air-ground / HR = Busch’s 2026 vs RHP · green = bat’s edge
ChangeSt 6126% used
Whiff
39%
Contact
61%
EV
85
Barrel
6%
Air/Gnd
18/65
HR
0
17 BBE
4-SeamSt 4625% used
Whiff
13%
Contact
87%
EV
92
Barrel
6%
Air/Gnd
35/30
HR
3
66 BBE
CurveSt 3215% used
Whiff
52%
Contact
48%
EV
94
Barrel
0%
Air/Gnd
0/67
HR
0
3 BBE
CutterSt 4814% used
Whiff
2%
Contact
98%
EV
92
Barrel
8%
Air/Gnd
33/33
HR
1
12 BBE
SinkerSt 4211% used
Whiff
23%
Contact
77%
EV
89
Barrel
16%
Air/Gnd
26/47
HR
1
19 BBE
SliderSt 137% used
Whiff
45%
Contact
55%
EV
87
Barrel
11%
Air/Gnd
22/56
HR
1
9 BBE
Pitch-by-pitch · Agnos throws / Busch hits
Stuff & usage = the arm’s; whiff / contact / EV / barrel / air-ground / HR = Busch’s 2026 vs RHP · green = bat’s edge
4-Seam—29% used
Whiff
13%
Contact
87%
EV
92
Barrel
6%
Air/Gnd
35/30
HR
3
66 BBE
Cutter—28% used
Whiff
2%
Contact
98%
EV
92
Barrel
8%
Air/Gnd
33/33
HR
1
12 BBE
Splitter—23% used
Whiff
45%
Contact
55%
EV
78
Barrel
0%
Air/Gnd
33/33
HR
0
3 BBE
Sweeper—9% used
Whiff
38%
Contact
62%
EV
70
Barrel
0%
Air/Gnd
40/60
HR
0
5 BBE
Slider—7% used
Whiff
45%
Contact
55%
EV
87
Barrel
11%
Air/Gnd
22/56
HR
1
9 BBE
Sinker—4% used
Whiff
23%
Contact
77%
EV
89
Barrel
16%
Air/Gnd
26/47
HR
1
19 BBE
Pitch-by-pitch · Castaño throws / Busch hits
Stuff & usage = the arm’s; whiff / contact / EV / barrel / air-ground / HR = Busch’s 2026 vs RHP · green = bat’s edge
Sinker—31% used
Whiff
23%
Contact
77%
EV
89
Barrel
16%
Air/Gnd
26/47
HR
1
19 BBE
Cutter—26% used
Whiff
2%
Contact
98%
EV
92
Barrel
8%
Air/Gnd
33/33
HR
1
12 BBE
Change—22% used
Whiff
39%
Contact
61%
EV
85
Barrel
6%
Air/Gnd
18/65
HR
0
17 BBE
Sweeper—15% used
Whiff
38%
Contact
62%
EV
70
Barrel
0%
Air/Gnd
40/60
HR
0
5 BBE
4-Seam—6% used
Whiff
13%
Contact
87%
EV
92
Barrel
6%
Air/Gnd
35/30
HR
3
66 BBE
Pitch-by-pitch · Senzatela throws / Busch hits
Stuff & usage = the arm’s; whiff / contact / EV / barrel / air-ground / HR = Busch’s 2026 vs RHP · green = bat’s edge
4-Seam—55% used
Whiff
13%
Contact
87%
EV
92
Barrel
6%
Air/Gnd
35/30
HR
3
66 BBE
Curve—17% used
Whiff
52%
Contact
48%
EV
94
Barrel
0%
Air/Gnd
0/67
HR
0
3 BBE
Change—14% used
Whiff
39%
Contact
61%
EV
85
Barrel
6%
Air/Gnd
18/65
HR
0
17 BBE
Slider—7% used
Whiff
45%
Contact
55%
EV
87
Barrel
11%
Air/Gnd
22/56
HR
1
9 BBE
Cutter—6% used
Whiff
2%
Contact
98%
EV
92
Barrel
8%
Air/Gnd
33/33
HR
1
12 BBE
Pitch-by-pitch · Mejia throws / Busch hits
Stuff & usage = the arm’s; whiff / contact / EV / barrel / air-ground / HR = Busch’s 2026 vs RHP · green = bat’s edge
4-Seam—69% used
Whiff
13%
Contact
87%
EV
92
Barrel
6%
Air/Gnd
35/30
HR
3
66 BBE
Sweeper—27% used
Whiff
38%
Contact
62%
EV
70
Barrel
0%
Air/Gnd
40/60
HR
0
5 BBE
Pitch-by-pitch · Vodnik throws / Busch hits
Stuff & usage = the arm’s; whiff / contact / EV / barrel / air-ground / HR = Busch’s 2026 vs RHP · green = bat’s edge
4-Seam—54% used
Whiff
13%
Contact
87%
EV
92
Barrel
6%
Air/Gnd
35/30
HR
3
66 BBE
Change—38% used
Whiff
39%
Contact
61%
EV
85
Barrel
6%
Air/Gnd
18/65
HR
0
17 BBE
Slider—6% used
Whiff
45%
Contact
55%
EV
87
Barrel
11%
Air/Gnd
22/56
HR
1
9 BBE
Pitch-by-pitch · Bernardino throws / Busch hits
Stuff & usage = the arm’s; whiff / contact / EV / barrel / air-ground / HR = Busch’s 2026 vs LHP · green = bat’s edge
Sinker—57% used
Whiff
12%
Contact
88%
EV
86
Barrel
10%
Air/Gnd
25/60
HR
1
20 BBE
Curve—34% used
Whiff
—
Contact
—
EV
—
Barrel
—
Air/Gnd
—
HR
—
thin 2026
Pitch-by-pitch · Hill throws / Busch hits
Stuff & usage = the arm’s; whiff / contact / EV / barrel / air-ground / HR = Busch’s 2026 vs RHP · green = bat’s edge
Change—35% used
Whiff
39%
Contact
61%
EV
85
Barrel
6%
Air/Gnd
18/65
HR
0
17 BBE
4-Seam—30% used
Whiff
13%
Contact
87%
EV
92
Barrel
6%
Air/Gnd
35/30
HR
3
66 BBE
Sinker—18% used
Whiff
23%
Contact
77%
EV
89
Barrel
16%
Air/Gnd
26/47
HR
1
19 BBE
Slider—17% used
Whiff
45%
Contact
55%
EV
87
Barrel
11%
Air/Gnd
22/56
HR
1
9 BBE
Pitch-by-pitch · Halvorsen throws / Busch hits
Stuff & usage = the arm’s; whiff / contact / EV / barrel / air-ground / HR = Busch’s 2026 vs RHP · green = bat’s edge
4-Seam—61% used
Whiff
13%
Contact
87%
EV
92
Barrel
6%
Air/Gnd
35/30
HR
3
66 BBE
Splitter—28% used
Whiff
45%
Contact
55%
EV
78
Barrel
0%
Air/Gnd
33/33
HR
0
3 BBE
Slider—11% used
Whiff
45%
Contact
55%
EV
87
Barrel
11%
Air/Gnd
22/56
HR
1
9 BBE
🎯 Target
Matchup-Fit · barrel alignment vs Michael Lorenzen’s arsenal
Change 26% usedbarrels 6% · allows 7%
4-Seam 25% usedbarrels 6% · allows 19% · 3 HR
Curve 15% usedbarrels — · allows 8%
Cutter 14% usedbarrels 8% · allows 5% · 1 HR
Sinker 11% usedbarrels 16% · allows 0% · 1 HR
Air / Park
Pulls 16% in the air; pull side RF — park ×1.24 × wind out to RF (10 mph) ×1.03 → net ×1.28 → park+wind fits his pull power.
Recent form · last 5
Barrel 13% · EV 93 · 1 HR over his last 5.
Matchup-Fit · barrel alignment vs Zach Agnos’s arsenal
4-Seam 29% usedbarrels 6% · allows 6% · 3 HR
Cutter 28% usedbarrels 8% · allows 9% · 1 HR
Splitter 23% usedbarrels — · allows 0%
Sweeper 9% usedbarrels 0% · allows —
Slider 7% usedbarrels 11% · allows — · 1 HR
Air / Park
Pulls 16% in the air; pull side RF — park ×1.24 × wind out to RF (10 mph) ×1.03 → net ×1.28 → park+wind fits his pull power.
Recent form · last 5
Barrel 13% · EV 93 · 1 HR over his last 5.
Matchup-Fit · barrel alignment vs Blas Castaño’s arsenal
Sinker 31% usedbarrels 16% · allows 0% · 1 HR
Cutter 26% usedbarrels 8% · allows — · 1 HR
Change 22% usedbarrels 6% · allows —
Sweeper 15% usedbarrels 0% · allows —
4-Seam 6% usedbarrels 6% · allows — · 3 HR
Air / Park
Pulls 16% in the air; pull side RF — park ×1.24 × wind out to RF (10 mph) ×1.03 → net ×1.28 → park+wind fits his pull power.
Recent form · last 5
Barrel 13% · EV 93 · 1 HR over his last 5.
Matchup-Fit · barrel alignment vs Antonio Senzatela’s arsenal
4-Seam 55% usedbarrels 6% · allows 12% · 3 HR
Curve 17% usedbarrels — · allows —
Change 14% usedbarrels 6% · allows 12%
Slider 7% usedbarrels 11% · allows — · 1 HR
Cutter 6% usedbarrels 8% · allows 0% · 1 HR
Air / Park
Pulls 16% in the air; pull side RF — park ×1.24 × wind out to RF (10 mph) ×1.03 → net ×1.28 → park+wind fits his pull power.
Recent form · last 5
Barrel 13% · EV 93 · 1 HR over his last 5.
Matchup-Fit · barrel alignment vs Juan Mejia’s arsenal
4-Seam 69% usedbarrels 6% · allows 6% · 3 HR
Sweeper 27% usedbarrels 0% · allows 8%
Air / Park
Pulls 16% in the air; pull side RF — park ×1.24 × wind out to RF (10 mph) ×1.03 → net ×1.28 → park+wind fits his pull power.
Recent form · last 5
Barrel 13% · EV 93 · 1 HR over his last 5.
Matchup-Fit · barrel alignment vs Victor Vodnik’s arsenal
4-Seam 54% usedbarrels 6% · allows 0% · 3 HR
Change 38% usedbarrels 6% · allows 8%
Slider 6% usedbarrels 11% · allows — · 1 HR
Air / Park
Pulls 16% in the air; pull side RF — park ×1.24 × wind out to RF (10 mph) ×1.03 → net ×1.28 → park+wind fits his pull power.
Recent form · last 5
Barrel 13% · EV 93 · 1 HR over his last 5.
Matchup-Fit · barrel alignment vs Brennan Bernardino’s arsenal
Sinker 57% usedbarrels 10% · allows 4% · 1 HR
Curve 34% usedbarrels — · allows 7%
Air / Park
Pulls 16% in the air; pull side RF — park ×1.24 × wind out to RF (10 mph) ×1.03 → net ×1.28 → park+wind fits his pull power.
Recent form · last 5
Barrel 13% · EV 93 · 1 HR over his last 5.
Matchup-Fit · barrel alignment vs Jaden Hill’s arsenal
Change 35% usedbarrels 6% · allows 0%
4-Seam 30% usedbarrels 6% · allows 0% · 3 HR
Sinker 18% usedbarrels 16% · allows 0% · 1 HR
Slider 17% usedbarrels 11% · allows 14% · 1 HR
Air / Park
Pulls 16% in the air; pull side RF — park ×1.24 × wind out to RF (10 mph) ×1.03 → net ×1.28 → park+wind fits his pull power.
Recent form · last 5
Barrel 13% · EV 93 · 1 HR over his last 5.
Matchup-Fit · barrel alignment vs Seth Halvorsen’s arsenal
4-Seam 61% usedbarrels 6% · allows 0% · 3 HR
Splitter 28% usedbarrels — · allows —
Slider 11% usedbarrels 11% · allows — · 1 HR
Air / Park
Pulls 16% in the air; pull side RF — park ×1.24 × wind out to RF (10 mph) ×1.03 → net ×1.28 → park+wind fits his pull power.
Recent form · last 5
Barrel 13% · EV 93 · 1 HR over his last 5.
Matchup Lab
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Batter Stats
Last 5 games · H/AB · K · GB · FB · barrel · EV · HR/FB · HR
| H/AB | K | GB | FB | BRL | EV | HR/FB | HR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5G | 6/18 | 3 | 27% | 33% | 13% | 93 | 20% | 1 |
| 06/14 | 1/4 | 1 | 0% | 33% | 0% | 92 | 0% | 0 |
| 06/13 | 1/3 | 0 | 33% | 67% | 33% | 90 | 0% | 0 |
| 06/12 | 1/3 | 1 | 50% | 50% | 50% | 86 | 100% | 1 |
| 06/11 | 2/4 | 0 | 25% | 0% | 0% | 99 | — | 0 |
| 06/10 | 1/4 | 1 | 33% | 33% | 0% | 93 | 0% | 0 |
Swing & Bat Tracking (506 swings)
bat tracking
Bat speed68.2 mph
Swing length7.0 ft
Attack angle16.4°
contact
swing timing
Early19%
On-time67%
Late14%
miss profile
Over23%
Under19%
Tied-up8%
Centered69%
Flailed24%
Batter power & contact · longer + greener = more HR-likely
vs LHP · 2 HR in 103 PA
vs RHP · 7 HR in 257 PA
Matchup strength · longer + greener = more HR-favorable
matchup strength
supporting
Home / Away HR splits · season-to-date
Home HOME4 HR / 148 PA · 2.7%
Home · .480 SLG
Away AWAY4 HR / 165 PA · 2.4%
Away · .348 SLG
Park fit · spray vs this yard
Pulls 16% of contact in the air; his pull side is RF here — HR factor ×1.24 → park fits his pull power.
Pitcher
Michael Lorenzen • RHP (COL)COL @ CHC | vs CHC2/8 W–L • 7.54 ERA • 55 Ks (Tied–90th) • 1.90 WHIP1.5 HR/9 • 15% Barrel • 23% FB • 17% K • 7.54 ERA (H 8.44 / A 6.68)◐ Homer-prone on the year, quieter last 30.95hittability
Michael Lorenzen • RHP (COL)
COL @ CHC | vs CHC
2/8 W–L • 7.54 ERA • 55 Ks (Tied–90th) • 1.90 WHIP
1.5 HR/9 • 15% Barrel • 23% FB • 17% K • 7.54 ERA (H 8.44 / A 6.68)
◐ Homer-prone on the year, quieter last 3
0.95
hittability
Last 3 starts · IP / pitches / HR
◐ Homer-prone on the year, quieter last 3 Homer-prone over the full season — the quiet recent stretch is a small sample the model discounts.
06/10 5.0 IP · 84 P0 HR
06/03 3.1 IP · 85 P1 HR
05/29 3.2 IP · 70 P0 HR
Pitches to target · go-deep pitches
The pitches he's given up the most homers on — and the bats most likely to punish them.
vs lefty bats4-seam · curve
Most likely to capitalize: Crow-Armstrong 29%, Busch 28%, Happ 27%
vs righty batsslider · change
Most likely to capitalize: Suzuki 26%, Swanson 12%, Bregman 9%
HR hittability vs a league-average hitter · longer + greener = easier to take deep
vs LHB · 1.9 HR/9 · 10 HR in 173 PA
vs RHB · 1.1 HR/9 · 5 HR in 185 PA
Pitch mix · stuff · HR rating · swing-and-miss · contact
spin 2:03
spin 1:27
spin 1:34
spin 1:01
spin 6:55
spin 9:51
spin 7:59
spin 2:03
spin 1:27
spin 1:34
spin 1:01
spin 6:55
spin 9:51
spin 7:59
spin 2:03
spin 1:27
spin 1:34
spin 1:01
spin 6:55
spin 9:51
spin 7:59
Where he’s hittable · xSLG allowed by zone (vs LHB)
Green = he gives up slug there. Tap a band → out/mid/in cells → each pitch’s xSLG + a cyan contact-allowed bar. Cell splits use 2025–26; display only.
Splits · home/away & batter hand
| HR/9 | HR | Barrel | FB% | K% | ERA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.41 | 5 | — | — | 16% | 8.44 |
| Away | 1.60 | 6 | — | — | 19% | 6.68 |
| vs LHB | 1.88 | 10 | 18% | 27% | 19% | — |
| vs RHB | 1.08 | 5 | 13% | 20% | 18% | — |
HR = home runs allowed (season-to-date). ERA isn’t reported by batter hand, and barrel/FB% aren’t available by home/away — those cells show —.
Pitcher summary · vs LHB
Michael Lorenzen carries a 1.54 HR/9 and gave up 0 in his last outing (1 over his last 3). Lefties have taken him deep 10 of 15 times (2.6 HR/9 to LHB). He owns a 6.68 ERA on the road. CHC ranks 2nd in HR factor for LH hitters.
Zach Agnos • RHP (COL)COL @ CHC | vs CHC0/2 W–L • 7.80 ERA • 30 Ks • 1.66 WHIP1.4 HR/9 • 16% Barrel • 29% FB • 17% K • 7.80 ERA (H 8.14 / A 7.36)▬ Holding steady1.23hittability
Zach Agnos • RHP (COL)
COL @ CHC | vs CHC
0/2 W–L • 7.80 ERA • 30 Ks • 1.66 WHIP
1.4 HR/9 • 16% Barrel • 29% FB • 17% K • 7.80 ERA (H 8.14 / A 7.36)
▬ Holding steady
1.23
hittability
Last 3 outings · IP / pitches / HR
▬ Holding steady No big change in his home-run risk lately.
06/12 2.2 IP · 60 P relief0 HR
06/06 3.0 IP · 57 P2 HR
05/31 1.0 IP · 35 P relief1 HR
Pitches to target · go-deep pitches
The pitches he's given up the most homers on — and the bats most likely to punish them.
vs lefty batscutter · 4-seam
Most likely to capitalize: Crow-Armstrong 29%, Busch 28%, Happ 27%
vs righty bats4-seam
Most likely to capitalize: Suzuki 26%, Swanson 12%, Bregman 9%
HR hittability vs a league-average hitter · longer + greener = easier to take deep
vs LHB · 1.4 HR/9 · 4 HR in 98 PA
vs RHB · 1.4 HR/9 · 5 HR in 128 PA
Pitch mix · stuff · HR rating · swing-and-miss · contact
Splits · home/away & batter hand
| HR/9 | HR | Barrel | FB% | K% | ERA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.22 | 6 | — | — | 13% | 8.14 |
| Away | 0.98 | 2 | — | — | 17% | 7.36 |
| vs LHB | 1.39 | 4 | 17% | 30% | 20% | — |
| vs RHB | 1.37 | 5 | 14% | 25% | 15% | — |
HR = home runs allowed (season-to-date). ERA isn’t reported by batter hand, and barrel/FB% aren’t available by home/away — those cells show —.
Pitcher summary · vs LHB
Zach Agnos carries a 1.45 HR/9 and gave up 0 in his last outing (3 over his last 3). Lefties have taken him deep 4 of 9 times (1.3 HR/9 to LHB). He owns a 7.36 ERA on the road. CHC ranks 2nd in HR factor for LH hitters.
Blas Castaño • RHP (COL)COL @ CHC | vs CHC0/0 W–L • 4.19 ERA • 16 Ks • 1.45 WHIP1.9 HR/9 • 15% Barrel • 23% FB • 20% K • 4.19 ERA (H 5.59 / A 2.79)▲ Easier to take deep lately1.11hittability
Blas Castaño • RHP (COL)
COL @ CHC | vs CHC
0/0 W–L • 4.19 ERA • 16 Ks • 1.45 WHIP
1.9 HR/9 • 15% Barrel • 23% FB • 20% K • 4.19 ERA (H 5.59 / A 2.79)
▲ Easier to take deep lately
1.11
hittability
Last 3 games · IP / pitches / HR
▲ Easier to take deep lately This pitcher is trending toward giving up home runs.
06/14 1.0 IP · 20 P1 HR
06/11 2.2 IP · 46 P1 HR
06/06 2.2 IP · 46 P0 HR
Pitches to target · go-deep pitches
The pitches he's given up the most homers on — and the bats most likely to punish them.
vs lefty batscutter · sinker
Most likely to capitalize: Crow-Armstrong 29%, Busch 28%, Happ 27%
vs righty batssweeper
Most likely to capitalize: Suzuki 26%, Swanson 12%, Bregman 9%
HR hittability vs a league-average hitter · longer + greener = easier to take deep
vs LHB · 2.0 HR/9 · 4 HR in 43 PA
vs RHB · 1.1 HR/9 · 1 HR in 38 PA
Pitch mix · stuff · HR rating · swing-and-miss · contact
Splits · home/away & batter hand
| HR/9 | HR | Barrel | FB% | K% | ERA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.79 | 3 | — | — | 20% | 5.59 |
| Away | 0.93 | 1 | — | — | 19% | 2.79 |
| vs LHB | 2.02 | 4 | 15% | 22% | 15% | — |
| vs RHB | 1.14 | 1 | 14% | 25% | 27% | — |
HR = home runs allowed (season-to-date). ERA isn’t reported by batter hand, and barrel/FB% aren’t available by home/away — those cells show —.
Pitcher summary · vs LHB
Blas Castaño carries a 1.86 HR/9 and gave up 1 in his last outing (2 over his last 3). Lefties have taken him deep 4 of 5 times (3.2 HR/9 to LHB). CHC ranks 2nd in HR factor for LH hitters.
Antonio Senzatela • RHP (COL)COL @ CHC | vs CHC6/0 W–L (Tied–21st) • 2.11 ERA • 32 Ks • 1.02 WHIP1.0 HR/9 • 12% Barrel • 27% FB • 21% K • 2.11 ERA (H 3.50 / A 0.89)▲ Easier to take deep lately0.96hittability
Antonio Senzatela • RHP (COL)
COL @ CHC | vs CHC
6/0 W–L (Tied–21st) • 2.11 ERA • 32 Ks • 1.02 WHIP
1.0 HR/9 • 12% Barrel • 27% FB • 21% K • 2.11 ERA (H 3.50 / A 0.89)
▲ Easier to take deep lately
0.96
hittability
Last 3 games · IP / pitches / HR
▲ Easier to take deep lately This pitcher is trending toward giving up home runs.
06/10 1.0 IP · 14 P1 HR
06/09 1.0 IP · 22 P0 HR
06/05 1.2 IP · 39 P0 HR
Pitches to target · go-deep pitches
The pitches he's given up the most homers on — and the bats most likely to punish them.
vs lefty batscutter
Most likely to capitalize: Crow-Armstrong 29%, Busch 28%, Happ 27%
vs righty batscutter
Most likely to capitalize: Suzuki 26%, Swanson 12%, Bregman 9%
HR hittability vs a league-average hitter · longer + greener = easier to take deep
vs LHB · 1.1 HR/9 · 2 HR in 76 PA
vs RHB · 1.0 HR/9 · 2 HR in 95 PA
Pitch mix · stuff · HR rating · swing-and-miss · contact
Splits · home/away & batter hand
| HR/9 | HR | Barrel | FB% | K% | ERA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 0.50 | 1 | — | — | 21% | 3.50 |
| Away | 0.89 | 2 | — | — | 22% | 0.89 |
| vs LHB | 1.10 | 2 | 14% | 29% | 22% | — |
| vs RHB | 0.98 | 2 | 12% | 22% | 20% | — |
HR = home runs allowed (season-to-date). ERA isn’t reported by batter hand, and barrel/FB% aren’t available by home/away — those cells show —.
Pitcher summary · vs LHB
Antonio Senzatela carries a 0.97 HR/9 and gave up 1 in his last outing. CHC ranks 2nd in HR factor for LH hitters.
Juan Mejia • RHP (COL)COL @ CHC | vs CHC1/5 W–L • 5.97 ERA • 36 Ks • 1.67 WHIP0.7 HR/9 • 12% Barrel • 25% FB • 25% K • 5.97 ERA (H 5.94 / A 6.00)▬ Holding steady0.80hittability
Juan Mejia • RHP (COL)
COL @ CHC | vs CHC
1/5 W–L • 5.97 ERA • 36 Ks • 1.67 WHIP
0.7 HR/9 • 12% Barrel • 25% FB • 25% K • 5.97 ERA (H 5.94 / A 6.00)
▬ Holding steady
0.80
hittability
Last 3 games · IP / pitches / HR
▬ Holding steady No big change in his home-run risk lately.
06/13 1.1 IP · 18 P0 HR
06/10 1.0 IP · 10 P0 HR
06/06 1.0 IP · 19 P0 HR
Not enough data for this view.
HR hittability vs a league-average hitter · longer + greener = easier to take deep
vs LHB · 1.1 HR/9 · 2 HR in 72 PA
vs RHB · 0.6 HR/9 · 0 HR in 88 PA
Pitch mix · stuff · HR rating · swing-and-miss · contact
Splits · home/away & batter hand
| HR/9 | HR | Barrel | FB% | K% | ERA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 0.54 | 1 | — | — | 26% | 5.94 |
| Away | 0.60 | 1 | — | — | 22% | 6.00 |
| vs LHB | 1.13 | 2 | 14% | 27% | 25% | — |
| vs RHB | 0.57 | 0 | 12% | 22% | 23% | — |
HR = home runs allowed (season-to-date). ERA isn’t reported by batter hand, and barrel/FB% aren’t available by home/away — those cells show —.
Pitcher summary · vs LHB
Juan Mejia carries a 0.67 HR/9. He owns a 6.00 ERA on the road. CHC ranks 2nd in HR factor for LH hitters.
Victor Vodnik • RHP (COL)COL @ CHC | vs CHC1/2 W–L • 8.00 ERA • 16 Ks • 2.11 WHIP1.3 HR/9 • 10% Barrel • 20% FB • 19% K • 8.00 ERA (H 13.50 / A 4.76)▼ Tougher to homer off lately0.77hittability
Victor Vodnik • RHP (COL)
COL @ CHC | vs CHC
1/2 W–L • 8.00 ERA • 16 Ks • 2.11 WHIP
1.3 HR/9 • 10% Barrel • 20% FB • 19% K • 8.00 ERA (H 13.50 / A 4.76)
▼ Tougher to homer off lately
0.77
hittability
Last 3 games · IP / pitches / HR
▼ Tougher to homer off lately This pitcher is trending the right way — fewer homers.
05/18 0.0 IP · 14 P0 HR
05/17 1.0 IP · 11 P0 HR
05/14 0.2 IP · 16 P0 HR
Pitches to target · go-deep pitches
The pitches he's given up the most homers on — and the bats most likely to punish them.
vs lefty batschange
Most likely to capitalize: Crow-Armstrong 29%, Busch 28%, Happ 27%
vs righty batsno clear target
Most likely to capitalize: Suzuki 26%, Swanson 12%, Bregman 9%
HR hittability vs a league-average hitter · longer + greener = easier to take deep
vs LHB · 1.6 HR/9 · 3 HR in 51 PA
vs RHB · 1.0 HR/9 · 1 HR in 61 PA
Pitch mix · stuff · HR rating · swing-and-miss · contact
Splits · home/away & batter hand
| HR/9 | HR | Barrel | FB% | K% | ERA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.35 | 1 | — | — | 22% | 13.50 |
| Away | 0.79 | 1 | — | — | 15% | 4.76 |
| vs LHB | 1.60 | 3 | 13% | 22% | 22% | — |
| vs RHB | 0.95 | 1 | 10% | 21% | 18% | — |
HR = home runs allowed (season-to-date). ERA isn’t reported by batter hand, and barrel/FB% aren’t available by home/away — those cells show —.
Pitcher summary · vs LHB
Victor Vodnik carries a 1.30 HR/9. CHC ranks 2nd in HR factor for LH hitters.
Brennan Bernardino • LHP (COL)COL @ CHC | vs CHC2/3 W–L • 4.18 ERA • 22 Ks • 1.29 WHIP0.7 HR/9 • 12% Barrel • 18% FB • 20% K • 4.18 ERA (H 3.86 / A 4.50)▬ Holding steady0.77hittability
Brennan Bernardino • LHP (COL)
COL @ CHC | vs CHC
2/3 W–L • 4.18 ERA • 22 Ks • 1.29 WHIP
0.7 HR/9 • 12% Barrel • 18% FB • 20% K • 4.18 ERA (H 3.86 / A 4.50)
▬ Holding steady
0.77
hittability
Last 3 games · IP / pitches / HR
▬ Holding steady No big change in his home-run risk lately.
06/12 0.2 IP · 9 P0 HR
06/10 1.0 IP · 15 P0 HR
06/09 1.0 IP · 11 P0 HR
Pitches to target · go-deep pitches
The pitches he's given up the most homers on — and the bats most likely to punish them.
vs lefty batsno clear target
Most likely to capitalize: Crow-Armstrong 29%, Busch 28%, Ballesteros 12%
vs righty batscutter
Most likely to capitalize: Happ 27%, Suzuki 26%, Swanson 12%
HR hittability vs a league-average hitter · longer + greener = easier to take deep
vs LHB · 0.9 HR/9 · 1 HR in 72 PA
vs RHB · 0.9 HR/9 · 1 HR in 71 PA
Pitch mix · stuff · HR rating · swing-and-miss · contact
Splits · home/away & batter hand
| HR/9 | HR | Barrel | FB% | K% | ERA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.29 | 2 | — | — | 20% | 3.86 |
| Away | 0.00 | 0 | — | — | 16% | 4.50 |
| vs LHB | 0.88 | 1 | 14% | 20% | 24% | — |
| vs RHB | 0.89 | 1 | 11% | 20% | 17% | — |
HR = home runs allowed (season-to-date). ERA isn’t reported by batter hand, and barrel/FB% aren’t available by home/away — those cells show —.
Pitcher summary · vs LHB
Brennan Bernardino carries a 0.73 HR/9. CHC ranks 2nd in HR factor for LH hitters.
Jaden Hill • RHP (COL)COL @ CHC | vs CHC0/2 W–L • 5.32 ERA • 25 Ks • 1.73 WHIP0.9 HR/9 • 13% Barrel • 21% FB • 23% K • 5.32 ERA (H 5.54 / A 5.06)▲ Easier to take deep lately0.77hittability
Jaden Hill • RHP (COL)
COL @ CHC | vs CHC
0/2 W–L • 5.32 ERA • 25 Ks • 1.73 WHIP
0.9 HR/9 • 13% Barrel • 21% FB • 23% K • 5.32 ERA (H 5.54 / A 5.06)
▲ Easier to take deep lately
0.77
hittability
Last 3 games · IP / pitches / HR
▲ Easier to take deep lately This pitcher is trending toward giving up home runs.
06/13 0.1 IP · 16 P0 HR
06/09 1.0 IP · 14 P0 HR
06/07 0.1 IP · 22 P1 HR
Pitches to target · go-deep pitches
The pitches he's given up the most homers on — and the bats most likely to punish them.
vs lefty bats4-seam
Most likely to capitalize: Crow-Armstrong 29%, Busch 28%, Happ 27%
vs righty batssinker · slider
Most likely to capitalize: Suzuki 26%, Swanson 12%, Bregman 9%
HR hittability vs a league-average hitter · longer + greener = easier to take deep
vs LHB · 0.9 HR/9 · 1 HR in 75 PA
vs RHB · 1.2 HR/9 · 2 HR in 64 PA
Pitch mix · stuff · HR rating · swing-and-miss · contact
Splits · home/away & batter hand
| HR/9 | HR | Barrel | FB% | K% | ERA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.38 | 2 | — | — | 28% | 5.54 |
| Away | 0.00 | 0 | — | — | 15% | 5.06 |
| vs LHB | 0.86 | 1 | 13% | 23% | 22% | — |
| vs RHB | 1.19 | 2 | 14% | 22% | 23% | — |
HR = home runs allowed (season-to-date). ERA isn’t reported by batter hand, and barrel/FB% aren’t available by home/away — those cells show —.
Pitcher summary · vs LHB
Jaden Hill carries a 0.93 HR/9 and gave up 0 in his last outing (1 over his last 3). He owns a 5.06 ERA on the road. CHC ranks 2nd in HR factor for LH hitters.
Seth Halvorsen • RHP (COL)COL @ CHC | vs CHC0/0 W–L • 3.31 ERA • 16 Ks • 1.65 WHIP1.0 HR/9 • 17% Barrel • 22% FB • 19% K • 3.31 ERA (H 1.23 / A 5.00)▲ Easier to take deep lately0.73hittability
Seth Halvorsen • RHP (COL)
COL @ CHC | vs CHC
0/0 W–L • 3.31 ERA • 16 Ks • 1.65 WHIP
1.0 HR/9 • 17% Barrel • 22% FB • 19% K • 3.31 ERA (H 1.23 / A 5.00)
▲ Easier to take deep lately
0.73
hittability
Last 3 games · IP / pitches / HR
▲ Easier to take deep lately This pitcher is trending toward giving up home runs.
06/13 0.2 IP · 25 P0 HR
06/12 0.2 IP · 22 P2 HR
06/09 1.0 IP · 14 P0 HR
Not enough data for this view.
HR hittability vs a league-average hitter · longer + greener = easier to take deep
vs LHB · 1.1 HR/9 · 1 HR in 38 PA
vs RHB · 1.0 HR/9 · 1 HR in 55 PA
Pitch mix · stuff · HR rating · swing-and-miss · contact
Splits · home/away & batter hand
| HR/9 | HR | Barrel | FB% | K% | ERA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 0.00 | 0 | — | — | 24% | 1.23 |
| Away | 2.00 | 2 | — | — | 18% | 5.00 |
| vs LHB | 1.14 | 1 | 18% | 24% | 21% | — |
| vs RHB | 0.99 | 1 | 14% | 22% | 19% | — |
HR = home runs allowed (season-to-date). ERA isn’t reported by batter hand, and barrel/FB% aren’t available by home/away — those cells show —.
Pitcher summary · vs LHB
Seth Halvorsen carries a 0.97 HR/9 and gave up 0 in his last outing (2 over his last 3). He owns a 5.00 ERA on the road. CHC ranks 2nd in HR factor for LH hitters.
Pick who he’ll face
Matchup vs Michael LorenzenA+
Arms like Michael Lorenzen
Most similar arsenals (velocity, movement, mix): JR Ritchie, Stephen Kolek, Michael McGreevy, Merrill Kelly, Brandon Pfaadt, Slade Cecconi.
vs arms like this (since 2025), 3 HR in 36 PA (8.3% · league ~3%).
Matchup vs Zach AgnosA · ×1.12
Arms like Zach Agnos
Most similar arsenals (velocity, movement, mix): Cole Winn, Luis Severino, Colin Rea, Zack Wheeler, Tomoyuki Sugano, Zack Kelly.
vs arms like this (since 2025), 1 HR in 20 PA (5.0% · league ~3%).
Matchup vs Blas CastañoA · ×1.13
Matchup vs Antonio SenzatelaA · ×1.10
Arms like Antonio Senzatela
Most similar arsenals (velocity, movement, mix): Ryne Nelson, Spencer Strider, Freddy Peralta, Victor Vodnik, Max Scherzer, Didier Fuentes.
vs arms like this (since 2025), 3 HR in 43 PA (7.0% · league ~3%).
Matchup vs Juan MejiaB · ×1.07
Arms like Juan Mejia
Most similar arsenals (velocity, movement, mix): Matt Festa, Connor Phillips, Shohei Ohtani, Ryan Weiss, Kai-Wei Teng, Paul Sewald.
vs arms like this (since 2025), 0 HR in 15 PA (0.0% · league ~3%).
Matchup vs Victor VodnikB · ×1.03
Arms like Victor Vodnik
Most similar arsenals (velocity, movement, mix): Bubba Chandler, Juan Morillo, Luis Gil, Robert Suarez, Antonio Senzatela, Bryan Baker.
vs arms like this (since 2025), 4 HR in 34 PA (11.8% · league ~3%).
Matchup vs Brennan BernardinoA · ×1.17
Arms like Brennan Bernardino
Most similar arsenals (velocity, movement, mix): Joe Mantiply, Justin Bruihl, John King, Ranger Suarez, Aaron Bummer, Brant Hurter.
vs arms like this (since 2025), 1 HR in 25 PA (4.0% · league ~3%).
Matchup vs Jaden HillB · ×1.07
Arms like Jaden Hill
Most similar arsenals (velocity, movement, mix): Rhett Lowder, George Soriano, Alex Lange, Luis Medina, Taylor Clarke, Max Meyer.
vs arms like this (since 2025), 1 HR in 13 PA (7.7% · league ~3%).
Matchup vs Seth HalvorsenB · ×1.05
Arms like Seth Halvorsen
Most similar arsenals (velocity, movement, mix): Ryne Stanek, Didier Fuentes, Jeff Hoffman, Victor Vodnik, Michael Petersen, Joe Boyle.
vs arms like this (since 2025), 0 HR in 24 PA (0.0% · league ~3%).
Brandon Lowe LPIT AWAY vs J.T. Ginn R · ATHwind 1.07park 0.93brl 17%recent 21% HOT28%MatchupB+259
Brandon Lowe L
PIT AWAY vs J.T. Ginn R · ATH
wind 1.07park 0.93brl 17%recent 21% HOT
28%
MatchupB
+259
Brandon Lowe L
PIT AWAY vs J.T. Ginn R · ATH
wind 1.07park 0.93brl 17%recent 21% HOT
28%
Matchup summary · vs J.T. Ginn
Batter Summary 📈 Trending up
Lowe has 13 of his 17 HRs off RHP, 45% hard-hit that side. 9 of his 17 HRs have come on the road, slugging .606 there. Lowe has been hot against arms like this lately.
Form Last ~3 weeks (recency-weighted): .528 xwOBAcon (lg .372), 21% well-hit (lg 14%), 59% hard-hit · 2 HR in 56 PA. Recent contact quality is beating league — the rating catches the heat before the HR totals show it.
Ranking Reasoning
Strong HR spot.
His fastball is flattening, big power vs RHP (17% barrels) and hot against this kind of arsenal.
His fastball is flattening, big power vs RHP (17% barrels) and hot against this kind of arsenal.
🏟️ Homered here 2× at this park (since ’25)
⚾ vs Ginn (career): 1/2 AB | 1 HR | 0K
Pitch by Pitch
Pitch-by-pitch · Ginn throws / Lowe hits
Stuff & usage = the arm’s; whiff / contact / EV / barrel / air-ground / HR = Lowe’s 2026 vs RHP · green = bat’s edge
SinkerSt 1232% used
Whiff
21%
Contact
79%
EV
92
Barrel
0%
Air/Gnd
27/36
HR
0
11 BBE
CutterSt 3323% used
Whiff
21%
Contact
79%
EV
90
Barrel
0%
Air/Gnd
21/50
HR
1
14 BBE
ChangeSt 3122% used
Whiff
29%
Contact
71%
EV
89
Barrel
12%
Air/Gnd
25/33
HR
2
24 BBE
SliderSt 4214% used
Whiff
39%
Contact
61%
EV
93
Barrel
7%
Air/Gnd
36/29
HR
1
14 BBE
4-SeamSt 39% used
Whiff
30%
Contact
70%
EV
94
Barrel
15%
Air/Gnd
39/18
HR
7
33 BBE
Pitch-by-pitch · Barnett throws / Lowe hits
Stuff & usage = the arm’s; whiff / contact / EV / barrel / air-ground / HR = Lowe’s 2026 vs RHP · green = bat’s edge
4-Seam—56% used
Whiff
30%
Contact
70%
EV
94
Barrel
15%
Air/Gnd
39/18
HR
7
33 BBE
Curve—17% used
Whiff
32%
Contact
68%
EV
89
Barrel
12%
Air/Gnd
38/38
HR
1
8 BBE
Change—16% used
Whiff
29%
Contact
71%
EV
89
Barrel
12%
Air/Gnd
25/33
HR
2
24 BBE
Sweeper—10% used
Whiff
30%
Contact
70%
EV
96
Barrel
0%
Air/Gnd
50/25
HR
0
4 BBE
Pitch-by-pitch · Sterner throws / Lowe hits
Stuff & usage = the arm’s; whiff / contact / EV / barrel / air-ground / HR = Lowe’s 2026 vs RHP · green = bat’s edge
4-Seam—51% used
Whiff
30%
Contact
70%
EV
94
Barrel
15%
Air/Gnd
39/18
HR
7
33 BBE
Cutter—31% used
Whiff
21%
Contact
79%
EV
90
Barrel
0%
Air/Gnd
21/50
HR
1
14 BBE
Sweeper—18% used
Whiff
30%
Contact
70%
EV
96
Barrel
0%
Air/Gnd
50/25
HR
0
4 BBE
Pitch-by-pitch · Barlow throws / Lowe hits
Stuff & usage = the arm’s; whiff / contact / EV / barrel / air-ground / HR = Lowe’s 2026 vs RHP · green = bat’s edge
Curve—29% used
Whiff
32%
Contact
68%
EV
89
Barrel
12%
Air/Gnd
38/38
HR
1
8 BBE
4-Seam—23% used
Whiff
30%
Contact
70%
EV
94
Barrel
15%
Air/Gnd
39/18
HR
7
33 BBE
Sweeper—22% used
Whiff
30%
Contact
70%
EV
96
Barrel
0%
Air/Gnd
50/25
HR
0
4 BBE
Sinker—15% used
Whiff
21%
Contact
79%
EV
92
Barrel
0%
Air/Gnd
27/36
HR
0
11 BBE
Slider—11% used
Whiff
39%
Contact
61%
EV
93
Barrel
7%
Air/Gnd
36/29
HR
1
14 BBE
Pitch-by-pitch · Alvarado throws / Lowe hits
Stuff & usage = the arm’s; whiff / contact / EV / barrel / air-ground / HR = Lowe’s 2026 vs RHP · green = bat’s edge
4-Seam—54% used
Whiff
30%
Contact
70%
EV
94
Barrel
15%
Air/Gnd
39/18
HR
7
33 BBE
Slider—23% used
Whiff
39%
Contact
61%
EV
93
Barrel
7%
Air/Gnd
36/29
HR
1
14 BBE
Sinker—14% used
Whiff
21%
Contact
79%
EV
92
Barrel
0%
Air/Gnd
27/36
HR
0
11 BBE
Change—6% used
Whiff
29%
Contact
71%
EV
89
Barrel
12%
Air/Gnd
25/33
HR
2
24 BBE
Pitch-by-pitch · Medina throws / Lowe hits
Stuff & usage = the arm’s; whiff / contact / EV / barrel / air-ground / HR = Lowe’s 2026 vs RHP · green = bat’s edge
4-Seam—40% used
Whiff
30%
Contact
70%
EV
94
Barrel
15%
Air/Gnd
39/18
HR
7
33 BBE
Change—26% used
Whiff
29%
Contact
71%
EV
89
Barrel
12%
Air/Gnd
25/33
HR
2
24 BBE
Sinker—20% used
Whiff
21%
Contact
79%
EV
92
Barrel
0%
Air/Gnd
27/36
HR
0
11 BBE
Curve—8% used
Whiff
32%
Contact
68%
EV
89
Barrel
12%
Air/Gnd
38/38
HR
1
8 BBE
Slider—7% used
Whiff
39%
Contact
61%
EV
93
Barrel
7%
Air/Gnd
36/29
HR
1
14 BBE
Pitch-by-pitch · Perkins throws / Lowe hits
Stuff & usage = the arm’s; whiff / contact / EV / barrel / air-ground / HR = Lowe’s 2026 vs RHP · green = bat’s edge
4-Seam—38% used
Whiff
30%
Contact
70%
EV
94
Barrel
15%
Air/Gnd
39/18
HR
7
33 BBE
Sweeper—27% used
Whiff
30%
Contact
70%
EV
96
Barrel
0%
Air/Gnd
50/25
HR
0
4 BBE
Change—21% used
Whiff
29%
Contact
71%
EV
89
Barrel
12%
Air/Gnd
25/33
HR
2
24 BBE
Cutter—13% used
Whiff
21%
Contact
79%
EV
90
Barrel
0%
Air/Gnd
21/50
HR
1
14 BBE
Pitch-by-pitch · Harris throws / Lowe hits
Stuff & usage = the arm’s; whiff / contact / EV / barrel / air-ground / HR = Lowe’s 2026 vs LHP · green = bat’s edge
4-Seam—60% used
Whiff
33%
Contact
67%
EV
91
Barrel
25%
Air/Gnd
50/25
HR
1
4 BBE
Curve—21% used
Whiff
43%
Contact
57%
EV
94
Barrel
0%
Air/Gnd
25/50
HR
0
4 BBE
Slider—13% used
Whiff
42%
Contact
58%
EV
86
Barrel
8%
Air/Gnd
31/31
HR
1
13 BBE
Sweeper—4% used
Whiff
42%
Contact
58%
EV
88
Barrel
0%
Air/Gnd
44/44
HR
1
9 BBE
Pitch-by-pitch · Jr. throws / Lowe hits
Stuff & usage = the arm’s; whiff / contact / EV / barrel / air-ground / HR = Lowe’s 2026 vs RHP · green = bat’s edge
Splitter—38% used
Whiff
31%
Contact
69%
EV
84
Barrel
9%
Air/Gnd
27/45
HR
0
11 BBE
Sinker—28% used
Whiff
21%
Contact
79%
EV
92
Barrel
0%
Air/Gnd
27/36
HR
0
11 BBE
Curve—22% used
Whiff
32%
Contact
68%
EV
89
Barrel
12%
Air/Gnd
38/38
HR
1
8 BBE
Cutter—8% used
Whiff
21%
Contact
79%
EV
90
Barrel
0%
Air/Gnd
21/50
HR
1
14 BBE
4-Seam—5% used
Whiff
30%
Contact
70%
EV
94
Barrel
15%
Air/Gnd
39/18
HR
7
33 BBE
Pitch-by-pitch · Suarez throws / Lowe hits
Stuff & usage = the arm’s; whiff / contact / EV / barrel / air-ground / HR = Lowe’s 2026 vs LHP · green = bat’s edge
4-Seam—31% used
Whiff
33%
Contact
67%
EV
91
Barrel
25%
Air/Gnd
50/25
HR
1
4 BBE
Slider—30% used
Whiff
42%
Contact
58%
EV
86
Barrel
8%
Air/Gnd
31/31
HR
1
13 BBE
Sinker—21% used
Whiff
16%
Contact
84%
EV
89
Barrel
0%
Air/Gnd
14/57
HR
0
14 BBE
Change—17% used
Whiff
80%
Contact
20%
EV
—
Barrel
—
Air/Gnd
—
HR
—
thin 2026
🎯 Target
Matchup-Fit · barrel alignment vs J.T. Ginn’s arsenal
Sinker 32% usedbarrels 0% · allows 8%
Cutter 23% usedbarrels 0% · allows 13% · 1 HR
Change 22% usedbarrels 12% · allows 0% · 2 HR
Slider 14% usedbarrels 7% · allows 0% · 1 HR
4-Seam 9% usedbarrels 15% · allows 0% · 7 HR
Air / Park
Pulls 27% in the air; pull side RF — park ×1.09 → park+wind fits his pull power.
Recent form · last 5
Barrel 7% · EV 93 · 2 HR over his last 5.
Matchup-Fit · barrel alignment vs Mason Barnett’s arsenal
4-Seam 56% usedbarrels 15% · allows — · 7 HR
Curve 17% usedbarrels 12% · allows — · 1 HR
Change 16% usedbarrels 12% · allows — · 2 HR
Sweeper 10% usedbarrels 0% · allows —
Air / Park
Pulls 27% in the air; pull side RF — park ×1.09 → park+wind fits his pull power.
Recent form · last 5
Barrel 7% · EV 93 · 2 HR over his last 5.
Matchup-Fit · barrel alignment vs Justin Sterner’s arsenal
4-Seam 51% usedbarrels 15% · allows 5% · 7 HR
Cutter 31% usedbarrels 0% · allows 7% · 1 HR
Sweeper 18% usedbarrels 0% · allows 0%
Air / Park
Pulls 27% in the air; pull side RF — park ×1.09 → park+wind fits his pull power.
Recent form · last 5
Barrel 7% · EV 93 · 2 HR over his last 5.
Matchup-Fit · barrel alignment vs Scott Barlow’s arsenal
Curve 29% usedbarrels 12% · allows 0% · 1 HR
4-Seam 23% usedbarrels 15% · allows — · 7 HR
Sweeper 22% usedbarrels 0% · allows 0%
Sinker 15% usedbarrels 0% · allows 8%
Slider 11% usedbarrels 7% · allows — · 1 HR
Air / Park
Pulls 27% in the air; pull side RF — park ×1.09 → park+wind fits his pull power.
Recent form · last 5
Barrel 7% · EV 93 · 2 HR over his last 5.
Matchup-Fit · barrel alignment vs Elvis Alvarado’s arsenal
4-Seam 54% usedbarrels 15% · allows — · 7 HR
Slider 23% usedbarrels 7% · allows — · 1 HR
Sinker 14% usedbarrels 0% · allows —
Change 6% usedbarrels 12% · allows — · 2 HR
Air / Park
Pulls 27% in the air; pull side RF — park ×1.09 → park+wind fits his pull power.
Recent form · last 5
Barrel 7% · EV 93 · 2 HR over his last 5.
Matchup-Fit · barrel alignment vs Luis Medina’s arsenal
4-Seam 40% usedbarrels 15% · allows 0% · 7 HR
Change 26% usedbarrels 12% · allows 0% · 2 HR
Sinker 20% usedbarrels 0% · allows 14%
Curve 8% usedbarrels 12% · allows — · 1 HR
Slider 7% usedbarrels 7% · allows — · 1 HR
Air / Park
Pulls 27% in the air; pull side RF — park ×1.09 → park+wind fits his pull power.
Recent form · last 5
Barrel 7% · EV 93 · 2 HR over his last 5.
Matchup-Fit · barrel alignment vs Jack Perkins’s arsenal
4-Seam 38% usedbarrels 15% · allows 7% · 7 HR
Sweeper 27% usedbarrels 0% · allows —
Change 21% usedbarrels 12% · allows 0% · 2 HR
Cutter 13% usedbarrels 0% · allows — · 1 HR
Air / Park
Pulls 27% in the air; pull side RF — park ×1.09 → park+wind fits his pull power.
Recent form · last 5
Barrel 7% · EV 93 · 2 HR over his last 5.
Matchup-Fit · barrel alignment vs Hogan Harris’s arsenal
4-Seam 60% usedbarrels 25% · allows 0% · 1 HR
Curve 21% usedbarrels 0% · allows 12%
Slider 13% usedbarrels 8% · allows 0% · 1 HR
Air / Park
Pulls 27% in the air; pull side RF — park ×1.09 → park+wind fits his pull power.
Recent form · last 5
Barrel 7% · EV 93 · 2 HR over his last 5.
Matchup-Fit · barrel alignment vs Mark Leiter Jr.’s arsenal
Splitter 38% usedbarrels 9% · allows 0%
Sinker 28% usedbarrels 0% · allows 0%
Curve 22% usedbarrels 12% · allows — · 1 HR
Cutter 8% usedbarrels 0% · allows — · 1 HR
4-Seam 5% usedbarrels 15% · allows — · 7 HR
Air / Park
Pulls 27% in the air; pull side RF — park ×1.09 → park+wind fits his pull power.
Recent form · last 5
Barrel 7% · EV 93 · 2 HR over his last 5.
Matchup-Fit · barrel alignment vs José Suarez’s arsenal
4-Seam 31% usedbarrels 25% · allows 0% · 1 HR
Slider 30% usedbarrels 8% · allows 0% · 1 HR
Sinker 21% usedbarrels 0% · allows 0%
Change 17% usedbarrels — · allows —
Air / Park
Pulls 27% in the air; pull side RF — park ×1.09 → park+wind fits his pull power.
Recent form · last 5
Barrel 7% · EV 93 · 2 HR over his last 5.
Matchup Lab
Loading…
Batter Stats
Last 5 games · H/AB · K · GB · FB · barrel · EV · HR/FB · HR
| H/AB | K | GB | FB | BRL | EV | HR/FB | HR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5G | 3/21 | 7 | 43% | 43% | 7% | 93 | 33% | 2 |
| 06/14 | 0/5 | 3 | 50% | 50% | 0% | 84 | 0% | 0 |
| 06/13 | 0/4 | 1 | 33% | 67% | 0% | 95 | 0% | 0 |
| 06/12 | 1/4 | 2 | 50% | 50% | 0% | 101 | 100% | 1 |
| 06/11 | 1/4 | 1 | 33% | 33% | 33% | 96 | 100% | 1 |
| 06/10 | 1/4 | 0 | 50% | 25% | 0% | 88 | 0% | 0 |
Swing & Bat Tracking (567 swings)
bat tracking
Bat speed73.3 mph
Swing length7.0 ft
Attack angle14.9°
contact
swing timing
Early18%
On-time67%
Late15%
miss profile
Over20%
Under24%
Tied-up7%
Centered67%
Flailed26%
Batter power & contact · longer + greener = more HR-likely
vs LHP · 4 HR in 94 PA
vs RHP · 13 HR in 231 PA
Matchup strength · longer + greener = more HR-favorable
matchup strength
supporting
Home / Away HR splits · season-to-date
Home HOME8 HR / 165 PA · 4.8%
Home · .441 SLG
Away AWAY9 HR / 124 PA · 7.3%
Away · .606 SLG
Park fit · spray vs this yard
Pulls 27% of contact in the air; his pull side is RF here — HR factor ×1.09 → park fits his pull power.
Pitcher
J.T. Ginn • RHP (ATH)PIT @ ATH | vs PIT4/3 W–L (Tied–59th) • 3.15 ERA (19th) • 65 Ks (Tied–61st) • 1.15 WHIP (29th)1.2 HR/9 • 12% Barrel • 20% FB • 23% K • 3.15 ERA (H 4.70 / A 1.99)▬ Holding steady0.72hittability
J.T. Ginn • RHP (ATH)
PIT @ ATH | vs PIT
4/3 W–L (Tied–59th) • 3.15 ERA (19th) • 65 Ks (Tied–61st) • 1.15 WHIP (29th)
1.2 HR/9 • 12% Barrel • 20% FB • 23% K • 3.15 ERA (H 4.70 / A 1.99)
▬ Holding steady
0.72
hittability
Last 3 starts · IP / pitches / HR
▬ Holding steady No big change in his home-run risk lately.
06/09 5.2 IP · 97 P1 HR
06/04 6.0 IP · 88 P1 HR
05/30 6.0 IP · 80 P0 HR
Pitches to target · go-deep pitches
The pitches he's given up the most homers on — and the bats most likely to punish them.
vs lefty batsslider · cutter
Most likely to capitalize: Lowe 28%, Callihan 21%, O'Hearn 15%
vs righty bats4-seam · slider
Most likely to capitalize: Valdez 12%, Gonzales 6%
HR hittability vs a league-average hitter · longer + greener = easier to take deep
vs LHB · 1.3 HR/9 · 7 HR in 200 PA
vs RHB · 1.1 HR/9 · 4 HR in 139 PA
Pitch mix · stuff · HR rating · swing-and-miss · contact
spin 1:22
spin 1:46
spin 1:16
spin 7:17
spin 1:22
spin 1:22
spin 1:46
spin 1:16
spin 7:17
spin 1:22
spin 1:22
spin 1:46
spin 1:16
spin 7:17
spin 1:22
Where he’s hittable · xSLG allowed by zone (vs LHB)
Green = he gives up slug there. Tap a band → out/mid/in cells → each pitch’s xSLG + a cyan contact-allowed bar. Cell splits use 2025–26; display only.
Splits · home/away & batter hand
| HR/9 | HR | Barrel | FB% | K% | ERA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 0.88 | 3 | — | — | 15% | 4.70 |
| Away | 1.11 | 5 | — | — | 29% | 1.99 |
| vs LHB | 1.29 | 7 | 15% | 20% | 21% | — |
| vs RHB | 1.13 | 4 | 10% | 22% | 25% | — |
HR = home runs allowed (season-to-date). ERA isn’t reported by batter hand, and barrel/FB% aren’t available by home/away — those cells show —.
Pitcher summary · vs LHB
J.T. Ginn carries a 1.23 HR/9 and gave up 1 in his last outing (2 over his last 3). Lefties have taken him deep 7 of 11 times (1.1 HR/9 to LHB).
Mason Barnett • RHP (ATH)PIT @ ATH | vs PIT1/0 W–L • 0.00 ERA • 13 Ks • 0.72 WHIP0.9 HR/9 • 13% Barrel • 25% FB • 24% K • 0.00 ERA (H 0.00 / A 0.00)▬ Holding steady0.90hittability
Mason Barnett • RHP (ATH)
PIT @ ATH | vs PIT
1/0 W–L • 0.00 ERA • 13 Ks • 0.72 WHIP
0.9 HR/9 • 13% Barrel • 25% FB • 24% K • 0.00 ERA (H 0.00 / A 0.00)
▬ Holding steady
0.90
hittability
Last 3 games · IP / pitches / HR
▬ Holding steady No big change in his home-run risk lately.
06/12 1.2 IP · 12 P0 HR
06/09 2.0 IP · 31 P0 HR
06/05 4.0 IP · 64 P0 HR
Not enough data for this view.
HR hittability vs a league-average hitter · longer + greener = easier to take deep
vs LHB · 1.2 HR/9 · 1 HR in 30 PA
vs RHB · 0.9 HR/9 · 0 HR in 31 PA
Pitch mix · stuff · HR rating · swing-and-miss · contact
Splits · home/away & batter hand
| HR/9 | HR | Barrel | FB% | K% | ERA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 0.00 | 0 | — | — | 29% | 0.00 |
| Away | 0.00 | 0 | — | — | 50% | 0.00 |
| vs LHB | 1.22 | 1 | 14% | 24% | 22% | — |
| vs RHB | 0.86 | 0 | 13% | 24% | 24% | — |
HR = home runs allowed (season-to-date). ERA isn’t reported by batter hand, and barrel/FB% aren’t available by home/away — those cells show —.
Pitcher summary · vs LHB
Mason Barnett carries a 0.91 HR/9.
Justin Sterner • RHP (ATH)PIT @ ATH | vs PIT2/3 W–L • 3.38 ERA • 30 Ks • 1.03 WHIP1.3 HR/9 • 8% Barrel • 28% FB • 23% K • 3.38 ERA (H 5.17 / A 1.65)▲ Easier to take deep lately0.90hittability
Justin Sterner • RHP (ATH)
PIT @ ATH | vs PIT
2/3 W–L • 3.38 ERA • 30 Ks • 1.03 WHIP
1.3 HR/9 • 8% Barrel • 28% FB • 23% K • 3.38 ERA (H 5.17 / A 1.65)
▲ Easier to take deep lately
0.90
hittability
Last 3 games · IP / pitches / HR
▲ Easier to take deep lately This pitcher is trending toward giving up home runs.
06/12 1.0 IP · 15 P1 HR
06/08 0.1 IP · 7 P0 HR
06/07 0.2 IP · 16 P0 HR
Pitches to target · go-deep pitches
The pitches he's given up the most homers on — and the bats most likely to punish them.
vs lefty batssweeper · cutter
Most likely to capitalize: Lowe 28%, Callihan 21%, O'Hearn 15%
vs righty batscutter · sweeper
Most likely to capitalize: Valdez 12%, Gonzales 6%
HR hittability vs a league-average hitter · longer + greener = easier to take deep
vs LHB · 1.2 HR/9 · 2 HR in 65 PA
vs RHB · 1.4 HR/9 · 3 HR in 70 PA
Pitch mix · stuff · HR rating · swing-and-miss · contact
Splits · home/away & batter hand
| HR/9 | HR | Barrel | FB% | K% | ERA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.72 | 3 | — | — | 20% | 5.17 |
| Away | 1.10 | 2 | — | — | 27% | 1.65 |
| vs LHB | 1.19 | 2 | 12% | 28% | 23% | — |
| vs RHB | 1.40 | 3 | 9% | 25% | 22% | — |
HR = home runs allowed (season-to-date). ERA isn’t reported by batter hand, and barrel/FB% aren’t available by home/away — those cells show —.
Pitcher summary · vs LHB
Justin Sterner carries a 1.34 HR/9 and gave up 1 in his last outing. Lefties have taken him deep 2 of 5 times (1.1 HR/9 to LHB). He owns a 5.17 ERA at home.
Scott Barlow • RHP (ATH)PIT @ ATH | vs PIT2/0 W–L • 5.17 ERA • 26 Ks • 1.28 WHIP1.4 HR/9 • 14% Barrel • 29% FB • 20% K • 5.17 ERA (H 10.54 / A 1.02)▲ Easier to take deep lately0.88hittability
Scott Barlow • RHP (ATH)
PIT @ ATH | vs PIT
2/0 W–L • 5.17 ERA • 26 Ks • 1.28 WHIP
1.4 HR/9 • 14% Barrel • 29% FB • 20% K • 5.17 ERA (H 10.54 / A 1.02)
▲ Easier to take deep lately
0.88
hittability
Last 3 games · IP / pitches / HR
▲ Easier to take deep lately This pitcher is trending toward giving up home runs.
06/14 0.2 IP · 30 P1 HR
06/13 1.0 IP · 12 P0 HR
06/10 0.2 IP · 14 P0 HR
Pitches to target · go-deep pitches
The pitches he's given up the most homers on — and the bats most likely to punish them.
vs lefty batssinker · sweeper
Most likely to capitalize: Lowe 28%, Callihan 21%, O'Hearn 15%
vs righty bats4-seam · sinker
Most likely to capitalize: Valdez 12%, Gonzales 6%
HR hittability vs a league-average hitter · longer + greener = easier to take deep
vs LHB · 1.3 HR/9 · 3 HR in 76 PA
vs RHB · 1.3 HR/9 · 3 HR in 82 PA
Pitch mix · stuff · HR rating · swing-and-miss · contact
Splits · home/away & batter hand
| HR/9 | HR | Barrel | FB% | K% | ERA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.29 | 5 | — | — | 15% | 10.54 |
| Away | 0.51 | 1 | — | — | 23% | 1.02 |
| vs LHB | 1.35 | 3 | 14% | 31% | 21% | — |
| vs RHB | 1.30 | 3 | 13% | 22% | 20% | — |
HR = home runs allowed (season-to-date). ERA isn’t reported by batter hand, and barrel/FB% aren’t available by home/away — those cells show —.
Pitcher summary · vs LHB
Scott Barlow carries a 1.38 HR/9 and gave up 1 in his last outing. Lefties have taken him deep 3 of 6 times (1.8 HR/9 to LHB). He owns a 10.54 ERA at home.
Elvis Alvarado • RHP (ATH)PIT @ ATH | vs PIT2/0 W–L • 5.40 ERA • 20 Ks • 1.27 WHIP0.8 HR/9 • 15% Barrel • 34% FB • 26% K • 5.40 ERA (H 6.48 / A 4.05)◐ Homer-prone on the year, quieter last 30.87hittability
Elvis Alvarado • RHP (ATH)
PIT @ ATH | vs PIT
2/0 W–L • 5.40 ERA • 20 Ks • 1.27 WHIP
0.8 HR/9 • 15% Barrel • 34% FB • 26% K • 5.40 ERA (H 6.48 / A 4.05)
◐ Homer-prone on the year, quieter last 3
0.87
hittability
Last 3 games · IP / pitches / HR
◐ Homer-prone on the year, quieter last 3 Homer-prone over the full season — the quiet recent stretch is a small sample the model discounts.
06/13 1.0 IP · 19 P0 HR
06/10 1.0 IP · 14 P0 HR
06/09 1.1 IP · 20 P0 HR
Pitches to target · go-deep pitches
The pitches he's given up the most homers on — and the bats most likely to punish them.
vs lefty bats4-seam
Most likely to capitalize: Lowe 28%, Callihan 21%, O'Hearn 15%
vs righty batsno clear target
Most likely to capitalize: Valdez 12%, Gonzales 6%
HR hittability vs a league-average hitter · longer + greener = easier to take deep
vs LHB · 1.2 HR/9 · 1 HR in 33 PA
vs RHB · 0.8 HR/9 · 0 HR in 40 PA
Pitch mix · stuff · HR rating · swing-and-miss · contact
Splits · home/away & batter hand
| HR/9 | HR | Barrel | FB% | K% | ERA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.08 | 1 | — | — | 36% | 6.48 |
| Away | 0.00 | 0 | — | — | 28% | 4.05 |
| vs LHB | 1.19 | 1 | 17% | 25% | 28% | — |
| vs RHB | 0.80 | 0 | 12% | 31% | 21% | — |
HR = home runs allowed (season-to-date). ERA isn’t reported by batter hand, and barrel/FB% aren’t available by home/away — those cells show —.
Pitcher summary · vs LHB
Elvis Alvarado carries a 0.83 HR/9. He owns a 6.48 ERA at home.
Luis Medina • RHP (ATH)PIT @ ATH | vs PIT1/1 W–L • 4.70 ERA • 32 Ks • 1.50 WHIP1.0 HR/9 • 14% Barrel • 25% FB • 22% K • 4.70 ERA (H 7.20 / A 0.00)▬ Holding steady0.87hittability
Luis Medina • RHP (ATH)
PIT @ ATH | vs PIT
1/1 W–L • 4.70 ERA • 32 Ks • 1.50 WHIP
1.0 HR/9 • 14% Barrel • 25% FB • 22% K • 4.70 ERA (H 7.20 / A 0.00)
▬ Holding steady
0.87
hittability
Last 3 games · IP / pitches / HR
▬ Holding steady No big change in his home-run risk lately.
06/14 1.0 IP · 30 P1 HR
06/10 2.0 IP · 21 P0 HR
06/08 1.2 IP · 29 P1 HR
Pitches to target · go-deep pitches
The pitches he's given up the most homers on — and the bats most likely to punish them.
vs lefty batssinker
Most likely to capitalize: Lowe 28%, Callihan 21%, O'Hearn 15%
vs righty bats4-seam
Most likely to capitalize: Valdez 12%, Gonzales 6%
HR hittability vs a league-average hitter · longer + greener = easier to take deep
vs LHB · 0.9 HR/9 · 1 HR in 71 PA
vs RHB · 1.3 HR/9 · 3 HR in 87 PA
Pitch mix · stuff · HR rating · swing-and-miss · contact
Splits · home/away & batter hand
| HR/9 | HR | Barrel | FB% | K% | ERA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.80 | 4 | — | — | 22% | 7.20 |
| Away | 0.00 | 0 | — | — | 28% | 0.00 |
| vs LHB | 0.89 | 1 | 16% | 29% | 25% | — |
| vs RHB | 1.26 | 3 | 12% | 21% | 19% | — |
HR = home runs allowed (season-to-date). ERA isn’t reported by batter hand, and barrel/FB% aren’t available by home/away — those cells show —.
Pitcher summary · vs LHB
Luis Medina carries a 1.03 HR/9 and gave up 1 in his last outing (2 over his last 3). Lefties have taken him deep 1 of 4 times (0.6 HR/9 to LHB). He owns a 7.20 ERA at home.
Jack Perkins • RHP (ATH)PIT @ ATH | vs PIT2/3 W–L • 6.25 ERA • 43 Ks • 1.36 WHIP1.0 HR/9 • 14% Barrel • 25% FB • 23% K • 6.25 ERA (H 6.20 / A 6.32)▬ Holding steady0.86hittability
Jack Perkins • RHP (ATH)
PIT @ ATH | vs PIT
2/3 W–L • 6.25 ERA • 43 Ks • 1.36 WHIP
1.0 HR/9 • 14% Barrel • 25% FB • 23% K • 6.25 ERA (H 6.20 / A 6.32)
▬ Holding steady
0.86
hittability
Last 3 outings · IP / pitches / HR
▬ Holding steady No big change in his home-run risk lately.
06/10 4.0 IP · 89 P2 HR
06/05 4.0 IP · 75 P1 HR
05/31 2.1 IP · 30 P relief0 HR
Pitches to target · go-deep pitches
The pitches he's given up the most homers on — and the bats most likely to punish them.
vs lefty batssweeper
Most likely to capitalize: Lowe 28%, Callihan 21%, O'Hearn 15%
vs righty batscutter
Most likely to capitalize: Valdez 12%, Gonzales 6%
HR hittability vs a league-average hitter · longer + greener = easier to take deep
vs LHB · 0.8 HR/9 · 1 HR in 92 PA
vs RHB · 1.4 HR/9 · 4 HR in 101 PA
Pitch mix · stuff · HR rating · swing-and-miss · contact
Splits · home/away & batter hand
| HR/9 | HR | Barrel | FB% | K% | ERA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.33 | 3 | — | — | 24% | 6.20 |
| Away | 0.57 | 1 | — | — | 29% | 6.32 |
| vs LHB | 0.78 | 1 | 14% | 23% | 26% | — |
| vs RHB | 1.37 | 4 | 13% | 25% | 20% | — |
HR = home runs allowed (season-to-date). ERA isn’t reported by batter hand, and barrel/FB% aren’t available by home/away — those cells show —.
Pitcher summary · vs LHB
Jack Perkins carries a 1.04 HR/9 and gave up 2 in his last outing (3 over his last 3). He owns a 6.20 ERA at home.
Hogan Harris • LHP (ATH)PIT @ ATH | vs PIT3/0 W–L • 2.67 ERA • 39 Ks • 1.49 WHIP1.0 HR/9 • 10% Barrel • 16% FB • 24% K • 2.67 ERA (H 4.60 / A 1.00)◐ Homer-prone on the year, quieter last 30.77hittability
Hogan Harris • LHP (ATH)
PIT @ ATH | vs PIT
3/0 W–L • 2.67 ERA • 39 Ks • 1.49 WHIP
1.0 HR/9 • 10% Barrel • 16% FB • 24% K • 2.67 ERA (H 4.60 / A 1.00)
◐ Homer-prone on the year, quieter last 3
0.77
hittability
Last 3 games · IP / pitches / HR
◐ Homer-prone on the year, quieter last 3 Homer-prone over the full season — the quiet recent stretch is a small sample the model discounts.
06/12 1.1 IP · 21 P0 HR
06/10 0.2 IP · 17 P0 HR
06/08 1.2 IP · 35 P0 HR
Pitches to target · go-deep pitches
The pitches he's given up the most homers on — and the bats most likely to punish them.
vs lefty batscurve
Most likely to capitalize: Lowe 28%, Callihan 21%, O'Hearn 15%
vs righty batsno clear target
Most likely to capitalize: Rodríguez 14%, Reynolds 14%, Valdez 12%
HR hittability vs a league-average hitter · longer + greener = easier to take deep
vs LHB · 0.9 HR/9 · 1 HR in 77 PA
vs RHB · 1.2 HR/9 · 3 HR in 88 PA
Pitch mix · stuff · HR rating · swing-and-miss · contact
Splits · home/away & batter hand
| HR/9 | HR | Barrel | FB% | K% | ERA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.15 | 2 | — | — | 24% | 4.60 |
| Away | 0.00 | 0 | — | — | 28% | 1.00 |
| vs LHB | 0.85 | 1 | 11% | 18% | 26% | — |
| vs RHB | 1.25 | 3 | 12% | 20% | 22% | — |
HR = home runs allowed (season-to-date). ERA isn’t reported by batter hand, and barrel/FB% aren’t available by home/away — those cells show —.
Pitcher summary · vs LHB
Hogan Harris carries a 1.00 HR/9.
Mark Leiter Jr. • RHP (ATH)PIT @ ATH | vs PIT0/1 W–L • 5.02 ERA • 31 Ks • 1.40 WHIP0.8 HR/9 • 16% Barrel • 23% FB • 24% K • 5.02 ERA (H 2.77 / A 6.89)◐ Homer-prone on the year, quieter last 30.75hittability
Mark Leiter Jr. • RHP (ATH)
PIT @ ATH | vs PIT
0/1 W–L • 5.02 ERA • 31 Ks • 1.40 WHIP
0.8 HR/9 • 16% Barrel • 23% FB • 24% K • 5.02 ERA (H 2.77 / A 6.89)
◐ Homer-prone on the year, quieter last 3
0.75
hittability
Last 3 games · IP / pitches / HR
◐ Homer-prone on the year, quieter last 3 Homer-prone over the full season — the quiet recent stretch is a small sample the model discounts.
06/13 1.0 IP · 13 P0 HR
06/08 0.1 IP · 23 P0 HR
06/07 1.0 IP · 16 P0 HR
Pitches to target · go-deep pitches
The pitches he's given up the most homers on — and the bats most likely to punish them.
vs lefty batsno clear target
Most likely to capitalize: Lowe 28%, Callihan 21%, O'Hearn 15%
vs righty batscurve
Most likely to capitalize: Valdez 12%, Gonzales 6%
HR hittability vs a league-average hitter · longer + greener = easier to take deep
vs LHB · 0.6 HR/9 · 0 HR in 79 PA
vs RHB · 1.2 HR/9 · 2 HR in 58 PA
Pitch mix · stuff · HR rating · swing-and-miss · contact
Splits · home/away & batter hand
| HR/9 | HR | Barrel | FB% | K% | ERA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 0.69 | 1 | — | — | 28% | 2.77 |
| Away | 0.57 | 1 | — | — | 23% | 6.89 |
| vs LHB | 0.60 | 0 | 15% | 22% | 26% | — |
| vs RHB | 1.25 | 2 | 15% | 24% | 20% | — |
HR = home runs allowed (season-to-date). ERA isn’t reported by batter hand, and barrel/FB% aren’t available by home/away — those cells show —.
Pitcher summary · vs LHB
Mark Leiter Jr. carries a 0.75 HR/9.
José Suarez • LHP (ATH)PIT @ ATH | vs PIT1/2 W–L • 5.71 ERA • 40 Ks • 1.85 WHIP0.5 HR/9 • 13% Barrel • 15% FB • 24% K • 5.71 ERA (H 7.91 / A 2.93)▬ Holding steady0.70hittability
José Suarez • LHP (ATH)
PIT @ ATH | vs PIT
1/2 W–L • 5.71 ERA • 40 Ks • 1.85 WHIP
0.5 HR/9 • 13% Barrel • 15% FB • 24% K • 5.71 ERA (H 7.91 / A 2.93)
▬ Holding steady
0.70
hittability
Last 3 games · IP / pitches / HR
▬ Holding steady No big change in his home-run risk lately.
06/13 1.2 IP · 22 P0 HR
06/10 0.2 IP · 12 P0 HR
06/08 2.0 IP · 27 P0 HR
Not enough data for this view.
HR hittability vs a league-average hitter · longer + greener = easier to take deep
vs LHB · 0.6 HR/9 · 0 HR in 87 PA
vs RHB · 0.8 HR/9 · 2 HR in 127 PA
Pitch mix · stuff · HR rating · swing-and-miss · contact
Splits · home/away & batter hand
| HR/9 | HR | Barrel | FB% | K% | ERA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 0.47 | 1 | — | — | 22% | 7.91 |
| Away | 0.00 | 0 | — | — | 27% | 2.93 |
| vs LHB | 0.57 | 0 | 12% | 20% | 25% | — |
| vs RHB | 0.83 | 2 | 15% | 17% | 22% | — |
HR = home runs allowed (season-to-date). ERA isn’t reported by batter hand, and barrel/FB% aren’t available by home/away — those cells show —.
Pitcher summary · vs LHB
José Suarez carries a 0.54 HR/9. He owns a 7.91 ERA at home.
Pick who he’ll face
Matchup vs J.T. GinnB
Arms like J.T. Ginn
Most similar arsenals (velocity, movement, mix): Kumar Rocker, Joel Kuhnel, Stephen Kolek, Bryce Elder, Adrian Houser, Chris Bassitt.
vs arms like this (since 2025), 3 HR in 24 PA (12.5% · league ~3%).
Matchup vs Mason BarnettA · ×1.32
Arms like Mason Barnett
Most similar arsenals (velocity, movement, mix): Nick Pivetta, Juan Mejia, Drew Anderson, Will Klein, Ryan Weiss, Janson Junk.
vs arms like this (since 2025), 1 HR in 19 PA (5.3% · league ~3%).
Matchup vs Justin SternerA · ×1.22
Arms like Justin Sterner
Most similar arsenals (velocity, movement, mix): Christian Scott, AJ Blubaugh, Yoendrys Gómez, Jameson Taillon, Jacob Webb, Logan Henderson.
vs arms like this (since 2025), 3 HR in 24 PA (12.5% · league ~3%).
Matchup vs Scott BarlowB · ×1.07
Arms like Scott Barlow
Most similar arsenals (velocity, movement, mix): Mitch Keller, Jake Irvin, Yohan Ramírez, Tomoyuki Sugano, Ryan Feltner, Kai-Wei Teng.
vs arms like this (since 2025), 4 HR in 35 PA (11.4% · league ~3%).
Matchup vs Elvis AlvaradoA · ×1.31
Arms like Elvis Alvarado
Most similar arsenals (velocity, movement, mix): Enyel De Los Santos, Chase Dollander, Bryan Woo, Osvaldo Bido, Luis Castillo, Brad Lord.
vs arms like this (since 2025), 4 HR in 24 PA (16.7% · league ~3%).
Matchup vs Luis MedinaA · ×1.21
Arms like Luis Medina
Most similar arsenals (velocity, movement, mix): Jonathan Bowlan, Jack Leiter, Edgardo Henriquez, David Morgan, Jaden Hill, Mick Abel.
vs arms like this (since 2025), 1 HR in 25 PA (4.0% · league ~3%).
Matchup vs Jack PerkinsA · ×1.24
Arms like Jack Perkins
Most similar arsenals (velocity, movement, mix): Ryan Weiss, Yohan Ramírez, Ryan Zeferjahn, Luis Severino, Christian Scott, Orion Kerkering.
vs arms like this (since 2025), 1 HR in 31 PA (3.2% · league ~3%).
Matchup vs Hogan HarrisA · ×1.40
Arms like Hogan Harris
Most similar arsenals (velocity, movement, mix): MacKenzie Gore, Jacob Latz, Brent Headrick, Robbie Ray, Andrew Abbott, Reid Detmers.
vs arms like this (since 2025), 0 HR in 19 PA (0.0% · league ~3%).
Matchup vs Mark Leiter Jr.B · ×1.08
Arms like Mark Leiter Jr.
Most similar arsenals (velocity, movement, mix): Javier Assad, Cal Quantrill, Chris Bassitt, Paul Blackburn, Taijuan Walker, Erick Fedde.
vs arms like this (since 2025), 3 HR in 44 PA (6.8% · league ~3%).
Matchup vs José SuarezA · ×1.29
Arms like José Suarez
Most similar arsenals (velocity, movement, mix): Carlos Rodón, Kris Bubic, Trevor Rogers, Enmanuel De Jesus, Shane McClanahan, Jacob Latz.
vs arms like this (since 2025), 1 HR in 23 PA (4.3% · league ~3%).
Shea Langeliers RATH HOME vs Jared Jones SP? · ATHwind 1.07park 0.93brl 22%recent 7%28%MatchupC+261
Shea Langeliers R
ATH HOME vs Jared Jones SP? · ATH
wind 1.07park 0.93brl 22%recent 7%
28%
MatchupC
+261
Shea Langeliers R
ATH HOME vs Jared Jones SP? · ATH
wind 1.07park 0.93brl 22%recent 7%
28%
Matchup summary · vs Jared Jones
Batter Summary ➖ Steady
Langeliers has 11 of his 18 HRs off RHP, 41% hard-hit that side. 8 of his 18 HRs have come at home, slugging .585 there. Wind is blowing out to his pull side.
Form Last ~3 weeks (recency-weighted): .254 xwOBAcon (lg .372), 7% well-hit (lg 14%), 37% hard-hit · 2 HR in 58 PA. Right around league — no real trend either way.
Ranking Reasoning
Strong HR spot.
Big power vs RHP (20% barrels), wind blowing out to his pull side and holds power in two-strike counts.
Big power vs RHP (20% barrels), wind blowing out to his pull side and holds power in two-strike counts.
🏟️ Homered here 25× at this park (since ’25)
Pitch by Pitch
Pitch-by-pitch · Santana throws / Langeliers hits
Stuff & usage = the arm’s; whiff / contact / EV / barrel / air-ground / HR = Langeliers’s 2026 vs RHP · green = bat’s edge
Slider—48% used
Whiff
34%
Contact
66%
EV
92
Barrel
14%
Air/Gnd
20/34
HR
4
35 BBE
4-Seam—24% used
Whiff
21%
Contact
79%
EV
96
Barrel
23%
Air/Gnd
45/14
HR
5
22 BBE
Sinker—16% used
Whiff
11%
Contact
89%
EV
90
Barrel
5%
Air/Gnd
16/58
HR
2
38 BBE
Cutter—11% used
Whiff
26%
Contact
74%
EV
90
Barrel
0%
Air/Gnd
24/18
HR
0
17 BBE
Pitch-by-pitch · Mattson throws / Langeliers hits
Stuff & usage = the arm’s; whiff / contact / EV / barrel / air-ground / HR = Langeliers’s 2026 vs RHP · green = bat’s edge
4-Seam—81% used
Whiff
21%
Contact
79%
EV
96
Barrel
23%
Air/Gnd
45/14
HR
5
22 BBE
Slider—13% used
Whiff
34%
Contact
66%
EV
92
Barrel
14%
Air/Gnd
20/34
HR
4
35 BBE
Curve—5% used
Whiff
15%
Contact
85%
EV
96
Barrel
14%
Air/Gnd
57/29
HR
0
7 BBE
Pitch-by-pitch · Bidois throws / Langeliers hits
Stuff & usage = the arm’s; whiff / contact / EV / barrel / air-ground / HR = Langeliers’s 2026 vs RHP · green = bat’s edge
4-Seam—59% used
Whiff
21%
Contact
79%
EV
96
Barrel
23%
Air/Gnd
45/14
HR
5
22 BBE
Slider—41% used
Whiff
34%
Contact
66%
EV
92
Barrel
14%
Air/Gnd
20/34
HR
4
35 BBE
Pitch-by-pitch · Sisk throws / Langeliers hits
Stuff & usage = the arm’s; whiff / contact / EV / barrel / air-ground / HR = Langeliers’s 2026 vs LHP · green = bat’s edge
Curve—34% used
Whiff
33%
Contact
67%
EV
102
Barrel
20%
Air/Gnd
40/20
HR
1
5 BBE
4-Seam—23% used
Whiff
18%
Contact
82%
EV
97
Barrel
11%
Air/Gnd
39/6
HR
3
18 BBE
Sinker—20% used
Whiff
0%
Contact
100%
EV
100
Barrel
0%
Air/Gnd
0/86
HR
1
7 BBE
Change—12% used
Whiff
35%
Contact
65%
EV
80
Barrel
0%
Air/Gnd
18/65
HR
0
17 BBE
Cutter—7% used
Whiff
38%
Contact
62%
EV
—
Barrel
—
Air/Gnd
—
HR
—
thin 2026
Sweeper—5% used
Whiff
—
Contact
—
EV
—
Barrel
—
Air/Gnd
—
HR
—
thin 2026
Pitch-by-pitch · Ramírez throws / Langeliers hits
Stuff & usage = the arm’s; whiff / contact / EV / barrel / air-ground / HR = Langeliers’s 2026 vs RHP · green = bat’s edge
Sweeper—39% used
Whiff
24%
Contact
76%
EV
92
Barrel
14%
Air/Gnd
38/24
HR
3
21 BBE
4-Seam—31% used
Whiff
21%
Contact
79%
EV
96
Barrel
23%
Air/Gnd
45/14
HR
5
22 BBE
Sinker—24% used
Whiff
11%
Contact
89%
EV
90
Barrel
5%
Air/Gnd
16/58
HR
2
38 BBE
Curve—5% used
Whiff
15%
Contact
85%
EV
96
Barrel
14%
Air/Gnd
57/29
HR
0
7 BBE
Pitch-by-pitch · Montgomery throws / Langeliers hits
Stuff & usage = the arm’s; whiff / contact / EV / barrel / air-ground / HR = Langeliers’s 2026 vs LHP · green = bat’s edge
4-Seam—69% used
Whiff
18%
Contact
82%
EV
97
Barrel
11%
Air/Gnd
39/6
HR
3
18 BBE
Slider—20% used
Whiff
38%
Contact
62%
EV
—
Barrel
—
Air/Gnd
—
HR
—
thin 2026
Curve—8% used
Whiff
33%
Contact
67%
EV
102
Barrel
20%
Air/Gnd
40/20
HR
1
5 BBE
Pitch-by-pitch · Soto throws / Langeliers hits
Stuff & usage = the arm’s; whiff / contact / EV / barrel / air-ground / HR = Langeliers’s 2026 vs LHP · green = bat’s edge
Sinker—41% used
Whiff
0%
Contact
100%
EV
100
Barrel
0%
Air/Gnd
0/86
HR
1
7 BBE
Slider—30% used
Whiff
38%
Contact
62%
EV
—
Barrel
—
Air/Gnd
—
HR
—
thin 2026
Sweeper—14% used
Whiff
—
Contact
—
EV
—
Barrel
—
Air/Gnd
—
HR
—
thin 2026
4-Seam—14% used
Whiff
18%
Contact
82%
EV
97
Barrel
11%
Air/Gnd
39/6
HR
3
18 BBE
🎯 Target
Matchup-Fit · barrel alignment vs Dennis Santana’s arsenal
Slider 48% usedbarrels 14% · allows 6% · 4 HR
4-Seam 24% usedbarrels 23% · allows 0% · 5 HR
Sinker 16% usedbarrels 5% · allows 0% · 2 HR
Cutter 11% usedbarrels 0% · allows —
Air / Park
Pulls 21% in the air; pull side LF — park ×1.21 × wind out to LF (11 mph) ×1.04 → net ×1.25 → park+wind fits his pull power.
Recent form · last 5
Barrel 6% · EV 93 · 2 HR over his last 5.
Matchup-Fit · barrel alignment vs Isaac Mattson’s arsenal
4-Seam 81% usedbarrels 23% · allows 7% · 5 HR
Slider 13% usedbarrels 14% · allows — · 4 HR
Curve 5% usedbarrels 14% · allows —
Air / Park
Pulls 21% in the air; pull side LF — park ×1.21 × wind out to LF (11 mph) ×1.04 → net ×1.25 → park+wind fits his pull power.
Recent form · last 5
Barrel 6% · EV 93 · 2 HR over his last 5.
Matchup-Fit · barrel alignment vs Brandan Bidois’s arsenal
4-Seam 59% usedbarrels 23% · allows 0% · 5 HR
Slider 41% usedbarrels 14% · allows — · 4 HR
Air / Park
Pulls 21% in the air; pull side LF — park ×1.21 × wind out to LF (11 mph) ×1.04 → net ×1.25 → park+wind fits his pull power.
Recent form · last 5
Barrel 6% · EV 93 · 2 HR over his last 5.
Matchup-Fit · barrel alignment vs Evan Sisk’s arsenal
Curve 34% usedbarrels 20% · allows 0% · 1 HR
4-Seam 23% usedbarrels 11% · allows 0% · 3 HR
Sinker 20% usedbarrels 0% · allows 12% · 1 HR
Change 12% usedbarrels 0% · allows 0%
Cutter 7% usedbarrels — · allows —
Air / Park
Pulls 21% in the air; pull side LF — park ×1.21 × wind out to LF (11 mph) ×1.04 → net ×1.25 → park+wind fits his pull power.
Recent form · last 5
Barrel 6% · EV 93 · 2 HR over his last 5.
Matchup-Fit · barrel alignment vs Yohan Ramírez’s arsenal
Sweeper 39% usedbarrels 14% · allows 7% · 3 HR
4-Seam 31% usedbarrels 23% · allows 0% · 5 HR
Sinker 24% usedbarrels 5% · allows 0% · 2 HR
Curve 5% usedbarrels 14% · allows —
Air / Park
Pulls 21% in the air; pull side LF — park ×1.21 × wind out to LF (11 mph) ×1.04 → net ×1.25 → park+wind fits his pull power.
Recent form · last 5
Barrel 6% · EV 93 · 2 HR over his last 5.
Matchup-Fit · barrel alignment vs Mason Montgomery’s arsenal
4-Seam 69% usedbarrels 11% · allows 0% · 3 HR
Slider 20% usedbarrels — · allows —
Curve 8% usedbarrels 20% · allows 12% · 1 HR
Air / Park
Pulls 21% in the air; pull side LF — park ×1.21 × wind out to LF (11 mph) ×1.04 → net ×1.25 → park+wind fits his pull power.
Recent form · last 5
Barrel 6% · EV 93 · 2 HR over his last 5.
Matchup-Fit · barrel alignment vs Gregory Soto’s arsenal
Sinker 41% usedbarrels 0% · allows 5% · 1 HR
Slider 30% usedbarrels — · allows 0%
Sweeper 14% usedbarrels — · allows 0%
4-Seam 14% usedbarrels 11% · allows 0% · 3 HR
Air / Park
Pulls 21% in the air; pull side LF — park ×1.21 × wind out to LF (11 mph) ×1.04 → net ×1.25 → park+wind fits his pull power.
Recent form · last 5
Barrel 6% · EV 93 · 2 HR over his last 5.
Batter Stats
Last 5 games · H/AB · K · GB · FB · barrel · EV · HR/FB · HR
| H/AB | K | GB | FB | BRL | EV | HR/FB | HR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5G | 7/25 | 7 | 18% | 24% | 6% | 93 | 50% | 2 |
| 06/13 | 1/4 | 1 | 33% | 33% | 0% | 104 | 0% | 0 |
| 06/12 | 1/5 | 0 | 0% | 40% | 20% | 90 | 50% | 1 |
| 06/10 | 1/4 | 1 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 91 | — | 0 |
| 06/09 | 1/5 | 2 | 33% | 33% | 0% | 89 | 0% | 0 |
| 06/08 | 3/7 | 3 | 33% | 0% | 0% | 91 | — | 1 |
Swing & Bat Tracking (476 swings)
bat tracking
Bat speed75.2 mph
Swing length7.3 ft
Attack angle11.5°
contact
swing timing
Early22%
On-time64%
Late14%
miss profile
Over10%
Under16%
Tied-up9%
Centered58%
Flailed33%
Batter power & contact · longer + greener = more HR-likely
vs LHP · 9 HR in 90 PA
vs RHP · 16 HR in 258 PA
Matchup strength · longer + greener = more HR-favorable
Starter unknown (TBD / no data) — scored vs a league-average pitcher; arsenal & zone are neutral.
matchup strength
supporting
Home / Away HR splits · season-to-date
Home HOME8 HR / 138 PA · 5.8%
Home · .585 SLG
Away AWAY10 HR / 156 PA · 6.4%
Away · .500 SLG
Park fit · spray vs this yard
Pulls 21% of contact in the air; his pull side is LF here — HR factor ×1.21 → park fits his pull power.
Pitcher
Dennis Santana • RHP (PIT)PIT @ ATH | vs ATH2/3 W–L • 4.82 ERA • 22 Ks • 1.54 WHIP0.9 HR/9 • 14% Barrel • 26% FB • 18% K • 4.82 ERA (H 4.50 / A 5.14)◐ Homer-prone on the year, quieter last 31.06hittability
Dennis Santana • RHP (PIT)
PIT @ ATH | vs ATH
2/3 W–L • 4.82 ERA • 22 Ks • 1.54 WHIP
0.9 HR/9 • 14% Barrel • 26% FB • 18% K • 4.82 ERA (H 4.50 / A 5.14)
◐ Homer-prone on the year, quieter last 3
1.06
hittability
Last 3 games · IP / pitches / HR
◐ Homer-prone on the year, quieter last 3 Homer-prone over the full season — the quiet recent stretch is a small sample the model discounts.
06/11 1.0 IP · 16 P0 HR
06/09 1.1 IP · 31 P0 HR
06/05 1.0 IP · 7 P0 HR
Pitches to target · go-deep pitches
The pitches he's given up the most homers on — and the bats most likely to punish them.
vs lefty batschange
Most likely to capitalize: Kurtz 28%, Soderstrom 24%, Butler 12%
vs righty batsno clear target
Most likely to capitalize: Langeliers 28%, Gelof 20%, Bolte 9%
HR hittability vs a league-average hitter · longer + greener = easier to take deep
vs LHB · 1.2 HR/9 · 2 HR in 69 PA
vs RHB · 0.9 HR/9 · 1 HR in 67 PA
Pitch mix · stuff · HR rating · swing-and-miss · contact
Splits · home/away & batter hand
| HR/9 | HR | Barrel | FB% | K% | ERA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.93 | 3 | — | — | 15% | 4.50 |
| Away | 0.00 | 0 | — | — | 20% | 5.14 |
| vs LHB | 1.15 | 2 | 16% | 27% | 21% | — |
| vs RHB | 0.91 | 1 | 12% | 22% | 17% | — |
HR = home runs allowed (season-to-date). ERA isn’t reported by batter hand, and barrel/FB% aren’t available by home/away — those cells show —.
Pitcher summary · vs RHB
Dennis Santana carries a 0.95 HR/9. He owns a 5.14 ERA on the road. ATH ranks 3rd in HR factor for RH hitters.
Isaac Mattson • RHP (PIT)PIT @ ATH | vs ATH0/0 W–L • 3.86 ERA • 16 Ks • 1.48 WHIP0.4 HR/9 • 16% Barrel • 26% FB • 20% K • 3.86 ERA (H 3.65 / A 4.15)▬ Holding steady1.02hittability
Isaac Mattson • RHP (PIT)
PIT @ ATH | vs ATH
0/0 W–L • 3.86 ERA • 16 Ks • 1.48 WHIP
0.4 HR/9 • 16% Barrel • 26% FB • 20% K • 3.86 ERA (H 3.65 / A 4.15)
▬ Holding steady
1.02
hittability
Last 3 games · IP / pitches / HR
▬ Holding steady No big change in his home-run risk lately.
06/14 1.1 IP · 27 P0 HR
05/17 1.0 IP · 15 P0 HR
05/16 1.1 IP · 25 P0 HR
Not enough data for this view.
HR hittability vs a league-average hitter · longer + greener = easier to take deep
vs LHB · 0.7 HR/9 · 0 HR in 51 PA
vs RHB · 0.7 HR/9 · 0 HR in 49 PA
Pitch mix · stuff · HR rating · swing-and-miss · contact
Splits · home/away & batter hand
| HR/9 | HR | Barrel | FB% | K% | ERA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 0.00 | 0 | — | — | 17% | 3.65 |
| Away | 0.00 | 0 | — | — | 18% | 4.15 |
| vs LHB | 0.73 | 0 | 14% | 24% | 21% | — |
| vs RHB | 0.74 | 0 | 16% | 25% | 20% | — |
HR = home runs allowed (season-to-date). ERA isn’t reported by batter hand, and barrel/FB% aren’t available by home/away — those cells show —.
Pitcher summary · vs RHB
Isaac Mattson carries a 0.45 HR/9. ATH ranks 3rd in HR factor for RH hitters.
Brandan Bidois • RHP (PIT)PIT @ ATH | vs ATH0/0 W–L • 5.14 ERA • 17 Ks • 1.86 WHIP1.7 HR/9 • 17% Barrel • 32% FB • 23% K • 5.14 ERA (H 6.10 / A 2.45)◐ Homer-prone on the year, quieter last 31.02hittability
Brandan Bidois • RHP (PIT)
PIT @ ATH | vs ATH
0/0 W–L • 5.14 ERA • 17 Ks • 1.86 WHIP
1.7 HR/9 • 17% Barrel • 32% FB • 23% K • 5.14 ERA (H 6.10 / A 2.45)
◐ Homer-prone on the year, quieter last 3
1.02
hittability
Last 3 games · IP / pitches / HR
◐ Homer-prone on the year, quieter last 3 Homer-prone over the full season — the quiet recent stretch is a small sample the model discounts.
06/14 0.2 IP · 21 P0 HR
06/11 1.1 IP · 29 P0 HR
06/09 0.2 IP · 36 P0 HR
Pitches to target · go-deep pitches
The pitches he's given up the most homers on — and the bats most likely to punish them.
vs lefty bats4-seam
Most likely to capitalize: Kurtz 28%, Soderstrom 24%, Butler 12%
vs righty batsno clear target
Most likely to capitalize: Langeliers 28%, Gelof 20%, Bolte 9%
HR hittability vs a league-average hitter · longer + greener = easier to take deep
vs LHB · 2.0 HR/9 · 4 HR in 43 PA
vs RHB · 0.9 HR/9 · 0 HR in 30 PA
Pitch mix · stuff · HR rating · swing-and-miss · contact
Splits · home/away & batter hand
| HR/9 | HR | Barrel | FB% | K% | ERA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.61 | 3 | — | — | 22% | 6.10 |
| Away | 2.45 | 1 | — | — | 31% | 2.45 |
| vs LHB | 2.02 | 4 | 17% | 32% | 22% | — |
| vs RHB | 0.87 | 0 | 14% | 23% | 23% | — |
HR = home runs allowed (season-to-date). ERA isn’t reported by batter hand, and barrel/FB% aren’t available by home/away — those cells show —.
Pitcher summary · vs RHB
Brandan Bidois carries a 1.68 HR/9. ATH ranks 3rd in HR factor for RH hitters.
Evan Sisk • LHP (PIT)PIT @ ATH | vs ATH1/0 W–L • 1.80 ERA • 36 Ks • 1.13 WHIP0.6 HR/9 • 11% Barrel • 17% FB • 26% K • 1.80 ERA (H 2.87 / A 0.63)◐ Homer-prone on the year, quieter last 30.70hittability
Evan Sisk • LHP (PIT)
PIT @ ATH | vs ATH
1/0 W–L • 1.80 ERA • 36 Ks • 1.13 WHIP
0.6 HR/9 • 11% Barrel • 17% FB • 26% K • 1.80 ERA (H 2.87 / A 0.63)
◐ Homer-prone on the year, quieter last 3
0.70
hittability
Last 3 games · IP / pitches / HR
◐ Homer-prone on the year, quieter last 3 Homer-prone over the full season — the quiet recent stretch is a small sample the model discounts.
06/14 1.0 IP · 16 P0 HR
06/11 0.2 IP · 31 P0 HR
06/10 0.1 IP · 8 P0 HR
Not enough data for this view.
HR hittability vs a league-average hitter · longer + greener = easier to take deep
vs LHB · 0.9 HR/9 · 1 HR in 71 PA
vs RHB · 0.7 HR/9 · 0 HR in 64 PA
Pitch mix · stuff · HR rating · swing-and-miss · contact
Splits · home/away & batter hand
| HR/9 | HR | Barrel | FB% | K% | ERA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 0.00 | 0 | — | — | 32% | 2.87 |
| Away | 0.63 | 1 | — | — | 26% | 0.63 |
| vs LHB | 0.89 | 1 | 13% | 24% | 26% | — |
| vs RHB | 0.67 | 0 | 11% | 16% | 23% | — |
HR = home runs allowed (season-to-date). ERA isn’t reported by batter hand, and barrel/FB% aren’t available by home/away — those cells show —.
Pitcher summary · vs RHB
Evan Sisk carries a 0.56 HR/9. ATH ranks 3rd in HR factor for RH hitters.
Yohan Ramírez • RHP (PIT)PIT @ ATH | vs ATH4/2 W–L (Tied–59th) • 4.31 ERA • 45 Ks • 1.31 WHIP0.9 HR/9 • 12% Barrel • 23% FB • 25% K • 4.31 ERA (H 4.22 / A 4.42)◐ Homer-prone on the year, quieter last 30.69hittability
Yohan Ramírez • RHP (PIT)
PIT @ ATH | vs ATH
4/2 W–L (Tied–59th) • 4.31 ERA • 45 Ks • 1.31 WHIP
0.9 HR/9 • 12% Barrel • 23% FB • 25% K • 4.31 ERA (H 4.22 / A 4.42)
◐ Homer-prone on the year, quieter last 3
0.69
hittability
Last 3 games · IP / pitches / HR
◐ Homer-prone on the year, quieter last 3 Homer-prone over the full season — the quiet recent stretch is a small sample the model discounts.
06/13 1.0 IP · 23 P0 HR
06/11 2.0 IP · 35 P0 HR
06/06 2.0 IP · 23 P0 HR
Pitches to target · go-deep pitches
The pitches he's given up the most homers on — and the bats most likely to punish them.
vs lefty bats4-seam
Most likely to capitalize: Kurtz 28%, Soderstrom 24%, Butler 12%
vs righty batsno clear target
Most likely to capitalize: Langeliers 28%, Gelof 20%, Bolte 9%
HR hittability vs a league-average hitter · longer + greener = easier to take deep
vs LHB · 1.2 HR/9 · 3 HR in 93 PA
vs RHB · 0.8 HR/9 · 1 HR in 92 PA
Pitch mix · stuff · HR rating · swing-and-miss · contact
Splits · home/away & batter hand
| HR/9 | HR | Barrel | FB% | K% | ERA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 0.84 | 2 | — | — | 27% | 4.22 |
| Away | 0.98 | 2 | — | — | 24% | 4.42 |
| vs LHB | 1.21 | 3 | 15% | 26% | 25% | — |
| vs RHB | 0.78 | 1 | 10% | 20% | 23% | — |
HR = home runs allowed (season-to-date). ERA isn’t reported by batter hand, and barrel/FB% aren’t available by home/away — those cells show —.
Pitcher summary · vs RHB
Yohan Ramírez carries a 0.91 HR/9. Righties have taken him deep 1 of 4 times (0.4 HR/9 to RHB). ATH ranks 3rd in HR factor for RH hitters.
Mason Montgomery • LHP (PIT)PIT @ ATH | vs ATH1/1 W–L • 4.33 ERA • 34 Ks • 1.41 WHIP1.0 HR/9 • 14% Barrel • 20% FB • 26% K • 4.33 ERA (H 2.84 / A 5.65)◐ Homer-prone on the year, quieter last 30.69hittability
Mason Montgomery • LHP (PIT)
PIT @ ATH | vs ATH
1/1 W–L • 4.33 ERA • 34 Ks • 1.41 WHIP
1.0 HR/9 • 14% Barrel • 20% FB • 26% K • 4.33 ERA (H 2.84 / A 5.65)
◐ Homer-prone on the year, quieter last 3
0.69
hittability
Last 3 outings · IP / pitches / HR
◐ Homer-prone on the year, quieter last 3 Homer-prone over the full season — the quiet recent stretch is a small sample the model discounts.
06/13 1.1 IP · 15 P relief0 HR
06/07 1.0 IP · 25 P0 HR
06/06 1.0 IP · 20 P relief0 HR
Pitches to target · go-deep pitches
The pitches he's given up the most homers on — and the bats most likely to punish them.
vs lefty batsno clear target
Most likely to capitalize: Kurtz 28%, Soderstrom 24%, Butler 12%
vs righty batscurve
Most likely to capitalize: Langeliers 28%, Gelof 20%, Bolte 9%
HR hittability vs a league-average hitter · longer + greener = easier to take deep
vs LHB · 1.1 HR/9 · 1 HR in 43 PA
vs RHB · 1.0 HR/9 · 2 HR in 89 PA
Pitch mix · stuff · HR rating · swing-and-miss · contact
Splits · home/away & batter hand
| HR/9 | HR | Barrel | FB% | K% | ERA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 0.71 | 1 | — | — | 28% | 2.84 |
| Away | 1.26 | 2 | — | — | 29% | 5.65 |
| vs LHB | 1.09 | 1 | 15% | 21% | 23% | — |
| vs RHB | 1.02 | 2 | 13% | 22% | 26% | — |
HR = home runs allowed (season-to-date). ERA isn’t reported by batter hand, and barrel/FB% aren’t available by home/away — those cells show —.
Pitcher summary · vs RHB
Mason Montgomery carries a 0.97 HR/9. He owns a 5.65 ERA on the road. ATH ranks 3rd in HR factor for RH hitters.
Gregory Soto • LHP (PIT)PIT @ ATH | vs ATH4/1 W–L (Tied–59th) • 3.26 ERA • 35 Ks • 0.92 WHIP0.8 HR/9 • 10% Barrel • 26% FB • 28% K • 3.26 ERA (H 3.24 / A 3.29)▲ Easier to take deep lately0.64hittability
Gregory Soto • LHP (PIT)
PIT @ ATH | vs ATH
4/1 W–L (Tied–59th) • 3.26 ERA • 35 Ks • 0.92 WHIP
0.8 HR/9 • 10% Barrel • 26% FB • 28% K • 3.26 ERA (H 3.24 / A 3.29)
▲ Easier to take deep lately
0.64
hittability
Last 3 games · IP / pitches / HR
▲ Easier to take deep lately This pitcher is trending toward giving up home runs.
06/13 1.0 IP · 13 P0 HR
06/10 1.0 IP · 8 P1 HR
06/03 0.0 IP · 18 P0 HR
Pitches to target · go-deep pitches
The pitches he's given up the most homers on — and the bats most likely to punish them.
vs lefty batssweeper · 4-seam
Most likely to capitalize: Kurtz 28%, Soderstrom 24%, Butler 12%
vs righty batsno clear target
Most likely to capitalize: Langeliers 28%, Gelof 20%, Bolte 9%
HR hittability vs a league-average hitter · longer + greener = easier to take deep
vs LHB · 1.4 HR/9 · 2 HR in 40 PA
vs RHB · 0.6 HR/9 · 0 HR in 87 PA
Pitch mix · stuff · HR rating · swing-and-miss · contact
Splits · home/away & batter hand
| HR/9 | HR | Barrel | FB% | K% | ERA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.08 | 2 | — | — | 22% | 3.24 |
| Away | 0.00 | 0 | — | — | 37% | 3.29 |
| vs LHB | 1.43 | 2 | 14% | 24% | 25% | — |
| vs RHB | 0.57 | 0 | 11% | 25% | 27% | — |
HR = home runs allowed (season-to-date). ERA isn’t reported by batter hand, and barrel/FB% aren’t available by home/away — those cells show —.
Pitcher summary · vs RHB
Gregory Soto carries a 0.79 HR/9 and gave up 0 in his last outing (1 over his last 3). ATH ranks 3rd in HR factor for RH hitters.
Pick who he’ll face
Matchup vs Dennis SantanaA · ×1.17
Arms like Dennis Santana
Most similar arsenals (velocity, movement, mix): Osvaldo Bido, Kevin Ginkel, Davis Martin, Andrés Muñoz, Jordan Leasure.
vs arms like this (since 2025), 0 HR in 16 PA (0.0% · league ~3%).
Matchup vs Isaac MattsonA · ×1.38
Arms like Isaac Mattson
Most similar arsenals (velocity, movement, mix): Luke Weaver, Gus Varland, Max Scherzer, Freddy Peralta, Spencer Strider, Cade Smith.
vs arms like this (since 2025), 1 HR in 25 PA (4.0% · league ~3%).
Matchup vs Brandan BidoisA · ×1.28
Matchup vs Evan SiskA · ×1.26
Arms like Evan Sisk
Most similar arsenals (velocity, movement, mix): Aaron Bummer, Ranger Suarez, David Peterson, Tyler Alexander, Kyle Hart, Jose Quintana.
vs arms like this (since 2025), 0 HR in 11 PA (0.0% · league ~3%).
Matchup vs Yohan RamírezA · ×1.25
Arms like Yohan Ramírez
Most similar arsenals (velocity, movement, mix): Kai-Wei Teng, Zack Wheeler, Gavin Williams, Grant Anderson, Yoendrys Gómez, Ryan Weiss.
vs arms like this (since 2025), 2 HR in 19 PA (10.5% · league ~3%).
Matchup vs Mason MontgomeryA · ×1.39
Arms like Mason Montgomery
Most similar arsenals (velocity, movement, mix): Tanner Scott, Erik Sabrowski, Justin Wrobleski, Jacob Latz, Jack Dreyer, Payton Tolle.
vs arms like this (since 2025), 2 HR in 34 PA (5.9% · league ~3%).
Matchup vs Gregory SotoA · ×1.18
Arms like Gregory Soto
Most similar arsenals (velocity, movement, mix): Erik Miller, Ryan Borucki, Adrian Morejon, Tim Mayza, Wandy Peralta, José A. Ferrer.
vs arms like this (since 2025), 2 HR in 17 PA (11.8% · league ~3%).
Jonathan Aranda LTB AWAY vs Eric Lauer L · LADwind 1.05park 0.97brl 20%recent 29%28%MatchupA+263
Jonathan Aranda L
TB AWAY vs Eric Lauer L · LAD
wind 1.05park 0.97brl 20%recent 29%
28%
MatchupA
+263
Jonathan Aranda L
TB AWAY vs Eric Lauer L · LAD
wind 1.05park 0.97brl 20%recent 29%
28%
Matchup summary · vs Eric Lauer
Batter Summary 📈 Trending up
Aranda has 1 of his 11 HRs off LHP, 44% hard-hit that side. 5 of his 11 HRs have come on the road, slugging .442 there. Wind is blowing out to his pull side.
Form Last ~3 weeks (recency-weighted): .586 xwOBAcon (lg .372), 29% well-hit (lg 14%), 62% hard-hit · 2 HR in 54 PA. Recent contact quality is beating league — the rating catches the heat before the HR totals show it.
Ranking Reasoning
Strong HR spot.
A homer-prone starter, he's vulnerable to lefties (4.3 HR/9) and the park favors LH power.
A homer-prone starter, he's vulnerable to lefties (4.3 HR/9) and the park favors LH power.
⚾ vs Lauer (career): 1/3 AB | 0 HR | 1K
Pitch by Pitch
Pitch-by-pitch · Lauer throws / Aranda hits
Stuff & usage = the arm’s; whiff / contact / EV / barrel / air-ground / HR = Aranda’s 2026 vs LHP · green = bat’s edge
4-SeamSt 1752% used
Whiff
28%
Contact
72%
EV
95
Barrel
13%
Air/Gnd
40/33
HR
0
15 BBE
SliderSt 720% used
Whiff
25%
Contact
75%
EV
83
Barrel
17%
Air/Gnd
17/67
HR
1
6 BBE
CutterSt 2417% used
Whiff
27%
Contact
73%
EV
—
Barrel
—
Air/Gnd
—
HR
—
thin 2026
CurveSt 310% used
Whiff
—
Contact
—
EV
—
Barrel
—
Air/Gnd
—
HR
—
thin 2026
Pitch-by-pitch · Hernández throws / Aranda hits
Stuff & usage = the arm’s; whiff / contact / EV / barrel / air-ground / HR = Aranda’s 2026 vs RHP · green = bat’s edge
Slider—64% used
Whiff
14%
Contact
86%
EV
89
Barrel
7%
Air/Gnd
33/27
HR
2
15 BBE
Sinker—28% used
Whiff
15%
Contact
85%
EV
91
Barrel
11%
Air/Gnd
33/11
HR
1
9 BBE
Change—4% used
Whiff
10%
Contact
90%
EV
87
Barrel
0%
Air/Gnd
17/39
HR
0
23 BBE
4-Seam—4% used
Whiff
20%
Contact
80%
EV
94
Barrel
13%
Air/Gnd
39/28
HR
5
46 BBE
Pitch-by-pitch · Dreyer throws / Aranda hits
Stuff & usage = the arm’s; whiff / contact / EV / barrel / air-ground / HR = Aranda’s 2026 vs LHP · green = bat’s edge
Slider—51% used
Whiff
25%
Contact
75%
EV
83
Barrel
17%
Air/Gnd
17/67
HR
1
6 BBE
4-Seam—43% used
Whiff
28%
Contact
72%
EV
95
Barrel
13%
Air/Gnd
40/33
HR
0
15 BBE
Curve—5% used
Whiff
—
Contact
—
EV
—
Barrel
—
Air/Gnd
—
HR
—
thin 2026
Pitch-by-pitch · Scott throws / Aranda hits
Stuff & usage = the arm’s; whiff / contact / EV / barrel / air-ground / HR = Aranda’s 2026 vs LHP · green = bat’s edge
Slider—50% used
Whiff
25%
Contact
75%
EV
83
Barrel
17%
Air/Gnd
17/67
HR
1
6 BBE
4-Seam—50% used
Whiff
28%
Contact
72%
EV
95
Barrel
13%
Air/Gnd
40/33
HR
0
15 BBE
Pitch-by-pitch · Vesia throws / Aranda hits
Stuff & usage = the arm’s; whiff / contact / EV / barrel / air-ground / HR = Aranda’s 2026 vs LHP · green = bat’s edge
4-Seam—54% used
Whiff
28%
Contact
72%
EV
95
Barrel
13%
Air/Gnd
40/33
HR
0
15 BBE
Slider—46% used
Whiff
25%
Contact
75%
EV
83
Barrel
17%
Air/Gnd
17/67
HR
1
6 BBE
Pitch-by-pitch · Treinen throws / Aranda hits
Stuff & usage = the arm’s; whiff / contact / EV / barrel / air-ground / HR = Aranda’s 2026 vs RHP · green = bat’s edge
Sweeper—46% used
Whiff
45%
Contact
55%
EV
92
Barrel
33%
Air/Gnd
67/33
HR
1
3 BBE
Cutter—20% used
Whiff
19%
Contact
81%
EV
98
Barrel
8%
Air/Gnd
8/31
HR
0
13 BBE
4-Seam—18% used
Whiff
20%
Contact
80%
EV
94
Barrel
13%
Air/Gnd
39/28
HR
5
46 BBE
Sinker—16% used
Whiff
15%
Contact
85%
EV
91
Barrel
11%
Air/Gnd
33/11
HR
1
9 BBE
Pitch-by-pitch · Henriquez throws / Aranda hits
Stuff & usage = the arm’s; whiff / contact / EV / barrel / air-ground / HR = Aranda’s 2026 vs RHP · green = bat’s edge
4-Seam—54% used
Whiff
20%
Contact
80%
EV
94
Barrel
13%
Air/Gnd
39/28
HR
5
46 BBE
Cutter—24% used
Whiff
19%
Contact
81%
EV
98
Barrel
8%
Air/Gnd
8/31
HR
0
13 BBE
Slider—18% used
Whiff
14%
Contact
86%
EV
89
Barrel
7%
Air/Gnd
33/27
HR
2
15 BBE
Pitch-by-pitch · Hurt throws / Aranda hits
Stuff & usage = the arm’s; whiff / contact / EV / barrel / air-ground / HR = Aranda’s 2026 vs RHP · green = bat’s edge
4-Seam—66% used
Whiff
20%
Contact
80%
EV
94
Barrel
13%
Air/Gnd
39/28
HR
5
46 BBE
Change—34% used
Whiff
10%
Contact
90%
EV
87
Barrel
0%
Air/Gnd
17/39
HR
0
23 BBE
Pitch-by-pitch · Klein throws / Aranda hits
Stuff & usage = the arm’s; whiff / contact / EV / barrel / air-ground / HR = Aranda’s 2026 vs RHP · green = bat’s edge
4-Seam—50% used
Whiff
20%
Contact
80%
EV
94
Barrel
13%
Air/Gnd
39/28
HR
5
46 BBE
Curve—29% used
Whiff
21%
Contact
79%
EV
100
Barrel
25%
Air/Gnd
50/38
HR
2
8 BBE
Slider—7% used
Whiff
14%
Contact
86%
EV
89
Barrel
7%
Air/Gnd
33/27
HR
2
15 BBE
Cutter—7% used
Whiff
19%
Contact
81%
EV
98
Barrel
8%
Air/Gnd
8/31
HR
0
13 BBE
Sweeper—6% used
Whiff
45%
Contact
55%
EV
92
Barrel
33%
Air/Gnd
67/33
HR
1
3 BBE
🎯 Target
Matchup-Fit · barrel alignment vs Eric Lauer’s arsenal
4-Seam 52% usedbarrels 13% · allows 8%
Slider 20% usedbarrels 17% · allows 0% · 1 HR
Cutter 17% usedbarrels — · allows —
Curve 10% usedbarrels — · allows —
Air / Park
Pulls 18% in the air; pull side RF — park ×1.18 × wind out to RF (9 mph) ×1.03 → net ×1.22 → park+wind fits his pull power.
Recent form · last 5
Barrel 6% · EV 91 · 0 HR over his last 5.
Matchup-Fit · barrel alignment vs Jonathan Hernández’s arsenal
Slider 64% usedbarrels 7% · allows 0% · 2 HR
Sinker 28% usedbarrels 11% · allows — · 1 HR
Change 4% usedbarrels 0% · allows —
4-Seam 4% usedbarrels 13% · allows — · 5 HR
Air / Park
Pulls 18% in the air; pull side RF — park ×1.18 × wind out to RF (9 mph) ×1.03 → net ×1.22 → park+wind fits his pull power.
Recent form · last 5
Barrel 6% · EV 91 · 0 HR over his last 5.
Matchup-Fit · barrel alignment vs Jack Dreyer’s arsenal
Slider 51% usedbarrels 17% · allows 6% · 1 HR
4-Seam 43% usedbarrels 13% · allows 0%
Curve 5% usedbarrels — · allows —
Air / Park
Pulls 18% in the air; pull side RF — park ×1.18 × wind out to RF (9 mph) ×1.03 → net ×1.22 → park+wind fits his pull power.
Recent form · last 5
Barrel 6% · EV 91 · 0 HR over his last 5.
Matchup-Fit · barrel alignment vs Tanner Scott’s arsenal
Slider 50% usedbarrels 17% · allows 0% · 1 HR
4-Seam 50% usedbarrels 13% · allows 0%
Air / Park
Pulls 18% in the air; pull side RF — park ×1.18 × wind out to RF (9 mph) ×1.03 → net ×1.22 → park+wind fits his pull power.
Recent form · last 5
Barrel 6% · EV 91 · 0 HR over his last 5.
Matchup-Fit · barrel alignment vs Alex Vesia’s arsenal
4-Seam 54% usedbarrels 13% · allows 0%
Slider 46% usedbarrels 17% · allows 0% · 1 HR
Air / Park
Pulls 18% in the air; pull side RF — park ×1.18 × wind out to RF (9 mph) ×1.03 → net ×1.22 → park+wind fits his pull power.
Recent form · last 5
Barrel 6% · EV 91 · 0 HR over his last 5.
Matchup-Fit · barrel alignment vs Blake Treinen’s arsenal
Sweeper 46% usedbarrels — · allows 11% · 1 HR
Cutter 20% usedbarrels 8% · allows —
4-Seam 18% usedbarrels 13% · allows — · 5 HR
Sinker 16% usedbarrels 11% · allows 17% · 1 HR
Air / Park
Pulls 18% in the air; pull side RF — park ×1.18 × wind out to RF (9 mph) ×1.03 → net ×1.22 → park+wind fits his pull power.
Recent form · last 5
Barrel 6% · EV 91 · 0 HR over his last 5.
Matchup-Fit · barrel alignment vs Edgardo Henriquez’s arsenal
4-Seam 54% usedbarrels 13% · allows 0% · 5 HR
Cutter 24% usedbarrels 8% · allows 0%
Slider 18% usedbarrels 7% · allows — · 2 HR
Air / Park
Pulls 18% in the air; pull side RF — park ×1.18 × wind out to RF (9 mph) ×1.03 → net ×1.22 → park+wind fits his pull power.
Recent form · last 5
Barrel 6% · EV 91 · 0 HR over his last 5.
Matchup-Fit · barrel alignment vs Kyle Hurt’s arsenal
4-Seam 66% usedbarrels 13% · allows 0% · 5 HR
Change 34% usedbarrels 0% · allows 0%
Air / Park
Pulls 18% in the air; pull side RF — park ×1.18 × wind out to RF (9 mph) ×1.03 → net ×1.22 → park+wind fits his pull power.
Recent form · last 5
Barrel 6% · EV 91 · 0 HR over his last 5.
Matchup-Fit · barrel alignment vs Will Klein’s arsenal
4-Seam 50% usedbarrels 13% · allows 0% · 5 HR
Curve 29% usedbarrels 25% · allows 0% · 2 HR
Slider 7% usedbarrels 7% · allows — · 2 HR
Cutter 7% usedbarrels 8% · allows —
Sweeper 6% usedbarrels — · allows — · 1 HR
Air / Park
Pulls 18% in the air; pull side RF — park ×1.18 × wind out to RF (9 mph) ×1.03 → net ×1.22 → park+wind fits his pull power.
Recent form · last 5
Barrel 6% · EV 91 · 0 HR over his last 5.
Matchup Lab
Loading…
Batter Stats
Last 5 games · H/AB · K · GB · FB · barrel · EV · HR/FB · HR
| H/AB | K | GB | FB | BRL | EV | HR/FB | HR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5G | 6/21 | 3 | 53% | 12% | 6% | 91 | 0% | 0 |
| 06/14 | 2/5 | 1 | 0% | 25% | 25% | 94 | 0% | 0 |
| 06/13 | 0/3 | 0 | 100% | 0% | 0% | 96 | — | 0 |
| 06/12 | 2/5 | 0 | 75% | 0% | 0% | 83 | — | 0 |
| 06/10 | 1/4 | 1 | 33% | 0% | 0% | 93 | — | 0 |
| 06/08 | 1/4 | 1 | 67% | 33% | 0% | 93 | 0% | 0 |
Swing & Bat Tracking (496 swings)
bat tracking
Bat speed70.4 mph
Swing length7.2 ft
Attack angle8.6°
contact
swing timing
Early10%
On-time67%
Late23%
miss profile
Over9%
Under31%
Tied-up5%
Centered77%
Flailed19%
Batter power & contact · longer + greener = more HR-likely
vs LHP · 1 HR in 101 PA
vs RHP · 11 HR in 228 PA
Matchup strength · longer + greener = more HR-favorable
matchup strength
supporting
Home / Away HR splits · season-to-date
Home HOME6 HR / 136 PA · 4.4%
Home · .456 SLG
Away AWAY5 HR / 157 PA · 3.2%
Away · .442 SLG
Park fit · spray vs this yard
Pulls 18% of contact in the air; his pull side is RF here — HR factor ×1.18 → park fits his pull power.
Pitcher
Eric Lauer • LHP (LAD)TB @ LAD | vs TB2/5 W–L • 5.47 ERA • 36 Ks • 1.29 WHIP2.0 HR/9 • 15% Barrel • 31% FB • 17% K • 5.47 ERA (H 5.88 / A 5.06)▬ Holding steady1.30hittability
Eric Lauer • LHP (LAD)
TB @ LAD | vs TB
2/5 W–L • 5.47 ERA • 36 Ks • 1.29 WHIP
2.0 HR/9 • 15% Barrel • 31% FB • 17% K • 5.47 ERA (H 5.88 / A 5.06)
▬ Holding steady
1.30
hittability
Last 3 starts · IP / pitches / HR
▬ Holding steady No big change in his home-run risk lately.
06/09 5.2 IP · 89 P2 HR
06/02 4.2 IP · 70 P1 HR
05/26 6.0 IP · 96 P1 HR
Pitches to target · go-deep pitches
The pitches he's given up the most homers on — and the bats most likely to punish them.
vs lefty batsslider · 4-seam
Most likely to capitalize: Aranda 28%, Mullins 16%
vs righty batscurve · 4-seam
Most likely to capitalize: Caminero 29%, Díaz 25%, Vilade 16%
HR hittability vs a league-average hitter · longer + greener = easier to take deep
vs LHB · 1.8 HR/9 · 4 HR in 60 PA
vs RHB · 1.9 HR/9 · 11 HR in 195 PA
Pitch mix · stuff · HR rating · swing-and-miss · contact
spin 10:38
spin 9:57
spin 11:30
spin 4:12
spin 12:09
spin 10:38
spin 9:57
spin 11:30
spin 4:12
spin 12:09
spin 10:38
spin 9:57
spin 11:30
spin 4:12
spin 12:09
Where he’s hittable · xSLG allowed by zone (vs LHB)
Green = he gives up slug there. Tap a band → out/mid/in cells → each pitch’s xSLG + a cyan contact-allowed bar. Cell splits use 2025–26; display only.
Splits · home/away & batter hand
| HR/9 | HR | Barrel | FB% | K% | ERA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.77 | 8 | — | — | 20% | 5.88 |
| Away | 2.36 | 7 | — | — | 13% | 5.06 |
| vs LHB | 1.77 | 4 | 15% | 24% | 20% | — |
| vs RHB | 1.87 | 11 | 14% | 31% | 17% | — |
HR = home runs allowed (season-to-date). ERA isn’t reported by batter hand, and barrel/FB% aren’t available by home/away — those cells show —.
Pitcher summary · vs LHB
Eric Lauer carries a 2.04 HR/9 and gave up 2 in his last outing (4 over his last 3). Lefties have taken him deep 4 of 15 times (4.3 HR/9 to LHB). He owns a 5.88 ERA at home. LAD ranks 5th in HR factor for LH hitters.
Jonathan Hernández • RHP (LAD)TB @ LAD | vs TB0/0 W–L • 4.97 ERA • 10 Ks • 1.18 WHIP1.8 HR/9 • 14% Barrel • 25% FB • 18% K • 4.97 ERA (H 11.12 / A 0.00)▲ Easier to take deep lately1.00hittability
Jonathan Hernández • RHP (LAD)
TB @ LAD | vs TB
0/0 W–L • 4.97 ERA • 10 Ks • 1.18 WHIP
1.8 HR/9 • 14% Barrel • 25% FB • 18% K • 4.97 ERA (H 11.12 / A 0.00)
▲ Easier to take deep lately
1.00
hittability
Last 3 games · IP / pitches / HR
▲ Easier to take deep lately This pitcher is trending toward giving up home runs.
06/14 1.0 IP · 13 P0 HR
06/12 2.0 IP · 46 P0 HR
06/07 1.2 IP · 39 P2 HR
Pitches to target · go-deep pitches
The pitches he's given up the most homers on — and the bats most likely to punish them.
vs lefty batsno clear target
Most likely to capitalize: Aranda 28%, Mullins 16%, Walls 6%
vs righty batssinker
Most likely to capitalize: Caminero 29%, Díaz 25%, Vilade 16%
HR hittability vs a league-average hitter · longer + greener = easier to take deep
vs LHB · 1.2 HR/9 · 1 HR in 32 PA
vs RHB · 1.9 HR/9 · 3 HR in 33 PA
Pitch mix · stuff · HR rating · swing-and-miss · contact
Splits · home/away & batter hand
| HR/9 | HR | Barrel | FB% | K% | ERA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 4.76 | 3 | — | — | 19% | 11.12 |
| Away | 0.00 | 0 | — | — | 19% | 0.00 |
| vs LHB | 1.20 | 1 | 12% | 23% | 16% | — |
| vs RHB | 1.86 | 3 | 16% | 25% | 23% | — |
HR = home runs allowed (season-to-date). ERA isn’t reported by batter hand, and barrel/FB% aren’t available by home/away — those cells show —.
Pitcher summary · vs LHB
Jonathan Hernández carries a 1.79 HR/9 and gave up 0 in his last outing (2 over his last 3). He owns a 11.12 ERA at home. LAD ranks 5th in HR factor for LH hitters.
Jack Dreyer • LHP (LAD)TB @ LAD | vs TB3/1 W–L • 3.77 ERA • 31 Ks • 1.01 WHIP1.6 HR/9 • 15% Barrel • 24% FB • 27% K • 3.77 ERA (H 0.69 / A 6.32)▲ Easier to take deep lately0.87hittability
Jack Dreyer • LHP (LAD)
TB @ LAD | vs TB
3/1 W–L • 3.77 ERA • 31 Ks • 1.01 WHIP
1.6 HR/9 • 15% Barrel • 24% FB • 27% K • 3.77 ERA (H 0.69 / A 6.32)
▲ Easier to take deep lately
0.87
hittability
Last 3 games · IP / pitches / HR
▲ Easier to take deep lately This pitcher is trending toward giving up home runs.
06/14 1.0 IP · 21 P2 HR
06/11 1.0 IP · 11 P0 HR
06/10 0.2 IP · 16 P1 HR
Pitches to target · go-deep pitches
The pitches he's given up the most homers on — and the bats most likely to punish them.
vs lefty bats4-seam
Most likely to capitalize: Aranda 28%, Mullins 16%
vs righty batsslider · 4-seam
Most likely to capitalize: Caminero 29%, Díaz 25%, Vilade 16%
HR hittability vs a league-average hitter · longer + greener = easier to take deep
vs LHB · 1.2 HR/9 · 2 HR in 62 PA
vs RHB · 1.7 HR/9 · 4 HR in 65 PA
Pitch mix · stuff · HR rating · swing-and-miss · contact
Splits · home/away & batter hand
| HR/9 | HR | Barrel | FB% | K% | ERA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 0.69 | 1 | — | — | 33% | 0.69 |
| Away | 2.87 | 5 | — | — | 24% | 6.32 |
| vs LHB | 1.21 | 2 | 12% | 25% | 22% | — |
| vs RHB | 1.71 | 4 | 17% | 22% | 30% | — |
HR = home runs allowed (season-to-date). ERA isn’t reported by batter hand, and barrel/FB% aren’t available by home/away — those cells show —.
Pitcher summary · vs LHB
Jack Dreyer carries a 1.60 HR/9 and gave up 2 in his last outing (3 over his last 3). Lefties have taken him deep 2 of 6 times (1.1 HR/9 to LHB). LAD ranks 5th in HR factor for LH hitters.
Tanner Scott • LHP (LAD)TB @ LAD | vs TB1/3 W–L • 2.48 ERA • 35 Ks • 0.76 WHIP1.4 HR/9 • 16% Barrel • 26% FB • 28% K • 2.48 ERA (H 3.38 / A 1.38)◐ Homer-prone on the year, quieter last 30.82hittability
Tanner Scott • LHP (LAD)
TB @ LAD | vs TB
1/3 W–L • 2.48 ERA • 35 Ks • 0.76 WHIP
1.4 HR/9 • 16% Barrel • 26% FB • 28% K • 2.48 ERA (H 3.38 / A 1.38)
◐ Homer-prone on the year, quieter last 3
0.82
hittability
Last 3 games · IP / pitches / HR
◐ Homer-prone on the year, quieter last 3 Homer-prone over the full season — the quiet recent stretch is a small sample the model discounts.
06/11 1.1 IP · 18 P0 HR
06/09 1.0 IP · 17 P0 HR
06/05 0.2 IP · 12 P0 HR
Pitches to target · go-deep pitches
The pitches he's given up the most homers on — and the bats most likely to punish them.
vs lefty batsno clear target
Most likely to capitalize: Aranda 28%, Mullins 16%
vs righty bats4-seam
Most likely to capitalize: Caminero 29%, Díaz 25%, Vilade 16%
HR hittability vs a league-average hitter · longer + greener = easier to take deep
vs LHB · 0.8 HR/9 · 0 HR in 45 PA
vs RHB · 1.7 HR/9 · 5 HR in 85 PA
Pitch mix · stuff · HR rating · swing-and-miss · contact
Splits · home/away & batter hand
| HR/9 | HR | Barrel | FB% | K% | ERA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.69 | 3 | — | — | 28% | 3.38 |
| Away | 0.69 | 1 | — | — | 38% | 1.38 |
| vs LHB | 0.77 | 0 | 14% | 23% | 29% | — |
| vs RHB | 1.73 | 5 | 17% | 26% | 26% | — |
HR = home runs allowed (season-to-date). ERA isn’t reported by batter hand, and barrel/FB% aren’t available by home/away — those cells show —.
Pitcher summary · vs LHB
Tanner Scott carries a 1.38 HR/9. LAD ranks 5th in HR factor for LH hitters.
Alex Vesia • LHP (LAD)TB @ LAD | vs TB1/1 W–L • 2.74 ERA • 31 Ks • 1.00 WHIP0.4 HR/9 • 10% Barrel • 27% FB • 28% K • 2.74 ERA (H 5.56 / A 0.00)▬ Holding steady0.81hittability
Alex Vesia • LHP (LAD)
TB @ LAD | vs TB
1/1 W–L • 2.74 ERA • 31 Ks • 1.00 WHIP
0.4 HR/9 • 10% Barrel • 27% FB • 28% K • 2.74 ERA (H 5.56 / A 0.00)
▬ Holding steady
0.81
hittability
Last 3 games · IP / pitches / HR
▬ Holding steady No big change in his home-run risk lately.
06/13 0.2 IP · 8 P0 HR
06/11 0.1 IP · 4 P0 HR
06/10 0.1 IP · 9 P0 HR
Not enough data for this view.
HR hittability vs a league-average hitter · longer + greener = easier to take deep
vs LHB · 0.8 HR/9 · 0 HR in 45 PA
vs RHB · 0.7 HR/9 · 0 HR in 63 PA
Pitch mix · stuff · HR rating · swing-and-miss · contact
Splits · home/away & batter hand
| HR/9 | HR | Barrel | FB% | K% | ERA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 0.00 | 0 | — | — | 36% | 5.56 |
| Away | 0.00 | 0 | — | — | 30% | 0.00 |
| vs LHB | 0.77 | 0 | 12% | 24% | 24% | — |
| vs RHB | 0.67 | 0 | 11% | 27% | 29% | — |
HR = home runs allowed (season-to-date). ERA isn’t reported by batter hand, and barrel/FB% aren’t available by home/away — those cells show —.
Pitcher summary · vs LHB
Alex Vesia carries a 0.43 HR/9. He owns a 5.56 ERA at home. LAD ranks 5th in HR factor for LH hitters.
Blake Treinen • RHP (LAD)TB @ LAD | vs TB3/1 W–L • 3.68 ERA • 23 Ks • 1.41 WHIP1.0 HR/9 • 17% Barrel • 26% FB • 22% K • 3.68 ERA (H 3.48 / A 3.86)◐ Homer-prone on the year, quieter last 30.78hittability
Blake Treinen • RHP (LAD)
TB @ LAD | vs TB
3/1 W–L • 3.68 ERA • 23 Ks • 1.41 WHIP
1.0 HR/9 • 17% Barrel • 26% FB • 22% K • 3.68 ERA (H 3.48 / A 3.86)
◐ Homer-prone on the year, quieter last 3
0.78
hittability
Last 3 games · IP / pitches / HR
◐ Homer-prone on the year, quieter last 3 Homer-prone over the full season — the quiet recent stretch is a small sample the model discounts.
06/14 1.0 IP · 13 P0 HR
06/12 0.2 IP · 16 P0 HR
06/09 1.0 IP · 31 P0 HR
Pitches to target · go-deep pitches
The pitches he's given up the most homers on — and the bats most likely to punish them.
vs lefty batssweeper
Most likely to capitalize: Aranda 28%, Mullins 16%, Walls 6%
vs righty batsno clear target
Most likely to capitalize: Caminero 29%, Díaz 25%, Vilade 16%
HR hittability vs a league-average hitter · longer + greener = easier to take deep
vs LHB · 1.1 HR/9 · 1 HR in 42 PA
vs RHB · 1.1 HR/9 · 2 HR in 77 PA
Pitch mix · stuff · HR rating · swing-and-miss · contact
Splits · home/away & batter hand
| HR/9 | HR | Barrel | FB% | K% | ERA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 0.87 | 1 | — | — | 27% | 3.48 |
| Away | 0.77 | 1 | — | — | 21% | 3.86 |
| vs LHB | 1.10 | 1 | 16% | 25% | 22% | — |
| vs RHB | 1.10 | 2 | 16% | 25% | 23% | — |
HR = home runs allowed (season-to-date). ERA isn’t reported by batter hand, and barrel/FB% aren’t available by home/away — those cells show —.
Pitcher summary · vs LHB
Blake Treinen carries a 1.04 HR/9. LAD ranks 5th in HR factor for LH hitters.
Edgardo Henriquez • RHP (LAD)TB @ LAD | vs TB2/0 W–L • 3.42 ERA • 28 Ks • 1.06 WHIP0.8 HR/9 • 13% Barrel • 18% FB • 25% K • 3.42 ERA (H 1.46 / A 5.14)◐ Homer-prone on the year, quieter last 30.72hittability
Edgardo Henriquez • RHP (LAD)
TB @ LAD | vs TB
2/0 W–L • 3.42 ERA • 28 Ks • 1.06 WHIP
0.8 HR/9 • 13% Barrel • 18% FB • 25% K • 3.42 ERA (H 1.46 / A 5.14)
◐ Homer-prone on the year, quieter last 3
0.72
hittability
Last 3 games · IP / pitches / HR
◐ Homer-prone on the year, quieter last 3 Homer-prone over the full season — the quiet recent stretch is a small sample the model discounts.
06/12 1.0 IP · 16 P0 HR
06/11 0.2 IP · 15 P0 HR
06/07 1.2 IP · 24 P0 HR
Pitches to target · go-deep pitches
The pitches he's given up the most homers on — and the bats most likely to punish them.
vs lefty batsslider
Most likely to capitalize: Aranda 28%, Mullins 16%, Walls 6%
vs righty batsno clear target
Most likely to capitalize: Caminero 29%, Díaz 25%, Vilade 16%
HR hittability vs a league-average hitter · longer + greener = easier to take deep
vs LHB · 1.3 HR/9 · 2 HR in 50 PA
vs RHB · 0.6 HR/9 · 0 HR in 72 PA
Pitch mix · stuff · HR rating · swing-and-miss · contact
Splits · home/away & batter hand
| HR/9 | HR | Barrel | FB% | K% | ERA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 0.00 | 0 | — | — | 27% | 1.46 |
| Away | 0.64 | 1 | — | — | 25% | 5.14 |
| vs LHB | 1.32 | 2 | 15% | 20% | 22% | — |
| vs RHB | 0.63 | 0 | 12% | 21% | 26% | — |
HR = home runs allowed (season-to-date). ERA isn’t reported by batter hand, and barrel/FB% aren’t available by home/away — those cells show —.
Pitcher summary · vs LHB
Edgardo Henriquez carries a 0.81 HR/9. LAD ranks 5th in HR factor for LH hitters.
Kyle Hurt • RHP (LAD)TB @ LAD | vs TB1/1 W–L • 4.22 ERA • 27 Ks • 1.22 WHIP0.9 HR/9 • 13% Barrel • 21% FB • 28% K • 4.22 ERA (H 2.61 / A 5.73)▲ Easier to take deep lately0.67hittability
Kyle Hurt • RHP (LAD)
TB @ LAD | vs TB
1/1 W–L • 4.22 ERA • 27 Ks • 1.22 WHIP
0.9 HR/9 • 13% Barrel • 21% FB • 28% K • 4.22 ERA (H 2.61 / A 5.73)
▲ Easier to take deep lately
0.67
hittability
Last 3 games · IP / pitches / HR
▲ Easier to take deep lately This pitcher is trending toward giving up home runs.
06/10 0.1 IP · 20 P1 HR
06/07 1.1 IP · 22 P0 HR
06/04 1.0 IP · 15 P0 HR
Pitches to target · go-deep pitches
The pitches he's given up the most homers on — and the bats most likely to punish them.
vs lefty batschange
Most likely to capitalize: Aranda 28%, Mullins 16%, Walls 6%
vs righty batschange
Most likely to capitalize: Caminero 29%, Díaz 25%, Vilade 16%
HR hittability vs a league-average hitter · longer + greener = easier to take deep
vs LHB · 1.1 HR/9 · 1 HR in 40 PA
vs RHB · 0.9 HR/9 · 1 HR in 66 PA
Pitch mix · stuff · HR rating · swing-and-miss · contact
Splits · home/away & batter hand
| HR/9 | HR | Barrel | FB% | K% | ERA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 0.87 | 1 | — | — | 34% | 2.61 |
| Away | 0.82 | 1 | — | — | 28% | 5.73 |
| vs LHB | 1.12 | 1 | 13% | 25% | 28% | — |
| vs RHB | 0.92 | 1 | 13% | 20% | 25% | — |
HR = home runs allowed (season-to-date). ERA isn’t reported by batter hand, and barrel/FB% aren’t available by home/away — those cells show —.
Pitcher summary · vs LHB
Kyle Hurt carries a 0.89 HR/9 and gave up 1 in his last outing. LAD ranks 5th in HR factor for LH hitters.
Will Klein • RHP (LAD)TB @ LAD | vs TB2/2 W–L • 2.25 ERA • 32 Ks • 1.29 WHIP0.5 HR/9 • 8% Barrel • 23% FB • 24% K • 2.25 ERA (H 1.35 / A 3.07)▬ Holding steady0.60hittability
Will Klein • RHP (LAD)
TB @ LAD | vs TB
2/2 W–L • 2.25 ERA • 32 Ks • 1.29 WHIP
0.5 HR/9 • 8% Barrel • 23% FB • 24% K • 2.25 ERA (H 1.35 / A 3.07)
▬ Holding steady
0.60
hittability
Last 3 games · IP / pitches / HR
▬ Holding steady No big change in his home-run risk lately.
06/11 1.0 IP · 22 P0 HR
06/09 1.1 IP · 21 P0 HR
06/04 0.1 IP · 16 P1 HR
Not enough data for this view.
HR hittability vs a league-average hitter · longer + greener = easier to take deep
vs LHB · 0.9 HR/9 · 1 HR in 72 PA
vs RHB · 0.6 HR/9 · 0 HR in 71 PA
Pitch mix · stuff · HR rating · swing-and-miss · contact
Splits · home/away & batter hand
| HR/9 | HR | Barrel | FB% | K% | ERA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 0.00 | 0 | — | — | 30% | 1.35 |
| Away | 0.61 | 1 | — | — | 25% | 3.07 |
| vs LHB | 0.88 | 1 | 11% | 25% | 23% | — |
| vs RHB | 0.64 | 0 | 11% | 22% | 25% | — |
HR = home runs allowed (season-to-date). ERA isn’t reported by batter hand, and barrel/FB% aren’t available by home/away — those cells show —.
Pitcher summary · vs LHB
Will Klein carries a 0.54 HR/9 and gave up 0 in his last outing (1 over his last 3). LAD ranks 5th in HR factor for LH hitters.
Pick who he’ll face
Matchup vs Eric LauerA
Arms like Eric Lauer
Most similar arsenals (velocity, movement, mix): Mitch Farris, Jeffrey Springs, Dietrich Enns, Eduardo Rodriguez, Noah Cameron, Mitchell Parker.
vs arms like this (since 2025), 0 HR in 16 PA (0.0% · league ~3%).
Matchup vs Jonathan HernándezA · ×1.13
Matchup vs Jack DreyerA · ×1.20
Arms like Jack Dreyer
Most similar arsenals (velocity, movement, mix): Alex Vesia, Tanner Scott, Robbie Ray, Yusei Kikuchi, Jacob Latz, Dylan Lee.
vs arms like this (since 2025), 0 HR in 12 PA (0.0% · league ~3%).
Matchup vs Tanner ScottA · ×1.15
Arms like Tanner Scott
Most similar arsenals (velocity, movement, mix): Jack Dreyer, Mason Montgomery, Justin Wrobleski, Alex Vesia, Carlos Rodón, Erik Sabrowski.
vs arms like this (since 2025), 0 HR in 13 PA (0.0% · league ~3%).
Matchup vs Alex VesiaA · ×1.16
Arms like Alex Vesia
Most similar arsenals (velocity, movement, mix): Jack Dreyer, Brent Headrick, Robbie Ray, Jacob Latz, Tanner Scott, Erik Sabrowski.
vs arms like this (since 2025), 0 HR in 15 PA (0.0% · league ~3%).
Matchup vs Blake TreinenA · ×1.22
Arms like Blake Treinen
Most similar arsenals (velocity, movement, mix): Colin Holderman, Eduard Bazardo, Dustin May, Justin Lawrence, Nolan McLean, Anthony Bender.
vs arms like this (since 2025), 0 HR in 15 PA (0.0% · league ~3%).
Matchup vs Edgardo HenriquezA · ×1.18
Arms like Edgardo Henriquez
Most similar arsenals (velocity, movement, mix): Luis Medina, David Morgan, Jack Leiter, Luinder Avila, Chase Dollander, Tyler Glasnow.
vs arms like this (since 2025), 0 HR in 15 PA (0.0% · league ~3%).
Matchup vs Kyle HurtA · ×1.17
Matchup vs Will KleinA · ×1.29
Arms like Will Klein
Most similar arsenals (velocity, movement, mix): Gavin Williams, Grant Taylor, Didier Fuentes, Antonio Senzatela, Nick Pivetta, Cam Schlittler.
vs arms like this (since 2025), 0 HR in 23 PA (0.0% · league ~3%).
Kyle Stowers LMIA AWAY vs Zack Wheeler R · PHIwind 1.00park 1.10brl 18%recent 20% HOT27%MatchupC+265
Kyle Stowers L
MIA AWAY vs Zack Wheeler R · PHI
wind 1.00park 1.10brl 18%recent 20% HOT
27%
MatchupC
+265
Kyle Stowers L
MIA AWAY vs Zack Wheeler R · PHI
wind 1.00park 1.10brl 18%recent 20% HOT
27%
Matchup summary · vs Zack Wheeler
Batter Summary ➖ Steady
Stowers has hit all 5 of his HRs off RHP, 49% hard-hit that side. 1 of his 5 HRs have come on the road, slugging .344 there. Stowers has been hot against arms like this lately.
Form Last ~3 weeks (recency-weighted): .416 xwOBAcon (lg .372), 20% well-hit (lg 14%), 37% hard-hit · 2 HR in 53 PA. Right around league — no real trend either way.
Ranking Reasoning
Strong HR spot.
He's vulnerable to lefties (1.4 HR/9), the park favors LH power and big power vs RHP (17% barrels).
He's vulnerable to lefties (1.4 HR/9), the park favors LH power and big power vs RHP (17% barrels).
⚾ vs Wheeler (career): 1/8 AB | 0 HR | 5K
Pitch by Pitch
Pitch-by-pitch · Wheeler throws / Stowers hits
Stuff & usage = the arm’s; whiff / contact / EV / barrel / air-ground / HR = Stowers’s 2026 vs RHP · green = bat’s edge
4-SeamSt 7446% used
Whiff
26%
Contact
74%
EV
92
Barrel
5%
Air/Gnd
32/39
HR
1
38 BBE
CutterSt 8215% used
Whiff
30%
Contact
70%
EV
83
Barrel
0%
Air/Gnd
0/75
HR
0
4 BBE
CurveSt 8314% used
Whiff
31%
Contact
69%
EV
86
Barrel
0%
Air/Gnd
25/50
HR
1
4 BBE
SplitterSt 6814% used
Whiff
43%
Contact
57%
EV
90
Barrel
0%
Air/Gnd
14/86
HR
1
7 BBE
SweeperSt 746% used
Whiff
38%
Contact
62%
EV
—
Barrel
—
Air/Gnd
—
HR
—
thin 2026
SinkerSt 764% used
Whiff
20%
Contact
80%
EV
96
Barrel
12%
Air/Gnd
12/62
HR
0
8 BBE
Pitch-by-pitch · Shugart throws / Stowers hits
Stuff & usage = the arm’s; whiff / contact / EV / barrel / air-ground / HR = Stowers’s 2026 vs RHP · green = bat’s edge
Cutter—28% used
Whiff
30%
Contact
70%
EV
83
Barrel
0%
Air/Gnd
0/75
HR
0
4 BBE
Sweeper—25% used
Whiff
38%
Contact
62%
EV
—
Barrel
—
Air/Gnd
—
HR
—
thin 2026
4-Seam—21% used
Whiff
26%
Contact
74%
EV
92
Barrel
5%
Air/Gnd
32/39
HR
1
38 BBE
Change—16% used
Whiff
40%
Contact
60%
EV
94
Barrel
0%
Air/Gnd
23/38
HR
0
13 BBE
Sinker—9% used
Whiff
20%
Contact
80%
EV
96
Barrel
12%
Air/Gnd
12/62
HR
0
8 BBE
Pitch-by-pitch · Banks throws / Stowers hits
Stuff & usage = the arm’s; whiff / contact / EV / barrel / air-ground / HR = Stowers’s 2026 vs LHP · green = bat’s edge
Sweeper—32% used
Whiff
25%
Contact
75%
EV
91
Barrel
0%
Air/Gnd
25/25
HR
0
4 BBE
Sinker—28% used
Whiff
15%
Contact
85%
EV
82
Barrel
0%
Air/Gnd
0/71
HR
0
7 BBE
Slider—26% used
Whiff
20%
Contact
80%
EV
84
Barrel
0%
Air/Gnd
17/50
HR
0
6 BBE
4-Seam—14% used
Whiff
29%
Contact
71%
EV
87
Barrel
0%
Air/Gnd
14/43
HR
0
7 BBE
Pitch-by-pitch · Kerkering throws / Stowers hits
Stuff & usage = the arm’s; whiff / contact / EV / barrel / air-ground / HR = Stowers’s 2026 vs RHP · green = bat’s edge
Sweeper—48% used
Whiff
38%
Contact
62%
EV
—
Barrel
—
Air/Gnd
—
HR
—
thin 2026
4-Seam—47% used
Whiff
26%
Contact
74%
EV
92
Barrel
5%
Air/Gnd
32/39
HR
1
38 BBE
Splitter—4% used
Whiff
43%
Contact
57%
EV
90
Barrel
0%
Air/Gnd
14/86
HR
1
7 BBE
Pitch-by-pitch · Alvarado throws / Stowers hits
Stuff & usage = the arm’s; whiff / contact / EV / barrel / air-ground / HR = Stowers’s 2026 vs LHP · green = bat’s edge
Sinker—67% used
Whiff
15%
Contact
85%
EV
82
Barrel
0%
Air/Gnd
0/71
HR
0
7 BBE
Cutter—32% used
Whiff
75%
Contact
25%
EV
—
Barrel
—
Air/Gnd
—
HR
—
thin 2026
Pitch-by-pitch · Keller throws / Stowers hits
Stuff & usage = the arm’s; whiff / contact / EV / barrel / air-ground / HR = Stowers’s 2026 vs RHP · green = bat’s edge
4-Seam—55% used
Whiff
26%
Contact
74%
EV
92
Barrel
5%
Air/Gnd
32/39
HR
1
38 BBE
Change—26% used
Whiff
40%
Contact
60%
EV
94
Barrel
0%
Air/Gnd
23/38
HR
0
13 BBE
Slider—18% used
Whiff
41%
Contact
59%
EV
96
Barrel
14%
Air/Gnd
57/0
HR
1
7 BBE
Pitch-by-pitch · Mayza throws / Stowers hits
Stuff & usage = the arm’s; whiff / contact / EV / barrel / air-ground / HR = Stowers’s 2026 vs LHP · green = bat’s edge
Sinker—68% used
Whiff
15%
Contact
85%
EV
82
Barrel
0%
Air/Gnd
0/71
HR
0
7 BBE
Slider—31% used
Whiff
20%
Contact
80%
EV
84
Barrel
0%
Air/Gnd
17/50
HR
0
6 BBE
Pitch-by-pitch · Bowlan throws / Stowers hits
Stuff & usage = the arm’s; whiff / contact / EV / barrel / air-ground / HR = Stowers’s 2026 vs RHP · green = bat’s edge
4-Seam—46% used
Whiff
26%
Contact
74%
EV
92
Barrel
5%
Air/Gnd
32/39
HR
1
38 BBE
Change—19% used
Whiff
40%
Contact
60%
EV
94
Barrel
0%
Air/Gnd
23/38
HR
0
13 BBE
Slider—18% used
Whiff
41%
Contact
59%
EV
96
Barrel
14%
Air/Gnd
57/0
HR
1
7 BBE
Curve—11% used
Whiff
31%
Contact
69%
EV
86
Barrel
0%
Air/Gnd
25/50
HR
1
4 BBE
Sinker—5% used
Whiff
20%
Contact
80%
EV
96
Barrel
12%
Air/Gnd
12/62
HR
0
8 BBE
Pitch-by-pitch · Duran throws / Stowers hits
Stuff & usage = the arm’s; whiff / contact / EV / barrel / air-ground / HR = Stowers’s 2026 vs RHP · green = bat’s edge
4-Seam—41% used
Whiff
26%
Contact
74%
EV
92
Barrel
5%
Air/Gnd
32/39
HR
1
38 BBE
Splitter—36% used
Whiff
43%
Contact
57%
EV
90
Barrel
0%
Air/Gnd
14/86
HR
1
7 BBE
Knuckle-Curve—20% used
Whiff
50%
Contact
50%
EV
—
Barrel
—
Air/Gnd
—
HR
—
thin 2026
🎯 Target
Matchup-Fit · barrel alignment vs Zack Wheeler’s arsenal
4-Seam 46% usedbarrels 5% · allows 7% · 1 HR
Cutter 15% usedbarrels 0% · allows 0%
Curve 14% usedbarrels 0% · allows 0% · 1 HR
Splitter 14% usedbarrels 0% · allows 7% · 1 HR
Sweeper 6% usedbarrels — · allows 14%
Air / Park
Pulls 20% in the air; pull side RF — park ×1.20 → park+wind fits his pull power.
Recent form · last 5
Barrel 10% · EV 89 · 1 HR over his last 5.
Matchup-Fit · barrel alignment vs Chase Shugart’s arsenal
Cutter 28% usedbarrels 0% · allows 0%
Sweeper 25% usedbarrels — · allows —
4-Seam 21% usedbarrels 5% · allows — · 1 HR
Change 16% usedbarrels 0% · allows 0%
Sinker 9% usedbarrels 12% · allows —
Air / Park
Pulls 20% in the air; pull side RF — park ×1.20 → park+wind fits his pull power.
Recent form · last 5
Barrel 10% · EV 89 · 1 HR over his last 5.
Matchup-Fit · barrel alignment vs Tanner Banks’s arsenal
Sweeper 32% usedbarrels 0% · allows 0%
Sinker 28% usedbarrels 0% · allows 0%
Slider 26% usedbarrels 0% · allows 0%
4-Seam 14% usedbarrels 0% · allows —
Air / Park
Pulls 20% in the air; pull side RF — park ×1.20 → park+wind fits his pull power.
Recent form · last 5
Barrel 10% · EV 89 · 1 HR over his last 5.
Matchup-Fit · barrel alignment vs Orion Kerkering’s arsenal
Sweeper 48% usedbarrels — · allows 0%
4-Seam 47% usedbarrels 5% · allows 8% · 1 HR
Air / Park
Pulls 20% in the air; pull side RF — park ×1.20 → park+wind fits his pull power.
Recent form · last 5
Barrel 10% · EV 89 · 1 HR over his last 5.
Matchup-Fit · barrel alignment vs José Alvarado’s arsenal
Sinker 67% usedbarrels 0% · allows 0%
Cutter 32% usedbarrels — · allows 0%
Air / Park
Pulls 20% in the air; pull side RF — park ×1.20 → park+wind fits his pull power.
Recent form · last 5
Barrel 10% · EV 89 · 1 HR over his last 5.
Matchup-Fit · barrel alignment vs Brad Keller’s arsenal
4-Seam 55% usedbarrels 5% · allows 7% · 1 HR
Change 26% usedbarrels 0% · allows 0%
Slider 18% usedbarrels 14% · allows 0% · 1 HR
Air / Park
Pulls 20% in the air; pull side RF — park ×1.20 → park+wind fits his pull power.
Recent form · last 5
Barrel 10% · EV 89 · 1 HR over his last 5.
Matchup-Fit · barrel alignment vs Tim Mayza’s arsenal
Sinker 68% usedbarrels 0% · allows 0%
Slider 31% usedbarrels 0% · allows 6%
Air / Park
Pulls 20% in the air; pull side RF — park ×1.20 → park+wind fits his pull power.
Recent form · last 5
Barrel 10% · EV 89 · 1 HR over his last 5.
Matchup-Fit · barrel alignment vs Jonathan Bowlan’s arsenal
4-Seam 46% usedbarrels 5% · allows 18% · 1 HR
Change 19% usedbarrels 0% · allows 0%
Slider 18% usedbarrels 14% · allows 17% · 1 HR
Curve 11% usedbarrels 0% · allows — · 1 HR
Sinker 5% usedbarrels 12% · allows —
Air / Park
Pulls 20% in the air; pull side RF — park ×1.20 → park+wind fits his pull power.
Recent form · last 5
Barrel 10% · EV 89 · 1 HR over his last 5.
Matchup-Fit · barrel alignment vs Jhoan Duran’s arsenal
4-Seam 41% usedbarrels 5% · allows 0% · 1 HR
Splitter 36% usedbarrels 0% · allows 8% · 1 HR
Knuckle-Curve 20% usedbarrels — · allows —
Air / Park
Pulls 20% in the air; pull side RF — park ×1.20 → park+wind fits his pull power.
Recent form · last 5
Barrel 10% · EV 89 · 1 HR over his last 5.
Matchup Lab
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Batter Stats
Last 5 games · H/AB · K · GB · FB · barrel · EV · HR/FB · HR
| H/AB | K | GB | FB | BRL | EV | HR/FB | HR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5G | 4/17 | 7 | 50% | 30% | 10% | 89 | 33% | 1 |
| 06/14 | 1/5 | 2 | 67% | 0% | 0% | 79 | — | 0 |
| 06/13 | 0/3 | 2 | 0% | 100% | 0% | 91 | 0% | 0 |
| 06/12 | 2/4 | 0 | 50% | 25% | 0% | 88 | 0% | 0 |
| 06/11 | 0/2 | 2 | — | — | — | — | — | 0 |
| 06/10 | 1/3 | 1 | 50% | 50% | 50% | 104 | 100% | 1 |
Swing & Bat Tracking (410 swings)
bat tracking
Bat speed74.8 mph
Swing length6.8 ft
Attack angle13.8°
contact
swing timing
Early24%
On-time65%
Late11%
miss profile
Over24%
Under23%
Tied-up17%
Centered59%
Flailed24%
Batter power & contact · longer + greener = more HR-likely
vs LHP · 0 HR in 46 PA
vs RHP · 5 HR in 177 PA
Matchup strength · longer + greener = more HR-favorable
matchup strength
supporting
Home / Away HR splits · season-to-date
Home HOME4 HR / 99 PA · 4.0%
Home · .400 SLG
Away AWAY1 HR / 107 PA · 0.9%
Away · .344 SLG
Park fit · spray vs this yard
Pulls 20% of contact in the air; his pull side is RF here — HR factor ×1.20 → park fits his pull power.
Pitcher
Zack Wheeler • RHP (PHI)MIA @ PHI | vs MIA5/1 W–L (Tied–34th) • 2.22 ERA • 53 Ks (Tied–93rd) • 0.85 WHIP1.2 HR/9 • 14% Barrel • 22% FB • 24% K • 2.22 ERA (H 2.33 / A 2.17)▲ Easier to take deep lately0.81hittability
Zack Wheeler • RHP (PHI)
MIA @ PHI | vs MIA
5/1 W–L (Tied–34th) • 2.22 ERA • 53 Ks (Tied–93rd) • 0.85 WHIP
1.2 HR/9 • 14% Barrel • 22% FB • 24% K • 2.22 ERA (H 2.33 / A 2.17)
▲ Easier to take deep lately
0.81
hittability
Last 3 starts · IP / pitches / HR
▲ Easier to take deep lately This pitcher is trending toward giving up home runs.
06/09 6.0 IP · 96 P1 HR
06/04 7.0 IP · 104 P1 HR
05/29 6.0 IP · 90 P4 HR
Pitches to target · go-deep pitches
The pitches he's given up the most homers on — and the bats most likely to punish them.
vs lefty bats4-seam · cutter
Most likely to capitalize: Stowers 27%, Caissie 15%, Hicks 7%
vs righty batsno clear target
Most likely to capitalize: Hernández 24%, Sanoja 14%, Mack 8%
HR hittability vs a league-average hitter · longer + greener = easier to take deep
vs LHB · 1.4 HR/9 · 5 HR in 126 PA
vs RHB · 1.0 HR/9 · 2 HR in 87 PA
Pitch mix · stuff · HR rating · swing-and-miss · contact
spin 1:42
spin 1:41
spin 7:51
spin 2:09
spin 1:05
spin 7:49
spin 1:42
spin 1:41
spin 7:51
spin 2:09
spin 1:05
spin 7:49
spin 1:42
spin 1:41
spin 7:51
spin 2:09
spin 7:49
Where he’s hittable · xSLG allowed by zone (vs LHB)
Green = he gives up slug there. Tap a band → out/mid/in cells → each pitch’s xSLG + a cyan contact-allowed bar. Cell splits use 2025–26; display only.
Splits · home/away & batter hand
| HR/9 | HR | Barrel | FB% | K% | ERA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 0.93 | 2 | — | — | 25% | 2.33 |
| Away | 1.21 | 5 | — | — | 25% | 2.17 |
| vs LHB | 1.39 | 5 | 15% | 22% | 23% | — |
| vs RHB | 1.03 | 2 | 13% | 24% | 25% | — |
HR = home runs allowed (season-to-date). ERA isn’t reported by batter hand, and barrel/FB% aren’t available by home/away — those cells show —.
Pitcher summary · vs LHB
Zack Wheeler carries a 1.24 HR/9 and gave up 1 in his last outing (6 over his last 3). Lefties have taken him deep 5 of 7 times (1.4 HR/9 to LHB). PHI ranks 4th in HR factor for LH hitters.
Chase Shugart • RHP (PHI)MIA @ PHI | vs MIA2/0 W–L • 3.13 ERA • 25 Ks • 1.09 WHIP1.1 HR/9 • 12% Barrel • 24% FB • 24% K • 3.13 ERA (H 2.45 / A 3.75)◐ Homer-prone on the year, quieter last 31.01hittability
Chase Shugart • RHP (PHI)
MIA @ PHI | vs MIA
2/0 W–L • 3.13 ERA • 25 Ks • 1.09 WHIP
1.1 HR/9 • 12% Barrel • 24% FB • 24% K • 3.13 ERA (H 2.45 / A 3.75)
◐ Homer-prone on the year, quieter last 3
1.01
hittability
Last 3 games · IP / pitches / HR
◐ Homer-prone on the year, quieter last 3 Homer-prone over the full season — the quiet recent stretch is a small sample the model discounts.
06/14 1.1 IP · 20 P0 HR
06/12 1.0 IP · 12 P0 HR
06/10 0.1 IP · 21 P0 HR
Pitches to target · go-deep pitches
The pitches he's given up the most homers on — and the bats most likely to punish them.
vs lefty bats4-seam
Most likely to capitalize: Stowers 27%, Caissie 15%, Hicks 7%
vs righty bats4-seam · cutter
Most likely to capitalize: Hernández 24%, Sanoja 14%, Mack 8%
HR hittability vs a league-average hitter · longer + greener = easier to take deep
vs LHB · 1.0 HR/9 · 1 HR in 51 PA
vs RHB · 1.2 HR/9 · 2 HR in 66 PA
Pitch mix · stuff · HR rating · swing-and-miss · contact
Splits · home/away & batter hand
| HR/9 | HR | Barrel | FB% | K% | ERA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.64 | 2 | — | — | 39% | 2.45 |
| Away | 0.75 | 1 | — | — | 16% | 3.75 |
| vs LHB | 1.02 | 1 | 11% | 25% | 24% | — |
| vs RHB | 1.18 | 2 | 15% | 22% | 22% | — |
HR = home runs allowed (season-to-date). ERA isn’t reported by batter hand, and barrel/FB% aren’t available by home/away — those cells show —.
Pitcher summary · vs LHB
Chase Shugart carries a 1.05 HR/9. PHI ranks 4th in HR factor for LH hitters.
Tanner Banks • LHP (PHI)MIA @ PHI | vs MIA0/4 W–L • 5.96 ERA • 30 Ks • 1.91 WHIP1.1 HR/9 • 10% Barrel • 30% FB • 23% K • 5.96 ERA (H 4.80 / A 7.59)▬ Holding steady0.95hittability
Tanner Banks • LHP (PHI)
MIA @ PHI | vs MIA
0/4 W–L • 5.96 ERA • 30 Ks • 1.91 WHIP
1.1 HR/9 • 10% Barrel • 30% FB • 23% K • 5.96 ERA (H 4.80 / A 7.59)
▬ Holding steady
0.95
hittability
Last 3 outings · IP / pitches / HR
▬ Holding steady No big change in his home-run risk lately.
06/14 1.0 IP · 22 P relief0 HR
06/12 1.0 IP · 28 P0 HR
06/06 2.1 IP · 27 P relief0 HR
Pitches to target · go-deep pitches
The pitches he's given up the most homers on — and the bats most likely to punish them.
vs lefty batsno clear target
Most likely to capitalize: Stowers 27%, Caissie 15%, Hicks 7%
vs righty bats4-seam
Most likely to capitalize: Hernández 24%, Sanoja 14%, Mack 8%
HR hittability vs a league-average hitter · longer + greener = easier to take deep
vs LHB · 0.7 HR/9 · 0 HR in 59 PA
vs RHB · 1.5 HR/9 · 4 HR in 86 PA
Pitch mix · stuff · HR rating · swing-and-miss · contact
Splits · home/away & batter hand
| HR/9 | HR | Barrel | FB% | K% | ERA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 0.60 | 1 | — | — | 24% | 4.80 |
| Away | 0.00 | 0 | — | — | 23% | 7.59 |
| vs LHB | 0.69 | 0 | 12% | 24% | 24% | — |
| vs RHB | 1.49 | 4 | 10% | 30% | 22% | — |
HR = home runs allowed (season-to-date). ERA isn’t reported by batter hand, and barrel/FB% aren’t available by home/away — those cells show —.
Pitcher summary · vs LHB
Tanner Banks carries a 1.09 HR/9. PHI ranks 4th in HR factor for LH hitters.
Orion Kerkering • RHP (PHI)MIA @ PHI | vs MIA3/0 W–L • 2.03 ERA • 29 Ks • 1.13 WHIP0.8 HR/9 • 10% Barrel • 31% FB • 24% K • 2.03 ERA (H 1.26 / A 2.92)▼ Tougher to homer off lately0.89hittability
Orion Kerkering • RHP (PHI)
MIA @ PHI | vs MIA
3/0 W–L • 2.03 ERA • 29 Ks • 1.13 WHIP
0.8 HR/9 • 10% Barrel • 31% FB • 24% K • 2.03 ERA (H 1.26 / A 2.92)
▼ Tougher to homer off lately
0.89
hittability
Last 3 games · IP / pitches / HR
▼ Tougher to homer off lately This pitcher is trending the right way — fewer homers.
06/13 1.0 IP · 17 P0 HR
06/09 1.1 IP · 22 P0 HR
06/07 1.0 IP · 27 P0 HR
Pitches to target · go-deep pitches
The pitches he's given up the most homers on — and the bats most likely to punish them.
vs lefty batssweeper
Most likely to capitalize: Stowers 27%, Caissie 15%, Hicks 7%
vs righty bats4-seam
Most likely to capitalize: Hernández 24%, Sanoja 14%, Mack 8%
HR hittability vs a league-average hitter · longer + greener = easier to take deep
vs LHB · 1.1 HR/9 · 1 HR in 46 PA
vs RHB · 0.9 HR/9 · 1 HR in 70 PA
Pitch mix · stuff · HR rating · swing-and-miss · contact
Splits · home/away & batter hand
| HR/9 | HR | Barrel | FB% | K% | ERA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 0.63 | 1 | — | — | 27% | 1.26 |
| Away | 0.73 | 1 | — | — | 25% | 2.92 |
| vs LHB | 1.06 | 1 | 12% | 28% | 26% | — |
| vs RHB | 0.89 | 1 | 11% | 27% | 22% | — |
HR = home runs allowed (season-to-date). ERA isn’t reported by batter hand, and barrel/FB% aren’t available by home/away — those cells show —.
Pitcher summary · vs LHB
Orion Kerkering carries a 0.84 HR/9. PHI ranks 4th in HR factor for LH hitters.
José Alvarado • LHP (PHI)MIA @ PHI | vs MIA3/1 W–L • 5.76 ERA • 33 Ks • 1.64 WHIP1.3 HR/9 • 13% Barrel • 24% FB • 26% K • 5.76 ERA (H 8.25 / A 3.46)▲ Easier to take deep lately0.87hittability
José Alvarado • LHP (PHI)
MIA @ PHI | vs MIA
3/1 W–L • 5.76 ERA • 33 Ks • 1.64 WHIP
1.3 HR/9 • 13% Barrel • 24% FB • 26% K • 5.76 ERA (H 8.25 / A 3.46)
▲ Easier to take deep lately
0.87
hittability
Last 3 games · IP / pitches / HR
▲ Easier to take deep lately This pitcher is trending toward giving up home runs.
06/13 1.0 IP · 15 P1 HR
06/10 1.0 IP · 19 P0 HR
06/09 0.2 IP · 12 P0 HR
Pitches to target · go-deep pitches
The pitches he's given up the most homers on — and the bats most likely to punish them.
vs lefty batsno clear target
Most likely to capitalize: Stowers 27%, Caissie 15%, Hicks 7%
vs righty batscutter
Most likely to capitalize: Hernández 24%, Sanoja 14%, Mack 8%
HR hittability vs a league-average hitter · longer + greener = easier to take deep
vs LHB · 1.0 HR/9 · 1 HR in 58 PA
vs RHB · 1.6 HR/9 · 4 HR in 79 PA
Pitch mix · stuff · HR rating · swing-and-miss · contact
Splits · home/away & batter hand
| HR/9 | HR | Barrel | FB% | K% | ERA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.50 | 2 | — | — | 23% | 8.25 |
| Away | 0.69 | 1 | — | — | 32% | 3.46 |
| vs LHB | 0.97 | 1 | 11% | 21% | 23% | — |
| vs RHB | 1.56 | 4 | 16% | 27% | 27% | — |
HR = home runs allowed (season-to-date). ERA isn’t reported by batter hand, and barrel/FB% aren’t available by home/away — those cells show —.
Pitcher summary · vs LHB
José Alvarado carries a 1.33 HR/9 and gave up 1 in his last outing. Lefties have taken him deep 1 of 5 times (1.0 HR/9 to LHB). He owns a 8.25 ERA at home. PHI ranks 4th in HR factor for LH hitters.
Brad Keller • RHP (PHI)MIA @ PHI | vs MIA2/1 W–L • 4.15 ERA • 31 Ks • 1.35 WHIP1.1 HR/9 • 14% Barrel • 23% FB • 23% K • 4.15 ERA (H 4.60 / A 3.68)◐ Homer-prone on the year, quieter last 30.87hittability
Brad Keller • RHP (PHI)
MIA @ PHI | vs MIA
2/1 W–L • 4.15 ERA • 31 Ks • 1.35 WHIP
1.1 HR/9 • 14% Barrel • 23% FB • 23% K • 4.15 ERA (H 4.60 / A 3.68)
◐ Homer-prone on the year, quieter last 3
0.87
hittability
Last 3 games · IP / pitches / HR
◐ Homer-prone on the year, quieter last 3 Homer-prone over the full season — the quiet recent stretch is a small sample the model discounts.
06/13 1.0 IP · 32 P0 HR
06/10 0.2 IP · 3 P0 HR
06/08 1.0 IP · 20 P0 HR
Pitches to target · go-deep pitches
The pitches he's given up the most homers on — and the bats most likely to punish them.
vs lefty batsslider
Most likely to capitalize: Stowers 27%, Caissie 15%, Hicks 7%
vs righty batssweeper · 4-seam
Most likely to capitalize: Hernández 24%, Sanoja 14%, Mack 8%
HR hittability vs a league-average hitter · longer + greener = easier to take deep
vs LHB · 0.9 HR/9 · 1 HR in 68 PA
vs RHB · 1.4 HR/9 · 3 HR in 74 PA
Pitch mix · stuff · HR rating · swing-and-miss · contact
Splits · home/away & batter hand
| HR/9 | HR | Barrel | FB% | K% | ERA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.15 | 2 | — | — | 23% | 4.60 |
| Away | 1.23 | 2 | — | — | 24% | 3.68 |
| vs LHB | 0.91 | 1 | 13% | 22% | 24% | — |
| vs RHB | 1.36 | 3 | 15% | 24% | 22% | — |
HR = home runs allowed (season-to-date). ERA isn’t reported by batter hand, and barrel/FB% aren’t available by home/away — those cells show —.
Pitcher summary · vs LHB
Brad Keller carries a 1.11 HR/9. Lefties have taken him deep 1 of 4 times (0.6 HR/9 to LHB). PHI ranks 4th in HR factor for LH hitters.
Tim Mayza • LHP (PHI)MIA @ PHI | vs MIA2/1 W–L • 3.26 ERA • 29 Ks • 1.02 WHIP1.1 HR/9 • 9% Barrel • 21% FB • 23% K • 3.26 ERA (H 3.38 / A 3.09)▬ Holding steady0.83hittability
Tim Mayza • LHP (PHI)
MIA @ PHI | vs MIA
2/1 W–L • 3.26 ERA • 29 Ks • 1.02 WHIP
1.1 HR/9 • 9% Barrel • 21% FB • 23% K • 3.26 ERA (H 3.38 / A 3.09)
▬ Holding steady
0.83
hittability
Last 3 games · IP / pitches / HR
▬ Holding steady No big change in his home-run risk lately.
06/13 0.1 IP · 5 P0 HR
06/12 1.0 IP · 22 P0 HR
06/07 0.2 IP · 16 P0 HR
Pitches to target · go-deep pitches
The pitches he's given up the most homers on — and the bats most likely to punish them.
vs lefty batsslider
Most likely to capitalize: Stowers 27%, Caissie 15%, Hicks 7%
vs righty batsslider
Most likely to capitalize: Hernández 24%, Sanoja 14%, Mack 8%
HR hittability vs a league-average hitter · longer + greener = easier to take deep
vs LHB · 0.9 HR/9 · 1 HR in 62 PA
vs RHB · 1.3 HR/9 · 3 HR in 77 PA
Pitch mix · stuff · HR rating · swing-and-miss · contact
Splits · home/away & batter hand
| HR/9 | HR | Barrel | FB% | K% | ERA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 0.48 | 1 | — | — | 24% | 3.38 |
| Away | 2.31 | 3 | — | — | 24% | 3.09 |
| vs LHB | 0.94 | 1 | 10% | 20% | 21% | — |
| vs RHB | 1.34 | 3 | 12% | 24% | 24% | — |
HR = home runs allowed (season-to-date). ERA isn’t reported by batter hand, and barrel/FB% aren’t available by home/away — those cells show —.
Pitcher summary · vs LHB
Tim Mayza carries a 1.13 HR/9. Lefties have taken him deep 1 of 4 times (0.6 HR/9 to LHB). PHI ranks 4th in HR factor for LH hitters.
Jonathan Bowlan • RHP (PHI)MIA @ PHI | vs MIA2/0 W–L • 3.92 ERA • 21 Ks • 1.11 WHIP0.9 HR/9 • 12% Barrel • 25% FB • 25% K • 3.92 ERA (H 3.68 / A 4.50)◐ Homer-prone on the year, quieter last 30.82hittability
Jonathan Bowlan • RHP (PHI)
MIA @ PHI | vs MIA
2/0 W–L • 3.92 ERA • 21 Ks • 1.11 WHIP
0.9 HR/9 • 12% Barrel • 25% FB • 25% K • 3.92 ERA (H 3.68 / A 4.50)
◐ Homer-prone on the year, quieter last 3
0.82
hittability
Last 3 games · IP / pitches / HR
◐ Homer-prone on the year, quieter last 3 Homer-prone over the full season — the quiet recent stretch is a small sample the model discounts.
06/10 0.1 IP · 4 P0 HR
06/07 2.0 IP · 19 P0 HR
06/05 1.0 IP · 21 P0 HR
Pitches to target · go-deep pitches
The pitches he's given up the most homers on — and the bats most likely to punish them.
vs lefty batsslider
Most likely to capitalize: Stowers 27%, Caissie 15%, Hicks 7%
vs righty batsno clear target
Most likely to capitalize: Hernández 24%, Sanoja 14%, Mack 8%
HR hittability vs a league-average hitter · longer + greener = easier to take deep
vs LHB · 1.2 HR/9 · 2 HR in 63 PA
vs RHB · 0.8 HR/9 · 0 HR in 44 PA
Pitch mix · stuff · HR rating · swing-and-miss · contact
Splits · home/away & batter hand
| HR/9 | HR | Barrel | FB% | K% | ERA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 0.61 | 1 | — | — | 26% | 3.68 |
| Away | 0.00 | 0 | — | — | 23% | 4.50 |
| vs LHB | 1.20 | 2 | 13% | 28% | 21% | — |
| vs RHB | 0.77 | 0 | 13% | 20% | 28% | — |
HR = home runs allowed (season-to-date). ERA isn’t reported by batter hand, and barrel/FB% aren’t available by home/away — those cells show —.
Pitcher summary · vs LHB
Jonathan Bowlan carries a 0.89 HR/9. PHI ranks 4th in HR factor for LH hitters.
Jhoan Duran • RHP (PHI)MIA @ PHI | vs MIA1/3 W–L • 1.90 ERA • 35 Ks • 0.97 WHIP0.7 HR/9 • 16% Barrel • 18% FB • 32% K • 1.90 ERA (H 1.98 / A 1.80)◐ Homer-prone on the year, quieter last 30.51hittability
Jhoan Duran • RHP (PHI)
MIA @ PHI | vs MIA
1/3 W–L • 1.90 ERA • 35 Ks • 0.97 WHIP
0.7 HR/9 • 16% Barrel • 18% FB • 32% K • 1.90 ERA (H 1.98 / A 1.80)
◐ Homer-prone on the year, quieter last 3
0.51
hittability
Last 3 games · IP / pitches / HR
◐ Homer-prone on the year, quieter last 3 Homer-prone over the full season — the quiet recent stretch is a small sample the model discounts.
06/13 1.0 IP · 11 P0 HR
06/10 1.0 IP · 10 P0 HR
06/09 0.0 IP · 8 P0 HR
Pitches to target · go-deep pitches
The pitches he's given up the most homers on — and the bats most likely to punish them.
vs lefty batssplit
Most likely to capitalize: Stowers 27%, Caissie 15%, Hicks 7%
vs righty batsno clear target
Most likely to capitalize: Hernández 24%, Sanoja 14%, Mack 8%
HR hittability vs a league-average hitter · longer + greener = easier to take deep
vs LHB · 1.0 HR/9 · 1 HR in 57 PA
vs RHB · 0.8 HR/9 · 0 HR in 46 PA
Pitch mix · stuff · HR rating · swing-and-miss · contact
Splits · home/away & batter hand
| HR/9 | HR | Barrel | FB% | K% | ERA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 0.66 | 1 | — | — | 47% | 1.98 |
| Away | 0.00 | 0 | — | — | 28% | 1.80 |
| vs LHB | 0.98 | 1 | 15% | 20% | 28% | — |
| vs RHB | 0.76 | 0 | 15% | 21% | 30% | — |
HR = home runs allowed (season-to-date). ERA isn’t reported by batter hand, and barrel/FB% aren’t available by home/away — those cells show —.
Pitcher summary · vs LHB
Jhoan Duran carries a 0.67 HR/9. PHI ranks 4th in HR factor for LH hitters.
Pick who he’ll face
Matchup vs Zack WheelerC
Arms like Zack Wheeler
Most similar arsenals (velocity, movement, mix): Yoendrys Gómez, Shohei Ohtani, Yohan Ramírez, Cody Bolton, Mitch Keller, Will Warren.
vs arms like this (since 2025), 2 HR in 16 PA (12.5% · league ~3%).
Matchup vs Chase ShugartA · ×1.18
Arms like Chase Shugart
Most similar arsenals (velocity, movement, mix): Zack Kelly, Luis Severino, Jake Woodford, Paul Blackburn, Erick Fedde, John Schreiber.
Matchup vs Tanner BanksB · ×1.07
Arms like Tanner Banks
Most similar arsenals (velocity, movement, mix): Kyle Hart, Daniel Lynch IV, Matt Gage, David Peterson, Yusei Kikuchi, Anthony Banda.
vs arms like this (since 2025), 0 HR in 13 PA (0.0% · league ~3%).
Matchup vs Orion KerkeringB · ×1.09
Arms like Orion Kerkering
Most similar arsenals (velocity, movement, mix): Yohan Ramírez, Anthony Nunez, Kai-Wei Teng, Griffin Jax, Jack Perkins, George Kirby.
vs arms like this (since 2025), 0 HR in 20 PA (0.0% · league ~3%).
Matchup vs José AlvaradoA · ×1.22
Arms like José Alvarado
Most similar arsenals (velocity, movement, mix): José A. Ferrer, Tim Mayza, Aaron Ashby, Adrian Morejon, Steven Matz, Wandy Peralta.
vs arms like this (since 2025), 0 HR in 11 PA (0.0% · league ~3%).
Matchup vs Brad KellerB · ×1.06
Arms like Brad Keller
Most similar arsenals (velocity, movement, mix): Juan Morillo, Will Vest, Jonathan Bowlan, Kyle Leahy, Caleb Kilian, Andrew Painter.
vs arms like this (since 2025), 0 HR in 17 PA (0.0% · league ~3%).
Matchup vs Tim MayzaB · ×1.09
Arms like Tim Mayza
Most similar arsenals (velocity, movement, mix): Wandy Peralta, José A. Ferrer, Gregory Soto, Ryan Borucki, Steven Matz, Anthony Banda.
Matchup vs Jonathan BowlanB · ×1.05
Arms like Jonathan Bowlan
Most similar arsenals (velocity, movement, mix): Jack Leiter, Will Vest, Luis Medina, Osvaldo Bido, Janson Junk, Nick Mears.
vs arms like this (since 2025), 1 HR in 22 PA (4.5% · league ~3%).
Matchup vs Jhoan DuranA · ×1.16
Arms like Jhoan Duran
Most similar arsenals (velocity, movement, mix): Paul Skenes, Louis Varland, Didier Fuentes, Shane Baz, Jack Perkins, Will Klein.
vs arms like this (since 2025), 1 HR in 28 PA (3.6% · league ~3%).
Bryce Harper LPHI HOME vs Ryan Gusto R · PHIwind 1.00park 1.10brl 16%recent 17% HOT27%MatchupB+265
Bryce Harper L
PHI HOME vs Ryan Gusto R · PHI
wind 1.00park 1.10brl 16%recent 17% HOT
27%
MatchupB
+265
Bryce Harper L
PHI HOME vs Ryan Gusto R · PHI
wind 1.00park 1.10brl 16%recent 17% HOT
27%
Matchup summary · vs Ryan Gusto
Batter Summary 📈 Trending up
Harper has 12 of his 15 HRs off RHP, 45% hard-hit that side. 7 of his 15 HRs have come at home, slugging .492 there. Harper has been hot against arms like this lately.
Form Last ~3 weeks (recency-weighted): .550 xwOBAcon (lg .372), 17% well-hit (lg 14%), 55% hard-hit · 3 HR in 53 PA. Recent contact quality is beating league — the rating catches the heat before the HR totals show it.
Ranking Reasoning
Strong HR spot.
The park favors LH power, big power vs RHP (17% barrels) and hot against this kind of arsenal.
The park favors LH power, big power vs RHP (17% barrels) and hot against this kind of arsenal.
🏟️ Homered here 21× at this park (since ’25)
Pitch by Pitch
Pitch-by-pitch · Petersen throws / Harper hits
Stuff & usage = the arm’s; whiff / contact / EV / barrel / air-ground / HR = Harper’s 2026 vs RHP · green = bat’s edge
4-Seam—59% used
Whiff
12%
Contact
88%
EV
97
Barrel
12%
Air/Gnd
33/38
HR
5
24 BBE
Slider—27% used
Whiff
50%
Contact
50%
EV
93
Barrel
15%
Air/Gnd
31/31
HR
1
13 BBE
Change—14% used
Whiff
28%
Contact
72%
EV
90
Barrel
10%
Air/Gnd
20/65
HR
1
20 BBE
Pitch-by-pitch · Zuber throws / Harper hits
Stuff & usage = the arm’s; whiff / contact / EV / barrel / air-ground / HR = Harper’s 2026 vs RHP · green = bat’s edge
4-Seam—34% used
Whiff
12%
Contact
88%
EV
97
Barrel
12%
Air/Gnd
33/38
HR
5
24 BBE
Sweeper—20% used
Whiff
30%
Contact
70%
EV
96
Barrel
25%
Air/Gnd
50/25
HR
3
8 BBE
Slider—20% used
Whiff
50%
Contact
50%
EV
93
Barrel
15%
Air/Gnd
31/31
HR
1
13 BBE
Change—18% used
Whiff
28%
Contact
72%
EV
90
Barrel
10%
Air/Gnd
20/65
HR
1
20 BBE
Sinker—7% used
Whiff
15%
Contact
85%
EV
90
Barrel
0%
Air/Gnd
13/73
HR
1
15 BBE
Pitch-by-pitch · Fairbanks throws / Harper hits
Stuff & usage = the arm’s; whiff / contact / EV / barrel / air-ground / HR = Harper’s 2026 vs RHP · green = bat’s edge
4-Seam—49% used
Whiff
12%
Contact
88%
EV
97
Barrel
12%
Air/Gnd
33/38
HR
5
24 BBE
Slider—34% used
Whiff
50%
Contact
50%
EV
93
Barrel
15%
Air/Gnd
31/31
HR
1
13 BBE
Cutter—10% used
Whiff
26%
Contact
74%
EV
90
Barrel
0%
Air/Gnd
27/36
HR
1
11 BBE
Change—7% used
Whiff
28%
Contact
72%
EV
90
Barrel
10%
Air/Gnd
20/65
HR
1
20 BBE
Pitch-by-pitch · Bachar throws / Harper hits
Stuff & usage = the arm’s; whiff / contact / EV / barrel / air-ground / HR = Harper’s 2026 vs RHP · green = bat’s edge
4-Seam—38% used
Whiff
12%
Contact
88%
EV
97
Barrel
12%
Air/Gnd
33/38
HR
5
24 BBE
Slider—25% used
Whiff
50%
Contact
50%
EV
93
Barrel
15%
Air/Gnd
31/31
HR
1
13 BBE
Sweeper—17% used
Whiff
30%
Contact
70%
EV
96
Barrel
25%
Air/Gnd
50/25
HR
3
8 BBE
Splitter—15% used
Whiff
22%
Contact
78%
EV
84
Barrel
0%
Air/Gnd
31/62
HR
0
13 BBE
Curve—4% used
Whiff
35%
Contact
65%
EV
89
Barrel
0%
Air/Gnd
25/38
HR
0
8 BBE
Pitch-by-pitch · Kempner throws / Harper hits
Stuff & usage = the arm’s; whiff / contact / EV / barrel / air-ground / HR = Harper’s 2026 vs RHP · green = bat’s edge
4-Seam—76% used
Whiff
12%
Contact
88%
EV
97
Barrel
12%
Air/Gnd
33/38
HR
5
24 BBE
Sweeper—18% used
Whiff
30%
Contact
70%
EV
96
Barrel
25%
Air/Gnd
50/25
HR
3
8 BBE
Change—5% used
Whiff
28%
Contact
72%
EV
90
Barrel
10%
Air/Gnd
20/65
HR
1
20 BBE
Pitch-by-pitch · King throws / Harper hits
Stuff & usage = the arm’s; whiff / contact / EV / barrel / air-ground / HR = Harper’s 2026 vs LHP · green = bat’s edge
Sinker—52% used
Whiff
7%
Contact
93%
EV
87
Barrel
0%
Air/Gnd
18/59
HR
0
17 BBE
Slider—30% used
Whiff
33%
Contact
67%
EV
92
Barrel
31%
Air/Gnd
54/38
HR
1
13 BBE
Sweeper—7% used
Whiff
48%
Contact
52%
EV
81
Barrel
0%
Air/Gnd
12/38
HR
0
8 BBE
Change—7% used
Whiff
36%
Contact
64%
EV
89
Barrel
25%
Air/Gnd
0/50
HR
0
4 BBE
Pitch-by-pitch · Bender throws / Harper hits
Stuff & usage = the arm’s; whiff / contact / EV / barrel / air-ground / HR = Harper’s 2026 vs RHP · green = bat’s edge
Slider—35% used
Whiff
50%
Contact
50%
EV
93
Barrel
15%
Air/Gnd
31/31
HR
1
13 BBE
Sweeper—31% used
Whiff
30%
Contact
70%
EV
96
Barrel
25%
Air/Gnd
50/25
HR
3
8 BBE
Sinker—24% used
Whiff
15%
Contact
85%
EV
90
Barrel
0%
Air/Gnd
13/73
HR
1
15 BBE
Change—8% used
Whiff
28%
Contact
72%
EV
90
Barrel
10%
Air/Gnd
20/65
HR
1
20 BBE
Pitch-by-pitch · Gibson throws / Harper hits
Stuff & usage = the arm’s; whiff / contact / EV / barrel / air-ground / HR = Harper’s 2026 vs LHP · green = bat’s edge
Sweeper—31% used
Whiff
48%
Contact
52%
EV
81
Barrel
0%
Air/Gnd
12/38
HR
0
8 BBE
Sinker—27% used
Whiff
7%
Contact
93%
EV
87
Barrel
0%
Air/Gnd
18/59
HR
0
17 BBE
Curve—21% used
Whiff
25%
Contact
75%
EV
78
Barrel
0%
Air/Gnd
0/67
HR
0
6 BBE
Slider—11% used
Whiff
33%
Contact
67%
EV
92
Barrel
31%
Air/Gnd
54/38
HR
1
13 BBE
4-Seam—7% used
Whiff
31%
Contact
69%
EV
91
Barrel
7%
Air/Gnd
43/29
HR
1
14 BBE
Pitch-by-pitch · Phillips throws / Harper hits
Stuff & usage = the arm’s; whiff / contact / EV / barrel / air-ground / HR = Harper’s 2026 vs RHP · green = bat’s edge
Curve—32% used
Whiff
35%
Contact
65%
EV
89
Barrel
0%
Air/Gnd
25/38
HR
0
8 BBE
Splitter—23% used
Whiff
22%
Contact
78%
EV
84
Barrel
0%
Air/Gnd
31/62
HR
0
13 BBE
Sinker—21% used
Whiff
15%
Contact
85%
EV
90
Barrel
0%
Air/Gnd
13/73
HR
1
15 BBE
4-Seam—13% used
Whiff
12%
Contact
88%
EV
97
Barrel
12%
Air/Gnd
33/38
HR
5
24 BBE
Sweeper—10% used
Whiff
30%
Contact
70%
EV
96
Barrel
25%
Air/Gnd
50/25
HR
3
8 BBE
Pitch-by-pitch · Faucher throws / Harper hits
Stuff & usage = the arm’s; whiff / contact / EV / barrel / air-ground / HR = Harper’s 2026 vs RHP · green = bat’s edge
Cutter—44% used
Whiff
26%
Contact
74%
EV
90
Barrel
0%
Air/Gnd
27/36
HR
1
11 BBE
Curve—26% used
Whiff
35%
Contact
65%
EV
89
Barrel
0%
Air/Gnd
25/38
HR
0
8 BBE
4-Seam—17% used
Whiff
12%
Contact
88%
EV
97
Barrel
12%
Air/Gnd
33/38
HR
5
24 BBE
Sweeper—7% used
Whiff
30%
Contact
70%
EV
96
Barrel
25%
Air/Gnd
50/25
HR
3
8 BBE
Sinker—6% used
Whiff
15%
Contact
85%
EV
90
Barrel
0%
Air/Gnd
13/73
HR
1
15 BBE
🎯 Target
Not enough arsenal data for this arm.
Matchup-Fit · barrel alignment vs Michael Petersen’s arsenal
4-Seam 59% usedbarrels 12% · allows 14% · 5 HR
Slider 27% usedbarrels 15% · allows 9% · 1 HR
Change 14% usedbarrels 10% · allows 11% · 1 HR
Air / Park
Pulls 16% in the air; pull side RF — park ×1.20 → park+wind fits his pull power.
Recent form · last 5
Barrel 0% · EV 95 · 1 HR over his last 5.
Matchup-Fit · barrel alignment vs Tyler Zuber’s arsenal
4-Seam 34% usedbarrels 12% · allows — · 5 HR
Sweeper 20% usedbarrels 25% · allows — · 3 HR
Slider 20% usedbarrels 15% · allows — · 1 HR
Change 18% usedbarrels 10% · allows — · 1 HR
Sinker 7% usedbarrels 0% · allows — · 1 HR
Air / Park
Pulls 16% in the air; pull side RF — park ×1.20 → park+wind fits his pull power.
Recent form · last 5
Barrel 0% · EV 95 · 1 HR over his last 5.
Matchup-Fit · barrel alignment vs Pete Fairbanks’s arsenal
4-Seam 49% usedbarrels 12% · allows 15% · 5 HR
Slider 34% usedbarrels 15% · allows — · 1 HR
Cutter 10% usedbarrels 0% · allows 33% · 1 HR
Change 7% usedbarrels 10% · allows — · 1 HR
Air / Park
Pulls 16% in the air; pull side RF — park ×1.20 → park+wind fits his pull power.
Recent form · last 5
Barrel 0% · EV 95 · 1 HR over his last 5.
Matchup-Fit · barrel alignment vs Lake Bachar’s arsenal
4-Seam 38% usedbarrels 12% · allows 18% · 5 HR
Slider 25% usedbarrels 15% · allows 0% · 1 HR
Sweeper 17% usedbarrels 25% · allows 0% · 3 HR
Splitter 15% usedbarrels 0% · allows 0%
Curve 4% usedbarrels 0% · allows —
Air / Park
Pulls 16% in the air; pull side RF — park ×1.20 → park+wind fits his pull power.
Recent form · last 5
Barrel 0% · EV 95 · 1 HR over his last 5.
Matchup-Fit · barrel alignment vs William Kempner’s arsenal
4-Seam 76% usedbarrels 12% · allows — · 5 HR
Sweeper 18% usedbarrels 25% · allows — · 3 HR
Change 5% usedbarrels 10% · allows — · 1 HR
Air / Park
Pulls 16% in the air; pull side RF — park ×1.20 → park+wind fits his pull power.
Recent form · last 5
Barrel 0% · EV 95 · 1 HR over his last 5.
Matchup-Fit · barrel alignment vs John King’s arsenal
Sinker 52% usedbarrels 0% · allows 0%
Slider 30% usedbarrels 31% · allows 17% · 1 HR
Sweeper 7% usedbarrels 0% · allows 0%
Change 7% usedbarrels 25% · allows —
Air / Park
Pulls 16% in the air; pull side RF — park ×1.20 → park+wind fits his pull power.
Recent form · last 5
Barrel 0% · EV 95 · 1 HR over his last 5.
Matchup-Fit · barrel alignment vs Anthony Bender’s arsenal
Slider 35% usedbarrels 15% · allows 0% · 1 HR
Sweeper 31% usedbarrels 25% · allows 0% · 3 HR
Sinker 24% usedbarrels 0% · allows 0% · 1 HR
Change 8% usedbarrels 10% · allows — · 1 HR
Air / Park
Pulls 16% in the air; pull side RF — park ×1.20 → park+wind fits his pull power.
Recent form · last 5
Barrel 0% · EV 95 · 1 HR over his last 5.
Matchup-Fit · barrel alignment vs Cade Gibson’s arsenal
Sweeper 31% usedbarrels 0% · allows 0%
Sinker 27% usedbarrels 0% · allows —
Curve 21% usedbarrels 0% · allows —
Slider 11% usedbarrels 31% · allows — · 1 HR
4-Seam 7% usedbarrels 7% · allows — · 1 HR
Air / Park
Pulls 16% in the air; pull side RF — park ×1.20 → park+wind fits his pull power.
Recent form · last 5
Barrel 0% · EV 95 · 1 HR over his last 5.
Matchup-Fit · barrel alignment vs Tyler Phillips’s arsenal
Curve 32% usedbarrels 0% · allows 0%
Splitter 23% usedbarrels 0% · allows 0%
Sinker 21% usedbarrels 0% · allows 0% · 1 HR
4-Seam 13% usedbarrels 12% · allows 0% · 5 HR
Sweeper 10% usedbarrels 25% · allows 14% · 3 HR
Air / Park
Pulls 16% in the air; pull side RF — park ×1.20 → park+wind fits his pull power.
Recent form · last 5
Barrel 0% · EV 95 · 1 HR over his last 5.
Matchup-Fit · barrel alignment vs Calvin Faucher’s arsenal
Cutter 44% usedbarrels 0% · allows 5% · 1 HR
Curve 26% usedbarrels 0% · allows 0%
4-Seam 17% usedbarrels 12% · allows — · 5 HR
Sweeper 7% usedbarrels 25% · allows — · 3 HR
Sinker 6% usedbarrels 0% · allows — · 1 HR
Air / Park
Pulls 16% in the air; pull side RF — park ×1.20 → park+wind fits his pull power.
Recent form · last 5
Barrel 0% · EV 95 · 1 HR over his last 5.
Matchup Lab
Loading…
Batter Stats
Last 5 games · H/AB · K · GB · FB · barrel · EV · HR/FB · HR
| H/AB | K | GB | FB | BRL | EV | HR/FB | HR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5G | 3/16 | 5 | 58% | 25% | 0% | 95 | 33% | 1 |
| 06/14 | 0/4 | 1 | 33% | 67% | 0% | 94 | 0% | 0 |
| 06/13 | 0/3 | 2 | 50% | 0% | 0% | 85 | — | 0 |
| 06/12 | 0/3 | 1 | 100% | 0% | 0% | 97 | — | 0 |
| 06/10 | 2/4 | 0 | 50% | 25% | 0% | 97 | 100% | 1 |
| 06/09 | 1/2 | 1 | 100% | 0% | 0% | 110 | — | 0 |
Swing & Bat Tracking (568 swings)
bat tracking
Bat speed74.2 mph
Swing length7.4 ft
Attack angle13.3°
contact
swing timing
Early29%
On-time58%
Late13%
miss profile
Over17%
Under22%
Tied-up7%
Centered55%
Flailed39%
Batter power & contact · longer + greener = more HR-likely
vs LHP · 3 HR in 122 PA
vs RHP · 13 HR in 192 PA
Matchup strength · longer + greener = more HR-favorable
matchup strength
supporting
Home / Away HR splits · season-to-date
Home HOME7 HR / 146 PA · 4.8%
Home · .492 SLG
Away AWAY8 HR / 148 PA · 5.4%
Away · .500 SLG
Park fit · spray vs this yard
Pulls 16% of contact in the air; his pull side is RF here — HR factor ×1.20 → park fits his pull power.
Pitcher
Ryan Gusto RHP
No stat profile (low sample).
Pitcher summary · vs LHB
PHI ranks 4th in HR factor for LH hitters.
Michael Petersen • RHP (MIA)MIA @ PHI | vs PHI1/1 W–L • 3.07 ERA • 34 Ks • 1.06 WHIP0.6 HR/9 • 16% Barrel • 26% FB • 26% K • 3.07 ERA (H 2.87 / A 3.29)◐ Homer-prone on the year, quieter last 31.03hittability
Michael Petersen • RHP (MIA)
MIA @ PHI | vs PHI
1/1 W–L • 3.07 ERA • 34 Ks • 1.06 WHIP
0.6 HR/9 • 16% Barrel • 26% FB • 26% K • 3.07 ERA (H 2.87 / A 3.29)
◐ Homer-prone on the year, quieter last 3
1.03
hittability
Last 3 games · IP / pitches / HR
◐ Homer-prone on the year, quieter last 3 Homer-prone over the full season — the quiet recent stretch is a small sample the model discounts.
06/13 2.0 IP · 29 P0 HR
06/11 1.0 IP · 14 P0 HR
06/09 1.0 IP · 26 P0 HR
Not enough data for this view.
HR hittability vs a league-average hitter · longer + greener = easier to take deep
vs LHB · 0.8 HR/9 · 1 HR in 78 PA
vs RHB · 0.7 HR/9 · 0 HR in 56 PA
Pitch mix · stuff · HR rating · swing-and-miss · contact
Splits · home/away & batter hand
| HR/9 | HR | Barrel | FB% | K% | ERA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 0.00 | 0 | — | — | 35% | 2.87 |
| Away | 0.66 | 1 | — | — | 21% | 3.29 |
| vs LHB | 0.85 | 1 | 18% | 26% | 25% | — |
| vs RHB | 0.71 | 0 | 12% | 24% | 25% | — |
HR = home runs allowed (season-to-date). ERA isn’t reported by batter hand, and barrel/FB% aren’t available by home/away — those cells show —.
Pitcher summary · vs LHB
Michael Petersen carries a 0.57 HR/9. PHI ranks 4th in HR factor for LH hitters.
Tyler Zuber • RHP (MIA)MIA @ PHI | vs PHI0/0 W–L • 10.13 ERA • 3 Ks • 1.50 WHIP0.8 HR/9 • 12% Barrel • 27% FB • 24% K • 10.13 ERA (H 16.20 / A 0.00)▬ Holding steady1.01hittability
Tyler Zuber • RHP (MIA)
MIA @ PHI | vs PHI
0/0 W–L • 10.13 ERA • 3 Ks • 1.50 WHIP
0.8 HR/9 • 12% Barrel • 27% FB • 24% K • 10.13 ERA (H 16.20 / A 0.00)
▬ Holding steady
1.01
hittability
Last 3 games · IP / pitches / HR
▬ Holding steady No big change in his home-run risk lately.
06/14 1.0 IP · 16 P0 HR
06/09 0.1 IP · 15 P0 HR
06/06 0.1 IP · 5 P0 HR
Not enough data for this view.
HR hittability vs a league-average hitter · longer + greener = easier to take deep
vs LHB · 1.1 HR/9 · 0 HR in 11 PA
vs RHB · 1.0 HR/9 · 0 HR in 14 PA
Pitch mix · stuff · HR rating · swing-and-miss · contact
Splits · home/away & batter hand
| HR/9 | HR | Barrel | FB% | K% | ERA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 0.00 | 0 | — | — | 30% | 16.20 |
| Away | 0.00 | 0 | — | — | 0% | 0.00 |
| vs LHB | 1.05 | 0 | 13% | 24% | 20% | — |
| vs RHB | 1.02 | 0 | 13% | 25% | 26% | — |
HR = home runs allowed (season-to-date). ERA isn’t reported by batter hand, and barrel/FB% aren’t available by home/away — those cells show —.
Pitcher summary · vs LHB
Tyler Zuber carries a 0.85 HR/9. PHI ranks 4th in HR factor for LH hitters.
Pete Fairbanks • RHP (MIA)MIA @ PHI | vs PHI3/3 W–L • 6.75 ERA • 29 Ks • 1.45 WHIP1.4 HR/9 • 15% Barrel • 29% FB • 28% K • 6.75 ERA (H 2.92 / A 12.91)▬ Holding steady0.95hittability
Pete Fairbanks • RHP (MIA)
MIA @ PHI | vs PHI
3/3 W–L • 6.75 ERA • 29 Ks • 1.45 WHIP
1.4 HR/9 • 15% Barrel • 29% FB • 28% K • 6.75 ERA (H 2.92 / A 12.91)
▬ Holding steady
0.95
hittability
Last 3 games · IP / pitches / HR
▬ Holding steady No big change in his home-run risk lately.
06/14 1.0 IP · 14 P1 HR
06/11 1.0 IP · 13 P0 HR
06/09 1.0 IP · 24 P0 HR
Pitches to target · go-deep pitches
The pitches he's given up the most homers on — and the bats most likely to punish them.
vs lefty bats4-seam
Most likely to capitalize: Schwarber 29%, Harper 27%, Marsh 22%
vs righty batsno clear target
Most likely to capitalize: Sosa 12%, Turner 11%, Realmuto 11%
HR hittability vs a league-average hitter · longer + greener = easier to take deep
vs LHB · 1.8 HR/9 · 4 HR in 59 PA
vs RHB · 0.8 HR/9 · 0 HR in 41 PA
Pitch mix · stuff · HR rating · swing-and-miss · contact
Splits · home/away & batter hand
| HR/9 | HR | Barrel | FB% | K% | ERA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 0.73 | 1 | — | — | 41% | 2.92 |
| Away | 3.52 | 3 | — | — | 22% | 12.91 |
| vs LHB | 1.78 | 4 | 16% | 28% | 24% | — |
| vs RHB | 0.79 | 0 | 12% | 24% | 28% | — |
HR = home runs allowed (season-to-date). ERA isn’t reported by batter hand, and barrel/FB% aren’t available by home/away — those cells show —.
Pitcher summary · vs LHB
Pete Fairbanks carries a 1.40 HR/9 and gave up 1 in his last outing. Lefties have taken him deep 4 of 4 times (3.5 HR/9 to LHB). He owns a 12.91 ERA on the road. PHI ranks 4th in HR factor for LH hitters.
Lake Bachar • RHP (MIA)MIA @ PHI | vs PHI0/0 W–L • 3.05 ERA • 45 Ks • 0.91 WHIP1.0 HR/9 • 10% Barrel • 27% FB • 29% K • 3.05 ERA (H 1.40 / A 4.74)▬ Holding steady0.88hittability
Lake Bachar • RHP (MIA)
MIA @ PHI | vs PHI
0/0 W–L • 3.05 ERA • 45 Ks • 0.91 WHIP
1.0 HR/9 • 10% Barrel • 27% FB • 29% K • 3.05 ERA (H 1.40 / A 4.74)
▬ Holding steady
0.88
hittability
Last 3 outings · IP / pitches / HR
▬ Holding steady No big change in his home-run risk lately.
06/13 2.0 IP · 42 P0 HR
06/10 2.0 IP · 36 P relief0 HR
06/06 3.0 IP · 38 P0 HR
Pitches to target · go-deep pitches
The pitches he's given up the most homers on — and the bats most likely to punish them.
vs lefty batsno clear target
Most likely to capitalize: Schwarber 29%, Harper 27%, Marsh 22%
vs righty bats4-seam · slider
Most likely to capitalize: Sosa 12%, Turner 11%, Realmuto 11%
HR hittability vs a league-average hitter · longer + greener = easier to take deep
vs LHB · 0.8 HR/9 · 1 HR in 84 PA
vs RHB · 1.4 HR/9 · 3 HR in 72 PA
Pitch mix · stuff · HR rating · swing-and-miss · contact
Splits · home/away & batter hand
| HR/9 | HR | Barrel | FB% | K% | ERA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 0.47 | 1 | — | — | 28% | 1.40 |
| Away | 1.89 | 4 | — | — | 31% | 4.74 |
| vs LHB | 0.82 | 1 | 12% | 24% | 26% | — |
| vs RHB | 1.38 | 3 | 12% | 28% | 29% | — |
HR = home runs allowed (season-to-date). ERA isn’t reported by batter hand, and barrel/FB% aren’t available by home/away — those cells show —.
Pitcher summary · vs LHB
Lake Bachar carries a 1.04 HR/9. Lefties have taken him deep 1 of 4 times (0.9 HR/9 to LHB). PHI ranks 4th in HR factor for LH hitters.
William Kempner • RHP (MIA)MIA @ PHI | vs PHI1/0 W–L • 0.00 ERA • 8 Ks • 0.75 WHIP0.8 HR/9 • 14% Barrel • 22% FB • 26% K • 0.00 ERA (H 0.00 / A 0.00)▬ Holding steady0.88hittability
William Kempner • RHP (MIA)
MIA @ PHI | vs PHI
1/0 W–L • 0.00 ERA • 8 Ks • 0.75 WHIP
0.8 HR/9 • 14% Barrel • 22% FB • 26% K • 0.00 ERA (H 0.00 / A 0.00)
▬ Holding steady
0.88
hittability
Last 3 games · IP / pitches / HR
▬ Holding steady No big change in his home-run risk lately.
06/10 2.0 IP · 36 P0 HR
06/05 1.1 IP · 13 P0 HR
05/31 1.1 IP · 28 P0 HR
Not enough data for this view.
HR hittability vs a league-average hitter · longer + greener = easier to take deep
vs LHB · 1.0 HR/9 · 0 HR in 17 PA
vs RHB · 1.0 HR/9 · 0 HR in 14 PA
Pitch mix · stuff · HR rating · swing-and-miss · contact
Splits · home/away & batter hand
| HR/9 | HR | Barrel | FB% | K% | ERA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 0.00 | 0 | — | — | 31% | 0.00 |
| Away | 0.00 | 0 | — | — | 33% | 0.00 |
| vs LHB | 0.99 | 0 | 13% | 26% | 29% | — |
| vs RHB | 1.02 | 0 | 15% | 20% | 20% | — |
HR = home runs allowed (season-to-date). ERA isn’t reported by batter hand, and barrel/FB% aren’t available by home/away — those cells show —.
Pitcher summary · vs LHB
William Kempner carries a 0.79 HR/9. PHI ranks 4th in HR factor for LH hitters.
John King • LHP (MIA)MIA @ PHI | vs PHI3/1 W–L • 2.48 ERA • 22 Ks • 0.72 WHIP1.0 HR/9 • 11% Barrel • 22% FB • 22% K • 2.48 ERA (H 0.00 / A 4.15)▬ Holding steady0.88hittability
John King • LHP (MIA)
MIA @ PHI | vs PHI
3/1 W–L • 2.48 ERA • 22 Ks • 0.72 WHIP
1.0 HR/9 • 11% Barrel • 22% FB • 22% K • 2.48 ERA (H 0.00 / A 4.15)
▬ Holding steady
0.88
hittability
Last 3 games · IP / pitches / HR
▬ Holding steady No big change in his home-run risk lately.
06/13 0.2 IP · 11 P0 HR
06/12 1.0 IP · 18 P0 HR
06/06 0.2 IP · 4 P0 HR
Pitches to target · go-deep pitches
The pitches he's given up the most homers on — and the bats most likely to punish them.
vs lefty batsslider
Most likely to capitalize: Schwarber 29%, Harper 27%, Marsh 22%
vs righty batsno clear target
Most likely to capitalize: Sosa 12%, Turner 11%, Realmuto 11%
HR hittability vs a league-average hitter · longer + greener = easier to take deep
vs LHB · 1.2 HR/9 · 2 HR in 63 PA
vs RHB · 0.9 HR/9 · 1 HR in 64 PA
Pitch mix · stuff · HR rating · swing-and-miss · contact
Splits · home/away & batter hand
| HR/9 | HR | Barrel | FB% | K% | ERA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 0.00 | 0 | — | — | 25% | 0.00 |
| Away | 1.56 | 3 | — | — | 17% | 4.15 |
| vs LHB | 1.20 | 2 | 14% | 22% | 22% | — |
| vs RHB | 0.93 | 1 | 11% | 22% | 22% | — |
HR = home runs allowed (season-to-date). ERA isn’t reported by batter hand, and barrel/FB% aren’t available by home/away — those cells show —.
Pitcher summary · vs LHB
John King carries a 0.99 HR/9. PHI ranks 4th in HR factor for LH hitters.
Anthony Bender • RHP (MIA)MIA @ PHI | vs PHI1/1 W–L • 3.07 ERA • 36 Ks • 0.95 WHIP0.6 HR/9 • 10% Barrel • 24% FB • 28% K • 3.07 ERA (H 1.65 / A 4.85)▼ Tougher to homer off lately0.86hittability
Anthony Bender • RHP (MIA)
MIA @ PHI | vs PHI
1/1 W–L • 3.07 ERA • 36 Ks • 0.95 WHIP
0.6 HR/9 • 10% Barrel • 24% FB • 28% K • 3.07 ERA (H 1.65 / A 4.85)
▼ Tougher to homer off lately
0.86
hittability
Last 3 games · IP / pitches / HR
▼ Tougher to homer off lately This pitcher is trending the right way — fewer homers.
06/13 1.0 IP · 27 P0 HR
06/11 1.0 IP · 19 P0 HR
06/09 0.2 IP · 11 P0 HR
Pitches to target · go-deep pitches
The pitches he's given up the most homers on — and the bats most likely to punish them.
vs lefty batsno clear target
Most likely to capitalize: Schwarber 29%, Harper 27%, Marsh 22%
vs righty batssinker
Most likely to capitalize: Sosa 12%, Turner 11%, Realmuto 11%
HR hittability vs a league-average hitter · longer + greener = easier to take deep
vs LHB · 0.7 HR/9 · 0 HR in 59 PA
vs RHB · 0.9 HR/9 · 1 HR in 70 PA
Pitch mix · stuff · HR rating · swing-and-miss · contact
Splits · home/away & batter hand
| HR/9 | HR | Barrel | FB% | K% | ERA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 0.00 | 0 | — | — | 37% | 1.65 |
| Away | 0.69 | 1 | — | — | 22% | 4.85 |
| vs LHB | 0.69 | 0 | 12% | 22% | 27% | — |
| vs RHB | 0.89 | 1 | 11% | 25% | 26% | — |
HR = home runs allowed (season-to-date). ERA isn’t reported by batter hand, and barrel/FB% aren’t available by home/away — those cells show —.
Pitcher summary · vs LHB
Anthony Bender carries a 0.58 HR/9. PHI ranks 4th in HR factor for LH hitters.
Cade Gibson • LHP (MIA)MIA @ PHI | vs PHI0/0 W–L • 5.73 ERA • 11 Ks • 1.82 WHIP0.8 HR/9 • 13% Barrel • 20% FB • 20% K • 5.73 ERA (H 11.57 / A 1.42)◐ Homer-prone on the year, quieter last 30.85hittability
Cade Gibson • LHP (MIA)
MIA @ PHI | vs PHI
0/0 W–L • 5.73 ERA • 11 Ks • 1.82 WHIP
0.8 HR/9 • 13% Barrel • 20% FB • 20% K • 5.73 ERA (H 11.57 / A 1.42)
◐ Homer-prone on the year, quieter last 3
0.85
hittability
Last 3 games · IP / pitches / HR
◐ Homer-prone on the year, quieter last 3 Homer-prone over the full season — the quiet recent stretch is a small sample the model discounts.
06/13 1.1 IP · 22 P0 HR
06/10 1.0 IP · 15 P0 HR
05/31 1.1 IP · 16 P0 HR
Not enough data for this view.
HR hittability vs a league-average hitter · longer + greener = easier to take deep
vs LHB · 1.2 HR/9 · 1 HR in 30 PA
vs RHB · 0.8 HR/9 · 0 HR in 40 PA
Pitch mix · stuff · HR rating · swing-and-miss · contact
Splits · home/away & batter hand
| HR/9 | HR | Barrel | FB% | K% | ERA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.93 | 1 | — | — | 19% | 11.57 |
| Away | 0.00 | 0 | — | — | 21% | 1.42 |
| vs LHB | 1.22 | 1 | 14% | 23% | 26% | — |
| vs RHB | 0.80 | 0 | 13% | 21% | 16% | — |
HR = home runs allowed (season-to-date). ERA isn’t reported by batter hand, and barrel/FB% aren’t available by home/away — those cells show —.
Pitcher summary · vs LHB
Cade Gibson carries a 0.85 HR/9. PHI ranks 4th in HR factor for LH hitters.
Tyler Phillips • RHP (MIA)MIA @ PHI | vs PHI1/1 W–L • 1.86 ERA • 41 Ks • 1.30 WHIP0.5 HR/9 • 13% Barrel • 23% FB • 21% K • 1.86 ERA (H 0.83 / A 4.02)▬ Holding steady0.81hittability
Tyler Phillips • RHP (MIA)
MIA @ PHI | vs PHI
1/1 W–L • 1.86 ERA • 41 Ks • 1.30 WHIP
0.5 HR/9 • 13% Barrel • 23% FB • 21% K • 1.86 ERA (H 0.83 / A 4.02)
▬ Holding steady
0.81
hittability
Last 3 starts · IP / pitches / HR
▬ Holding steady No big change in his home-run risk lately.
06/11 5.0 IP · 70 P0 HR
06/05 4.2 IP · 82 P bulk1 HR
05/30 5.0 IP · 72 P0 HR
Not enough data for this view.
HR hittability vs a league-average hitter · longer + greener = easier to take deep
vs LHB · 0.7 HR/9 · 1 HR in 120 PA
vs RHB · 0.7 HR/9 · 1 HR in 106 PA
Pitch mix · stuff · HR rating · swing-and-miss · contact
Splits · home/away & batter hand
| HR/9 | HR | Barrel | FB% | K% | ERA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 0.28 | 1 | — | — | 24% | 0.83 |
| Away | 0.57 | 1 | — | — | 13% | 4.02 |
| vs LHB | 0.67 | 1 | 14% | 23% | 24% | — |
| vs RHB | 0.72 | 1 | 13% | 23% | 19% | — |
HR = home runs allowed (season-to-date). ERA isn’t reported by batter hand, and barrel/FB% aren’t available by home/away — those cells show —.
Pitcher summary · vs LHB
Tyler Phillips carries a 0.52 HR/9 and gave up 0 in his last outing (1 over his last 3). PHI ranks 4th in HR factor for LH hitters.
Calvin Faucher • RHP (MIA)MIA @ PHI | vs PHI4/3 W–L (Tied–59th) • 3.34 ERA • 34 Ks • 1.62 WHIP0.3 HR/9 • 11% Barrel • 19% FB • 25% K • 3.34 ERA (H 3.94 / A 2.63)▬ Holding steady0.74hittability
Calvin Faucher • RHP (MIA)
MIA @ PHI | vs PHI
4/3 W–L (Tied–59th) • 3.34 ERA • 34 Ks • 1.62 WHIP
0.3 HR/9 • 11% Barrel • 19% FB • 25% K • 3.34 ERA (H 3.94 / A 2.63)
▬ Holding steady
0.74
hittability
Last 3 games · IP / pitches / HR
▬ Holding steady No big change in his home-run risk lately.
06/14 1.0 IP · 16 P0 HR
06/13 1.0 IP · 15 P0 HR
06/11 1.0 IP · 13 P0 HR
Not enough data for this view.
HR hittability vs a league-average hitter · longer + greener = easier to take deep
vs LHB · 0.6 HR/9 · 0 HR in 91 PA
vs RHB · 0.7 HR/9 · 0 HR in 57 PA
Pitch mix · stuff · HR rating · swing-and-miss · contact
Splits · home/away & batter hand
| HR/9 | HR | Barrel | FB% | K% | ERA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 0.00 | 0 | — | — | 26% | 3.94 |
| Away | 0.00 | 0 | — | — | 24% | 2.63 |
| vs LHB | 0.56 | 0 | 12% | 20% | 25% | — |
| vs RHB | 0.70 | 0 | 12% | 21% | 23% | — |
HR = home runs allowed (season-to-date). ERA isn’t reported by batter hand, and barrel/FB% aren’t available by home/away — those cells show —.
Pitcher summary · vs LHB
Calvin Faucher carries a 0.35 HR/9. PHI ranks 4th in HR factor for LH hitters.
Pick who he’ll face
Matchup vs Ryan GustoB
Matchup vs Michael PetersenA · ×1.48
Arms like Michael Petersen
Most similar arsenals (velocity, movement, mix): Gus Varland, Jordan Leasure, Ryne Stanek, Emmet Sheehan, Hunter Bigge, Nick Mears.
vs arms like this (since 2025), 2 HR in 18 PA (11.1% · league ~3%).
Matchup vs Tyler ZuberA · ×1.46
Matchup vs Pete FairbanksA · ×1.39
Arms like Pete Fairbanks
Most similar arsenals (velocity, movement, mix): Jordan Leasure, Nick Mears, Chase Burns, Bryan Abreu, Kevin Ginkel, Grant Taylor.
vs arms like this (since 2025), 2 HR in 17 PA (11.8% · league ~3%).
Matchup vs Lake BacharA · ×1.36
Arms like Lake Bachar
Most similar arsenals (velocity, movement, mix): Jeff Hoffman, Max Meyer, Joe Boyle, Jacob deGrom, Dylan Cease, Shohei Ohtani.
vs arms like this (since 2025), 2 HR in 33 PA (6.1% · league ~3%).
Matchup vs William KempnerA · ×1.38
Matchup vs John KingA · ×1.19
Arms like John King
Most similar arsenals (velocity, movement, mix): Brant Hurter, Framber Valdez, JoJo Romero, Cristopher Sánchez, Brennan Bernardino, Aaron Ashby.
vs arms like this (since 2025), 0 HR in 36 PA (0.0% · league ~3%).
Matchup vs Anthony BenderA · ×1.24
Arms like Anthony Bender
Most similar arsenals (velocity, movement, mix): Justin Lawrence, Blake Treinen, Jake Bird, Jimmy Herget, Riley O'Brien, Kai-Wei Teng.
Matchup vs Cade GibsonA · ×1.17
Arms like Cade Gibson
Most similar arsenals (velocity, movement, mix): Framber Valdez, Max Fried, Tyler Holton, Kyle Hart, DL Hall, John King.
vs arms like this (since 2025), 1 HR in 29 PA (3.4% · league ~3%).
Matchup vs Tyler PhillipsB · ×1.07
Arms like Tyler Phillips
Most similar arsenals (velocity, movement, mix): Luis García, Brayan Bello, Carmen Mlodzinski, Jordan Hicks, Brandon Sproat, Colin Holderman.
vs arms like this (since 2025), 2 HR in 20 PA (10.0% · league ~3%).
Matchup vs Calvin FaucherA · ×1.10
Arms like Calvin Faucher
Most similar arsenals (velocity, movement, mix): Drew Rasmussen, Nolan McLean, Cody Bolton, Griffin Jax, Dustin May, Zack Kelly.
vs arms like this (since 2025), 3 HR in 25 PA (12.0% · league ~3%).
Jo Adell RLAA AWAY vs Ryne Nelson R · ARIwind 1.00park 1.00brl 18%recent 18%27%MatchupA+267
Jo Adell R
LAA AWAY vs Ryne Nelson R · ARI
wind 1.00park 1.00brl 18%recent 18%
27%
MatchupA
+267
Jo Adell R
LAA AWAY vs Ryne Nelson R · ARI
wind 1.00park 1.00brl 18%recent 18%
27%
Matchup summary · vs Ryne Nelson
Batter Summary 📈 Trending up
Adell has 4 of his 10 HRs off RHP, 42% hard-hit that side. 8 of his 10 HRs have come on the road, slugging .475 there.
Form Last ~3 weeks (recency-weighted): .469 xwOBAcon (lg .372), 18% well-hit (lg 14%), 47% hard-hit · 3 HR in 57 PA. Recent contact quality is beating league — the rating catches the heat before the HR totals show it.
Ranking Reasoning
Strong HR spot.
A homer-prone starter, he's vulnerable to righties (1.8 HR/9) and the park favors RH power.
A homer-prone starter, he's vulnerable to righties (1.8 HR/9) and the park favors RH power.
⚾ vs Nelson (career): 0/2 AB | 0 HR | 0K
Pitch by Pitch
Pitch-by-pitch · Nelson throws / Adell hits
Stuff & usage = the arm’s; whiff / contact / EV / barrel / air-ground / HR = Adell’s 2026 vs RHP · green = bat’s edge
4-SeamSt 7760% used
Whiff
25%
Contact
75%
EV
93
Barrel
3%
Air/Gnd
42/35
HR
1
31 BBE
SliderSt 5824% used
Whiff
40%
Contact
60%
EV
89
Barrel
0%
Air/Gnd
12/32
HR
1
25 BBE
CutterSt 948% used
Whiff
16%
Contact
84%
EV
91
Barrel
7%
Air/Gnd
21/43
HR
0
14 BBE
CurveSt 316% used
Whiff
20%
Contact
80%
EV
90
Barrel
0%
Air/Gnd
10/10
HR
0
10 BBE
Pitch-by-pitch · Sewald throws / Adell hits
Stuff & usage = the arm’s; whiff / contact / EV / barrel / air-ground / HR = Adell’s 2026 vs RHP · green = bat’s edge
4-Seam—57% used
Whiff
25%
Contact
75%
EV
93
Barrel
3%
Air/Gnd
42/35
HR
1
31 BBE
Sweeper—43% used
Whiff
22%
Contact
78%
EV
91
Barrel
7%
Air/Gnd
36/29
HR
1
14 BBE
Pitch-by-pitch · Jameson throws / Adell hits
Stuff & usage = the arm’s; whiff / contact / EV / barrel / air-ground / HR = Adell’s 2026 vs RHP · green = bat’s edge
Slider—52% used
Whiff
40%
Contact
60%
EV
89
Barrel
0%
Air/Gnd
12/32
HR
1
25 BBE
Sinker—20% used
Whiff
20%
Contact
80%
EV
86
Barrel
3%
Air/Gnd
13/54
HR
1
39 BBE
Change—15% used
Whiff
27%
Contact
73%
EV
99
Barrel
0%
Air/Gnd
0/33
HR
0
6 BBE
4-Seam—13% used
Whiff
25%
Contact
75%
EV
93
Barrel
3%
Air/Gnd
42/35
HR
1
31 BBE
Pitch-by-pitch · Clarke throws / Adell hits
Stuff & usage = the arm’s; whiff / contact / EV / barrel / air-ground / HR = Adell’s 2026 vs RHP · green = bat’s edge
Slider—52% used
Whiff
40%
Contact
60%
EV
89
Barrel
0%
Air/Gnd
12/32
HR
1
25 BBE
Sinker—30% used
Whiff
20%
Contact
80%
EV
86
Barrel
3%
Air/Gnd
13/54
HR
1
39 BBE
4-Seam—9% used
Whiff
25%
Contact
75%
EV
93
Barrel
3%
Air/Gnd
42/35
HR
1
31 BBE
Change—7% used
Whiff
27%
Contact
73%
EV
99
Barrel
0%
Air/Gnd
0/33
HR
0
6 BBE
Pitch-by-pitch · Thompson throws / Adell hits
Stuff & usage = the arm’s; whiff / contact / EV / barrel / air-ground / HR = Adell’s 2026 vs RHP · green = bat’s edge
Sinker—54% used
Whiff
20%
Contact
80%
EV
86
Barrel
3%
Air/Gnd
13/54
HR
1
39 BBE
Slider—42% used
Whiff
40%
Contact
60%
EV
89
Barrel
0%
Air/Gnd
12/32
HR
1
25 BBE
4-Seam—4% used
Whiff
25%
Contact
75%
EV
93
Barrel
3%
Air/Gnd
42/35
HR
1
31 BBE
Pitch-by-pitch · Loáisiga throws / Adell hits
Stuff & usage = the arm’s; whiff / contact / EV / barrel / air-ground / HR = Adell’s 2026 vs RHP · green = bat’s edge
Sinker—61% used
Whiff
20%
Contact
80%
EV
86
Barrel
3%
Air/Gnd
13/54
HR
1
39 BBE
Curve—26% used
Whiff
20%
Contact
80%
EV
90
Barrel
0%
Air/Gnd
10/10
HR
0
10 BBE
Change—6% used
Whiff
27%
Contact
73%
EV
99
Barrel
0%
Air/Gnd
0/33
HR
0
6 BBE
4-Seam—5% used
Whiff
25%
Contact
75%
EV
93
Barrel
3%
Air/Gnd
42/35
HR
1
31 BBE
Pitch-by-pitch · Ginkel throws / Adell hits
Stuff & usage = the arm’s; whiff / contact / EV / barrel / air-ground / HR = Adell’s 2026 vs RHP · green = bat’s edge
Slider—50% used
Whiff
40%
Contact
60%
EV
89
Barrel
0%
Air/Gnd
12/32
HR
1
25 BBE
4-Seam—39% used
Whiff
25%
Contact
75%
EV
93
Barrel
3%
Air/Gnd
42/35
HR
1
31 BBE
Sinker—10% used
Whiff
20%
Contact
80%
EV
86
Barrel
3%
Air/Gnd
13/54
HR
1
39 BBE
Pitch-by-pitch · Garcia throws / Adell hits
Stuff & usage = the arm’s; whiff / contact / EV / barrel / air-ground / HR = Adell’s 2026 vs LHP · green = bat’s edge
Sinker—56% used
Whiff
10%
Contact
90%
EV
93
Barrel
0%
Air/Gnd
0/71
HR
0
7 BBE
Slider—22% used
Whiff
37%
Contact
63%
EV
93
Barrel
0%
Air/Gnd
17/17
HR
0
6 BBE
Sweeper—20% used
Whiff
43%
Contact
57%
EV
85
Barrel
0%
Air/Gnd
0/0
HR
0
4 BBE
Pitch-by-pitch · Morillo throws / Adell hits
Stuff & usage = the arm’s; whiff / contact / EV / barrel / air-ground / HR = Adell’s 2026 vs RHP · green = bat’s edge
4-Seam—34% used
Whiff
25%
Contact
75%
EV
93
Barrel
3%
Air/Gnd
42/35
HR
1
31 BBE
Sinker—31% used
Whiff
20%
Contact
80%
EV
86
Barrel
3%
Air/Gnd
13/54
HR
1
39 BBE
Slider—30% used
Whiff
40%
Contact
60%
EV
89
Barrel
0%
Air/Gnd
12/32
HR
1
25 BBE
Change—4% used
Whiff
27%
Contact
73%
EV
99
Barrel
0%
Air/Gnd
0/33
HR
0
6 BBE
🎯 Target
Matchup-Fit · barrel alignment vs Ryne Nelson’s arsenal
4-Seam 60% usedbarrels 3% · allows 9% · 1 HR
Slider 24% usedbarrels 0% · allows 6% · 1 HR
Cutter 8% usedbarrels 7% · allows —
Curve 6% usedbarrels 0% · allows —
Air / Park
Pulls 17% in the air; pull side LF — park ×1.12 → park+wind fits his pull power.
Recent form · last 5
Barrel 0% · EV 89 · 0 HR over his last 5.
Matchup-Fit · barrel alignment vs Paul Sewald’s arsenal
4-Seam 57% usedbarrels 3% · allows 12% · 1 HR
Sweeper 43% usedbarrels 7% · allows 0% · 1 HR
Air / Park
Pulls 17% in the air; pull side LF — park ×1.12 → park+wind fits his pull power.
Recent form · last 5
Barrel 0% · EV 89 · 0 HR over his last 5.
Matchup-Fit · barrel alignment vs Drey Jameson’s arsenal
Slider 52% usedbarrels 0% · allows — · 1 HR
Sinker 20% usedbarrels 3% · allows — · 1 HR
Change 15% usedbarrels 0% · allows —
4-Seam 13% usedbarrels 3% · allows — · 1 HR
Air / Park
Pulls 17% in the air; pull side LF — park ×1.12 → park+wind fits his pull power.
Recent form · last 5
Barrel 0% · EV 89 · 0 HR over his last 5.
Matchup-Fit · barrel alignment vs Taylor Clarke’s arsenal
Slider 52% usedbarrels 0% · allows 12% · 1 HR
Sinker 30% usedbarrels 3% · allows 8% · 1 HR
4-Seam 9% usedbarrels 3% · allows — · 1 HR
Change 7% usedbarrels 0% · allows —
Air / Park
Pulls 17% in the air; pull side LF — park ×1.12 → park+wind fits his pull power.
Recent form · last 5
Barrel 0% · EV 89 · 0 HR over his last 5.
Matchup-Fit · barrel alignment vs Ryan Thompson’s arsenal
Sinker 54% usedbarrels 3% · allows 4% · 1 HR
Slider 42% usedbarrels 0% · allows 4% · 1 HR
Air / Park
Pulls 17% in the air; pull side LF — park ×1.12 → park+wind fits his pull power.
Recent form · last 5
Barrel 0% · EV 89 · 0 HR over his last 5.
Matchup-Fit · barrel alignment vs Jonathan Loáisiga’s arsenal
Sinker 61% usedbarrels 3% · allows 0% · 1 HR
Curve 26% usedbarrels 0% · allows 8%
Change 6% usedbarrels 0% · allows —
4-Seam 5% usedbarrels 3% · allows — · 1 HR
Air / Park
Pulls 17% in the air; pull side LF — park ×1.12 → park+wind fits his pull power.
Recent form · last 5
Barrel 0% · EV 89 · 0 HR over his last 5.
Matchup-Fit · barrel alignment vs Kevin Ginkel’s arsenal
Slider 50% usedbarrels 0% · allows 6% · 1 HR
4-Seam 39% usedbarrels 3% · allows 0% · 1 HR
Sinker 10% usedbarrels 3% · allows — · 1 HR
Air / Park
Pulls 17% in the air; pull side LF — park ×1.12 → park+wind fits his pull power.
Recent form · last 5
Barrel 0% · EV 89 · 0 HR over his last 5.
Matchup-Fit · barrel alignment vs Brandyn Garcia’s arsenal
Sinker 56% usedbarrels 0% · allows 0%
Slider 22% usedbarrels 0% · allows —
Sweeper 20% usedbarrels 0% · allows —
Air / Park
Pulls 17% in the air; pull side LF — park ×1.12 → park+wind fits his pull power.
Recent form · last 5
Barrel 0% · EV 89 · 0 HR over his last 5.
Matchup-Fit · barrel alignment vs Juan Morillo’s arsenal
4-Seam 34% usedbarrels 3% · allows 10% · 1 HR
Sinker 31% usedbarrels 3% · allows 0% · 1 HR
Slider 30% usedbarrels 0% · allows 14% · 1 HR
Air / Park
Pulls 17% in the air; pull side LF — park ×1.12 → park+wind fits his pull power.
Recent form · last 5
Barrel 0% · EV 89 · 0 HR over his last 5.
Matchup Lab
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Batter Stats
Last 5 games · H/AB · K · GB · FB · barrel · EV · HR/FB · HR
| H/AB | K | GB | FB | BRL | EV | HR/FB | HR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5G | 9/21 | 3 | 53% | 18% | 0% | 89 | 0% | 0 |
| 06/14 | 2/3 | 0 | 67% | 0% | 0% | 82 | — | 0 |
| 06/13 | 4/5 | 0 | 40% | 20% | 0% | 93 | 0% | 0 |
| 06/12 | 1/5 | 1 | 33% | 33% | 0% | 98 | 0% | 0 |
| 06/10 | 0/4 | 1 | 67% | 0% | 0% | 76 | — | 0 |
| 06/09 | 2/4 | 1 | 67% | 33% | 0% | 95 | 0% | 0 |
Swing & Bat Tracking (636 swings)
bat tracking
Bat speed77.4 mph
Swing length7.8 ft
Attack angle10.6°
contact
swing timing
Early24%
On-time63%
Late13%
miss profile
Over13%
Under31%
Tied-up15%
Centered59%
Flailed25%
Batter power & contact · longer + greener = more HR-likely
vs LHP · 9 HR in 108 PA
vs RHP · 5 HR in 248 PA
Matchup strength · longer + greener = more HR-favorable
matchup strength
supporting
Home / Away HR splits · season-to-date
Home HOME2 HR / 151 PA · 1.3%
Home · .317 SLG
Away AWAY8 HR / 150 PA · 5.3%
Away · .475 SLG
Park fit · spray vs this yard
Pulls 17% of contact in the air; his pull side is LF here — HR factor ×1.12 → park fits his pull power.
Pitcher
Ryne Nelson • RHP (ARI)LAA @ ARI | vs LAA2/5 W–L • 5.19 ERA (66th) • 57 Ks (Tied–84th) • 1.23 WHIP (41st)1.8 HR/9 • 15% Barrel • 31% FB • 20% K • 5.19 ERA (H 5.35 / A 5.02)▲ Easier to take deep lately1.19hittability
Ryne Nelson • RHP (ARI)
LAA @ ARI | vs LAA
2/5 W–L • 5.19 ERA (66th) • 57 Ks (Tied–84th) • 1.23 WHIP (41st)
1.8 HR/9 • 15% Barrel • 31% FB • 20% K • 5.19 ERA (H 5.35 / A 5.02)
▲ Easier to take deep lately
1.19
hittability
Last 3 starts · IP / pitches / HR
▲ Easier to take deep lately This pitcher is trending toward giving up home runs.
06/10 4.0 IP · 82 P2 HR
06/04 7.0 IP · 94 P0 HR
05/30 5.1 IP · 99 P4 HR
Pitches to target · go-deep pitches
The pitches he's given up the most homers on — and the bats most likely to punish them.
vs lefty batsslider · cutter
Most likely to capitalize: Meckler 12%, Walton 8%, Schanuel 7%
vs righty batsslider
Most likely to capitalize: Adell 27%, Neto 27%, Trout 27%
HR hittability vs a league-average hitter · longer + greener = easier to take deep
vs LHB · 1.9 HR/9 · 11 HR in 196 PA
vs RHB · 1.5 HR/9 · 8 HR in 179 PA
Pitch mix · stuff · HR rating · swing-and-miss · contact
spin 12:22
spin 10:02
spin 7:17
spin 11:58
spin 12:22
spin 10:02
spin 7:17
spin 11:58
spin 12:22
spin 10:02
spin 7:17
spin 11:58
Where he’s hittable · xSLG allowed by zone (vs RHB)
Green = he gives up slug there. Tap a band → out/mid/in cells → each pitch’s xSLG + a cyan contact-allowed bar. Cell splits use 2025–26; display only.
Splits · home/away & batter hand
| HR/9 | HR | Barrel | FB% | K% | ERA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.63 | 7 | — | — | 14% | 5.35 |
| Away | 2.39 | 10 | — | — | 21% | 5.02 |
| vs LHB | 1.86 | 11 | 17% | 30% | 18% | — |
| vs RHB | 1.54 | 8 | 13% | 29% | 23% | — |
HR = home runs allowed (season-to-date). ERA isn’t reported by batter hand, and barrel/FB% aren’t available by home/away — those cells show —.
Pitcher summary · vs RHB
Ryne Nelson carries a 1.83 HR/9 and gave up 2 in his last outing (6 over his last 3). Righties have taken him deep 6 of 17 times (1.8 HR/9 to RHB). He owns a 5.35 ERA at home. ARI ranks 8th in HR factor for RH hitters.
Paul Sewald • RHP (ARI)LAA @ ARI | vs LAA1.3 HR/9 • 11% Barrel • 38% FB • 25% K • 3.08 ERA (H 3.38 / A 2.77)◐ Homer-prone on the year, quieter last 31.29hittability
Paul Sewald • RHP (ARI)
LAA @ ARI | vs LAA
1.3 HR/9 • 11% Barrel • 38% FB • 25% K • 3.08 ERA (H 3.38 / A 2.77)
◐ Homer-prone on the year, quieter last 3
1.29
hittability
Last 3 games · IP / pitches / HR
◐ Homer-prone on the year, quieter last 3 Homer-prone over the full season — the quiet recent stretch is a small sample the model discounts.
06/14 1.0 IP · 17 P0 HR
06/12 1.0 IP · 13 P0 HR
06/11 1.0 IP · 16 P0 HR
Pitches to target · go-deep pitches
The pitches he's given up the most homers on — and the bats most likely to punish them.
vs lefty bats4-seam
Most likely to capitalize: Meckler 12%, Walton 8%, Schanuel 7%
vs righty batsno clear target
Most likely to capitalize: Adell 27%, Neto 27%, Trout 27%
HR hittability vs a league-average hitter · longer + greener = easier to take deep
vs LHB · 1.5 HR/9 · 3 HR in 61 PA
vs RHB · 1.0 HR/9 · 1 HR in 54 PA
Pitch mix · stuff · HR rating · swing-and-miss · contact
Splits · home/away & batter hand
| HR/9 | HR | Barrel | FB% | K% | ERA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.02 | 3 | — | — | 33% | 3.38 |
| Away | 0.69 | 1 | — | — | 26% | 2.77 |
| vs LHB | 1.49 | 3 | 12% | 34% | 24% | — |
| vs RHB | 1.00 | 1 | 13% | 29% | 24% | — |
HR = home runs allowed (season-to-date). ERA isn’t reported by batter hand, and barrel/FB% aren’t available by home/away — those cells show —.
Pitcher summary · vs RHB
Paul Sewald carries a 1.28 HR/9. Righties have taken him deep 1 of 4 times (0.8 HR/9 to RHB). ARI ranks 8th in HR factor for RH hitters.
Drey Jameson • RHP (ARI)LAA @ ARI | vs LAA0.8 HR/9 • 13% Barrel • 22% FB • 19% K • 4.91 ERA (H 18.00 / A 0.00)▬ Holding steady0.95hittability
Drey Jameson • RHP (ARI)
LAA @ ARI | vs LAA
0.8 HR/9 • 13% Barrel • 22% FB • 19% K • 4.91 ERA (H 18.00 / A 0.00)
▬ Holding steady
0.95
hittability
Last 3 games · IP / pitches / HR
▬ Holding steady No big change in his home-run risk lately.
06/10 2.2 IP · 28 P0 HR
06/06 1.0 IP · 26 P0 HR
03/12 1.1 IP · 29 P0 HR
Not enough data for this view.
HR hittability vs a league-average hitter · longer + greener = easier to take deep
vs LHB · 1.0 HR/9 · 0 HR in 16 PA
vs RHB · 1.0 HR/9 · 0 HR in 16 PA
Pitch mix · stuff · HR rating · swing-and-miss · contact
Splits · home/away & batter hand
| HR/9 | HR | Barrel | FB% | K% | ERA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 0.00 | 0 | — | — | 14% | 18.00 |
| Away | 0.00 | 0 | — | — | 10% | 0.00 |
| vs LHB | 1.00 | 0 | 13% | 22% | 20% | — |
| vs RHB | 1.00 | 0 | 14% | 24% | 20% | — |
HR = home runs allowed (season-to-date). ERA isn’t reported by batter hand, and barrel/FB% aren’t available by home/away — those cells show —.
Pitcher summary · vs RHB
Drey Jameson carries a 0.78 HR/9. He owns a 18.00 ERA at home. ARI ranks 8th in HR factor for RH hitters.
Taylor Clarke • RHP (ARI)LAA @ ARI | vs LAA0.8 HR/9 • 12% Barrel • 21% FB • 18% K • 2.12 ERA (H 0.61 / A 3.60)◐ Homer-prone on the year, quieter last 30.87hittability
Taylor Clarke • RHP (ARI)
LAA @ ARI | vs LAA
0.8 HR/9 • 12% Barrel • 21% FB • 18% K • 2.12 ERA (H 0.61 / A 3.60)
◐ Homer-prone on the year, quieter last 3
0.87
hittability
Last 3 games · IP / pitches / HR
◐ Homer-prone on the year, quieter last 3 Homer-prone over the full season — the quiet recent stretch is a small sample the model discounts.
06/12 2.0 IP · 36 P0 HR
06/09 0.2 IP · 22 P0 HR
06/07 1.0 IP · 8 P0 HR
Pitches to target · go-deep pitches
The pitches he's given up the most homers on — and the bats most likely to punish them.
vs lefty batsno clear target
Most likely to capitalize: Meckler 12%, Walton 8%, Schanuel 7%
vs righty batssinker
Most likely to capitalize: Adell 27%, Neto 27%, Trout 27%
HR hittability vs a league-average hitter · longer + greener = easier to take deep
vs LHB · 0.6 HR/9 · 0 HR in 68 PA
vs RHB · 1.2 HR/9 · 2 HR in 65 PA
Pitch mix · stuff · HR rating · swing-and-miss · contact
Splits · home/away & batter hand
| HR/9 | HR | Barrel | FB% | K% | ERA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 0.00 | 0 | — | — | 20% | 0.61 |
| Away | 0.60 | 1 | — | — | 8% | 3.60 |
| vs LHB | 0.65 | 0 | 13% | 19% | 20% | — |
| vs RHB | 1.19 | 2 | 12% | 24% | 18% | — |
HR = home runs allowed (season-to-date). ERA isn’t reported by batter hand, and barrel/FB% aren’t available by home/away — those cells show —.
Pitcher summary · vs RHB
Taylor Clarke carries a 0.77 HR/9. ARI ranks 8th in HR factor for RH hitters.
Ryan Thompson • RHP (ARI)LAA @ ARI | vs LAA1.0 HR/9 • 8% Barrel • 19% FB • 17% K • 2.28 ERA (H 5.79 / A 0.00)▼ Tougher to homer off lately0.84hittability
Ryan Thompson • RHP (ARI)
LAA @ ARI | vs LAA
1.0 HR/9 • 8% Barrel • 19% FB • 17% K • 2.28 ERA (H 5.79 / A 0.00)
▼ Tougher to homer off lately
0.84
hittability
Last 3 games · IP / pitches / HR
▼ Tougher to homer off lately This pitcher is trending the right way — fewer homers.
06/12 1.1 IP · 18 P0 HR
06/09 1.0 IP · 9 P0 HR
06/03 1.2 IP · 36 P0 HR
Pitches to target · go-deep pitches
The pitches he's given up the most homers on — and the bats most likely to punish them.
vs lefty bats4-seam · sinker
Most likely to capitalize: Meckler 12%, Walton 8%, Schanuel 7%
vs righty batsslider
Most likely to capitalize: Adell 27%, Neto 27%, Trout 27%
HR hittability vs a league-average hitter · longer + greener = easier to take deep
vs LHB · 1.4 HR/9 · 2 HR in 45 PA
vs RHB · 0.9 HR/9 · 1 HR in 74 PA
Pitch mix · stuff · HR rating · swing-and-miss · contact
Splits · home/away & batter hand
| HR/9 | HR | Barrel | FB% | K% | ERA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.93 | 2 | — | — | 17% | 5.79 |
| Away | 0.00 | 0 | — | — | 14% | 0.00 |
| vs LHB | 1.38 | 2 | 11% | 20% | 16% | — |
| vs RHB | 0.87 | 1 | 9% | 22% | 19% | — |
HR = home runs allowed (season-to-date). ERA isn’t reported by batter hand, and barrel/FB% aren’t available by home/away — those cells show —.
Pitcher summary · vs RHB
Ryan Thompson carries a 1.04 HR/9. He owns a 5.79 ERA at home. ARI ranks 8th in HR factor for RH hitters.
Jonathan Loáisiga • RHP (ARI)LAA @ ARI | vs LAA0.8 HR/9 • 12% Barrel • 19% FB • 19% K • 3.12 ERA (H 2.63 / A 3.65)◐ Homer-prone on the year, quieter last 30.81hittability
Jonathan Loáisiga • RHP (ARI)
LAA @ ARI | vs LAA
0.8 HR/9 • 12% Barrel • 19% FB • 19% K • 3.12 ERA (H 2.63 / A 3.65)
◐ Homer-prone on the year, quieter last 3
0.81
hittability
Last 3 games · IP / pitches / HR
◐ Homer-prone on the year, quieter last 3 Homer-prone over the full season — the quiet recent stretch is a small sample the model discounts.
06/12 1.0 IP · 11 P0 HR
06/10 1.0 IP · 6 P0 HR
06/06 1.0 IP · 17 P0 HR
Pitches to target · go-deep pitches
The pitches he's given up the most homers on — and the bats most likely to punish them.
vs lefty bats4-seam
Most likely to capitalize: Meckler 12%, Walton 8%, Schanuel 7%
vs righty batscurve
Most likely to capitalize: Adell 27%, Neto 27%, Trout 27%
HR hittability vs a league-average hitter · longer + greener = easier to take deep
vs LHB · 0.9 HR/9 · 1 HR in 64 PA
vs RHB · 1.0 HR/9 · 1 HR in 54 PA
Pitch mix · stuff · HR rating · swing-and-miss · contact
Splits · home/away & batter hand
| HR/9 | HR | Barrel | FB% | K% | ERA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 0.00 | 0 | — | — | 14% | 2.63 |
| Away | 0.73 | 1 | — | — | 18% | 3.65 |
| vs LHB | 0.93 | 1 | 14% | 22% | 21% | — |
| vs RHB | 1.00 | 1 | 11% | 20% | 18% | — |
HR = home runs allowed (season-to-date). ERA isn’t reported by batter hand, and barrel/FB% aren’t available by home/away — those cells show —.
Pitcher summary · vs RHB
Jonathan Loáisiga carries a 0.83 HR/9. ARI ranks 8th in HR factor for RH hitters.
Kevin Ginkel • RHP (ARI)LAA @ ARI | vs LAA0.9 HR/9 • 13% Barrel • 22% FB • 26% K • 2.60 ERA (H 3.55 / A 1.80)◐ Homer-prone on the year, quieter last 30.72hittability
Kevin Ginkel • RHP (ARI)
LAA @ ARI | vs LAA
0.9 HR/9 • 13% Barrel • 22% FB • 26% K • 2.60 ERA (H 3.55 / A 1.80)
◐ Homer-prone on the year, quieter last 3
0.72
hittability
Last 3 games · IP / pitches / HR
◐ Homer-prone on the year, quieter last 3 Homer-prone over the full season — the quiet recent stretch is a small sample the model discounts.
06/14 1.0 IP · 28 P0 HR
06/12 1.0 IP · 24 P0 HR
06/09 0.1 IP · 8 P0 HR
Pitches to target · go-deep pitches
The pitches he's given up the most homers on — and the bats most likely to punish them.
vs lefty batsno clear target
Most likely to capitalize: Meckler 12%, Walton 8%, Schanuel 7%
vs righty bats4-seam
Most likely to capitalize: Adell 27%, Neto 27%, Trout 27%
HR hittability vs a league-average hitter · longer + greener = easier to take deep
vs LHB · 0.9 HR/9 · 1 HR in 75 PA
vs RHB · 1.2 HR/9 · 2 HR in 61 PA
Pitch mix · stuff · HR rating · swing-and-miss · contact
Splits · home/away & batter hand
| HR/9 | HR | Barrel | FB% | K% | ERA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 0.71 | 1 | — | — | 24% | 3.55 |
| Away | 0.60 | 1 | — | — | 33% | 1.80 |
| vs LHB | 0.86 | 1 | 12% | 24% | 27% | — |
| vs RHB | 1.22 | 2 | 15% | 21% | 22% | — |
HR = home runs allowed (season-to-date). ERA isn’t reported by batter hand, and barrel/FB% aren’t available by home/away — those cells show —.
Pitcher summary · vs RHB
Kevin Ginkel carries a 0.95 HR/9. ARI ranks 8th in HR factor for RH hitters.
Brandyn Garcia • LHP (ARI)LAA @ ARI | vs LAA0.5 HR/9 • 9% Barrel • 23% FB • 23% K • 3.07 ERA (H 0.00 / A 5.87)▬ Holding steady0.65hittability
Brandyn Garcia • LHP (ARI)
LAA @ ARI | vs LAA
0.5 HR/9 • 9% Barrel • 23% FB • 23% K • 3.07 ERA (H 0.00 / A 5.87)
▬ Holding steady
0.65
hittability
Last 3 games · IP / pitches / HR
▬ Holding steady No big change in his home-run risk lately.
06/11 1.0 IP · 15 P0 HR
06/09 0.2 IP · 21 P0 HR
06/04 1.0 IP · 7 P0 HR
Not enough data for this view.
HR hittability vs a league-average hitter · longer + greener = easier to take deep
vs LHB · 0.8 HR/9 · 0 HR in 34 PA
vs RHB · 0.8 HR/9 · 0 HR in 39 PA
Pitch mix · stuff · HR rating · swing-and-miss · contact
Splits · home/away & batter hand
| HR/9 | HR | Barrel | FB% | K% | ERA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 0.00 | 0 | — | — | 17% | 0.00 |
| Away | 0.00 | 0 | — | — | 27% | 5.87 |
| vs LHB | 0.84 | 0 | 11% | 21% | 21% | — |
| vs RHB | 0.81 | 0 | 12% | 25% | 23% | — |
HR = home runs allowed (season-to-date). ERA isn’t reported by batter hand, and barrel/FB% aren’t available by home/away — those cells show —.
Pitcher summary · vs RHB
Brandyn Garcia carries a 0.54 HR/9. ARI ranks 8th in HR factor for RH hitters.
Juan Morillo • RHP (ARI)LAA @ ARI | vs LAA0.9 HR/9 • 9% Barrel • 17% FB • 28% K • 2.57 ERA (H 1.32 / A 3.77)▲ Easier to take deep lately0.59hittability
Juan Morillo • RHP (ARI)
LAA @ ARI | vs LAA
0.9 HR/9 • 9% Barrel • 17% FB • 28% K • 2.57 ERA (H 1.32 / A 3.77)
▲ Easier to take deep lately
0.59
hittability
Last 3 games · IP / pitches / HR
▲ Easier to take deep lately This pitcher is trending toward giving up home runs.
06/14 1.0 IP · 14 P0 HR
06/13 1.0 IP · 15 P1 HR
06/10 0.1 IP · 5 P0 HR
Pitches to target · go-deep pitches
The pitches he's given up the most homers on — and the bats most likely to punish them.
vs lefty batschange
Most likely to capitalize: Meckler 12%, Walton 8%, Schanuel 7%
vs righty batsslider · 4-seam
Most likely to capitalize: Adell 27%, Neto 27%, Trout 27%
HR hittability vs a league-average hitter · longer + greener = easier to take deep
vs LHB · 0.8 HR/9 · 1 HR in 79 PA
vs RHB · 1.2 HR/9 · 2 HR in 59 PA
Pitch mix · stuff · HR rating · swing-and-miss · contact
Splits · home/away & batter hand
| HR/9 | HR | Barrel | FB% | K% | ERA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 0.00 | 0 | — | — | 33% | 1.32 |
| Away | 1.26 | 2 | — | — | 31% | 3.77 |
| vs LHB | 0.84 | 1 | 10% | 17% | 27% | — |
| vs RHB | 1.24 | 2 | 13% | 23% | 25% | — |
HR = home runs allowed (season-to-date). ERA isn’t reported by batter hand, and barrel/FB% aren’t available by home/away — those cells show —.
Pitcher summary · vs RHB
Juan Morillo carries a 0.94 HR/9 and gave up 0 in his last outing (1 over his last 3). ARI ranks 8th in HR factor for RH hitters.
Pick who he’ll face
Matchup vs Ryne NelsonA
Arms like Ryne Nelson
Most similar arsenals (velocity, movement, mix): Jordan Leasure, Antonio Senzatela, Nick Mears, Bryan Baker, Grant Taylor, Spencer Strider.
vs arms like this (since 2025), 1 HR in 18 PA (5.6% · league ~3%).
Matchup vs Paul SewaldA · ×1.22
Arms like Paul Sewald
Most similar arsenals (velocity, movement, mix): Grant Anderson, Connor Phillips, Juan Mejia, Casey Legumina, Matt Festa, Justin Sterner.
vs arms like this (since 2025), 0 HR in 22 PA (0.0% · league ~3%).
Matchup vs Drey JamesonB · ×1.09
Matchup vs Taylor ClarkeB · ×1.06
Arms like Taylor Clarke
Most similar arsenals (velocity, movement, mix): Alex Lange, Jaden Hill, Osvaldo Bido, Dennis Santana, Bryce Elder, Jesse Scholtens.
vs arms like this (since 2025), 1 HR in 30 PA (3.3% · league ~3%).
Matchup vs Ryan ThompsonA · ×1.10
Arms like Ryan Thompson
Most similar arsenals (velocity, movement, mix): Kevin Kelly, Tyler Rogers, Ryan Walker, Jakob Junis, Trevor McDonald, J.T. Ginn.
vs arms like this (since 2025), 3 HR in 33 PA (9.1% · league ~3%).
Matchup vs Jonathan LoáisigaA · ×1.10
Arms like Jonathan Loáisiga
Most similar arsenals (velocity, movement, mix): Huascar Brazobán, Walbert Ureña, Adrian Houser, Edward Cabrera, Colin Holderman, Jack Kochanowicz.
vs arms like this (since 2025), 1 HR in 25 PA (4.0% · league ~3%).
Matchup vs Kevin GinkelA · ×1.20
Arms like Kevin Ginkel
Most similar arsenals (velocity, movement, mix): Nick Mears, Gus Varland, Andrés Muñoz, Spencer Strider, Jordan Leasure, Dennis Santana.
vs arms like this (since 2025), 0 HR in 17 PA (0.0% · league ~3%).
Matchup vs Brandyn GarciaB · ×1.06
Arms like Brandyn Garcia
Most similar arsenals (velocity, movement, mix): Brant Hurter, JoJo Romero, José A. Ferrer, Gregory Soto, Cristopher Sánchez, Richard Lovelady.
Matchup vs Juan MorilloA · ×1.19
Arms like Juan Morillo
Most similar arsenals (velocity, movement, mix): Will Vest, Brad Keller, Victor Vodnik, Bubba Chandler, Jonathan Bowlan, Jack Leiter.
vs arms like this (since 2025), 2 HR in 17 PA (11.8% · league ~3%).
Corbin Carroll LARI HOME vs Walbert Ureña R · ARIwind 1.00park 1.00brl 18%recent 27% HOT27%MatchupC+268
Corbin Carroll L
ARI HOME vs Walbert Ureña R · ARI
wind 1.00park 1.00brl 18%recent 27% HOT
27%
MatchupC
+268
Corbin Carroll L
ARI HOME vs Walbert Ureña R · ARI
wind 1.00park 1.00brl 18%recent 27% HOT
27%
Matchup summary · vs Walbert Ureña
Batter Summary 📈 Trending up
Carroll has 10 of his 12 HRs off RHP, 47% hard-hit that side. 7 of his 12 HRs have come at home, slugging .633 there. Carroll has been hot against arms like this lately.
Form Last ~3 weeks (recency-weighted): .504 xwOBAcon (lg .372), 27% well-hit (lg 14%), 61% hard-hit · 2 HR in 60 PA. Recent contact quality is beating league — the rating catches the heat before the HR totals show it.
Ranking Reasoning
Strong HR spot.
Big power vs RHP (17% barrels), hot against this kind of arsenal and holds power in two-strike counts.
Big power vs RHP (17% barrels), hot against this kind of arsenal and holds power in two-strike counts.
🏟️ Homered here 19× at this park (since ’25)
Pitch by Pitch
Pitch-by-pitch · Ureña throws / Carroll hits
Stuff & usage = the arm’s; whiff / contact / EV / barrel / air-ground / HR = Carroll’s 2026 vs RHP · green = bat’s edge
ChangeSt 9344% used
Whiff
21%
Contact
79%
EV
91
Barrel
12%
Air/Gnd
29/41
HR
2
17 BBE
SinkerSt 7225% used
Whiff
18%
Contact
82%
EV
95
Barrel
0%
Air/Gnd
16/47
HR
0
19 BBE
4-SeamSt 4523% used
Whiff
32%
Contact
68%
EV
95
Barrel
11%
Air/Gnd
41/37
HR
3
27 BBE
SweeperSt 188% used
Whiff
20%
Contact
80%
EV
87
Barrel
14%
Air/Gnd
43/29
HR
0
7 BBE
Pitch-by-pitch · Aldegheri throws / Carroll hits
Stuff & usage = the arm’s; whiff / contact / EV / barrel / air-ground / HR = Carroll’s 2026 vs LHP · green = bat’s edge
4-Seam—51% used
Whiff
24%
Contact
76%
EV
94
Barrel
0%
Air/Gnd
17/50
HR
1
12 BBE
Slider—24% used
Whiff
25%
Contact
75%
EV
88
Barrel
0%
Air/Gnd
11/37
HR
1
19 BBE
Change—9% used
Whiff
36%
Contact
64%
EV
89
Barrel
0%
Air/Gnd
25/75
HR
0
4 BBE
Curve—8% used
Whiff
—
Contact
—
EV
—
Barrel
—
Air/Gnd
—
HR
—
thin 2026
Cutter—7% used
Whiff
50%
Contact
50%
EV
—
Barrel
—
Air/Gnd
—
HR
—
thin 2026
Pitch-by-pitch · Farris throws / Carroll hits
Stuff & usage = the arm’s; whiff / contact / EV / barrel / air-ground / HR = Carroll’s 2026 vs LHP · green = bat’s edge
4-Seam—50% used
Whiff
24%
Contact
76%
EV
94
Barrel
0%
Air/Gnd
17/50
HR
1
12 BBE
Slider—21% used
Whiff
25%
Contact
75%
EV
88
Barrel
0%
Air/Gnd
11/37
HR
1
19 BBE
Change—20% used
Whiff
36%
Contact
64%
EV
89
Barrel
0%
Air/Gnd
25/75
HR
0
4 BBE
Cutter—9% used
Whiff
50%
Contact
50%
EV
—
Barrel
—
Air/Gnd
—
HR
—
thin 2026
Pitch-by-pitch · Yates throws / Carroll hits
Stuff & usage = the arm’s; whiff / contact / EV / barrel / air-ground / HR = Carroll’s 2026 vs RHP · green = bat’s edge
4-Seam—58% used
Whiff
32%
Contact
68%
EV
95
Barrel
11%
Air/Gnd
41/37
HR
3
27 BBE
Splitter—41% used
Whiff
36%
Contact
64%
EV
87
Barrel
0%
Air/Gnd
38/50
HR
0
8 BBE
Pitch-by-pitch · Fermin throws / Carroll hits
Stuff & usage = the arm’s; whiff / contact / EV / barrel / air-ground / HR = Carroll’s 2026 vs RHP · green = bat’s edge
Slider—45% used
Whiff
31%
Contact
69%
EV
95
Barrel
0%
Air/Gnd
20/40
HR
1
10 BBE
4-Seam—39% used
Whiff
32%
Contact
68%
EV
95
Barrel
11%
Air/Gnd
41/37
HR
3
27 BBE
Sinker—11% used
Whiff
18%
Contact
82%
EV
95
Barrel
0%
Air/Gnd
16/47
HR
0
19 BBE
Change—6% used
Whiff
21%
Contact
79%
EV
91
Barrel
12%
Air/Gnd
29/41
HR
2
17 BBE
Pitch-by-pitch · Jr. throws / Carroll hits
Stuff & usage = the arm’s; whiff / contact / EV / barrel / air-ground / HR = Carroll’s 2026 vs LHP · green = bat’s edge
4-Seam—62% used
Whiff
24%
Contact
76%
EV
94
Barrel
0%
Air/Gnd
17/50
HR
1
12 BBE
Slider—38% used
Whiff
25%
Contact
75%
EV
88
Barrel
0%
Air/Gnd
11/37
HR
1
19 BBE
Pitch-by-pitch · Suter throws / Carroll hits
Stuff & usage = the arm’s; whiff / contact / EV / barrel / air-ground / HR = Carroll’s 2026 vs LHP · green = bat’s edge
Sinker—33% used
Whiff
21%
Contact
79%
EV
87
Barrel
8%
Air/Gnd
23/46
HR
0
13 BBE
Slider—29% used
Whiff
25%
Contact
75%
EV
88
Barrel
0%
Air/Gnd
11/37
HR
1
19 BBE
4-Seam—28% used
Whiff
24%
Contact
76%
EV
94
Barrel
0%
Air/Gnd
17/50
HR
1
12 BBE
Change—9% used
Whiff
36%
Contact
64%
EV
89
Barrel
0%
Air/Gnd
25/75
HR
0
4 BBE
Pitch-by-pitch · Zeferjahn throws / Carroll hits
Stuff & usage = the arm’s; whiff / contact / EV / barrel / air-ground / HR = Carroll’s 2026 vs RHP · green = bat’s edge
4-Seam—34% used
Whiff
32%
Contact
68%
EV
95
Barrel
11%
Air/Gnd
41/37
HR
3
27 BBE
Sweeper—31% used
Whiff
20%
Contact
80%
EV
87
Barrel
14%
Air/Gnd
43/29
HR
0
7 BBE
Cutter—14% used
Whiff
18%
Contact
82%
EV
97
Barrel
9%
Air/Gnd
18/27
HR
1
11 BBE
Slider—13% used
Whiff
31%
Contact
69%
EV
95
Barrel
0%
Air/Gnd
20/40
HR
1
10 BBE
Sinker—6% used
Whiff
18%
Contact
82%
EV
95
Barrel
0%
Air/Gnd
16/47
HR
0
19 BBE
Pitch-by-pitch · Silseth throws / Carroll hits
Stuff & usage = the arm’s; whiff / contact / EV / barrel / air-ground / HR = Carroll’s 2026 vs RHP · green = bat’s edge
4-Seam—44% used
Whiff
32%
Contact
68%
EV
95
Barrel
11%
Air/Gnd
41/37
HR
3
27 BBE
Splitter—42% used
Whiff
36%
Contact
64%
EV
87
Barrel
0%
Air/Gnd
38/50
HR
0
8 BBE
Sinker—8% used
Whiff
18%
Contact
82%
EV
95
Barrel
0%
Air/Gnd
16/47
HR
0
19 BBE
Sweeper—6% used
Whiff
20%
Contact
80%
EV
87
Barrel
14%
Air/Gnd
43/29
HR
0
7 BBE
Pitch-by-pitch · Bachman throws / Carroll hits
Stuff & usage = the arm’s; whiff / contact / EV / barrel / air-ground / HR = Carroll’s 2026 vs RHP · green = bat’s edge
Slider—42% used
Whiff
31%
Contact
69%
EV
95
Barrel
0%
Air/Gnd
20/40
HR
1
10 BBE
Sinker—32% used
Whiff
18%
Contact
82%
EV
95
Barrel
0%
Air/Gnd
16/47
HR
0
19 BBE
Change—25% used
Whiff
21%
Contact
79%
EV
91
Barrel
12%
Air/Gnd
29/41
HR
2
17 BBE
🎯 Target
Matchup-Fit · barrel alignment vs Walbert Ureña’s arsenal
Change 44% usedbarrels 12% · allows 0% · 2 HR
Sinker 25% usedbarrels 0% · allows 5%
4-Seam 23% usedbarrels 11% · allows 0% · 3 HR
Sweeper 8% usedbarrels 14% · allows —
Air / Park
Pulls 22% in the air; pull side RF — park ×0.83 → park+wind fights his pull power.
Recent form · last 5
Barrel 0% · EV 91 · 1 HR over his last 5.
Matchup-Fit · barrel alignment vs Sam Aldegheri’s arsenal
4-Seam 51% usedbarrels 0% · allows 17% · 1 HR
Slider 24% usedbarrels 0% · allows — · 1 HR
Change 9% usedbarrels 0% · allows —
Curve 8% usedbarrels — · allows —
Cutter 7% usedbarrels — · allows —
Air / Park
Pulls 22% in the air; pull side RF — park ×0.83 → park+wind fights his pull power.
Recent form · last 5
Barrel 0% · EV 91 · 1 HR over his last 5.
Matchup-Fit · barrel alignment vs Mitch Farris’s arsenal
4-Seam 50% usedbarrels 0% · allows 0% · 1 HR
Slider 21% usedbarrels 0% · allows 0% · 1 HR
Change 20% usedbarrels 0% · allows —
Cutter 9% usedbarrels — · allows 0%
Air / Park
Pulls 22% in the air; pull side RF — park ×0.83 → park+wind fights his pull power.
Recent form · last 5
Barrel 0% · EV 91 · 1 HR over his last 5.
Matchup-Fit · barrel alignment vs Kirby Yates’s arsenal
4-Seam 58% usedbarrels 11% · allows 0% · 3 HR
Splitter 41% usedbarrels 0% · allows —
Air / Park
Pulls 22% in the air; pull side RF — park ×0.83 → park+wind fights his pull power.
Recent form · last 5
Barrel 0% · EV 91 · 1 HR over his last 5.
Matchup-Fit · barrel alignment vs José Fermin’s arsenal
Slider 45% usedbarrels 0% · allows 0% · 1 HR
4-Seam 39% usedbarrels 11% · allows — · 3 HR
Sinker 11% usedbarrels 0% · allows 0%
Change 6% usedbarrels 12% · allows — · 2 HR
Air / Park
Pulls 22% in the air; pull side RF — park ×0.83 → park+wind fights his pull power.
Recent form · last 5
Barrel 0% · EV 91 · 1 HR over his last 5.
Matchup-Fit · barrel alignment vs Samy Natera Jr.’s arsenal
4-Seam 62% usedbarrels 0% · allows — · 1 HR
Slider 38% usedbarrels 0% · allows — · 1 HR
Air / Park
Pulls 22% in the air; pull side RF — park ×0.83 → park+wind fights his pull power.
Recent form · last 5
Barrel 0% · EV 91 · 1 HR over his last 5.
Matchup-Fit · barrel alignment vs Brent Suter’s arsenal
Sinker 33% usedbarrels 8% · allows 11%
Slider 29% usedbarrels 0% · allows 8% · 1 HR
4-Seam 28% usedbarrels 0% · allows 0% · 1 HR
Change 9% usedbarrels 0% · allows —
Air / Park
Pulls 22% in the air; pull side RF — park ×0.83 → park+wind fights his pull power.
Recent form · last 5
Barrel 0% · EV 91 · 1 HR over his last 5.
Matchup-Fit · barrel alignment vs Ryan Zeferjahn’s arsenal
4-Seam 34% usedbarrels 11% · allows 14% · 3 HR
Sweeper 31% usedbarrels 14% · allows 8%
Cutter 14% usedbarrels 9% · allows — · 1 HR
Slider 13% usedbarrels 0% · allows 0% · 1 HR
Sinker 6% usedbarrels 0% · allows —
Air / Park
Pulls 22% in the air; pull side RF — park ×0.83 → park+wind fights his pull power.
Recent form · last 5
Barrel 0% · EV 91 · 1 HR over his last 5.
Matchup-Fit · barrel alignment vs Chase Silseth’s arsenal
4-Seam 44% usedbarrels 11% · allows 0% · 3 HR
Splitter 42% usedbarrels 0% · allows 6%
Sinker 8% usedbarrels 0% · allows —
Sweeper 6% usedbarrels 14% · allows —
Air / Park
Pulls 22% in the air; pull side RF — park ×0.83 → park+wind fights his pull power.
Recent form · last 5
Barrel 0% · EV 91 · 1 HR over his last 5.
Matchup-Fit · barrel alignment vs Sam Bachman’s arsenal
Slider 42% usedbarrels 0% · allows 8% · 1 HR
Sinker 32% usedbarrels 0% · allows 0%
Change 25% usedbarrels 12% · allows 0% · 2 HR
Air / Park
Pulls 22% in the air; pull side RF — park ×0.83 → park+wind fights his pull power.
Recent form · last 5
Barrel 0% · EV 91 · 1 HR over his last 5.
Matchup Lab
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Batter Stats
Last 5 games · H/AB · K · GB · FB · barrel · EV · HR/FB · HR
| H/AB | K | GB | FB | BRL | EV | HR/FB | HR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5G | 4/19 | 4 | 18% | 36% | 0% | 91 | 25% | 1 |
| 06/14 | 0/4 | 1 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 82 | — | 0 |
| 06/13 | 2/5 | 1 | 33% | 0% | 0% | 92 | — | 1 |
| 06/12 | 1/4 | 0 | 33% | 67% | 0% | 86 | 0% | 0 |
| 06/11 | 0/3 | 2 | 0% | 100% | 0% | 96 | 0% | 0 |
| 06/10 | 1/3 | 0 | 0% | 33% | 0% | 95 | 0% | 0 |
Swing & Bat Tracking (477 swings)
bat tracking
Bat speed75.5 mph
Swing length7.5 ft
Attack angle12.0°
contact
swing timing
Early17%
On-time65%
Late18%
miss profile
Over13%
Under28%
Tied-up5%
Centered72%
Flailed23%
Batter power & contact · longer + greener = more HR-likely
vs LHP · 2 HR in 99 PA
vs RHP · 11 HR in 214 PA
Matchup strength · longer + greener = more HR-favorable
matchup strength
supporting
Home / Away HR splits · season-to-date
Home HOME7 HR / 140 PA · 5.0%
Home · .633 SLG
Away AWAY5 HR / 152 PA · 3.3%
Away · .462 SLG
Park fit · spray vs this yard
Pulls 22% of contact in the air; his pull side is RF here — HR factor ×0.83 → park fights his pull power.
Pitcher
Walbert Ureña • RHP (LAA)LAA @ ARI | vs ARI4/4 W–L (Tied–59th) • 2.44 ERA • 55 Ks (Tied–90th) • 1.36 WHIP0.5 HR/9 • 12% Barrel • 19% FB • 22% K • 2.44 ERA (H 1.85 / A 3.86)▲ Easier to take deep lately0.73hittability
Walbert Ureña • RHP (LAA)
LAA @ ARI | vs ARI
4/4 W–L (Tied–59th) • 2.44 ERA • 55 Ks (Tied–90th) • 1.36 WHIP
0.5 HR/9 • 12% Barrel • 19% FB • 22% K • 2.44 ERA (H 1.85 / A 3.86)
▲ Easier to take deep lately
0.73
hittability
Last 3 starts · IP / pitches / HR
▲ Easier to take deep lately This pitcher is trending toward giving up home runs.
06/09 5.0 IP · 107 P0 HR
06/03 6.0 IP · 99 P1 HR
05/29 6.0 IP · 92 P1 HR
Pitches to target · go-deep pitches
The pitches he's given up the most homers on — and the bats most likely to punish them.
vs lefty batsno clear target
Most likely to capitalize: Carroll 27%, Marte 25%, Perdomo 6%
vs righty batssinker
Most likely to capitalize: Moreno 11%, Jr. 7%, Arenado 7%
HR hittability vs a league-average hitter · longer + greener = easier to take deep
vs LHB · 0.6 HR/9 · 1 HR in 140 PA
vs RHB · 0.8 HR/9 · 2 HR in 139 PA
Pitch mix · stuff · HR rating · swing-and-miss · contact
spin 1:30
spin 1:51
spin 1:26
spin 7:43
spin 1:30
spin 1:51
spin 1:26
spin 7:43
spin 1:30
spin 1:51
spin 1:26
spin 7:43
Where he’s hittable · xSLG allowed by zone (vs LHB)
Green = he gives up slug there. Tap a band → out/mid/in cells → each pitch’s xSLG + a cyan contact-allowed bar. Cell splits use 2025–26; display only.
Splits · home/away & batter hand
| HR/9 | HR | Barrel | FB% | K% | ERA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 0.23 | 1 | — | — | 25% | 1.85 |
| Away | 1.65 | 3 | — | — | 18% | 3.86 |
| vs LHB | 0.61 | 1 | 10% | 20% | 22% | — |
| vs RHB | 0.79 | 2 | 15% | 20% | 23% | — |
HR = home runs allowed (season-to-date). ERA isn’t reported by batter hand, and barrel/FB% aren’t available by home/away — those cells show —.
Pitcher summary · vs LHB
Walbert Ureña carries a 0.55 HR/9 and gave up 0 in his last outing (2 over his last 3). ARI is a tough HR park for LH hitters (26th).
Sam Aldegheri • LHP (LAA)LAA @ ARI | vs ARI2/1 W–L • 2.12 ERA • 12 Ks • 1.29 WHIP0.8 HR/9 • 12% Barrel • 26% FB • 19% K • 2.12 ERA (H 1.76 / A 5.40)▬ Holding steady1.10hittability
Sam Aldegheri • LHP (LAA)
LAA @ ARI | vs ARI
2/1 W–L • 2.12 ERA • 12 Ks • 1.29 WHIP
0.8 HR/9 • 12% Barrel • 26% FB • 19% K • 2.12 ERA (H 1.76 / A 5.40)
▬ Holding steady
1.10
hittability
Last 3 outings · IP / pitches / HR
▬ Holding steady No big change in his home-run risk lately.
06/12 5.0 IP · 74 P0 HR
06/08 1.0 IP · 8 P relief0 HR
06/02 5.1 IP · 89 P bulk0 HR
Not enough data for this view.
HR hittability vs a league-average hitter · longer + greener = easier to take deep
vs LHB · 1.2 HR/9 · 1 HR in 29 PA
vs RHB · 0.7 HR/9 · 0 HR in 51 PA
Pitch mix · stuff · HR rating · swing-and-miss · contact
Splits · home/away & batter hand
| HR/9 | HR | Barrel | FB% | K% | ERA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 0.00 | 0 | — | — | 16% | 1.76 |
| Away | 5.40 | 1 | — | — | 25% | 5.40 |
| vs LHB | 1.23 | 1 | 15% | 25% | 17% | — |
| vs RHB | 0.73 | 0 | 10% | 24% | 22% | — |
HR = home runs allowed (season-to-date). ERA isn’t reported by batter hand, and barrel/FB% aren’t available by home/away — those cells show —.
Pitcher summary · vs LHB
Sam Aldegheri carries a 0.79 HR/9. He owns a 5.40 ERA on the road. ARI is a tough HR park for LH hitters (26th).
Mitch Farris • LHP (LAA)LAA @ ARI | vs ARI0/0 W–L • 2.96 ERA • 27 Ks • 1.50 WHIP1.4 HR/9 • 16% Barrel • 20% FB • 23% K • 2.96 ERA (H 2.53 / A 3.24)◐ Homer-prone on the year, quieter last 30.98hittability
Mitch Farris • LHP (LAA)
LAA @ ARI | vs ARI
0/0 W–L • 2.96 ERA • 27 Ks • 1.50 WHIP
1.4 HR/9 • 16% Barrel • 20% FB • 23% K • 2.96 ERA (H 2.53 / A 3.24)
◐ Homer-prone on the year, quieter last 3
0.98
hittability
Last 3 games · IP / pitches / HR
◐ Homer-prone on the year, quieter last 3 Homer-prone over the full season — the quiet recent stretch is a small sample the model discounts.
06/12 2.2 IP · 48 P0 HR
06/07 1.0 IP · 16 P0 HR
05/31 4.0 IP · 64 P0 HR
Pitches to target · go-deep pitches
The pitches he's given up the most homers on — and the bats most likely to punish them.
vs lefty batsno clear target
Most likely to capitalize: Carroll 27%
vs righty batscutter · change
Most likely to capitalize: Marte 25%, Moreno 11%, Jr. 7%
HR hittability vs a league-average hitter · longer + greener = easier to take deep
vs LHB · 0.7 HR/9 · 0 HR in 61 PA
vs RHB · 1.9 HR/9 · 5 HR in 73 PA
Pitch mix · stuff · HR rating · swing-and-miss · contact
Splits · home/away & batter hand
| HR/9 | HR | Barrel | FB% | K% | ERA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 0.84 | 1 | — | — | 20% | 2.53 |
| Away | 2.16 | 4 | — | — | 24% | 3.24 |
| vs LHB | 0.68 | 0 | 12% | 20% | 26% | — |
| vs RHB | 1.87 | 5 | 17% | 23% | 20% | — |
HR = home runs allowed (season-to-date). ERA isn’t reported by batter hand, and barrel/FB% aren’t available by home/away — those cells show —.
Pitcher summary · vs LHB
Mitch Farris carries a 1.35 HR/9. ARI is a tough HR park for LH hitters (26th).
Kirby Yates • RHP (LAA)LAA @ ARI | vs ARI0/2 W–L • 4.38 ERA • 16 Ks • 1.14 WHIP1.2 HR/9 • 14% Barrel • 25% FB • 25% K • 4.38 ERA (H 2.79 / A 10.13)◐ Homer-prone on the year, quieter last 30.97hittability
Kirby Yates • RHP (LAA)
LAA @ ARI | vs ARI
0/2 W–L • 4.38 ERA • 16 Ks • 1.14 WHIP
1.2 HR/9 • 14% Barrel • 25% FB • 25% K • 4.38 ERA (H 2.79 / A 10.13)
◐ Homer-prone on the year, quieter last 3
0.97
hittability
Last 3 games · IP / pitches / HR
◐ Homer-prone on the year, quieter last 3 Homer-prone over the full season — the quiet recent stretch is a small sample the model discounts.
06/13 1.0 IP · 9 P0 HR
06/09 1.0 IP · 12 P0 HR
06/08 1.0 IP · 24 P0 HR
Pitches to target · go-deep pitches
The pitches he's given up the most homers on — and the bats most likely to punish them.
vs lefty bats4-seam
Most likely to capitalize: Carroll 27%, Marte 25%, Perdomo 6%
vs righty batsno clear target
Most likely to capitalize: Moreno 11%, Jr. 7%, Arenado 7%
HR hittability vs a league-average hitter · longer + greener = easier to take deep
vs LHB · 1.5 HR/9 · 2 HR in 33 PA
vs RHB · 0.9 HR/9 · 0 HR in 30 PA
Pitch mix · stuff · HR rating · swing-and-miss · contact
Splits · home/away & batter hand
| HR/9 | HR | Barrel | FB% | K% | ERA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 0.93 | 1 | — | — | 33% | 2.79 |
| Away | 3.38 | 1 | — | — | 21% | 10.13 |
| vs LHB | 1.52 | 2 | 17% | 25% | 27% | — |
| vs RHB | 0.87 | 0 | 11% | 23% | 21% | — |
HR = home runs allowed (season-to-date). ERA isn’t reported by batter hand, and barrel/FB% aren’t available by home/away — those cells show —.
Pitcher summary · vs LHB
Kirby Yates carries a 1.20 HR/9. He owns a 10.13 ERA on the road. ARI is a tough HR park for LH hitters (26th).
José Fermin • RHP (LAA)LAA @ ARI | vs ARI2/1 W–L • 5.40 ERA • 18 Ks • 1.67 WHIP1.1 HR/9 • 16% Barrel • 21% FB • 24% K • 5.40 ERA (H 8.53 / A 3.12)▲ Easier to take deep lately0.90hittability
José Fermin • RHP (LAA)
LAA @ ARI | vs ARI
2/1 W–L • 5.40 ERA • 18 Ks • 1.67 WHIP
1.1 HR/9 • 16% Barrel • 21% FB • 24% K • 5.40 ERA (H 8.53 / A 3.12)
▲ Easier to take deep lately
0.90
hittability
Last 3 games · IP / pitches / HR
▲ Easier to take deep lately This pitcher is trending toward giving up home runs.
06/01 0.2 IP · 39 P1 HR
05/30 0.2 IP · 20 P0 HR
05/28 1.0 IP · 13 P0 HR
Pitches to target · go-deep pitches
The pitches he's given up the most homers on — and the bats most likely to punish them.
vs lefty bats4-seam
Most likely to capitalize: Carroll 27%, Marte 25%, Perdomo 6%
vs righty batsno clear target
Most likely to capitalize: Moreno 11%, Jr. 7%, Arenado 7%
HR hittability vs a league-average hitter · longer + greener = easier to take deep
vs LHB · 1.2 HR/9 · 1 HR in 36 PA
vs RHB · 1.1 HR/9 · 1 HR in 39 PA
Pitch mix · stuff · HR rating · swing-and-miss · contact
Splits · home/away & batter hand
| HR/9 | HR | Barrel | FB% | K% | ERA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.84 | 2 | — | — | 22% | 8.53 |
| Away | 0.00 | 0 | — | — | 29% | 3.12 |
| vs LHB | 1.15 | 1 | 17% | 21% | 21% | — |
| vs RHB | 1.13 | 1 | 13% | 23% | 25% | — |
HR = home runs allowed (season-to-date). ERA isn’t reported by batter hand, and barrel/FB% aren’t available by home/away — those cells show —.
Pitcher summary · vs LHB
José Fermin carries a 1.10 HR/9 and gave up 1 in his last outing. ARI is a tough HR park for LH hitters (26th).
Samy Natera Jr. • LHP (LAA)LAA @ ARI | vs ARI0/0 W–L • 0.00 ERA • 6 Ks • 0.64 WHIP0.8 HR/9 • 12% Barrel • 30% FB • 25% K • 0.00 ERA (H 0.00 / A 0.00)▬ Holding steady0.89hittability
Samy Natera Jr. • LHP (LAA)
LAA @ ARI | vs ARI
0/0 W–L • 0.00 ERA • 6 Ks • 0.64 WHIP
0.8 HR/9 • 12% Barrel • 30% FB • 25% K • 0.00 ERA (H 0.00 / A 0.00)
▬ Holding steady
0.89
hittability
Last 3 games · IP / pitches / HR
▬ Holding steady No big change in his home-run risk lately.
06/13 2.0 IP · 29 P0 HR
06/08 0.2 IP · 9 P0 HR
06/06 2.0 IP · 31 P0 HR
Not enough data for this view.
HR hittability vs a league-average hitter · longer + greener = easier to take deep
vs LHB · 1.1 HR/9 · 0 HR in 11 PA
vs RHB · 1.0 HR/9 · 0 HR in 16 PA
Pitch mix · stuff · HR rating · swing-and-miss · contact
Splits · home/away & batter hand
| HR/9 | HR | Barrel | FB% | K% | ERA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 0.00 | 0 | — | — | 30% | 0.00 |
| Away | 0.00 | 0 | — | — | 43% | 0.00 |
| vs LHB | 1.05 | 0 | 13% | 25% | 21% | — |
| vs RHB | 1.00 | 0 | 13% | 27% | 26% | — |
HR = home runs allowed (season-to-date). ERA isn’t reported by batter hand, and barrel/FB% aren’t available by home/away — those cells show —.
Pitcher summary · vs LHB
Samy Natera Jr. carries a 0.83 HR/9. ARI is a tough HR park for LH hitters (26th).
Brent Suter • LHP (LAA)LAA @ ARI | vs ARI1/2 W–L • 4.20 ERA • 33 Ks • 1.25 WHIP1.1 HR/9 • 12% Barrel • 17% FB • 21% K • 4.20 ERA (H 4.50 / A 3.97)▬ Holding steady0.85hittability
Brent Suter • LHP (LAA)
LAA @ ARI | vs ARI
1/2 W–L • 4.20 ERA • 33 Ks • 1.25 WHIP
1.1 HR/9 • 12% Barrel • 17% FB • 21% K • 4.20 ERA (H 4.50 / A 3.97)
▬ Holding steady
0.85
hittability
Last 3 games · IP / pitches / HR
▬ Holding steady No big change in his home-run risk lately.
06/14 2.0 IP · 19 P0 HR
06/13 1.0 IP · 16 P0 HR
06/09 2.0 IP · 35 P0 HR
Pitches to target · go-deep pitches
The pitches he's given up the most homers on — and the bats most likely to punish them.
vs lefty batssinker
Most likely to capitalize: Carroll 27%
vs righty batsslider · 4-seam
Most likely to capitalize: Marte 25%, Moreno 11%, Jr. 7%
HR hittability vs a league-average hitter · longer + greener = easier to take deep
vs LHB · 1.4 HR/9 · 3 HR in 75 PA
vs RHB · 1.0 HR/9 · 3 HR in 129 PA
Pitch mix · stuff · HR rating · swing-and-miss · contact
Splits · home/away & batter hand
| HR/9 | HR | Barrel | FB% | K% | ERA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 0.50 | 1 | — | — | 18% | 4.50 |
| Away | 1.19 | 3 | — | — | 22% | 3.97 |
| vs LHB | 1.35 | 3 | 15% | 18% | 21% | — |
| vs RHB | 1.00 | 3 | 11% | 19% | 21% | — |
HR = home runs allowed (season-to-date). ERA isn’t reported by batter hand, and barrel/FB% aren’t available by home/away — those cells show —.
Pitcher summary · vs LHB
Brent Suter carries a 1.14 HR/9. Lefties have taken him deep 3 of 6 times (1.3 HR/9 to LHB). ARI is a tough HR park for LH hitters (26th).
Ryan Zeferjahn • RHP (LAA)LAA @ ARI | vs ARI3/3 W–L • 4.91 ERA • 42 Ks • 1.36 WHIP0.9 HR/9 • 12% Barrel • 22% FB • 25% K • 4.91 ERA (H 6.23 / A 3.45)◐ Homer-prone on the year, quieter last 30.75hittability
Ryan Zeferjahn • RHP (LAA)
LAA @ ARI | vs ARI
3/3 W–L • 4.91 ERA • 42 Ks • 1.36 WHIP
0.9 HR/9 • 12% Barrel • 22% FB • 25% K • 4.91 ERA (H 6.23 / A 3.45)
◐ Homer-prone on the year, quieter last 3
0.75
hittability
Last 3 games · IP / pitches / HR
◐ Homer-prone on the year, quieter last 3 Homer-prone over the full season — the quiet recent stretch is a small sample the model discounts.
06/14 1.0 IP · 10 P0 HR
06/12 0.1 IP · 9 P0 HR
06/10 1.0 IP · 21 P0 HR
Not enough data for this view.
HR hittability vs a league-average hitter · longer + greener = easier to take deep
vs LHB · 0.8 HR/9 · 1 HR in 80 PA
vs RHB · 1.2 HR/9 · 3 HR in 97 PA
Pitch mix · stuff · HR rating · swing-and-miss · contact
Splits · home/away & batter hand
| HR/9 | HR | Barrel | FB% | K% | ERA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 0.52 | 1 | — | — | 25% | 6.23 |
| Away | 1.15 | 2 | — | — | 32% | 3.45 |
| vs LHB | 0.84 | 1 | 15% | 24% | 27% | — |
| vs RHB | 1.19 | 3 | 11% | 22% | 23% | — |
HR = home runs allowed (season-to-date). ERA isn’t reported by batter hand, and barrel/FB% aren’t available by home/away — those cells show —.
Pitcher summary · vs LHB
Ryan Zeferjahn carries a 0.95 HR/9. ARI is a tough HR park for LH hitters (26th).
Chase Silseth • RHP (LAA)LAA @ ARI | vs ARI1/1 W–L • 1.78 ERA • 27 Ks • 1.38 WHIP0.9 HR/9 • 13% Barrel • 22% FB • 24% K • 1.78 ERA (H 2.03 / A 1.50)▲ Easier to take deep lately0.73hittability
Chase Silseth • RHP (LAA)
LAA @ ARI | vs ARI
1/1 W–L • 1.78 ERA • 27 Ks • 1.38 WHIP
0.9 HR/9 • 13% Barrel • 22% FB • 24% K • 1.78 ERA (H 2.03 / A 1.50)
▲ Easier to take deep lately
0.73
hittability
Last 3 games · IP / pitches / HR
▲ Easier to take deep lately This pitcher is trending toward giving up home runs.
06/14 0.2 IP · 10 P0 HR
06/12 1.0 IP · 16 P0 HR
06/10 1.0 IP · 15 P1 HR
Pitches to target · go-deep pitches
The pitches he's given up the most homers on — and the bats most likely to punish them.
vs lefty batsno clear target
Most likely to capitalize: Carroll 27%, Marte 25%, Perdomo 6%
vs righty batssplit
Most likely to capitalize: Moreno 11%, Jr. 7%, Arenado 7%
HR hittability vs a league-average hitter · longer + greener = easier to take deep
vs LHB · 0.9 HR/9 · 1 HR in 72 PA
vs RHB · 1.2 HR/9 · 2 HR in 64 PA
Pitch mix · stuff · HR rating · swing-and-miss · contact
Splits · home/away & batter hand
| HR/9 | HR | Barrel | FB% | K% | ERA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.35 | 2 | — | — | 31% | 2.03 |
| Away | 0.00 | 0 | — | — | 18% | 1.50 |
| vs LHB | 0.88 | 1 | 12% | 23% | 24% | — |
| vs RHB | 1.19 | 2 | 14% | 23% | 23% | — |
HR = home runs allowed (season-to-date). ERA isn’t reported by batter hand, and barrel/FB% aren’t available by home/away — those cells show —.
Pitcher summary · vs LHB
Chase Silseth carries a 0.95 HR/9 and gave up 0 in his last outing (1 over his last 3). ARI is a tough HR park for LH hitters (26th).
Sam Bachman • RHP (LAA)LAA @ ARI | vs ARI1/1 W–L • 3.31 ERA • 35 Ks • 1.22 WHIP1.0 HR/9 • 9% Barrel • 25% FB • 28% K • 3.31 ERA (H 3.32 / A 3.29)▲ Easier to take deep lately0.61hittability
Sam Bachman • RHP (LAA)
LAA @ ARI | vs ARI
1/1 W–L • 3.31 ERA • 35 Ks • 1.22 WHIP
1.0 HR/9 • 9% Barrel • 25% FB • 28% K • 3.31 ERA (H 3.32 / A 3.29)
▲ Easier to take deep lately
0.61
hittability
Last 3 games · IP / pitches / HR
▲ Easier to take deep lately This pitcher is trending toward giving up home runs.
06/14 1.0 IP · 31 P2 HR
06/10 1.0 IP · 9 P0 HR
06/08 1.0 IP · 16 P0 HR
Pitches to target · go-deep pitches
The pitches he's given up the most homers on — and the bats most likely to punish them.
vs lefty batschange
Most likely to capitalize: Carroll 27%, Marte 25%, Perdomo 6%
vs righty batsslider
Most likely to capitalize: Moreno 11%, Jr. 7%, Arenado 7%
HR hittability vs a league-average hitter · longer + greener = easier to take deep
vs LHB · 1.1 HR/9 · 2 HR in 81 PA
vs RHB · 1.1 HR/9 · 2 HR in 79 PA
Pitch mix · stuff · HR rating · swing-and-miss · contact
Splits · home/away & batter hand
| HR/9 | HR | Barrel | FB% | K% | ERA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.42 | 3 | — | — | 27% | 3.32 |
| Away | 0.66 | 1 | — | — | 24% | 3.29 |
| vs LHB | 1.07 | 2 | 11% | 26% | 29% | — |
| vs RHB | 1.08 | 2 | 11% | 23% | 24% | — |
HR = home runs allowed (season-to-date). ERA isn’t reported by batter hand, and barrel/FB% aren’t available by home/away — those cells show —.
Pitcher summary · vs LHB
Sam Bachman carries a 1.02 HR/9 and gave up 2 in his last outing. Lefties have taken him deep 2 of 4 times (1.2 HR/9 to LHB). ARI is a tough HR park for LH hitters (26th).
Pick who he’ll face
Matchup vs Walbert UreñaC
Arms like Walbert Ureña
Most similar arsenals (velocity, movement, mix): Brayan Bello, Jonathan Loáisiga, Bradgley Rodriguez, George Soriano, Michael King, George Kirby.
vs arms like this (since 2025), 2 HR in 22 PA (9.1% · league ~3%).
Matchup vs Sam AldegheriA · ×1.16
Arms like Sam Aldegheri
Most similar arsenals (velocity, movement, mix): Jacob Latz, Matthew Boyd, Eduardo Rodriguez, Mitch Farris, Jovani Morán, Jeffrey Springs.
vs arms like this (since 2025), 0 HR in 33 PA (0.0% · league ~3%).
Matchup vs Mitch FarrisA · ×1.17
Arms like Mitch Farris
Most similar arsenals (velocity, movement, mix): Jeffrey Springs, Eric Lauer, Matthew Boyd, José Suarez, Eduardo Rodriguez, Jacob Latz.
vs arms like this (since 2025), 2 HR in 25 PA (8.0% · league ~3%).
Matchup vs Kirby YatesA · ×1.11
Arms like Kirby Yates
Most similar arsenals (velocity, movement, mix): Kyle Finnegan, Kevin Gausman, Tyler Mahle, Chase Silseth, Joe Ryan, Cade Smith.
vs arms like this (since 2025), 1 HR in 21 PA (4.8% · league ~3%).
Matchup vs José FerminA · ×1.18
Arms like José Fermin
Most similar arsenals (velocity, movement, mix): Andrés Muñoz, Dennis Santana, Kevin Ginkel, Jonathan Bowlan, Nick Mears, Dylan Cease.
vs arms like this (since 2025), 0 HR in 11 PA (0.0% · league ~3%).
Matchup vs Samy Natera Jr.A · ×1.18
Matchup vs Brent SuterA · ×1.13
Arms like Brent Suter
Most similar arsenals (velocity, movement, mix): David Peterson, José Suarez, Jeffrey Springs, Patrick Corbin, Parker Messick, Mitch Farris.
vs arms like this (since 2025), 1 HR in 32 PA (3.1% · league ~3%).
Matchup vs Ryan ZeferjahnA · ×1.14
Arms like Ryan Zeferjahn
Most similar arsenals (velocity, movement, mix): Luis Severino, Shohei Ohtani, Andrew Painter, Jack Perkins, Brad Keller, Kyle Leahy.
vs arms like this (since 2025), 1 HR in 22 PA (4.5% · league ~3%).
Matchup vs Chase SilsethB · ×1.09
Arms like Chase Silseth
Most similar arsenals (velocity, movement, mix): Seranthony Domínguez, Zack Wheeler, Kyle Finnegan, Yoendrys Gómez, Ryan Weiss, Orion Kerkering.
vs arms like this (since 2025), 2 HR in 25 PA (8.0% · league ~3%).
Matchup vs Sam BachmanA · ×1.17
Arms like Sam Bachman
Most similar arsenals (velocity, movement, mix): Tommy Nance, Jaden Hill, Abner Uribe, JT Brubaker, Max Meyer, Camilo Doval.
vs arms like this (since 2025), 2 HR in 22 PA (9.1% · league ~3%).
Ian Happ SCHC HOME vs Michael Lorenzen R · CHCwind 1.06park 0.97brl 16%recent 12% HOT27%MatchupA++271
Ian Happ S
CHC HOME vs Michael Lorenzen R · CHC
wind 1.06park 0.97brl 16%recent 12% HOT
27%
MatchupA+
+271
Ian Happ S
CHC HOME vs Michael Lorenzen R · CHC
wind 1.06park 0.97brl 16%recent 12% HOT
27%
Matchup summary · vs Michael Lorenzen
Batter Summary 📈 Trending up
Happ has 12 of his 16 HRs off RHP, 45% hard-hit that side. 9 of his 16 HRs have come at home, slugging .550 there. Happ has been hot against arms like this lately.
Form Last ~3 weeks (recency-weighted): .369 xwOBAcon (lg .372), 12% well-hit (lg 14%), 44% hard-hit · 3 HR in 54 PA. Recent contact quality is beating league — the rating catches the heat before the HR totals show it.
Ranking Reasoning
Strong HR spot.
A homer-prone starter, the park favors RH power and his fastball is flattening.
A homer-prone starter, the park favors RH power and his fastball is flattening.
🏟️ Homered here 23× at this park (since ’25)
⚾ vs Lorenzen (career): 3/12 AB | 2 HR | 4K
Pitch by Pitch
Pitch-by-pitch · Lorenzen throws / Happ hits
Stuff & usage = the arm’s; whiff / contact / EV / barrel / air-ground / HR = Happ’s 2026 vs RHP · green = bat’s edge
ChangeSt 6126% used
Whiff
25%
Contact
75%
EV
88
Barrel
4%
Air/Gnd
16/56
HR
0
25 BBE
4-SeamSt 4625% used
Whiff
30%
Contact
70%
EV
93
Barrel
21%
Air/Gnd
32/32
HR
5
34 BBE
CurveSt 3215% used
Whiff
50%
Contact
50%
EV
94
Barrel
12%
Air/Gnd
38/25
HR
0
8 BBE
CutterSt 4814% used
Whiff
31%
Contact
69%
EV
94
Barrel
25%
Air/Gnd
50/12
HR
2
8 BBE
SinkerSt 4211% used
Whiff
18%
Contact
82%
EV
103
Barrel
40%
Air/Gnd
60/0
HR
1
5 BBE
SliderSt 137% used
Whiff
40%
Contact
60%
EV
92
Barrel
15%
Air/Gnd
23/23
HR
2
13 BBE
Pitch-by-pitch · Agnos throws / Happ hits
Stuff & usage = the arm’s; whiff / contact / EV / barrel / air-ground / HR = Happ’s 2026 vs RHP · green = bat’s edge
4-Seam—29% used
Whiff
30%
Contact
70%
EV
93
Barrel
21%
Air/Gnd
32/32
HR
5
34 BBE
Cutter—28% used
Whiff
31%
Contact
69%
EV
94
Barrel
25%
Air/Gnd
50/12
HR
2
8 BBE
Splitter—23% used
Whiff
8%
Contact
92%
EV
83
Barrel
0%
Air/Gnd
20/70
HR
0
10 BBE
Sweeper—9% used
Whiff
34%
Contact
66%
EV
89
Barrel
11%
Air/Gnd
67/11
HR
1
9 BBE
Slider—7% used
Whiff
40%
Contact
60%
EV
92
Barrel
15%
Air/Gnd
23/23
HR
2
13 BBE
Sinker—4% used
Whiff
18%
Contact
82%
EV
103
Barrel
40%
Air/Gnd
60/0
HR
1
5 BBE
Pitch-by-pitch · Castaño throws / Happ hits
Stuff & usage = the arm’s; whiff / contact / EV / barrel / air-ground / HR = Happ’s 2026 vs RHP · green = bat’s edge
Sinker—31% used
Whiff
18%
Contact
82%
EV
103
Barrel
40%
Air/Gnd
60/0
HR
1
5 BBE
Cutter—26% used
Whiff
31%
Contact
69%
EV
94
Barrel
25%
Air/Gnd
50/12
HR
2
8 BBE
Change—22% used
Whiff
25%
Contact
75%
EV
88
Barrel
4%
Air/Gnd
16/56
HR
0
25 BBE
Sweeper—15% used
Whiff
34%
Contact
66%
EV
89
Barrel
11%
Air/Gnd
67/11
HR
1
9 BBE
4-Seam—6% used
Whiff
30%
Contact
70%
EV
93
Barrel
21%
Air/Gnd
32/32
HR
5
34 BBE
Pitch-by-pitch · Senzatela throws / Happ hits
Stuff & usage = the arm’s; whiff / contact / EV / barrel / air-ground / HR = Happ’s 2026 vs RHP · green = bat’s edge
4-Seam—55% used
Whiff
30%
Contact
70%
EV
93
Barrel
21%
Air/Gnd
32/32
HR
5
34 BBE
Curve—17% used
Whiff
50%
Contact
50%
EV
94
Barrel
12%
Air/Gnd
38/25
HR
0
8 BBE
Change—14% used
Whiff
25%
Contact
75%
EV
88
Barrel
4%
Air/Gnd
16/56
HR
0
25 BBE
Slider—7% used
Whiff
40%
Contact
60%
EV
92
Barrel
15%
Air/Gnd
23/23
HR
2
13 BBE
Cutter—6% used
Whiff
31%
Contact
69%
EV
94
Barrel
25%
Air/Gnd
50/12
HR
2
8 BBE
Pitch-by-pitch · Mejia throws / Happ hits
Stuff & usage = the arm’s; whiff / contact / EV / barrel / air-ground / HR = Happ’s 2026 vs RHP · green = bat’s edge
4-Seam—69% used
Whiff
30%
Contact
70%
EV
93
Barrel
21%
Air/Gnd
32/32
HR
5
34 BBE
Sweeper—27% used
Whiff
34%
Contact
66%
EV
89
Barrel
11%
Air/Gnd
67/11
HR
1
9 BBE
Pitch-by-pitch · Vodnik throws / Happ hits
Stuff & usage = the arm’s; whiff / contact / EV / barrel / air-ground / HR = Happ’s 2026 vs RHP · green = bat’s edge
4-Seam—54% used
Whiff
30%
Contact
70%
EV
93
Barrel
21%
Air/Gnd
32/32
HR
5
34 BBE
Change—38% used
Whiff
25%
Contact
75%
EV
88
Barrel
4%
Air/Gnd
16/56
HR
0
25 BBE
Slider—6% used
Whiff
40%
Contact
60%
EV
92
Barrel
15%
Air/Gnd
23/23
HR
2
13 BBE
Pitch-by-pitch · Bernardino throws / Happ hits
Stuff & usage = the arm’s; whiff / contact / EV / barrel / air-ground / HR = Happ’s 2026 vs LHP · green = bat’s edge
Sinker—33% used
Whiff
0%
Contact
100%
EV
90
Barrel
0%
Air/Gnd
33/56
HR
0
9 BBE
Curve—22% used
Whiff
62%
Contact
38%
EV
—
Barrel
—
Air/Gnd
—
HR
—
thin 2026
Cutter—21% used
Whiff
11%
Contact
89%
EV
—
Barrel
—
Air/Gnd
—
HR
—
thin 2026
Change—18% used
Whiff
43%
Contact
57%
EV
78
Barrel
0%
Air/Gnd
33/50
HR
0
6 BBE
4-Seam—4% used
Whiff
10%
Contact
90%
EV
92
Barrel
6%
Air/Gnd
38/31
HR
1
16 BBE
Pitch-by-pitch · Hill throws / Happ hits
Stuff & usage = the arm’s; whiff / contact / EV / barrel / air-ground / HR = Happ’s 2026 vs RHP · green = bat’s edge
Change—35% used
Whiff
25%
Contact
75%
EV
88
Barrel
4%
Air/Gnd
16/56
HR
0
25 BBE
4-Seam—30% used
Whiff
30%
Contact
70%
EV
93
Barrel
21%
Air/Gnd
32/32
HR
5
34 BBE
Sinker—18% used
Whiff
18%
Contact
82%
EV
103
Barrel
40%
Air/Gnd
60/0
HR
1
5 BBE
Slider—17% used
Whiff
40%
Contact
60%
EV
92
Barrel
15%
Air/Gnd
23/23
HR
2
13 BBE
Pitch-by-pitch · Halvorsen throws / Happ hits
Stuff & usage = the arm’s; whiff / contact / EV / barrel / air-ground / HR = Happ’s 2026 vs RHP · green = bat’s edge
4-Seam—61% used
Whiff
30%
Contact
70%
EV
93
Barrel
21%
Air/Gnd
32/32
HR
5
34 BBE
Splitter—28% used
Whiff
8%
Contact
92%
EV
83
Barrel
0%
Air/Gnd
20/70
HR
0
10 BBE
Slider—11% used
Whiff
40%
Contact
60%
EV
92
Barrel
15%
Air/Gnd
23/23
HR
2
13 BBE
🎯 Target
Matchup-Fit · barrel alignment vs Michael Lorenzen’s arsenal
Change 26% usedbarrels 4% · allows 7%
4-Seam 25% usedbarrels 21% · allows 19% · 5 HR
Curve 15% usedbarrels 12% · allows 8%
Cutter 14% usedbarrels 25% · allows 5% · 2 HR
Sinker 11% usedbarrels 40% · allows 0% · 1 HR
Air / Park
Pulls 28% in the air; pull side RF — park ×1.24 × wind out to RF (10 mph) ×1.03 → net ×1.28 → park+wind fits his pull power.
Recent form · last 5
Barrel 7% · EV 86 · 2 HR over his last 5.
Matchup-Fit · barrel alignment vs Zach Agnos’s arsenal
4-Seam 29% usedbarrels 21% · allows 6% · 5 HR
Cutter 28% usedbarrels 25% · allows 9% · 2 HR
Splitter 23% usedbarrels 0% · allows 0%
Sweeper 9% usedbarrels 11% · allows — · 1 HR
Slider 7% usedbarrels 15% · allows — · 2 HR
Air / Park
Pulls 28% in the air; pull side RF — park ×1.24 × wind out to RF (10 mph) ×1.03 → net ×1.28 → park+wind fits his pull power.
Recent form · last 5
Barrel 7% · EV 86 · 2 HR over his last 5.
Matchup-Fit · barrel alignment vs Blas Castaño’s arsenal
Sinker 31% usedbarrels 40% · allows 0% · 1 HR
Cutter 26% usedbarrels 25% · allows — · 2 HR
Change 22% usedbarrels 4% · allows —
Sweeper 15% usedbarrels 11% · allows — · 1 HR
4-Seam 6% usedbarrels 21% · allows — · 5 HR
Air / Park
Pulls 28% in the air; pull side RF — park ×1.24 × wind out to RF (10 mph) ×1.03 → net ×1.28 → park+wind fits his pull power.
Recent form · last 5
Barrel 7% · EV 86 · 2 HR over his last 5.
Matchup-Fit · barrel alignment vs Antonio Senzatela’s arsenal
4-Seam 55% usedbarrels 21% · allows 12% · 5 HR
Curve 17% usedbarrels 12% · allows —
Change 14% usedbarrels 4% · allows 12%
Slider 7% usedbarrels 15% · allows — · 2 HR
Cutter 6% usedbarrels 25% · allows 0% · 2 HR
Air / Park
Pulls 28% in the air; pull side RF — park ×1.24 × wind out to RF (10 mph) ×1.03 → net ×1.28 → park+wind fits his pull power.
Recent form · last 5
Barrel 7% · EV 86 · 2 HR over his last 5.
Matchup-Fit · barrel alignment vs Juan Mejia’s arsenal
4-Seam 69% usedbarrels 21% · allows 6% · 5 HR
Sweeper 27% usedbarrels 11% · allows 8% · 1 HR
Air / Park
Pulls 28% in the air; pull side RF — park ×1.24 × wind out to RF (10 mph) ×1.03 → net ×1.28 → park+wind fits his pull power.
Recent form · last 5
Barrel 7% · EV 86 · 2 HR over his last 5.
Matchup-Fit · barrel alignment vs Victor Vodnik’s arsenal
4-Seam 54% usedbarrels 21% · allows 0% · 5 HR
Change 38% usedbarrels 4% · allows 8%
Slider 6% usedbarrels 15% · allows — · 2 HR
Air / Park
Pulls 28% in the air; pull side RF — park ×1.24 × wind out to RF (10 mph) ×1.03 → net ×1.28 → park+wind fits his pull power.
Recent form · last 5
Barrel 7% · EV 86 · 2 HR over his last 5.
Matchup-Fit · barrel alignment vs Brennan Bernardino’s arsenal
Sinker 33% usedbarrels 0% · allows 7%
Curve 22% usedbarrels — · allows 0%
Cutter 21% usedbarrels — · allows 0% · 1 HR
Change 18% usedbarrels 0% · allows —
Air / Park
Pulls 28% in the air; pull side LF — park ×1.20 → park+wind fits his pull power.
Recent form · last 5
Barrel 7% · EV 86 · 2 HR over his last 5.
Matchup-Fit · barrel alignment vs Jaden Hill’s arsenal
Change 35% usedbarrels 4% · allows 0%
4-Seam 30% usedbarrels 21% · allows 0% · 5 HR
Sinker 18% usedbarrels 40% · allows 0% · 1 HR
Slider 17% usedbarrels 15% · allows 14% · 2 HR
Air / Park
Pulls 28% in the air; pull side RF — park ×1.24 × wind out to RF (10 mph) ×1.03 → net ×1.28 → park+wind fits his pull power.
Recent form · last 5
Barrel 7% · EV 86 · 2 HR over his last 5.
Matchup-Fit · barrel alignment vs Seth Halvorsen’s arsenal
4-Seam 61% usedbarrels 21% · allows 0% · 5 HR
Splitter 28% usedbarrels 0% · allows —
Slider 11% usedbarrels 15% · allows — · 2 HR
Air / Park
Pulls 28% in the air; pull side RF — park ×1.24 × wind out to RF (10 mph) ×1.03 → net ×1.28 → park+wind fits his pull power.
Recent form · last 5
Barrel 7% · EV 86 · 2 HR over his last 5.
Matchup Lab
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Batter Stats
Last 5 games · H/AB · K · GB · FB · barrel · EV · HR/FB · HR
| H/AB | K | GB | FB | BRL | EV | HR/FB | HR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5G | 3/20 | 7 | 43% | 36% | 7% | 86 | 40% | 2 |
| 06/14 | 0/4 | 2 | 50% | 50% | 0% | 78 | 0% | 0 |
| 06/13 | 1/5 | 2 | 67% | 33% | 33% | 97 | 100% | 1 |
| 06/12 | 0/4 | 1 | 67% | 33% | 0% | 65 | 0% | 0 |
| 06/11 | 1/3 | 1 | 0% | 33% | 0% | 92 | 0% | 0 |
| 06/10 | 1/4 | 1 | 33% | 33% | 0% | 97 | 100% | 1 |
Swing & Bat Tracking (537 swings)
bat tracking
Bat speed72.1 mph
Swing length6.9 ft
Attack angle12.4°
contact
swing timing
Early22%
On-time64%
Late14%
miss profile
Over16%
Under34%
Tied-up7%
Centered64%
Flailed29%
Batter power & contact · longer + greener = more HR-likely
vs LHP · 5 HR in 96 PA
vs RHP · 13 HR in 247 PA
Matchup strength · longer + greener = more HR-favorable
matchup strength
supporting
Home / Away HR splits · season-to-date
Home HOME9 HR / 145 PA · 6.2%
Home · .550 SLG
Away AWAY7 HR / 155 PA · 4.5%
Away · .415 SLG
Park fit · spray vs this yard
Pulls 28% of contact in the air; his pull side is RF here — HR factor ×1.24 → park fits his pull power.
Pitcher
Michael Lorenzen • RHP (COL)COL @ CHC | vs CHC2/8 W–L • 7.54 ERA • 55 Ks (Tied–90th) • 1.90 WHIP1.5 HR/9 • 15% Barrel • 23% FB • 17% K • 7.54 ERA (H 8.44 / A 6.68)◐ Homer-prone on the year, quieter last 30.95hittability
Michael Lorenzen • RHP (COL)
COL @ CHC | vs CHC
2/8 W–L • 7.54 ERA • 55 Ks (Tied–90th) • 1.90 WHIP
1.5 HR/9 • 15% Barrel • 23% FB • 17% K • 7.54 ERA (H 8.44 / A 6.68)
◐ Homer-prone on the year, quieter last 3
0.95
hittability
Last 3 starts · IP / pitches / HR
◐ Homer-prone on the year, quieter last 3 Homer-prone over the full season — the quiet recent stretch is a small sample the model discounts.
06/10 5.0 IP · 84 P0 HR
06/03 3.1 IP · 85 P1 HR
05/29 3.2 IP · 70 P0 HR
Pitches to target · go-deep pitches
The pitches he's given up the most homers on — and the bats most likely to punish them.
vs lefty bats4-seam · curve
Most likely to capitalize: Crow-Armstrong 29%, Busch 28%, Happ 27%
vs righty batsslider · change
Most likely to capitalize: Suzuki 26%, Swanson 12%, Bregman 9%
HR hittability vs a league-average hitter · longer + greener = easier to take deep
vs LHB · 1.9 HR/9 · 10 HR in 173 PA
vs RHB · 1.1 HR/9 · 5 HR in 185 PA
Pitch mix · stuff · HR rating · swing-and-miss · contact
spin 2:03
spin 1:27
spin 1:34
spin 1:01
spin 6:55
spin 9:51
spin 7:59
spin 2:03
spin 1:27
spin 1:34
spin 1:01
spin 6:55
spin 9:51
spin 7:59
spin 2:03
spin 1:27
spin 1:34
spin 1:01
spin 6:55
spin 9:51
spin 7:59
Splits · home/away & batter hand
| HR/9 | HR | Barrel | FB% | K% | ERA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.41 | 5 | — | — | 16% | 8.44 |
| Away | 1.60 | 6 | — | — | 19% | 6.68 |
| vs LHB | 1.88 | 10 | 18% | 27% | 19% | — |
| vs RHB | 1.08 | 5 | 13% | 20% | 18% | — |
HR = home runs allowed (season-to-date). ERA isn’t reported by batter hand, and barrel/FB% aren’t available by home/away — those cells show —.
Pitcher summary · vs RHB
Michael Lorenzen carries a 1.54 HR/9 and gave up 0 in his last outing (1 over his last 3). Righties have taken him deep 5 of 15 times (0.7 HR/9 to RHB). He owns a 6.68 ERA on the road. CHC ranks 4th in HR factor for RH hitters.
Zach Agnos • RHP (COL)COL @ CHC | vs CHC0/2 W–L • 7.80 ERA • 30 Ks • 1.66 WHIP1.4 HR/9 • 16% Barrel • 29% FB • 17% K • 7.80 ERA (H 8.14 / A 7.36)▬ Holding steady1.23hittability
Zach Agnos • RHP (COL)
COL @ CHC | vs CHC
0/2 W–L • 7.80 ERA • 30 Ks • 1.66 WHIP
1.4 HR/9 • 16% Barrel • 29% FB • 17% K • 7.80 ERA (H 8.14 / A 7.36)
▬ Holding steady
1.23
hittability
Last 3 outings · IP / pitches / HR
▬ Holding steady No big change in his home-run risk lately.
06/12 2.2 IP · 60 P relief0 HR
06/06 3.0 IP · 57 P2 HR
05/31 1.0 IP · 35 P relief1 HR
Pitches to target · go-deep pitches
The pitches he's given up the most homers on — and the bats most likely to punish them.
vs lefty batscutter · 4-seam
Most likely to capitalize: Crow-Armstrong 29%, Busch 28%, Happ 27%
vs righty bats4-seam
Most likely to capitalize: Suzuki 26%, Swanson 12%, Bregman 9%
HR hittability vs a league-average hitter · longer + greener = easier to take deep
vs LHB · 1.4 HR/9 · 4 HR in 98 PA
vs RHB · 1.4 HR/9 · 5 HR in 128 PA
Pitch mix · stuff · HR rating · swing-and-miss · contact
Splits · home/away & batter hand
| HR/9 | HR | Barrel | FB% | K% | ERA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.22 | 6 | — | — | 13% | 8.14 |
| Away | 0.98 | 2 | — | — | 17% | 7.36 |
| vs LHB | 1.39 | 4 | 17% | 30% | 20% | — |
| vs RHB | 1.37 | 5 | 14% | 25% | 15% | — |
HR = home runs allowed (season-to-date). ERA isn’t reported by batter hand, and barrel/FB% aren’t available by home/away — those cells show —.
Pitcher summary · vs RHB
Zach Agnos carries a 1.45 HR/9 and gave up 0 in his last outing (3 over his last 3). Righties have taken him deep 5 of 9 times (2.1 HR/9 to RHB). He owns a 7.36 ERA on the road. CHC ranks 4th in HR factor for RH hitters.
Blas Castaño • RHP (COL)COL @ CHC | vs CHC0/0 W–L • 4.19 ERA • 16 Ks • 1.45 WHIP1.9 HR/9 • 15% Barrel • 23% FB • 20% K • 4.19 ERA (H 5.59 / A 2.79)▲ Easier to take deep lately1.11hittability
Blas Castaño • RHP (COL)
COL @ CHC | vs CHC
0/0 W–L • 4.19 ERA • 16 Ks • 1.45 WHIP
1.9 HR/9 • 15% Barrel • 23% FB • 20% K • 4.19 ERA (H 5.59 / A 2.79)
▲ Easier to take deep lately
1.11
hittability
Last 3 games · IP / pitches / HR
▲ Easier to take deep lately This pitcher is trending toward giving up home runs.
06/14 1.0 IP · 20 P1 HR
06/11 2.2 IP · 46 P1 HR
06/06 2.2 IP · 46 P0 HR
Pitches to target · go-deep pitches
The pitches he's given up the most homers on — and the bats most likely to punish them.
vs lefty batscutter · sinker
Most likely to capitalize: Crow-Armstrong 29%, Busch 28%, Happ 27%
vs righty batssweeper
Most likely to capitalize: Suzuki 26%, Swanson 12%, Bregman 9%
HR hittability vs a league-average hitter · longer + greener = easier to take deep
vs LHB · 2.0 HR/9 · 4 HR in 43 PA
vs RHB · 1.1 HR/9 · 1 HR in 38 PA
Pitch mix · stuff · HR rating · swing-and-miss · contact
Splits · home/away & batter hand
| HR/9 | HR | Barrel | FB% | K% | ERA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.79 | 3 | — | — | 20% | 5.59 |
| Away | 0.93 | 1 | — | — | 19% | 2.79 |
| vs LHB | 2.02 | 4 | 15% | 22% | 15% | — |
| vs RHB | 1.14 | 1 | 14% | 25% | 27% | — |
HR = home runs allowed (season-to-date). ERA isn’t reported by batter hand, and barrel/FB% aren’t available by home/away — those cells show —.
Pitcher summary · vs RHB
Blas Castaño carries a 1.86 HR/9 and gave up 1 in his last outing (2 over his last 3). Righties have taken him deep 1 of 5 times (0.9 HR/9 to RHB). CHC ranks 4th in HR factor for RH hitters.
Antonio Senzatela • RHP (COL)COL @ CHC | vs CHC6/0 W–L (Tied–21st) • 2.11 ERA • 32 Ks • 1.02 WHIP1.0 HR/9 • 12% Barrel • 27% FB • 21% K • 2.11 ERA (H 3.50 / A 0.89)▲ Easier to take deep lately0.96hittability
Antonio Senzatela • RHP (COL)
COL @ CHC | vs CHC
6/0 W–L (Tied–21st) • 2.11 ERA • 32 Ks • 1.02 WHIP
1.0 HR/9 • 12% Barrel • 27% FB • 21% K • 2.11 ERA (H 3.50 / A 0.89)
▲ Easier to take deep lately
0.96
hittability
Last 3 games · IP / pitches / HR
▲ Easier to take deep lately This pitcher is trending toward giving up home runs.
06/10 1.0 IP · 14 P1 HR
06/09 1.0 IP · 22 P0 HR
06/05 1.2 IP · 39 P0 HR
Pitches to target · go-deep pitches
The pitches he's given up the most homers on — and the bats most likely to punish them.
vs lefty batscutter
Most likely to capitalize: Crow-Armstrong 29%, Busch 28%, Happ 27%
vs righty batscutter
Most likely to capitalize: Suzuki 26%, Swanson 12%, Bregman 9%
HR hittability vs a league-average hitter · longer + greener = easier to take deep
vs LHB · 1.1 HR/9 · 2 HR in 76 PA
vs RHB · 1.0 HR/9 · 2 HR in 95 PA
Pitch mix · stuff · HR rating · swing-and-miss · contact
Splits · home/away & batter hand
| HR/9 | HR | Barrel | FB% | K% | ERA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 0.50 | 1 | — | — | 21% | 3.50 |
| Away | 0.89 | 2 | — | — | 22% | 0.89 |
| vs LHB | 1.10 | 2 | 14% | 29% | 22% | — |
| vs RHB | 0.98 | 2 | 12% | 22% | 20% | — |
HR = home runs allowed (season-to-date). ERA isn’t reported by batter hand, and barrel/FB% aren’t available by home/away — those cells show —.
Pitcher summary · vs RHB
Antonio Senzatela carries a 0.97 HR/9 and gave up 1 in his last outing. CHC ranks 4th in HR factor for RH hitters.
Juan Mejia • RHP (COL)COL @ CHC | vs CHC1/5 W–L • 5.97 ERA • 36 Ks • 1.67 WHIP0.7 HR/9 • 12% Barrel • 25% FB • 25% K • 5.97 ERA (H 5.94 / A 6.00)▬ Holding steady0.80hittability
Juan Mejia • RHP (COL)
COL @ CHC | vs CHC
1/5 W–L • 5.97 ERA • 36 Ks • 1.67 WHIP
0.7 HR/9 • 12% Barrel • 25% FB • 25% K • 5.97 ERA (H 5.94 / A 6.00)
▬ Holding steady
0.80
hittability
Last 3 games · IP / pitches / HR
▬ Holding steady No big change in his home-run risk lately.
06/13 1.1 IP · 18 P0 HR
06/10 1.0 IP · 10 P0 HR
06/06 1.0 IP · 19 P0 HR
Not enough data for this view.
HR hittability vs a league-average hitter · longer + greener = easier to take deep
vs LHB · 1.1 HR/9 · 2 HR in 72 PA
vs RHB · 0.6 HR/9 · 0 HR in 88 PA
Pitch mix · stuff · HR rating · swing-and-miss · contact
Splits · home/away & batter hand
| HR/9 | HR | Barrel | FB% | K% | ERA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 0.54 | 1 | — | — | 26% | 5.94 |
| Away | 0.60 | 1 | — | — | 22% | 6.00 |
| vs LHB | 1.13 | 2 | 14% | 27% | 25% | — |
| vs RHB | 0.57 | 0 | 12% | 22% | 23% | — |
HR = home runs allowed (season-to-date). ERA isn’t reported by batter hand, and barrel/FB% aren’t available by home/away — those cells show —.
Pitcher summary · vs RHB
Juan Mejia carries a 0.67 HR/9. He owns a 6.00 ERA on the road. CHC ranks 4th in HR factor for RH hitters.
Victor Vodnik • RHP (COL)COL @ CHC | vs CHC1/2 W–L • 8.00 ERA • 16 Ks • 2.11 WHIP1.3 HR/9 • 10% Barrel • 20% FB • 19% K • 8.00 ERA (H 13.50 / A 4.76)▼ Tougher to homer off lately0.77hittability
Victor Vodnik • RHP (COL)
COL @ CHC | vs CHC
1/2 W–L • 8.00 ERA • 16 Ks • 2.11 WHIP
1.3 HR/9 • 10% Barrel • 20% FB • 19% K • 8.00 ERA (H 13.50 / A 4.76)
▼ Tougher to homer off lately
0.77
hittability
Last 3 games · IP / pitches / HR
▼ Tougher to homer off lately This pitcher is trending the right way — fewer homers.
05/18 0.0 IP · 14 P0 HR
05/17 1.0 IP · 11 P0 HR
05/14 0.2 IP · 16 P0 HR
Pitches to target · go-deep pitches
The pitches he's given up the most homers on — and the bats most likely to punish them.
vs lefty batschange
Most likely to capitalize: Crow-Armstrong 29%, Busch 28%, Happ 27%
vs righty batsno clear target
Most likely to capitalize: Suzuki 26%, Swanson 12%, Bregman 9%
HR hittability vs a league-average hitter · longer + greener = easier to take deep
vs LHB · 1.6 HR/9 · 3 HR in 51 PA
vs RHB · 1.0 HR/9 · 1 HR in 61 PA
Pitch mix · stuff · HR rating · swing-and-miss · contact
Splits · home/away & batter hand
| HR/9 | HR | Barrel | FB% | K% | ERA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.35 | 1 | — | — | 22% | 13.50 |
| Away | 0.79 | 1 | — | — | 15% | 4.76 |
| vs LHB | 1.60 | 3 | 13% | 22% | 22% | — |
| vs RHB | 0.95 | 1 | 10% | 21% | 18% | — |
HR = home runs allowed (season-to-date). ERA isn’t reported by batter hand, and barrel/FB% aren’t available by home/away — those cells show —.
Pitcher summary · vs RHB
Victor Vodnik carries a 1.30 HR/9. CHC ranks 4th in HR factor for RH hitters.
Brennan Bernardino • LHP (COL)COL @ CHC | vs CHC2/3 W–L • 4.18 ERA • 22 Ks • 1.29 WHIP0.7 HR/9 • 12% Barrel • 18% FB • 20% K • 4.18 ERA (H 3.86 / A 4.50)▬ Holding steady0.77hittability
Brennan Bernardino • LHP (COL)
COL @ CHC | vs CHC
2/3 W–L • 4.18 ERA • 22 Ks • 1.29 WHIP
0.7 HR/9 • 12% Barrel • 18% FB • 20% K • 4.18 ERA (H 3.86 / A 4.50)
▬ Holding steady
0.77
hittability
Last 3 games · IP / pitches / HR
▬ Holding steady No big change in his home-run risk lately.
06/12 0.2 IP · 9 P0 HR
06/10 1.0 IP · 15 P0 HR
06/09 1.0 IP · 11 P0 HR
Pitches to target · go-deep pitches
The pitches he's given up the most homers on — and the bats most likely to punish them.
vs lefty batsno clear target
Most likely to capitalize: Crow-Armstrong 29%, Busch 28%, Ballesteros 12%
vs righty batscutter
Most likely to capitalize: Happ 27%, Suzuki 26%, Swanson 12%
HR hittability vs a league-average hitter · longer + greener = easier to take deep
vs LHB · 0.9 HR/9 · 1 HR in 72 PA
vs RHB · 0.9 HR/9 · 1 HR in 71 PA
Pitch mix · stuff · HR rating · swing-and-miss · contact
Splits · home/away & batter hand
| HR/9 | HR | Barrel | FB% | K% | ERA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.29 | 2 | — | — | 20% | 3.86 |
| Away | 0.00 | 0 | — | — | 16% | 4.50 |
| vs LHB | 0.88 | 1 | 14% | 20% | 24% | — |
| vs RHB | 0.89 | 1 | 11% | 20% | 17% | — |
HR = home runs allowed (season-to-date). ERA isn’t reported by batter hand, and barrel/FB% aren’t available by home/away — those cells show —.
Pitcher summary · vs RHB
Brennan Bernardino carries a 0.73 HR/9. CHC ranks 4th in HR factor for RH hitters.
Jaden Hill • RHP (COL)COL @ CHC | vs CHC0/2 W–L • 5.32 ERA • 25 Ks • 1.73 WHIP0.9 HR/9 • 13% Barrel • 21% FB • 23% K • 5.32 ERA (H 5.54 / A 5.06)▲ Easier to take deep lately0.77hittability
Jaden Hill • RHP (COL)
COL @ CHC | vs CHC
0/2 W–L • 5.32 ERA • 25 Ks • 1.73 WHIP
0.9 HR/9 • 13% Barrel • 21% FB • 23% K • 5.32 ERA (H 5.54 / A 5.06)
▲ Easier to take deep lately
0.77
hittability
Last 3 games · IP / pitches / HR
▲ Easier to take deep lately This pitcher is trending toward giving up home runs.
06/13 0.1 IP · 16 P0 HR
06/09 1.0 IP · 14 P0 HR
06/07 0.1 IP · 22 P1 HR
Pitches to target · go-deep pitches
The pitches he's given up the most homers on — and the bats most likely to punish them.
vs lefty bats4-seam
Most likely to capitalize: Crow-Armstrong 29%, Busch 28%, Happ 27%
vs righty batssinker · slider
Most likely to capitalize: Suzuki 26%, Swanson 12%, Bregman 9%
HR hittability vs a league-average hitter · longer + greener = easier to take deep
vs LHB · 0.9 HR/9 · 1 HR in 75 PA
vs RHB · 1.2 HR/9 · 2 HR in 64 PA
Pitch mix · stuff · HR rating · swing-and-miss · contact
Splits · home/away & batter hand
| HR/9 | HR | Barrel | FB% | K% | ERA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.38 | 2 | — | — | 28% | 5.54 |
| Away | 0.00 | 0 | — | — | 15% | 5.06 |
| vs LHB | 0.86 | 1 | 13% | 23% | 22% | — |
| vs RHB | 1.19 | 2 | 14% | 22% | 23% | — |
HR = home runs allowed (season-to-date). ERA isn’t reported by batter hand, and barrel/FB% aren’t available by home/away — those cells show —.
Pitcher summary · vs RHB
Jaden Hill carries a 0.93 HR/9 and gave up 0 in his last outing (1 over his last 3). He owns a 5.06 ERA on the road. CHC ranks 4th in HR factor for RH hitters.
Seth Halvorsen • RHP (COL)COL @ CHC | vs CHC0/0 W–L • 3.31 ERA • 16 Ks • 1.65 WHIP1.0 HR/9 • 17% Barrel • 22% FB • 19% K • 3.31 ERA (H 1.23 / A 5.00)▲ Easier to take deep lately0.73hittability
Seth Halvorsen • RHP (COL)
COL @ CHC | vs CHC
0/0 W–L • 3.31 ERA • 16 Ks • 1.65 WHIP
1.0 HR/9 • 17% Barrel • 22% FB • 19% K • 3.31 ERA (H 1.23 / A 5.00)
▲ Easier to take deep lately
0.73
hittability
Last 3 games · IP / pitches / HR
▲ Easier to take deep lately This pitcher is trending toward giving up home runs.
06/13 0.2 IP · 25 P0 HR
06/12 0.2 IP · 22 P2 HR
06/09 1.0 IP · 14 P0 HR
Not enough data for this view.
HR hittability vs a league-average hitter · longer + greener = easier to take deep
vs LHB · 1.1 HR/9 · 1 HR in 38 PA
vs RHB · 1.0 HR/9 · 1 HR in 55 PA
Pitch mix · stuff · HR rating · swing-and-miss · contact
Splits · home/away & batter hand
| HR/9 | HR | Barrel | FB% | K% | ERA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 0.00 | 0 | — | — | 24% | 1.23 |
| Away | 2.00 | 2 | — | — | 18% | 5.00 |
| vs LHB | 1.14 | 1 | 18% | 24% | 21% | — |
| vs RHB | 0.99 | 1 | 14% | 22% | 19% | — |
HR = home runs allowed (season-to-date). ERA isn’t reported by batter hand, and barrel/FB% aren’t available by home/away — those cells show —.
Pitcher summary · vs RHB
Seth Halvorsen carries a 0.97 HR/9 and gave up 0 in his last outing (2 over his last 3). He owns a 5.00 ERA on the road. CHC ranks 4th in HR factor for RH hitters.
Pick who he’ll face
Matchup vs Michael LorenzenA+
Arms like Michael Lorenzen
Most similar arsenals (velocity, movement, mix): JR Ritchie, Stephen Kolek, Michael McGreevy, Merrill Kelly, Brandon Pfaadt, Slade Cecconi.
vs arms like this (since 2025), 0 HR in 40 PA (0.0% · league ~3%).
Matchup vs Zach AgnosA · ×1.27
Arms like Zach Agnos
Most similar arsenals (velocity, movement, mix): Cole Winn, Luis Severino, Colin Rea, Zack Wheeler, Tomoyuki Sugano, Zack Kelly.
vs arms like this (since 2025), 1 HR in 14 PA (7.1% · league ~3%).
Matchup vs Blas CastañoA · ×1.14
Matchup vs Antonio SenzatelaA · ×1.30
Arms like Antonio Senzatela
Most similar arsenals (velocity, movement, mix): Ryne Nelson, Spencer Strider, Freddy Peralta, Victor Vodnik, Max Scherzer, Didier Fuentes.
vs arms like this (since 2025), 7 HR in 38 PA (18.4% · league ~3%).
Matchup vs Juan MejiaA · ×1.20
Arms like Juan Mejia
Most similar arsenals (velocity, movement, mix): Matt Festa, Connor Phillips, Shohei Ohtani, Ryan Weiss, Kai-Wei Teng, Paul Sewald.
Matchup vs Victor VodnikA · ×1.19
Arms like Victor Vodnik
Most similar arsenals (velocity, movement, mix): Bubba Chandler, Juan Morillo, Luis Gil, Robert Suarez, Antonio Senzatela, Bryan Baker.
vs arms like this (since 2025), 4 HR in 36 PA (11.1% · league ~3%).
Matchup vs Brennan BernardinoA · ×1.17
Arms like Brennan Bernardino
Most similar arsenals (velocity, movement, mix): Joe Mantiply, Justin Bruihl, John King, Ranger Suarez, Aaron Bummer, Brant Hurter.
vs arms like this (since 2025), 0 HR in 31 PA (0.0% · league ~3%).
Matchup vs Jaden HillA · ×1.15
Arms like Jaden Hill
Most similar arsenals (velocity, movement, mix): Rhett Lowder, George Soriano, Alex Lange, Luis Medina, Taylor Clarke, Max Meyer.
vs arms like this (since 2025), 0 HR in 13 PA (0.0% · league ~3%).
Matchup vs Seth HalvorsenA · ×1.24
Arms like Seth Halvorsen
Most similar arsenals (velocity, movement, mix): Ryne Stanek, Didier Fuentes, Jeff Hoffman, Victor Vodnik, Michael Petersen, Joe Boyle.
vs arms like this (since 2025), 0 HR in 15 PA (0.0% · league ~3%).
Zach Neto RLAA AWAY vs Ryne Nelson R · ARIwind 1.00park 1.00brl 17%recent 14% HOT27%MatchupA+274
Zach Neto R
LAA AWAY vs Ryne Nelson R · ARI
wind 1.00park 1.00brl 17%recent 14% HOT
27%
MatchupA
+274
Zach Neto R
LAA AWAY vs Ryne Nelson R · ARI
wind 1.00park 1.00brl 17%recent 14% HOT
27%
Matchup summary · vs Ryne Nelson
Batter Summary 📈 Trending up
Neto has 10 of his 13 HRs off RHP, 38% hard-hit that side. 6 of his 13 HRs have come on the road, slugging .434 there. Neto has been hot against arms like this lately.
Form Last ~3 weeks (recency-weighted): .434 xwOBAcon (lg .372), 14% well-hit (lg 14%), 36% hard-hit · 3 HR in 63 PA. Recent contact quality is beating league — the rating catches the heat before the HR totals show it.
Ranking Reasoning
Strong HR spot.
A homer-prone starter, he's vulnerable to righties (1.8 HR/9) and the park favors RH power.
A homer-prone starter, he's vulnerable to righties (1.8 HR/9) and the park favors RH power.
⚾ vs Nelson (career): 2/3 AB | 1 HR | 1K
AAA ’25–’26: 4 HR / 58 PA · .306 ISO AAA-informed ▲
Pitch by Pitch
Pitch-by-pitch · Nelson throws / Neto hits
Stuff & usage = the arm’s; whiff / contact / EV / barrel / air-ground / HR = Neto’s 2026 vs RHP · green = bat’s edge
4-SeamSt 7760% used
Whiff
21%
Contact
79%
EV
95
Barrel
19%
Air/Gnd
35/16
HR
4
37 BBE
SliderSt 5824% used
Whiff
41%
Contact
59%
EV
86
Barrel
4%
Air/Gnd
22/37
HR
1
27 BBE
CutterSt 948% used
Whiff
24%
Contact
76%
EV
89
Barrel
0%
Air/Gnd
0/22
HR
0
9 BBE
CurveSt 316% used
Whiff
63%
Contact
37%
EV
97
Barrel
0%
Air/Gnd
67/0
HR
0
3 BBE
Pitch-by-pitch · Sewald throws / Neto hits
Stuff & usage = the arm’s; whiff / contact / EV / barrel / air-ground / HR = Neto’s 2026 vs RHP · green = bat’s edge
4-Seam—57% used
Whiff
21%
Contact
79%
EV
95
Barrel
19%
Air/Gnd
35/16
HR
4
37 BBE
Sweeper—43% used
Whiff
43%
Contact
57%
EV
84
Barrel
7%
Air/Gnd
27/13
HR
1
15 BBE
Pitch-by-pitch · Jameson throws / Neto hits
Stuff & usage = the arm’s; whiff / contact / EV / barrel / air-ground / HR = Neto’s 2026 vs RHP · green = bat’s edge
Slider—52% used
Whiff
41%
Contact
59%
EV
86
Barrel
4%
Air/Gnd
22/37
HR
1
27 BBE
Sinker—20% used
Whiff
16%
Contact
84%
EV
90
Barrel
11%
Air/Gnd
22/33
HR
2
27 BBE
Change—15% used
Whiff
35%
Contact
65%
EV
84
Barrel
0%
Air/Gnd
11/67
HR
0
9 BBE
4-Seam—13% used
Whiff
21%
Contact
79%
EV
95
Barrel
19%
Air/Gnd
35/16
HR
4
37 BBE
Pitch-by-pitch · Clarke throws / Neto hits
Stuff & usage = the arm’s; whiff / contact / EV / barrel / air-ground / HR = Neto’s 2026 vs RHP · green = bat’s edge
Slider—52% used
Whiff
41%
Contact
59%
EV
86
Barrel
4%
Air/Gnd
22/37
HR
1
27 BBE
Sinker—30% used
Whiff
16%
Contact
84%
EV
90
Barrel
11%
Air/Gnd
22/33
HR
2
27 BBE
4-Seam—9% used
Whiff
21%
Contact
79%
EV
95
Barrel
19%
Air/Gnd
35/16
HR
4
37 BBE
Change—7% used
Whiff
35%
Contact
65%
EV
84
Barrel
0%
Air/Gnd
11/67
HR
0
9 BBE
Pitch-by-pitch · Thompson throws / Neto hits
Stuff & usage = the arm’s; whiff / contact / EV / barrel / air-ground / HR = Neto’s 2026 vs RHP · green = bat’s edge
Sinker—54% used
Whiff
16%
Contact
84%
EV
90
Barrel
11%
Air/Gnd
22/33
HR
2
27 BBE
Slider—42% used
Whiff
41%
Contact
59%
EV
86
Barrel
4%
Air/Gnd
22/37
HR
1
27 BBE
4-Seam—4% used
Whiff
21%
Contact
79%
EV
95
Barrel
19%
Air/Gnd
35/16
HR
4
37 BBE
Pitch-by-pitch · Loáisiga throws / Neto hits
Stuff & usage = the arm’s; whiff / contact / EV / barrel / air-ground / HR = Neto’s 2026 vs RHP · green = bat’s edge
Sinker—61% used
Whiff
16%
Contact
84%
EV
90
Barrel
11%
Air/Gnd
22/33
HR
2
27 BBE
Curve—26% used
Whiff
63%
Contact
37%
EV
97
Barrel
0%
Air/Gnd
67/0
HR
0
3 BBE
Change—6% used
Whiff
35%
Contact
65%
EV
84
Barrel
0%
Air/Gnd
11/67
HR
0
9 BBE
4-Seam—5% used
Whiff
21%
Contact
79%
EV
95
Barrel
19%
Air/Gnd
35/16
HR
4
37 BBE
Pitch-by-pitch · Ginkel throws / Neto hits
Stuff & usage = the arm’s; whiff / contact / EV / barrel / air-ground / HR = Neto’s 2026 vs RHP · green = bat’s edge
Slider—50% used
Whiff
41%
Contact
59%
EV
86
Barrel
4%
Air/Gnd
22/37
HR
1
27 BBE
4-Seam—39% used
Whiff
21%
Contact
79%
EV
95
Barrel
19%
Air/Gnd
35/16
HR
4
37 BBE
Sinker—10% used
Whiff
16%
Contact
84%
EV
90
Barrel
11%
Air/Gnd
22/33
HR
2
27 BBE
Pitch-by-pitch · Garcia throws / Neto hits
Stuff & usage = the arm’s; whiff / contact / EV / barrel / air-ground / HR = Neto’s 2026 vs LHP · green = bat’s edge
Sinker—56% used
Whiff
10%
Contact
90%
EV
—
Barrel
—
Air/Gnd
—
HR
—
thin 2026
Slider—22% used
Whiff
35%
Contact
65%
EV
95
Barrel
20%
Air/Gnd
60/40
HR
1
5 BBE
Sweeper—20% used
Whiff
75%
Contact
25%
EV
—
Barrel
—
Air/Gnd
—
HR
—
thin 2026
Pitch-by-pitch · Morillo throws / Neto hits
Stuff & usage = the arm’s; whiff / contact / EV / barrel / air-ground / HR = Neto’s 2026 vs RHP · green = bat’s edge
4-Seam—34% used
Whiff
21%
Contact
79%
EV
95
Barrel
19%
Air/Gnd
35/16
HR
4
37 BBE
Sinker—31% used
Whiff
16%
Contact
84%
EV
90
Barrel
11%
Air/Gnd
22/33
HR
2
27 BBE
Slider—30% used
Whiff
41%
Contact
59%
EV
86
Barrel
4%
Air/Gnd
22/37
HR
1
27 BBE
Change—4% used
Whiff
35%
Contact
65%
EV
84
Barrel
0%
Air/Gnd
11/67
HR
0
9 BBE
🎯 Target
Matchup-Fit · barrel alignment vs Ryne Nelson’s arsenal
4-Seam 60% usedbarrels 19% · allows 9% · 4 HR
Slider 24% usedbarrels 4% · allows 6% · 1 HR
Cutter 8% usedbarrels 0% · allows —
Curve 6% usedbarrels — · allows —
Air / Park
Pulls 29% in the air; pull side LF — park ×1.12 → park+wind fits his pull power.
Recent form · last 5
Barrel 0% · EV 88 · 0 HR over his last 5.
Matchup-Fit · barrel alignment vs Paul Sewald’s arsenal
4-Seam 57% usedbarrels 19% · allows 12% · 4 HR
Sweeper 43% usedbarrels 7% · allows 0% · 1 HR
Air / Park
Pulls 29% in the air; pull side LF — park ×1.12 → park+wind fits his pull power.
Recent form · last 5
Barrel 0% · EV 88 · 0 HR over his last 5.
Matchup-Fit · barrel alignment vs Drey Jameson’s arsenal
Slider 52% usedbarrels 4% · allows — · 1 HR
Sinker 20% usedbarrels 11% · allows — · 2 HR
Change 15% usedbarrels 0% · allows —
4-Seam 13% usedbarrels 19% · allows — · 4 HR
Air / Park
Pulls 29% in the air; pull side LF — park ×1.12 → park+wind fits his pull power.
Recent form · last 5
Barrel 0% · EV 88 · 0 HR over his last 5.
Matchup-Fit · barrel alignment vs Taylor Clarke’s arsenal
Slider 52% usedbarrels 4% · allows 12% · 1 HR
Sinker 30% usedbarrels 11% · allows 8% · 2 HR
4-Seam 9% usedbarrels 19% · allows — · 4 HR
Change 7% usedbarrels 0% · allows —
Air / Park
Pulls 29% in the air; pull side LF — park ×1.12 → park+wind fits his pull power.
Recent form · last 5
Barrel 0% · EV 88 · 0 HR over his last 5.
Matchup-Fit · barrel alignment vs Ryan Thompson’s arsenal
Sinker 54% usedbarrels 11% · allows 4% · 2 HR
Slider 42% usedbarrels 4% · allows 4% · 1 HR
Air / Park
Pulls 29% in the air; pull side LF — park ×1.12 → park+wind fits his pull power.
Recent form · last 5
Barrel 0% · EV 88 · 0 HR over his last 5.
Matchup-Fit · barrel alignment vs Jonathan Loáisiga’s arsenal
Sinker 61% usedbarrels 11% · allows 0% · 2 HR
Curve 26% usedbarrels — · allows 8%
Change 6% usedbarrels 0% · allows —
4-Seam 5% usedbarrels 19% · allows — · 4 HR
Air / Park
Pulls 29% in the air; pull side LF — park ×1.12 → park+wind fits his pull power.
Recent form · last 5
Barrel 0% · EV 88 · 0 HR over his last 5.
Matchup-Fit · barrel alignment vs Kevin Ginkel’s arsenal
Slider 50% usedbarrels 4% · allows 6% · 1 HR
4-Seam 39% usedbarrels 19% · allows 0% · 4 HR
Sinker 10% usedbarrels 11% · allows — · 2 HR
Air / Park
Pulls 29% in the air; pull side LF — park ×1.12 → park+wind fits his pull power.
Recent form · last 5
Barrel 0% · EV 88 · 0 HR over his last 5.
Matchup-Fit · barrel alignment vs Brandyn Garcia’s arsenal
Sinker 56% usedbarrels — · allows 0%
Slider 22% usedbarrels 20% · allows — · 1 HR
Sweeper 20% usedbarrels — · allows —
Air / Park
Pulls 29% in the air; pull side LF — park ×1.12 → park+wind fits his pull power.
Recent form · last 5
Barrel 0% · EV 88 · 0 HR over his last 5.
Matchup-Fit · barrel alignment vs Juan Morillo’s arsenal
4-Seam 34% usedbarrels 19% · allows 10% · 4 HR
Sinker 31% usedbarrels 11% · allows 0% · 2 HR
Slider 30% usedbarrels 4% · allows 14% · 1 HR
Air / Park
Pulls 29% in the air; pull side LF — park ×1.12 → park+wind fits his pull power.
Recent form · last 5
Barrel 0% · EV 88 · 0 HR over his last 5.
Matchup Lab
Loading…
Batter Stats
Last 5 games · H/AB · K · GB · FB · barrel · EV · HR/FB · HR
| H/AB | K | GB | FB | BRL | EV | HR/FB | HR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5G | 3/22 | 11 | 40% | 30% | 0% | 88 | 0% | 0 |
| 06/14 | 0/5 | 2 | 33% | 33% | 0% | 79 | 0% | 0 |
| 06/13 | 1/5 | 2 | 33% | 33% | 0% | 96 | 0% | 0 |
| 06/12 | 1/5 | 4 | — | — | — | — | — | 0 |
| 06/10 | 0/4 | 3 | 0% | 100% | 0% | 94 | 0% | 0 |
| 06/09 | 1/3 | 0 | 67% | 0% | 0% | 86 | — | 0 |
Swing & Bat Tracking (602 swings)
bat tracking
Bat speed70.6 mph
Swing length7.0 ft
Attack angle22.0°
contact
swing timing
Early25%
On-time64%
Late11%
miss profile
Over24%
Under16%
Tied-up6%
Centered65%
Flailed30%
Batter power & contact · longer + greener = more HR-likely
vs LHP · 4 HR in 98 PA
vs RHP · 10 HR in 272 PA
Matchup strength · longer + greener = more HR-favorable
matchup strength
supporting
Home / Away HR splits · season-to-date
Home HOME7 HR / 152 PA · 4.6%
Home · .415 SLG
Away AWAY6 HR / 165 PA · 3.6%
Away · .434 SLG
Park fit · spray vs this yard
Pulls 29% of contact in the air; his pull side is LF here — HR factor ×1.12 → park fits his pull power.
Pitcher
Ryne Nelson • RHP (ARI)LAA @ ARI | vs LAA2/5 W–L • 5.19 ERA (66th) • 57 Ks (Tied–84th) • 1.23 WHIP (41st)1.8 HR/9 • 15% Barrel • 31% FB • 20% K • 5.19 ERA (H 5.35 / A 5.02)▲ Easier to take deep lately1.19hittability
Ryne Nelson • RHP (ARI)
LAA @ ARI | vs LAA
2/5 W–L • 5.19 ERA (66th) • 57 Ks (Tied–84th) • 1.23 WHIP (41st)
1.8 HR/9 • 15% Barrel • 31% FB • 20% K • 5.19 ERA (H 5.35 / A 5.02)
▲ Easier to take deep lately
1.19
hittability
Last 3 starts · IP / pitches / HR
▲ Easier to take deep lately This pitcher is trending toward giving up home runs.
06/10 4.0 IP · 82 P2 HR
06/04 7.0 IP · 94 P0 HR
05/30 5.1 IP · 99 P4 HR
Pitches to target · go-deep pitches
The pitches he's given up the most homers on — and the bats most likely to punish them.
vs lefty batsslider · cutter
Most likely to capitalize: Meckler 12%, Walton 8%, Schanuel 7%
vs righty batsslider
Most likely to capitalize: Adell 27%, Neto 27%, Trout 27%
HR hittability vs a league-average hitter · longer + greener = easier to take deep
vs LHB · 1.9 HR/9 · 11 HR in 196 PA
vs RHB · 1.5 HR/9 · 8 HR in 179 PA
Pitch mix · stuff · HR rating · swing-and-miss · contact
spin 12:22
spin 10:02
spin 7:17
spin 11:58
spin 12:22
spin 10:02
spin 7:17
spin 11:58
spin 12:22
spin 10:02
spin 7:17
spin 11:58
Where he’s hittable · xSLG allowed by zone (vs RHB)
Green = he gives up slug there. Tap a band → out/mid/in cells → each pitch’s xSLG + a cyan contact-allowed bar. Cell splits use 2025–26; display only.
Splits · home/away & batter hand
| HR/9 | HR | Barrel | FB% | K% | ERA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.63 | 7 | — | — | 14% | 5.35 |
| Away | 2.39 | 10 | — | — | 21% | 5.02 |
| vs LHB | 1.86 | 11 | 17% | 30% | 18% | — |
| vs RHB | 1.54 | 8 | 13% | 29% | 23% | — |
HR = home runs allowed (season-to-date). ERA isn’t reported by batter hand, and barrel/FB% aren’t available by home/away — those cells show —.
Pitcher summary · vs RHB
Ryne Nelson carries a 1.83 HR/9 and gave up 2 in his last outing (6 over his last 3). Righties have taken him deep 6 of 17 times (1.8 HR/9 to RHB). He owns a 5.35 ERA at home. ARI ranks 8th in HR factor for RH hitters.
Paul Sewald • RHP (ARI)LAA @ ARI | vs LAA1.3 HR/9 • 11% Barrel • 38% FB • 25% K • 3.08 ERA (H 3.38 / A 2.77)◐ Homer-prone on the year, quieter last 31.29hittability
Paul Sewald • RHP (ARI)
LAA @ ARI | vs LAA
1.3 HR/9 • 11% Barrel • 38% FB • 25% K • 3.08 ERA (H 3.38 / A 2.77)
◐ Homer-prone on the year, quieter last 3
1.29
hittability
Last 3 games · IP / pitches / HR
◐ Homer-prone on the year, quieter last 3 Homer-prone over the full season — the quiet recent stretch is a small sample the model discounts.
06/14 1.0 IP · 17 P0 HR
06/12 1.0 IP · 13 P0 HR
06/11 1.0 IP · 16 P0 HR
Pitches to target · go-deep pitches
The pitches he's given up the most homers on — and the bats most likely to punish them.
vs lefty bats4-seam
Most likely to capitalize: Meckler 12%, Walton 8%, Schanuel 7%
vs righty batsno clear target
Most likely to capitalize: Adell 27%, Neto 27%, Trout 27%
HR hittability vs a league-average hitter · longer + greener = easier to take deep
vs LHB · 1.5 HR/9 · 3 HR in 61 PA
vs RHB · 1.0 HR/9 · 1 HR in 54 PA
Pitch mix · stuff · HR rating · swing-and-miss · contact
Splits · home/away & batter hand
| HR/9 | HR | Barrel | FB% | K% | ERA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.02 | 3 | — | — | 33% | 3.38 |
| Away | 0.69 | 1 | — | — | 26% | 2.77 |
| vs LHB | 1.49 | 3 | 12% | 34% | 24% | — |
| vs RHB | 1.00 | 1 | 13% | 29% | 24% | — |
HR = home runs allowed (season-to-date). ERA isn’t reported by batter hand, and barrel/FB% aren’t available by home/away — those cells show —.
Pitcher summary · vs RHB
Paul Sewald carries a 1.28 HR/9. Righties have taken him deep 1 of 4 times (0.8 HR/9 to RHB). ARI ranks 8th in HR factor for RH hitters.
Drey Jameson • RHP (ARI)LAA @ ARI | vs LAA0.8 HR/9 • 13% Barrel • 22% FB • 19% K • 4.91 ERA (H 18.00 / A 0.00)▬ Holding steady0.95hittability
Drey Jameson • RHP (ARI)
LAA @ ARI | vs LAA
0.8 HR/9 • 13% Barrel • 22% FB • 19% K • 4.91 ERA (H 18.00 / A 0.00)
▬ Holding steady
0.95
hittability
Last 3 games · IP / pitches / HR
▬ Holding steady No big change in his home-run risk lately.
06/10 2.2 IP · 28 P0 HR
06/06 1.0 IP · 26 P0 HR
03/12 1.1 IP · 29 P0 HR
Not enough data for this view.
HR hittability vs a league-average hitter · longer + greener = easier to take deep
vs LHB · 1.0 HR/9 · 0 HR in 16 PA
vs RHB · 1.0 HR/9 · 0 HR in 16 PA
Pitch mix · stuff · HR rating · swing-and-miss · contact
Splits · home/away & batter hand
| HR/9 | HR | Barrel | FB% | K% | ERA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 0.00 | 0 | — | — | 14% | 18.00 |
| Away | 0.00 | 0 | — | — | 10% | 0.00 |
| vs LHB | 1.00 | 0 | 13% | 22% | 20% | — |
| vs RHB | 1.00 | 0 | 14% | 24% | 20% | — |
HR = home runs allowed (season-to-date). ERA isn’t reported by batter hand, and barrel/FB% aren’t available by home/away — those cells show —.
Pitcher summary · vs RHB
Drey Jameson carries a 0.78 HR/9. He owns a 18.00 ERA at home. ARI ranks 8th in HR factor for RH hitters.
Taylor Clarke • RHP (ARI)LAA @ ARI | vs LAA0.8 HR/9 • 12% Barrel • 21% FB • 18% K • 2.12 ERA (H 0.61 / A 3.60)◐ Homer-prone on the year, quieter last 30.87hittability
Taylor Clarke • RHP (ARI)
LAA @ ARI | vs LAA
0.8 HR/9 • 12% Barrel • 21% FB • 18% K • 2.12 ERA (H 0.61 / A 3.60)
◐ Homer-prone on the year, quieter last 3
0.87
hittability
Last 3 games · IP / pitches / HR
◐ Homer-prone on the year, quieter last 3 Homer-prone over the full season — the quiet recent stretch is a small sample the model discounts.
06/12 2.0 IP · 36 P0 HR
06/09 0.2 IP · 22 P0 HR
06/07 1.0 IP · 8 P0 HR
Pitches to target · go-deep pitches
The pitches he's given up the most homers on — and the bats most likely to punish them.
vs lefty batsno clear target
Most likely to capitalize: Meckler 12%, Walton 8%, Schanuel 7%
vs righty batssinker
Most likely to capitalize: Adell 27%, Neto 27%, Trout 27%
HR hittability vs a league-average hitter · longer + greener = easier to take deep
vs LHB · 0.6 HR/9 · 0 HR in 68 PA
vs RHB · 1.2 HR/9 · 2 HR in 65 PA
Pitch mix · stuff · HR rating · swing-and-miss · contact
Splits · home/away & batter hand
| HR/9 | HR | Barrel | FB% | K% | ERA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 0.00 | 0 | — | — | 20% | 0.61 |
| Away | 0.60 | 1 | — | — | 8% | 3.60 |
| vs LHB | 0.65 | 0 | 13% | 19% | 20% | — |
| vs RHB | 1.19 | 2 | 12% | 24% | 18% | — |
HR = home runs allowed (season-to-date). ERA isn’t reported by batter hand, and barrel/FB% aren’t available by home/away — those cells show —.
Pitcher summary · vs RHB
Taylor Clarke carries a 0.77 HR/9. ARI ranks 8th in HR factor for RH hitters.
Ryan Thompson • RHP (ARI)LAA @ ARI | vs LAA1.0 HR/9 • 8% Barrel • 19% FB • 17% K • 2.28 ERA (H 5.79 / A 0.00)▼ Tougher to homer off lately0.84hittability
Ryan Thompson • RHP (ARI)
LAA @ ARI | vs LAA
1.0 HR/9 • 8% Barrel • 19% FB • 17% K • 2.28 ERA (H 5.79 / A 0.00)
▼ Tougher to homer off lately
0.84
hittability
Last 3 games · IP / pitches / HR
▼ Tougher to homer off lately This pitcher is trending the right way — fewer homers.
06/12 1.1 IP · 18 P0 HR
06/09 1.0 IP · 9 P0 HR
06/03 1.2 IP · 36 P0 HR
Pitches to target · go-deep pitches
The pitches he's given up the most homers on — and the bats most likely to punish them.
vs lefty bats4-seam · sinker
Most likely to capitalize: Meckler 12%, Walton 8%, Schanuel 7%
vs righty batsslider
Most likely to capitalize: Adell 27%, Neto 27%, Trout 27%
HR hittability vs a league-average hitter · longer + greener = easier to take deep
vs LHB · 1.4 HR/9 · 2 HR in 45 PA
vs RHB · 0.9 HR/9 · 1 HR in 74 PA
Pitch mix · stuff · HR rating · swing-and-miss · contact
Splits · home/away & batter hand
| HR/9 | HR | Barrel | FB% | K% | ERA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.93 | 2 | — | — | 17% | 5.79 |
| Away | 0.00 | 0 | — | — | 14% | 0.00 |
| vs LHB | 1.38 | 2 | 11% | 20% | 16% | — |
| vs RHB | 0.87 | 1 | 9% | 22% | 19% | — |
HR = home runs allowed (season-to-date). ERA isn’t reported by batter hand, and barrel/FB% aren’t available by home/away — those cells show —.
Pitcher summary · vs RHB
Ryan Thompson carries a 1.04 HR/9. He owns a 5.79 ERA at home. ARI ranks 8th in HR factor for RH hitters.
Jonathan Loáisiga • RHP (ARI)LAA @ ARI | vs LAA0.8 HR/9 • 12% Barrel • 19% FB • 19% K • 3.12 ERA (H 2.63 / A 3.65)◐ Homer-prone on the year, quieter last 30.81hittability
Jonathan Loáisiga • RHP (ARI)
LAA @ ARI | vs LAA
0.8 HR/9 • 12% Barrel • 19% FB • 19% K • 3.12 ERA (H 2.63 / A 3.65)
◐ Homer-prone on the year, quieter last 3
0.81
hittability
Last 3 games · IP / pitches / HR
◐ Homer-prone on the year, quieter last 3 Homer-prone over the full season — the quiet recent stretch is a small sample the model discounts.
06/12 1.0 IP · 11 P0 HR
06/10 1.0 IP · 6 P0 HR
06/06 1.0 IP · 17 P0 HR
Pitches to target · go-deep pitches
The pitches he's given up the most homers on — and the bats most likely to punish them.
vs lefty bats4-seam
Most likely to capitalize: Meckler 12%, Walton 8%, Schanuel 7%
vs righty batscurve
Most likely to capitalize: Adell 27%, Neto 27%, Trout 27%
HR hittability vs a league-average hitter · longer + greener = easier to take deep
vs LHB · 0.9 HR/9 · 1 HR in 64 PA
vs RHB · 1.0 HR/9 · 1 HR in 54 PA
Pitch mix · stuff · HR rating · swing-and-miss · contact
Splits · home/away & batter hand
| HR/9 | HR | Barrel | FB% | K% | ERA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 0.00 | 0 | — | — | 14% | 2.63 |
| Away | 0.73 | 1 | — | — | 18% | 3.65 |
| vs LHB | 0.93 | 1 | 14% | 22% | 21% | — |
| vs RHB | 1.00 | 1 | 11% | 20% | 18% | — |
HR = home runs allowed (season-to-date). ERA isn’t reported by batter hand, and barrel/FB% aren’t available by home/away — those cells show —.
Pitcher summary · vs RHB
Jonathan Loáisiga carries a 0.83 HR/9. ARI ranks 8th in HR factor for RH hitters.
Kevin Ginkel • RHP (ARI)LAA @ ARI | vs LAA0.9 HR/9 • 13% Barrel • 22% FB • 26% K • 2.60 ERA (H 3.55 / A 1.80)◐ Homer-prone on the year, quieter last 30.72hittability
Kevin Ginkel • RHP (ARI)
LAA @ ARI | vs LAA
0.9 HR/9 • 13% Barrel • 22% FB • 26% K • 2.60 ERA (H 3.55 / A 1.80)
◐ Homer-prone on the year, quieter last 3
0.72
hittability
Last 3 games · IP / pitches / HR
◐ Homer-prone on the year, quieter last 3 Homer-prone over the full season — the quiet recent stretch is a small sample the model discounts.
06/14 1.0 IP · 28 P0 HR
06/12 1.0 IP · 24 P0 HR
06/09 0.1 IP · 8 P0 HR
Pitches to target · go-deep pitches
The pitches he's given up the most homers on — and the bats most likely to punish them.
vs lefty batsno clear target
Most likely to capitalize: Meckler 12%, Walton 8%, Schanuel 7%
vs righty bats4-seam
Most likely to capitalize: Adell 27%, Neto 27%, Trout 27%
HR hittability vs a league-average hitter · longer + greener = easier to take deep
vs LHB · 0.9 HR/9 · 1 HR in 75 PA
vs RHB · 1.2 HR/9 · 2 HR in 61 PA
Pitch mix · stuff · HR rating · swing-and-miss · contact
Splits · home/away & batter hand
| HR/9 | HR | Barrel | FB% | K% | ERA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 0.71 | 1 | — | — | 24% | 3.55 |
| Away | 0.60 | 1 | — | — | 33% | 1.80 |
| vs LHB | 0.86 | 1 | 12% | 24% | 27% | — |
| vs RHB | 1.22 | 2 | 15% | 21% | 22% | — |
HR = home runs allowed (season-to-date). ERA isn’t reported by batter hand, and barrel/FB% aren’t available by home/away — those cells show —.
Pitcher summary · vs RHB
Kevin Ginkel carries a 0.95 HR/9. ARI ranks 8th in HR factor for RH hitters.
Brandyn Garcia • LHP (ARI)LAA @ ARI | vs LAA0.5 HR/9 • 9% Barrel • 23% FB • 23% K • 3.07 ERA (H 0.00 / A 5.87)▬ Holding steady0.65hittability
Brandyn Garcia • LHP (ARI)
LAA @ ARI | vs LAA
0.5 HR/9 • 9% Barrel • 23% FB • 23% K • 3.07 ERA (H 0.00 / A 5.87)
▬ Holding steady
0.65
hittability
Last 3 games · IP / pitches / HR
▬ Holding steady No big change in his home-run risk lately.
06/11 1.0 IP · 15 P0 HR
06/09 0.2 IP · 21 P0 HR
06/04 1.0 IP · 7 P0 HR
Not enough data for this view.
HR hittability vs a league-average hitter · longer + greener = easier to take deep
vs LHB · 0.8 HR/9 · 0 HR in 34 PA
vs RHB · 0.8 HR/9 · 0 HR in 39 PA
Pitch mix · stuff · HR rating · swing-and-miss · contact
Splits · home/away & batter hand
| HR/9 | HR | Barrel | FB% | K% | ERA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 0.00 | 0 | — | — | 17% | 0.00 |
| Away | 0.00 | 0 | — | — | 27% | 5.87 |
| vs LHB | 0.84 | 0 | 11% | 21% | 21% | — |
| vs RHB | 0.81 | 0 | 12% | 25% | 23% | — |
HR = home runs allowed (season-to-date). ERA isn’t reported by batter hand, and barrel/FB% aren’t available by home/away — those cells show —.
Pitcher summary · vs RHB
Brandyn Garcia carries a 0.54 HR/9. ARI ranks 8th in HR factor for RH hitters.
Juan Morillo • RHP (ARI)LAA @ ARI | vs LAA0.9 HR/9 • 9% Barrel • 17% FB • 28% K • 2.57 ERA (H 1.32 / A 3.77)▲ Easier to take deep lately0.59hittability
Juan Morillo • RHP (ARI)
LAA @ ARI | vs LAA
0.9 HR/9 • 9% Barrel • 17% FB • 28% K • 2.57 ERA (H 1.32 / A 3.77)
▲ Easier to take deep lately
0.59
hittability
Last 3 games · IP / pitches / HR
▲ Easier to take deep lately This pitcher is trending toward giving up home runs.
06/14 1.0 IP · 14 P0 HR
06/13 1.0 IP · 15 P1 HR
06/10 0.1 IP · 5 P0 HR
Pitches to target · go-deep pitches
The pitches he's given up the most homers on — and the bats most likely to punish them.
vs lefty batschange
Most likely to capitalize: Meckler 12%, Walton 8%, Schanuel 7%
vs righty batsslider · 4-seam
Most likely to capitalize: Adell 27%, Neto 27%, Trout 27%
HR hittability vs a league-average hitter · longer + greener = easier to take deep
vs LHB · 0.8 HR/9 · 1 HR in 79 PA
vs RHB · 1.2 HR/9 · 2 HR in 59 PA
Pitch mix · stuff · HR rating · swing-and-miss · contact
Splits · home/away & batter hand
| HR/9 | HR | Barrel | FB% | K% | ERA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 0.00 | 0 | — | — | 33% | 1.32 |
| Away | 1.26 | 2 | — | — | 31% | 3.77 |
| vs LHB | 0.84 | 1 | 10% | 17% | 27% | — |
| vs RHB | 1.24 | 2 | 13% | 23% | 25% | — |
HR = home runs allowed (season-to-date). ERA isn’t reported by batter hand, and barrel/FB% aren’t available by home/away — those cells show —.
Pitcher summary · vs RHB
Juan Morillo carries a 0.94 HR/9 and gave up 0 in his last outing (1 over his last 3). ARI ranks 8th in HR factor for RH hitters.
Pick who he’ll face
Matchup vs Ryne NelsonA
Arms like Ryne Nelson
Most similar arsenals (velocity, movement, mix): Jordan Leasure, Antonio Senzatela, Nick Mears, Bryan Baker, Grant Taylor, Spencer Strider.
vs arms like this (since 2025), 0 HR in 25 PA (0.0% · league ~3%).
Matchup vs Paul SewaldB · ×1.04
Arms like Paul Sewald
Most similar arsenals (velocity, movement, mix): Grant Anderson, Connor Phillips, Juan Mejia, Casey Legumina, Matt Festa, Justin Sterner.
vs arms like this (since 2025), 1 HR in 27 PA (3.7% · league ~3%).
Matchup vs Drey JamesonB · ×1.02
Matchup vs Taylor ClarkeB · ×1.06
Arms like Taylor Clarke
Most similar arsenals (velocity, movement, mix): Alex Lange, Jaden Hill, Osvaldo Bido, Dennis Santana, Bryce Elder, Jesse Scholtens.
vs arms like this (since 2025), 1 HR in 21 PA (4.8% · league ~3%).
Matchup vs Ryan ThompsonA · ×1.27
Arms like Ryan Thompson
Most similar arsenals (velocity, movement, mix): Kevin Kelly, Tyler Rogers, Ryan Walker, Jakob Junis, Trevor McDonald, J.T. Ginn.
vs arms like this (since 2025), 2 HR in 29 PA (6.9% · league ~3%).
Matchup vs Jonathan LoáisigaB · ×1.09
Arms like Jonathan Loáisiga
Most similar arsenals (velocity, movement, mix): Huascar Brazobán, Walbert Ureña, Adrian Houser, Edward Cabrera, Colin Holderman, Jack Kochanowicz.
vs arms like this (since 2025), 0 HR in 24 PA (0.0% · league ~3%).
Matchup vs Kevin GinkelB · ×1.07
Arms like Kevin Ginkel
Most similar arsenals (velocity, movement, mix): Nick Mears, Gus Varland, Andrés Muñoz, Spencer Strider, Jordan Leasure, Dennis Santana.
vs arms like this (since 2025), 0 HR in 24 PA (0.0% · league ~3%).
Matchup vs Brandyn GarciaA · ×1.23
Arms like Brandyn Garcia
Most similar arsenals (velocity, movement, mix): Brant Hurter, JoJo Romero, José A. Ferrer, Gregory Soto, Cristopher Sánchez, Richard Lovelady.
Matchup vs Juan MorilloB · ×1.06
Arms like Juan Morillo
Most similar arsenals (velocity, movement, mix): Will Vest, Brad Keller, Victor Vodnik, Bubba Chandler, Jonathan Bowlan, Jack Leiter.
vs arms like this (since 2025), 0 HR in 21 PA (0.0% · league ~3%).
Mike Trout RLAA AWAY vs Ryne Nelson R · ARIwind 1.00park 1.00brl 21%recent 15%27%MatchupA+275
Mike Trout R
LAA AWAY vs Ryne Nelson R · ARI
wind 1.00park 1.00brl 21%recent 15%
27%
MatchupA
+275
Mike Trout R
LAA AWAY vs Ryne Nelson R · ARI
wind 1.00park 1.00brl 21%recent 15%
27%
Matchup summary · vs Ryne Nelson
Batter Summary ➖ Steady
Trout has 12 of his 15 HRs off RHP, 50% hard-hit that side. 10 of his 15 HRs have come on the road, slugging .528 there.
Form Last ~3 weeks (recency-weighted): .387 xwOBAcon (lg .372), 15% well-hit (lg 14%), 40% hard-hit · 3 HR in 63 PA. Right around league — no real trend either way.
Ranking Reasoning
Strong HR spot.
A homer-prone starter, he's vulnerable to righties (1.8 HR/9) and the park favors RH power.
A homer-prone starter, he's vulnerable to righties (1.8 HR/9) and the park favors RH power.
⚾ vs Nelson (career): 1/4 AB | 0 HR | 2K
Pitch by Pitch
Pitch-by-pitch · Nelson throws / Trout hits
Stuff & usage = the arm’s; whiff / contact / EV / barrel / air-ground / HR = Trout’s 2026 vs RHP · green = bat’s edge
4-SeamSt 7760% used
Whiff
13%
Contact
87%
EV
95
Barrel
8%
Air/Gnd
35/27
HR
2
52 BBE
SliderSt 5824% used
Whiff
46%
Contact
54%
EV
86
Barrel
20%
Air/Gnd
40/20
HR
1
10 BBE
CutterSt 948% used
Whiff
20%
Contact
80%
EV
90
Barrel
20%
Air/Gnd
27/40
HR
3
15 BBE
CurveSt 316% used
Whiff
22%
Contact
78%
EV
86
Barrel
25%
Air/Gnd
75/0
HR
0
4 BBE
Pitch-by-pitch · Sewald throws / Trout hits
Stuff & usage = the arm’s; whiff / contact / EV / barrel / air-ground / HR = Trout’s 2026 vs RHP · green = bat’s edge
4-Seam—57% used
Whiff
13%
Contact
87%
EV
95
Barrel
8%
Air/Gnd
35/27
HR
2
52 BBE
Sweeper—43% used
Whiff
19%
Contact
81%
EV
92
Barrel
33%
Air/Gnd
44/22
HR
3
9 BBE
Pitch-by-pitch · Jameson throws / Trout hits
Stuff & usage = the arm’s; whiff / contact / EV / barrel / air-ground / HR = Trout’s 2026 vs RHP · green = bat’s edge
Slider—52% used
Whiff
46%
Contact
54%
EV
86
Barrel
20%
Air/Gnd
40/20
HR
1
10 BBE
Sinker—20% used
Whiff
12%
Contact
88%
EV
90
Barrel
6%
Air/Gnd
16/58
HR
1
31 BBE
Change—15% used
Whiff
43%
Contact
57%
EV
92
Barrel
33%
Air/Gnd
33/33
HR
1
3 BBE
4-Seam—13% used
Whiff
13%
Contact
87%
EV
95
Barrel
8%
Air/Gnd
35/27
HR
2
52 BBE
Pitch-by-pitch · Clarke throws / Trout hits
Stuff & usage = the arm’s; whiff / contact / EV / barrel / air-ground / HR = Trout’s 2026 vs RHP · green = bat’s edge
Slider—52% used
Whiff
46%
Contact
54%
EV
86
Barrel
20%
Air/Gnd
40/20
HR
1
10 BBE
Sinker—30% used
Whiff
12%
Contact
88%
EV
90
Barrel
6%
Air/Gnd
16/58
HR
1
31 BBE
4-Seam—9% used
Whiff
13%
Contact
87%
EV
95
Barrel
8%
Air/Gnd
35/27
HR
2
52 BBE
Change—7% used
Whiff
43%
Contact
57%
EV
92
Barrel
33%
Air/Gnd
33/33
HR
1
3 BBE
Pitch-by-pitch · Thompson throws / Trout hits
Stuff & usage = the arm’s; whiff / contact / EV / barrel / air-ground / HR = Trout’s 2026 vs RHP · green = bat’s edge
Sinker—54% used
Whiff
12%
Contact
88%
EV
90
Barrel
6%
Air/Gnd
16/58
HR
1
31 BBE
Slider—42% used
Whiff
46%
Contact
54%
EV
86
Barrel
20%
Air/Gnd
40/20
HR
1
10 BBE
4-Seam—4% used
Whiff
13%
Contact
87%
EV
95
Barrel
8%
Air/Gnd
35/27
HR
2
52 BBE
Pitch-by-pitch · Loáisiga throws / Trout hits
Stuff & usage = the arm’s; whiff / contact / EV / barrel / air-ground / HR = Trout’s 2026 vs RHP · green = bat’s edge
Sinker—61% used
Whiff
12%
Contact
88%
EV
90
Barrel
6%
Air/Gnd
16/58
HR
1
31 BBE
Curve—26% used
Whiff
22%
Contact
78%
EV
86
Barrel
25%
Air/Gnd
75/0
HR
0
4 BBE
Change—6% used
Whiff
43%
Contact
57%
EV
92
Barrel
33%
Air/Gnd
33/33
HR
1
3 BBE
4-Seam—5% used
Whiff
13%
Contact
87%
EV
95
Barrel
8%
Air/Gnd
35/27
HR
2
52 BBE
Pitch-by-pitch · Ginkel throws / Trout hits
Stuff & usage = the arm’s; whiff / contact / EV / barrel / air-ground / HR = Trout’s 2026 vs RHP · green = bat’s edge
Slider—50% used
Whiff
46%
Contact
54%
EV
86
Barrel
20%
Air/Gnd
40/20
HR
1
10 BBE
4-Seam—39% used
Whiff
13%
Contact
87%
EV
95
Barrel
8%
Air/Gnd
35/27
HR
2
52 BBE
Sinker—10% used
Whiff
12%
Contact
88%
EV
90
Barrel
6%
Air/Gnd
16/58
HR
1
31 BBE
Pitch-by-pitch · Garcia throws / Trout hits
Stuff & usage = the arm’s; whiff / contact / EV / barrel / air-ground / HR = Trout’s 2026 vs LHP · green = bat’s edge
Sinker—56% used
Whiff
0%
Contact
100%
EV
94
Barrel
0%
Air/Gnd
33/33
HR
0
3 BBE
Slider—22% used
Whiff
29%
Contact
71%
EV
—
Barrel
—
Air/Gnd
—
HR
—
thin 2026
Sweeper—20% used
Whiff
—
Contact
—
EV
—
Barrel
—
Air/Gnd
—
HR
—
thin 2026
Pitch-by-pitch · Morillo throws / Trout hits
Stuff & usage = the arm’s; whiff / contact / EV / barrel / air-ground / HR = Trout’s 2026 vs RHP · green = bat’s edge
4-Seam—34% used
Whiff
13%
Contact
87%
EV
95
Barrel
8%
Air/Gnd
35/27
HR
2
52 BBE
Sinker—31% used
Whiff
12%
Contact
88%
EV
90
Barrel
6%
Air/Gnd
16/58
HR
1
31 BBE
Slider—30% used
Whiff
46%
Contact
54%
EV
86
Barrel
20%
Air/Gnd
40/20
HR
1
10 BBE
Change—4% used
Whiff
43%
Contact
57%
EV
92
Barrel
33%
Air/Gnd
33/33
HR
1
3 BBE
🎯 Target
Matchup-Fit · barrel alignment vs Ryne Nelson’s arsenal
4-Seam 60% usedbarrels 8% · allows 9% · 2 HR
Slider 24% usedbarrels 20% · allows 6% · 1 HR
Cutter 8% usedbarrels 20% · allows — · 3 HR
Curve 6% usedbarrels 25% · allows —
Air / Park
Pulls 22% in the air; pull side LF — park ×1.12 → park+wind fits his pull power.
Recent form · last 5
Barrel 0% · EV 89 · 1 HR over his last 5.
Matchup-Fit · barrel alignment vs Paul Sewald’s arsenal
4-Seam 57% usedbarrels 8% · allows 12% · 2 HR
Sweeper 43% usedbarrels 33% · allows 0% · 3 HR
Air / Park
Pulls 22% in the air; pull side LF — park ×1.12 → park+wind fits his pull power.
Recent form · last 5
Barrel 0% · EV 89 · 1 HR over his last 5.
Matchup-Fit · barrel alignment vs Drey Jameson’s arsenal
Slider 52% usedbarrels 20% · allows — · 1 HR
Sinker 20% usedbarrels 6% · allows — · 1 HR
Change 15% usedbarrels — · allows — · 1 HR
4-Seam 13% usedbarrels 8% · allows — · 2 HR
Air / Park
Pulls 22% in the air; pull side LF — park ×1.12 → park+wind fits his pull power.
Recent form · last 5
Barrel 0% · EV 89 · 1 HR over his last 5.
Matchup-Fit · barrel alignment vs Taylor Clarke’s arsenal
Slider 52% usedbarrels 20% · allows 12% · 1 HR
Sinker 30% usedbarrels 6% · allows 8% · 1 HR
4-Seam 9% usedbarrels 8% · allows — · 2 HR
Change 7% usedbarrels — · allows — · 1 HR
Air / Park
Pulls 22% in the air; pull side LF — park ×1.12 → park+wind fits his pull power.
Recent form · last 5
Barrel 0% · EV 89 · 1 HR over his last 5.
Matchup-Fit · barrel alignment vs Ryan Thompson’s arsenal
Sinker 54% usedbarrels 6% · allows 4% · 1 HR
Slider 42% usedbarrels 20% · allows 4% · 1 HR
Air / Park
Pulls 22% in the air; pull side LF — park ×1.12 → park+wind fits his pull power.
Recent form · last 5
Barrel 0% · EV 89 · 1 HR over his last 5.
Matchup-Fit · barrel alignment vs Jonathan Loáisiga’s arsenal
Sinker 61% usedbarrels 6% · allows 0% · 1 HR
Curve 26% usedbarrels 25% · allows 8%
Change 6% usedbarrels — · allows — · 1 HR
4-Seam 5% usedbarrels 8% · allows — · 2 HR
Air / Park
Pulls 22% in the air; pull side LF — park ×1.12 → park+wind fits his pull power.
Recent form · last 5
Barrel 0% · EV 89 · 1 HR over his last 5.
Matchup-Fit · barrel alignment vs Kevin Ginkel’s arsenal
Slider 50% usedbarrels 20% · allows 6% · 1 HR
4-Seam 39% usedbarrels 8% · allows 0% · 2 HR
Sinker 10% usedbarrels 6% · allows — · 1 HR
Air / Park
Pulls 22% in the air; pull side LF — park ×1.12 → park+wind fits his pull power.
Recent form · last 5
Barrel 0% · EV 89 · 1 HR over his last 5.
Matchup-Fit · barrel alignment vs Brandyn Garcia’s arsenal
Sinker 56% usedbarrels — · allows 0%
Slider 22% usedbarrels — · allows —
Sweeper 20% usedbarrels — · allows —
Air / Park
Pulls 22% in the air; pull side LF — park ×1.12 → park+wind fits his pull power.
Recent form · last 5
Barrel 0% · EV 89 · 1 HR over his last 5.
Matchup-Fit · barrel alignment vs Juan Morillo’s arsenal
4-Seam 34% usedbarrels 8% · allows 10% · 2 HR
Sinker 31% usedbarrels 6% · allows 0% · 1 HR
Slider 30% usedbarrels 20% · allows 14% · 1 HR
Air / Park
Pulls 22% in the air; pull side LF — park ×1.12 → park+wind fits his pull power.
Recent form · last 5
Barrel 0% · EV 89 · 1 HR over his last 5.
Matchup Lab
Loading…
Batter Stats
Last 5 games · H/AB · K · GB · FB · barrel · EV · HR/FB · HR
| H/AB | K | GB | FB | BRL | EV | HR/FB | HR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5G | 5/20 | 7 | 38% | 15% | 0% | 89 | 50% | 1 |
| 06/14 | 1/5 | 2 | 33% | 33% | 0% | 80 | 0% | 0 |
| 06/13 | 1/5 | 2 | 33% | 0% | 0% | 81 | — | 0 |
| 06/12 | 1/3 | 1 | 0% | 50% | 0% | 90 | 0% | 0 |
| 06/10 | 1/3 | 1 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 104 | — | 1 |
| 06/09 | 1/4 | 1 | 100% | 0% | 0% | 95 | — | 0 |
Swing & Bat Tracking (514 swings)
bat tracking
Bat speed75.1 mph
Swing length7.5 ft
Attack angle7.7°
contact
swing timing
Early17%
On-time68%
Late15%
miss profile
Over9%
Under37%
Tied-up11%
Centered71%
Flailed18%
Batter power & contact · longer + greener = more HR-likely
vs LHP · 3 HR in 99 PA
vs RHP · 12 HR in 270 PA
Matchup strength · longer + greener = more HR-favorable
matchup strength
supporting
Home / Away HR splits · season-to-date
Home HOME5 HR / 160 PA · 3.1%
Home · .364 SLG
Away AWAY10 HR / 162 PA · 6.2%
Away · .528 SLG
Park fit · spray vs this yard
Pulls 22% of contact in the air; his pull side is LF here — HR factor ×1.12 → park fits his pull power.
Pitcher
Ryne Nelson • RHP (ARI)LAA @ ARI | vs LAA2/5 W–L • 5.19 ERA (66th) • 57 Ks (Tied–84th) • 1.23 WHIP (41st)1.8 HR/9 • 15% Barrel • 31% FB • 20% K • 5.19 ERA (H 5.35 / A 5.02)▲ Easier to take deep lately1.19hittability
Ryne Nelson • RHP (ARI)
LAA @ ARI | vs LAA
2/5 W–L • 5.19 ERA (66th) • 57 Ks (Tied–84th) • 1.23 WHIP (41st)
1.8 HR/9 • 15% Barrel • 31% FB • 20% K • 5.19 ERA (H 5.35 / A 5.02)
▲ Easier to take deep lately
1.19
hittability
Last 3 starts · IP / pitches / HR
▲ Easier to take deep lately This pitcher is trending toward giving up home runs.
06/10 4.0 IP · 82 P2 HR
06/04 7.0 IP · 94 P0 HR
05/30 5.1 IP · 99 P4 HR
Pitches to target · go-deep pitches
The pitches he's given up the most homers on — and the bats most likely to punish them.
vs lefty batsslider · cutter
Most likely to capitalize: Meckler 12%, Walton 8%, Schanuel 7%
vs righty batsslider
Most likely to capitalize: Adell 27%, Neto 27%, Trout 27%
HR hittability vs a league-average hitter · longer + greener = easier to take deep
vs LHB · 1.9 HR/9 · 11 HR in 196 PA
vs RHB · 1.5 HR/9 · 8 HR in 179 PA
Pitch mix · stuff · HR rating · swing-and-miss · contact
spin 12:22
spin 10:02
spin 7:17
spin 11:58
spin 12:22
spin 10:02
spin 7:17
spin 11:58
spin 12:22
spin 10:02
spin 7:17
spin 11:58
Where he’s hittable · xSLG allowed by zone (vs RHB)
Green = he gives up slug there. Tap a band → out/mid/in cells → each pitch’s xSLG + a cyan contact-allowed bar. Cell splits use 2025–26; display only.
Splits · home/away & batter hand
| HR/9 | HR | Barrel | FB% | K% | ERA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.63 | 7 | — | — | 14% | 5.35 |
| Away | 2.39 | 10 | — | — | 21% | 5.02 |
| vs LHB | 1.86 | 11 | 17% | 30% | 18% | — |
| vs RHB | 1.54 | 8 | 13% | 29% | 23% | — |
HR = home runs allowed (season-to-date). ERA isn’t reported by batter hand, and barrel/FB% aren’t available by home/away — those cells show —.
Pitcher summary · vs RHB
Ryne Nelson carries a 1.83 HR/9 and gave up 2 in his last outing (6 over his last 3). Righties have taken him deep 6 of 17 times (1.8 HR/9 to RHB). He owns a 5.35 ERA at home. ARI ranks 8th in HR factor for RH hitters.
Paul Sewald • RHP (ARI)LAA @ ARI | vs LAA1.3 HR/9 • 11% Barrel • 38% FB • 25% K • 3.08 ERA (H 3.38 / A 2.77)◐ Homer-prone on the year, quieter last 31.29hittability
Paul Sewald • RHP (ARI)
LAA @ ARI | vs LAA
1.3 HR/9 • 11% Barrel • 38% FB • 25% K • 3.08 ERA (H 3.38 / A 2.77)
◐ Homer-prone on the year, quieter last 3
1.29
hittability
Last 3 games · IP / pitches / HR
◐ Homer-prone on the year, quieter last 3 Homer-prone over the full season — the quiet recent stretch is a small sample the model discounts.
06/14 1.0 IP · 17 P0 HR
06/12 1.0 IP · 13 P0 HR
06/11 1.0 IP · 16 P0 HR
Pitches to target · go-deep pitches
The pitches he's given up the most homers on — and the bats most likely to punish them.
vs lefty bats4-seam
Most likely to capitalize: Meckler 12%, Walton 8%, Schanuel 7%
vs righty batsno clear target
Most likely to capitalize: Adell 27%, Neto 27%, Trout 27%
HR hittability vs a league-average hitter · longer + greener = easier to take deep
vs LHB · 1.5 HR/9 · 3 HR in 61 PA
vs RHB · 1.0 HR/9 · 1 HR in 54 PA
Pitch mix · stuff · HR rating · swing-and-miss · contact
Splits · home/away & batter hand
| HR/9 | HR | Barrel | FB% | K% | ERA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.02 | 3 | — | — | 33% | 3.38 |
| Away | 0.69 | 1 | — | — | 26% | 2.77 |
| vs LHB | 1.49 | 3 | 12% | 34% | 24% | — |
| vs RHB | 1.00 | 1 | 13% | 29% | 24% | — |
HR = home runs allowed (season-to-date). ERA isn’t reported by batter hand, and barrel/FB% aren’t available by home/away — those cells show —.
Pitcher summary · vs RHB
Paul Sewald carries a 1.28 HR/9. Righties have taken him deep 1 of 4 times (0.8 HR/9 to RHB). ARI ranks 8th in HR factor for RH hitters.
Drey Jameson • RHP (ARI)LAA @ ARI | vs LAA0.8 HR/9 • 13% Barrel • 22% FB • 19% K • 4.91 ERA (H 18.00 / A 0.00)▬ Holding steady0.95hittability
Drey Jameson • RHP (ARI)
LAA @ ARI | vs LAA
0.8 HR/9 • 13% Barrel • 22% FB • 19% K • 4.91 ERA (H 18.00 / A 0.00)
▬ Holding steady
0.95
hittability
Last 3 games · IP / pitches / HR
▬ Holding steady No big change in his home-run risk lately.
06/10 2.2 IP · 28 P0 HR
06/06 1.0 IP · 26 P0 HR
03/12 1.1 IP · 29 P0 HR
Not enough data for this view.
HR hittability vs a league-average hitter · longer + greener = easier to take deep
vs LHB · 1.0 HR/9 · 0 HR in 16 PA
vs RHB · 1.0 HR/9 · 0 HR in 16 PA
Pitch mix · stuff · HR rating · swing-and-miss · contact
Splits · home/away & batter hand
| HR/9 | HR | Barrel | FB% | K% | ERA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 0.00 | 0 | — | — | 14% | 18.00 |
| Away | 0.00 | 0 | — | — | 10% | 0.00 |
| vs LHB | 1.00 | 0 | 13% | 22% | 20% | — |
| vs RHB | 1.00 | 0 | 14% | 24% | 20% | — |
HR = home runs allowed (season-to-date). ERA isn’t reported by batter hand, and barrel/FB% aren’t available by home/away — those cells show —.
Pitcher summary · vs RHB
Drey Jameson carries a 0.78 HR/9. He owns a 18.00 ERA at home. ARI ranks 8th in HR factor for RH hitters.
Taylor Clarke • RHP (ARI)LAA @ ARI | vs LAA0.8 HR/9 • 12% Barrel • 21% FB • 18% K • 2.12 ERA (H 0.61 / A 3.60)◐ Homer-prone on the year, quieter last 30.87hittability
Taylor Clarke • RHP (ARI)
LAA @ ARI | vs LAA
0.8 HR/9 • 12% Barrel • 21% FB • 18% K • 2.12 ERA (H 0.61 / A 3.60)
◐ Homer-prone on the year, quieter last 3
0.87
hittability
Last 3 games · IP / pitches / HR
◐ Homer-prone on the year, quieter last 3 Homer-prone over the full season — the quiet recent stretch is a small sample the model discounts.
06/12 2.0 IP · 36 P0 HR
06/09 0.2 IP · 22 P0 HR
06/07 1.0 IP · 8 P0 HR
Pitches to target · go-deep pitches
The pitches he's given up the most homers on — and the bats most likely to punish them.
vs lefty batsno clear target
Most likely to capitalize: Meckler 12%, Walton 8%, Schanuel 7%
vs righty batssinker
Most likely to capitalize: Adell 27%, Neto 27%, Trout 27%
HR hittability vs a league-average hitter · longer + greener = easier to take deep
vs LHB · 0.6 HR/9 · 0 HR in 68 PA
vs RHB · 1.2 HR/9 · 2 HR in 65 PA
Pitch mix · stuff · HR rating · swing-and-miss · contact
Splits · home/away & batter hand
| HR/9 | HR | Barrel | FB% | K% | ERA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 0.00 | 0 | — | — | 20% | 0.61 |
| Away | 0.60 | 1 | — | — | 8% | 3.60 |
| vs LHB | 0.65 | 0 | 13% | 19% | 20% | — |
| vs RHB | 1.19 | 2 | 12% | 24% | 18% | — |
HR = home runs allowed (season-to-date). ERA isn’t reported by batter hand, and barrel/FB% aren’t available by home/away — those cells show —.
Pitcher summary · vs RHB
Taylor Clarke carries a 0.77 HR/9. ARI ranks 8th in HR factor for RH hitters.
Ryan Thompson • RHP (ARI)LAA @ ARI | vs LAA1.0 HR/9 • 8% Barrel • 19% FB • 17% K • 2.28 ERA (H 5.79 / A 0.00)▼ Tougher to homer off lately0.84hittability
Ryan Thompson • RHP (ARI)
LAA @ ARI | vs LAA
1.0 HR/9 • 8% Barrel • 19% FB • 17% K • 2.28 ERA (H 5.79 / A 0.00)
▼ Tougher to homer off lately
0.84
hittability
Last 3 games · IP / pitches / HR
▼ Tougher to homer off lately This pitcher is trending the right way — fewer homers.
06/12 1.1 IP · 18 P0 HR
06/09 1.0 IP · 9 P0 HR
06/03 1.2 IP · 36 P0 HR
Pitches to target · go-deep pitches
The pitches he's given up the most homers on — and the bats most likely to punish them.
vs lefty bats4-seam · sinker
Most likely to capitalize: Meckler 12%, Walton 8%, Schanuel 7%
vs righty batsslider
Most likely to capitalize: Adell 27%, Neto 27%, Trout 27%
HR hittability vs a league-average hitter · longer + greener = easier to take deep
vs LHB · 1.4 HR/9 · 2 HR in 45 PA
vs RHB · 0.9 HR/9 · 1 HR in 74 PA
Pitch mix · stuff · HR rating · swing-and-miss · contact
Splits · home/away & batter hand
| HR/9 | HR | Barrel | FB% | K% | ERA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.93 | 2 | — | — | 17% | 5.79 |
| Away | 0.00 | 0 | — | — | 14% | 0.00 |
| vs LHB | 1.38 | 2 | 11% | 20% | 16% | — |
| vs RHB | 0.87 | 1 | 9% | 22% | 19% | — |
HR = home runs allowed (season-to-date). ERA isn’t reported by batter hand, and barrel/FB% aren’t available by home/away — those cells show —.
Pitcher summary · vs RHB
Ryan Thompson carries a 1.04 HR/9. He owns a 5.79 ERA at home. ARI ranks 8th in HR factor for RH hitters.
Jonathan Loáisiga • RHP (ARI)LAA @ ARI | vs LAA0.8 HR/9 • 12% Barrel • 19% FB • 19% K • 3.12 ERA (H 2.63 / A 3.65)◐ Homer-prone on the year, quieter last 30.81hittability
Jonathan Loáisiga • RHP (ARI)
LAA @ ARI | vs LAA
0.8 HR/9 • 12% Barrel • 19% FB • 19% K • 3.12 ERA (H 2.63 / A 3.65)
◐ Homer-prone on the year, quieter last 3
0.81
hittability
Last 3 games · IP / pitches / HR
◐ Homer-prone on the year, quieter last 3 Homer-prone over the full season — the quiet recent stretch is a small sample the model discounts.
06/12 1.0 IP · 11 P0 HR
06/10 1.0 IP · 6 P0 HR
06/06 1.0 IP · 17 P0 HR
Pitches to target · go-deep pitches
The pitches he's given up the most homers on — and the bats most likely to punish them.
vs lefty bats4-seam
Most likely to capitalize: Meckler 12%, Walton 8%, Schanuel 7%
vs righty batscurve
Most likely to capitalize: Adell 27%, Neto 27%, Trout 27%
HR hittability vs a league-average hitter · longer + greener = easier to take deep
vs LHB · 0.9 HR/9 · 1 HR in 64 PA
vs RHB · 1.0 HR/9 · 1 HR in 54 PA
Pitch mix · stuff · HR rating · swing-and-miss · contact
Splits · home/away & batter hand
| HR/9 | HR | Barrel | FB% | K% | ERA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 0.00 | 0 | — | — | 14% | 2.63 |
| Away | 0.73 | 1 | — | — | 18% | 3.65 |
| vs LHB | 0.93 | 1 | 14% | 22% | 21% | — |
| vs RHB | 1.00 | 1 | 11% | 20% | 18% | — |
HR = home runs allowed (season-to-date). ERA isn’t reported by batter hand, and barrel/FB% aren’t available by home/away — those cells show —.
Pitcher summary · vs RHB
Jonathan Loáisiga carries a 0.83 HR/9. ARI ranks 8th in HR factor for RH hitters.
Kevin Ginkel • RHP (ARI)LAA @ ARI | vs LAA0.9 HR/9 • 13% Barrel • 22% FB • 26% K • 2.60 ERA (H 3.55 / A 1.80)◐ Homer-prone on the year, quieter last 30.72hittability
Kevin Ginkel • RHP (ARI)
LAA @ ARI | vs LAA
0.9 HR/9 • 13% Barrel • 22% FB • 26% K • 2.60 ERA (H 3.55 / A 1.80)
◐ Homer-prone on the year, quieter last 3
0.72
hittability
Last 3 games · IP / pitches / HR
◐ Homer-prone on the year, quieter last 3 Homer-prone over the full season — the quiet recent stretch is a small sample the model discounts.
06/14 1.0 IP · 28 P0 HR
06/12 1.0 IP · 24 P0 HR
06/09 0.1 IP · 8 P0 HR
Pitches to target · go-deep pitches
The pitches he's given up the most homers on — and the bats most likely to punish them.
vs lefty batsno clear target
Most likely to capitalize: Meckler 12%, Walton 8%, Schanuel 7%
vs righty bats4-seam
Most likely to capitalize: Adell 27%, Neto 27%, Trout 27%
HR hittability vs a league-average hitter · longer + greener = easier to take deep
vs LHB · 0.9 HR/9 · 1 HR in 75 PA
vs RHB · 1.2 HR/9 · 2 HR in 61 PA
Pitch mix · stuff · HR rating · swing-and-miss · contact
Splits · home/away & batter hand
| HR/9 | HR | Barrel | FB% | K% | ERA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 0.71 | 1 | — | — | 24% | 3.55 |
| Away | 0.60 | 1 | — | — | 33% | 1.80 |
| vs LHB | 0.86 | 1 | 12% | 24% | 27% | — |
| vs RHB | 1.22 | 2 | 15% | 21% | 22% | — |
HR = home runs allowed (season-to-date). ERA isn’t reported by batter hand, and barrel/FB% aren’t available by home/away — those cells show —.
Pitcher summary · vs RHB
Kevin Ginkel carries a 0.95 HR/9. ARI ranks 8th in HR factor for RH hitters.
Brandyn Garcia • LHP (ARI)LAA @ ARI | vs LAA0.5 HR/9 • 9% Barrel • 23% FB • 23% K • 3.07 ERA (H 0.00 / A 5.87)▬ Holding steady0.65hittability
Brandyn Garcia • LHP (ARI)
LAA @ ARI | vs LAA
0.5 HR/9 • 9% Barrel • 23% FB • 23% K • 3.07 ERA (H 0.00 / A 5.87)
▬ Holding steady
0.65
hittability
Last 3 games · IP / pitches / HR
▬ Holding steady No big change in his home-run risk lately.
06/11 1.0 IP · 15 P0 HR
06/09 0.2 IP · 21 P0 HR
06/04 1.0 IP · 7 P0 HR
Not enough data for this view.
HR hittability vs a league-average hitter · longer + greener = easier to take deep
vs LHB · 0.8 HR/9 · 0 HR in 34 PA
vs RHB · 0.8 HR/9 · 0 HR in 39 PA
Pitch mix · stuff · HR rating · swing-and-miss · contact
Splits · home/away & batter hand
| HR/9 | HR | Barrel | FB% | K% | ERA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 0.00 | 0 | — | — | 17% | 0.00 |
| Away | 0.00 | 0 | — | — | 27% | 5.87 |
| vs LHB | 0.84 | 0 | 11% | 21% | 21% | — |
| vs RHB | 0.81 | 0 | 12% | 25% | 23% | — |
HR = home runs allowed (season-to-date). ERA isn’t reported by batter hand, and barrel/FB% aren’t available by home/away — those cells show —.
Pitcher summary · vs RHB
Brandyn Garcia carries a 0.54 HR/9. ARI ranks 8th in HR factor for RH hitters.
Juan Morillo • RHP (ARI)LAA @ ARI | vs LAA0.9 HR/9 • 9% Barrel • 17% FB • 28% K • 2.57 ERA (H 1.32 / A 3.77)▲ Easier to take deep lately0.59hittability
Juan Morillo • RHP (ARI)
LAA @ ARI | vs LAA
0.9 HR/9 • 9% Barrel • 17% FB • 28% K • 2.57 ERA (H 1.32 / A 3.77)
▲ Easier to take deep lately
0.59
hittability
Last 3 games · IP / pitches / HR
▲ Easier to take deep lately This pitcher is trending toward giving up home runs.
06/14 1.0 IP · 14 P0 HR
06/13 1.0 IP · 15 P1 HR
06/10 0.1 IP · 5 P0 HR
Pitches to target · go-deep pitches
The pitches he's given up the most homers on — and the bats most likely to punish them.
vs lefty batschange
Most likely to capitalize: Meckler 12%, Walton 8%, Schanuel 7%
vs righty batsslider · 4-seam
Most likely to capitalize: Adell 27%, Neto 27%, Trout 27%
HR hittability vs a league-average hitter · longer + greener = easier to take deep
vs LHB · 0.8 HR/9 · 1 HR in 79 PA
vs RHB · 1.2 HR/9 · 2 HR in 59 PA
Pitch mix · stuff · HR rating · swing-and-miss · contact
Splits · home/away & batter hand
| HR/9 | HR | Barrel | FB% | K% | ERA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 0.00 | 0 | — | — | 33% | 1.32 |
| Away | 1.26 | 2 | — | — | 31% | 3.77 |
| vs LHB | 0.84 | 1 | 10% | 17% | 27% | — |
| vs RHB | 1.24 | 2 | 13% | 23% | 25% | — |
HR = home runs allowed (season-to-date). ERA isn’t reported by batter hand, and barrel/FB% aren’t available by home/away — those cells show —.
Pitcher summary · vs RHB
Juan Morillo carries a 0.94 HR/9 and gave up 0 in his last outing (1 over his last 3). ARI ranks 8th in HR factor for RH hitters.
Pick who he’ll face
Matchup vs Ryne NelsonA
Arms like Ryne Nelson
Most similar arsenals (velocity, movement, mix): Jordan Leasure, Antonio Senzatela, Nick Mears, Bryan Baker, Grant Taylor, Spencer Strider.
vs arms like this (since 2025), 0 HR in 22 PA (0.0% · league ~3%).
Matchup vs Paul SewaldA · ×1.45
Arms like Paul Sewald
Most similar arsenals (velocity, movement, mix): Grant Anderson, Connor Phillips, Juan Mejia, Casey Legumina, Matt Festa, Justin Sterner.
vs arms like this (since 2025), 2 HR in 26 PA (7.7% · league ~3%).
Matchup vs Drey JamesonA · ×1.38
Matchup vs Taylor ClarkeA · ×1.35
Arms like Taylor Clarke
Most similar arsenals (velocity, movement, mix): Alex Lange, Jaden Hill, Osvaldo Bido, Dennis Santana, Bryce Elder, Jesse Scholtens.
vs arms like this (since 2025), 1 HR in 23 PA (4.3% · league ~3%).
Matchup vs Ryan ThompsonA · ×1.36
Arms like Ryan Thompson
Most similar arsenals (velocity, movement, mix): Kevin Kelly, Tyler Rogers, Ryan Walker, Jakob Junis, Trevor McDonald, J.T. Ginn.
vs arms like this (since 2025), 1 HR in 26 PA (3.8% · league ~3%).
Matchup vs Jonathan LoáisigaA · ×1.26
Arms like Jonathan Loáisiga
Most similar arsenals (velocity, movement, mix): Huascar Brazobán, Walbert Ureña, Adrian Houser, Edward Cabrera, Colin Holderman, Jack Kochanowicz.
vs arms like this (since 2025), 1 HR in 18 PA (5.6% · league ~3%).
Matchup vs Kevin GinkelA · ×1.44
Arms like Kevin Ginkel
Most similar arsenals (velocity, movement, mix): Nick Mears, Gus Varland, Andrés Muñoz, Spencer Strider, Jordan Leasure, Dennis Santana.
vs arms like this (since 2025), 0 HR in 21 PA (0.0% · league ~3%).
Matchup vs Brandyn GarciaA · ×1.40
Arms like Brandyn Garcia
Most similar arsenals (velocity, movement, mix): Brant Hurter, JoJo Romero, José A. Ferrer, Gregory Soto, Cristopher Sánchez, Richard Lovelady.
Matchup vs Juan MorilloA · ×1.35
Arms like Juan Morillo
Most similar arsenals (velocity, movement, mix): Will Vest, Brad Keller, Victor Vodnik, Bubba Chandler, Jonathan Bowlan, Jack Leiter.
vs arms like this (since 2025), 0 HR in 14 PA (0.0% · league ~3%).
Seiya Suzuki RCHC HOME vs Michael Lorenzen R · CHCwind 1.06park 0.97brl 19%recent 10%26%MatchupA++278
Seiya Suzuki R
CHC HOME vs Michael Lorenzen R · CHC
wind 1.06park 0.97brl 19%recent 10%
26%
MatchupA+
+278
Seiya Suzuki R
CHC HOME vs Michael Lorenzen R · CHC
wind 1.06park 0.97brl 19%recent 10%
26%
Matchup summary · vs Michael Lorenzen
Batter Summary 📉 Cooling off
Suzuki has 8 of his 10 HRs off RHP, 41% hard-hit that side. 6 of his 10 HRs have come at home, slugging .474 there.
Form Last ~3 weeks (recency-weighted): .281 xwOBAcon (lg .372), 10% well-hit (lg 14%), 44% hard-hit · 0 HR in 56 PA. Recent contact quality has slipped below league — a real cool-down, not just bad luck.
Ranking Reasoning
Strong HR spot.
A homer-prone starter, the park favors RH power and his fastball is flattening.
A homer-prone starter, the park favors RH power and his fastball is flattening.
🏟️ Homered here 26× at this park (since ’25)
⚾ vs Lorenzen (career): 0/2 AB | 0 HR | 2K
Pitch by Pitch
Pitch-by-pitch · Lorenzen throws / Suzuki hits
Stuff & usage = the arm’s; whiff / contact / EV / barrel / air-ground / HR = Suzuki’s 2026 vs RHP · green = bat’s edge
SinkerSt 4224% used
Whiff
16%
Contact
84%
EV
95
Barrel
11%
Air/Gnd
22/39
HR
3
18 BBE
4-SeamSt 4617% used
Whiff
17%
Contact
83%
EV
92
Barrel
4%
Air/Gnd
26/22
HR
2
27 BBE
SweeperSt 415% used
Whiff
40%
Contact
60%
EV
90
Barrel
12%
Air/Gnd
25/75
HR
1
8 BBE
SliderSt 1314% used
Whiff
30%
Contact
70%
EV
86
Barrel
0%
Air/Gnd
35/30
HR
0
20 BBE
ChangeSt 6111% used
Whiff
33%
Contact
67%
EV
—
Barrel
—
Air/Gnd
—
HR
—
thin 2026
CutterSt 4811% used
Whiff
44%
Contact
56%
EV
79
Barrel
14%
Air/Gnd
29/29
HR
1
7 BBE
CurveSt 328% used
Whiff
27%
Contact
73%
EV
82
Barrel
0%
Air/Gnd
33/33
HR
0
6 BBE
Pitch-by-pitch · Agnos throws / Suzuki hits
Stuff & usage = the arm’s; whiff / contact / EV / barrel / air-ground / HR = Suzuki’s 2026 vs RHP · green = bat’s edge
Cutter—30% used
Whiff
44%
Contact
56%
EV
79
Barrel
14%
Air/Gnd
29/29
HR
1
7 BBE
4-Seam—24% used
Whiff
17%
Contact
83%
EV
92
Barrel
4%
Air/Gnd
26/22
HR
2
27 BBE
Sweeper—21% used
Whiff
40%
Contact
60%
EV
90
Barrel
12%
Air/Gnd
25/75
HR
1
8 BBE
Sinker—11% used
Whiff
16%
Contact
84%
EV
95
Barrel
11%
Air/Gnd
22/39
HR
3
18 BBE
Slider—8% used
Whiff
30%
Contact
70%
EV
86
Barrel
0%
Air/Gnd
35/30
HR
0
20 BBE
Splitter—6% used
Whiff
40%
Contact
60%
EV
76
Barrel
0%
Air/Gnd
33/33
HR
0
3 BBE
Pitch-by-pitch · Castaño throws / Suzuki hits
Stuff & usage = the arm’s; whiff / contact / EV / barrel / air-ground / HR = Suzuki’s 2026 vs RHP · green = bat’s edge
Sinker—49% used
Whiff
16%
Contact
84%
EV
95
Barrel
11%
Air/Gnd
22/39
HR
3
18 BBE
Sweeper—25% used
Whiff
40%
Contact
60%
EV
90
Barrel
12%
Air/Gnd
25/75
HR
1
8 BBE
Cutter—18% used
Whiff
44%
Contact
56%
EV
79
Barrel
14%
Air/Gnd
29/29
HR
1
7 BBE
4-Seam—6% used
Whiff
17%
Contact
83%
EV
92
Barrel
4%
Air/Gnd
26/22
HR
2
27 BBE
Pitch-by-pitch · Senzatela throws / Suzuki hits
Stuff & usage = the arm’s; whiff / contact / EV / barrel / air-ground / HR = Suzuki’s 2026 vs RHP · green = bat’s edge
4-Seam—50% used
Whiff
17%
Contact
83%
EV
92
Barrel
4%
Air/Gnd
26/22
HR
2
27 BBE
Slider—23% used
Whiff
30%
Contact
70%
EV
86
Barrel
0%
Air/Gnd
35/30
HR
0
20 BBE
Curve—10% used
Whiff
27%
Contact
73%
EV
82
Barrel
0%
Air/Gnd
33/33
HR
0
6 BBE
Cutter—8% used
Whiff
44%
Contact
56%
EV
79
Barrel
14%
Air/Gnd
29/29
HR
1
7 BBE
Sinker—6% used
Whiff
16%
Contact
84%
EV
95
Barrel
11%
Air/Gnd
22/39
HR
3
18 BBE
Pitch-by-pitch · Mejia throws / Suzuki hits
Stuff & usage = the arm’s; whiff / contact / EV / barrel / air-ground / HR = Suzuki’s 2026 vs RHP · green = bat’s edge
4-Seam—52% used
Whiff
17%
Contact
83%
EV
92
Barrel
4%
Air/Gnd
26/22
HR
2
27 BBE
Sweeper—42% used
Whiff
40%
Contact
60%
EV
90
Barrel
12%
Air/Gnd
25/75
HR
1
8 BBE
Sinker—5% used
Whiff
16%
Contact
84%
EV
95
Barrel
11%
Air/Gnd
22/39
HR
3
18 BBE
Pitch-by-pitch · Vodnik throws / Suzuki hits
Stuff & usage = the arm’s; whiff / contact / EV / barrel / air-ground / HR = Suzuki’s 2026 vs RHP · green = bat’s edge
4-Seam—50% used
Whiff
17%
Contact
83%
EV
92
Barrel
4%
Air/Gnd
26/22
HR
2
27 BBE
Slider—29% used
Whiff
30%
Contact
70%
EV
86
Barrel
0%
Air/Gnd
35/30
HR
0
20 BBE
Change—11% used
Whiff
33%
Contact
67%
EV
—
Barrel
—
Air/Gnd
—
HR
—
thin 2026
Cutter—6% used
Whiff
44%
Contact
56%
EV
79
Barrel
14%
Air/Gnd
29/29
HR
1
7 BBE
Pitch-by-pitch · Bernardino throws / Suzuki hits
Stuff & usage = the arm’s; whiff / contact / EV / barrel / air-ground / HR = Suzuki’s 2026 vs LHP · green = bat’s edge
Sinker—33% used
Whiff
13%
Contact
87%
EV
94
Barrel
0%
Air/Gnd
0/50
HR
0
8 BBE
Curve—22% used
Whiff
40%
Contact
60%
EV
—
Barrel
—
Air/Gnd
—
HR
—
thin 2026
Cutter—21% used
Whiff
—
Contact
—
EV
—
Barrel
—
Air/Gnd
—
HR
—
thin 2026
Change—18% used
Whiff
25%
Contact
75%
EV
72
Barrel
0%
Air/Gnd
0/100
HR
0
3 BBE
4-Seam—4% used
Whiff
14%
Contact
86%
EV
88
Barrel
0%
Air/Gnd
33/11
HR
0
9 BBE
Pitch-by-pitch · Hill throws / Suzuki hits
Stuff & usage = the arm’s; whiff / contact / EV / barrel / air-ground / HR = Suzuki’s 2026 vs RHP · green = bat’s edge
Slider—38% used
Whiff
30%
Contact
70%
EV
86
Barrel
0%
Air/Gnd
35/30
HR
0
20 BBE
Sinker—30% used
Whiff
16%
Contact
84%
EV
95
Barrel
11%
Air/Gnd
22/39
HR
3
18 BBE
4-Seam—20% used
Whiff
17%
Contact
83%
EV
92
Barrel
4%
Air/Gnd
26/22
HR
2
27 BBE
Change—12% used
Whiff
33%
Contact
67%
EV
—
Barrel
—
Air/Gnd
—
HR
—
thin 2026
Pitch-by-pitch · Halvorsen throws / Suzuki hits
Stuff & usage = the arm’s; whiff / contact / EV / barrel / air-ground / HR = Suzuki’s 2026 vs RHP · green = bat’s edge
4-Seam—52% used
Whiff
17%
Contact
83%
EV
92
Barrel
4%
Air/Gnd
26/22
HR
2
27 BBE
Slider—33% used
Whiff
30%
Contact
70%
EV
86
Barrel
0%
Air/Gnd
35/30
HR
0
20 BBE
Splitter—14% used
Whiff
40%
Contact
60%
EV
76
Barrel
0%
Air/Gnd
33/33
HR
0
3 BBE
🎯 Target
Matchup-Fit · barrel alignment vs Michael Lorenzen’s arsenal
Sinker 24% usedbarrels 11% · allows 0% · 3 HR
4-Seam 17% usedbarrels 4% · allows 0% · 2 HR
Sweeper 15% usedbarrels 12% · allows 0% · 1 HR
Slider 14% usedbarrels 0% · allows 13%
Change 11% usedbarrels — · allows 8%
Air / Park
Pulls 21% in the air; pull side LF — park ×1.20 → park+wind fits his pull power.
Recent form · last 5
Barrel 0% · EV 90 · 1 HR over his last 5.
Matchup-Fit · barrel alignment vs Zach Agnos’s arsenal
Cutter 30% usedbarrels 14% · allows 0% · 1 HR
4-Seam 24% usedbarrels 4% · allows 17% · 2 HR
Sweeper 21% usedbarrels 12% · allows 0% · 1 HR
Sinker 11% usedbarrels 11% · allows 0% · 3 HR
Slider 8% usedbarrels 0% · allows 0%
Air / Park
Pulls 21% in the air; pull side LF — park ×1.20 → park+wind fits his pull power.
Recent form · last 5
Barrel 0% · EV 90 · 1 HR over his last 5.
Matchup-Fit · barrel alignment vs Blas Castaño’s arsenal
Sinker 49% usedbarrels 11% · allows 14% · 3 HR
Sweeper 25% usedbarrels 12% · allows — · 1 HR
Cutter 18% usedbarrels 14% · allows — · 1 HR
4-Seam 6% usedbarrels 4% · allows — · 2 HR
Air / Park
Pulls 21% in the air; pull side LF — park ×1.20 → park+wind fits his pull power.
Recent form · last 5
Barrel 0% · EV 90 · 1 HR over his last 5.
Matchup-Fit · barrel alignment vs Antonio Senzatela’s arsenal
4-Seam 50% usedbarrels 4% · allows 0% · 2 HR
Slider 23% usedbarrels 0% · allows —
Curve 10% usedbarrels 0% · allows —
Cutter 8% usedbarrels 14% · allows 5% · 1 HR
Sinker 6% usedbarrels 11% · allows 6% · 3 HR
Air / Park
Pulls 21% in the air; pull side LF — park ×1.20 → park+wind fits his pull power.
Recent form · last 5
Barrel 0% · EV 90 · 1 HR over his last 5.
Matchup-Fit · barrel alignment vs Juan Mejia’s arsenal
4-Seam 52% usedbarrels 4% · allows 0% · 2 HR
Sweeper 42% usedbarrels 12% · allows 0% · 1 HR
Sinker 5% usedbarrels 11% · allows 0% · 3 HR
Air / Park
Pulls 21% in the air; pull side LF — park ×1.20 → park+wind fits his pull power.
Recent form · last 5
Barrel 0% · EV 90 · 1 HR over his last 5.
Matchup-Fit · barrel alignment vs Victor Vodnik’s arsenal
4-Seam 50% usedbarrels 4% · allows 12% · 2 HR
Slider 29% usedbarrels 0% · allows 0%
Change 11% usedbarrels — · allows —
Cutter 6% usedbarrels 14% · allows — · 1 HR
Air / Park
Pulls 21% in the air; pull side LF — park ×1.20 → park+wind fits his pull power.
Recent form · last 5
Barrel 0% · EV 90 · 1 HR over his last 5.
Matchup-Fit · barrel alignment vs Brennan Bernardino’s arsenal
Sinker 33% usedbarrels 0% · allows 7%
Curve 22% usedbarrels — · allows 0%
Cutter 21% usedbarrels — · allows 0%
Change 18% usedbarrels — · allows —
Air / Park
Pulls 21% in the air; pull side LF — park ×1.20 → park+wind fits his pull power.
Recent form · last 5
Barrel 0% · EV 90 · 1 HR over his last 5.
Matchup-Fit · barrel alignment vs Jaden Hill’s arsenal
Slider 38% usedbarrels 0% · allows 11%
Sinker 30% usedbarrels 11% · allows 8% · 3 HR
4-Seam 20% usedbarrels 4% · allows 0% · 2 HR
Change 12% usedbarrels — · allows —
Air / Park
Pulls 21% in the air; pull side LF — park ×1.20 → park+wind fits his pull power.
Recent form · last 5
Barrel 0% · EV 90 · 1 HR over his last 5.
Matchup-Fit · barrel alignment vs Seth Halvorsen’s arsenal
4-Seam 52% usedbarrels 4% · allows 0% · 2 HR
Slider 33% usedbarrels 0% · allows —
Splitter 14% usedbarrels — · allows —
Air / Park
Pulls 21% in the air; pull side LF — park ×1.20 → park+wind fits his pull power.
Recent form · last 5
Barrel 0% · EV 90 · 1 HR over his last 5.
Matchup Lab
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Batter Stats
Last 5 games · H/AB · K · GB · FB · barrel · EV · HR/FB · HR
| H/AB | K | GB | FB | BRL | EV | HR/FB | HR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5G | 6/18 | 7 | 18% | 18% | 0% | 90 | 50% | 1 |
| 06/13 | 1/2 | 1 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 84 | — | 0 |
| 06/12 | 2/4 | 1 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 93 | — | 0 |
| 06/11 | 1/4 | 2 | 50% | 0% | 0% | 104 | — | 1 |
| 06/10 | 1/4 | 3 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 87 | — | 0 |
| 06/09 | 1/4 | 0 | 25% | 50% | 0% | 82 | 0% | 0 |
Swing & Bat Tracking (411 swings)
bat tracking
Bat speed72.9 mph
Swing length7.3 ft
Attack angle9.7°
contact
swing timing
Early24%
On-time63%
Late14%
miss profile
Over9%
Under27%
Tied-up8%
Centered66%
Flailed26%
Batter power & contact · longer + greener = more HR-likely
vs LHP · 2 HR in 59 PA
vs RHP · 9 HR in 181 PA
Matchup strength · longer + greener = more HR-favorable
matchup strength
supporting
Home / Away HR splits · season-to-date
Home HOME6 HR / 113 PA · 5.3%
Home · .474 SLG
Away AWAY4 HR / 123 PA · 3.3%
Away · .398 SLG
Park fit · spray vs this yard
Pulls 21% of contact in the air; his pull side is LF here — HR factor ×1.20 → park fits his pull power.
Pitcher
Michael Lorenzen • RHP (COL)COL @ CHC | vs CHC2/8 W–L • 7.54 ERA • 55 Ks (Tied–90th) • 1.90 WHIP1.5 HR/9 • 15% Barrel • 23% FB • 17% K • 7.54 ERA (H 8.44 / A 6.68)◐ Homer-prone on the year, quieter last 30.95hittability
Michael Lorenzen • RHP (COL)
COL @ CHC | vs CHC
2/8 W–L • 7.54 ERA • 55 Ks (Tied–90th) • 1.90 WHIP
1.5 HR/9 • 15% Barrel • 23% FB • 17% K • 7.54 ERA (H 8.44 / A 6.68)
◐ Homer-prone on the year, quieter last 3
0.95
hittability
Last 3 starts · IP / pitches / HR
◐ Homer-prone on the year, quieter last 3 Homer-prone over the full season — the quiet recent stretch is a small sample the model discounts.
06/10 5.0 IP · 84 P0 HR
06/03 3.1 IP · 85 P1 HR
05/29 3.2 IP · 70 P0 HR
Pitches to target · go-deep pitches
The pitches he's given up the most homers on — and the bats most likely to punish them.
vs lefty bats4-seam · curve
Most likely to capitalize: Crow-Armstrong 29%, Busch 28%, Happ 27%
vs righty batsslider · change
Most likely to capitalize: Suzuki 26%, Swanson 12%, Bregman 9%
HR hittability vs a league-average hitter · longer + greener = easier to take deep
vs LHB · 1.9 HR/9 · 10 HR in 173 PA
vs RHB · 1.1 HR/9 · 5 HR in 185 PA
Pitch mix · stuff · HR rating · swing-and-miss · contact
spin 2:03
spin 1:27
spin 1:34
spin 1:01
spin 6:55
spin 9:51
spin 7:59
spin 2:03
spin 1:27
spin 1:34
spin 1:01
spin 6:55
spin 9:51
spin 7:59
spin 2:03
spin 1:27
spin 1:34
spin 1:01
spin 6:55
spin 9:51
spin 7:59
Where he’s hittable · xSLG allowed by zone (vs RHB)
Green = he gives up slug there. Tap a band → out/mid/in cells → each pitch’s xSLG + a cyan contact-allowed bar. Cell splits use 2025–26; display only.
Splits · home/away & batter hand
| HR/9 | HR | Barrel | FB% | K% | ERA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.41 | 5 | — | — | 16% | 8.44 |
| Away | 1.60 | 6 | — | — | 19% | 6.68 |
| vs LHB | 1.88 | 10 | 18% | 27% | 19% | — |
| vs RHB | 1.08 | 5 | 13% | 20% | 18% | — |
HR = home runs allowed (season-to-date). ERA isn’t reported by batter hand, and barrel/FB% aren’t available by home/away — those cells show —.
Pitcher summary · vs RHB
Michael Lorenzen carries a 1.54 HR/9 and gave up 0 in his last outing (1 over his last 3). Righties have taken him deep 5 of 15 times (0.7 HR/9 to RHB). He owns a 6.68 ERA on the road. CHC ranks 4th in HR factor for RH hitters.
Zach Agnos • RHP (COL)COL @ CHC | vs CHC0/2 W–L • 7.80 ERA • 30 Ks • 1.66 WHIP1.4 HR/9 • 16% Barrel • 29% FB • 17% K • 7.80 ERA (H 8.14 / A 7.36)▬ Holding steady1.23hittability
Zach Agnos • RHP (COL)
COL @ CHC | vs CHC
0/2 W–L • 7.80 ERA • 30 Ks • 1.66 WHIP
1.4 HR/9 • 16% Barrel • 29% FB • 17% K • 7.80 ERA (H 8.14 / A 7.36)
▬ Holding steady
1.23
hittability
Last 3 outings · IP / pitches / HR
▬ Holding steady No big change in his home-run risk lately.
06/12 2.2 IP · 60 P relief0 HR
06/06 3.0 IP · 57 P2 HR
05/31 1.0 IP · 35 P relief1 HR
Pitches to target · go-deep pitches
The pitches he's given up the most homers on — and the bats most likely to punish them.
vs lefty batscutter · 4-seam
Most likely to capitalize: Crow-Armstrong 29%, Busch 28%, Happ 27%
vs righty bats4-seam
Most likely to capitalize: Suzuki 26%, Swanson 12%, Bregman 9%
HR hittability vs a league-average hitter · longer + greener = easier to take deep
vs LHB · 1.4 HR/9 · 4 HR in 98 PA
vs RHB · 1.4 HR/9 · 5 HR in 128 PA
Pitch mix · stuff · HR rating · swing-and-miss · contact
Splits · home/away & batter hand
| HR/9 | HR | Barrel | FB% | K% | ERA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.22 | 6 | — | — | 13% | 8.14 |
| Away | 0.98 | 2 | — | — | 17% | 7.36 |
| vs LHB | 1.39 | 4 | 17% | 30% | 20% | — |
| vs RHB | 1.37 | 5 | 14% | 25% | 15% | — |
HR = home runs allowed (season-to-date). ERA isn’t reported by batter hand, and barrel/FB% aren’t available by home/away — those cells show —.
Pitcher summary · vs RHB
Zach Agnos carries a 1.45 HR/9 and gave up 0 in his last outing (3 over his last 3). Righties have taken him deep 5 of 9 times (2.1 HR/9 to RHB). He owns a 7.36 ERA on the road. CHC ranks 4th in HR factor for RH hitters.
Blas Castaño • RHP (COL)COL @ CHC | vs CHC0/0 W–L • 4.19 ERA • 16 Ks • 1.45 WHIP1.9 HR/9 • 15% Barrel • 23% FB • 20% K • 4.19 ERA (H 5.59 / A 2.79)▲ Easier to take deep lately1.11hittability
Blas Castaño • RHP (COL)
COL @ CHC | vs CHC
0/0 W–L • 4.19 ERA • 16 Ks • 1.45 WHIP
1.9 HR/9 • 15% Barrel • 23% FB • 20% K • 4.19 ERA (H 5.59 / A 2.79)
▲ Easier to take deep lately
1.11
hittability
Last 3 games · IP / pitches / HR
▲ Easier to take deep lately This pitcher is trending toward giving up home runs.
06/14 1.0 IP · 20 P1 HR
06/11 2.2 IP · 46 P1 HR
06/06 2.2 IP · 46 P0 HR
Pitches to target · go-deep pitches
The pitches he's given up the most homers on — and the bats most likely to punish them.
vs lefty batscutter · sinker
Most likely to capitalize: Crow-Armstrong 29%, Busch 28%, Happ 27%
vs righty batssweeper
Most likely to capitalize: Suzuki 26%, Swanson 12%, Bregman 9%
HR hittability vs a league-average hitter · longer + greener = easier to take deep
vs LHB · 2.0 HR/9 · 4 HR in 43 PA
vs RHB · 1.1 HR/9 · 1 HR in 38 PA
Pitch mix · stuff · HR rating · swing-and-miss · contact
Splits · home/away & batter hand
| HR/9 | HR | Barrel | FB% | K% | ERA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.79 | 3 | — | — | 20% | 5.59 |
| Away | 0.93 | 1 | — | — | 19% | 2.79 |
| vs LHB | 2.02 | 4 | 15% | 22% | 15% | — |
| vs RHB | 1.14 | 1 | 14% | 25% | 27% | — |
HR = home runs allowed (season-to-date). ERA isn’t reported by batter hand, and barrel/FB% aren’t available by home/away — those cells show —.
Pitcher summary · vs RHB
Blas Castaño carries a 1.86 HR/9 and gave up 1 in his last outing (2 over his last 3). Righties have taken him deep 1 of 5 times (0.9 HR/9 to RHB). CHC ranks 4th in HR factor for RH hitters.
Antonio Senzatela • RHP (COL)COL @ CHC | vs CHC6/0 W–L (Tied–21st) • 2.11 ERA • 32 Ks • 1.02 WHIP1.0 HR/9 • 12% Barrel • 27% FB • 21% K • 2.11 ERA (H 3.50 / A 0.89)▲ Easier to take deep lately0.96hittability
Antonio Senzatela • RHP (COL)
COL @ CHC | vs CHC
6/0 W–L (Tied–21st) • 2.11 ERA • 32 Ks • 1.02 WHIP
1.0 HR/9 • 12% Barrel • 27% FB • 21% K • 2.11 ERA (H 3.50 / A 0.89)
▲ Easier to take deep lately
0.96
hittability
Last 3 games · IP / pitches / HR
▲ Easier to take deep lately This pitcher is trending toward giving up home runs.
06/10 1.0 IP · 14 P1 HR
06/09 1.0 IP · 22 P0 HR
06/05 1.2 IP · 39 P0 HR
Pitches to target · go-deep pitches
The pitches he's given up the most homers on — and the bats most likely to punish them.
vs lefty batscutter
Most likely to capitalize: Crow-Armstrong 29%, Busch 28%, Happ 27%
vs righty batscutter
Most likely to capitalize: Suzuki 26%, Swanson 12%, Bregman 9%
HR hittability vs a league-average hitter · longer + greener = easier to take deep
vs LHB · 1.1 HR/9 · 2 HR in 76 PA
vs RHB · 1.0 HR/9 · 2 HR in 95 PA
Pitch mix · stuff · HR rating · swing-and-miss · contact
Splits · home/away & batter hand
| HR/9 | HR | Barrel | FB% | K% | ERA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 0.50 | 1 | — | — | 21% | 3.50 |
| Away | 0.89 | 2 | — | — | 22% | 0.89 |
| vs LHB | 1.10 | 2 | 14% | 29% | 22% | — |
| vs RHB | 0.98 | 2 | 12% | 22% | 20% | — |
HR = home runs allowed (season-to-date). ERA isn’t reported by batter hand, and barrel/FB% aren’t available by home/away — those cells show —.
Pitcher summary · vs RHB
Antonio Senzatela carries a 0.97 HR/9 and gave up 1 in his last outing. CHC ranks 4th in HR factor for RH hitters.
Juan Mejia • RHP (COL)COL @ CHC | vs CHC1/5 W–L • 5.97 ERA • 36 Ks • 1.67 WHIP0.7 HR/9 • 12% Barrel • 25% FB • 25% K • 5.97 ERA (H 5.94 / A 6.00)▬ Holding steady0.80hittability
Juan Mejia • RHP (COL)
COL @ CHC | vs CHC
1/5 W–L • 5.97 ERA • 36 Ks • 1.67 WHIP
0.7 HR/9 • 12% Barrel • 25% FB • 25% K • 5.97 ERA (H 5.94 / A 6.00)
▬ Holding steady
0.80
hittability
Last 3 games · IP / pitches / HR
▬ Holding steady No big change in his home-run risk lately.
06/13 1.1 IP · 18 P0 HR
06/10 1.0 IP · 10 P0 HR
06/06 1.0 IP · 19 P0 HR
Not enough data for this view.
HR hittability vs a league-average hitter · longer + greener = easier to take deep
vs LHB · 1.1 HR/9 · 2 HR in 72 PA
vs RHB · 0.6 HR/9 · 0 HR in 88 PA
Pitch mix · stuff · HR rating · swing-and-miss · contact
Splits · home/away & batter hand
| HR/9 | HR | Barrel | FB% | K% | ERA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 0.54 | 1 | — | — | 26% | 5.94 |
| Away | 0.60 | 1 | — | — | 22% | 6.00 |
| vs LHB | 1.13 | 2 | 14% | 27% | 25% | — |
| vs RHB | 0.57 | 0 | 12% | 22% | 23% | — |
HR = home runs allowed (season-to-date). ERA isn’t reported by batter hand, and barrel/FB% aren’t available by home/away — those cells show —.
Pitcher summary · vs RHB
Juan Mejia carries a 0.67 HR/9. He owns a 6.00 ERA on the road. CHC ranks 4th in HR factor for RH hitters.
Victor Vodnik • RHP (COL)COL @ CHC | vs CHC1/2 W–L • 8.00 ERA • 16 Ks • 2.11 WHIP1.3 HR/9 • 10% Barrel • 20% FB • 19% K • 8.00 ERA (H 13.50 / A 4.76)▼ Tougher to homer off lately0.77hittability
Victor Vodnik • RHP (COL)
COL @ CHC | vs CHC
1/2 W–L • 8.00 ERA • 16 Ks • 2.11 WHIP
1.3 HR/9 • 10% Barrel • 20% FB • 19% K • 8.00 ERA (H 13.50 / A 4.76)
▼ Tougher to homer off lately
0.77
hittability
Last 3 games · IP / pitches / HR
▼ Tougher to homer off lately This pitcher is trending the right way — fewer homers.
05/18 0.0 IP · 14 P0 HR
05/17 1.0 IP · 11 P0 HR
05/14 0.2 IP · 16 P0 HR
Pitches to target · go-deep pitches
The pitches he's given up the most homers on — and the bats most likely to punish them.
vs lefty batschange
Most likely to capitalize: Crow-Armstrong 29%, Busch 28%, Happ 27%
vs righty batsno clear target
Most likely to capitalize: Suzuki 26%, Swanson 12%, Bregman 9%
HR hittability vs a league-average hitter · longer + greener = easier to take deep
vs LHB · 1.6 HR/9 · 3 HR in 51 PA
vs RHB · 1.0 HR/9 · 1 HR in 61 PA
Pitch mix · stuff · HR rating · swing-and-miss · contact
Splits · home/away & batter hand
| HR/9 | HR | Barrel | FB% | K% | ERA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.35 | 1 | — | — | 22% | 13.50 |
| Away | 0.79 | 1 | — | — | 15% | 4.76 |
| vs LHB | 1.60 | 3 | 13% | 22% | 22% | — |
| vs RHB | 0.95 | 1 | 10% | 21% | 18% | — |
HR = home runs allowed (season-to-date). ERA isn’t reported by batter hand, and barrel/FB% aren’t available by home/away — those cells show —.
Pitcher summary · vs RHB
Victor Vodnik carries a 1.30 HR/9. CHC ranks 4th in HR factor for RH hitters.
Brennan Bernardino • LHP (COL)COL @ CHC | vs CHC2/3 W–L • 4.18 ERA • 22 Ks • 1.29 WHIP0.7 HR/9 • 12% Barrel • 18% FB • 20% K • 4.18 ERA (H 3.86 / A 4.50)▬ Holding steady0.77hittability
Brennan Bernardino • LHP (COL)
COL @ CHC | vs CHC
2/3 W–L • 4.18 ERA • 22 Ks • 1.29 WHIP
0.7 HR/9 • 12% Barrel • 18% FB • 20% K • 4.18 ERA (H 3.86 / A 4.50)
▬ Holding steady
0.77
hittability
Last 3 games · IP / pitches / HR
▬ Holding steady No big change in his home-run risk lately.
06/12 0.2 IP · 9 P0 HR
06/10 1.0 IP · 15 P0 HR
06/09 1.0 IP · 11 P0 HR
Pitches to target · go-deep pitches
The pitches he's given up the most homers on — and the bats most likely to punish them.
vs lefty batsno clear target
Most likely to capitalize: Crow-Armstrong 29%, Busch 28%, Ballesteros 12%
vs righty batscutter
Most likely to capitalize: Happ 27%, Suzuki 26%, Swanson 12%
HR hittability vs a league-average hitter · longer + greener = easier to take deep
vs LHB · 0.9 HR/9 · 1 HR in 72 PA
vs RHB · 0.9 HR/9 · 1 HR in 71 PA
Pitch mix · stuff · HR rating · swing-and-miss · contact
Splits · home/away & batter hand
| HR/9 | HR | Barrel | FB% | K% | ERA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.29 | 2 | — | — | 20% | 3.86 |
| Away | 0.00 | 0 | — | — | 16% | 4.50 |
| vs LHB | 0.88 | 1 | 14% | 20% | 24% | — |
| vs RHB | 0.89 | 1 | 11% | 20% | 17% | — |
HR = home runs allowed (season-to-date). ERA isn’t reported by batter hand, and barrel/FB% aren’t available by home/away — those cells show —.
Pitcher summary · vs RHB
Brennan Bernardino carries a 0.73 HR/9. CHC ranks 4th in HR factor for RH hitters.
Jaden Hill • RHP (COL)COL @ CHC | vs CHC0/2 W–L • 5.32 ERA • 25 Ks • 1.73 WHIP0.9 HR/9 • 13% Barrel • 21% FB • 23% K • 5.32 ERA (H 5.54 / A 5.06)▲ Easier to take deep lately0.77hittability
Jaden Hill • RHP (COL)
COL @ CHC | vs CHC
0/2 W–L • 5.32 ERA • 25 Ks • 1.73 WHIP
0.9 HR/9 • 13% Barrel • 21% FB • 23% K • 5.32 ERA (H 5.54 / A 5.06)
▲ Easier to take deep lately
0.77
hittability
Last 3 games · IP / pitches / HR
▲ Easier to take deep lately This pitcher is trending toward giving up home runs.
06/13 0.1 IP · 16 P0 HR
06/09 1.0 IP · 14 P0 HR
06/07 0.1 IP · 22 P1 HR
Pitches to target · go-deep pitches
The pitches he's given up the most homers on — and the bats most likely to punish them.
vs lefty bats4-seam
Most likely to capitalize: Crow-Armstrong 29%, Busch 28%, Happ 27%
vs righty batssinker · slider
Most likely to capitalize: Suzuki 26%, Swanson 12%, Bregman 9%
HR hittability vs a league-average hitter · longer + greener = easier to take deep
vs LHB · 0.9 HR/9 · 1 HR in 75 PA
vs RHB · 1.2 HR/9 · 2 HR in 64 PA
Pitch mix · stuff · HR rating · swing-and-miss · contact
Splits · home/away & batter hand
| HR/9 | HR | Barrel | FB% | K% | ERA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.38 | 2 | — | — | 28% | 5.54 |
| Away | 0.00 | 0 | — | — | 15% | 5.06 |
| vs LHB | 0.86 | 1 | 13% | 23% | 22% | — |
| vs RHB | 1.19 | 2 | 14% | 22% | 23% | — |
HR = home runs allowed (season-to-date). ERA isn’t reported by batter hand, and barrel/FB% aren’t available by home/away — those cells show —.
Pitcher summary · vs RHB
Jaden Hill carries a 0.93 HR/9 and gave up 0 in his last outing (1 over his last 3). He owns a 5.06 ERA on the road. CHC ranks 4th in HR factor for RH hitters.
Seth Halvorsen • RHP (COL)COL @ CHC | vs CHC0/0 W–L • 3.31 ERA • 16 Ks • 1.65 WHIP1.0 HR/9 • 17% Barrel • 22% FB • 19% K • 3.31 ERA (H 1.23 / A 5.00)▲ Easier to take deep lately0.73hittability
Seth Halvorsen • RHP (COL)
COL @ CHC | vs CHC
0/0 W–L • 3.31 ERA • 16 Ks • 1.65 WHIP
1.0 HR/9 • 17% Barrel • 22% FB • 19% K • 3.31 ERA (H 1.23 / A 5.00)
▲ Easier to take deep lately
0.73
hittability
Last 3 games · IP / pitches / HR
▲ Easier to take deep lately This pitcher is trending toward giving up home runs.
06/13 0.2 IP · 25 P0 HR
06/12 0.2 IP · 22 P2 HR
06/09 1.0 IP · 14 P0 HR
Not enough data for this view.
HR hittability vs a league-average hitter · longer + greener = easier to take deep
vs LHB · 1.1 HR/9 · 1 HR in 38 PA
vs RHB · 1.0 HR/9 · 1 HR in 55 PA
Pitch mix · stuff · HR rating · swing-and-miss · contact
Splits · home/away & batter hand
| HR/9 | HR | Barrel | FB% | K% | ERA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 0.00 | 0 | — | — | 24% | 1.23 |
| Away | 2.00 | 2 | — | — | 18% | 5.00 |
| vs LHB | 1.14 | 1 | 18% | 24% | 21% | — |
| vs RHB | 0.99 | 1 | 14% | 22% | 19% | — |
HR = home runs allowed (season-to-date). ERA isn’t reported by batter hand, and barrel/FB% aren’t available by home/away — those cells show —.
Pitcher summary · vs RHB
Seth Halvorsen carries a 0.97 HR/9 and gave up 0 in his last outing (2 over his last 3). He owns a 5.00 ERA on the road. CHC ranks 4th in HR factor for RH hitters.
Pick who he’ll face
Matchup vs Michael LorenzenA+
Arms like Michael Lorenzen
Most similar arsenals (velocity, movement, mix): JR Ritchie, Stephen Kolek, Michael McGreevy, Merrill Kelly, Brandon Pfaadt, Slade Cecconi.
vs arms like this (since 2025), 3 HR in 35 PA (8.6% · league ~3%).
Matchup vs Zach AgnosA · ×1.13
Arms like Zach Agnos
Most similar arsenals (velocity, movement, mix): Cole Winn, Luis Severino, Colin Rea, Zack Wheeler, Tomoyuki Sugano, Zack Kelly.
vs arms like this (since 2025), 2 HR in 17 PA (11.8% · league ~3%).
Matchup vs Blas CastañoA · ×1.21
Matchup vs Antonio SenzatelaB · ×1.09
Arms like Antonio Senzatela
Most similar arsenals (velocity, movement, mix): Ryne Nelson, Spencer Strider, Freddy Peralta, Victor Vodnik, Max Scherzer, Didier Fuentes.
vs arms like this (since 2025), 0 HR in 39 PA (0.0% · league ~3%).
Matchup vs Juan MejiaA · ×1.15
Arms like Juan Mejia
Most similar arsenals (velocity, movement, mix): Matt Festa, Connor Phillips, Shohei Ohtani, Ryan Weiss, Kai-Wei Teng, Paul Sewald.
Matchup vs Victor VodnikB · ×1.09
Arms like Victor Vodnik
Most similar arsenals (velocity, movement, mix): Bubba Chandler, Juan Morillo, Luis Gil, Robert Suarez, Antonio Senzatela, Bryan Baker.
vs arms like this (since 2025), 1 HR in 42 PA (2.4% · league ~3%).
Matchup vs Brennan BernardinoA · ×1.16
Arms like Brennan Bernardino
Most similar arsenals (velocity, movement, mix): Joe Mantiply, Justin Bruihl, John King, Ranger Suarez, Aaron Bummer, Brant Hurter.
vs arms like this (since 2025), 2 HR in 33 PA (6.1% · league ~3%).
Matchup vs Jaden HillA · ×1.13
Arms like Jaden Hill
Most similar arsenals (velocity, movement, mix): Rhett Lowder, George Soriano, Alex Lange, Luis Medina, Taylor Clarke, Max Meyer.
vs arms like this (since 2025), 0 HR in 11 PA (0.0% · league ~3%).
Matchup vs Seth HalvorsenA · ×1.10
Arms like Seth Halvorsen
Most similar arsenals (velocity, movement, mix): Ryne Stanek, Didier Fuentes, Jeff Hoffman, Victor Vodnik, Michael Petersen, Joe Boyle.
vs arms like this (since 2025), 1 HR in 21 PA (4.8% · league ~3%).
JJ Bleday LCIN HOME vs Tobias Myers R · CINwind 1.02park 1.18brl 16%recent 14% HOT26%MatchupC+280
JJ Bleday L
CIN HOME vs Tobias Myers R · CIN
wind 1.02park 1.18brl 16%recent 14% HOT
26%
MatchupC
+280
JJ Bleday L
CIN HOME vs Tobias Myers R · CIN
wind 1.02park 1.18brl 16%recent 14% HOT
26%
Matchup summary · vs Tobias Myers
Batter Summary 📈 Trending up
Bleday has 10 of his 12 HRs off RHP, 46% hard-hit that side. 7 of his 12 HRs have come at home, slugging .687 there. Bleday has been hot against arms like this lately.
Form Last ~3 weeks (recency-weighted): .401 xwOBAcon (lg .372), 14% well-hit (lg 14%), 42% hard-hit · 3 HR in 53 PA. Recent contact quality is beating league — the rating catches the heat before the HR totals show it.
Ranking Reasoning
Strong HR spot.
A homer-prone starter, he's vulnerable to lefties (1.7 HR/9) and big power vs RHP (16% barrels).
A homer-prone starter, he's vulnerable to lefties (1.7 HR/9) and big power vs RHP (16% barrels).
🏟️ Homered here 6× at this park (since ’25)
⚾ vs Myers (career): 0/1 AB | 0 HR | 1K
AAA ’25–’26: 12 HR / 236 PA · .260 ISO AAA-informed ▲
Pitch by Pitch
Pitch-by-pitch · Myers throws / Bleday hits
Stuff & usage = the arm’s; whiff / contact / EV / barrel / air-ground / HR = Bleday’s 2026 vs RHP · green = bat’s edge
4-SeamSt 5848% used
Whiff
8%
Contact
92%
EV
93
Barrel
16%
Air/Gnd
44/28
HR
4
25 BBE
SplitterSt 1729% used
Whiff
43%
Contact
57%
EV
93
Barrel
0%
Air/Gnd
14/57
HR
0
7 BBE
CutterSt 5214% used
Whiff
5%
Contact
95%
EV
95
Barrel
0%
Air/Gnd
0/67
HR
0
9 BBE
SliderSt 38% used
Whiff
28%
Contact
72%
EV
98
Barrel
11%
Air/Gnd
33/44
HR
2
9 BBE
Pitch-by-pitch · Myers throws / Bleday hits
Stuff & usage = the arm’s; whiff / contact / EV / barrel / air-ground / HR = Bleday’s 2026 vs RHP · green = bat’s edge
4-SeamSt 5848% used
Whiff
8%
Contact
92%
EV
93
Barrel
16%
Air/Gnd
44/28
HR
4
25 BBE
SplitterSt 1729% used
Whiff
43%
Contact
57%
EV
93
Barrel
0%
Air/Gnd
14/57
HR
0
7 BBE
CutterSt 5214% used
Whiff
5%
Contact
95%
EV
95
Barrel
0%
Air/Gnd
0/67
HR
0
9 BBE
SliderSt 38% used
Whiff
28%
Contact
72%
EV
98
Barrel
11%
Air/Gnd
33/44
HR
2
9 BBE
Pitch-by-pitch · Warren throws / Bleday hits
Stuff & usage = the arm’s; whiff / contact / EV / barrel / air-ground / HR = Bleday’s 2026 vs RHP · green = bat’s edge
Sweeper—41% used
Whiff
25%
Contact
75%
EV
99
Barrel
0%
Air/Gnd
20/20
HR
2
5 BBE
Sinker—21% used
Whiff
25%
Contact
75%
EV
97
Barrel
14%
Air/Gnd
14/86
HR
0
7 BBE
4-Seam—15% used
Whiff
8%
Contact
92%
EV
93
Barrel
16%
Air/Gnd
44/28
HR
4
25 BBE
Curve—15% used
Whiff
37%
Contact
63%
EV
99
Barrel
0%
Air/Gnd
14/43
HR
1
7 BBE
Change—4% used
Whiff
34%
Contact
66%
EV
86
Barrel
5%
Air/Gnd
20/50
HR
1
20 BBE
Cutter—4% used
Whiff
5%
Contact
95%
EV
95
Barrel
0%
Air/Gnd
0/67
HR
0
9 BBE
Pitch-by-pitch · Weaver throws / Bleday hits
Stuff & usage = the arm’s; whiff / contact / EV / barrel / air-ground / HR = Bleday’s 2026 vs RHP · green = bat’s edge
4-Seam—56% used
Whiff
8%
Contact
92%
EV
93
Barrel
16%
Air/Gnd
44/28
HR
4
25 BBE
Change—41% used
Whiff
34%
Contact
66%
EV
86
Barrel
5%
Air/Gnd
20/50
HR
1
20 BBE
Cutter—4% used
Whiff
5%
Contact
95%
EV
95
Barrel
0%
Air/Gnd
0/67
HR
0
9 BBE
Pitch-by-pitch · Raley throws / Bleday hits
Stuff & usage = the arm’s; whiff / contact / EV / barrel / air-ground / HR = Bleday’s 2026 vs LHP · green = bat’s edge
Sweeper—42% used
Whiff
45%
Contact
55%
EV
—
Barrel
—
Air/Gnd
—
HR
—
thin 2026
Sinker—33% used
Whiff
21%
Contact
79%
EV
88
Barrel
7%
Air/Gnd
13/47
HR
1
15 BBE
Cutter—23% used
Whiff
43%
Contact
57%
EV
—
Barrel
—
Air/Gnd
—
HR
—
thin 2026
Pitch-by-pitch · Pintaro throws / Bleday hits
Stuff & usage = the arm’s; whiff / contact / EV / barrel / air-ground / HR = Bleday’s 2026 vs RHP · green = bat’s edge
Cutter—59% used
Whiff
5%
Contact
95%
EV
95
Barrel
0%
Air/Gnd
0/67
HR
0
9 BBE
Change—19% used
Whiff
34%
Contact
66%
EV
86
Barrel
5%
Air/Gnd
20/50
HR
1
20 BBE
Sinker—10% used
Whiff
25%
Contact
75%
EV
97
Barrel
14%
Air/Gnd
14/86
HR
0
7 BBE
4-Seam—7% used
Whiff
8%
Contact
92%
EV
93
Barrel
16%
Air/Gnd
44/28
HR
4
25 BBE
Sweeper—5% used
Whiff
25%
Contact
75%
EV
99
Barrel
0%
Air/Gnd
20/20
HR
2
5 BBE
Pitch-by-pitch · Manaea throws / Bleday hits
Stuff & usage = the arm’s; whiff / contact / EV / barrel / air-ground / HR = Bleday’s 2026 vs LHP · green = bat’s edge
4-Seam—43% used
Whiff
4%
Contact
96%
EV
90
Barrel
20%
Air/Gnd
40/0
HR
0
10 BBE
Sweeper—40% used
Whiff
45%
Contact
55%
EV
—
Barrel
—
Air/Gnd
—
HR
—
thin 2026
Sinker—15% used
Whiff
21%
Contact
79%
EV
88
Barrel
7%
Air/Gnd
13/47
HR
1
15 BBE
Pitch-by-pitch · Minter throws / Bleday hits
Stuff & usage = the arm’s; whiff / contact / EV / barrel / air-ground / HR = Bleday’s 2026 vs LHP · green = bat’s edge
Cutter—63% used
Whiff
43%
Contact
57%
EV
—
Barrel
—
Air/Gnd
—
HR
—
thin 2026
4-Seam—37% used
Whiff
4%
Contact
96%
EV
90
Barrel
20%
Air/Gnd
40/0
HR
0
10 BBE
Pitch-by-pitch · Peterson throws / Bleday hits
Stuff & usage = the arm’s; whiff / contact / EV / barrel / air-ground / HR = Bleday’s 2026 vs LHP · green = bat’s edge
Sinker—42% used
Whiff
21%
Contact
79%
EV
88
Barrel
7%
Air/Gnd
13/47
HR
1
15 BBE
Slider—35% used
Whiff
29%
Contact
71%
EV
85
Barrel
0%
Air/Gnd
20/0
HR
0
5 BBE
4-Seam—10% used
Whiff
4%
Contact
96%
EV
90
Barrel
20%
Air/Gnd
40/0
HR
0
10 BBE
Curve—10% used
Whiff
—
Contact
—
EV
—
Barrel
—
Air/Gnd
—
HR
—
thin 2026
Pitch-by-pitch · Pérez throws / Bleday hits
Stuff & usage = the arm’s; whiff / contact / EV / barrel / air-ground / HR = Bleday’s 2026 vs LHP · green = bat’s edge
Sinker—53% used
Whiff
21%
Contact
79%
EV
88
Barrel
7%
Air/Gnd
13/47
HR
1
15 BBE
Slurve—31% used
Whiff
—
Contact
—
EV
—
Barrel
—
Air/Gnd
—
HR
—
thin 2026
Slider—12% used
Whiff
29%
Contact
71%
EV
85
Barrel
0%
Air/Gnd
20/0
HR
0
5 BBE
4-Seam—4% used
Whiff
4%
Contact
96%
EV
90
Barrel
20%
Air/Gnd
40/0
HR
0
10 BBE
Pitch-by-pitch · Brazobán throws / Bleday hits
Stuff & usage = the arm’s; whiff / contact / EV / barrel / air-ground / HR = Bleday’s 2026 vs RHP · green = bat’s edge
Change—51% used
Whiff
34%
Contact
66%
EV
86
Barrel
5%
Air/Gnd
20/50
HR
1
20 BBE
Sinker—33% used
Whiff
25%
Contact
75%
EV
97
Barrel
14%
Air/Gnd
14/86
HR
0
7 BBE
4-Seam—10% used
Whiff
8%
Contact
92%
EV
93
Barrel
16%
Air/Gnd
44/28
HR
4
25 BBE
Cutter—4% used
Whiff
5%
Contact
95%
EV
95
Barrel
0%
Air/Gnd
0/67
HR
0
9 BBE
Pitch-by-pitch · Williams throws / Bleday hits
Stuff & usage = the arm’s; whiff / contact / EV / barrel / air-ground / HR = Bleday’s 2026 vs RHP · green = bat’s edge
4-Seam—54% used
Whiff
8%
Contact
92%
EV
93
Barrel
16%
Air/Gnd
44/28
HR
4
25 BBE
Change—45% used
Whiff
34%
Contact
66%
EV
86
Barrel
5%
Air/Gnd
20/50
HR
1
20 BBE
🎯 Target
Matchup-Fit · barrel alignment vs Tobias Myers’s arsenal
4-Seam 48% usedbarrels 16% · allows 0% · 4 HR
Splitter 29% usedbarrels 0% · allows 6%
Cutter 14% usedbarrels 0% · allows 0%
Slider 8% usedbarrels 11% · allows 0% · 2 HR
Air / Park
Pulls 32% in the air; pull side RF — park ×1.08 → park+wind fits his pull power.
Recent form · last 5
Barrel 6% · EV 88 · 2 HR over his last 5.
Matchup-Fit · barrel alignment vs Tobias Myers’s arsenal
4-Seam 48% usedbarrels 16% · allows 0% · 4 HR
Splitter 29% usedbarrels 0% · allows 6%
Cutter 14% usedbarrels 0% · allows 0%
Slider 8% usedbarrels 11% · allows 0% · 2 HR
Air / Park
Pulls 32% in the air; pull side RF — park ×1.08 → park+wind fits his pull power.
Recent form · last 5
Barrel 6% · EV 88 · 2 HR over his last 5.
Matchup-Fit · barrel alignment vs Austin Warren’s arsenal
Sweeper 41% usedbarrels 0% · allows 9% · 2 HR
Sinker 21% usedbarrels 14% · allows —
4-Seam 15% usedbarrels 16% · allows — · 4 HR
Curve 15% usedbarrels 0% · allows 0% · 1 HR
Change 4% usedbarrels 5% · allows — · 1 HR
Air / Park
Pulls 32% in the air; pull side RF — park ×1.08 → park+wind fits his pull power.
Recent form · last 5
Barrel 6% · EV 88 · 2 HR over his last 5.
Matchup-Fit · barrel alignment vs Luke Weaver’s arsenal
4-Seam 56% usedbarrels 16% · allows 0% · 4 HR
Change 41% usedbarrels 5% · allows 5% · 1 HR
Air / Park
Pulls 32% in the air; pull side RF — park ×1.08 → park+wind fits his pull power.
Recent form · last 5
Barrel 6% · EV 88 · 2 HR over his last 5.
Matchup-Fit · barrel alignment vs Brooks Raley’s arsenal
Sweeper 42% usedbarrels — · allows 0%
Sinker 33% usedbarrels 7% · allows 0% · 1 HR
Cutter 23% usedbarrels — · allows 14% · 1 HR
Air / Park
Pulls 32% in the air; pull side RF — park ×1.08 → park+wind fits his pull power.
Recent form · last 5
Barrel 6% · EV 88 · 2 HR over his last 5.
Matchup-Fit · barrel alignment vs Jonathan Pintaro’s arsenal
Cutter 59% usedbarrels 0% · allows —
Change 19% usedbarrels 5% · allows — · 1 HR
Sinker 10% usedbarrels 14% · allows —
4-Seam 7% usedbarrels 16% · allows — · 4 HR
Sweeper 5% usedbarrels 0% · allows — · 2 HR
Air / Park
Pulls 32% in the air; pull side RF — park ×1.08 → park+wind fits his pull power.
Recent form · last 5
Barrel 6% · EV 88 · 2 HR over his last 5.
Matchup-Fit · barrel alignment vs Sean Manaea’s arsenal
4-Seam 43% usedbarrels 20% · allows 7%
Sweeper 40% usedbarrels — · allows 8%
Sinker 15% usedbarrels 7% · allows 0% · 1 HR
Air / Park
Pulls 32% in the air; pull side RF — park ×1.08 → park+wind fits his pull power.
Recent form · last 5
Barrel 6% · EV 88 · 2 HR over his last 5.
Matchup-Fit · barrel alignment vs A.J. Minter’s arsenal
Cutter 63% usedbarrels — · allows — · 1 HR
4-Seam 37% usedbarrels 20% · allows —
Air / Park
Pulls 32% in the air; pull side RF — park ×1.08 → park+wind fits his pull power.
Recent form · last 5
Barrel 6% · EV 88 · 2 HR over his last 5.
Matchup-Fit · barrel alignment vs David Peterson’s arsenal
Sinker 42% usedbarrels 7% · allows 3% · 1 HR
Slider 35% usedbarrels 0% · allows 0%
4-Seam 10% usedbarrels 20% · allows —
Curve 10% usedbarrels — · allows 0% · 1 HR
Air / Park
Pulls 32% in the air; pull side RF — park ×1.08 → park+wind fits his pull power.
Recent form · last 5
Barrel 6% · EV 88 · 2 HR over his last 5.
Matchup-Fit · barrel alignment vs Cionel Pérez’s arsenal
Sinker 53% usedbarrels 7% · allows 11% · 1 HR
Slurve 31% usedbarrels — · allows 6%
Slider 12% usedbarrels 0% · allows —
Air / Park
Pulls 32% in the air; pull side RF — park ×1.08 → park+wind fits his pull power.
Recent form · last 5
Barrel 6% · EV 88 · 2 HR over his last 5.
Matchup-Fit · barrel alignment vs Huascar Brazobán’s arsenal
Change 51% usedbarrels 5% · allows 0% · 1 HR
Sinker 33% usedbarrels 14% · allows 0%
4-Seam 10% usedbarrels 16% · allows — · 4 HR
Cutter 4% usedbarrels 0% · allows —
Air / Park
Pulls 32% in the air; pull side RF — park ×1.08 → park+wind fits his pull power.
Recent form · last 5
Barrel 6% · EV 88 · 2 HR over his last 5.
Matchup-Fit · barrel alignment vs Devin Williams’s arsenal
4-Seam 54% usedbarrels 16% · allows 0% · 4 HR
Change 45% usedbarrels 5% · allows 7% · 1 HR
Air / Park
Pulls 32% in the air; pull side RF — park ×1.08 → park+wind fits his pull power.
Recent form · last 5
Barrel 6% · EV 88 · 2 HR over his last 5.
Matchup Lab
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Batter Stats
Last 5 games · H/AB · K · GB · FB · barrel · EV · HR/FB · HR
| H/AB | K | GB | FB | BRL | EV | HR/FB | HR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5G | 4/19 | 2 | 19% | 38% | 6% | 88 | 33% | 2 |
| 06/14 | 1/3 | 0 | 0% | 50% | 0% | 88 | 100% | 1 |
| 06/13 | 0/3 | 1 | 50% | 50% | 0% | 81 | 0% | 0 |
| 06/12 | 1/4 | 0 | 25% | 25% | 0% | 98 | 0% | 0 |
| 06/10 | 1/3 | 0 | 33% | 33% | 33% | 82 | 100% | 1 |
| 06/09 | 1/6 | 1 | 0% | 40% | 0% | 86 | 0% | 0 |
Swing & Bat Tracking (325 swings)
bat tracking
Bat speed74.2 mph
Swing length7.3 ft
contact
swing timing
Early30%
On-time66%
Late4%
miss profile
Over10%
Under18%
Tied-up8%
Centered61%
Flailed31%
Batter power & contact · longer + greener = more HR-likely
vs LHP · 4 HR in 59 PA
vs RHP · 12 HR in 168 PA
Matchup strength · longer + greener = more HR-favorable
matchup strength
supporting
Home / Away HR splits · season-to-date
Home HOME7 HR / 82 PA · 8.5%
Home · .687 SLG
Away AWAY5 HR / 101 PA · 5.0%
Away · .484 SLG
Park fit · spray vs this yard
Pulls 32% of contact in the air; his pull side is RF here — HR factor ×1.08 → park fits his pull power.
Pitcher
Tobias Myers • RHP (NYM)NYM @ CIN | vs CIN0/1 W–L • 4.05 ERA • 26 Ks • 1.08 WHIP1.5 HR/9 • 14% Barrel • 25% FB • 23% K • 4.05 ERA (H 4.41 / A 3.71)▬ Holding steady1.24hittability
Tobias Myers • RHP (NYM)
NYM @ CIN | vs CIN
0/1 W–L • 4.05 ERA • 26 Ks • 1.08 WHIP
1.5 HR/9 • 14% Barrel • 25% FB • 23% K • 4.05 ERA (H 4.41 / A 3.71)
▬ Holding steady
1.24
hittability
Last 3 games · IP / pitches / HR
▬ Holding steady No big change in his home-run risk lately.
05/29 1.0 IP · 10 P1 HR
05/27 0.2 IP · 9 P0 HR
05/25 1.1 IP · 20 P0 HR
Pitches to target · go-deep pitches
The pitches he's given up the most homers on — and the bats most likely to punish them.
vs lefty batssplit
Most likely to capitalize: Bleday 26%
vs righty batsslider · 4-seam
Most likely to capitalize: Stewart 25%, Suárez 20%, Steer 20%
HR hittability vs a league-average hitter · longer + greener = easier to take deep
vs LHB · 1.5 HR/9 · 4 HR in 88 PA
vs RHB · 1.4 HR/9 · 3 HR in 73 PA
Pitch mix · stuff · HR rating · swing-and-miss · contact
spin 12:31
spin 12:34
spin 9:48
spin 11:38
spin 12:31
spin 12:34
spin 9:48
spin 11:38
spin 12:31
spin 12:34
spin 9:48
spin 11:38
Where he’s hittable · xSLG allowed by zone (vs LHB)
Green = he gives up slug there. Tap a band → out/mid/in cells → each pitch’s xSLG + a cyan contact-allowed bar. Cell splits use 2025–26; display only.
Splits · home/away & batter hand
| HR/9 | HR | Barrel | FB% | K% | ERA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.65 | 3 | — | — | 19% | 4.41 |
| Away | 1.59 | 3 | — | — | 20% | 3.71 |
| vs LHB | 1.48 | 4 | 14% | 25% | 26% | — |
| vs RHB | 1.37 | 3 | 13% | 23% | 19% | — |
HR = home runs allowed (season-to-date). ERA isn’t reported by batter hand, and barrel/FB% aren’t available by home/away — those cells show —.
Pitcher summary · vs LHB
Tobias Myers carries a 1.53 HR/9 and gave up 1 in his last outing. Lefties have taken him deep 4 of 7 times (1.7 HR/9 to LHB).
Tobias Myers • RHP (NYM)NYM @ CIN | vs CIN0/1 W–L • 4.05 ERA • 26 Ks • 1.08 WHIP1.5 HR/9 • 14% Barrel • 25% FB • 23% K • 4.05 ERA (H 4.41 / A 3.71)▬ Holding steady1.24hittability
Tobias Myers • RHP (NYM)
NYM @ CIN | vs CIN
0/1 W–L • 4.05 ERA • 26 Ks • 1.08 WHIP
1.5 HR/9 • 14% Barrel • 25% FB • 23% K • 4.05 ERA (H 4.41 / A 3.71)
▬ Holding steady
1.24
hittability
Last 3 games · IP / pitches / HR
▬ Holding steady No big change in his home-run risk lately.
05/29 1.0 IP · 10 P1 HR
05/27 0.2 IP · 9 P0 HR
05/25 1.1 IP · 20 P0 HR
Pitches to target · go-deep pitches
The pitches he's given up the most homers on — and the bats most likely to punish them.
vs lefty batssplit
Most likely to capitalize: Bleday 26%
vs righty batsslider · 4-seam
Most likely to capitalize: Stewart 25%, Suárez 20%, Steer 20%
HR hittability vs a league-average hitter · longer + greener = easier to take deep
vs LHB · 1.5 HR/9 · 4 HR in 88 PA
vs RHB · 1.4 HR/9 · 3 HR in 73 PA
Pitch mix · stuff · HR rating · swing-and-miss · contact
spin 12:31
spin 12:34
spin 9:48
spin 11:38
spin 12:31
spin 12:34
spin 9:48
spin 11:38
spin 12:31
spin 12:34
spin 9:48
spin 11:38
Splits · home/away & batter hand
| HR/9 | HR | Barrel | FB% | K% | ERA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.65 | 3 | — | — | 19% | 4.41 |
| Away | 1.59 | 3 | — | — | 20% | 3.71 |
| vs LHB | 1.48 | 4 | 14% | 25% | 26% | — |
| vs RHB | 1.37 | 3 | 13% | 23% | 19% | — |
HR = home runs allowed (season-to-date). ERA isn’t reported by batter hand, and barrel/FB% aren’t available by home/away — those cells show —.
Pitcher summary · vs LHB
Tobias Myers carries a 1.53 HR/9 and gave up 1 in his last outing. Lefties have taken him deep 4 of 7 times (1.7 HR/9 to LHB).
Austin Warren • RHP (NYM)NYM @ CIN | vs CIN1/3 W–L • 2.84 ERA • 27 Ks • 1.26 WHIP1.1 HR/9 • 15% Barrel • 25% FB • 24% K • 2.84 ERA (H 2.03 / A 3.75)▬ Holding steady1.02hittability
Austin Warren • RHP (NYM)
NYM @ CIN | vs CIN
1/3 W–L • 2.84 ERA • 27 Ks • 1.26 WHIP
1.1 HR/9 • 15% Barrel • 25% FB • 24% K • 2.84 ERA (H 2.03 / A 3.75)
▬ Holding steady
1.02
hittability
Last 3 outings · IP / pitches / HR
▬ Holding steady No big change in his home-run risk lately.
06/13 2.0 IP · 40 P relief1 HR
06/10 1.0 IP · 33 P0 HR
06/06 2.0 IP · 34 P relief1 HR
Pitches to target · go-deep pitches
The pitches he's given up the most homers on — and the bats most likely to punish them.
vs lefty bats4-seam · curve
Most likely to capitalize: Bleday 26%
vs righty batssinker
Most likely to capitalize: Stewart 25%, Suárez 20%, Steer 20%
HR hittability vs a league-average hitter · longer + greener = easier to take deep
vs LHB · 1.3 HR/9 · 2 HR in 57 PA
vs RHB · 1.0 HR/9 · 1 HR in 58 PA
Pitch mix · stuff · HR rating · swing-and-miss · contact
Splits · home/away & batter hand
| HR/9 | HR | Barrel | FB% | K% | ERA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 0.67 | 1 | — | — | 34% | 2.03 |
| Away | 1.50 | 2 | — | — | 16% | 3.75 |
| vs LHB | 1.26 | 2 | 14% | 25% | 21% | — |
| vs RHB | 0.97 | 1 | 16% | 23% | 26% | — |
HR = home runs allowed (season-to-date). ERA isn’t reported by batter hand, and barrel/FB% aren’t available by home/away — those cells show —.
Pitcher summary · vs LHB
Austin Warren carries a 1.06 HR/9 and gave up 1 in his last outing (2 over his last 3).
Luke Weaver • RHP (NYM)NYM @ CIN | vs CIN2/1 W–L • 2.40 ERA • 27 Ks • 0.93 WHIP0.8 HR/9 • 12% Barrel • 25% FB • 23% K • 2.40 ERA (H 5.02 / A 0.00)◐ Homer-prone on the year, quieter last 31.01hittability
Luke Weaver • RHP (NYM)
NYM @ CIN | vs CIN
2/1 W–L • 2.40 ERA • 27 Ks • 0.93 WHIP
0.8 HR/9 • 12% Barrel • 25% FB • 23% K • 2.40 ERA (H 5.02 / A 0.00)
◐ Homer-prone on the year, quieter last 3
1.01
hittability
Last 3 games · IP / pitches / HR
◐ Homer-prone on the year, quieter last 3 Homer-prone over the full season — the quiet recent stretch is a small sample the model discounts.
06/11 1.0 IP · 11 P0 HR
06/07 1.0 IP · 18 P0 HR
06/05 1.0 IP · 7 P0 HR
Not enough data for this view.
HR hittability vs a league-average hitter · longer + greener = easier to take deep
vs LHB · 1.2 HR/9 · 2 HR in 68 PA
vs RHB · 0.7 HR/9 · 0 HR in 64 PA
Pitch mix · stuff · HR rating · swing-and-miss · contact
Splits · home/away & batter hand
| HR/9 | HR | Barrel | FB% | K% | ERA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.26 | 2 | — | — | 18% | 5.02 |
| Away | 0.00 | 0 | — | — | 28% | 0.00 |
| vs LHB | 1.16 | 2 | 14% | 22% | 23% | — |
| vs RHB | 0.67 | 0 | 11% | 27% | 23% | — |
HR = home runs allowed (season-to-date). ERA isn’t reported by batter hand, and barrel/FB% aren’t available by home/away — those cells show —.
Pitcher summary · vs LHB
Luke Weaver carries a 0.77 HR/9.
Brooks Raley • LHP (NYM)NYM @ CIN | vs CIN2/1 W–L • 2.08 ERA • 31 Ks • 1.27 WHIP0.8 HR/9 • 16% Barrel • 24% FB • 25% K • 2.08 ERA (H 1.54 / A 2.51)◐ Homer-prone on the year, quieter last 30.98hittability
Brooks Raley • LHP (NYM)
NYM @ CIN | vs CIN
2/1 W–L • 2.08 ERA • 31 Ks • 1.27 WHIP
0.8 HR/9 • 16% Barrel • 24% FB • 25% K • 2.08 ERA (H 1.54 / A 2.51)
◐ Homer-prone on the year, quieter last 3
0.98
hittability
Last 3 games · IP / pitches / HR
◐ Homer-prone on the year, quieter last 3 Homer-prone over the full season — the quiet recent stretch is a small sample the model discounts.
06/12 0.2 IP · 22 P0 HR
06/11 1.0 IP · 20 P0 HR
06/07 1.0 IP · 14 P0 HR
Pitches to target · go-deep pitches
The pitches he's given up the most homers on — and the bats most likely to punish them.
vs lefty batssweeper
Most likely to capitalize: Bleday 26%
vs righty batscutter
Most likely to capitalize: Stewart 25%, Suárez 20%, Steer 20%
HR hittability vs a league-average hitter · longer + greener = easier to take deep
vs LHB · 1.0 HR/9 · 1 HR in 49 PA
vs RHB · 0.9 HR/9 · 1 HR in 72 PA
Pitch mix · stuff · HR rating · swing-and-miss · contact
Splits · home/away & batter hand
| HR/9 | HR | Barrel | FB% | K% | ERA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 0.00 | 0 | — | — | 30% | 1.54 |
| Away | 1.26 | 2 | — | — | 25% | 2.51 |
| vs LHB | 1.04 | 1 | 12% | 24% | 23% | — |
| vs RHB | 0.88 | 1 | 18% | 24% | 25% | — |
HR = home runs allowed (season-to-date). ERA isn’t reported by batter hand, and barrel/FB% aren’t available by home/away — those cells show —.
Pitcher summary · vs LHB
Brooks Raley carries a 0.82 HR/9.
Jonathan Pintaro • RHP (NYM)NYM @ CIN | vs CIN0/0 W–L • 1.35 ERA • 5 Ks • 0.30 WHIP1.2 HR/9 • 12% Barrel • 22% FB • 21% K • 1.35 ERA (H 1.59 / A 0.00)▬ Holding steady0.95hittability
Jonathan Pintaro • RHP (NYM)
NYM @ CIN | vs CIN
0/0 W–L • 1.35 ERA • 5 Ks • 0.30 WHIP
1.2 HR/9 • 12% Barrel • 22% FB • 21% K • 1.35 ERA (H 1.59 / A 0.00)
▬ Holding steady
0.95
hittability
Last 3 games · IP / pitches / HR
▬ Holding steady No big change in his home-run risk lately.
06/10 3.0 IP · 46 P1 HR
05/25 2.2 IP · 40 P0 HR
05/23 1.0 IP · 12 P0 HR
Pitches to target · go-deep pitches
The pitches he's given up the most homers on — and the bats most likely to punish them.
vs lefty batscutter
Most likely to capitalize: Bleday 26%
vs righty batsno clear target
Most likely to capitalize: Stewart 25%, Suárez 20%, Steer 20%
HR hittability vs a league-average hitter · longer + greener = easier to take deep
vs LHB · 1.4 HR/9 · 1 HR in 15 PA
vs RHB · 1.0 HR/9 · 0 HR in 17 PA
Pitch mix · stuff · HR rating · swing-and-miss · contact
Splits · home/away & batter hand
| HR/9 | HR | Barrel | FB% | K% | ERA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.59 | 1 | — | — | 26% | 1.59 |
| Away | 0.00 | 0 | — | — | 0% | 0.00 |
| vs LHB | 1.41 | 1 | 14% | 24% | 21% | — |
| vs RHB | 0.99 | 0 | 12% | 21% | 21% | — |
HR = home runs allowed (season-to-date). ERA isn’t reported by batter hand, and barrel/FB% aren’t available by home/away — those cells show —.
Pitcher summary · vs LHB
Jonathan Pintaro carries a 1.20 HR/9 and gave up 1 in his last outing.
Sean Manaea • LHP (NYM)NYM @ CIN | vs CIN1/2 W–L • 4.78 ERA • 51 Ks • 1.35 WHIP1.1 HR/9 • 15% Barrel • 22% FB • 23% K • 4.78 ERA (H 4.94 / A 4.57)▬ Holding steady0.92hittability
Sean Manaea • LHP (NYM)
NYM @ CIN | vs CIN
1/2 W–L • 4.78 ERA • 51 Ks • 1.35 WHIP
1.1 HR/9 • 15% Barrel • 22% FB • 23% K • 4.78 ERA (H 4.94 / A 4.57)
▬ Holding steady
0.92
hittability
Last 3 starts · IP / pitches / HR
▬ Holding steady No big change in his home-run risk lately.
06/13 6.0 IP · 84 P1 HR
06/07 4.0 IP · 66 P bulk1 HR
06/01 5.0 IP · 63 P bulk1 HR
Pitches to target · go-deep pitches
The pitches he's given up the most homers on — and the bats most likely to punish them.
vs lefty bats4-seam
Most likely to capitalize: Bleday 26%
vs righty batscutter · sweeper
Most likely to capitalize: Stewart 25%, Suárez 20%, Steer 20%
HR hittability vs a league-average hitter · longer + greener = easier to take deep
vs LHB · 1.1 HR/9 · 2 HR in 79 PA
vs RHB · 1.2 HR/9 · 5 HR in 161 PA
Pitch mix · stuff · HR rating · swing-and-miss · contact
Splits · home/away & batter hand
| HR/9 | HR | Barrel | FB% | K% | ERA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 0.66 | 2 | — | — | 28% | 4.94 |
| Away | 1.66 | 4 | — | — | 18% | 4.57 |
| vs LHB | 1.08 | 2 | 13% | 18% | 27% | — |
| vs RHB | 1.19 | 5 | 16% | 26% | 21% | — |
HR = home runs allowed (season-to-date). ERA isn’t reported by batter hand, and barrel/FB% aren’t available by home/away — those cells show —.
Pitcher summary · vs LHB
Sean Manaea carries a 1.13 HR/9 and gave up 1 in his last outing (3 over his last 3). Lefties have taken him deep 2 of 7 times (1.1 HR/9 to LHB).
A.J. Minter • LHP (NYM)NYM @ CIN | vs CIN0/1 W–L • 0.00 ERA • 7 Ks • 0.68 WHIP0.8 HR/9 • 13% Barrel • 26% FB • 23% K • 0.00 ERA (H 0.00 / A 0.00)▬ Holding steady0.84hittability
A.J. Minter • LHP (NYM)
NYM @ CIN | vs CIN
0/1 W–L • 0.00 ERA • 7 Ks • 0.68 WHIP
0.8 HR/9 • 13% Barrel • 26% FB • 23% K • 0.00 ERA (H 0.00 / A 0.00)
▬ Holding steady
0.84
hittability
Last 3 games · IP / pitches / HR
▬ Holding steady No big change in his home-run risk lately.
06/14 0.2 IP · 4 P0 HR
06/11 1.1 IP · 14 P0 HR
06/07 1.0 IP · 13 P0 HR
Not enough data for this view.
HR hittability vs a league-average hitter · longer + greener = easier to take deep
vs LHB · 1.0 HR/9 · 0 HR in 12 PA
vs RHB · 1.0 HR/9 · 0 HR in 15 PA
Pitch mix · stuff · HR rating · swing-and-miss · contact
Splits · home/away & batter hand
| HR/9 | HR | Barrel | FB% | K% | ERA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 0.00 | 0 | — | — | 38% | 0.00 |
| Away | 0.00 | 0 | — | — | 14% | 0.00 |
| vs LHB | 1.04 | 0 | 15% | 27% | 24% | — |
| vs RHB | 1.01 | 0 | 12% | 22% | 21% | — |
HR = home runs allowed (season-to-date). ERA isn’t reported by batter hand, and barrel/FB% aren’t available by home/away — those cells show —.
Pitcher summary · vs LHB
A.J. Minter carries a 0.83 HR/9.
David Peterson • LHP (NYM)NYM @ CIN | vs CIN3/5 W–L • 5.75 ERA • 57 Ks (Tied–84th) • 1.64 WHIP0.6 HR/9 • 13% Barrel • 19% FB • 19% K • 5.66 ERA (H 7.15 / A 4.00)▬ Holding steady0.77hittability
David Peterson • LHP (NYM)
NYM @ CIN | vs CIN
3/5 W–L • 5.75 ERA • 57 Ks (Tied–84th) • 1.64 WHIP
0.6 HR/9 • 13% Barrel • 19% FB • 19% K • 5.66 ERA (H 7.15 / A 4.00)
▬ Holding steady
0.77
hittability
Last 3 starts · IP / pitches / HR
▬ Holding steady No big change in his home-run risk lately.
06/10 3.2 IP · 63 P bulk2 HR
05/31 4.0 IP · 51 P bulk0 HR
05/26 5.0 IP · 90 P0 HR
Pitches to target · go-deep pitches
The pitches he's given up the most homers on — and the bats most likely to punish them.
vs lefty batsno clear target
Most likely to capitalize: Bleday 26%
vs righty batscurve
Most likely to capitalize: Stewart 25%, Suárez 20%, Steer 20%
HR hittability vs a league-average hitter · longer + greener = easier to take deep
vs LHB · 0.7 HR/9 · 1 HR in 112 PA
vs RHB · 0.7 HR/9 · 3 HR in 209 PA
Pitch mix · stuff · HR rating · swing-and-miss · contact
Splits · home/away & batter hand
| HR/9 | HR | Barrel | FB% | K% | ERA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 0.79 | 3 | — | — | 19% | 7.15 |
| Away | 0.33 | 1 | — | — | 21% | 4.00 |
| vs LHB | 0.70 | 1 | 12% | 18% | 23% | — |
| vs RHB | 0.73 | 3 | 13% | 21% | 17% | — |
HR = home runs allowed (season-to-date). ERA isn’t reported by batter hand, and barrel/FB% aren’t available by home/away — those cells show —.
Pitcher summary · vs LHB
David Peterson carries a 0.59 HR/9 and gave up 2 in his last outing. Lefties have taken him deep 1 of 4 times (0.5 HR/9 to LHB).
Cionel Pérez • LHP (NYM)NYM @ CIN | vs CIN3/3 W–L • 5.01 ERA • 16 Ks • 1.41 WHIP1.3 HR/9 • 16% Barrel • 20% FB • 18% K • 5.01 ERA (H 7.11 / A 2.53)▲ Easier to take deep lately0.75hittability
Cionel Pérez • LHP (NYM)
NYM @ CIN | vs CIN
3/3 W–L • 5.01 ERA • 16 Ks • 1.41 WHIP
1.3 HR/9 • 16% Barrel • 20% FB • 18% K • 5.01 ERA (H 7.11 / A 2.53)
▲ Easier to take deep lately
0.75
hittability
Last 3 games · IP / pitches / HR
▲ Easier to take deep lately This pitcher is trending toward giving up home runs.
06/14 0.2 IP · 20 P0 HR
06/12 1.1 IP · 15 P1 HR
06/10 1.1 IP · 16 P0 HR
Pitches to target · go-deep pitches
The pitches he's given up the most homers on — and the bats most likely to punish them.
vs lefty batsslurve · sinker
Most likely to capitalize: Bleday 26%
vs righty bats4-seam
Most likely to capitalize: Stewart 25%, Suárez 20%, Steer 20%
HR hittability vs a league-average hitter · longer + greener = easier to take deep
vs LHB · 1.3 HR/9 · 2 HR in 53 PA
vs RHB · 1.2 HR/9 · 2 HR in 61 PA
Pitch mix · stuff · HR rating · swing-and-miss · contact
Splits · home/away & batter hand
| HR/9 | HR | Barrel | FB% | K% | ERA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 0.71 | 1 | — | — | 10% | 7.11 |
| Away | 2.53 | 3 | — | — | 24% | 2.53 |
| vs LHB | 1.29 | 2 | 15% | 22% | 16% | — |
| vs RHB | 1.22 | 2 | 15% | 21% | 22% | — |
HR = home runs allowed (season-to-date). ERA isn’t reported by batter hand, and barrel/FB% aren’t available by home/away — those cells show —.
Pitcher summary · vs LHB
Cionel Pérez carries a 1.29 HR/9 and gave up 0 in his last outing (1 over his last 3). Lefties have taken him deep 2 of 4 times (1.6 HR/9 to LHB).
Huascar Brazobán • RHP (NYM)NYM @ CIN | vs CIN3/1 W–L • 2.02 ERA • 30 Ks • 0.95 WHIP0.7 HR/9 • 9% Barrel • 19% FB • 21% K • 2.02 ERA (H 1.45 / A 2.65)▼ Tougher to homer off lately0.74hittability
Huascar Brazobán • RHP (NYM)
NYM @ CIN | vs CIN
3/1 W–L • 2.02 ERA • 30 Ks • 0.95 WHIP
0.7 HR/9 • 9% Barrel • 19% FB • 21% K • 2.02 ERA (H 1.45 / A 2.65)
▼ Tougher to homer off lately
0.74
hittability
Last 3 outings · IP / pitches / HR
▼ Tougher to homer off lately This pitcher is trending the right way — fewer homers.
06/14 1.0 IP · 11 P relief0 HR
06/12 1.2 IP · 19 P relief0 HR
06/07 1.0 IP · 21 P0 HR
Pitches to target · go-deep pitches
The pitches he's given up the most homers on — and the bats most likely to punish them.
vs lefty batsno clear target
Most likely to capitalize: Bleday 26%
vs righty batschange
Most likely to capitalize: Stewart 25%, Suárez 20%, Steer 20%
HR hittability vs a league-average hitter · longer + greener = easier to take deep
vs LHB · 0.6 HR/9 · 0 HR in 70 PA
vs RHB · 1.1 HR/9 · 2 HR in 73 PA
Pitch mix · stuff · HR rating · swing-and-miss · contact
Splits · home/away & batter hand
| HR/9 | HR | Barrel | FB% | K% | ERA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 0.48 | 1 | — | — | 31% | 1.45 |
| Away | 0.53 | 1 | — | — | 13% | 2.65 |
| vs LHB | 0.64 | 0 | 12% | 18% | 18% | — |
| vs RHB | 1.12 | 2 | 10% | 24% | 25% | — |
HR = home runs allowed (season-to-date). ERA isn’t reported by batter hand, and barrel/FB% aren’t available by home/away — those cells show —.
Pitcher summary · vs LHB
Huascar Brazobán carries a 0.73 HR/9.
Devin Williams • RHP (NYM)NYM @ CIN | vs CIN3/2 W–L • 5.01 ERA • 37 Ks • 1.50 WHIP1.1 HR/9 • 15% Barrel • 25% FB • 31% K • 5.01 ERA (H 2.25 / A 7.94)◐ Homer-prone on the year, quieter last 30.70hittability
Devin Williams • RHP (NYM)
NYM @ CIN | vs CIN
3/2 W–L • 5.01 ERA • 37 Ks • 1.50 WHIP
1.1 HR/9 • 15% Barrel • 25% FB • 31% K • 5.01 ERA (H 2.25 / A 7.94)
◐ Homer-prone on the year, quieter last 3
0.70
hittability
Last 3 games · IP / pitches / HR
◐ Homer-prone on the year, quieter last 3 Homer-prone over the full season — the quiet recent stretch is a small sample the model discounts.
06/12 1.1 IP · 33 P0 HR
06/11 1.0 IP · 16 P0 HR
06/07 1.0 IP · 20 P0 HR
Not enough data for this view.
HR hittability vs a league-average hitter · longer + greener = easier to take deep
vs LHB · 1.3 HR/9 · 2 HR in 57 PA
vs RHB · 1.0 HR/9 · 1 HR in 59 PA
Pitch mix · stuff · HR rating · swing-and-miss · contact
Splits · home/away & batter hand
| HR/9 | HR | Barrel | FB% | K% | ERA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 0.00 | 0 | — | — | 35% | 2.25 |
| Away | 1.59 | 2 | — | — | 37% | 7.94 |
| vs LHB | 1.26 | 2 | 14% | 26% | 27% | — |
| vs RHB | 0.96 | 1 | 14% | 22% | 30% | — |
HR = home runs allowed (season-to-date). ERA isn’t reported by batter hand, and barrel/FB% aren’t available by home/away — those cells show —.
Pitcher summary · vs LHB
Devin Williams carries a 1.06 HR/9. He owns a 7.94 ERA on the road.
Pick who he’ll face
Matchup vs Tobias MyersC
Arms like Tobias Myers
Most similar arsenals (velocity, movement, mix): Trey Yesavage, Brandon Young, Tyler Mahle, Simeon Woods Richardson, Albert Suárez, Ryne Nelson.
vs arms like this (since 2025), 0 HR in 12 PA (0.0% · league ~3%).
Matchup vs Tobias MyersA · ×1.13
Arms like Tobias Myers
Most similar arsenals (velocity, movement, mix): Trey Yesavage, Brandon Young, Tyler Mahle, Simeon Woods Richardson, Albert Suárez, Ryne Nelson.
vs arms like this (since 2025), 0 HR in 12 PA (0.0% · league ~3%).
Matchup vs Austin WarrenB · ×1.04
Arms like Austin Warren
Most similar arsenals (velocity, movement, mix): Blake Treinen, Kai-Wei Teng, Eduard Bazardo, Orion Kerkering, Dustin May, Yohan Ramírez.
Matchup vs Luke WeaverA · ×1.17
Arms like Luke Weaver
Most similar arsenals (velocity, movement, mix): Robert Suarez, Freddy Peralta, Bryan Baker, Connor Brogdon, Cole Sulser, Isaac Mattson.
vs arms like this (since 2025), 2 HR in 18 PA (11.1% · league ~3%).
Matchup vs Brooks RaleyB · ×1.00
Arms like Brooks Raley
Most similar arsenals (velocity, movement, mix): Taylor Rogers, Noah Schultz, Sam Moll, Tyler Holton, JoJo Romero, Mason Fluharty.
Matchup vs Jonathan PintaroA · ×1.10
Matchup vs Sean ManaeaB · ×1.09
Arms like Sean Manaea
Most similar arsenals (velocity, movement, mix): PJ Poulin, Bryan Hudson, Bryan King, Jacob Lopez, Andrew Nardi, Jeffrey Springs.
Matchup vs A.J. MinterA · ×1.18
Matchup vs David PetersonB · ×1.09
Arms like David Peterson
Most similar arsenals (velocity, movement, mix): Daniel Lynch IV, Jose Quintana, Parker Messick, DL Hall, Connelly Early, Tim Herrin.
Matchup vs Cionel PérezA · ×1.15
Arms like Cionel Pérez
Most similar arsenals (velocity, movement, mix): David Peterson, DL Hall, Wandy Peralta, Aaron Ashby, Anthony Banda, Gregory Soto.
vs arms like this (since 2025), 0 HR in 19 PA (0.0% · league ~3%).
Matchup vs Huascar BrazobánB · ×1.01
Arms like Huascar Brazobán
Most similar arsenals (velocity, movement, mix): Jonathan Loáisiga, Sandy Alcantara, Walbert Ureña, Colin Holderman, Bradgley Rodriguez, Adrian Houser.
vs arms like this (since 2025), 1 HR in 14 PA (7.1% · league ~3%).
Matchup vs Devin WilliamsA · ×1.15
Arms like Devin Williams
Most similar arsenals (velocity, movement, mix): Logan Henderson, AJ Blubaugh, Connor Seabold, Ron Marinaccio, Joe Ryan, Jacob Webb.
vs arms like this (since 2025), 1 HR in 13 PA (7.7% · league ~3%).
Likelihood-first board. Even the top plays hit ~1-in-5 — most miss by design. Confirm lineups & odds at lock; bet within your means.